northwest electrical distributors 2016 · to 2016, the largest year-over-year increase in led sales...

ANNUAL LIGHTING SURVEY OF NORTHWEST ELECTRICAL DISTRIBUTORS

2016

JULY 2017

Bonneville Power Administration Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance

PREPARED BY: Navigant Consulting Inc., and Cadeo Group

ANNUAL LIGHTING SURVEY OF NORTHWEST ELECTRICAL DISTRIBUTORS 2016 2

Table of Contents

Report Highlights

Report Overview

Report Highlights

Survey Results

LED Lamps and Fixtures

Linear Fluorescent Lamps and LED Tubes

Lighting Controls

High-Intensity Discharge Lamps

Screw-In Lamps

Customized Benchmarking Report for Example Distributor

2

34

5

6

7

7

8

9

grew by 86% from 2015 to 2016, the largest year-over-year increase in LED sales yet.

+86 %

LED UNIT SALES

are growing, with a 50% increase in sales from 2015 to 2016.

+50 %

LINEAR LED FIXTURE SALES

increased dramatically in 2016 and now hold a 20% market share among four-foot T8 lamps.

20 %

LED TUBE UNIT SALES

still dominate lighting unit sales, representing 47% of 2016 unit sales.

47 %

LINEAR FLUORESCENT LAMPS


This report presents the results of the fourth annual BPA and NEEA Northwest Electrical Distributor Lighting Survey. The first three surveys, conducted in 2013, 2014, and 2015, analyzed lighting sales data from 2010-2015. This year 24 Northwest distributors, including seven new participants, submitted their

sales data. Combining these data submissions (2013-2016) with past participants’ data, the research team’s analysis included 33 total distributors. The total sales of these distributors represented 30 percent of the total Northwest non-residential distributor market, depending on the product.

Report Overview

30 %33 2013 - 20162016PARTICIPANTS

2016 NEW PARTICIPANTS

MARKET SHAREREPRESENTAION

TOTALDISTRIBUTORS

YEARS COVERED

24 7

The team, again, worked with NEEA program staff and Evergreen Consulting. Through this coordinated effort, the team reached 24 distributors for the 2016 sales data collection.

The chart shows the mix of participating distributors by relative size, distribution area, and business model, compared to the mix of the population of distributors in the Northwest.

FIGURE 1

Mix of Distributors Submitting Data Compared to the Northwest Distributor Population

SMALL

LARGE

MEDIUM

SAMPLE

POPULATION

Relative Size

0%

100%

25%

75%

50%

Distribution Area

0%

100%

25%

75%

50%

LOCAL

NATIONAL

REGIONAL

SAMPLE

POPULATION

0%

100%

25%

75%

50%

FULL LINE

LIGHTING CONSULTING

MRO & ONLINE

Business Model

SAMPLE

POPULATION

Large - more than 10 branches in the Northwest

Medium - between 5 and 10 branches in the Northwest

Small - less than 5 branches in the Northwest

Lighting consulting distributors focus on energy efficiency products and project-based work. Project-based work includes new construction, renovation, and retrofit sales, which tend to be more efficient than maintenance sales.

Maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) and online distributors may sell only lighting or a mix of product with a focus on maintenance sales.

Full Line distributors sell a variety of electrical products including lighting.

FIGURE 1 Definitions


WA

OR

MT

ID

51%54%

45%

35%29%31%

3%8%10%

10%9%14%

Lamps Shipment

Floorspace

Branches

Figure 2, above, shows lamp shipments by state, along with state shares of total commercial floor space and known distributor branch locations by state for context. Relative to

commercial floor space, sales quantity appears to be largely representative of the region with the majority of sales going to Washington (51%) and Oregon (35%).

FIGURE 2 Distributor Lamp Shipments, Floor Space, and Branches by State: 2016

Linear fluorescent lamps (LFLs), again, accounted for the majority of the sales across the Northwest non-residential lighting market in 2016. LED sales exhibited the largest growth to date increasing from 16 percent of unit sales in 2015 to 28 percent of unit sales in 2016.

FIGURE 3 Percent of Unit Sales by Technology Type, 2013-2016

Survey Results

LED

CFL

HID

2013 2014 2015 2016

LINEAR FLUORESCENT

INCANDESCENT

HALOGEN

0%

100%

25%

75%

50%


LED Lamps and Fixtures

Sales of LED lamps and fixtures in the Northwest continued to boom in 2016. Estimated unit sales almost doubled, growing from approximately 1.3 million unit sales in 2015 to 2.5 million unit sales in 2016. This represented the largest year-over-year increase in LED unit sales to date. The unit sales shown

in Figure 4, and throughout the report, are estimated values based on actual sales data from distributors, including a limited amount of extrapolation adjustments to account for missing data. These values have not been adjusted for non-respondents or other sales channels.

Downlights are one of the fastest growing LED product categories. The market is seeing a shift from CFL Pin-Base lamps to LED alternatives in recent years. This is detailed in Figure 5.

FIGURE 5

FIGURE 4 Estimated LED Unit Sales, 2013-2016

Pin-base Lamp and Fixture Replacement Sales by Technology Type, 2013-2016

2013 2014 2015 2016

LED DOWNLIGHTS FIXTURE

LED DOWNLIGHTS RETROFIT KIT

LED DOWNLIGHTS PIN-BASE LAMP

CFLSINGLE, DOUBLE, TRIPLE TUBE PIN-BASE LAMP

0%

100%

25%

75%

50%

A-Type

379K

Reflectors/Downlights

712K

Outdoor Fixtures218K

LED Tubes874K

Decorative & Track Lighting

100KIndoor Fixtures

201K

20152013 20162014

A-Type

272KReflectors/Downlights

250K

Outdoor Fixtures56K

LED Tubes11K

Decorative & Track Lighting

55KIndoor Fixtures23K



Linear Fluorescent Lamps and LED Tubes

The 4ft T8 linear fluorescent lamp still maintains a large market share and the 32W is the majority product in this sales category. However, 2016 sales showed a dramatic increase of LED Tube (TLED) sales. In 2015 TLEDs made up seven percent of 4ft T8 unit sales compared to 2016 where they made up 20% of unit sales.

Among TLED sales, UL Type A (Plug-and-Play/Direct Replacement) was clearly the market’s preferred product. Its sales overtook UL Type B (Ballast Bypass) sales in 2016. Other TLEDs, including UL Type C, represented less than one percent of 4ft T8s.

2013 2015 20162014T5 4ft FixturesT12 4ft Fixtures

T8 4ft Fixtures

LED Tube 4ft Fixtures

Integrated LED Fixtures

Estimated 4ft T8 Linear Lamp Sales by Type, 2013-2016

FIGURE 6

In the ambient linear application, LED products are replacing linear fluorescent products. This is occurring not only with TLED lamps, but also with LED fixtures. The chart shows that there has been slow but steady growth among LED fixtures over the past four years.

NOTE:Sales are normalized to an average of two

lamps per fixture.

FIGURE 7

Percent Ambient Linear Lamp and Fixture Sales by Type, 2013-2016

0%

100%

25%

75%

50%

4ft T8 Series 800 RW

4ft T8 Series 800 32W

4ft T8 Series 700 32W

LED Tubes UL Type B Ballast Bypass

LED Tubes UL Type A Plug-and-Play / Direct Replacement

1M

2M

3M

4M


The team collected limited data on sales of lighting controls products. However, some distributors were unable to report their controls sales, as these products are sold on a project basis and sometimes cannot be disaggregated from fixture sales. However, the team noted an increase in reported sales of luminaire-level lighting controls products.

These products, which are identified on the Design Lights Consortium’s Qualified Product List for Networked Lighting Controls, are distinct from other lighting control systems because they have sensors and controls embedded within individual fixtures. The chart shows the growth in sales for these products reported by distributors.

The decline in HID lamp sales continued in 2016. Distributors reported HID lamp sales in the Northwest region dropped from 299,000 unit sales in 2015 to 228,000 unit sales in 2016. This also represents a decline in HID share relative to other technologies.

Luminaire Level Lighting Controls

High Intensity Discharge Lamps

FIGURE 9

FIGURE 8

Estimated HID Unit Sales by Technology Type, 2013-2016

Estimated Luminaire Level Lighting Control Product Sales, 2013-2016

NOTE:Because of incomplete data and difficulty in accurately reporting controls sales, these sales are not representative of the market as a whole.

2013

2013

913

4,397

8,665

14,429

2015

2015

2016

2016

2014

2014

0

100k

200k

300k

400k

Metal Halide

Mercury Vapor

High Pressure Sodium

= 900 units


There has been a shift away from inefficient technologies and toward LEDs in the screw-base lamp market. Many of these products are regulated by Federal Standards which

is contributing to this trend. There still is a substantial market share for incandescent, which represents remaining opportunity for further growth in efficient product categories.

Screw-In LampsFIGURE 10

Screw-In Lamp Sales by Type 2013-2016

2013 2015 20162014

Incandescent

30%

Halogen

14%

LED

37%

CFL

19%

Incandescent

39%

Halogen

18%

LED

20%

CFL

23%

Contributors:Developed by Laura Tabor and Ariel Esposito, Navigant Consulting Inc. ; Katie Arquiette and Kate Bushman, Cadeo Group; Andriy Nemchenko, Artisan. Developed for the Bonneville Power Administration Please refer questions to: Ethan Manthey, [email protected], Jessica Aiona, [email protected]

northwest electrical distributors 2016 · to 2016, the largest year-over-year increase in led sales...

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