national dissemination and consensus building conference...

Climate Change & Agriculture in Moldova:

National Dissemination and Consensus Building

Conference

Dr. William R. SuttonSenior Agricultural and Resource Economist

The World Bank

Chisinau, Moldova

April 12, 2011

Background, Summary Findings, and Objectives

Main Topics

1. Overview of Regional Program on Reducing

Vulnerability to Climate Change in

Agricultural Systems

2. Summary of projected impacts of climate

change on Moldova

3. Summary of the Menu of Adaptation

Options

4. Conference overview and objectives

Overview of the Regional Program

• Objective: to enhance the ability of Europe and Central Asia

countries to integrate climate change adaptation into

agricultural policies, programs and investments

• Key output: menu of adaptation measures for the agriculture

sector – including crops, water resources, and livestock.

• Timeframe: 3-year program (2009 – 2011)

• Resources: grants from World Bank, BNPP (Dutch), TFESSD (Danish)

• Partners: Ministries of Agriculture and Environment; Hydrometeorological Services; local and international agricultural research institutions; farmers’ associations; agri-business; development partners

• Beneficiary Countries: Albania, Macedonia, Moldova

Uzbekistan

Special Features of the Program

Strong country participation, capacity building

Cross-sectoral

Combines quantitative (economic) and qualitative (stakeholder, expert) analysis

Rigorous modeling, including water

Multiple agricultural sub-sectors

Recommendations for both national and agro-ecological zone (AEZ) levels

Focuses on identifying “Win-Win” measures

Moldova Should Start Developing and Implementing Adaptation Responses Now

Program Workflow: Where We Are Now

Engage key

stakeholders for

feedback on the

Draft Note

Finalize Country

Note

Consultation and

Awareness

Raising Workshop

National

Dissemination and

Consensus Building

Conference

Evaluate potential

adaptation strategies

Low data availability

FAO-CSSWB model

with CGE or

Ricardian approach

High data availability

DSSAT/APSIM

model with CGE

Undertake model

suitability assessment

based on available

data sources

Develop Draft

Country Note

Desktop

literature review

Agree on information

gaps and needs for

additional analysis +

identify project partners

Regional

Knowledge

Exchange

Develop a draft Menu

of short-, medium-,

and long-term

adaptation options

Impact

Assessment

Menus of

Adaptation Options for

four ECA countries

Finalize Country-

Specific Menu of

Adaptation

Options

Stakeholder

consultations

Potential Impacts of Climate

Change on Moldova’s

Agriculture:

Challenges for Crops and Water

Resources

ECA’s Climate is Already ChangingTemperatures Are Expected to Increase,

Precipitation Is More Uncertain

Extreme Events Will also Become More Frequent

ECA’s Climate is Already ChangingClimate impact on rainfed crop yields is severe, for

irrigated crops less negative without water constraints

Changes in Moldova’s crop yields by 2040s, medium impact scenario

Irrigated/ Rainfed Crop Northern Central Southern

Irrigated

Maize -8% -6% -9%

Wheat -14% -30% -34%

Alfalfa -7% -13% -18%

Grapes -4% -3% -5%

Apples 0% 0% -3%

Vegetables -5% -9% -13%

Rainfed

Maize -9% -3% -10%

Wheat -36% -38% -45%

Pasture -17% -22% -19%

Alfalfa -13% -18% -12%

Grapes -4% -3% -2%

Apples -2% -4% 3%


ECA’s Climate is Already ChangingBut water modeling predicts increasing

deficits for irrigationMean Unmet 2040s Monthly Irrigation Water Demands: All Moldovan Basins

ECA’s Climate is Already ChangingAfter accounting for water constraints, projected impacts on irrigated crop yields are more severe

Changes in Moldovan irrigated crop yields, medium impact scenario, 2040s

Crop Northern Central Southern

Maize -8% -6% -9%

Wheat -14% -30% -34%

Alfalfa -7% -13% -18%

Grapes -4% -3% -5%

Apples 0% 0% -3%


Adaptation Options to Increase

the Resilience of Moldova’s

Agriculture

ECA’s Climate is Already ChangingBenefit-cost analysis for rehabilitated irrigation

infrastructure for crops in the central AEZ

* These results assume that the crops were rainfed before the irrigation infrastructure was rehabilitated

ECA’s Climate is Already ChangingNational level adaptation options

identified•Strengthen inst. capacity and policies to improve farmer’ access to drought, heat and pest tolerant plants and livestock breeds from nat’l and internat’lsources, improved production technologies and farm advisory services

• Improve water resource mgt and infrastructure (on-farm water use efficiency irrigation, drainage)

•Support hydromet, mass media and private sector information providers to make timely weather forecasts available to farmers to reduce risks

•Improve access to crop insurance for adverse climatic events such as hail storms

• Implement national policies to develop market infrastructure for agro-food processing and whole sale market in Chisinau and the regional markets

• Extend farmers’ access to financial resources and create incentives to adopt adaptive measures into a focus on soil and moisture conservation technologies and drought-tolerant horticultural crops

Options Identified for the Northern Agro-Ecological Zone

• Rehabilitate irrigation

infrastructure, increase irrigation

efficiency and drainage systems

•Promote soil conservation tech.

Such as minimum till, mulching,

efficient fertlz. use, plastic mulching

•Improves access to higher yield and

drought-tolerant plant varieties,

livestock breeds and mgt systems,

developed locally and internationally

• Improve access to info & training

for farmers for wide-scale adoption

of technologies

• Promote forestry and agro forestry

in areas prone to soil erosion and

degradation and promote

greenhouses and plastic tunnels

Options Identified for the Central Agro-Ecological Zone

•Encourage specific farming

systems: crops, livestock or

horticultural-based production,

based on the compatibility of

natural resources

•Improves access to higher yield

and drought-tolerant plant

varieties, livestock breeds and

mgt systems, developed locally

and internationally

•Rehabilitate irrigation

infrastructure and improve water

collection ponds

•Train farmers on improved on-

farm water use efficiency and soil

moisture conservation

technologies

Options Identified for Southern Agro-Ecological Zone

•Support access to improved

varieties which are tolerant to

biotic /abiotic hazards

(almonds, walnuts, grapes,

peaches, apricots)

•Rehabilitate existing irrigation

infrastructure, build small-scale

H2O storage and improve on-

farm water use efficiency

•Encourage specific farming

systems - crops, livestock or

horticultural-based production

systems based on the

compatibility of natural

resources

•Improve access to information

and new technologies

Summary of Key Findings

Moldova already affected by climate change

Climate change will accelerate in the future

A “business-as-usual” approach will result in losses in some cases, missed opportunities in others

There are practical adaptation measures that can be taken to increase resilience

Many adaptation measures are “Win-Win”

Benefits are greater the sooner adaptation measures are implemented, so it is important to start now

Conference Overview and

Objectives

Today’s Program

1. Present methodologies and results of

draft Impact Assessment and Menu of

Adaptation Options

2. Break-out session to discuss options and

build consensus on priorities at the agro-

ecological zone (AEZ) level

3. Discuss national adaptation priorities

4. Decide on overall recommendations,

conclusions and next steps

Operational impacts thus far: What else can be done in Moldova?

Albania: Integrating recs. into new irrigation and drainage project

Starting preparation of new GEF project to pilot other recs.

Uzbekistan: Integrating recs. into new ag. competitiveness project

Proposing to pilot recs. in new GEF project

Moldova: Can integrate recs. into new ag. competitiveness project

Component on ag. adaptation in DRMAP project

Macedonia: Recs. feeding into Water and Green Growth Strategies

Approach being replicated in the Caucasus

www.worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture

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