Model error diagnosis: One possible contribution of the PDP community to the THORPEX goals

Thomas Jung1,2 & members of the THORPEX PDP and WGNE & Mark Rodwell

1European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

2Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI)

Outline

Model error diagnosis Activities following the PDP/WGNE Workshop on

"Diagnosis of Model Errors“ Extratropical cyclone diagnostics Hand-over to Mark Rodwell

What is model error diagnosis?

Research that aims at understanding model errors at the process level

Research that aids model development• What is going wrong (descriptive)?• Which regions are crucial (for certain errors)?• Which processes are crucial? • What is going wrong and how could this be improved?

Development of diagnostic techniques

Advise model developersWork together with model developers

The PDP-WGNE workshop

Workshop report available from the THORPEX website!

Actions: „Model error diagnosis“ workshop

Start joint project on the Indian Summer Monsoon• Build on collaboration between ECMWF and UK Met Office• Discuss ongoing research in mailing group• Report progress in future meetings

Start joint project on Cyclonic systems• Work on refining existing techniques to understand CS• Give presentation entitled Diagnosis of Cyclonic Systems at the

cylone workshop in Monterey

Both projects• Should consider NWP and climate models• Benefit from Transpose AMIP activities• Develop proposals that can be put forward to WGNE

Actions: „Model error diagnosis“ workshop

Report workshop results in upcoming meetings• 26th session of WGNE (Dave Burride)• Cyclone workshop in Monterey (no presentation)• AWI/IUP block seminar (T. Jung, model error diagnosis)• EGU Vienna 2011 (T. Jung, Relaxation diagnostics in seasonal

forecasting)• THORPEX European regional meeting (T. Jung, model error diagnosis)• WWRP-JSC meeting in late winter 2011 (Mark Rodwell?)

Publish workshop report in BAMS• Chris Capella from BAMS has been contacted• First response (although late) was positive• Later Chris became concerned given that the workshop report has been

published• Chris wanted to tallk to editors (no response yet)

Impact: New convection scheme

Jung et al. (2010), QJRMS

Extratropical cyclone composites

Z850 Dynamics VDiff

Convection

Mean 6-hr wind-tend 925hPa Short-range forecasts (old and new convection)

ERA-Interim period Archiving of tendencies Selection of 100 most

intense winter storms Compositing

Hodges and Jung, work in progress

Extratropical cyclone composites: New-old

Z850

Convection

6-hr T-Tend Diff Conv 700hPa

6-hr T-Tend Diff Cloud 700hPaZ500 Diff

Diagnosis of cyclonic systems

Work on producing extratropical cyclone composites for simulated physical processes has started.

Composites for mean analysis increments have been produced (interpretation does not seem straightforward → collaboration with Mark Rodwell)

Produce composites for other quanitities Ensemble spread (see also work by Simon Lang) Observation usage

Considerable progress possible

Handover to Mark Rodwell

Thank you!