TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

NEBRASKA WORKFORCE

TRENDSNOVEMBER 2018 ISSUE | NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

"Get to Work!" Commuting Patterns in Nebraska

Map Facts: Veterans Day

Labor Availability Study Spotlight: Expansion Issues and Reasons for Difficulty Hiring by Industry

Inside this Issue:

2

Contents

Photo: 123RF.com. Kaspars Grinvalds.

CreditsCommissionerJohn H. Albin LMI Administrator Phil Baker

Editors Rachel StevensGrace Johnson Scott Hunzeker

Graphic DesignerBrittney Lippincott

Cover Photo by Julie Johnson on UnsplashFeature Articles

4

15

"Get to Work!" Commuting Patterns in Nebraska

Labor Availability Study Spotlight Expansion Issues and Reasons for Difficulty Hiring by Industry

Photo: 123RF.com. Dzianis Apolka.

3 Openings and Expansions

13

Map Facts: Veterans Day20

Fast Facts: Retail Trade

22 Employment Data

24 Economic Indicators

Helpful Links

Labor Market Publications

Previous Issues

NEworks.nebraska.gov

Reader Feedback Survey

Equal Opportunity Employer/Program. TDD: 1.800.833.7352

Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.

Nebraska Workforce Trends is published by the Nebraska Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3

Openings & Expansions | SeptemberKermit Spade, Research Analyst

Business Category Business Name Location

OTHER

Food & Entertainment

Carne's Collective Blair

Rock N Joe Coffee Bar Lincoln

Vitality Bowls OmahaRunza Plattsmouth

AquaPop Wayne

OTHER

Healthcare & Fitness

Ambassador Health Lincoln

Edcare LincolnFit In The City Papillion

Skyn Deep Med Spa, LLC PapillionJefferson Community Health and Life Plymouth Clinic Plymouth

OTHER

Retail/Sales

Grace Jewelry ColumbusPhelps Jewelry and Coins Norfolk

Restaurant Depot La VistaHumble Hive Furniture Store Louisville

Gordmans OmahaWal-Mart Papillion

NT Building Supply Sidney

OTHER

Manufacturing

Prairie Catalytic Columbus

Vitalix Sidney

OTHER

Technology

Glenwood Internet (expansion) Hebron

OTHER Overland Ready Mix (new location) Strang

Sources:Lincoln Chamber of CommerceNebraska Department of Labor

Openings and expansions listed are a sampling of activity reported for that month. Some activity may have occurred outside the month. If you have an opening or expansion to report, contact us at LMI_NE@nebraska.gov.

4

Rachel Stevens,

Research Analyst

"Get to Work!"Commuting Patterns

in Nebraska

On any given day, more than 152 million Americans age 16 and over go to work. For the 94.8% of them who don’t work from home, that means a commute.1 Today, the daily commute has become an inescapable fact of life for most American workers, including many Nebraskans. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, this article explores commuting patterns in Nebraska; compares workers’ commuting behaviors according to geography, industry, occupation, and income level; and considers how the trends seen in Nebraska compare to those of the nation as a whole.

Graphic: 123RF.com. Denchik.

5

Drive Alone81.4%

Carpool9.4%

Public Transit0.7%

Walk2.8%

Bike0.5%

Taxi0.9%

Work at Home4.3%

Means of Transportation

The vast majority of Nebraskans—90.8%—either drive themselves to work or ride as a passenger in a carpool, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. In comparison, 85.3% of the overall U.S. workforce commutes by

car. If all 50 states and Washington, D.C. were ranked according to highest share of commuters who drive to work, Nebraska would come in at #14.1

Figure 1: Means of Transportation Used for Commute (Nebraska Workers)

All chart data from United States Census Bureau, 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.

Although some might guess that Nebraska’s relatively high driving rate is primarily a product of the state’s rural areas, where public transit is typically unavailable and the distances between workers’ homes and businesses may be large, the data reveal a more complicated picture. As of 2016, the most recent year for which data are available at the county level, the Nebraska county with the highest proportion of commuters who drove to work was Sarpy County (95.1%), followed by

Dakota (93.9%), Hall (93.8%), and Cass (93.7%). All of these counties are within metropolitan areas, rather than rural expanses: Sarpy and Cass Counties are within the Omaha Metropolitan

Statistical Area (MSA), Hall County is within the Grand Island MSA, and Dakota County is part of the Sioux City MSA, which spans counties in Iowa, South Dakota, and Nebraska. In contrast, the counties where the smallest share of the workforce drove to work were some of the state’s most rural and least populous: Keya Paha (53.1%), McPherson (60%), Blaine

(62.4%), and Loup (65.1%).2

6

Figure 2: Share of Workers Who Commuted by Car

Counties with Largest Share of Workers Commuting by Car

Nebraska (Overall)

Counties with Smallest Share of Workers Commuting by Car

U.S. (Overall)

Counties with Largest Share of Workers Working at Home

Nebraska (Overall)

Walk

Drive Alone Carpool Public Transit Walk Other Work at Home

Bike

Counties with Smallest Share of Workers Working at Home

U.S. (Overall)

95.1% 93.9%93.8% 93.7%

93.0%92.9%

92.8%92.2%92.1%

92.0%91.7%

74.4%74.2% 72.1%

70.9% 69.4%66.8% 65.1%62.4%60.0%

53.1%

90.8%85.7%

Several factors may help to explain these statistics. A high rate of working from home is likely to be one reason that workers in Keya Paha, McPherson, Blaine, Loup, and other rural counties may drive to work less than workers living in more urban areas. In fact, the three counties where Nebraskans were most likely to report working at home were Keya Paha (39.9%), Loup (26.1%), and Blaine (25.2%). McPherson County was not far behind at 17.6%. The list of counties with the fewest people working at home is also strikingly similar to the list of counties with the most commuters who drove: Dodge (2.6%), Sarpy (2.9%), Hall (2.9%), and Dawson (3.1%), followed by Dakota (3.2%), Cass (3.2%), and Lancaster (3.4%).2

Figure 3: Share of Workers Who Worked at Home

39.9%

26.1% 25.2%22.3% 21.5% 20.4%

17.6% 17.6% 16.8% 16.5%

3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 4.3% 4.6%

Counties with Largest Share of Workers Commuting by Car

Nebraska (Overall)

Counties with Smallest Share of Workers Commuting by Car

U.S. (Overall)

Counties with Largest Share of Workers Working at Home

Nebraska (Overall)

Walk

Drive Alone Carpool Public Transit Walk Other Work at Home

Bike

Counties with Smallest Share of Workers Working at Home

U.S. (Overall)Graphic: 123RF.com. Roman Khilchyshyn.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 7

Although driving was the most popular transportation choice for Nebraskans who worked outside of their homes, some commuters chose to walk or bike. Overall, 3.3% of Nebraskans reported getting to work by bicycle or on foot, a share just slightly smaller than the 3.4% of workers who commuted this way nationwide. Nebraska’s walking and biking rates were lowest primarily around the state’s metropolitan areas. The counties where the fewest commuters walked or rode a bike to work were Sarpy (0.8%), Hall (1.7%), Dakota (2.1%), and Scotts Bluff (2.2%). Richardson, Madison, Douglas, and Cass Counties followed, all at 2.3%.2

In 74 of Nebraska’s 93 counties, however, the percentage of commuters getting to work by foot or by bike equaled or surpassed the national figure. The counties with the highest rates were McPherson (17.1%), Dawes (17%), Sioux (16.4%), and Grant (13.4%). Sheridan, Hooker, and Thomas Counties each also exceeded 10%.2

Less than 1% of Nebraskans reported commuting via public transportation. In 45 of Nebraska’s 93 counties, 0% of workers said they used public transportation to get to work. (2) Nationwide, however, about 5.1% of commuters rode public transit. At 0.7%, Nebraska ranks 39th out of 51 (all 50 states plus Washington, D.C.) in percentage of workers who commuted

using public transportation.1 This result should not be surprising, however, given Nebraska’s large rural expanses and correspondingly limited number of residents with access to public transit infrastructure. In fact, Nebraska ranks 21st in the nation in number of total miles of public roads within the state, but just 44th in its number of total annual miles driven by public transport vehicles.3, 4

The rural nature of the state, however, isn’t the only factor keeping Nebraska’s public transit usage rates low. According to data from the 2010 U.S. Census, the most recent measurement of county urbanization available, Nebraska’s four most urban counties are Douglas, Sarpy, Lancaster, and Hall.5 Even in these counties, where a larger share of the population has access to public transportation options than in the rural portions of the state, commuter utilization of these services remains significantly below the national rate: 1.3% in Douglas County, 0.2% in Sarpy County, 1.2% in Lancaster County, and 0.9% in Hall County.2

17.1%16.1% 16.1%

13.1%12.1%

10.3%

6.6%

10.3%

2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.7%2.8% 2.8%

0.9% 0.3%

0.3%

0.8%

3.9%

0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%0.5% 0.6%

Figure 4: Share of Workers Who Commuted by Walking or Biking

Counties with Largest Share of Workers Commuting by Car

Nebraska (Overall)

Counties with Smallest Share of Workers Commuting by Car

U.S. (Overall)

Counties with Largest Share of Workers Working at Home

Nebraska (Overall)

Walk

Drive Alone Carpool Public Transit Walk Other Work at Home

Bike

Counties with Smallest Share of Workers Working at Home

U.S. (Overall)

Graphic: 123RF.com. Roman Khilchyshyn.

8

Travel Time & Destination

Overall, Nebraskans tend to have relatively short commute times. It took about 18.3 minutes, on average, for a Nebraska commuter to travel to work, significantly below the 26.1-minute national average. The counties with the longest average commute times were McPherson (30.1 minutes), Logan (27.6 minutes), Cass (26.2 minutes), and Saunders (25.5 minutes). The counties with the shortest average commute times were Box Butte (11.1 minutes), Red Willow (11.7 minutes), Garfield (11.7 minutes), and Brown (11.8 minutes).2

In most Nebraska counties, the majority of workers were employed within the city in which they lived. Overall, just 25.5% of Nebraska workers held jobs outside of their city of residence, compared to 43.5% of workers nationwide. In three Nebraska counties, however, more than half of workers had out-of-town commutes: Dakota (55.9%), Clay (53.7%), and Sarpy (53%). The counties where the smallest share of the workforce lived and worked in different communities were Banner (4%), Sioux (7.1%), and Lancaster (10.8%).2

Some commuters, however, traveled even further than the next town over to get to work. Nationwide, 23.9% of workers commuted outside of their county of residence, and 3.7% worked in another state. In Nebraska, 18.8% of all workers crossed county lines to get to work, and 2.8% commuted out-of-state.

Unsurprisingly, the Nebraska counties where the largest fraction of residents traveled to another county for work were those adjacent to counties containing larger population centers: Stanton (69.7%), Cass (62.7%), Saunders (57.7%), and Sarpy (55.6%). Nearly 34% of workers living in Stanton County were employed in Norfolk, located in neighboring Madison County, while 32.5% of workers from Cass County, 22% of workers from Saunders County, and 58.1% of workers from Sarpy County commuted to Douglas County to work in Omaha.6

Figure 5: Average Commute Time (in Minutes), by County

Sioux18.3

Dawes12.9

Sheridan18.6

KeyaPaha19.4

Boyd16.3

Cherry13.3 Holt

13.4

Knox16.7

Cedar17.2

Brown11.8

Rock14.7

Dixon20.3

Dakota14.9

Pierce19.1

Box Butte11.1 Antelope

16.7Wayne

16.9Thurston

16.8Cuming

14.9Stanton18.9

Madison14.2

Grant23.8

Loup23.8Hooker

15Garfield

11.7Thomas

14.6Wheeler

18.6Blaine21.2

Burt22.8

Garden20.2

ScottsBluff15.4 Morrill

17.7 Boone16.2 Colfax

16.7

Dodge18.5Platte

14.1Arthur

21.2Greeley

22McPherson

30.1Logan27.6

Custer17.2

Valley15.9

Banner22.8

Washington20.6

Nance19.8

Butler20.9

Saunders25.5

Cheyenne12.5 Polk

19.4

Douglas19.2Sherman

24.1Howard

24.2Lincoln

14.7

Merrick18.8

Keith14.8

Kimball14.4 Deuel

21.9

Sarpy20.7

Hamilton17.4

Cass26.2Seward

21.7 Lancaster18.5

Buffalo14.5

Dawson15.9

York15.1

Hall16.6

Perkins14.8

Otoe21.4

Saline18.8

Adams15.3

Clay20.4

Fillmore15.6

Hayes25

Chase12.9

Frontier19.5

Gosper17.2

Kearney19

Phelps14.3 Nemaha

19.5Gage19.5

Johnson22.2

Thayer13.3

Jefferson16.8

Dundy15.5

Franklin18.4

Webster19.8

Nuckolls17.3

Hitchcock19.6

Harlan18.1

Furnas13.7

Red Willow11.7

Richardson18

Pawnee19.7

11.1 - 13.7 13.8 - 16.3 16.4 - 19.2 19.3 - 22.8 22.9 - 30.1

Sioux18.3

Dawes12.9

Sheridan18.6

KeyaPaha19.4

Boyd16.3

Cherry13.3 Holt

13.4

Knox16.7

Cedar17.2

Brown11.8

Rock14.7

Dixon20.3

Dakota14.9

Pierce19.1

Box Butte11.1 Antelope

16.7Wayne

16.9Thurston

16.8Cuming

14.9Stanton18.9

Madison14.2

Grant23.8

Loup23.8Hooker

15Garfield

11.7Thomas

14.6Wheeler

18.6Blaine21.2

Burt22.8

Garden20.2

ScottsBluff15.4 Morrill

17.7 Boone16.2 Colfax

16.7

Dodge18.5Platte

14.1Arthur

21.2Greeley

22McPherson

30.1Logan27.6

Custer17.2

Valley15.9

Banner22.8

Washington20.6

Nance19.8

Butler20.9

Saunders25.5

Cheyenne12.5 Polk

19.4

Douglas19.2Sherman

24.1Howard

24.2Lincoln

14.7

Merrick18.8

Keith14.8

Kimball14.4 Deuel

21.9

Sarpy20.7

Hamilton17.4

Cass26.2Seward

21.7 Lancaster18.5

Buffalo14.5

Dawson15.9

York15.1

Hall16.6

Perkins14.8

Otoe21.4

Saline18.8

Adams15.3

Clay20.4

Fillmore15.6

Hayes25

Chase12.9

Frontier19.5

Gosper17.2

Kearney19

Phelps14.3 Nemaha

19.5Gage19.5

Johnson22.2

Thayer13.3

Jefferson16.8

Dundy15.5

Franklin18.4

Webster19.8

Nuckolls17.3

Hitchcock19.6

Harlan18.1

Furnas13.7

Red Willow11.7

Richardson18

Pawnee19.7

11.1 - 13.7 13.8 - 16.3 16.4 - 19.2 19.3 - 22.8 22.9 - 30.1

TABLE OF CONTENTS 9

The Nebraska counties with the greatest share of out-of-state commuters were those situated along the state’s borders: Dakota (44.5%), Cedar (18.1%), Dixon (17.4%), and Richardson (16.4%).2 In Dakota County, most workers who commuted outside of the state worked in Sioux City, Iowa (where 26.8% of all Dakota County jobholders traveled for work) or North Sioux City, S.D. (2.1%). Among Cedar County residents, Yankton, S.D. (12.4%) and Vermillion, S.D. (1.1%) drew the most Nebraska workers. Sioux City, Iowa (11%) and Vermillion, S.D. (1.5%) were the top out-of-state destinations for Dixon County workers. Out-of-state commuters living in Richardson County most commonly traveled to cities in Kansas for work, such as Hiawatha (3.7%), Sabetha (3.3%), and Seneca (2.3%).6

Figure 5: Average Commute Time (in Minutes), by County

Sioux18.3

Dawes12.9

Sheridan18.6

KeyaPaha19.4

Boyd16.3

Cherry13.3 Holt

13.4

Knox16.7

Cedar17.2

Brown11.8

Rock14.7

Dixon20.3

Dakota14.9

Pierce19.1

Box Butte11.1 Antelope

16.7Wayne

16.9Thurston

16.8Cuming

14.9Stanton18.9

Madison14.2

Grant23.8

Loup23.8Hooker

15Garfield

11.7Thomas

14.6Wheeler

18.6Blaine21.2

Burt22.8

Garden20.2

ScottsBluff15.4 Morrill

17.7 Boone16.2 Colfax

16.7

Dodge18.5Platte

14.1Arthur

21.2Greeley

22McPherson

30.1Logan27.6

Custer17.2

Valley15.9

Banner22.8

Washington20.6

Nance19.8

Butler20.9

Saunders25.5

Cheyenne12.5 Polk

19.4

Douglas19.2Sherman

24.1Howard

24.2Lincoln

14.7

Merrick18.8

Keith14.8

Kimball14.4 Deuel

21.9

Sarpy20.7

Hamilton17.4

Cass26.2Seward

21.7 Lancaster18.5

Buffalo14.5

Dawson15.9

York15.1

Hall16.6

Perkins14.8

Otoe21.4

Saline18.8

Adams15.3

Clay20.4

Fillmore15.6

Hayes25

Chase12.9

Frontier19.5

Gosper17.2

Kearney19

Phelps14.3 Nemaha

19.5Gage19.5

Johnson22.2

Thayer13.3

Jefferson16.8

Dundy15.5

Franklin18.4

Webster19.8

Nuckolls17.3

Hitchcock19.6

Harlan18.1

Furnas13.7

Red Willow11.7

Richardson18

Pawnee19.7

11.1 - 13.7 13.8 - 16.3 16.4 - 19.2 19.3 - 22.8 22.9 - 30.1

Sioux18.3

Dawes12.9

Sheridan18.6

KeyaPaha19.4

Boyd16.3

Cherry13.3 Holt

13.4

Knox16.7

Cedar17.2

Brown11.8

Rock14.7

Dixon20.3

Dakota14.9

Pierce19.1

Box Butte11.1 Antelope

16.7Wayne

16.9Thurston

16.8Cuming

14.9Stanton18.9

Madison14.2

Grant23.8

Loup23.8Hooker

15Garfield

11.7Thomas

14.6Wheeler

18.6Blaine21.2

Burt22.8

Garden20.2

ScottsBluff15.4 Morrill

17.7 Boone16.2 Colfax

16.7

Dodge18.5Platte

14.1Arthur

21.2Greeley

22McPherson

30.1Logan27.6

Custer17.2

Valley15.9

Banner22.8

Washington20.6

Nance19.8

Butler20.9

Saunders25.5

Cheyenne12.5 Polk

19.4

Douglas19.2Sherman

24.1Howard

24.2Lincoln

14.7

Merrick18.8

Keith14.8

Kimball14.4 Deuel

21.9

Sarpy20.7

Hamilton17.4

Cass26.2Seward

21.7 Lancaster18.5

Buffalo14.5

Dawson15.9

York15.1

Hall16.6

Perkins14.8

Otoe21.4

Saline18.8

Adams15.3

Clay20.4

Fillmore15.6

Hayes25

Chase12.9

Frontier19.5

Gosper17.2

Kearney19

Phelps14.3 Nemaha

19.5Gage19.5

Johnson22.2

Thayer13.3

Jefferson16.8

Dundy15.5

Franklin18.4

Webster19.8

Nuckolls17.3

Hitchcock19.6

Harlan18.1

Furnas13.7

Red Willow11.7

Richardson18

Pawnee19.7

11.1 - 13.7 13.8 - 16.3 16.4 - 19.2 19.3 - 22.8 22.9 - 30.1

10

Figure 6: Means of Transportation Used for Commute, by Industry

Drive Alone Carpool Public Transit Walk Other Work at HomeAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting, Mining 62.7% 8.0% 0.3% 5.6% 1.1% 22.3%

Construction 80.3% 13.0% 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 3.6%Manufacturing 81.0% 14.1% 0.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7%Wholesale Trade 86.4% 6.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 4.7%Retail Trade 84.6% 8.3% 0.9% 2.7% 1.4% 2.2%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 87.0% 6.4% 0.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3%Information 81.5% 7.4% 0.9% 3.2% 1.7% 5.2%Finance & Insurance, Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 86.1% 7.1% 0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 4.4%

Professional, Scientific, Management, Administrative, & Waste Management Services

80.3% 8.4% 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 7.7%

Educational Services, Health Care, & Social Assistance 81.8% 8.8% 0.8% 3.7% 1.3% 3.6%

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation, Accommodation & Food Services 76.0% 12.5% 1.7% 5.3% 1.9% 2.5%

Other Services (Except Public Administration) 81.2% 7.8% 0.5% 4.1% 1.3% 5.1%

Public Administration 85.8% 8.3% 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.8%Armed Forces 89.1% 7.2% 0.1% 1.4% 1.6% 0.7%

Industry, Occupation, & Income

Commuting behaviors are influenced not only by geography, but also by the nature of the commuter’s job. In Nebraska, 22.3% of workers employed in the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining industry cluster said they worked at home—14.6 percentage points higher than any other industry. Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining industry workers were also the most likely to report walking to work, with 5.6% of them commuting this way. Workers in this industry cluster had the lowest rates of driving to work, at just 62.7%. Since the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining industry includes farmers and ranchers, who often live on or near the land they work, these results are not particularly surprising.2

Members of the armed forces were the group of workers most likely to drive to work alone (89.1% commuted this way), and had the lowest rates of working at home (0.7%) or commuting via public transportation (0.1%). Employees of the arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services industry cluster were the most likely to take public transit to work, with 1.7% reporting this type of commute. The manufacturing industry had the largest share of workers who said they carpooled to get to work (14.1%).2

TABLE OF CONTENTS 11

Figure 7: Means of Transportation Used for Commute, by OccupationCounties with Largest Share of Workers Commuting by Car

Nebraska (Overall)

Counties with Smallest Share of Workers Commuting by Car

U.S. (Overall)

Counties with Largest Share of Workers Working at Home

Nebraska (Overall)

Walk

Drive Alone Carpool Public Transit Walk Other Work at Home

Bike

Counties with Smallest Share of Workers Working at Home

U.S. (Overall)

Drive Alone Carpool Public Transit Walk Other Work at HomeManagement, Business, Science, & Arts 82.3% 7.5% 0.6% 2.7% 1.1% 5.8%Service 77.6% 10.7% 1.1% 4.2% 1.7% 4.7%Sales & Office 83.7% 7.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.1% 4.0%Natural Resources, Construction, & Maintenance 81.1% 12.0% 0.4% 1.9% 1.4% 3.1%

Production, Transportation, & Material Moving 79.7% 13.8% 0.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6%

Military Specific 89.5% 6.1% 0.0% 1.3% 2.0% 1.1%

Evaluating Nebraska’s commuting patterns at the occupational level yields results that are largely similar to trends observed at the industry level. Workers employed in military-specific occupations were the most likely to report driving to work alone (89.5%), and the least likely to commute in almost any other method. Nebraskans in service occupations had the highest rates of walking (4.2%) or taking public transit to work (1.1%). Production, transportation, and material moving occupations had the largest share of commuters who carpooled (13.8%). Working at home was most common in the management, business, science, and arts occupation group (5.8%).2

Besides industry and occupation, a worker’s income level can also affect his or her commuting choices. Looking at income earned during the past 12 months, the median for Nebraska commuters who drove to work alone was $35,022, nearly $2,500 more than the overall statewide median annual earnings. Given the expenses associated with owning and operating a vehicle, it is not surprising that people with higher incomes might choose to drive more frequently.

Conversely, commuters who walked, carpooled, or rode public transit to work had a lower median annual earnings than Nebraska workers overall. When looking at the state as a whole, the median annual earnings for Nebraskans who worked at home fell slightly below the overall median, but this varied significantly at the county level: in 29 Nebraska counties, the median annual earnings for those who worked at home was higher than the overall county-wide median.2

12

Figure 8: Means of Transportation Used for Commute, by Median Earnings (Last 12 Months)

$35,022

$26,970

$18,609 $18,272

$25,018 $30,536

$32,554$35,022

$26,970

$18,609 $18,272

$25,018 $30,536

$32,554

Using the Data

Commuting data can provide valuable information about the behaviors and priorities of Nebraska’s workforce, as well as insight into the types of employment opportunities that may be available in different regions of the state. Workers and job seekers can use this information to plan their commutes and determine whether particular communities or industries are likely to meet their personal

transportation requirements. Businesses and economic developers may likewise find the data useful for gauging the size and scope of their regional labor markets and developing strategies for recruiting and retaining employees. City planners and other community leaders, finally, might examine commuting patterns to determine local transportation needs, set goals, and evaluate the success or failure of existing initiatives to encourage certain forms of travel.

For more detailed data and additional interactive visualizations about commuting patterns in all 93 Nebraska counties and across the country, visit: https://public.tableau.com/profile/ndollmi#!/vizhome/NebraskaCommutingPatterns-November2018/CommutingPatterns.

Sources:1. U.S. Census Bureau. 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. Tables B08301 & S0801. [Online] [Cited: October 2, 2018.] American Fact-

Finder.

2. —. 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. Tables B01003, B08103, B08121, B08124, B08126, S0801, S0802. [Online] [Cited: Octo-ber 1, 2018.] American FactFinder.

3. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. Office of Highway Policy Information. Highway Statistics 2016- Table HM-20. [Online] September 18, 2017. [Cited: October 5, 2018.] https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2016/hm20.cfm.

4. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration. National Transit Database (NTD). 2015 NTD Data Tables. [Online] 2015. [Cited: October 3, 2018.] https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd.

5. U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Summary File 1. P2: URBAN AND RURAL. [Online] 2010. [Cited: October 4, 2018.] American FactFinder.

6. —. Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program. LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (2002-2015). [Online] [Cited: October 9, 2018.] https://onthemap.ces.census.gov.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 13

Dillon Cornett, Research Analyst

Fast FactsRetail Trade

6,969 Retail establishments in

Nebraska

107,300 Retail workers statewide

$13.38/hour Average wage of Nebraska

retail workers

$27,820/year Average annual salary of Nebraska retail workers

11.2% of Nebraska's total

employment

In 2017-2018, employers in eastern Nebraska were surveyed as a part of the Nebraska Department of Labor (NDOL) Labor Availability Study. The data collected provide a breakdown of the hiring and training needs in the retail trade industry.

In all three Eastern Nebraska survey areas, not receiving enough applications was the most common reason employers reported difficulty hiring for sales and related occupations. An even greater share of employers in the Northeast area reported this as a challenge (76.6%) compared to employers in the Lincoln (66.6%) and Omaha (64.8%) areas.

Reported Job Openings at Eastern Nebraska Retail Trade Industry Employers

34.5%

29.1%

29.1%

7.3%

28.6%

26.5%

13.3%

31.6%

45.9%

35.6%

5.6%

12.9%

Num

ber o

f Job

Ope

ning

s

Reasons for Difficulty Hiring for Sales & Related Occupations Reported by Eastern Nebraska Employers

Reason for Difficulty Lincoln Omaha NortheastAvailability for shifts required 45.4% 37.8% 38.6%Citizenship/work authorization 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Failed background check/drug screen 17.1% 18.8% 15.9%Lack occupation specific skills 42.3% 42.4% 40.1%Lack of work experience 50.9% 45.3% 49.7%Lack required education 6.7% 3.5% 13.8%Lack required licenses/certificates 1.5% 3.4% 6.9%Language barrier 4.6% 1.5% 1.6%Not enough applicants 66.6% 64.8% 76.6%Overqualified 8.0% 5.6% 1.1%Poor work history 54.2% 33.3% 45.2%Wage demands too high 29.7% 35.7% 33.1%

14

Graphic: 123RF.com. Elenabsl.

Perceived Skill Deficiencies in Eastern Nebraska Retail Industry Workforce

Skill Lincoln Omaha NortheastAbility to adapt to change 27.5% 32.4% 45.5%Ability to pay attention to detail 48.8% 41.7% 42.7%Ability to problem solve 37.5% 38.9% 42.6%Ability to work as a team 17.1% 27.4% 40.1%Ability to work independently 28.6% 26.0% 44.8%Advanced computer skills 30.8% 33.8% 41.6%Attitude 34.1% 28.8% 45.9%Basic computer skills 10.0% 17.8% 35.1%Basic math skills 19.5% 19.4% 34.4%Creativity 19.0% 20.8% 31.4%Critical thinking skills 39.5% 43.8% 52.3%Customer service skills 36.6% 26.0% 44.0%Leadership skills 46.3% 49.3% 47.5%Sales skills 31.7% 27.8% 43.7%Verbal communication 22.0% 26.4% 33.2%Willingness to learn 28.6% 18.9% 26.3%Work ethic 42.9% 39.2% 54.2%Written communication 24.4% 27.0% 41.4%

Sources:1. Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market Information. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Retail Trade Industry. [Online] [Cited: October

11, 2018.] NEworks.

2. Nebraska Department of Labor. Labor Availability Study. [Online] 2018. https://neworks.nebraska.gov/gsipub/index.asp?docid=802.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 15

Labor Availability Study Spotlight Expansion Issues and Reasons for Difficulty Hiring by IndustryDillon Cornett, Research Analyst

In 2017 and 2018, The Nebraska Department of Labor (NDOL) surveyed employers in the Omaha, Lincoln, and Northeast Nebraska (Columbus, Norfolk, and Fremont) areas about their hiring and training needs. The survey asked responding employers to identify the top three occupation titles that they had recently hired or had been trying to hire. If they responded that it was difficult to hire workers for a specific occupation, they were asked to indicate if certain reasons for difficulty applied. Employers also answered the question, “If asked to consider expansion at this location, would issues with labor availability, such as difficulty finding workers, be present?”

The industry groups discussed here each contain a number of specific industry subsectors. A complete breakdown detailing the subsectors composing each industry group can be viewed on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ North American Industry Classification System website, available here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm.

The data collected from this survey were used to produce a Hiring and Training Needs Report for each survey area. In these reports, data from the five industry groups with the most respondents were analyzed to determine employers’ perceived reasons for hiring difficulty. Additional data from new groups of firms have been analyzed for each of the Lincoln, Omaha, and Northeast Nebraska survey areas (see map above). The results of this new analysis are examined in the following pages.

Labor Availability Study Survey Map: Northeast, Lincoln, and Omaha Areas

Holt

Gage

Hall

Clay

Otoe

York

Platte

Burt

Holt

Cass

Page

Boone

Polk

Cass

Butler

Saline

Antelope

Mills

Pierce

Monona

Lancaster

Shelby

Adams

Thayer

Dodge

Saunders

Harrison

Crawford

Seward

Howard

Greeley

Cuming

Carroll

Fillmore

Nance

Wheeler

Webster

Madison

Pottawattamie

Merrick

Colfax

Nuckolls

Wayne

Jefferson

HamiltonFremont

Atchison

Buffalo

Pawnee

Ida

Nodaway

Stanton

Sac

Valley

Franklin

Nemaha

Richardson

Audubon

KearneyJohnson

Thurston

Douglas

SarpySherman

Garfield

Woodbury

Montgomery

Washington

Brown

Dixon

NemahaMarshall

DakotaCedar

Washington

Taylor

Adams

Andrew

RepublicJewell Doniphan

Calhoun

Smith

Guthrie

Knox

Labor Availability Study - Survey AreasLincoln Area

Omaha Metro

Northeast Area

16

Percentage of Employers Indicating Reasons for Hiring Difficulty, by Industry (Omaha)

Reason Manufacturing Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing

Finance & Insurance

Availability for shifts required 19.5% 6.9% 45.9% 19.2% 15.1%Citizenship/work authorization 4.0% 2.3% 0.0% 3.8% 4.1%Failed background check/drug screen 22.8% 25.2% 34.6% 32.7% 19.2%Lack occupation specific skills 50.3% 52.7% 39.8% 44.2% 52.1%Lack of work experience 61.7% 55.0% 39.1% 61.5% 53.4%Lack required education 8.7% 3.8% 3.8% 1.9% 9.6%Lack required licenses/certificates 5.4% 14.5% 9.0% 30.8% 9.6%Language barrier 6.7% 4.6% 4.5% 3.8% 0.0%Not enough applicants 71.1% 65.6% 72.2% 65.4% 64.4%Overqualified 8.1% 7.6% 6.8% 3.8% 20.5%Poor work history 42.3% 49.6% 34.6% 59.6% 28.8%Wage demands too high 31.7% 35.9% 40.6% 38.5% 38.4%

In the Omaha survey area, analyses were conducted for responding employers doing business in manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and finance and insurance. In all five industries, employers most often indicated that not receiving enough applicants was a reason they had difficulty hiring.

Percentage of Employers Indicating Issues with Labor Availability if Asked to Consider Expansion, by Industry (Omaha)

Industry Yes Maybe NoConstruction 60.0% 21.7% 18.3%Manufacturing 48.8% 27.9% 23.3%Wholesale Trade 42.0% 40.6% 17.4%Retail Trade 36.7% 31.6% 31.6%Transportation and Warehousing 51.5% 36.4% 12.1%Information 29.4% 35.3% 35.3%Finance and Insurance 33.3% 38.1% 28.6%Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 15.0% 40.0% 45.0%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 38.8% 28.8% 32.5%Management of Companies and Enterprises 15.8% 68.4% 15.8%Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 48.1% 30.9% 21.0%Educational Services 27.3% 27.3% 45.5%Health Care and Social Assistance 47.2% 35.2% 17.6%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 34.4% 25.0% 40.6%Accommodation and Food Services 50.4% 30.5% 19.1%Other Services (except Public Administration) 33.3% 33.3% 33.3%

TABLE OF CONTENTS 17

More than 61% of Omaha metro employers doing business in the manufacturing and transportation and warehousing industries indicated that applicants’ lack of work experience was a reason that finding workers was difficult. Retail trade employers most often responded that applicants’ lack of availability for required shifts was an obstacle to hiring (45.9%). A majority of transportation and warehousing employers indicated that hiring was challenging due to applicants’ poor work histories (59.6%). More than 30% of transportation industry employers also said that a lack of required licenses or certificates made finding workers difficult.

When asked whether labor availability would be a problem if they were to attempt a business expansion, construction industry employers

answered ‘yes’ more frequently (60%) than employers in any other industry in the Omaha area. Transportation and warehousing industry employers were most likely to respond either ‘yes’ or ‘maybe’ (87.9%), followed by employers in management (84.2%) and wholesale trade (82.6%). Educational services (45.5%) and real estate and rental leasing employers (45%) most often reported they would not have labor availability issues.

In the Lincoln survey area, responses were analyzed for employers doing business in wholesale trade; finance and insurance; professional, scientific and technical services; administrative and support and waste management and remediation services; and other services (except public administration). In most industries analyzed, not receiving enough applicants was the most common reason respondents said they had difficulty hiring. Employers in the professional, scientific, and technical services industry, however, most often indicated that applicants lacked occupation-specific skills (62.5%).

Nearly 58% of businesses in Lincoln’s finance and insurance industry reported that applicants’ wage demands were too high; this response was more than 30 percentage points less common in the other Lincoln-area industries. Finance and insurance industry employers were also the most likely to report that applicant overqualification was a challenge (21.1%). In the administrative and support industry, 45% of employers indicated that failed background checks or drug screens were a hiring difficulty, a significantly higher percentage than recorded for other industries analyzed in the Lincoln area.

Percentage of Employers Indicating Reasons for Hiring Difficulty, by Industry (Lincoln)

Reason Wholesale Trade

Finance & Insurance

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Administrative & Support & Waste Management &

Remediation Services

Other Services (except Public

Administration)

Availability for shifts required 19.5% 6.9% 45.9% 19.2% 15.1%Citizenship/work authorization 4.0% 2.3% 0.0% 3.8% 4.1%Failed background check/drug screen 22.8% 25.2% 34.6% 32.7% 19.2%Lack occupation specific skills 50.3% 52.7% 39.8% 44.2% 52.1%Lack of work experience 61.7% 55.0% 39.1% 61.5% 53.4%Lack required education 8.7% 3.8% 3.8% 1.9% 9.6%Lack required licenses/certificates 5.4% 14.5% 9.0% 30.8% 9.6%Language barrier 6.7% 4.6% 4.5% 3.8% 0.0%Not enough applicants 71.1% 65.6% 72.2% 65.4% 64.4%Overqualified 8.1% 7.6% 6.8% 3.8% 20.5%Poor work history 42.3% 49.6% 34.6% 59.6% 28.8%Wage demands too high 31.7% 35.9% 40.6% 38.5% 38.4%

18

Percentage of Employers Indicating Issues with Labor Availability if Asked to Consider Expansion, by Industry (Lincoln)

Industry Yes Maybe NoConstruction 63.0% 25.9% 11.1%Manufacturing 49.2% 35.4% 15.4%Wholesale Trade 48.3% 37.9% 13.8%Retail Trade 39.3% 37.5% 23.2%Transportation and Warehousing 47.1% 35.3% 17.6%Information 25.0% 37.5% 37.5%Finance and Insurance 17.6% 29.4% 52.9%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 22.9% 51.4% 25.7%Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 50.0% 28.6% 21.4%Health Care and Social Assistance 46.7% 34.3% 19.0%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 57.1% 35.7% 7.1%Accommodation and Food Services 45.5% 37.9% 16.7%Other Services (except Public Administration) 42.9% 23.8% 33.3%

As in the Omaha survey area, construction industry employers in the Lincoln area were the most likely to indicate that labor availability would be a challenge if they were to attempt an expansion (63%). Lincoln’s finance and insurance industry was the only sector in any of the three survey areas where the majority of employers reported that an expansion effort would not create any labor availability issues (52.9%).

Percentage of Employers Indicating Reasons for Hiring Difficulty, by Industry (Northeast Nebraska)

Reason Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

Manufacturing Transportation & Warehousing

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Administrative & Support & Waste Management &

Remediation ServicesAvailability for shifts required 24.9% 22.7% 16.4% 13.0% 32.0%Citizenship/work authorization

34.8% 5.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Failed background check/drug screen

10.5% 17.9% 14.8% 10.7% 44.1%

Lack occupation specific skills

46.2% 52.4% 36.7% 54.0% 28.4%

Lack of work experience 31.4% 59.0% 49.1% 39.5% 24.8%Lack required education 6.6% 20.0% 7.8% 25.6% 2.1%Lack required licenses/certificates

1.5% 7.4% 31.8% 12.6% 16.3%

Language barrier 25.2% 11.4% 3.1% 2.8% 12.0%Not enough applicants 66.4% 76.2% 78.1% 71.2% 55.9%Overqualified 0.0% 4.6% 8.5% 10.2% 17.9%Poor work history 32.2% 47.0% 38.1% 35.4% 44.1%Wage demands too high 36.1% 37.9% 46.0% 27.9% 40.0%

TABLE OF CONTENTS 19

Percentage of Employers Indicating Issues with Labor Availability if Asked to Consider Expansion, by Industry (Northeast Nebraska)

Industry Yes Maybe NoAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 30.0% 60.4% 9.6%Construction 64.1% 25.7% 10.3%Manufacturing 66.6% 26.0% 7.4%Wholesale Trade 58.7% 30.1% 11.2%Retail Trade 67.3% 20.7% 12.0%Transportation and Warehousing 58.1% 22.1% 19.8%Finance and Insurance 29.5% 44.0% 26.5%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 44.9% 46.9% 8.1%Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 60.9% 39.1% 0.0%Health Care and Social Assistance 66.3% 25.4% 8.3%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 57.8% 21.6% 20.5%Accommodation and Food Services 49.4% 36.6% 14.1%Other Services (except Public Administration) 58.4% 29.0% 12.6%

In the Northeast Nebraska survey area, data were analyzed for responding employers doing business in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; manufacturing; transportation and warehousing; professional, scientific and technical services; and administrative and support and waste management and remediation services. Employers in each industry most often indicated that not receiving enough applicants was a reason they had difficulty hiring. Compared to the other Northeast-area industries, a greater percentage of employers in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry indicated that problems with citizenship or work authorization were an obstacle to finding workers (34.8%). Manufacturing employers were the most likely to report that a lack of work experience made hiring difficult (59%). As in the Lincoln area, administrative and support industry employers in

the Northeast area most frequently reported hiring challenges due to failed background checks or drug screens (44.1%).

Compared to employers in the Omaha and Lincoln survey areas, businesses in Northeast Nebraska were across-the-board more likely to report that an expansion effort was likely to create labor availability challenges. All responding employers in the Northeast’s administrative and support industry responded that labor issues either ‘would’ (60.9%) or ‘might be’ present (39.1%) if they were to consider an expansion. The industry with the largest share of Northeast-area employers who responded that an expansion would not cause labor availability issues was finance and insurance (26.5%), followed by employers in arts, entertainment, and recreation (20.5%), and transportation and warehousing (19.8%).

These survey results show the similarities and differences between the major hiring challenges employers may face based on their geographical location and industry. Businesses can use this information to identify and anticipate potential sources of hiring difficulty and develop adaptation strategies as they plan their future growth. Job seekers may likewise benefit from keeping these data in mind when applying for positions in order to avoid the pitfalls that most commonly derail the hiring process in their area and industry of choice.

Readers interested in viewing hiring difficulty data for other industry groups or receiving additional insights into the hiring and training needs of employers in Omaha, Lincoln, or Northeast Nebraska can view the full 2017-2018 NDOL Hiring and Training Needs Reports for each survey area, available at https://dol.nebraska.gov/las.

20

Rachel Stevens, Research Analyst

Map Facts Veterans Day

November 11 is Veterans Day, a national holiday honoring those who have served in the United States Armed Forces.

The significance of the date was first established by President Wilson in 1919 under the name “Armistice Day,” in order to commemorate the cessation of World War I hostilities on November 11, 1918. In 1938, the holiday was renamed “Veterans Day” and broadened to become “a celebration to honor America's veterans [of all wars] for their patriotism, love of country, and willingness to serve and sacrifice for the common good.”1

This month’s Map Facts celebrates Veterans Day by taking a look at Nebraska’s veteran population by county. The map’s labels show the number of veterans living in each county, while the color scale represents veterans as a percentage of the county’s total population age 18 and over.

According to data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 2016 estimates, the Nebraska counties with the most veterans as a share of their overall 18+ population were Sarpy (15%), Hooker (14.8%), Cass (14.6%), and Loup (14%). Statewide, 9% of Nebraska’s total 18 and over population were veterans. Nebraska had a greater concentration of veterans than the United States as a whole: of the overall U.S. adult population, 8% were veterans as of 2016 data.2

In both Nebraska and the U.S. as a whole, the largest share of veterans served during the Vietnam era (34.3% of Nebraska veterans; 35.7% of veterans nationwide). Another 20.5% of Nebraska veterans and 18.7% of veterans nationwide served during the Gulf War period from August 1990 to August 2001, and 17.3% (Nebraska) and 15.3% (nationwide) served after September 11, 2001.2

Veteran Population by County

Washington1,611

Scotts Bluff2,638

Richardson725

McPherson41

Red Willow762

Keya Paha62

Cheyenne787

Hitchcock246

Lancaster16,521

Box Butte762

Saunders1,604

Jefferson621

Thurston336

Sheridan452

Sherman219

Antelope470

Hamilton760

Johnson382

Nuckolls457

Madison2,103

Webster255

Kearney534

Douglas31,253

Wheeler47

Nemaha517

Franklin299

Fillmore453

Dawson1,091

Thomas50

Frontier209

Garfield189

Pawnee241

Cuming672

Stanton367

Greeley219

Howard499

Perkins196

Kimball299

Seward1,033

Merrick616

Lincoln2,784

Gosper104

Garden147Banner

57

Hooker84

Buffalo2,634

Dakota1,025

Furnas355

Adams2,125

Thayer413

Phelps624

Wayne526

Cherry432

Custer808

Dawes706

Dundy174

Harlan300

Boone406 Dodge

2,658

Brown203

Arthur26

Colfax484

Morrill297

Nance225

Chase264

Pierce577

Logan49

Blaine51

Hayes104

Saline824

Butler669

Valley330

Cedar700

Sarpy18,115

Dixon402

Deuel180

Sioux91

Platte2,338

Grant56

Gage1,630

Boyd198

Knox778

Keith668

Rock106

Loup61

Cass2,777

Otoe1,267

Hall4,043

York847

Clay492

Polk325

Burt475

Holt728

6.3% 15.0%

Veteran Percentage of Population by County

Washington1,611

Scotts Bluff2,638

Richardson725

McPherson41

Red Willow762

Keya Paha62

Cheyenne787

Hitchcock246

Lancaster16,521

Box Butte762

Saunders1,604

Jefferson621

Thurston336

Sheridan452

Sherman219

Antelope470

Hamilton760

Johnson382

Nuckolls457

Madison2,103

Webster255

Kearney534

Douglas31,253

Wheeler47

Nemaha517

Franklin299

Fillmore453

Dawson1,091

Thomas50

Frontier209

Garfield189

Pawnee241

Cuming672

Stanton367

Greeley219

Howard499

Perkins196

Kimball299

Seward1,033

Merrick616

Lincoln2,784

Gosper104

Garden147Banner

57

Hooker84

Buffalo2,634

Dakota1,025

Furnas355

Adams2,125

Thayer413

Phelps624

Wayne526

Cherry432

Custer808

Dawes706

Dundy174

Harlan300

Boone406 Dodge

2,658

Brown203

Arthur26

Colfax484

Morrill297

Nance225

Chase264

Pierce577

Logan49

Blaine51

Hayes104

Saline824

Butler669

Valley330

Cedar700

Sarpy18,115

Dixon402

Deuel180

Sioux91

Platte2,338

Grant56

Gage1,630

Boyd198

Knox778

Keith668

Rock106

Loup61

Cass2,777

Otoe1,267

Hall4,043

York847

Clay492

Polk325

Burt475

Holt728

6.3% 15.0%

TABLE OF CONTENTS 21

To explore additional data about Nebraska’s veterans and view an interactive version of the map, visit https://public.tableau.com/profile/ndollmi#!/vizhome/VeteransDay-November2018_0/FullMap.

Sources:1. U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Office of Public and Intergovernmental Affairs. History of Veterans Day. [Online] July 20, 2015. [Cited: October 17,

2018.] https://www.va.gov/opa/vetsday/vetdayhistory.asp.

2. U.S. Census Bureau. 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. Tables S2101, B21100. [Online] American FactFinder.

Washington1,611

Scotts Bluff2,638

Richardson725

McPherson41

Red Willow762

Keya Paha62

Cheyenne787

Hitchcock246

Lancaster16,521

Box Butte762

Saunders1,604

Jefferson621

Thurston336

Sheridan452

Sherman219

Antelope470

Hamilton760

Johnson382

Nuckolls457

Madison2,103

Webster255

Kearney534

Douglas31,253

Wheeler47

Nemaha517

Franklin299

Fillmore453

Dawson1,091

Thomas50

Frontier209

Garfield189

Pawnee241

Cuming672

Stanton367

Greeley219

Howard499

Perkins196

Kimball299

Seward1,033

Merrick616

Lincoln2,784

Gosper104

Garden147Banner

57

Hooker84

Buffalo2,634

Dakota1,025

Furnas355

Adams2,125

Thayer413

Phelps624

Wayne526

Cherry432

Custer808

Dawes706

Dundy174

Harlan300

Boone406 Dodge

2,658

Brown203

Arthur26

Colfax484

Morrill297

Nance225

Chase264

Pierce577

Logan49

Blaine51

Hayes104

Saline824

Butler669

Valley330

Cedar700

Sarpy18,115

Dixon402

Deuel180

Sioux91

Platte2,338

Grant56

Gage1,630

Boyd198

Knox778

Keith668

Rock106

Loup61

Cass2,777

Otoe1,267

Hall4,043

York847

Clay492

Polk325

Burt475

Holt728

6.3% 15.0%

22

Employment Data | SeptemberByron Lefler, Research Analyst

September Unemployment Rates by CountyNot seasonally adjusted

Cherry2.0 Holt

2.4

Custer2.1

Sioux2.5

Lincoln2.6

Sheridan2.3

Morrill2.6 Garden

2.3

Knox2.3

Keith2.5

Dawes2.4

Rock1.9

Brown2.8

Gage2.7

Hall2.6

Dundy2.5

Chase2.2

Buffalo2.2

Grant2.8

Clay2.5

Kimball2.8

York2.3

Frontier2.4

Otoe2.5

Dawson2.4

Cedar2.3

Platte2.4

Arthur5.3

Burt2.9

Perkins1.9

Cheyenne2.7

Hayes2.2

Blaine4.6

Loup3.3

Box Butte2.6

Cass2.5

Boone2.1Banner

3.2

Polk2.1

Butler2.5

Furnas2.2

Hooker2.7

Antelope2.2

Saline2.4

Valley2.4

Pierce2.0

Logan3.1

Thomas2.6

Lancaster2.4

Dixon2.8

Harlan2.2

Adams2.7

Thayer2.0

Dodge2.5

Phelps2.2

Saunders2.5

McPherson2.1

Deuel2.7

Howard2.6

Cuming2.4

Seward2.5

Greeley2.9

Fillmore2.3

Hitchcock3.2

Garfield2.2

Franklin3.0

Keya Paha2.5

Webster2.6

Nance2.4

Madison2.3

Wheeler2.3

Nuckolls2.3

Colfax2.2

Gosper2.5

Scotts Bluff3.0

Jefferson2.3

Wayne2.5

Sherman2.6

Red Willow2.3

Kearney1.9

Hamilton2.4

Pawnee2.0

Richardson2.6

Johnson3.2

Douglas2.8

Boyd2.4

Merrick2.5

Stanton2.1

Nemaha2.8

Thurston3.3

Sarpy2.5

Dakota2.5

Washington2.5

County Rates1.9 - 2.1

2.2 - 2.4

2.5 - 2.8

2.9 - 3.3

3.4 - 5.3

TABLE OF CONTENTS 23

Cherry2.0 Holt

2.4

Custer2.1

Sioux2.5

Lincoln2.6

Sheridan2.3

Morrill2.6 Garden

2.3

Knox2.3

Keith2.5

Dawes2.4

Rock1.9

Brown2.8

Gage2.7

Hall2.6

Dundy2.5

Chase2.2

Buffalo2.2

Grant2.8

Clay2.5

Kimball2.8

York2.3

Frontier2.4

Otoe2.5

Dawson2.4

Cedar2.3

Platte2.4

Arthur5.3

Burt2.9

Perkins1.9

Cheyenne2.7

Hayes2.2

Blaine4.6

Loup3.3

Box Butte2.6

Cass2.5

Boone2.1Banner

3.2

Polk2.1

Butler2.5

Furnas2.2

Hooker2.7

Antelope2.2

Saline2.4

Valley2.4

Pierce2.0

Logan3.1

Thomas2.6

Lancaster2.4

Dixon2.8

Harlan2.2

Adams2.7

Thayer2.0

Dodge2.5

Phelps2.2

Saunders2.5

McPherson2.1

Deuel2.7

Howard2.6

Cuming2.4

Seward2.5

Greeley2.9

Fillmore2.3

Hitchcock3.2

Garfield2.2

Franklin3.0

Keya Paha2.5

Webster2.6

Nance2.4

Madison2.3

Wheeler2.3

Nuckolls2.3

Colfax2.2

Gosper2.5

Scotts Bluff3.0

Jefferson2.3

Wayne2.5

Sherman2.6

Red Willow2.3

Kearney1.9

Hamilton2.4

Pawnee2.0

Richardson2.6

Johnson3.2

Douglas2.8

Boyd2.4

Merrick2.5

Stanton2.1

Nemaha2.8

Thurston3.3

Sarpy2.5

Dakota2.5

Washington2.5

NEBRASKASeptember Non-farm Total Employment: 1,037,445Manufacturing: 102,992

Nebraska (smoothed seasonally adjusted)September Unemployment Rate: 2.8%Change (OTM): 0.0Change (OTY): -0.1

Economic Regions (not seasonally adjusted)Central: 2.4%Mid Plains: 2.5%Northeast: 2.4%Panhandle: 2.7%Sandhills: 2.4%Southeast: 2.5%

OMAHA MSA (not seasonally adjusted) September Unemployment Rate: 2.6%September Total Non-Farm: 509,883Manufacturing: 36,417

Largest OTM Increases (Private)Trade, Transportation & Utilities: 716 (0.7%)Education and Health Services: 95 (0.1%)

LINCOLN MSA (not seasonally adjusted) September Unemployment Rate: 2.4%September Total Non-Farm: 192,351Manufacturing: 13,396

Largest OTM Increases (Private)Other Services: 65 (0.9%)Education and Health Services: 62 (0.2%)

GRAND ISLAND MSA (not seasonally adjusted) September Unemployment Rate: 2.6%September Total Non-Farm: 43,541Change (OTM): 1,074 (2.5%)Change (OTY): 531 (1.2%)

Sources: 1. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics Program

2. Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program

24

Economic Indicators Nebraska Leading IndexKermit Spade, Research Analyst

Leading Index for the United States and Nebraska

In each new issue of Trends, the Economic Indicators section features a chart or graph focused on one of the economic indicators listed in the table on the next page. This month, we are focusing on the Nebraska Leading Index.

For a leading index, the time series will typically peak and trough before a recession’s beginning and end points. As depicted in the graph above, the leading index for Nebraska shows a peak in January 2007 and then begins to turn downward, nearly a year ahead of the recession that begins in December 2007. Similarly, Nebraska’s leading index troughs in March 2009 and then begins an upward trend, with the end of the recession following in June of 2009. In this example the peak leads the beginning of the recession by 12 months and the trough leads the end of the recession by 6 months. In the years following the recession, the time series hovers in the 1.0 to 2.0 range. In the future, if the leading index begins to drop below this range, it could be a warning sign that the economy may be approaching a recession. It is for this reason that economists pay attention to this and other leading indicators.

Housing permits, initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times, and interest rate spreads are other metrics that are typically considered to be leading indicators. Combining these leading indicators together creates a single index indicator that is more easily monitored. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve uses this index and many others to monitor the economy and determine the beginning and end of economic recessions. The leading indicators monitored by the Board of Governors are listed in the pink box above.

Source: 1. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, October 14, 2018.

According to the Federal Reserve, "The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill."1

TABLE OF CONTENTS 25

Change Over Last Quarter/MonthMetric Current Time

PeriodUnited States

Midwest Region

Nebraska

Average Weekly Manufacturing Hours September, 2018 -0.1 +0.4*

Initial Unemployment Claims September, 2018 -3.0% +0.2%

Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for Consumer Goods August, 2018 -0.2%

ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index© September, 2018 -5.1%

Value of Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft August, 2018 -0.9%

S&P 500© August, 2018 +1.5%

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate September, 2018 1.1%

University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment Index September, 2018 -1.1%

Consumer Price Index, not seasonally adjusted September, 2018 +0.1% +0.1%

Employment Cost Index 2nd Quarter, 2018 +0.6%

Producer Price Index: All Commodities September, 2018 +0.1%

Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted August, 2018 -0.2% +/-0.0%* -0.1%*

Real GDP, billions of chained 2009 dollars 2nd Quarter, 2018 +4.2%

Net Taxable Sales July, 2018 -8.1%

Barrel of Crude Oil, WTI-Cushing, Spot Price September, 2018 +$2.17

Current Account Balance (millions of dollars) 1st Quarter, 2018 +6.9%

Leading Economic Index August, 2018 +13.0% +28.8%

*Data lagged one monthSources:1. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Customized Tables; State and Area Employment, Hours and Earnings. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Online] http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?sm.

2. US. Employment and Training Administration. 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IC4WSA.

3. —. Initial Claims in Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEICLAIMS.

4. US. Bureau of the Census. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ACOGNO.

5. Institute for Supply Management. ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index©. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NAPMNOI.

6. US. Bureau of the Census. Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEWORDER.

7. S&P Dow Jones Indicies LLC. S&P 500©. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SP500.

8. Federal Reserve Bank of Philidelphia. Leading Index for the United States. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USSLIND.

9. —. Leading Index for Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NESLIND.

10. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate. [Online] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/T10YFF.

11. Survey Research Center, University of Michigan. Survey of Consumers. University of Michigan. [Online] http://www.press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/press_release.

12. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCNS.

13. —. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All items in Midwest urban. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CUUR0200SA0.

14. —. Employment Cost Index. Customized Tables. [Online] http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?ci.

15. —. Producer Price Index for All Commodities. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PPIACO.

16. —. Civilian Unemployment Rate. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE.

17. —. Unemployment Rate in Midwest Census Region. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMWRUR.

18. —. Unemployment Rate in Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEUR.

19. U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real Gross Domestic Product. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPC1.

20. Nebraska Department of Revenue. Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax Collections. Nebraska Department of Revenue. [Online] http://www.revenue.nebraska.gov/research/net_taxable_sales/sales_14/2014_non-mv.html.

21. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MCOILWTICO.

22. U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Balance of Payments on the Current Account. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IEABC.

Nebraska Department of LaborLabor Market Information

550 S. 16th StreetLincoln NE 68508

PHONE 800-876-1377lmi_ne@nebraska.gov

Photo by Marc Kleen on Unsplash