national tracking poll national public opinion poll march 31, 2014 #140314
TRANSCRIPT
NATIONAL TRACKING POLL
National Public Opinion PollMarch 31, 2014
#140314
2
Total DEM(37%)
IND(31%)
GOP(32%)
Age 18-29
(17%)
Age 30-44
(24%)
Age 45-64
(38%)
Age 65+(21%)
32%
58%
19% 14%
41% 37%28% 27%
68%
42%
81% 86%
59% 63%72% 73%
RD
Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on
the wrong track?
NATION OFF ON WRONG TRACK
WT
Total By Party By Age
RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT
3
National
All Senate States Competitive Senate States*
39% 38% 38%
58% 59% 60%
Approve
And, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
OBAMA JOB APPROVAL INVERTED
Disapprove
Senate battlegrounds even less amicable to President.
ApproveDisapprov
e ApproveDisapprov
e
* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.
Disapprove +19 Disapprove +21 Disapprove +22
4
National
All Senate States Competitive Senate States*
38% 36% 35%
57% 60% 62%
Approve
Do you approve or disapprove of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress in 2010?
OBAMACARE ALSO UNPOPULAR
Disapprove
Numbers closely approximate Obama job approval.
ApproveDisapprov
e ApproveDisapprov
e
* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.
Disapprove +19 Disapprove +24 Disapprove +27
5
Now, thinking about your vote in 2014 for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress, what would you say is the top issue that is motivating
your vote?
FISCAL ISSUES DOMINATE
32%
17%
17%
14%
11%
3%
2%
Immigration Reform
Foreign Policy
Health Care
Federal Budget Deficit and Debt
Jobs/Unemployment
The Economy
Medicare and Social Security
DEM(37%)
IND(31%)
GOP(32%)
18-29(17%)
30-44(24%)
45-64(38%)
65+(21%)
29% 31% 36% 37% 36% 34% 19%
25% 16% 7% 19% 21% 14% 15%
19% 15% 18% 18% 22% 17% 14%
7% 17% 18% 11% 9% 14% 21%
12% 11% 10% 3% 3% 12% 23%
3% 2% 4% 3% 5% 2% 2%
1% 1% 4% 4% 1% 2% 1%
6
Total
35%28%
8% 3% 1%
24%
DEM
Overall, which political party do you trust to do a better job coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?
The Democratic Party, The Republican Party, The Tea Party, The Libertarian Party,
The Green Party … or … None of the above?
A NATION POLITICALLY DIVIDED
GOP Tea Party
Libertarian Green
None
}39%
R+4
SENATE ELECTIONS
8
National All Senate States
Competitive Senate States*
INDies Suburban White
Female
Single White
Female
38% 36% 40%
24%35%
44%42% 44% 43%37%
46%34%
DEM
And, when you think about the upcoming 2014 elections for U.S. Senate happening in some states, which is your preference for the outcome of
the election? Is it a…Senate Controlled by Democrats …or… Senate Controlled by
Republicans?
GENERIC ADVANTAGE TO GOP
GOP
* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.
DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP
R+4 R+8 R+3 R+13 R+11 D+10
Totals Key Demographics
9
National All Senate States
Competitive Senate States*
INDies Suburban White
Female
Single White
Female
23% 24% 24%14%
20% 23%
43%33%
44% 43%49% 51%
31% 33% 32%43%
31% 26%
Sup
Will your vote this November for federal offices such as U.S. Senate and U.S. House be a vote to…
Send a signal of support for President Obama,Send a signal of opposition to President Obama, OR
Not send a signal either way about President Obama?
VOTERS WANT TO SIGNAL OPPOSITION TO OBAMA
Opp
* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.
NoSig. SupOpp
NoSig. SupOpp
NoSig. SupOpp
NoSig. SupOpp
NoSig. SupOpp
NoSig.
Totals Key Demographics
10
AMONG “NOT SEND A SIGNAL”
Among those voters who indicate that their vote for federal offices is not sending a signal either way about President
Obama…
AgeNo
Signal(31%)
Total(100%)
18-29 17% 17%
30-44 23% 24%
45-64 40% 38%
65+ 20% 21%
Gender
No Signal(31%)
Total(100%)
Male 48% 47%
Female 52% 53%
PartyNo
Signal(31%)
Total(100%)
DEM 37% 37%
IND 39% 27%
GOP 20% 32%
GeoNo
Signal(31%)
Total(100%)
Urban 23% 23%
Suburb 48% 49%
Rural 29% 28%
More likely to be INDs, otherwise evenly distributed among demos.