North-South divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England

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<ul><li><p> first published online 15 May 2009, doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.01117 2010 J. R. Soc. Interface Bruce D. L. FittMichael H. Butterworth, Mikhail A. Semenov, Andrew Barnes, Dominic Moran, Jonathan S. West and crop yields in Scotland and England</p><p>South divide: contrasting impacts of climate change onNorth </p><p>Supplementary data</p><p>l http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/suppl/2009/05/14/rsif.2009.0111.DC1.htm</p><p> "Data Supplement"</p><p>Referenceshttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/7/42/123.full.html#ref-list-1</p><p> This article cites 29 articles, 5 of which can be accessed free</p><p>Erratumhttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/8/54/152.full.html</p><p> correctionappended at the end of this reprint. The erratum is available online at: An erratum has been published for this article, the contents of which has been</p><p>Subject collections</p><p> (109 articles)environmental science (13 articles)biometeorology (323 articles)biomathematics </p><p> Articles on similar topics can be found in the following collections</p><p>Email alerting service hereright-hand corner of the article or click Receive free email alerts when new articles cite this article - sign up in the box at the top</p><p> http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/subscriptions go to: J. R. Soc. InterfaceTo subscribe to </p><p> on October 23, 2014rsif.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from on October 23, 2014rsif.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from on October 23, 2014rsif.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from </p><p>http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/suppl/2009/05/14/rsif.2009.0111.DC1.html http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/7/42/123.full.html#ref-list-1http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/8/54/152.full.pdfhttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/collection/biomathematicshttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/collection/biometeorologyhttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/collection/environmental_sciencehttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/alerts/ctalert?alertType=citedby&amp;addAlert=cited_by&amp;saveAlert=no&amp;cited_by_criteria_resid=royinterface;7/42/123&amp;return_type=article&amp;return_url=http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/7/42/123.full.pdfhttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/subscriptionshttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/</p></li><li><p>J. R. Soc. Interface (2010) 7, 123130</p><p> on October 23, 2014rsif.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from *Author for c</p><p>Electronic sup10.1098/rsif.2</p><p>doi:10.1098/rsif.2009.0111Published online 15 May 2009</p><p>Received 25 MAccepted 8 ANorthSouth divide: contrastingimpacts of climate change on cropyields in Scotland and England</p><p>Michael H. Butterworth1, Mikhail A. Semenov1, Andrew Barnes2,Dominic Moran2, Jonathan S. West1 and Bruce D. L. Fitt1,*</p><p>1Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK2Scottish Agricultural College, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK</p><p>Effects of climate change on productivity of agricultural crops in relation to diseases that attackthem are difficult to predict because they are complex and nonlinear. To investigate thesecropdiseaseclimate interactions, UKCIP02 scenarios predicting UK temperature and rainfallunder high- and low-CO2 emission scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s were combined witha crop-simulation model predicting yield of fungicide-treated winter oilseed rape and with aweather-based regression model predicting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics. The com-bination of climate scenarios and crop model predicted that climate change will increase yield offungicide-treated oilseed rape crops in Scotland by up to 0.5 t ha21 (15%). In contrast, insouthern England the combination of climate scenarios, crop, disease and yield loss models pre-dicted that climate change will increase yield losses from phoma stem canker epidemics to up to50 per cent (1.5 t ha21) and greatly decrease yield of untreated winter oilseed rape. The size oflosses is predicted to be greater for winter oilseed rape cultivars that are susceptible than forthose that are resistant to the phoma stem canker pathogen Leptosphaeria maculans. Suchpredictions illustrate the unexpected, contrasting impacts of aspects of climate change oncropdisease interactions in agricultural systems in different regions.</p><p>Keywords: climate scenarios; crop simulation model;resistance to Leptosphaeria maculans; phoma stem canker; stochastic</p><p>weather generator; weather-based disease forecast model1. INTRODUCTION</p><p>Worldwide climate change is affecting agriculturalcrops (Metz et al. 2007; Stern 2007) and the diseasesthat attack them (Chakraborty 2005; Garrett et al.2006). Changing temperature and rainfall patternscan produce severe crop disease epidemics that threatenfood security (Chakraborty et al. 2000; Anderson et al.2004), especially in subsistence agriculture (Morton2007; Schmidhuber &amp; Tubiello 2007). While muchattention has been given to modelling the predictedimpacts of climate change on crop yields, little researchhas been done into predicting the effects of climatechange on cropdisease interactions. To guide strategicgovernment food security policy and industry planningfor adaptation to climate change, there is a need for adetailed evaluation of future crop production in relationto predicted effects of climate change on both crop yieldand disease severity. Such an evaluation requires out-puts from quantitative models of cropdiseaseclimateinteractions. However, much work on effects of climatechange on crops and their diseases has been qualitativeorrespondence (bruce.fitt@bbsrc.ac.uk).</p><p>plementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/009.0111 or via http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org.</p><p>arch 2009pril 2009 123(Coakley et al. 1999; Anderson et al. 2004) and therehave been few attempts to produce combined cropdiseaseclimate models (Luo et al. 1995).</p><p>The increased concentrations of CO2 associated withclimate change are expected to increase crop yields dueto a beneficial effect on photosynthetic efficiency (Ewertet al. 2002; Semenov 2009). However, these beneficialeffects could be counterbalanced by increases in stress fac-tors that have the opposite effect, such as summer waterstress and heat stress. Winter (autumn-sown) oilseedrape is an important arable crop in the UK, with largeareas grown in England (450 000 ha) and Scotland(400 000 ha) in 2006. Crops are often sown in lateAugust and harvested in mid-July the following year.Most of the oilseed rape is grown in the eastern half ofthe UK because the hilly terrain and lower soil fertilityare often unsuitable for arable crops in the west. Thearea grown is likely to expand, with increasing interestin the production of biodiesel from oilseed rape toreplace fossil fuels. The crop simulation model STICS(Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les CulturesStandard), developed by INRA (France), has been usedto simulate oilseed rape growth and yield (Brisson et al.2003) but assumes that diseases have been controlledwith fungicides and does not account for disease losses.This journal is q 2009 The Royal Society</p><p>mailto:bruce.fitt@bbsrc.ac.ukhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0111http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0111http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0111http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.orghttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.orghttp://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/</p></li><li><p>climate scenarios forUKCIP02 projections</p><p>15 sites</p><p>STICS crop model</p><p>fungicidetreated yields</p><p>figure 2</p><p>yield lossfigures 3 and 4</p><p>interpolation by UKregions</p><p>untreated yields byUK regions</p><p>table 1</p><p>phoma stem cankermodel</p><p>Figure 1. Relationships between different components of themodelling and analysis. (1) Weather data were generated forfive UKCIP02 climate change scenarios (baseline (19601990), 2020LO, 2020HI, 2050LO, 2050HI) for 15 sites overthe UK (Semenov 2007). (2) These weather data wereinputted into an oilseed rape crop growth simulation model,STICS (Brisson et al. 2003) and a weather-based regressionmodel for predicting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics,PASSWORD (Evans et al. 2008). (3) The STICS model wasused to generate yield data for crops treated with fungicidesagainst diseases for each site/climate change scenario(figure 2). A yield loss model was used to estimate yieldlosses from stem canker severity predictions for oilseed rapecultivars that were susceptible (figure 3) or resistant(figure 4) to Leptosphaeria maculans. (4) Fungicide-treatedcrop yield data and yield loss data were interpolated accordingto UK government regions as used in the 2006 DefraAgricultural and Horticultural Survey and combined toestimate untreated crop yields (table 1).</p><p>124 Contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields M. H. Butterworth et al.</p><p> on October 23, 2014rsif.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from The increase in temperature associated with climatechange may increase the severity of crop diseaseepidemics (Evans et al. 2008). The most importantoilseed rape disease in the UK is phoma stem canker(Leptosphaeria maculans), which causes severe losseseach year despite expenditure of more than 12 millionon fungicides (Fitt et al. 2006). Worldwide, the mostsevere epidemics occur in Australia, with itsMediterranean climate (Howlett et al. 2001). Globally,losses from phoma stem canker exceed 500 millionper season (Fitt et al. 2008). Although phoma stemcanker currently causes severe epidemics on winter oil-seed rape in France (latitude 42518 N; Fitt et al.2006) and England (latitude 50558 N), the diseasedoes not cause yield loss further north, in Scotland (lati-tude 55598 N; Evans et al. 2008). Although the initialphoma leaf spotting phase of the disease (West et al.2001) occurs in autumn in all these regions, colder win-ters in Scotland mean that L. maculans is unable tospread along the leaf petiole and colonize the stemrapidly enough to cause damaging cankers (Evanset al. 2008). Predictions about the increase in severityof phoma stem canker epidemics in England andspread of the disease to Scotland as a result of globalwarming were made by combining climate changescenarios with a weather-based regression model forforecasting the severity of epidemics (Evans et al.2008), but these predictions were not linked with pre-dictions of changes in oilseed rape growth and yieldunder changed climate.</p><p>The predicted effects of climate change on severity ofphoma stem canker were less on oilseed rape cultivarswith resistance to L. maculans than on susceptiblecultivars (Evans et al. 2008). Some resistance toL. maculans is temperature-dependent and can operateat 158C but not 258C (Huang et al. 2006). To adapt toclimate change, there is a need to breed oilseed rapewith increased resistance to L. maculans that can oper-ate at the predicted higher temperatures. However,there has been no assessment of the benefit of resistanceto L. maculans, in relation to an analysis of the effectsof climate change on oilseed rape yield and yieldlosses from phoma stem canker. The aim of this paperis to estimate the impact of climate change on oilseedrape across the UK by assessing the effects of climatechange on fungicide-treated yield and yield losses fromphoma stem canker disease for oilseed rape cultivarsdiffering in resistance to L. maculans.2. MATERIAL AND METHODS</p><p>2.1. Climate change scenarios</p><p>Daily site-specific climate scenarios based on theUKCIP02 climate change projections (Semenov 2007)were generated to predict the effects of climatechange on fungicide-treated oilseed rape yield andyield losses from phoma stem canker. These projectionsare based on the HadCM3 global climate model (Collinset al. 2001; Hulme et al. 2002) and global IPCCemission scenarios (Nakicenovic 2000). The LARS-WGstochastic weather generator was used to produce abaseline scenario after it had been calibrated withJ. R. Soc. Interface (2010)observed weather from the baseline period 1960 to1990. Using low (LO) and high (HI) CO2 emission scen-arios, climate scenarios were generated for the UK forthe 2020s and the 2050s, thus producing five simulatedscenarios: baseline, 2020HI, 2050HI, 2020LO and2050LO (Semenov 2007). The values used for the CO2concentration in the UK atmosphere were 334 ppm(baseline), 422 ppm (2020LO), 437 ppm (2020HI),489 ppm (2050LO), 593 ppm (2050HI), taken from theIPCC emission scenarios. Thirty years of daily weatherdata were generated for 15 sites located across the UK(electronic supplementary material, figure 1; Semenov2007). The data generated were daily minimum temp-erature, maximum temperature, rainfall and solarradiation. These weather data were used as the inputs</p><p>http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/</p></li><li><p>yield (t ha1)</p><p>2.602.75(a)</p><p>Contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields M. H. Butterworth et al. 125</p><p> on October 23, 2014rsif.royalsocietypublishing.orgDownloaded from into the models for predicting fungicide-treated winteroilseed rape growth and yield (STICS, Brisson et al.2003) and the severity of phoma stem canker disease(PASSWORD, Evans et al. 2008) (figure 1).(b)</p><p>(d)</p><p>(c)</p><p>(e)</p><p>2.90</p><p>3.05</p><p>3.20</p><p>3.35</p><p>3.50</p><p>3.65</p><p>Figure 2. Predicted yield of oilseed rape (treated againstdiseases). Predicted yields (t ha21) of fungicide-treatedwinter oilseed rape for (a) baseline, (b) 2020LO, (c) 2020HI,(d) 2050LO and (e) 2050HI climates. The maps are interp-olated from yield data generated for 15 UK sites using theSTICS crop growth model. Winter oilseed rape crops are gen-erally grown in the eastern halves of England and Scotland;less fertile and mountainous areas in the west are unsuitablefor arable crops.2.2. Oilseed rape yield predictions</p><p>The STICS model was developed at INRA-Avignon,France and designed to simulate the development ofseveral crops, including their water and nitrogen bal-ances (Brisson et al. 2002, 2003). The simulated cropgrowth is dependent on the amount of solar radiationand the accumulated thermal time (8C-days) andaffected by stress indices (e.g. heat stress, water stressor nitrogen stress) decreasing crop growth. The modelis divided into modules, with one for the physiologicalinteractions of above-ground plant parts with theenvironment and another for soil and below-groundplant interactions. In allowing the user to alter a widerange of parameters, STICS can produce robust resultsat the local scale (Brisson et al. 2003). STICS modelversion 6.2 (http://www.avignon.inra.fr/stics) wasused to simulate yield of winter (autumn-sown) oilseedrape for each of the 15 sites for fungicide-treated crops.The inputs into the model were the CO2 concentrationsand the daily site-specific weather data generated byLARS-WG for the five climate scenarios. These inputswere used to predict site-specific yields. Median valuesof simulated yields for 30 years were used since the pre-dicted yields from the STICS model were not normallydistributed.</p><p>The model was originally calibrated for the Frenchcultivars of winter oilseed rape Goeland, Olphi andPollen. Since most oilseed rape cultivars grown commer-cially in the UK are bred in France or Germany, theSTICS parameter values calibrated for the French...</p></li></ul>

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