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National Aviation Policy Review -

Input to Scoping Report

SASIG & Department for Transport (DfT) Engagement Event

19 January 2011

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UK Aviation Policy – Past Present & Future

• similarities and differences as UK aviation policy has developed

• driving forces at each stage

• factors for consideration in today’s discussions

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Aviation legislation (1/3)Dec. 1945 Command Paper on British Air

ServicesJuly 1948 report by Select Committee on

EstimatesJuly 1963 Committee on the Problem of Noise,

Final Report (Cmnd 2056)1966 Airport Authority ActFeb. 1978 Airports Policy White Paper (Labour)Dec. 1979 Report of the Advisory Committee

on Airports Policy

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Aviation legislation (2/3)June 1985 Airports Policy White Paper

(Conservative)1986 Airports Act1990 RUCATSE Study – Runway Capacity to

serve the South-East; reported in July 1993Feb. 1995 Government response to RUCATSEMay 1996 Transport Select Committee report

‘UK Airport Capacity’July 1998 Transport White Paper

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Aviation legislation (3/3)Dec. 2003 White Paper - The Future of Air

Transport (ATWP)2006 Civil Aviation Act[Oct. 2006 - Stern Review of the Economics

of Climate Change][Dec. 2006 Eddington Transport Study]Dec. 2006 - ATWP Progress Report[2008 Climate Change Act]Dec. 2009 - Committee on Climate Change

Aviation Report

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Airports Act 1986 (Ch. 31)

An Act to provide for the dissolution of the British Airports Authority and the vesting of its property, rights and liabilities in a company nominated by the Secretary of State;

to provide for the reorganisation of other airport undertakings in the public sector;

to provide for the regulation of the use of airports and for the imposition of economic controls at certain airports; ……

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Airports Act 1986 (Ch. 31)

…..to make other amendments of the law relating to airports;

to make provision with respect to the control of capital expenditure by local authority airport undertakings; and

for connected purposes.[8th July 1986]

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Air Transport White Paper 2003

“The Government recognises the benefits that the expansion in air travel has brought to people's lives and to the economy of this country. Its increased affordability has opened up the possibilities of foreign travel for many people, and it provides the rapid access that is vital to many modern businesses. But…..

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Air Transport White Paper 2003

….we have to balance those benefits against the environmental impacts of air travel, in particular the growing contribution of aircraft emissions to climate change and the significant impact that airports can have on those living nearby.”

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DRIVING FORCESPassenger growth – currently around 6% per annum –

is not slowing down to 3% or 4% as was forecastiIf not constrained by airport capacity, air travel

demand at UK airports is forecast to grow strongly under the central case, from 241 million passengers per annum (mppa) in 2007 to 465mppa in 2030 (within the range 415-500mppa).

UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, DfT, Jan. 2009

WHEN GROWTH PICKS UP AGAIN the estimate of 500 mppa will be reached in 2021 not 2030

There could be 780 mppa by 2030

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Percentage change year on year at all UK airports

-10-8-6

-4-2024

68

1019

98

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

% c

han

ge

fro

m p

revi

ou

s ye

ar

% change fromprevious year

Civil Aviation Authority UK Airport Statistics (www.caa.co.uk)

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THE BIG ISSUES • Aviation growth is booming ahead – good or

bad?• The economic benefits are substantial but

so is the environmental impact• Passengers are enjoying more/cheaper

flights• High growth means more global warming• Communities around airports will

experience higher levels of air and noise pollution

• More pressure on our congested road and rail network

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Central questions:

Whether or not new airport capacity should be provided?

If yes…..• how much?• where?• what mitigation measures will be taken?

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Environment

"The main environmental effects of aviation are those of aircraft noise and aircraft emissions. The former largely affect areas at and around airports, the latter can have both local effects on air quality and global effects on climate. These problems are becoming more serious as aviation continues to grow at rates that outstrip the ability of technological and operational improvements in environmental performance to keep pace."

European Commission – air transport webpageshttp://ec.europa.eu/transport/air/environment/

environment_en.htm

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Inclusion of non-CO2 effects

UK Government aviation target – CO2 emissions from UK aviation in 2050 should be at or below 2005 levels – excludes non-CO2 effects of aviation

Considerable scientific uncertaintyHowever, it is important to account for non-

CO2 effects of aviation in future international policy framework & UK emissions reductions

Committee on Climate Change Aviation Report, Dec. 2009 (Exec. Sum. pg.9)

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UK Government aviation target – CO2 emissions from UK aviation in 2050 should be at or below 2005 levels

could be met in concert with 55% increase in air transport movements

(from 2005 level) if achieve annual carbon intensity reduction of around 0.9% (from biofuels and fleet fuel efficiency)

60% increase in passenger numbers (from 2005 level) assuming load factors increase

CCC Aviation Report – the future

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Capacity expansion options

55% increase in ATMs (from 2005 level) is around 3.4 million, 2005 level was 2.2 million

Total current theoretical capacity at UK airports is 5.6 million ATMs

However available capacity is not the only consideration – geographical spread, accessibility, choice, services, integration, etc.

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UK Passenger Forecasts to 2030

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Policy options

The broad options are:

• UNCONSTRAINED GROWTH

• LIMITED GROWTH

• SELECTIVELY LOCATED GROWTH

• ENVIRONMENTALLY CONTROLLED GROWTH

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Future policy negotiations

Need these to be at all levels - domestic, regional (EU), and international – and need to cover:

• aviation’s non-CO2 climate change emissions – NOx, cirrus, contrails

• developed and developing countries