national tracking poll national public opinion poll march 31, 2014 #140314

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NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

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Page 1: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

NATIONAL TRACKING POLL

National Public Opinion PollMarch 31, 2014

#140314

Page 2: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

2

Total DEM(37%)

IND(31%)

GOP(32%)

Age 18-29

(17%)

Age 30-44

(24%)

Age 45-64

(38%)

Age 65+(21%)

32%

58%

19% 14%

41% 37%28% 27%

68%

42%

81% 86%

59% 63%72% 73%

RD

Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on

the wrong track?

NATION OFF ON WRONG TRACK

WT

Total By Party By Age

RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT

Page 3: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

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National

All Senate States Competitive Senate States*

39% 38% 38%

58% 59% 60%

Approve

And, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

OBAMA JOB APPROVAL INVERTED

Disapprove

Senate battlegrounds even less amicable to President.

ApproveDisapprov

e ApproveDisapprov

e

* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.

Disapprove +19 Disapprove +21 Disapprove +22

Page 4: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

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National

All Senate States Competitive Senate States*

38% 36% 35%

57% 60% 62%

Approve

Do you approve or disapprove of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress in 2010?

OBAMACARE ALSO UNPOPULAR

Disapprove

Numbers closely approximate Obama job approval.

ApproveDisapprov

e ApproveDisapprov

e

* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.

Disapprove +19 Disapprove +24 Disapprove +27

Page 5: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

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Now, thinking about your vote in 2014 for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress, what would you say is the top issue that is motivating

your vote?

FISCAL ISSUES DOMINATE

32%

17%

17%

14%

11%

3%

2%

Immigration Reform

Foreign Policy

Health Care

Federal Budget Deficit and Debt

Jobs/Unemployment

The Economy

Medicare and Social Security

DEM(37%)

IND(31%)

GOP(32%)

18-29(17%)

30-44(24%)

45-64(38%)

65+(21%)

29% 31% 36% 37% 36% 34% 19%

25% 16% 7% 19% 21% 14% 15%

19% 15% 18% 18% 22% 17% 14%

7% 17% 18% 11% 9% 14% 21%

12% 11% 10% 3% 3% 12% 23%

3% 2% 4% 3% 5% 2% 2%

1% 1% 4% 4% 1% 2% 1%

Page 6: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

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Total

35%28%

8% 3% 1%

24%

DEM

Overall, which political party do you trust to do a better job coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?

The Democratic Party, The Republican Party, The Tea Party, The Libertarian Party,

The Green Party … or … None of the above?

A NATION POLITICALLY DIVIDED

GOP Tea Party

Libertarian Green

None

}39%

R+4

Page 7: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

SENATE ELECTIONS

Page 8: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

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National All Senate States

Competitive Senate States*

INDies Suburban White

Female

Single White

Female

38% 36% 40%

24%35%

44%42% 44% 43%37%

46%34%

DEM

And, when you think about the upcoming 2014 elections for U.S. Senate happening in some states, which is your preference for the outcome of

the election? Is it a…Senate Controlled by Democrats …or… Senate Controlled by

Republicans?

GENERIC ADVANTAGE TO GOP

GOP

* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.

DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP

R+4 R+8 R+3 R+13 R+11 D+10

Totals Key Demographics

Page 9: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

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National All Senate States

Competitive Senate States*

INDies Suburban White

Female

Single White

Female

23% 24% 24%14%

20% 23%

43%33%

44% 43%49% 51%

31% 33% 32%43%

31% 26%

Sup

Will your vote this November for federal offices such as U.S. Senate and U.S. House be a vote to…

Send a signal of support for President Obama,Send a signal of opposition to President Obama, OR

Not send a signal either way about President Obama?

VOTERS WANT TO SIGNAL OPPOSITION TO OBAMA

Opp

* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.

NoSig. SupOpp

NoSig. SupOpp

NoSig. SupOpp

NoSig. SupOpp

NoSig. SupOpp

NoSig.

Totals Key Demographics

Page 10: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314

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AMONG “NOT SEND A SIGNAL”

Among those voters who indicate that their vote for federal offices is not sending a signal either way about President

Obama…

AgeNo

Signal(31%)

Total(100%)

18-29 17% 17%

30-44 23% 24%

45-64 40% 38%

65+ 20% 21%

Gender

No Signal(31%)

Total(100%)

Male 48% 47%

Female 52% 53%

PartyNo

Signal(31%)

Total(100%)

DEM 37% 37%

IND 39% 27%

GOP 20% 32%

GeoNo

Signal(31%)

Total(100%)

Urban 23% 23%

Suburb 48% 49%

Rural 29% 28%

More likely to be INDs, otherwise evenly distributed among demos.

Page 11: NATIONAL TRACKING POLL National Public Opinion Poll March 31, 2014 #140314