Week 2The Situational Context

NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYSIS: A CRITICAL THINKING APPROACH

SECURITY ANALYSIS CRITICAL THINKING FRAMEWORK

Modified from the Elder & Paul (Nosich) Critical Thinking Framework from the Foundation for Critical Thinking

Use of this framework helps overcome cognitive biases and other thinking problems

Elements of Thought

Covered Today

BOTTOM-LINE-UP-FRONT: WEEK 2The Situational Context includes investigating the Elements of Thought covering Purpose, Questions, Information, Context, Points of View, and Assumptions, which allow the analyst to develop a deeper level of understanding of the overall context of your analysis.

Note: The material presented this week will make your “head hurt” as it covers each element in greater detail—much of this information you will have not seen before. It will also likely challenge your personal Points of View. Course slides are on the Osher Institute website for those wishing to use them for reference.

PURPOSEDefinition:

The Purpose is your goal, your objective, what you are trying to accomplish. This term can also include functions, motives, and intentions.

This usually includes reflection on the type of analysis:

Descriptive

Explanatory/Evaluative

Predictive/Estimative

Policy or Programmatic

Descriptive AnalysisWho? What? When?Where? How?

Explanatory AnalysisWhy? How (some)?What does it mean?

Policy AnalysisWhat should agency X do about problem Y?

Predictive AnalysisWhat will happen?

Summarizes, Reports

Generalizes, Finds Basic Patterns & Trends

Identifies Cause & Effect, Evaluates, Judges

Forecasts, Estimates

Creates Alternatives

The Security Analysis Spectrum

Source: Modified from Pherson and Pherson (2017), 50.

More Data-Driven More Concept-Driven Pragmatic Results

QUESTION DEVELOPMENT

Start questions with:

Who, what, where, when, or how—descriptive research

Why or how—explanatory/evaluative research

What/where/who/when will…(happen)—predictive/estimative research

What should Agency X (or Person X) do about problem Y?—policy & programmatic analysis

End with the condition of the phenomenon you want to describe, explain, predict, evaluate, address, or solve (be specific).

Examples of specific research questions:

How did the Al Qaeda terrorists legally enter the US? (descriptive)

Why did US government officials not stop the entry of the Al Qaeda terrorists? (explanatory)

Where will the Al Qaeda terrorists attack next in the US? (predictive)

What should the U.S. government do to prevent Al Qaeda attacks on the homeland? (policy)

It is extremely important to ensure the Purpose & Questionsare in alignment with Customer’s needs

PURPOSE/QUESTION TOPICS COME FROM EXISTING STRATEGIES OR CURRENT EVENTS

Strategy or Guidance (sampling) U.S. Issuing AgencyNational Security Strategy White House

National Defense Strategy Department of Defense

National Military Strategy Joint Chiefs of Staff

National Strategy for Biodefense White House

National Strategy for Counterterrorism White House

National Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism

White House

Homeland Security Strategic Plan Dept. Homeland Security

National Strategy for Aviation Security White House

National SW Border Counternarcotic Strategy Office of Drug Control Policy

National Northern Border Strategy Dept. of Homeland Security

National Strategy for Protecting Critical Infrastructure and Key Assets

Dept. of Homeland Security

National Intelligence Strategy Director of National Intelligence

Worldwide Threat Assessment (updated annually) Director of National Intelligence

Defense Intelligence Strategy Department of Defense

Presidential Executive Orders White House

NSC

PCC PCC PCC PCC PCC

PC

DC

National Security Process

These documents are used for budgeting and planning purposes, operational or tactical (crisis) decisions normally require a truncated use of the National Security Process

INFORMATION SEARCHING AND INFORMATION LITERACY: THE FOUNDATIONS FOR GOOD THINKING

Information Searching entails accessing a significant number of sources.

Information Literacy refers to a constellation of competencies revolving around information searching, use, and practice across all occupations and professions. This means—finding information, assessing information, using

information, and documenting information sources.

Information literacy is the foundation for life-long learning.

NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYSTS ACCESS U.S. INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION SYSTEMS

Human Intelligence (HUMINT)(Overt & Covert) (CIA/FBI)

Signals Intelligence (SIGNINT) (NSA)

Communications Intelligence (COMINT/CYBERINT)

Electronic Intelligence (ELINT)

Imagery/Geospatial Intelligence (IMINT/GEOINT) (NGA)

Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT) (DIA)

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) (ODNI)

OSINT NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION SOURCES

Academic & Professional Journal Articles (many in digital databases, many use EbscoHost digital search engine)

Government Reports, Think Tank Reports, Professional Reports Legal Databases (Lexis/Nexis, Westlaw (legal, news, business information)) Books—both Academic and Professional (e.g. WorldCat digital database) Newspapers/Magazines/Media Reports (national & local) Web Links/Internet—last sources to consult

Not all of our accumulated knowledge is on the web Most strategic intelligence studies are 80-90% OSINT

Get a Good Start at the Williamsburg Regional Library and William & Mary Library

TRUTHFULNESS AND COMPLETENESS OF INFORMATION MUST BE ASSESSED

Deception entails manipulating the “truth” to obtain a political, economic, social, or military objective or advantage. There are a number of different deceptive tactics. Examples: Using the truth to gain opponents trust (conditioning), then inserting

mistruths at a critical operational moment. Campaigns of mistruths and/or misinformation.

Denial entails keeping the opponent from obtaining the truth, such as: Close control of truth so it does not become known to opponent

(need-to-know, classification of material, encrypted communications, operational security, etc.).

Concealment and camouflage.

Assessing Media Sources www.newsguardtech.com

Local TV

News

ASSESSING QUALITY OF INFORMATION

Review systematically all sources for accuracy (use the critical thinking elements of thought to analyze material)

Identify information that appears the most critical or compelling

Check for sufficient and strong corroboration of critical reporting (try to triangulate sources and look for multiple sources with the same or similar evidence—assess denial and deception--consider whether ambiguous information has been interpreted and caveated properly)

Indicate a confidence level (high, medium, low) that can be placed on information used in the ongoing project

Source Critical Information(Data, Evidence, Facts)

Corroboration of Information

ConfidenceLevel (H, M, L)

Comments

CONTEXT (OF THE SITUATION UNDER ANALYSIS)Definition

Context includes the historical, political, social, economic, cultural, linguistic, scientific, and/or professional or personal setting or background that directly relates to the issue at hand.

Context must be considered when assessing all the other elements. Data found in the Information Search must be applied to assess the Context, Points of View and Assumptions in the situation under analysis.

POINTS OF VIEWDefinitionPoint of View is literally “the place” from which you view something. It includes what you are looking at and the way you are seeing it.Assessing Points of View requires an investigation of the subject’s, author’s or analyst’s political, economic, religious, cultural, and social backgrounds—it means uncovering their “belief systems.”

We will now look at how people develop their “belief systems” and the most prevalent factors in their beliefs.

A person’s belief system is based on a number of complex sources and how this information is processed Religion

About What We Think!Source of Personal Biases:

THEORIES OF HOW THE WORLD WORKS DRIVE DIFFERING POINTS OF VIEW

Three main theoretical approaches govern most points of view and how politics and economics function, i.e., the dominant ideology often starts with the theory

Realist Theory Liberal TheoryMarxist (Critical)Theory

These are all Positivist ideologies—meaning they assume the scientific method may be used to study human behavior.

REALISM: BILLIARD BALLS

Organizations (states, agencies, etc.) have hard outer shells (internal workings matter less)

Organizations and people constantly bump into each other (interactions)

Organizations and people sometimes form groups(alliances)

Security is most important concern

Relationships among organizations and people arebased on power and diplomacy (negotiations)

Basic Assumptions:

Realism informs ideologies of conservatism, nationalism, isolationism, and authoritarianism

U.S. CanadaUK

Russia

LIBERALISM: COBWEBS

Institutions (states, organizations, etc.) and people make up nodes Nodes have multiple connections, relations with other nodes make up websStrength of relationships are based on frequency and nature of interactions, laws, rules, regulations, treaties, etc.Internal conditions (economics, social, etc.) as important as securityTheories tend to be normative (how world should or ought to work)Liberalism informs ideologies of pluralism and globalism

Basic Assumptions:

Nodes (circles)

Connections/Interactions (lines)

THE NEW WORLD ORDER Characteristics of the post-World War II New World Order:

Military Alliances to Preserve Peace Spread of Democracy Free Trade (remove trade barriers) Global Interconnectivity (communications, economics, politics) Environmental Stewardship (added recently)

Began forming at end of World War II and strengthened over next 70 years

SEATO 1954-1977

MARXISM: LAYER CAKE APPROACH

Top Layer: political, social, cultural, religious, etc., institutions—The Superstructure

Bottom Layer: The Structure of the Economy (Production)—The Base

According to Marx, the structure of the Economy drives form & function of all other societal institutions

Basic Assumptions:

Economy

Politics, Social, Culture, Religion

Karl Marx(1818-1883)

TO UNDERSTAND MARXISM, YOU MUST CONSIDER HIS ANALYSIS BASED IN HISTORICAL MATERIALISM

PoliticalSystem (Superstructure)

Primitive Communism

Basic Gov. to Facilitate

Slave Control

Aristocracy(Authoritarian)

Democracy Communism

EconomicSystem (Base)

Hunters & Gatherers

Slavery Feudalism Capitalism Socialism

Hegel’s Dialectic

World Today Future World(Theorized)

Ex: Capitalism(exploitation of

workers)

Ex: Socialism(workers own production)

Karl Marx(1818-1883)

Three views of Socialism today (feeds Equivocation logic fallacy): 1. Marx’s Socialism—never implemented anywhere 2. Authoritarian Socialism—ex-Soviet Union, China, Vietnam, Cuba, and more (Cold War view)3. Democratic Socialism—Western Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand (post-Cold War view)

Generally do not believe in social science (not positivists), offer every phenomenon has its own unique explanation as there are no identifiable patterns in social behavior.

Often focus on culture, identity, and gender explanations for human behavior. Use mainly historical method with heavy criticism of social science works.

Includes Humanists, Constructivists, Feminists and other non-mainstream theoretical approaches.

It may be hard to uncover the theoretical point of view if assessing a Post-Modernist

TIME FOR A 10 MINUTE BREAK!

ASSESSING DIFFERING CULTURES EXPLAINS A LOT

Every society, political entity, or organization creates its own culture

It is extremely hard to change a culture

Three main cultural types: Collectivist

Individualistic

Egalitarian

Political &

COLLECTIVIST CULTURES

Authoritarian, Dictatorial, Elite ControlledPower/resources/communications flow from

leaders/elite down to rest of societyCentral Concept – the good of the leaders/elite

INDIVIDUALISTIC CULTURES

Hierarchical, Chain-of-CommandPower, resources, communications flow up and down within the

hierarchyStrong reliance on laws, regulations, and rulesCentral Concept – the good of the individuals or specific groups

EGALITARIAN CULTURES

Multiple Lateral Networks (very complex societies)Power, resources, communications flow horizontally

and vertically across the many interconnected networks

Central Concept – the good of the entire society

MOST SOCIETIES OR ORGANIZATIONS HAVE CHARACTERISTICS OF DIFFERENT CULTURES—BUT USUALLY ONE OR TWO DOMINATE

Collectivist

Individualistic

Egalitarian

SOCIAL CAPITAL HELPS DEFINE CULTURE

Assess by analyzing: Social Networks & Interactions Social Norms (Rules) Social Trust

Two Types: Bonding Social Capital (within

group) Bridging Social Capital (with

other groups)

SOCIAL CAPITAL IN THE UNITED STATES

Source: Putnam (2001), Bowling Alone

2000 Warning: Levels of Analysis and Measurements Differ

CollectivistIndividualisticEgalitarian

Marxism Liberalism RealismIdeologies:

Cultures:

Authoritarian SystemsFantasy Land

Democratic Socialism

Social Capital: High Medium Low

Autocrats & DictatorsAbsolute

Not aPolitical System

RELIGION DETERMINES HOW PEOPLE UNDERSTAND AND VIEW THEIR ROLE IN SOCIETY

Selected List of World Religions

Monotheistic Religions (one God) Jewish, Christian, Islamic

Polytheistic Religions (many Gods) Hindu, Buddhist, Taoist, Shinto

Other Well-Known Religions Sikhism, Nature Focused, Syncretic,

Non-Believers—and many more

MAJOR SOURCE OF MISPERCEPTION AND CONFLICT

Root of Issues with Religious Differences

Those in the West (mainly Christians) have a common perception that religion is a private matter separate from the larger society.

Other Cultures though perceive their beliefs, rituals of worship, and spiritual practices are all part of a common life and not just a private concern.

MONOTHEISM (ONE GOD): THE GOD OF ABRAHAM

Religion# Adherents

Date StartedSacred Text

Description

Judaism14 Million

~2000 BCETanakh, Torah (Bible Old Testament)

emerged during the Bronze Age in area of present-day Egypt/Israel/Lebanon (The Levant), emphasis is on social relationships between people and between people and God

Christianity2.2 Billion

After 1 CEBible (Old and New Testaments)

emerged after death of Jesus, who was seen as the divine Son of God, includes Catholics, Protestants (many sects) and Mormons (sacred text is Bible plus Book of Mormon), sacred texts provide guidance on social behaviors

Islam1.6 Billion

After 632 CEQur’an,Sharia (ethics)

eternal religion based on writings/teachings of Muhammad who is seen as last Profit of God, Sunni & Shia sects differ, provides guidance on political, economic, and social behavior, extremism forbidden

POLYTHEISM (MANY GODS): THE EASTERN (ASIAN) RELIGIONS

Religion# Adherents

Date StartedSacred Text

Description

Hinduism1 Billion

3300 BCEVedas

world’s oldest religion, centered around Indus River (India), sees no path to truth is universally valid, umbrella term for many native religions, no single founder

Buddhism376 Million

405 BCETheravada

based on teachings of Gautama Buddha, centered in Tibet, Nepal, and Southeast Asia, ethical religion focused on virtuous and exemplary behavior, Dali Lama most visible modern leader

Taoism394 Million

BCE (no date)Tao Te ChingZhuangzi

umbrella of Chinese indigenous religions, based on Chinese folk culture that looks at life, society, and a person’s place in it, Confucius major philosopher

Shinto4 Million

6th Century CEKojiki & others

umbrella of folk religions in China and Japan, heavily influenced by Buddhism, worship natural phenomenon, commune with nature

OTHER WELL-KNOWN RELIGIOUS BELIEFS

Religious Beliefs# Adherents

Description

Sikhism23 Million

started 1469 CE, monotheistic, founded in Punjab region (India, Pakistan), grew out of Hinduism and Islam, based on teachings of ten Sikh Gurus, very egalitarian and stresses gender equality

Nature-Focused Religions# Unknown

polytheistic folk culture worship of nature and spirits, includes Pagan, Neo-Pagan, WICCA (witches), Druidism, Shamanism—and more

Syncretic (Western Hemisphere)# Unknown

polytheistic blend of African folk culture religions and Christianity, includes Haitian Voodoo, Santeria (Cuba and Caribbean), Candomble’ (Brazil)

Non-Believers, Atheism, Agnosticism,1.1 Billion

those who do not believe in religion (non-believers), do not believe in the existence of gods (atheists) or see that there is no evidence to prove or disprove existence of divine forces (agnostics)

WORLD CONFLICT (BOTH EXTERNAL (NATIONAL) AND INTERNAL (HOMELAND)) IS FOUND AT THE INTERSECTION OF DIFFERENT IDEOLOGICAL, POLITICAL, CULTURAL, AND RELIGIOUS BELIEFS

Post-Cold War Trends

Type of Culture Egalitarian Individualistic CollectivistGoverning Ideology Liberal/Marxist Mixed-Realist/Liberal RealistCulture works for “Good of the ….”

Entire Society Individuals/Specific Groups

Leaders/Elites

Leaders strive for…. Wealth Security Standing,Reputation

Type of Governing System (WorldBank World Governance Indicators)

Mature or Strong Democracies

Globalists

New, Transitional, or Weak

Democracies Isolationists & Nationalists

Authoritarians,Dictators,

Strongmen

Actors Most Affecting Decisions or Policy

All Societal Actors Down to Citizens

(Exact Actors Differ by Issue)

Executive, Executive Advisors, Elites,

Legislatures, Interest Groups, Lobbyists

Executive, Executive Advisors, Elites

Levels of Political Rights & Civil Liberties (FreedomHouse, Freedom in the World)

Free Partly Free Not Free

Levels of Rule of Law (World Justice Project, Rule of Law Index)

Strong Moderate Weak

Levels of Elite Accountability Significant Some LittleLevels of Mass Participation High Moderate LowEconomic/Resource Management Systems (Heritage Foundation, Index of Economic Freedom)

Market Mixed—Command/Market

Command(Statist)

Elite Corruption Behaviors Paragons Opportunists PiratesSocietal Political Corruption Patterns(Transparency International Corruption Perception Index)

Incidental(Low)

Institutional (Moderate)

Systemic(Severe)

Levels of Bridging Social Capital High Moderate Low17Sample of World Countries

(can also be used to assess organizations and individuals)

Canada,Denmark,Australia,New Zealand

US, UK, Germany Japan

France, Spain, Italy, Costa Rica

Hungary, Pakistan. Turkey, Philippines

North Korea, Russia, China Vietnam

Coordinates of Political

Culture

Theoretical (Rule-Oriented Constructivism of Nicholas Onuf)

Empirical (Trends found by IGO and NGO research)

Religion has few if any identifiable trends in Political Culture.

Religion, as practiced by the culture or leadership, will greatly influence the ideology and actions of the society

ASSUMPTIONS (EMERGE FROM BELIEF SYSTEMS)DefinitionAssumptions are propositions you take for granted. They usually operate at the subconscious or unconscious level of thought.

Assumptions usually fall into one of 3 categories:

Paradigmatic – core belief systemsPrescriptive – how it “ought” to beCausal – cause & effect

PARADIGMATIC ASSUMPTIONS

Concern the deeply held assumptions framing how a person views the way the world works (i.e., their belief system).

Go to the heart of a person’s points of view and include political, economic, religious, cultural and social aspects of how the person views the way the world works.

These beliefs usually spring from dominant ideologies (political, economic, religious, social, etc.).

These assumptions are often never questioned in analyses. Are often hard to uncover, especially by those whose thinking is

also influenced by the same paradigmatic assumptions.

Religion

PRESCRIPTIVE ASSUMPTIONS

Concern those assumptions defining desirable ways of thinking or acting.

Define what “ought” or “should” be the desirable ways of thinking or acting (we call these normative).

Tend to flow from a person’s paradigmatic assumptions of how the world should work.

Also result from the structure of laws, regulations, policies, rules, etc., applying to the situation under study. There are many social rules (both formal and informal) that influence thinking and behavior that are prescriptive assumptions.

CAUSAL ASSUMPTIONS

Concern the causal linkages that make the world work and conditions under which the causal linkages might change.

In the behavioral or social sciences, causal conditions are often elusive due to the complexity of human behavior and the lack of valid research in many aspects of human behavior.

Include the quality of evidence (facts, information, etc.) used to support an argument.

Also includes the quality of the logic and reasoning used to support an argument .

X Y

TECHNIQUES FOR ASSESSING POINTS OF VIEW AND ASSUMPTIONS

4-Ways of Seeing (2 actors)Key Assumption Checks

How does Actor A view her/himself and/or the

issue at hand (sources of the view)?

How does Actor B view her/himself and/or the

issue at hand (sources of the view)?

How does Actor A view Actor B her/himself and/or vis-a-vis the issue at hand

(sources of the view)?

How does Actor B view Actor A her/himself and/or vis-a-vis the issue at hand

(sources of the view)?

Assessing Differing

Perspectives

FOUR WAYS OF SEEING

What are sources of differing perspectives (views): historical, ideological, political, economic, cultural, social, religious, linguistic, etc.?

KEY ASSUMPTION CHECKS

Key Assumption Category/Comments SolidWith Caveats*

Unsup-ported

Actor A

1. Paradigmatic, Prescriptive, or Causal

2.

3.

4….

Actor B

1.

2.

3.

4….

* Must indicate what conditions would make assumption solid

OPENLY QUESTIONING PEOPLE’S POINTS OF VIEW AND ASSUMPTIONS CAN MAKE YOU A PARIAH

IN WEEK 3 WE REVIEW THE ELEMENTS OF THOUGHT THAT HELP ANALYSTS GENERATE FINDINGS AND REPORTS LEADING TO PROBLEM SOLUTIONS AND DECISIONS.