nanno mulder – eclac
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LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach to Evaluate the Economic and Social Impact of ICT in Latin America. Nanno Mulder – ECLAC. Outline. - Introduction & background Recent growth accounting research LAC-KLEMS proposal. - Introduction & background. Background. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Nanno Mulder – ECLAC
LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach to Evaluate the
Economic and Social Impact of ICT in Latin America
OutlineOutline
- Introduction & background
- Recent growth accounting research
- LAC-KLEMS proposal
- Introduction & background
Background
– Low economic growth since 1980s …
– … although from 2003 to 2007 growth accelerated to above 4% …
– … and employment grew and unemployment fell
– … while investment increased
Average per capita GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is over 3% per year
between 2003 and 2009
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH RATES(Percentages)
No similar growth period has been seen for 40 years
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Growth is accompanied by an improvement in labour market
indicators
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
50.0
51.0
52.0
53.0
54.0
55.0
56.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Employment rate (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis)
- Introduction & background
- Recent growth accounting research
- LAC-KLEMS proposal
- Recent growth accounting research
Growth accounting research on LACGrowth accounting research on LAC
Research has been done on macro-performance using growth accounts (e.g. Elías, 1992; Hofman, 2000; many national studies)
• But little analysis on role of sectors in economic growth and importance of ICT (e.g. Coremberg, 2004 and de Vries, Mulder, dal Borgo and Hofman, 2007)
Source: Aravena, Jofré y Villareal (forthcoming)
Source: Aravena, Jofré y Villareal (forthcoming)
Source: De Vries, Mulder & Hofman (forthcoming)
Role of mobile communications in growth
• Project with Internet Interdisciplinary Institute (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya) & Telefonica
• Goals
Measurement of investment and prices of mobile communications using “microdata”
Measurement of contribution of mobile services to productivity in Latin America
Period: October 08 – April 09
- Introduction & background
- Recent growth accounting research
- LAC-KLEMS proposal- LAC-KLEMS proposal
Why LAC-KLEMS?
• Little knowledge on MFP at industry level; hypothesis of strong heterogeneity
• Same it true for meso impact of ICT
• Major shifts in labor market (skilled-unskilled)
Therefore difficult to define, implement and evaluate policies related to ICT and productivity
World-KLEMS
• KLEMS is already applied in European Union (Un. of Groningen), USA (Harvard University) and Japan
• Similar efforts now under way in China, India, amongst others
• In Latin American context: LAC-KLEMS (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico)
LAC-KLEMS objectives are to study
• economic growth and productivity at industry level
• capital formation and technological change at industry level
• Role of ICT in growth and productivity• Role of labour and human skills in
growth and changes in the sectoral composition of the economy
Project outcomes
• Two types of deliverables:– Analytical database by sector and factor
inputs comparable across countries in Latin America and elsewhere; complying with highest quality standards
– Statistical module, data consistent with those published by NSIs; deviations from these standard rules should at least be supported by the NSIs.
Three phases (36 months)
(a) Growth and Productivity Accounts:– Supply-use tables covering output and inputs– Labor accounts - quantity (hours) and quality
(gender, age and skill level) by industry– Capital accounts: investment by asset and
industry, capital service estimates by industry (user costs)
– Construction of database
Project outcomes
… adjust concepts and measurement to reality of Latin America• General characteristics: role of informal sector, volatility
• Capital: include land and other natural resources?
(b) Methodological research on measurement of: • output and inputs• education attainment • capital services, following SNA 1993 recommendations.
Project outcomes (cont.)
(c) Analysis of LAC-KLEMS database• productivity, production structures
• technology and innovation indicators
• labor market - skill complementarities
• technological progress (innovation)
Consortium members
• Coordinator: ECLAC Santiago, Chile • Regional members:
- Argentina: ECLAC Buenos Aires INDEC
- Brazil: Federal University or Rio de Janeiro
IBGE- Chile: ECLAC Stgo. and INE- Mexico: to be defined and INEGI
External advisors
• Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen (coordinator WORLD-KLEMS)
• Institute of Economic Research of Valencia (IVIE), Spain
• Harvard University (Prof. Dale Jorgenson)
• OECD (Paul Schreyer)
LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach to Evaluate the Economic and Social
Impact of ICT in Latin America