TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

NEBRASKA WORKFORCE

MARCH 2018 ISSUE | NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

TRENDS

Inside this Issue:

Occupational Employment Statistics: Past, Present and FutureLearn about the Occupation Employment Statistics program and how occupational codes are assigned.

Fast Facts: Nebraska Statehood DayExplore data about our state.

Map Facts: Wages of Farmworkers and LaborersSee how the wages of Nebraska farmworkers and laborers compare with the rest of the nation.

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Contents

3 Occupational Employment Statistics: Past, Present and FutureLearn about the Occupational Employment Statistics program and how occupational codes are assigned.

6 Fast Facts: Nebraska Statehood Day Explore data about our state.

8 Map Facts: Wages of Farmworkers and Laborers See how the wages of Nebraska farmworkers and laborers compare with the rest of the nation.

9 Openings and Expansions

10 Economic IndicatorsReview data trends from this month's featured economic indicator: Consumer Sentiment Index.

Credits

Commissioner of LaborJohn H. Albin

LMI Administrator Phil Baker

Editors Scott HunzekerGrace JohnsonJennifer Gildersleeve

Graphic DesignerBrittney Lippincott

Helpful LinksLabor Market Publications

Nebraska INFOlink - Employment Data

Previous Issues

NEworks.nebraska.gov

Reader Feedback Survey

Equal Opportunity Employer/Program. TDD: 1.800.833.7352Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.

Nebraska Workforce Trends is published by the Nebraska Department of Labor - Labor Market Information in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3

Occupational Employment Statistics: Past, Present and FutureAndrew Bouwens, Research Analyst

The Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program provides information on employment and wages for hundreds of occupations. Data is gathered for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from semi-annual surveys of non-farm establishments for all full-time and part-time employees conducted by state agencies. Surveys are conducted twice a year to take a snapshot of the state’s economy at different points in time. The year is split into two survey panels; one in May and the other in November. Both survey panels ask employers to provide information on their employment on the 12th of that month so states can collect job titles and wages for all employees during the same payroll period.

The OES Process

The survey materials used to gather OES data are produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The sample of establishments surveyed is selected from those reporting unemployment insurance in each state. Sampled areas include establishments in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in every state, across all surveyed industries and varying businesses sizes. Sample sizes vary by state. In Nebraska, an average panel consists of around 1,800 businesses or 3,600 businesses in a calendar year.

To begin a panel, a state analyst mails out a pre-notification letter to the majority of selected establishments and makes phone calls to businesses in the panel to confirm the appropriate contact information for that business. This process is meant to speed up the collection process times and make sure the reports are getting to the right person and department of an establishment. After a business receives the information requesting their participation in the survey, they have multiple ways of reporting the data. Establishments can respond to surveys by uploading an Excel file to a secure website, or by fax, phone, or mail.

A sample survey form is above. Once data is received, the establishment’s identity is hidden and linked to a general location. A state analyst then will take the information provided and give each reported job title a Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code based on work performed.

The Standard Occupational Codes are broken into 23 different major groups from management positions to military occupations, covering all non-farm establishments across Nebraska. The 23 major groups then break down into minor groups for finer detail. Analysts then give each listed title the correct occupation codes. After the analyst has assigned an occupation code to the job title, a wage code based on the wage provided (as seen in example on page 3) is also assigned. In cases where establishments do not respond, analysts follow up by telephone or email. Once the data is collected and entered, files are sent to be reviewed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for accuracy.

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After that, a file is sent to the states, with suggestions, corrections and further direction to clear up any discrepancies.

Publishing the Data

Each year, the Nebraska Department of Labor publishes employment and wage information by occupation based on the OES survey. This information is used for different types of requests from schools to economic developers and even businesses looking to move into a particular area. All wages are updated quarterly using the Employment Cost Index (ECI) factors, which are based on the annual data release; employment estimates are not changed each quarter. For example, if you look up 4th quarter 2017 data, that information is based on the May 2016 Occupation Employment Statistics surveys.1

OES occupation and wage data for the most recent quarter available can be viewed on the NEworks website at http://neworks.nebraska.gov/oeswage. An example for entry level, median, and experienced wages for teacher assistants is shown below. Other OES information, such as wages by location, is also available on NEworks.2 OES data is also available online at http://neblswages.nwd.ne.gov/eds.php. This site includes access to occupational employment and wages within different industries as well as historical wage estimates that are not available on the NEworks site.

Quarterly Occupational Wage Employment and Annual Wage Data, Teacher Assistants in Nebraska, Q4 2017

Rate Type/ Statistical Type

Entry Level Median Experienced

Annual wage or salary $21,807 $25,209 $27,521

Hourly Wage N/A N/A N/ASource: Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market Information, Occupation Employment Statistics.

Current SOC Coding Process

%

Analysts receive data from surveys

Analysts receive and compile data into

spreadsheet

File is uploaded to auto-coder

Auto-coder generates report with two codes per

job title and their probability scores

Analysts receive report and assign

codes

Analysts assign codes to each job

title based on survey

information.

Preliminary list of codes is sent to

regional & national offices for review

Analysts implement feedback/revisions from

regional & national offices

The Auto-Coder

This year is gearing up to be an exciting time for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as they are moving towards a greater focus in uniform coding consistency across all states. In early 2018, states began participating in uploading files to the auto-coder, and in November will begin implementing the new 2018 Standard Occupation Classification codes.

The auto-coder is a process in which states upload Microsoft Excel files and receive potential occupational codes back to review. States have been training the auto-coder for several years using the programs provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics for occupational coding and data entry, then uploading files to the national database and sending files to regional and national offices. This process enables the auto-coder to learn different occupations and job titles along with all the abbreviations and acronyms that are provided from the states through the OES surveys.

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SOC Coding Process Using Auto-Coder

%

Analysts receive data from surveys

Analysts receive and compile data into

spreadsheet

File is uploaded to auto-coder

Auto-coder generates report with two codes per

job title and their probability scores

Analysts receive report and assign

codes

Analysts assign codes to each job

title based on survey

information.

Preliminary list of codes is sent to

regional & national offices for review

Analysts implement feedback/revisions from

regional & national offices

The national office then takes those files that they have received and loads them through a process called auto-batching where the software learns reported job titles over time in a particular industry based on submitted files from the states.

When an analyst receives a file back from the auto-coder, there are two codes provided with a calculated probability score. State analysts then look at all codes returned and make sure that every code provided is the correct occupation code for that corresponding industry and business. By this training process, the accuracy of the auto-coder should lead to a greater consistency in occupational coding across different states. However, the process is still in its infancy at this time and all data is manually reviewed for accuracy.

2018 Standard Occupation Classification Codes

In November of 2018, the BLS will release a new batch of Standard Occupational Codes for the first time in 9 years. The 2018 SOC system will contain 867 detailed occupations, a gain of 27 detailed occupations from 2010. In the new 2018 system, a total of 391 occupations will remain unchanged. About 355 occupations will have a definition change, 131 will have a title change and 115 will have a code change, leaving about 88% of all codes unchanged.3

Many of these changes will be in the computer and mathematical and healthcare practitioners groups. These code changes will lead to even greater accuracy pinpointing occupations for more specific occupational profiles and clearer data.

As job structures, staffing patterns and industries change, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is trying to stay on top of getting new occupation titles updated, along with finer detail in breakouts of previously clumped together occupations, to make sure that users of our data can have the information and quality statistics they need.

Sources:1. Nebraska Department of Labor.http://neblswages.nwd.ne.gov/

2. Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market Information, Occupation Employment Statistics. http://neworks.nebraska.gov/oeswage

3. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor https://www.bls.gov/soc/2018/#crosswalks

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Fast Facts

Nebraska Statehood DayJodie Meyer, Research Analyst

Graphic adapted from NebraskaStudies.org

Nebraska Territory

Nebraska, 1867Graphic adapted from

NebraskaStudies.org

Date of Statehood - March 1, 1867

Population

Nebraska Territory, 1860: 28,841

Nebraska (state), 1870: 122,993

Nebraska - July 1, 2017: 1,920,076

Most Populated County

Douglas County, 1860: 4,328 (15 percent of territory population)

Douglas County, 1870: 19,982 (16.2 percent of state population)

Douglas County, 2016: 554,995 (29.1 percent of state population)

Demographic Statistics, 2016

Population by Gender

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$36.12

$21.74

$43.79

Computer Network Architects

Statewide Average, All Industries

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

49.8%Male

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$36.12

$21.74

$43.79

Computer Network Architects

Statewide Average, All Industries

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

50.2%Female

Population by Age

75.1% Population age 18 and older

15 % Population age 65 and older

36.3 Median age in Nebraska

Nebraska Population by Race, 2016

Race 2016 Population Estimate PercentWhite 1,674,863 87.8%Black or African American 89,879 4.7%American Indian and Alaska Native 15,865 0.8%Asian 41,548 2.2%Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 1,227 0.1%Some other race 38,348 2.0%Two or more races 45,386 2.4%

TABLE OF CONTENTS 7

Nebraska Rankings

Graphic adapted from NebraskaStudies.org

Nebraska Territory

Nebraska, 1867

December 2017 Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 4th lowest in U.S. at 2.7

Percentage of People 16 to 64 years who are in the labor force, including armed forces: 3rd at 80.9 percent

Occupation and Industry Statistics

Largest

Occupation, 4th Quarter 2017

Retail Salespersons29,780 employed

Industry, 2nd Quarter 2017

Educational Services90,999 avg. employment

Number of Establishments (Industry) 2nd Quarter 2017

Social Assistance8,622 establishments

Highest paying

Occupation, 2nd Quarter 2017

Orthodontists$149.33/hr (average)

Average Weekly Wages (Industry) 2nd Quarter 2017

Utilities$1,811/week

Sources:1. http://www.history.com/topics/us-states/nebraska

2. Drozd, David J. and Deichert, Jerry, "Nebraska Historical Population Report" (2007). Publications since 2000. Paper 37. http://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/cparpublications/37

3. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Release Dates: December 2017

4. U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Tables: B01003, DP05, R2301, S1501

5. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, December 2017 preliminary data, retrieved February 15th, 2018, https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

6. Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market Information, Occupational Employment Statistics, 4th Quarter 2017 data, Produced February 2018

7. Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market Information, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2nd Quarter 2017 data, retrieved February 15th, 2018, neworks.nebraska.gov

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Map Facts

Wages of Farmworkers and LaborersJennifer Gildersleeve, Research Analyst

Annual Mean Wage of Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery and Greenhouse, May 2016

TX

NV

CA

MT

WY

NMAZ

ND

CO

OR

UT

MNID

KS

NE

SD

MS

LA

OK

MO

WA

TN

GA

IA

WI

AR

AL

IL

NC

NY

PA

MI

OH

KYVA

IN

ME

SC

FL

WV

VTNHMA

CT

NJ

DE

MD

PR

AK

HI

Annual Mean Wage

$19,330 - $22,440

$22,810 - $25,870

$26,020 - $27,640

$27,770 - $33,290

AK

HI

Annual Mean Wage

$19,330 - $22,440

$22,810 - $25,870

$26,020 - $27,640

$27,770 - $33,290

AK

HI

Annual Mean Wage

$19,330 - $22,440

$22,810 - $25,870

$26,020 - $27,640

$27,770 - $33,290

Farmworkers and laborers manually plant, cultivate, and harvest fruits, nuts, vegetables, and field crops. They may also clean, grade, pack and load harvested products, repair fences and farm buildings, or participate in irrigation activiteis. Common industries employing those in this

occupation include support activities for crop production, miscellaneous nondurable goods merchant wholesalers, and lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores. There were an estimated 273,450 workers employed in this occupation in May of 2016 across the country, with an estimated 800 employed in Nebraska. The average hourly wage nationwide was $11.45. The average annual wage is calculated by multiplying the average hourly wage by 2,080 hours. Nationwide, the average annual wage for this occupation was $23,820. The map above displays the average annual wage for this occupation by state in May of 2016.1 (Continued on next page)

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In May of 2016, Nebraska was the top paying state in the country for this occupation, with an annual mean wage of $33,290—nearly $10,000 more than the national average. Other top-paying states in this occupation included

Illinois, Nevada, Alaska, and Delaware, with annual wages ranging from $29,340-$30,930. Grand Island, Neb. had the second highest annual mean wage for a metropolitan area at $41,480 (this represents an hourly wage of $19.94). There were an estimated 150 workers in this occupation in the Grand Island area in May of 2016. More information on this occupation is available on the Bureau of

Labor Statistics website.

Source:1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics. Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery and Greenhouse. Updated March 2017.

https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes452092.htm

Openings & Expansions | January*Kermit Spade, Research Analyst

Business Category Business Name Location

OTHER

Retail/Sales

Adorned Bridal Lincoln

OTHER

Food & Entertainment

Country Cookin' (relocation) BeatriceFresh Thyme Grand Island

Flanders Foods (expansion, 30-50 jobs) HastingsMcDonald's (new location) North Platte/Lexington

OTHER

Healthcare

Arbor Psychiatric and Wellness Center Beatrice

OTHER

Business Services

Sandler Training Omaha

No Coast Business Advisors Omaha

OTHER McCook Mechanical Services McCook

*Openings and expansions listed are a sampling of activity reported for that month. Some activity may have occurred outside the month. If you have an opening or

expansion to report, contact us at LMI_NE@nebraska.gov.

Sources:Lincoln Chamber of Commerce, Strictly Business Magazine, Nebraska Department of Labor

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Economic Indicators Consumer Sentiment IndexKermit Spade, Research Analyst

Consumer Sentiment Index

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Consumer Sentiment Index

Recessions Index of Consumer Sentiment

Source: The University of Michigan. Survey of Consumers. umich.edu. [Online] 2 2018. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Consumer Sentiment Index

Recessions Index of Consumer Sentiment

Source: The University of Michigan. Survey of Consumers. umich.edu. [Online] 2 2018. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

In each new issue of Trends, the Economic Indicators section will feature a chart or graph focused on one of the economic indicators listed in the table on the next page. This month, we'll be focusing on the Consumer Sentiment Index.

According to the University of Michigan, "The Surveys of Consumers pioneered the development of measures of consumer confidence, and remains the pacesetter in the use of the data for understanding the important influence of consumer spending and saving decisions on the course of the national economy. The surveys have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future of the national economy. The data is widely used by a broad range of business firms, financial institutions, and federal agencies. The Index of Consumer Expectations is an official component of the Index of Leading Indicators developed by the U.S. Department of Commerce." 1

Source: The University of Michigan. Survey of Consumers. umich.edu. [Online] 2 2018. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Source: 1. The University of Michigan. Survey of Consumers. umich.edu. [Online] 1 2016. http://www.press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/about_survey

TABLE OF CONTENTS 11

Change Over Last Quarter/MonthMetric Current Time

PeriodUnited States

Midwest Region

Nebraska

Average Weekly Manufacturing Hours January, 2018 +/-0.0 - +0.8*

Initial Unemployment Claims January, 2018 +1.5% - -14.5%

Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for Consumer Goods December, 2017 +0.4% - -

ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index© January, 2018 -3.0% - -

Value of Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft December, 2017 -0.3% - -

S&P 500© January, 2018 +4.7% - -

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate January, 2018 +1.2% - -

University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment Index January, 2018 -0.2% - -

Consumer Price Index, not seasonally adjusted January, 2018 +0.5% +0.6% -

Employment Cost Index 4th Quarter, 2017 +0.6% - -

Producer Price Index: All Commodities December, 2017 +0.3% - -

Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted January, 2018 +/-0.0% -0.1%* +/-0.0%*

Real GDP, billions of chained 2009 dollars 4th Quarter, 2017 +2.6% - -

Net Taxable Sales November, 2017 - - +1.6%

Barrel of Crude Oil, WTI-Cushing, Spot Price December, 2017 +$1.24 - -

Balance on Current Account (millions of dollars) 3rd Quarter, 2017 -19.2%

Sources:1. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Customized Tables; State and Area Employment, Hours and Earnings. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Online] http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?sm.

2. US. Employment and Training Administration. 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IC4WSA.

3. —. Initial Claims in Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEICLAIMS.

4. US. Bureau of the Census. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ACOGNO.

5. Institute for Supply Management. ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index©. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NAPMNOI.

6. US. Bureau of the Census. Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEWORDER.

7. S&P Dow Jones Indicies LLC. S&P 500©. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SP500.

8. Federal Reserve Bank of Philidelphia. Leading Index for the United States. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USSLIND.

9. —. Leading Index for Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NESLIND.

10. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate. [Online] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/T10YFF.

11. Survey Research Center, University of Michigan. Survey of Consumers. University of Michigan. [Online] http://www.press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/press_release.

12. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCNS.

13. —. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All items in Midwest urban. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CUUR0200SA0.

14. —. Employment Cost Index. Customized Tables. [Online] http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?ci.

15. —. Producer Price Index for All Commodities. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PPIACO.

16. —. Civilian Unemployment Rate. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE.

17. —. Unemployment Rate in Midwest Census Region. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMWRUR.

18. —. Unemployment Rate in Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEUR.

19. U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real Gross Domestic Product. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPC1.

20. Nebraska Department of Revenue. Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax Collections. Nebraska Department of Revenue. [Online] http://www.revenue.nebraska.gov/research/net_taxable_sales/sales_14/2014_non-mv.html.

21. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MCOILWTICO.

22. U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Balance of Payments on the Current Account. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IEABC.

Nebraska Department of LaborLabor Market Information

550 S. 16th StreetLincoln NE 68508

PHONE 800-876-1377lmi_ne@nebraska.gov

Photo: 123RF.com. Kostic Dusan.