narendra kumar tiwary, executive engineer, wrd, gob (research … · 2013-07-25 · narendra kumar...
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Narendra Kumar Tiwary, Executive Engineer, WRD, GoB
(Research Scholar , IIT Delhi)
Prof. A.K.Gosain, IIT Delhi
Prof. A.K.Keshari, IIT Delhi
Civil Engineering Department
Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi
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• To explore the feasibility of using SWAT for real time flood
forecasting in Bagmati River Basin of Bihar, India
Objective of the study
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3
Typical flood forecasting situation
Effective Lead Time
Total Forecast Lead Time
Time used by
observation and
forecasting
Flo
od p
roducin
g s
torm
Tim
e e
lapsed in
obser.
Tra
nsm
issio
n T
ime
Data
pro
cessin
g
Fore
cast fo
rmula
tion
Tra
nsm
it ion tim
e
Rain
begins Rain
ends
Forecast reaches
user Flood reaches
outflow station
Rain
forecast
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IMPORTANT TASKS OF PRESENT STUDY
1.
1. Calibration and sensitivity analysis using SWAT
2. Hourly Runoff generation using Green Ampt Method
3. Modify SWAT for developing error updating technique for real time flood
forecasting applications
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Study Area
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DEM-SRTM (90M)
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Parameter Elevation (m)
Minimum Elevation 10
Maximum Elevation 2913
Mean Elevation 103
Standard Deviation 318
Elevation Summary – Baghmati Basin
Slope in Nepal portion is very steep and that in Indian portion is flat.
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Soil
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Soil Details
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SEQN SNAM NLAYERS HYDGRP TEXTURE SOL_AWC1 SOL_K1 CLAY1 SILT1 SAND1
3663 Bd34-
2bc-
3663
2 C LOAM 0.117 35.65 24 35 42
3664
Bd35-
1-2b-
3664 2 C LOAM 0.157 28.52 17 36 47
3682
Be81-
2a-3682 2 D LOAM 0.175 7.77 24 36 40
3684
Be83-
2a-3684 2 C LOAM 0.175 13.92 22 38 41
3695
Bk40-
2a-3695 2 C LOAM 0.175 14.96 20 40 40
3743
Jc50-
2a-3743 2 D LOAM 0 6.48 18 44 38
3761
Gd23-
1ab-
3061 2 C LOAM 0.175 24.73 20 34 46
3808
Lo49-
2a-3808 2 D LOAM 0.175 6.17 21 35 44
3851
Rd30-
2b-
3851 2 D CLAY_LOAM 0.137 7.17 27 35 37
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Land use (Global USGS)
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Subbasins(32 Sub-basins)
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Rain Gauge and Stream Gauge Stations
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Calibration chart for Hayaghat for Monthly simulation
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Validation chart for monthly simulation for Hayaghat
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Variable p-factor r-factor R2 NS Br2 MSE SSQR
FLOW_OUT_18 0.63 0.36 0.96 0.96 0.9156 3741.3962 1563.2155
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Validation chart of calibrated model for daily flows of year 2004
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Validation chart for daily stream flow for year2010
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Validation graph for hourly simulation for 2004 event
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Validation graph for hourly simulation for 2010 event
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ARIMA Parameters
B1(LAG1)= 1.3153
B2(LAG2)= -0.0162
B3(LAG3)= -0.3013
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A TypicalReal time flood forecasting graph generated by SWAT model
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Real time flood forecasting Graph
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Hourly Discharge
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SWAT model can be used as an efficient tool for real time flood forecasting by
incorporating suitable changes
CONCLUSIONS
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Thank You
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