negotiation and the dynamical negotiation network model jochemczyk_lukasz
TRANSCRIPT
Sustaining Peace
Negotiation and the Dynamical Negotiation Network Model
systems, applications, interventions
Łukasz Jochemczyk
This project was funded in the framework of the Polish National Science Center grant No. 2011/01/D/HS6/02264
Instead of introduction
● Who am I?– Psychologist University of Warsaw→– Trained in complex systems– Trained in negotiation and mediation– Research on Negotiation, Conflict, NIMBY, Social Dilemmas,
Risk, Time Perspectives ...
● Why I am here?– Understanding communication in negotiation
● Communication result→● Procedural / Distributive satisfaction
● What I bring with me?– Dynamical Negotiation Networks (Jochemczyk & Nowak, 2010)
Introductory questions
● Negotiations– Negotiation training– Negotiation practice (eg negotiating pocket money with
parents)– What does it mean to win in negotiation
● Win-win● Sustainable solution
● Complex systems– Complicated vs complex
● Networks– Structure (in-degree, out-degree, betweenness, closeness)
● Fractal geometry
Complicated vs complex
Fractal geometry
Workshop Plan
● About the Dynamical Negotiation Networks model
● Exercise Build your own network→● What can we infer from the model● Summary
Sharedreality
Negotiation communication←
Dynamical Negotiation Network(Jochemczyk & Nowak, 2010)
● Negotiation process in which parties are constructing →a network – shared representation of a problem
● The network is gradually constructed during the negotiation process– Nodes objects / arguments→– Links relations between objects / arguments→
● Changes in one part changes in other parts→● The outcome depends on:
– Dynamics of the network construction – Changes in the network– Structure of the network
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Productquality
Seller'spressures
Elements:
● Parties' representation „Pressures” →
● Facts / Objects Nodes→
● Relations links→
+–
Interactions in the network
PriceProductquality
Goodreason
NCAA quality
Playing in the USA
Player's quality
Player's age
Player's experience
President's pressures
Agent'spressures
Example – Negotiation of a basketball player's contract
Playing professionally
President's pressures
Agent'spressures
Player's quality
Player's age
Player's experience
Playing in the USA
NCAA quality
Club quality
Experience in the 1'st league
Players' experience
Quality of the sporting
facilities
Foreign players in the club
Player's pay190Player’s 'foreignness’
Player’s development possibilities
150120
Competitive offer
Sponsor
Average league
player’s pay
180170
Network structure● Sources Out-degree←● Sinks In-degree←● Bridges In-betweenness←● Direct influence link to outcome←
– Sponsor● Feedback loop
– Player's quality Player's development →possibilities”
In degreeOut degree
Price
Betweenness
In degree
Out degree
Source
Source
Sink
Sink
Bridge
Exercise1) Read carefully
2) Highlight nodes in the text of the conversation
3) Write down names of the nodes on the post-its
4) Try to play with them arrange them in a →network according to your understanding of the conversation
1) If you are not satisfied with current arrangement →1)Discuss it
2)Try to rearrange it againThink what is the cause and what is the result(which node influences and which node is influenced)
Analysis
● Which nodes / links are crucial for the outcome in your network?
● What to add / change in the network?● What could be done if you are stuck?
The network – my interpretation
How to improve negotiate negotiation?
● Start early● Use your “Sources” ● Build good “Bridge(s)”● Instead of fighting for “Sinks” discuss
consequences● Use the whole network throughout the
negotiation
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
Me
an fi
nal valu
es o
f ou
t-de
gre
e
of th
e in
trod
uce
d n
od
es
2,5
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Introduction of key elements Out-degree
time
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5Me
an fi
nal valu
es o
f in-d
eg
r ee
of
the
intro
du
ced
no
de
s
Introduction of key elements In – degree
time
Introduction of key elements Betweenness
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
5,0E-4
1,0E-3
1,5E-3
2,0E-3
2,5E-3
Me
an fi
nal valu
es o
f in-b
etw
ee
nn
ess
of th
e in
trod
uce
d n
od
es
time
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
0,010
0,015
0,020
0,025
0,030
0,035
0,040Me
an fi
nal valu
es o
f ou
t-close
ne
ss o
f the
intro
du
ced
no
de
s
Distance from the network center: Out-Closeness
time
In-Closeness
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation Stage
0,022
0,023
0,024
0,025
0,026
0,027
0,028
0,029M
ean
Fin
al I
n -
Clo
sen
ess
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
10
20
30
40
50
Nu
mb
er o
f intro
du
ced
new
no
de
s
Initial disagreement
Low
High
Network construction dynamics - Nodes
Network construction dynamics - Links
1 2 3 4 5
20
30
40
50
60Nu
mb
er o
intro
du
ced
new
link
s
Initial disagreement
Low
High
Negotiation stage
Negotiators' High vs Low rigidity
←Low rigidity
High rigidity →
Network density in time
1 2 3 4 5
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40 Initial conflict
LowHigh
Me
an in
/ou
t –de
gre
e
Negotiation stage
High Variability Nodes (HVN)
● Increase both their in-degree and out-degree throughout the whole negotiation.
● The more HVN in negotiation the better result (both win-win & sustainable)
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HVN Out-Degree→Number of changes of Out-Degree in stages following an introduction
115
132 1 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3 4
Number of changes
Nu
mb
er
of
no
des
th
at c
ha
ng
e
a g
iven
nu
mb
er o
f ti
mes
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HVN In–Degree→
121
110 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3
Number of changes
Nu
mb
er o
f n
od
es
tha
t ch
an
ge
g
ive
n n
um
be
r o
f ti
me
sNumber of changes of In-Degree in stages following an introduction
Network extraction process1) Competent judges
● Stages:
1)Identifying nodes ● Combining nodes between the judges (Rule “2 of 3”)
2)Naming nodes
3)Identifying connections & indicating node values● Combining connections between the judges (Rule “2 of 3”)
4)Indicating connection strengths● Designated computer program (available around
this summer)
2) Do it on your own● Designated computer program (expected this
fall)
Conclusions
What can we get from DNN model?● See where is the conflict ● Disentangle the conflict● Provide on which elements focus the
communication in order to negotiate constructively
● What to do in order to reach win-win solution
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Readings
● Jochemczyk, L. W., & Nowak, A. (2010). Constructing a Network of Shared Agreement: A Model of Communication Processes in Negotiations. Group Decision and Negotiation, 19(6), 591–620. doi:10.1007/s10726-009-9165-y
● Jochemczyk, L. W., Pietrzak, J., Zawadzka, A. (in review). Finding Common Ground: Dynamical Negotiation Networks.
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Questions / Discussion
