navigating peace initiative: water conflict and cooperation

7/31/2019 Navigating Peace Initiative: Water Conflict and Cooperation

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EnvironmEntal ChangE and SECurity progr

6

Water Conflict and Cooperation: Looking Over the HorizonTherealityofwatersrolesinconictandcoopera-

tion is more complex than the political rhetoric o

water wars oten implies. While the potential or

violent and social conict over water is clear, the level

o this conict is not so clear-cut. Exhaustive researchbyAaronWolfofOregonStateUniversityhasrmly

established that international violent conict is rare-

lyi evercaused by, or ocused on, water resourc-

es. Historically, ormal and inormal international

political institutions managing water have adapted to

increased scarcity without resorting to the expensive

and inefcient means o war to secure water supplies.

Instead, nations cooperate to manage their shared

water resources (although equity and power dier-

ences mean all cooperation is not the same).

Thishistorydoesnot,however,closethedooron

thepossibilityofwaterwars.By2050,asmanyas

7billionpeoplemorethancurrentlyaliveinthe

world todaymay live under conditions o water

scarcityandstress.Alargebodyofscholarlyresearch

suggests that environmental degradation may cata-

lyze violent conict within states, so the uture may

not resemble the past.

However, little systematic research examines an

important corollary: that environmental cooperation

may be a useul catalyst or regional peacemaking.

Theuniquequalitiesofwatercouldprovidethecor-

nerstone or eorts to build confdence and peacein regions with unsettled interstate relations. Shared

water resources could oer avenues or trust build-

ing that can in turn support predictable and more

enmeshed relations among potential adversaries.

TheNavigatingPeaceInitiativesWaterConict

and Cooperation Working Group commissioned

our policy bries to identiy the current and emerg-

ing trends in water conict and cooperation. With

the generous support o the Carnegie Corporation o

NewYork,andledbyECSPDirectorGeoffDabelko,

the working group sought to:

Understand the current mix o conict and coop-eration over water along wider continua o conict

and at more levels o analysis than have customar-

ily been considered;

Anticipatefuturepossibilitiesforviolentwater

conict given the negative indicators in many

areas o water management; and

Formulate proactive steps or heading o conict

and encouraging cooperation.

Water Conflict and CooperationWorking Group Members

Inger Andersen,World Bank

Kent Butts, U.S.ArmyWarCollege

Ken Conca, University o Maryland

Geoffrey Dabelko,Woodrow Wilson

International Center or Scholars

Kirk Emerson, UniversityofArizona

Patricia Kameri-Mbote, Strathmore University,

NairobiAaron Salzberg, U.S. Department o State

Anthony Turton, TouchStoneResourcesand

InternationalWaterResourceAssociation

Aaron Wolf, Oregon State University

Howard Wolpe,Woodrow Wilson International

Center or Scholars

Navigating Peace

Initiative


2/2066

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT

Water wars are coming! the newspaper headlines scream. It seems obviousrivalries over water have been the source o disputes since humans settled down to

cultivate ood. Even our language reects these ancient roots: Rivalry comes rom

the Latin rivalis, or one using the same river as another. Countries or provinces

bordering the same river (known as riparians) are oten rivals or the water they

share.Asthenumberofinternationalriverbasins(andimpactofwaterscarcity)

has grown, so do the warnings that these countries will take up arms to ensure their

accesstowater.In1995,forexample,WorldBankVicePresidentIsmailSerageldin

claimed that the wars o the next century will be about water.

Theseapocalypticwarningsyin thefaceofhistory:Nonationshavegoneto

war specifcally over water resources or thousands o years. International water

disputes even among ferce enemiesare resolved peaceully, even as conictserupt over other issues. In act, instances o cooperation between riparian nations

outnumberedconictsbymorethantwotoonebetween1945and1999.Why?

Because water is so important, nations cannot aord to fght over it. Instead, water

fuelsgreaterinterdependence.Bycomingtogethertojointlymanagetheirshared

water resources, countries can build trust and prevent conict. Water can be a nego-

tiating tool, too: It can oer a communication lieline connecting countries in the

midstofcrisis.Thus,bycryingwaterwars,doomsayersignoreapromisingwayto

helppreventwar: cooperative water resources management.

O course, people competesometimes violentlyor water. Within a nation,

usersarmers, hydroelectric dams, recreational users, environmentalistsare oten

at odds, and the probability o a mutually acceptable solution alls as the number ostakeholdersrises.Waterisneverthesingleandhardlyeverthemajorcauseof

conict. But it can exacerbate existing tensions. History is littered with examples o

violent water conicts: Just as Caliornian armers bombed pipelines moving water

fromOwensValleytoLosAngelesintheearly1900s,ChinesefarmersinShandong

clashed with police in 2000 to protest government plans to divert irrigation water to

Navigating Peace

JULY 2006

NO. 1

(PhotoAvnerVengosh)

Water Can Be a PathWay to PeaCe,

not WarBy Aaron T. Wolf, Annika Kramer, Alexander Carius, and Geoffrey D. Dabelko


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67

WATER CAN BE A PATHWAY TO PEACE, NOT WAR

cities and industries. But these conicts usually break

out withinnations. International rivers are a dier-

ent story.

Theworlds263 internationalriverbasinscover

45.3percentofEarthslandsurface,hostabout40

percent o the worlds population, and account or

approximately60percentofglobalriverow.And

the number is growing, largely due to the inter-

nationalization o basins through political chang-

es like the breakup o the Soviet Union, as well as

improved mapping technology. Strikingly, territory

in145nationsfallswithininternationalbasins,and

33countriesarelocatedalmostentirelywithinthese

basins.Asmanyas17countriesshareoneriverbasin,

the Danube.

Contrary to received wisdom, evidence shows this

interdependence does not lead to war. Researchers

at Oregon State University compiled a dataset o

nmb Cis Si ri Bsi

NUMBER OF

COUNTRIESINTERNATIONAL BASINS

3

Asi (Orontes), Awash, Cavally, Cestos, Chiloango, Dnieper, Dniester, Drin, Ebro,Essequibo, Gambia, Garonne, Gash, Geba, Har Us Nur, Hari (Harirud), Helmand, Hondo, Ili(Kunes He), Incomati, Irrawaddy, Juba-Shibeli, Kemi, Lake Prespa, Lake Titicaca-PoopoSystem, Lempa, Maputo, Maritsa, Maroni, Moa, Neretva, Ntem, Ob, Oueme, Pasvik,Red (Song Hong), Rhone, Ruvuma, Salween, Schelde, Seine, St. John, Sulak, Torne(Tornealven), Tumen, Umbeluzi, Vardar, Volga, and Zapaleri

4 Amur, Daugava, Elbe, Indus, Komoe, Lake Turkana, Limpopo, Lotagipi Swamp, Narva,Oder (Odra), Ogooue, Okavango, Orange, Po, Pu-Lun-To, Senegal, and Struma

5 La Plata, Neman, and Vistula (Wista)

6Aral Sea, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Jordan, Kura-Araks, Mekong, Tarim, Tigris andEuphrates (Shatt al Arab), and Volta

8 Amazon and Lake Chad

9 Rhine and Zambezi

10 Nile

11 Congo and Niger

17 Danube

Note: From International River Basins of the World by Aaron T. Wolf et al., 1999, International Journal of WaterResources Development 15(4), 387-427. Adapted with permission of the author.


4/2068


every reported interaction (conictive or coopera-

tive) between two or more nations that was driven

bywaterinthelasthalfcentury.Theyfoundthat

the rate o cooperation overwhelms the incidence o

acuteconict.Inthelast50years,only37disputes

involvedviolence,and30ofthoseoccurredbetween

Israel and one o its neighbors. Outside o the Middle

East,researchersfoundonly5violentevents,while

157treatieswerenegotiatedandsigned.Thetotal

number o water-related events, between nations also

favors cooperation:The1,228cooperativeevents

dwarfthe507conict-relatedevents.Despitethe

fery rhetoric o politiciansaimed more oten at

their own constituencies than at the enemymost

actions taken over water are mild. O all the events,

more than 60 percent are verbal, and more than two-

thirds o these were not ofcial statements.

Simply put, water is a greater pathway to peace

than conict in the worlds international river basins.

International cooperation around water has a long

and successul history; some o the worlds most

vocierous enemies have negotiated water agree-

ments.Theinstitutionstheyhavecreatedareresil-

ient,evenwhenrelationsarestrained.TheMekongCommittee, or example, established by Cambodia,

Laos,Thailand,andVietnamin1957,exchanged

data and inormation on the river basin throughout

the Vietnam War.

Israel and Jordan held secret picnic table talks

tomanagetheJordanRiverstartingin1953,even

though they were ofcially at war rom 1948 until

the1994treaty.TheIndusRiverCommissionsur-

vivedtwomajorwarsbetweenIndiaandPakistan.

Andall10Nilebasinripariancountriesarecurrently

involvedin senior governmentlevel negotiationsto develop the basin cooperatively, despite the ver-

bal battles conducted in the media. Riparians will

endure such tough, protracted negotiations to ensure

access to this essential resource and its economic and

social benefts.

SouthernAfricancountriessignedanumberof

river basin agreements while the region was embroiled

inaseriesofwarsinthe1970sand1980s,including

thepeopleswarinSouthAfricaandcivilwarsin

MozambiqueandAngola.Thesecomplexnegotia-

tions produced rare moments o peaceul coopera-

tion. Now that most o the wars and the apartheid

era have ended, water management orms one o the

oundations or cooperation in the region, producing

one o the frst protocols signed within the Southern

AfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC).

Today,morethanever,itistimetostoppropagat-

ing threats o water wars and aggressively pursue a

water peacemaking strategy. Why?

Waterwars warnings force themilitary and

other security groups to take over negotiations

and push out development partners, like aid agen-

cies and international fnancial institutions.

Watermanagement offersanavenue forpeaceful

dialogue between nations, even when combatants

are fghting over other issues.

Water management builds bridges between

nations, some with little experience negotiatingwith each other, such as the countries o the or-

mer Soviet Union.

Water cooperation forges people-to-people or

expert-to-expert connections, as demonstrated

bythetransboundarywaterandsanitationproj-

ects Friends o the Earth Middle East conducts in

Israel, Jordan, and Palestine.

Awaterpeacemaking strategy can create shared

regional identities and institutionalize coopera-

tion on issues larger than water, as exemplifed by

theformationofSADCinpost-apartheidsouth -

ernAfrica.

Good governancethe lack o corruptionis the

basic oundation or the success o any agreement.

Obviously, money is also a big challenge. But good


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69

WATER CAN BE A PATHWAY TO PEACE, NOT WAR

governance and money are not enough. Several pol-

icy initiatives could help peacemakers use water to

build peace:

1. Identiy and utilize more experienced acili-

tators who are perceived as truly neutral.The

World Banks success acilitating the Nile Basin

Initiative suggests they have skills worth replicat-

ing in other basins.

2. Be willing to support alongprocess that might

not produce quick or easily measurable results.

Swedens20-yearcommitmenttoAfricasGreat

Lakesregionisamodeltoemulate.Typicalproj-

ect cyclesoten governed by shiting govern-

ment administrations or political trendsare not

long enough.

3. Ensure that the riparians themselves drive the

process. Riparian nations require unders and

acilitators who do not dominate the processand claim all the glory. Strengthening less pow-

erul riparians negotiating skills can help pre-

vent disputes, as can strengthening the capacity

o excluded, marginalized, or weaker groups to

articulate their interests.

1,831 S--S W Icis i tsb Bsis, 19461999

Note:ThedataarefromInternationalWaters:IdentifyingBasinsatRiskbyAaronWolf,ShiraYoffe,andMarc

Giordano,2003,Water Policy5(1),31-62.Adaptedwithpermissionoftheauthor.


6/20ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT70

4. Strengthen water resource management.

Capacity buildingto generate and analyze data,

develop sustainable water management plans,

use conict resolution techniques, or encourage

stakeholder participationshould target water

management institutions, local nongovernmental

organizations, water users associations, and reli-

gious groups.

5. Balance the benets o closed-door, high-level

negotiations with the beneits o including

all stakeholdersNGOs, armers, indigenous

groupsthroughout the process. Preventing

severe conicts requires inorming or explicitlyconsulting all relevant stakeholders beore mak-

ing management decisions. Without such exten-

sive and regular public participation, stakeholders

mightrejectprojectsoutofhand.

Water management is, by defnition, conict man-

agement. For all the 21st century wizardrydynam-

ic modeling, remote sensing, geographic inormation

systems, desalination, biotechnology, or demand

managementand the new-ound concern with glo-

balization and privatization, the crux o water dis-

putes is still little more than opening a diversion gate

or garbage oating downstream. Obviously, there are

no guarantees that the uture will look like the past;

water and conict are undergoing slow but steady

changes.Anunprecedentednumberofpeoplelack

accesstoasafe,stablesupplyofwater.Twotove

million people die each year rom water-related ill-

ness. Water use is shiting to less-traditional sources

such as deep ossil aquiers and wastewater reclama-

tion. Conict, too, is becoming less traditional, driv-

en increasingly by internal or local pressures or, more

subtly,bypovertyandinstability.Thesechangessug-

gest that tomorrows water disputes may look very

dierent rom todays.

No matter what the uture holds, we do not need

violent conict to prove water is a matter o lie and

death. Waterbeing international, indispensable,

and emotionalcan serve as a cornerstone or conf-

dence building and a potential entry point or peace.

More research could help identiy exactly how water

best contributes to cooperation. With this, coopera-

tive water resources management could be used more

eectively to head o conict and to support sus-

tainable peace among nations.

BiographiES

Aaron T. Wolf is proessor o geography in the Department o Geosciences at Oregon State University and directoro the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database. Annika Kramer is a project manager and Alexander Carius

is director o Adelphi Research in Berlin. Geoffrey D. Dabelko is the director o the Environmental Change and

Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center or Scholars in Washington, D.C.


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71

THE CHALLENGES Of GROUNdWATER IN SOUTHERN AfRICA

(Photo Kirk Emerso

the ChallengeS of groundWater

In Southern afrICaByAnthonyTurton,MarianPatrick,JudeCobbing,andFrdricJulien

ItisimpossibletounderstandthedevelopmentalconstraintsofAfricawithoutgraspingthe

signicanceofwaterresources,particularlygroundwater.SouthernAfrica1

aces potentiallysevere groundwater shortages, which not only imperil the lives o those directly dependent

on it, but also the continued development o the economic engines o the regionSouth

Africa,Botswana,andNamibiaallofwhich facesignicantconstraintsontheirfutureeco-

nomic growth due to the insecurity o water supply. In addition, groundwater resources are

the oundation o rural water supplies, which sustain livelihoods or the poorest o the poor

communities.

Todays best practice in sustainablewatermanagementIntegratedWater Resource

Managementocuses on river basins as the units o management. However, this overlooks

twofundamentalrealitiesinsouthernAfrica:

1. Groundwater aquier systems, while being an integral part o the overall water resource,seldom correspond with the surace water management unitthe river basin; and

2. In almost all cases, groundwater systems are, by their very nature, transboundary.

Whileacomplexset ofagreements governtransboundary riverbasinsinsouthernAfrica,

the region lacks international groundwater treaties o similar sophistication and status, which

could be a potential cause o uture conict.

Te gundwte pblem n Suten afc

Water resource management is almost always transboundary.Water resource management

inAfricais,likethecontinentitself,aproductofitscolonialpast.Thecolonialpowersdividedthecontinentintounitsthattendedtobedenedbyrivers.Withinthe53Africancountries,

63riverbasinscrossinternationalborders.Thus,therearemoretransboundaryriverbasins

thansovereignstates.Theseriverbasinscovertwo-thirdsofthecontinentssurfacearea,in

which three-quarters o the human population lives, accounting collectively or a staggering

AUGUST 2006

NO. 2

1.Here,southernAfricaisdenedasthecontinentalcountriesthataremembersoftheSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC);seehttp://www.sadc.int



Mp 1: Pcipii i S aic

Note: Precipitation in southern Africa is unevenly distributed, with the four most economically developed coun-triesSouth Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabweon the wrong side of the global annual average of860 mm, shown as a red line. Map courtesy of Peter Ashton.


9/20

73


93percentofallsurfacewater.Andsignicantly,there

aremoretransboundaryaquifersinsouthernAfrica

than there are transboundary river basins.

Water is unevenly distributed in both space and

time.Thefourmosteconomicallydevelopedcountries

intheregionSouthAfrica,Namibia,Botswana,and

Zimbabweareallonthewrongsideoftheglobal

averageannualrainfall(seeMap1).Theirfutureeco -

nomic growth is potentially limited by the insecurity

o water supply.

Southern Arica has an inherently low conver-

sion rate o rainall to runo, which aects both

surace water river fows and groundwater recharge.

O the rainall that alls to earth in an average year,

only a small portion is converted to water owing in

rivers.SouthernAfrica,alongwithAustralia,hasthe

lowest conversion o rainall to runo in the world.

Groundwater recharge is also largely dependent on

rainall, but in a nonlinear ashion: Below the critical

thresholdof500mmofmeanannualrainfall,adra-

maticdrop-offinrechargeoccurs.Therefore,recharge

isgenerallylowinsouthernAfrica.Drought-proong

Africa requiresamajor investment in infrastructure

to store the limited streamow and assure the supplylevel necessary to provide a stable oundation or a

modern industrial economy.

Given the nonlinear nature o groundwater

recharge at low levels o rainall, coupled with the

prediction o a hotter and drier uture due to global

climate change, a reduction in aquier recharge is

a real likelihood. Looking at the scenario considered

most likely by mainstream climate change scientists

inAfrica,southernAfricaistheonepartoftheplanet

that is expected to become both warmer and drier by

2050.2

I one accepts this prediction, the groundwatersituationinsouthernAfricaislikelytobecomemuch

worse, with considerable reduction in recharge and

hence, an increase in vulnerability o the poor.

plcy recmmendtns

Although the river basin is the generally accept-

ed unit o management, we must recognize that

aquier systems do not coincide neatly with river

basins.Therefore,weneedpolicy-relatedresearch

on groundwater to assist decision-makers with the

management o this complex resource. In addition,

we call for support of the Alicante Declaration,

which seeks to establish a ramework or ground-

water management.3

Groundwater is almost always transboundary

innature.Aquiferscrossinginternationalpoliti-

cal borders pose dierent problems than river

basins.WhiletheSouthernAfricanDevelopment

Community(SADC)ischaracterizedbyarela-

tively sophisticated set o surace water agreements,

it conspicuously lacks agreements dealing specif-

callywithgroundwater.Theregionneedsto:(a)

more accurately map transboundary groundwaterresources (see Map 2 and table); (b) classiy such

resources in terms o hydrogeological character-

istics and uture demands; and (c) generate man-

agement regimes that are capable o dealing with

the problems associated with the resources specifc

hydrogeological characteristics.

Poverty eradication initiat ives such as the

Millennium Development Goals cannot be success-

ul without recognizing the links between develop-

ment, water resource management, aand globalclimate change. We must generate consensus on

2.TheHADCM3GlobalClimateChangemodelusingtheIPCCSRESA2ScenariopredictsahotteranddriersouthernAfricaby2050;seeScholes,RobertJ.,&R.Biggs.(2004).Ecosystem services in southern Africa: A regional assessment. Pretoria, SouthAfrica:CouncilforScienticandIndustrialResearch.

3.Seehttp://www.worldwatercouncil.org/leadmin/wwc/World_Water_Forum/WWF4/declarations/Alicante_Declaration.doc



the need to reach agreement on carbon emission

targets,andwecalluponSADC,Brazil,India,and

China (as rapidly industrializing nations) to coop-

erate in negotiations to this end.

I we are serious about poverty eradication in

southernAfrica,thenwemustbeacutelyawareof

the link between transboundary water resource man-

agement and changing patterns o resource use. In

almost all cases, signifcant resourcesboth surace

andgroundwateraretransboundaryinnature.The

our most economically developed countries in the

region are all approaching limitations on uture eco-nomic growth and development due to low assurance

ofwatersupply.Theregionscountriesshareanumber

o transboundary water resources and all have a vested

interest in reaching agreement on their management

in a air, equitable, and peaceul ashion.

Mp 2: Sm tsb aqi Ssms i

S aic


11/20

75


tb: Kw tsb aqi Ssms b

SadC Cis

CuneneCstl

Cuvel

CnCstl

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incmtCstl

Ke

Klh

KSedmenty

Keny-Tnzn

Cstl

Klmnj

Lmgnulte-

gnessBelt

Nt-gw

okvn

okvn-Euk

pfualluvl

pmfet-Veeleen

Dlmtc

rmtswDlmte

rvumCstl

SheVlleyalluvl

Tul-Shshe

Uervum

sharedaquifers

anl X X X X

Btswn X X X X X X X X 8

Cn (DrC) X X 2

Lest

Mdsc 0

Mlw X 1

Mutus 0

Mzmbque X X X 5

Nmb X X X X X X 6

Sut afc X X

X

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X X X X X X X 9

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Tnzn X 5

Zmb

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states sharing 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 2 1 1 3 3 4 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2

aqufe

rn

Stte

BiographiES

Anthony Turton is director o TouchStone Resources and executive director o the International Water ResourceAssociation. Marian Patrick is a researcher at the Council or Scientic and Industrial Research. Jude Cobbing

is a hydrogeologist at Water Geosciences Consulting. Frdric Julien is a Canadian intern working or the CSIR

Water Resource Governance Research Group.


12/2076


Amidthe talk of looming water wars, a less dramaticbut more immediatelink

between water and violence is oten ignored: the violence engendered by poor gover-

nance o water resources. Policies to expand water supplies, develop hydroelectric power,alter reshwater ecosystems, or change the terms o access to water can have devastating

impactsonthelivelihoods,cultures,andhumanrightsoflocalcommunities.Asthese

communities learn to voice their grievances, build networks across borders, and connect

with human rights and environmental activists, once-local conicts become international

disputes.Asaresult,policymakersatalllevelsarebeingforcedtorethinkwatersrolein

development.Toensurewatersecurityinthe21stcentury,socialconictsoverwatermust

be managed in ways that accommodate the ull range o people aected by water develop-

mentprojects.

Scl Cncts ove Wte

Social conicts over water are, to some extent, inevitable, given waters multiple unc-

tions: It is a basic human need, the oundation o livelihoods, the lieblood o critical

ecosystems, a cultural symbol, and a marketable commodity. Managing social conict is

central to good water management. However, as the development o water resources and

the transormation o reshwater ecosystems have intensifed, so have the conicts.

Social conicts around water are not only increasing, but also being transormed by

twosimultaneousglobalrevolutions.Thecommunicationsrevolutionhasproducedan

explosion in global networks, access to inormation, and personal mobility, making it

easier or aected communities and sympathetic advocacy groups to partner with those

inothercountries.Thedemocraticrevolutionhasincreasedtheabilityofpeopleinprevi -

ously closed societies to organize and express dissent, making it easier (though not always

easy)forcommunitiestoopposeprojectsorpoliciesthatharmtheirinterests,livelihoods,

andcultures.Asa resultofthesetworevolutions,conictsthatwereoncelargelylocal

matters have been dragged into international arenas.

NOVEMBER 2006

NO. 3

the neW faCe of Water ConflICtBy Ken Conca


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77

THE NEW fACE Of WATER CONfLICT

Capital-intensive water inrastructure proj-

ectssuchas large dams, irrigation schemes, and

transportation canalsare the ocus o some o

theseconicts.Theaffectedcommunitiesaretypi-

cally rural and poor, and requently home to cultural

minoritiesorotherwisedisempoweredgroups.The

World Commission on Dams estimated in its 2000

reportthatsuchprojectshaveforcedsome40-80

million people to relocatemany without adequate

compensation and most with little or no say in the

process.Projectsiteshavebeenthesceneofmany

violent conrontations between communities and

governments;inaddition,projectsupportershave

targeted local activists or violence.

Changes in community access to water supplies

canalsogeneratesocialconict.Theincreasingdif-

fculty o fnancing water-supply inrastructure, as

well as pressure rom international fnancial inst i-

tutions, has led some governments to contract out

water services to the private sector. Many more are

marketizing water by increasing prices, cutting o

service or nonpayment, or otherwise limiting access

to water. In Cochabamba, Bolivia, in 2000, largeprotests against price increases and concessions given

to a private multinational consortium led the govern-

ment to declare a state o emergency and deploy the

army; at least one person died and more than 100

were injured inclasheswith securityforces.Similar

protests (on a lesser scale) have broken out in many

countries, recently claiming lives in China, India,

Pakistan, Colombia, Kenya, and Somalia.

Finally, impacts on critical socio-ecological sys-

tems that provide environmental services and sustainlocallivelihoodscantriggerconict.Aquaculture,

or example, is an increasingly important source o

ood around the world, as well as a popular develop-

mentstrategyinmanytropicalcoastalregions.Yet

industrial-scale fsh arming, particularly or shrimp,

oten has a severe impact on local communities:

it can lead to water pollution, wastewater dump-

ing, eutrophication, saltwater intrusion, mangrove

deorestation, and the privatization o traditionally

community-ownedresources.Theseproblemshave

spurred aected communities to protest, call or boy-

cotts, and take other direct actions, to which some

governments have responded by using coercive orce

and targeting local activists.

We must address these social conicts over water

becausehumanrightsandenvironmentaljusticeare

intrinsically important, particularly or people who

are marginalized by current economic structures and

development initiatives. In addition, the broad legiti-

macy needed to institute reorm will not be obtained

without better ways to resolve conict, increase par-

ticipation by members o aected communities, and

encourage stakeholder dialogueespecially impor-

tant now, when many countries are redesigning water

laws, policies, and practices to emphasize conserva-

tion, environmental protection, efcient resource

use, and integrated water resources management.Above all,weshouldview systematic and repeated

protests as evidence that policies have ailedan

early warning that must not be ignored in the rush to

implement particular notions o development.

plcy recmmendtns

Strengthenthehumanrighttowater.TheUN

Committee on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights

has recognized the human right to water, includingthe obligation o states to respect, protect, and ulfll

waterrights.Thehumanrighttowaterisalsoimplicit

in rights to ood, survival, and an adequate standard

o living, and in peoples right to manage their own


14/2078


resources.Thechallengeisgivingtheserightscon-

creteratherthantheoreticalmeaning.Toachieve

this goal, we should recognize the right to water in

national ramework laws and international develop-

ment assistance practices; create better mechanisms

to hold both state and nonstate actors accountable

or implementing and complying with existing laws

and policies; and ensure that economic reorms are

implemented within a human rights ramework.

Treatwaterprojectsasameans,notanend.

Toooften,developmentagenciestreatprojectsasan

end rather than a means, and thus ail to assess the

ull range o alternatives. Worsening this problem are

competition between donor agencies, corruption, and

thepracticeofsubsidizingdubiousprojectsthrough

export credit agencies. Donor agencies and host gov-

ernments alike must improve their ability to survey

all the options and choose those with the ewest

negative impacts. In addition, they should remember

that their ultimate aims are reducing poverty, meet-

ing basic needs, and increasing human security, not

simplyreproducingfamiliarprojectsandcontinuingbusiness as usual.

Createbetterwaystoresolveenvironmentaldis-

putes.Thelackofeffectivemechanismsforresolving

environmental disputes is perhaps the weakest link

in the chain o global environmental governance.

Whi le useul, current mechanismssuch as the

PermanentCourtofArbitration,theWorldBanks

inspectionpanel,ortheWorldTradeOrganizations

dispute resolution proceduresail to provide eec-tive, inclusive, and dispute-transorming outcomes

consistently.TheUNsHigh-LevelPanelonSystem-

Wide Coherence in the Areas of Development,

HumanitarianAssistance,andEnvironmentiscur-

rently considering a wide range o reorms. Its rec-

ommendations should include establishing a mecha-

nism or arbitrating, resolving, and transorming

disputes that involve not only governments, but also

intergovernmental organizations, transnational busi-

ness, NGOs, and local communities.

Learnlessonsfromtransnationalstakeholder

dialogue initiatives.Astraditionalinterstateinsti-

tutions have proved unable to manage cross-border

conicts over water and other resources eectively,

broader and more inclusive stakeholder dialogues

have begun to emerge, such as the World Commission

onDams.Theseinitiativesarenotapanacea,howev-

er. In addition, there is no easy way to identiy all the

stakeholdersinagivendispute.Yettheseeffortsraise

the bar by giving aected people a voice. In addi-

tion, they oer important lessons on how to build

global consensus: Recognize and work through di-

fcult disagreements rather than seek least-common-

denominator statements o general principles; coop-

eratively build knowledge through open, participa-

tory processes; and support such global dialogueswith robust national stakeholder orums.

Broaden participation in international river

agreements. Internationally shared river basins are

often the subject of international diplomacy.Too

oten, however, this diplomacy is limited to dividing

water supplies equitably between nations and reduc-

ingthepotentialforinternationalconict.Although

these goals are important, they do little to address

the human security o people living in the basin. Fewinternational river basin agreements or the institutions

they create include robust mechanisms or incorporat-

ing civil society. Without broad participation and a

ocus on human security, the rush to promote interna-


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79

THE NEW fACE Of WATER CONfLICT

tional cooperationoten driven by proposed large-

scalewaterinfrastructureprojectsmaysimplyaccel-

erate exploitation o water resources.

Recognizetheglobaldemandsthatdrivelocal

resource pressures.Social conicts over water oten

arise at a local level, on the scale o a city or a water-

shed.Yettheymaybedrivenbypowerfulexternal

forces.Thegrowthofindustrialshfarmingisfueled

by changing consumer tastes in rich countries. Big

hydroelectric projects in remote locations often

power industrial processing acilities that plug into

the global economy, while bypassing local economies

and imposing a heavy burden on local communities.

Local initiatives to improve water governance must

be supported by mechanisms that connect the dots

between global drivers and local impacts, such as

product certifcation, consumer inormation cam-

paigns, and cradle-to-grave accountability.

Donotsacricewaterrightstomeetclimate

change goals. Aspressuremountstorespondtothe

threat o global climate change, poorly conceived

hydroelectricprojectsmaybepushedthroughas

cleandevelopmentprojects.Hydroelectricityhasits

place in the worlds energy-supply mix. But climate

change will also aect stream ow and local water

cyclesproblems that can be dramatically worsened

bysomewater-infrastructureprojects.Rushingto

replace big ossil with big hydro risks increasing

the substantial water burdens conronting local com-

munities in a greenhouse world.

Biography

Ken Conca is a proessor o government and politics at the University o Maryland and the director o the Har-

rison Program on the Future Global Agenda, a research and teaching program on global issues. He ocuses

on the politics o water, global environmental politics, political economy, North-South issues, and peace and

confict studies. Concas latest book is Governing Water: Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institu-

tion Building(MIT Press, 2006).


16/2080


(PhotoIngerAndersen)

Water, ConflICt, and

CooPeratIon: leSSonS froM

the nIle rIver BaSIn

By Patricia Kameri-Mbote

In1979,EgyptianPresidentAnwarSadatsaid:Theonlymatterthatcouldtake

Egypt to war again is water. In 1988, then-Egyptian Foreign Minister Boutros

Boutros-Ghali, who later became the United Nations Secretary-General, predicted

that the next war in the Middle East would be ought over the waters o the Nile,

not politics. Rather than accept these rightening predictions, we must examine

them within the context o the Nile River basin and the relationships orged among

the states that share its waters.

Te Nle rve Bsn

TencountriessharethebasinoftheNile,arguablytheworldslongestriver:

Burundi,Egypt,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Kenya,Rwanda,Sudan,Tanzania,Uganda,and

theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo(seemap).Thebasinsthreemillionsquare

kilometerscoverabout10percentoftheAfricancontinent.Approximately160

millionpeopledependontheNileRiverfortheirlivelihoods,andabout300mil -

lionpeoplelivewithinthe10basincountries.Withinthenext25years,theregions

population is expected to double, adding to the demand or water, which is already

exacerbatedbythegrowthoftheregionsindustriesandagriculture.Theconstant

threat o droughts increases the urgency o the problem, and pollution rom land-

use activities aects downstream water quality. Finally, except or Kenya and Egypt,allofthebasincountriesareamongtheworlds50poorestnations,makingtheir

populations even more vulnerable to amine and disease.

Egypt and Sudan hold absolute rights to use 100 percent o the rivers water

under agreements reached in 1929 between Egypt and Britain (which was then

thecolonialpowerinKenya,Sudan,Tanzania,andUganda)andin1959between

Egypt and Sudan.

JANUARY 2007

NO. 4


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81

WATER, CONfLICT, ANd COOPERATION: LESSONS fROM THE NILE RIVER BASIN

Source:Printing,GraphicsandMapDesignUnit,TheWorldBank

t ni ri Bsi


18/2082


Since Egypt must consent to other nations use o

the Niles water, most o the other basin countries have

notdevelopedprojectsthatuseitextensively.Not

surprisingly, over the years other basin countries have

contested the validity o these treaties and demanded

their revocation to make way or a more equitable sys-

tem o management.

Cnct nd Cetn n te Nle

rve Bsn

Confict over the Niles waters could an existing

conficts in the Greater Horn o Arica, making

them more complex and harder to address. Tensions

intheGreaterHornofAfricaareofgreatconcern

to the international community, due to its volatility

and proximity to the Middle East. Conicts emerg-

ing here might spread political, social, and economic

instability into the surrounding areas. In a river basin,

conict is most likely to emerge when the downstream

nation is militarily stronger than nations upstream,

and the downstream nation believes its interests in the

shared water resource are threatened by actions o theupstream nations. In the Nile basin, the downstream

nation, Egypt, controls the regions most powerul

military, and ears that its upstream neighbors will

reduce its water supply by constructing dams without

its consent.

Despitethisgloomyscenario,interstatewaris

unlikely, according to history: No nations have

gone to war specically over water resources or

thousands o years. Instances o cooperation between

riparian nations outnumbered conicts by more than

2-to-1between1945and1999.1 Instead o war, water

uels greater interdependence. By coming together to

jointlymanagetheirsharedwaterresources,countries

build trust and prevent conict. In the ace o poten-

tial conict and regional instability, the Nile basin

countries continue to seek cooperative solutions.

Thepoliticalwilltodevelopanewlegalframe -

work or managing the Nile should continue. In

principle, the countries o the Nile River basin agree

that the situation should change. However, they donot agree on how. Tohelpreachaconsensus,they

developed the high-level Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in

1999. Originally designed as a way to share scientifc

inormation, the NBI today brings together ministers

rom the basin countries to achieve sustainable socio-

economic development through equitable utilization

o, and beneft rom, the common Nile basin water

resources, as stated in its shared vision.2TheNBIhas

served as a catalyst or cooperation in the search or a

new legal ramework or the management o the Nile.

However, high-level negotiations like the NBI are

not enough; civil society must be involved. Since the

inhabitants o a river basin play critical roles in the suc-play critical roles in the suc-

cess o any international agreement, interstate nego-

By coming together to jointly

manage their share water

resources, countries buil trust

an prevent conict. In the

ace o potential conict an

regional instability, the Nile

basin countries continue toseek cooperative solutions.


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83

WATER, CONfLICT, ANd COOPERATION: LESSONS fROM THE NILE RIVER BASIN

tiations should also include stakeholders beyond the

national governments. Civil society engagement and

participation in the development o the Nile basin

have been acilitated not only through the NBIs Civil

Society Stakeholder Initiative but also through the

NileBasinDiscourse(NBD).TheNBDsNational

Discourse Forums, established in each o the basin

countries, provide a venue or all the Niles users to

airtheirexpectationsandgrievances.Throughthese

orums, stakeholders can provide input into develop-

mentprojectsalongtheriverbasin.TheNBDinvolves

a broader array o stakeholders than the traditional

state representatives, thus allowing users at the low-est levelsincluding armers, womens groups, fshers,

and existing community-based organizationsto par-

ticipate in the development o a legal ramework.

plcy recmmendtns

Recognizethatenvironmentalresourcessuchas

water can be pathways to peace.While people will

likely fght with their neighbors over water, nations

have not, historically preerring cooperation overconict.

Usewaterdiplomacytobuildsustainabledevel-

opment, democracy, and equality. Water manage-

ment schemes must promote equitable use or current

and uture users, increase access, share benefts, and

encourage broad participation.

Engagenon-stateactors(suchasfarmers,shers,

womens groups, and community-based organiza-

tions) in nding cooperative solutions to potential

water conficts.

Developthecapacityofcivilsocietygroupsto

ensure they can meaningully contribute to basin-

wide initiatives. Such capacity building will bridge

the endowment gap between civil society and govern-

ment. It will also enable local users to demand access

to benefts governed by interstate agreements while

continuing to buy in to basin-wide initiatives, reduc-

ing the chances o conict.

Coordinatetheeffortsofbilateralandmulti-lateral unding institutions operating in the basin

to realize synergies and engender cooperation

over water. TheseinstitutionsincludetheCanadian

International Development Agency (CIDA), the

Swedish International Development Cooperation

Agency (S IDA), and the Unit ed Kingdoms

Department or International Development (DFID),

as well as the World Bank.

Basin states are interdependent and their develop-

ment is inevitably linked to the rivers hydrologic cycle.

Coordinated management o the waters o the Nile is

beginning to create synergy in dierent countries and

sectors,andcontributetooverallcooperation.TheNile

basin countries could resolve conicts by planning and

The Nile Basin

Initiative has serve

as a catalyst or

cooperation in the

search or a new legal

ramework or the

management o the Nile.


20/20

managingwaterresourcesjointlytoachievesustain-

able development and regional stability, under a sound

legal and institutional ramework agreed to by all par-

ties. Reaching this agreement will require involving

all stakeholders in transboundary water management,

building trust among them, creating a common bond,

and identiying shared interests.

Collaborative management o the Niles water

resources could act as a catalyst or peace in a region

beset by conict. I we deal eectively with shared

water, we could help mitigate not only the daily strug-

gle or lie, but also the deadly battles that threaten to

pit tribe against tribe, clan against clan, amily against

amily, and neighbor against neighbor.

Notes

1.Wolf,Aaron,ShiraYoffe,&MarcGiordano.(2003).International waters: Identiying basins at risk. Water Policy

5(1),31-62.SeealsoNavigatingPeaceNo.1,Watercanbe

a pathway to peace, not war, available at http://www.wilson-

center.org/water

2. See http://www.nilebasin.org or more inormation and

a list o members and partners.

Biography

Patricia Kameri-Mbote is a proessor o law at Strathmore University (Nairobi) and an advocate o the High

Court o Kenya. She is also programme director or the International Environmental Law Research Centre.

Previously, she chaired the University o Nairobis Department o Private Law and served as acting dean or the

Faculty o Law. She was the rst chair o the Kenya Nile Discourse Forum, a network o civil society organiza-

tions working with other national discourse orums in the Nile River basin to infuence development o projects

and programs under the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and other Nile-related programs. She was an Open Society

Institute Arica Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in 2006.

Water management

schemes must promote

equitable use or current

an uture users,

increase access, share

benets, an encourage

broa participation.

navigating peace initiative: water conflict and cooperation

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