naman sharma and dan lane school of management, university of ottawa ottawa, ontario k1n 6n5...
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Naman Sharmaand
Dan LaneSchool of Management, University of Ottawa
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 1OMRN CONFERENCE
What concerns?Need for reconciliation of the approaches for
culmination to effective management strategy.Decline criterion approach of COSEWIC.Reference point approach of DFO.
An integrated system approach based on Multicriteria decision analysis for complete perspectives of Fisheries System.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 2OMRN CONFERENCE
•Significant population declines
•The lack of rebuilding of the stocks results in drastic management measures - short-term and long-term moratoria on commercial fishing.
•Government recognizes the need to maximize the effectiveness of stock rebuilding efforts.
•Government also recognizes the need for feedback on effectiveness of measures taken.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 3OMRN CONFERENCE
Variation of Spawning Stock Biomass for Atlantic Cod
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Year
SSB (
tonn
es)
4T
4XW
2J3KL
3Pn4RS
3Ps
2J3KLNorthern cod
3PsSouthNfld cod
4V, 4WXMaritimes cod
3Pn4RSNorthGulf cod
4T SouthGulf cod
COSEWIC Threshold Approach DECLINE CRITERIA ENDANGERED THREATENED
TOTAL POPULATION
70% WITH THREATS CEASED;
i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALSSPAWNERS - 3X RATE OF DECLINE
50% WITH THREATS CEASED;
50% WITH THREATS CONTINOUS (IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONSUPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS)
50% WITH THREATS CONTINOUS (IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONSUPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS)
GEOGRAPHIC RANGE
i) EXTENT OF OCCURRENCE < 5,000 SQ KM < 20,000 SQ KM
ii) AREA OF OCCURRENCE < 500 SQ KM < 2,000 SQ KM
iii) NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ≤ 5 ≤ 10
iv) EXTREME FLUCTUATIONS > 1 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE > 1 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE
SMALL TOTAL POPULATION
i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 2500 MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 10,000 MATURE INDIVIDUALS
ii) RATE OF DECLINE
20% 10%
(IN 5 YEARS OR 2 GENERATIONS (IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONS
UPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS) UPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS)
VERY SMALL POPULATION
i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 250 MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 1000 MATURE INDIVIDUALS
ii) AREA OF OCCURRENCE < 20 SQ KM < 20 SQ KM
iii) NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ≤ 5 ≤ 5
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
i) PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION 20% IN 20 YEARS OR 5 GENERATIONS 10% IN 100 YEARS
SOURCE : http://www.cosewic.gc.ca/Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 5OMRN CONFERENCE
COSEWIC SPECIES AGGREGATION STATUS ASSESSMENT
CRITERIACOD STOCKAGGREGATION
COSEWIC OBSERVATIONS (2003)
COSEWIC INTERPRETATION
TOTAL POPULATION
i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS 2GHJ, 3KLNO 97% (1968-2001) ENDANGERED
SPAWNERS - 3X RATE OF DECLINE 3Ps, 3Pn4RS 81% (1974-2001) THREATENED
4T, 4Vn, 4VsW, 4X, 5ej,m 14% (1974-1997) SPECIAL CONCERN
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 6OMRN CONFERENCE
DFO Reference Point ApproachBased on Precautionary framework defined by
Limit Reference PointsInclude the concept of Stock Status Zones to
determine Management measures.Stock Status Zones are
Critical Zone (Conservation Objective)Cautious Zone (Conservation and Socio-Economic) Healthy Zone (Conservation objective attained and
Socio-Economic objective optimized)
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 7OMRN CONFERENCE
DFO vs. COSEWIC : Major Concerns
•Decline criterion and marine fish stocks•Special concern category•Stock aggregation•DFO Moratorium declaration•COSEWIC designations and SARA listing•Socio-economic consideration
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 8OMRN CONFERENCE
Fisheries System Analysis
Current approaches do not deal with all aspects of the fishery system;
Federal Regulatory Policy (1999) requires analysis of all costs and benefits;
Fisheries Act of Canada (2006) requires sustainable Fishery for economic benefits of all Canadians.
Need for a system evaluation; consideration of multiple objectives and multiple components.
Application of principles of TQM to setting targets for multiple components.
OBJECTIVE: Develop a comprehensive approach to Fisheries as a system based on structured MCDM approach for the exploration and evaluation of different policy alternatives under different scenarios to understand fish stock status.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 9OMRN CONFERENCE
Model Name: 4TVN AHP DATAGRID
Treeview
Goal: Evaluation of management policy in the 4TVn fishery system
Biological: (L: .535)
Stock Biomass Target 3+ (L: .168)
Stock Biomass Target SSB 5+ (L: .370)
Fishing Mortality (L: .107)
Total Stock Abundance 3+ (L: .119)
Stock Recruitment (Age 3) (L: .235)
Economic: (L: .270)
Mobile Gear Fleet <45' (L: .211)
Mobile Gear ITQ Fleet <65' (L: .411)
Fixed Gear Fleet <65' (L: .174)
Fixed and Mobile Gear Fleet 65-100+' (L: .090)
Group Vessels Fleet (L: .115)
Social: (L: .120)
Employment (L: .500)
Labour Earnings (L: .500)
Administrative: (L: .075)
Personnel (L: .500)
Costs (L: .500)
* Distributive mode
Page 1 of 13/19/2007 8:30:03 AM
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Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 10OMRN CONFERENCE
Table 5. 4TVn Cod Fishery System Objectives Dimension Indicator 4TVn Cod Target
Value Sources
1 Total Biomass (ages 3+) over 200,000 t (see also Figure 3)
2 Spawning Stock Biomass (ages 5+ proxy)
over 100,000 t (see also Figure 3)
3 Fishing Mortality under 0.30
4 Total Abundance (ages 3+) over 300,000 fish (see also Figure 1)
I. Biological
5 Recruitment (age 3) over 150,000 fish
Chouinard et al (2006-2001), Canada (2005a), FRCC (2003)
1 MG < 45’ Fleet NOI over $8,000 per yr
2 FG < 65’ Fleet NOI over $10,000 per yr
3 MG ITQ < 65’ Fleet NOI over $20,000 per yr
4 FG + MG 65-100+’ Fleet NOI over $50,000 per yr
II. Economic
5 Group Vessels Fleet NOI over $15,000 per yr
Canada (2007), Canada (2006a), Canada (2005a),
1 Employment (Annual FTEs) over 300 FTEs per yr III. Social
2 Labour Earnings over $15,000,000 per yr
Canada (2007), OECD (2000)
1 Personnel (Annual PYs) under 35 PYs IV. Administrative 2 Management Costs under $3,000,000
Canada (2003b), OECD (2000)
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 11OMRN CONFERENCE
4TVn Strategic Analyses1. Historical review, 2001-20052. 2007 Policy Alternatives
Policy Description 2006 and 2007 Catches and Fs
Status Quo Low level of exploitation; average of 2004 and 2005
2300t; F=0.075
Moratorium No fishing 0t; F=0.0 Increased Catch High relative level of exploitation 5900t; F=0.2
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 12OMRN CONFERENCE
Radar Graph of Biological Dimensions by Utility Measure
-0.050
0.050
0.150
0.250
0.350
Population abundance
Recruitment
Fishing mortalityPopulation biomass
SSB (proxy)
Weighted Target
Weighted Tolerance
Weighted Limit Value
2001 Weighted Utility
2002 Weighted Utility
2003 Weighted Utility
2004 Weighted Utility
2005 Weighted Utility
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 13OMRN CONFERENCE
Radar Graph of 2007 Scenarios
System Dimensions by Utility Measure
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25Biological
Economic
Social
Administrative
Weighted Target
Weighted Tolerance
Weighted Limit Value
2007Mor
2007SQ
2007Catch
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 14OMRN CONFERENCE
Table 10. Weighted Multicriteria Rankings for 2007 Policy Alternatives Fishery System Dimensions 1 2 3 4 Overall Biological Economic Social Administrative Weighted Values Green Weighted Target 0.535 0.27 0.12 0.075 1 Yellow Tolerance 0.401 0.203 0.090 0.056 Red Limit Value 0.268 0.135 0.060 0.038
Scenario 2007SQ Weighted Utility 0.198 0.005 0.010 0.067 0.280 2007Mor Weighted Utility 0.208 0.000 0.000 0.067 0.276 2007Catch Weighted Utility 0.182 0.038 0.023 0.067 0.309
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 15OMRN CONFERENCE
•Production and Operations Management• Fisheries Management
•Stock status indicators•Quality control charts•Prespecified management actions
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 16OMRN CONFERENCE
4TVn Cod2000-2006 VPA Annual 3+ Abundance Estimates from 1990
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Ag
es 3
+ A
bu
nd
an
ce (
000s f
ish
)
2000
2001
2002
2005
20062003
Healthy Zone: Ages 3+ Target
Critical Zone: Ages 3+ Limit
Cautious Zone: Ages 3+ Status Quo
4TVn CodMean Weights at Age 6 Calculated from VPA
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Mean
Weig
hts
at
Ag
e 6
Age 6 Target Weight
Age 6 Limit Weight
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 17OMRN CONFERENCE
CONCLUSIONSFisheries as a comprehensive system Overall policy accountability and
performance measurement by performanceNeed for a strategic perspective based on
multicriteria (AHP)Need for an operational management
approach based on process control (TQM)
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 SLIDE # 18OMRN CONFERENCE