national freight trends, issues, and policy options august...
TRANSCRIPT
National Freight Trends, Issues, and Policy Options
August 2001
FHWA
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations2
Objectives…
l Discuss emerging trendsl Present national freight analysis efforts
including forecastsl Identify some of the emerging policy issues
toward transportation reauthorization in 2002-2003
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations3
Emerging Freight Trends and Issues
l Markets/Logistics (demand)Ø From national markets to global marketsØ From a manufacturing to a service economyØ Moving to customer dictated just-in-time delivery system
l Carriers/Transportation Systems (supply)Ø From modal fragmentation to cross-modal coordinationØ From system construction to system optimizationØ Increased DOD reliance on commercial freight system
l Public PolicyØ From economic deregulation to safety regulation Ø From modal to multi-modal surface transportation policyØ Increased environmental accountability
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations4
National Highway System Intermodal Connectors - InfrastructureConstraints
lNHS ConnectorsØ Poor physical conditionØ Poor geometricsØ “orphan status”Ø inadequate coordination
of investment strategies
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations5
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
Travel Rate Congestion IndexPeak-Period Travel Times Have Increased Significantly Compared to Off-Peak Travel Times in Across the Nation
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1982 1986 1992 1997 1999
TT
I Tra
vel R
ate
Ind
ex
Very Large MetroAreasAverage 68 MetroAreasLarge Metro Areas
Medium Metro Areas
Small Metro Areas
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations6
Public Sector(States, MPOs)
Private Sector(Shippers, Carriers)
Global
National
Regional
Local
Freight Transportation PerspectivesState and MPO focus is regional and local; private sector focus is increasingly national and global
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations7
National Multimodal Freight Data and Policy Analysis Framework
l Approximation of current national flows l Economic trade forecasts to 2020
(domestic and international) and estimated modal components
l Assessment of capacity and investment implications
l Policy development tool for future legislation
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations8
Total Domestic Freight Tons and ValueFreight traffic moving into, out of, and within the U.S. totaled9.8 billion tons and $9.1 trillion in 1998- 1st approximation
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To
ns
(bill
ion
s)
$ (t
rilli
on
s)
Truck Rail Water Air Intern'l
Tons Value
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations9
Truck Freight Flows, All CommoditiesAll truck types; highway freight density in tons 1998
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations10
Rail Freight Flows, All CommoditiesRail freight density in tons 1998
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations11
Inland Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities Waterway freight density in tons 1998
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations12
Air-Freight Origins and DestinationsAll commodities, domestic airport-to-airport traffic, in tons
Origins
Destinations
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations13
Top Gateways for International Freight Exports and imports in tons
Exports
Imports
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations14
Highway Flows of International Freight Moving into and From the Port of Charleston
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations15
Freight Forecast Growth Rates-Trend
l US Domestic:Ø 1998-2020: 2.9% (Cumulative: 87%)Ø 1998-2010: 3.4%Ø 2010-2020: 2.4%
l US International:Ø 1998-2020: 3.4% (Cumulative: 107%)Ø 1998-2010: 4.0%Ø 2010-2020: 2.9%
l International Sectors:Ø US/Canada 1998-2020: 3.1%Ø US/Mexico 1998-2020: 3.5%Ø US/ROW 1998-2020: 3.4%
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations16
Growth by Region: US Inter & Intra-Regional
Tonnage by 2020
100%
89%
89% 79%
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations17
Truck Net Tons (Millions)1 - 1010 -100100 - 1,0001,000 -
1998 and 2020 domestic truck flows
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations18
NAFTA--US/Canada Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations19
NAFTA--US/Mexico Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations20
Overseas Inland Trade: Truck Trafficon U.S. Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations21
Next Steps--Capacity and Investment Analysisl Assign future freight flows to modal networksl Conduct highway system capacity analysis to understand
the nature of emerging constraints, e.g. nodes, corridors, gateways, connectors, metropolitan congestion
l Develop illustrative multimodal case studies in selected regions of the country; e.g. Southern Calif., Chicago rail and intermodal access, Mid Atlantic rail, Pacific NW
l Assess future investment requirements for Biennial Surface Transportation Condition and Performance Report to Congress in 2002.
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations22
The Policy Challenge
l Both passenger and freight demand upon the nation’s infrastructure will increase significantly
l Freight volumes will nearly double to 2020; with higher growth in some corridors and nodes
l Current planning and financing methods do not adequately address freight’s unique concerns
l Intermodal linkages not seamlessl Increased focus on safety and environmental issuesl Economic competitiveness at stake
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations23
U.S. National Outreach/Policy analysis
l Share freight analysis findings, forecasts, and system impacts with stakeholders and assess policy implications
l Hold a series of outreach forums on multimodal freight finance, multi-state issues, planning, operations to assess current practice and formulate future policy options
l Develop a ‘Freight Story’ and conduct national freight summit Dec. 2001 to lay groundwork for policy initiatives
l Report to Congress on system condition, performance, and future investment requirements in 2002
l Develop surface, marine, air transportation reauthorization legislative strategies in 2002 that fully reflect the needs of freight and passenger considerations
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations24
DOT Freight Outreach Events
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations25
Preliminary Freight Funding Options
Expanded eligibility or new programsl Enhance the ability to co-mingle private and public monies l Expand innovative financing programsl Expand intermodal project fundingl Create separate programs or set asides for freight planning and
implementationl Create connector or “Last Mile” program that includes all modesl Identify new sources of revenue for freight projects
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations26
Preliminary Freight Institutional Policy Options
l Improve freight planning and programming processl Improve multi-state/multi-jurisdictional cooperationl Foster public/private cooperative mechanismsl Foster improved freight intermodal operations
including application of new technologies
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations27
ISTEA
Intermodalism
Innovative Finance
TEA-21
Funding Increases
TIFIA
State/local freight focus
???
Information/Technology
Infrastructure Funding
Institutional Development
Efficiency Equity Effectiveness
1991 - 97 1998 - 03 2004 - ??
Toward Surface Transportation Reauthorization- Freight elements?
FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations, USDOT
www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight
Gary [email protected]