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NEAR THE END OF THORPEX –WHAT’S NEXT?

Acknowledgements: USTEC Members

WWOSC Townhall Meeting, 18 Aug 2014, Montreal, Canada

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WHAT WE ACCOMPLISHED

• Weather community became more organized / energetic

• Dialogue between academia & operations• More attention to use of forecasts• R&D & R2O accomplishments– Adaptive observational techniques• Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program

– Ensemble-based DA / covariance in variational DA• Hybrid GSI

– Multi-center ensemble system• North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

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WHERE WE FAILED

• Stakeholder Panel never formed– Low funding level, less than expected impact

• US coordination sub-optimal– International engagement less productive

• R&D misses– Optimal design of observing systems

• Evaluation, instead of design of observing systems

– DA for moist / finer scale processes– Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)

• Truly international probabilistic forecast effort

– SERA research• Lack of funding• Cost – benefit analysis of new observing/DA/ensemble systems

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OPPORTUNITIES

• Objective assessment of costs/benefits of weather research– Articulate societal need for / potential of weather

research• Coordinated national initiative– Broaden coalition - Engage more agencies

• R&D needs / gaps– Global nowcasting system• Cloud DA w remote observations, non-hydrostatic forecasting

– Decision support based on quantified forecast uncertainty• Forecasting expected impact of weather – not only weather

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USTEC RECOMMENDATIONS – 07/15/14

• Integrated high impact US weather project endorsed– One Earth, unified science/infrastructure, national level

societal needs, concerted effort/funding justification– USTSSC to develop plan incl link w 3 intl legacy projects

• Transform & rename USTEC & USTSSC– Current committees facilitate transformation & fill gaps

• Agencies & community consider forming a major US weather initiative– Galvanize community around societally

understandable /relevant focus– Post-THORPEX integrated weather project at core

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BACKGROUND

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THORPEX 101 – 2005-2014

• Objective– Accelerate improvements in high impact weather forecasts

• History– WMO/WWRP sponsored program launched in 2004

• Approach– Research related to end-to-end forecast process– Coordination across

• Components of forecast system– Observing, data assimilation, ensemble forecast, decision support systems

• Nations & regions• Research & operational communities

– Modernize / optimize forecast system• Allocate research resources to maximize overall economic impact• Adaptive & probabilistic approaches

– Observations, covariances, physics, decision procedures

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MAJOR US ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• $ 20+M THORPEX-related investments by agencies– Field campaigns, AOs, archives, etc

Developed, tested, & operationally implemented

• Adaptive observations– Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program

• National Weather Service

• Ensemble based data assimilation– Hybrid GSI-EnKF - NCEP

• Multi-center ensemble forecasting– North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

• NCEP, Canada, Mexico• + FNMOC - National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

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THORPEX & WWRP ORGANIZATION• World Weather Research Program (WWRP/CAS/WMO) WGs:

– Nowcasting, Mesoscale, Tropical Meteorology, Socioeconomic Research Applications (SERA), Numerical Experimentation (joint with WCRP), Verification• Joint Science Committee – JSC

• WWRP projects– Forecast & Research Demonstration Projects (FDPs & RDPs)

• Sochi, Vancouver, Beijing, Sidney, etc

• THORPEX program – supported by voluntary contributions to Trust Fund– International Core Steering Committee - ICSC

• Representatives of sponsoring organizations

– Data Assimilation & Observing Systems (DAOS)• Ron Gelaro (former co-chair), Tom Hamill

– Predictability & Dynamical Processes (PDP)• Istvan Szunyogh (co-chair), Craig Bishop

– Global Interactive Forecast System – THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (GIFS-TIGGE)• Zoltan Toth (former co-chair), Yuejian Zhu

– Regional Committees• (North) America (Malaquias Pena), Africa , Asia, Europe, Southern Hemisphere

– International Program Office – IPO• Coordination

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• Few standing WGs focusing on basic research areas– DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble/Predictability, SERA

• Time limited projects – supported by WGs & Trust Funds– Polar Prediction Project (PPP) – launched recently– Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) – launched recently

– Third major project (RRR?) – under discussion• What’s needed given– Societal needs &– Scientific opportunities in next 5-10 yrs?

SUGGESTED WWRP ORGANIZATION

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WHITE PAPER ON POSSIBLE 3RD PROJECTby ad hoc sub-group of ICSC

IMPACT FORECASTING (IF)• High impact weather (THORPEX theme)• From minutes to weeks (instead of 1-14 days)• Seamless weather – climate prediction– In context of changing climate

• Complement / support PPP & SSS projects• Forecast the IMPACT of weather (not weather only)– Fine scales needed for this

• Focus on mesocales (instead of synoptic scales)

THORPEX Townhall to provide input toInternational Planning Workshop

Karlsruhe, Germany, 18-19 March, 2013

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BACKGROUND

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MAJOR INTL. ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• Focus on weather forecast research– Science Symposia– Workshops– WG meetings– Training

• Enhanced interactions between research & operations– Training of forecasters, etc

• Globally engage weather forecast community– Africa health initiatives, etc

• TIGGE – Archive of operational global ensemble forecasts

• 10 provider, 3 archive centers

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US ORGANIZATION

• US THORPEX Executive Committee – USTEC– NASA Jared Entin– Navy Melinda

Peng– NOAA John

Conrtinas– NSF

Chungu Lu– US Representative to ICSC Zoltan Toth, Chair

• US THORPEX Science Steering Committee - USTSSC– Edmund Chang (Chair), Malaquias Pena (Co-chair)

• US Program Office– Supported by NASA, NOAA, NSF– Housed at NCAR – Pam Johnson

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INTERNATIONAL STATUS / ACTIVITIES• Funding - Lower than expected

– International, regional, and national / agency levels• Stakeholder Panel never organized / convened

• Organization– Observing System & DA WGs merged– SERA moved up under JSC/WWRP– Some ambiguity as to links between THORPEX & WWRP/JSC

• Research– Active WGs– Limited activities under RCs (except Europe?)

• Status report prepared for ICSC review– Delayed by 3 yrs

• Planning for 2 new WWRP initiatives– Polar & Sub-seasonal forecasting– Partially supported by THORPEX Trust Fund– Limited involvement from THORPEX WGs

• Legacy of THORPEX?– Plans to be discussed at ICSC meeting next month

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THORPEX LEGACY – OPTIONSTHORPEX formally ends Dec 2014

Trust Fund contributions cease• Option A

– DAOS WG integrated into WWRP WG structure (under all options)• Option B

– 5-10 yr extension; Trust Fund open for contributions; 3 WGs, RCs remain as funds permit

• Option C– New 10-yr environmental prediction initiative launched for seamless

prediction of high impact weather• In context of changing climate, in collaboration with WCRP• New Trust Fund initiated• Subseasonal/seasonal & polar prediction projects• THORPEX WGs may be sustained

• Option D– Like C except no “umbrella” program

• Coordination for projects provided by WWRP and its JSC– Like for other WWRP projects

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THORPEX LEGACY – USTEC STANCE

• THORPEX is big part of WWRP– THORPEX legacy & WWRP’s future tied

• Strong environmental prediction research supported– Hrs to seasons – either option C or D may work

• Science-based collaboration between WWRP & WCRP needed• Option D may be organizationally clearer• Link with US Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) program

– There may be limited US contributions (NSF)• Explore alternative funding sources (e.g., WWRP base, stakeholders)

• Clarify role of WGs vs. projects– Standing WGs promote research in basic areas

• DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble, SERA

– Time limited projects aimed at specific deliverables• Possibly regional focus• Leverage expertise in (re)new(ed) standing WGs• Reorganize other existing WGs into projects?• Sustain research – operations links & TIGGE archive

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US STATUS / ACTIVITIES• Continued funding for PO by agencies– Despite cut in NOAA funding

• USTSSC reconstituted– Activities resumed – workshop, etc

• Science plan completed– Intersection of process, forecast, & application studies

• US implementation plan for next 2-3 yrs– How Science Plan maps onto agency initiatives/interests– Form of post-THORPEX weather research?