thorpex implementation plan...

THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (TIP)• Prepared by Group of Experts on behalf of CAS ICSC for THORPE

Being drafted – Tentative, certain parts under discussion• Based on THORPEX International Science Plan• Research tasks under four major research areas:

Observing SystemsData Assimilation and Observing StrategiesPredictability and Dynamical ProcessesSocial and Economic Applications

• For each research task:ApproachTime scaleExpected outcomesInternational CooperationKey participantsInfrastructure requirementsLink with other programs

• Ingtegrated Forecast System - Demonstration projectsReal time test of integrated forecast process

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PREDICTABILITY AND DYNAMICAL PROCESSES TASKS

1) Predictive SkillAvailable Analysis/Forecast/Ensemble data sets

2) Ensemble PredictionTHOREPEX TIGGE – global ensemble prediction system

3) Bridge between Weather and Climate ForecastingClose collaboration with climate research

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PREDICTIVE SKILLa) Investigate effect of dynamical & physical processes on forecast skill

• Identify potentially predictable features, eg:Rossby wave initiation, propagation from tropics to extratropics & vcExtratropical transition of tropical cyclonesTeleconnectionsPhysical processes

• Improve NWP techniques to realize potential predictabilityFind and revise NWP model components/features limiting predictability

b) Assess skill & predictability as function of lead time and flow regime• Sub-seasonal, seasonal, interannual variability of skill/predictability

Climatology of skill/predictability• Flow regime dependence, eg: MJO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, QBO

Phase of indeces affect skill/predictabilityLarge-scale anomalies affect storm tracks & weather regimes

• NWP methods may be refined based / made adaptive• Analysis/Forecast/Ensemble data sets

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ANALYSIS/FORECAST/ENSEMBLE DATA SETSFor each data set, provide:

Title Description Contributing organizationContact personAccess information with optional sample softwareSuggested research use

a) Reanalysis data setsECMWF (ERA-40, global)NCEP/NCAR (global), with “reforecast” (hindcast) dataNCEP Regional reanalysis

b) Ensemble forecast data setsNCEP operational ensemble forecast archiveCDC ensemble reforecast dataUCSD/Scripps ensemble reforecast data

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ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONa) Investigate role of model errors in forecasting via ensembles

• Separate initial vs. model related forecast errors• Trace model-related errors to responsible model components• Improve NWP modeling techniques to reduce model errors

b) Investigate effect of initial condition uncertainty on forecasts• Use OSSEs etc to study evolution of analysis errors in forecasts

• Evaluate effectiveness of existing initial ensemble perturbation techniques

c) Develop improved ensemble prediction systems• Improve ensemble generation techniques to better represent all

• Initial condition (analysis) & • Model related uncertainty

d) Explore use of adaptive methods in ensemble generation• Study optimal configuration (eg, membership vs. resolution) as function of

• Flow regimes• Socio-economic applications

• Develop adaptive methods• Use more members/higher resolution for high impact cases/areas

e) Multi-center ensemble research• Combine ensembles from different NWP centers

• Unique sampling of initial, model, ensemble generation errors• Establish TIGGE centers to facilitate research and data access

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THORPEX INTERACTIVE GRAND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE (TIGGE)Collection of archived and near-real time ensembles from multiple centers

OBJECTIVES:• Facilitate collaborative ensemble research, especially multi-center aspect through

Access to archived operational ensemble data from multiple centersProvision of standard software (eg, verification, display, etc tools)

• Provide real (or near-real) time forecasts for demonstration projectsMulti-center ensemble may have skill exceeding that of any contributing center

MECHANISM:• Developing North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) used as

prototypeMeteorological Service of Canada & NCEP combined ensembleUK MetOffice plans joining

• 2-4 “mirror” sites established at volunteering NWP centersExchange, collection, & archiving of forecasts from 5-10 sourcesBias correction of all ensemble componentsProduct generation (easy, multiple level interrogation tools)Verification (reliability & resolution)

LONG-TERM GOAL:B THORPEX l “Gl b l E bl P di ti S t ” (GEPS)

BRIDGE WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTINGCURRENT STATUS:• Disjoint processes for weather & climate forecasting• Primary initial conditions for

Weather forecasting (days 1-10) Atmposphere (2-3 hrs delay)Climate forecasting (beyond 2 mos) Ocean (~2 wks delay)

• For successful sub-seasonal (10-60 days) forecasts –Need BOTH atmosphere & ocean initial conditions

GOAL:• Unify currently disjoint weather & climate forecast activities

Make oceanic observations available without any delayDevelop new initialization & coupling techniquesExplore use of mixed-layer models as intermediate solutionDevelop initial/model perturbation techniques for coupled forecastingStudy intra-seasonal performance of different coupled systemsContinue studying simple linear stochastically forced inverse models

ADVANTAGES:Improved skill for both weather & climate forecast rangesShared knowledge, techniques, infrastructure, resourcesSeamless suite of forecastsComputational savings

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DATA ASSIMILATION AND OBSERVING STRATEGIES

1) Improve use of observationsFocus on description of water cycle

2) Develop adaptive data assimilation proceduresSearch for best techniques in nonlinear, imperfect model environment

3) Enhance observation targeting techniquesContribute to observational network design/optimization

IMPROVE USE OF OBSERVATIONS

a) Quantify observational errors• Separate different sources of errors, such as:

InstrumentRepresentativeness andPhysical parameterization related errors

• Test effect of improved error specification

b) Improve use of remotely sensed observations• Develop methods to extract info from high volume data sets

Adaptive thinning/super-obingBest use of hyper-spectral sounders

• Develolop new methods for geostationary satellite observationsDirect use of image sequences in NWP data assimilationBetter height assignment methodsImproved use in cloudy and land areas

c) Improve assimilation of physical processes• Eg, diabatic heating & other processes

Infer information from Active microwave sensorsCloud & precipitation image sequencies 9

ADAPTIVE DATA ASSIMILATION PROCEDURES

a) Use flow-dependent background error covariance information based on:Ensemble forecastsGradient of flowOrography, etc

b) Cycle flow dependent background covariance informationTest ensemble-based assimilation methodsAssess need for cycling with 4-DVAR assimilation schemes

c) Develop adaptive quality control proceduresMake quality control decisions depend on flow-specific background errors

d) Consider model uncertainty in data assimilation proceduresDevelop/tune statistical algorithms to diagnose/correct systematic biasAccount for errors related to processes unresolved by model

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TARGETING TECHNIQUES / OBSERVING SYSTEM DESIGN

a) Observation targeting methods• Test and refine existing methods using OSE & OSSE approaches• Generalize methods for use in highly nonlinear scenarios such as:

Medium range for synoptic scalesShort range for cases with strong influence from physical processes

• Test & analyze use of new methods in various scenarios such as:Hurricane track/intensity forecastingHeavy mid-latitude summer precipitation casesExtended-range (week 2) predictions

• Observational network design• Develop new methods to be used in observing system design

Use OSSE & OSE experimentsFocus on high impact weather

• Find optimal configuration for adaptive and fixed componentsFill gaps in current system with adaptive observations

Identify adaptively useable platforms

• Coordinate with relevant WMO & other observing programsNeed for careful planning on regional and global scale

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OPERATIONAL NEEDS -NOAA PERSPECTIVE ON THORPEX

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LINK WITH NWS STIP PROCESS

National Weather Service (NWS) –NOAA’s operational weather forecast provider

NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) –Operational requirements should motivate all service oriented research

Research must have thread to operations &Credible path to operational implementation

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS

THORPEX seeks advanced knowledge on two fronts:Nature (atmospheric and related processes)Forecast procedures (OBS, DA, FCST & SA techniques)

Integrating knowledge from two areas leads to new forecast paradigm of

INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, AND USER CONTROLLABLE FCST PROCESS13

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NOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTS

NOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS

NEW NWP

Sub-systems developed in coordinationEnd-to-end forecast processStrong feedback among componentsTwo-way interaction Error/uncertainty accounted for

TRADITIONAL NWP

Each discipline developed on its ownDisjoint steps in forecast processLittle or no feedbackOne-way flow of informationUncertainty in process ignored

INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

SYSTEMSOCIOEC.SOCIOEC.

SYSTEM

LINK WITH NOAA MISSION GOAL

NOAA’S 3rd MISSION GOAL – sounds like excerpt from THORPEX doc.: NOAA will “provide integrated observations, predictions, and advice for decision makers to manage… environmental resources”.

Mission strategies and measures of successdirectly correspond with

THORPEX Sub-program areas:

NOAA MISSION STRATEGY THORPEX FORECAST COMPONENTSMonitor and Observe ObservationsUnderstand and Describe Data AssimilationAssess and Predict ForecastingEngage, Advise, and Inform Socio-economic Applications

Different Line Offices responsible for various forecast components –

NEED FOR NEW MATRIX MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATION

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NOAA THORPEX OBJECTIVES

1) Develop new forecast procedures leading to 2) Improved operational NWP forecasts; and3) Develop/adapt cost/benefit tools to measure resulting societal impact

ULTIMATE MEASURE OF SUCCESS

The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program will be measured in a unique and comprehensive way. The program will be considered successful if the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools (point 3 above) indicate that the forecast improvements (point 2) due to the new THORPEX procedures (point 1) can be achieved operationally in a cost-effective manner. That is, the incremental economic and societal benefits associated with the use of the new THORPEX forecast procedures outweigh their implementation and maintenance costs.

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NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX• 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists

• Apr 2000 First International Meeting

• Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed

• Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting

• Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting

• Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan

• Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Committee formed

• Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment (PTOST)

• Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity

• Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received

• Oct-Dec 03 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATREC)

• Feb 04 Scientific review and evaluation of AO proposals completed

• Apr-Jun 04 Grants for 12 out of 25 proposals distributed

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CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES

TIP – “OBSERVING SYSTEM” TIP – “DATA ASSIMILATION…”

TIP – “PREDICTABILITY &DYNAMICAL PROCESSES”

TIP – “SOCIAL & ECONOMICAPPLICATIONS”

TIP

NTSIP

SOCIOECON.

DIRECT LINK BETWEEN NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (NTSIP) AND

THORPEX INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN & THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (TIP)

SYSTEM

THORPEX GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE(TIGGE)

THORPEX OBJECTIVESINTERNATIONAL PROGRAM

SCIENCE GOAL:Promote research leading to new techniques in:

Observations (OBS), Data assimilation (DA), Forecasting (FCST), and Socioeconomic Applications (SA)


SERVICE GOAL:Accelerate improvements in utility of forecasts for high impact weather

THORPEX ANSWER:Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting through

Enhanced collaboration on international levelbetween research & operations

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THORPEX OBJECTIVESSYNERGISTIC COLLABORATION

SCIENCE GOAL – SHARED WITH ALL PARTICIPANTSDevelop new paradigm for weather forecasting

All participants contribute to advancing same science objective


SERVICE GOAL – MAY BE DIFFERENT FOR EACH AGENCY/NATIONAccelerate improvements in utility of forecasts for high impact weather

Severe weather (Asia?)1-3 day weather (Europe?)

All participants share service applications among themselves

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THORPEX OBJECTIVES

NOAA SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL

Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at:

Short-range forecast problem: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc

Seasonal & climate forecast problem: CLIVAR, GAPP, etc

THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs:

Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful

3-7 day precipitation forecasts8-14 day daily weather forecasts

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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

Based on NOAA THORPEX Science & Implementation Plan

Coordinated with US/NA/International activities - TIP

ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM

TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS

REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS)

INFRASTRUCTURE

MANAGEMENT

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DISCUSSION ON THORPEX -LINKS BETWEEN OPERATIONAL & RESEARCH COMMUNITIES

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Based on NOAA THORPEX Science & Implementation Plan

Coordinated with US/NA/International activities - TIP

ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM



INFRASTRUCTURE

MANAGEMENT

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ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT:

Funded through base & other projects (not through THORPEX)

THORPEX needs to build stronger links with these for full mutual benefit

Observing System: ETL, NESDIS/ORA, FSL, AL; Link w. GEOSS

Data Assimilation: EMC, JCSDA, CDC

Forecast System: EMC, FSL, CDC, AL (Environmental Modeling Program)

Socioeconomic Applications: ETL, EMC, CDC, SIP (Collabor. w. NCAR)

Cross-cutting Activities: EMC, ETL; Link with NAEFS, IPY

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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIESPEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM:

Funded through NOAA THORPEX AOIndividual research studiesCollaborative projectsBalanced among 4 major research areas

CURRENT STATUS:12 grants distributed in competitive NOAA THORPEX 2004 AO process1) Observing System: 1 satellite & 1 in-situ study

2) Data Assimilation: Ensemble-based DA inter-comparison project(4 studies, CDC, UM, NCAR, NRL, CS)

Adaptive obs (1 study)3) Forecast System: Model errors & ensembles (2 studies)

Adaptive modeling procedures (1 study)4) Socioeconomic Applic.: 1 study (value of weather forecasts)Cross-cutting Activities: 1 study (OSSE method development)

PLAN: Initiate new THORPEX projects through NOAA Grants ProgramAreas with special need: Model errors in DA & ensemble forecasting

Socioeconomic forecast applications (including stat. post-processing)



Establish link with operations for each research study/projectProvide partner within NOAA for path to operations

Communicate operational requirementsProvide data/software access/supportOffer science consultation/adviceFacilitate collaboration/coordination among studies / within projectsPreferred form of work is through collaborative projects

Establish model errors & ensemble forecasting project?

Fund through set-aside fraction of research grant amount (20-33% of grants)

Currently only limited resources (100k for ATREC-related work in FY04)Need to expand in order to link with all research grant studies/projects

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GOAL: Test, demonstrate, and evaluate the new forecast process withintegrated, adaptive, and user controlled elements

TYPES OF PROJECTS (in hierarchical order):THORPEX Observing System Tests (TOST) Limited scope, focus on observing systemTHORPEX Regional Campaigns (TREC) Test integrated forecast processTHORPEX Demonstration Projects As TREC but linked with other programsTHORPEX Global Campaign Major demonstration near end of program

EXAMPLES:AMMA (2005-07) Life cycle of tropical storms

2006, additional observations; test impact of data on NWP skill (low/mod. cost)

IPY (2007-09) Atmosph. component of IPY, obs. system test, polar-extratropical links06/07 test new obs platforms (lower cost); 07/08 full demo period, higher cost

Olympics (’08,etc) Emphasis on social/economic applicationsGEOSS (10yrs) Atmosph. component in GEOSS, prototype for integrated use of data

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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIESINFRASTRUCTUREOperational Test Center (OTC; planned jointly with JCSDA)

Ensure access of researchers to operational forecast environmenta) Needed to support research grant program (research to operations transition)b) Leverage off JCSDA Test Facility (with broader focus, incl. forecasting/applications beyond DA)

Jointly funded with JCSDA - Basic funding plus contributions from research grants

c) Provide computer facilities (on backup computer?), operatnl software, & technical supportd) Accessible through THORPEX & other peer reviewed grant programs

THORPEX Global Ensemble Prediction System (TIGGE or TGEPS)Expand from successful implementation of NAEFS to include UK Metoffice for creation of multinational component of future TGEPSBasic forecast support for demonstration projects, socio-economic applications, etcNorth American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS, jointly with Canadians)

THORPEX Data Base (TDB)Establish THORPEX data base for national/international researchStore observational, numerical analysis, forecast, and application dataa) Establish & provide access to archive of operational and research data bases (NOMAD)b) Data types: Observations, re-analysis, ensemble, applications, demo projects, etcc) Funding through basic support plus contributions from research grants

TelecommunicationsTransfer huge data sets for research & demo projects - GLORIAD

NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIESMANAGEMENTInternational commitments

IPO (partial support)ISSC co-chair (partial support, currently from USWRP)

NOAA THORPEX managementUnder NWS Science & Technology Infusion Plan

Marty Ralph, program managerNOAA THORPEX Executive Committee NTEC):

Advice, Line Office concurrence/committmentNOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Committee (NTSIC):

Prepares/updates NOAA THORPEX Long-term PlanResearch Grant selection recommendations

Chair of NTSIC is NOAA THORPEX Program Element Manager (NTPM)Leads/coordinates NOAA THORPEX program elementPrepares budget/funding recommendations

Administrative Assistant for NOAA THORPEX program (planned):Administrative work:Administrative assistant for NTPM & NTSIC

Research grants processing (review, reporting, etc)Support for budget planning

Organizational work: NOAA natl/internatl collabor., field exps, demo projectsOperational implementationMeetings

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NOAA THORPEXEXECUTIVECOMMITTEE

(NTEC)

NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART –ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

NOAA THORPEXSCIENCE AND

IMPLEMENTATIONCOMMITTEE

(NTSIC)

1) Provide overall guidance

2) Secure necessary funding

3) Make all funding decisions

1) Develop and update NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan

2) Evaluate proposals submitted to NOAA THORPEX Research Grant Program (AO)

CHAIR

CHAIR

1) Leads committee, makes final decisions if it lacks consensus

2) Interfaces with USWRP/ International Executive Commit.

3) Interfaces with Chair of NTSIC

1) Leads and coordinates NOAA THORPEX Program as directed by NTEC

2) Prepares draft budget

3) Recommends funding for:Research grants

Operational implementationInfrastructureInternational commitments, etc

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NTEC MEMBERSJ. Hayes, D-OST/NWS

J. Kimpel, OAR

M. Colton, D-ORA/NESDIS

NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART - LINKS

CHAIR

L. Uccellini, D

-NCEP/N

WS

CHAIR

Z. Toth,EM

C/NCEP

NOAA SeniorManagement

NOAA LineOffices

NOAA Res. Labs:AL, CDC, ETL, FSL, ORA

USW

RPCo-Chairs:

L. Uccellini&

T. Killeen

ICSC, IPOChair: M

. BelandU

S Rep.: L. U

ccellini

NA SS C

C o-C hai rs:D

. P ars on s & P. G

a ut hie r

ISSCCo-Chairs:

M. Shapiro &

A. Thorpe

NOAA Joint Inst.:JCSDA, CIMMS, SIP

NTSIC MEMBERSObs. Systems: J. Daniels (ORA), D. Emmitt (SWA), C. Velden (U. Wisc/SIMMS)

Data Assim: C. Bishop (NRL), L.-P. Riishojgaard (NASA/JCSDA)

Forecasting: J. Hansen (MIT), G. Kiladis (AL), S. Koch (FSL), J. Whitaker/T. Hamill (CDC)

SA Applications: R. Morss (NCAR), J. Wilczak (ETL)

NWS-NCEP Operational ImplementationsF. Toepfer

International Forecasting ActivitiesNOAA THORPEX Administrative Assistant

STAFF: Z. Toth, NTSIC ChairM. Ralph & F. Toepfer, PPBES

Consistent with D. Rogers Memo of 7/9/2003,

establishing NTEC & NTSIC

NOAA & REST OF US COMMUNITY

NOAA has major interest in THORPEX & its links with GEOSS, IPY, etc

Need to ramp up program to level of expectations

Strong support for applied research & operational applications

Other agencies’ interest may complement NOAA’s efforts

NSF More basic research with potential long-term benefits

ONR Global-to-local influences?

NASA Remote sensing research & applications?

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BACKGROUND

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NOAA’S INVOLVMENT IN THORPEX

• 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists

• Apr 2000 First International Meeting

• Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed

• Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting

• Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting

• Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan

• Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee formed

• Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity

• Sept 15 Deadline for Full Proposals

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THORPEX:A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN

Based largely on work of NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting (October 21-22 2002):

• NOAA NWS– Zoltan Toth– Naomi Surgi

• NOAA OAR– Melvyn Shapiro– Jeff Whitaker

• Outside NOAA– Craig Bishop NRL– David Carlson NCAR– Ron Gelaro NASA

– Rebecca Morss NCAR– John Murray NASA– Chris Snyder NCAR

Acknowledgements:

D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S. Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin

With further input from NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team

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THORPEX:A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN

INTRODUCTION New forecast paradigm

SCIENCE PLAN Major ThemesOpen Science QuestionsResearch and Development Tasks

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Work PlanDeliverablesPerformance measuresEducation/OutreachPath to Operations

APPENDIX Link with NOAA Strategic GoalsNWS STIP Process 37

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WEATHER FORECASTING FOR DAYS 3-14

• Based on guidance from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models• Quality tied with that of NWP model forecasts

• Components of NWP forecasting:

Fig. 1. Comparison of error in 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecasts made at 12-hour lead-time by three NCEP NWP models (NGM – frozen benchmark; AVN –operational global; and ETA – operational regional models) with that in the ensuingvalue-added official HPC forecast. Courtesy of the National Precipitation VerificationUnit and HPC/NCEP.

Observing system –Collect data

Data assimilation -Prepare initial conditions

Forecast procedures –Run numerical model

Societal & economic applictns –Post-process, add value,

apply

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TRADITIONAL FORECAST APPROACH

• Each discipline developed on its own

• Disjoint steps in forecast process

• Little or no feedback• One-way flow of

information• Uncertainty in process

ignored

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STATUS QUO SCENARIO

• As in any learning process, improvements become harder as skill advances

• Maintaining or accelerating rate of improvements not possible with current status quo approach/resources

Substantial resources spent on improving NWP

Forecast skill improves with time

Is this acceptable when sensitivity/vulnerability of society to weather increases?

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THORPEX SOLUTION:

REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS• Invest in major new NWP program =>

• Develop new NWP proceduresINTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

Return – Pace of forecast improvement maintained/accelerated

• Assess costs and societal/economic benefits of new procedures

• Implement operationally most cost effective new methodsReturn – Enhanced cost effectiveness of

operational procedures - Credibility

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NEW NWP PARADIGM - 1

INTEGRATED NWP

• Sub-systems developed in coordintation

• End-to-end forecast process• Strong feedback• Two-way interaction among

components• Error/uncertainty accounted

for at each

Based on better understanding of forecast process

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INTEGRATEDADAPTIVEBased on more detailed understanding of natural processes• Allows more differentiated, case dependent

methods/procedures• Exmples

– Observations – Adaptive platform collects data to fill gaps due to clouds– Data assimilation – Flow dependent forecast error estimates– Forecasting – Case dependent modeling algorithms –

e. g., hurricane relocation– Applications – Probabilistic forecast reflects all forecast info => ultimate

adaptation of user procedures to weather

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USER CONTROLLABLEBased on:

– 2-way interactions (improved forecast process)– Adaptive approach (better understanding of nature)

• Forecast process– Traditionally driven by FIXED user requirements– Now responsive to CHANGING user needs

• User needs connected to observational, data assimilation, and forecast systems– Dynamical analysis of nature & forecast process– New, NWP model based tools– Fully interactive forecast process

• Example: User identifies critical forecast weather event

Special observational or forecast proceduresImproved targeted forecast

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SCIENCE OBJECTIVE:REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS -

INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

NEW NWPSub-systems developed in coordinationEnd-to-end forecast processStrong feedback among componentsTwo-way interaction Error/uncertainty accounted for

TRADITIONAL NWP Each discipline developed on its ownDisjoint steps in forecast processLittle or no feedbackOne-way flow of informationUncertainty in process ignored

SERVICE GOAL: IMPROVE 3-14 DAY FORECASTS

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Isolated examples exist• INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT

– NPOESS instrument/platform design:Input from OSSE work (data assimilation/forecasting needs considered)

• ADAPTIVE APPROACH– GFDL hurricane model runs at NWS when needed

• USER CONTROL – WSR program at NWS– Threat of winter storm – potential societal impact– Dynamical calculations– Targeted observations collected– Targeted data inserted in analysis/forecast process

From the EXCEPTION, THORPEX will make interactive, adaptive, & user controlled methods the RULE

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NEED FOR COLLABORATIVE PROGRAM• Interdisciplinary research

– Different groups/agencies/nations need to collaborate• Integrated approach to NWP – 4 sub-systems

• Practical goal – Research + Operations

• Challenging program– Need critical mass of resources

• Intellectual

• Material

• Synergistic activities• Priorities of other agencies may be different• Common overarching THORPEX themes

• Complementary efforts• Leveraging of resources

• Global data and all NWP methods universally needed

INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM HIGHLY DESIRABLE

NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW

ANSWER SCIENCE QUESTIONSAdvance basic knowledge,

directed explicitly toward NWP applicationsEach task must be conceived as part of overall program

DEVELOP NEW METHODSSub-system development

Academic researchCross-cutting activities

Academic + operational centersInfrastructure / Core tasks

Facilitate other activities - Strong agency involvementOperational Test FacilityReal time test and demonstration

RECOMMEND/PREPARE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATIONIntegral part of programStrong participation by operational centers 48

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SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES

• Observing system (OBS)• Data assimilation (DA)• Forecast procedures (FCST)• Socio-economic Applications (SA)

• Cross-cutting activities

• Core tasks

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SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 1

• OBSERVING SYSTEM– New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to complement

existing network– Adaptive observing instruments/platforms– For large data sets

• Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil.(Joint work with data assimilation)

• Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)

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SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 2• Observing system• DATA ASSIMILATION

– Improve techniques• Forward models, transfer codes

• Thinning of data• Treatment of data with correlated errors

– Advanced methods to use case dependent covariance• 4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error covariance• Ensemble based techniques• Treatment of model errors

– Adaptive observing techniques• Quick use of targeted data (“pre-emptive” forecasting)• Methods in the presence of

– Strong non-linearities

– Model error• Effectiveness of targeted data in analyses/forecasts• Effect on climatological applications of data

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• Observing system• Data assimilation• FORECAST PROCEDURES

– Initial ensemble perturbations (Joint with data assimilation)• Role of non-modal behavior

– Separate model related error from initial value errors• Systematic vs. random errors• Atmospheric features most affected

– Critical model features responsible for different errors• Improve model formulation to reduce errors (Coupling techniques)• Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty in ensembles• Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques

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• Observing system• Data assimilation• Forecast procedures• SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS

– Probabilistic forecasting• Statistical post-processing

• New procedures for intermediate and end users

– Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process• Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms (Joint with Observtns.)

– Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP process• New NWP verification measure

– Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures• Equitable use of NWP resources

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CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIESIntegrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)• Data needs of NWP

– What variables/resolution/accuracy required– Instrument/platform neutral assessment

• What instruments/platforms can provide data needs– Existing and new in-situ & remote platforms– Adaptive component to complement fixed network– Most cost effective solution

• Relative value of improvements in four sub-systems– Improvements in which sub-system offer best return? – Reallocation of resources

• Test of proposed operational configurations– Major field program if needed– Cost/benefit analysis - Select most cost effective version

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CORE TASKS

Needed for efficient research & planned operationsStrong agency involvement• THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts)

– Information Technology challenge • High data volume

• Transmission• Storage of data

• Foster collaboration in critical areas– Workshops (Societal and economic impacts)– Joint proposals – Interdisciplinary collaboration– Critical in past programs like FASTEX

• Test-bed – Pathway from research to operations– Formal procedure for researchers to follow– Melting pot for new ideas– Venue for cross-cutting activities

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COSTS/DELIVERABLES

• Costs: – Research program

• Integrated concept – need to fund research in all four areas of NWP

– Operational implementation

• Deliverables– New observing, data

assimilation, forecasting, & application tools to implement integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP

– Acceleration in current NWP improvements

Socio-economic benefits must outweigh operational costs

thorpex implementation plan...

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