noestimates @ miniiad
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#noestimateswhy going against the tide
cannot bring you anything good!
[email protected]@iacoware
Massimo Iacolarelinkedin
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Massimo Iacolare
co-founder of the awesome
freelance
.net and js expert
love shipping features
love making users happy
quality addicted
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Estimating sucks!
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Estimating sucks!End of story
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Estimating sucks!End of story
Questions?
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#noestimates‣Woody Zuill started the hashtag on twitter
‣nothing new, just a new (bigger) wave
‣lot of buzz, lately
If you found estimates bring no value what would you do?
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nitpicker corner
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nitpicker corner
#noestimates it’s an invitation, a challenge
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nitpicker corner
#noestimates it’s an invitation, a challenge
…it doesn’t literally mean never use estimates!The trouble with #noestimates
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Why so interested?
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Software development
…and why estimating (really) sucks!
Part 1
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no best practices
social interactions
learning activityintegration
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non deterministic
no best practices
social interactions
learning activityintegration
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Cynefin framework
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Cynefin framework
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Cynefin framework
Predictable
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Cynefin framework
Emergent Predictable
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ok, understood!
lets get back to estimates
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Unreliable: adj
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Unreliable: adjnot able to berelied upon,untrustwhorty
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Asked at the beginning of a project
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Asked at the beginning of a project
Someone said cone of uncertainty?
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Asked at the beginning of a project
Someone said cone of uncertainty?pr
ojec
t kno
wle
dge
time
cone of uncertainty
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Cost of a feature =
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Cost of a feature =
Essential complexity +
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Cost of a feature =
Essential complexity
Accidental complexity+
from “No silver bullet” Fred Brooks, 1995
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How much time do you need to add “XYZ”?
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How much time do you need to add “XYZ”?
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Cognitive biases
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Cognitive biasesOptimism bias
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Cognitive biasesOptimism bias
Anchoring bias
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Cognitive biasesOptimism bias
Anchoring biasLoss aversion
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Cognitive biasesOptimism bias
Anchoring bias
Availability bias
Selective perception
Loss aversion
List of cognitive biases
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My point is…if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work… well “kind of”
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My point is…if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work… well “kind of”
Worth the effort?
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My point is…if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work… well “kind of”
Worth the effort?Are they a a mean or a goal?
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Part 2
Why?
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Historical reasons
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Historical reasons
management techniques derived from traditional
businesses
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Management science’s impossible quest: in search of predictability
The impossible quest for
predictability
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Prioritization
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Prioritizationestimates == prioritise on costs
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Prioritizationestimates == prioritise on costs
learning should be your first priority
Introducing deliberate discovery
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Delivery date
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Delivery dateorder-of-magnitude
estimates are enough
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Delivery dateorder-of-magnitude
estimates are enough
fixed-time fixed-budget more common and useful
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Part 3
the
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Few assumptions
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Few assumptions‣ Relevant parts sits in the
Complex Domain
‣ Unpredictable business
‣ Detailed planning won’t save us
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Few assumptions‣ Relevant parts sits in the
Complex Domain
‣ Unpredictable business
‣ Detailed planning won’t save us
Few ideas…
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Establish a tight feedback loop
at all levels: tdd, continuous delivery, customer
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Establish a tight feedback loop
at all levels: tdd, continuous delivery, customer
only thing that works in emergent domains
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Just enough planning
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Just enough planningJust-in-time planning
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Just enough planningJust-in-time planning
context changed
assumptions debunkedmore knowledge
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Just enough planningJust-in-time planning
context changed
assumptions debunkedmore knowledge
explore new options
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Iterate like there is no tomorrow
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Iterate like there is no tomorrow
working in iterations doesn’t mean iterating
Embrace uncertainty
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Become a master in slicing scope
Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout
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Become a master in slicing scope
you’ll meet deadlines too!
Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout
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estimate lesscode more
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I stand on the shoulders of giantsWoody Zuill blog
Vasco Duarte blog
Neil Killick blog
AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part1 - ITA
AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part2 - ITA
Estimation is the root of most software project failures
Stop using story points
The perils of estimation
…and many, many more. Thank you all!