#noestimates does not mean "no estimates!" - agile cambridge 2015
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 3: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Why do we es5mate?
Analysis of requirements Priori5sa5on
Predic5on Blame!
![Page 5: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Warren Ellis, author & humanist
“I try not to get involved in the business of predic'on.
It's a quick way to look like an idiot.”
![Page 10: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
How long is a piece of string?
![Page 11: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
![Page 12: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
120 cm 100 cm 70 cm 60 cm 40 cm
E. D. C. A. B.
![Page 13: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
... these studies which have for a few years now given rise to the claim that "research shows that people are be)er at rela5ve than absolute es5ma5on" do not in fact seem to square with that claim.
This doesn't entai l that re la5ve es5ma5on doesn't work -‐ only that it is not proven.
h)p://guide.agilealliance.org/guide/rela5ve.html
![Page 14: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
![Page 15: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
12 cm 10 cm 7 cm 6 cm 4 cm
E. D. C. A. B.
![Page 16: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
h)ps://es5ma5on.lunarlogic.io/assets/cards-‐range-‐8fc41b2e3fd282125f4602a712020204.png
![Page 17: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
![Page 19: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Resource alloca5on
Release planning
How much?
When?
![Page 20: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
winnipegagilist.blogspot.com
![Page 21: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
![Page 22: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
![Page 23: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
![Page 26: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Probabilis5c planning
...uses historical data or a model of expected capability to build a
forecast of the project outcome
![Page 30: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
© C
lays
now
Lim
ited
2014
Cost of delay
http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/
... is a way of communicating the impact of time on value.
![Page 31: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
“... rather than trying to improve the ini>al project es>mates, the budgets and deadlines must be set based on the value of delivery (not the cost).”
h)p://www.gilb.com/dl460
Es5ma5on: A Paradigm Shig Toward Dynamic Design-‐to-‐Cost
and Radical Management
![Page 33: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Shouty!
h)ps://github.com/cucumber-‐ltd/shouty.net
![Page 34: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
"We aren't really bad at es5ma5ng.
What we are really bad at is enumera5ng all the assump5ons that lie behind our es5mates."
-‐Paul Rook
![Page 37: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Woody Zuill
h)p://www.agileroots.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/WoodyZuill_2013-‐150x168.png
![Page 38: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
BANG HEAD HERE
Observed Cycle
h)p://ajcp.ascpjournals.org/content/134/3/361/F1.large.jpg
![Page 39: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Vasco Duarte
h)p://2013.itakeunconf.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/03/vasco-‐duarte-‐300x400.jpg
![Page 40: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
h)ps://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrink_200_200/p/7/000/2c4/38d/0ea9e25.jpg
Neil Killick
![Page 41: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.ioh)p://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1176417752/Headshot_2.jpg
Glen Alleman
![Page 42: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
The idea behind the #NoEs5mates approach to sogware development
isn't to eliminate es:mates
[it is] to explore other ways to solve problems
without specifically asking, 'How long will it take?'
h)p://www.cio.com/ar5cle/2381167/agile-‐development/-‐no-‐es5mates-‐in-‐ac5on-‐5-‐ways-‐to-‐rethink-‐sogware-‐projects.html
![Page 43: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Giving sogware projects an API ... [is] about
“yes, yes, yes”.
h)p://xprogramming.com/ar5cles/ar5facts-‐are-‐not-‐the-‐problem/
![Page 44: #NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022021918/589ae3c41a28abee708b56b9/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Ask yourself whether the value you get from es5mates jus5fies the cost of producing them.
#NoEs:mates is the banner under which people look for alterna:ve ways
of gerng the benefits that they want,
without the waste that they don’t.
Finally....