N-1

Civil War in a Neighboring Country

N-2

MILITARY SCENARIO

“STORM CLOUDS”MAY 1999

• Russia and Belarus Express concerns over Poland’s formal admission to NATO.

• Belarus on verge of civil war.– President exploring unification with Russia.– Opposition seeking to block this move.– Economic and political plight desperate.

• Unconfirmed reports state that the Russian minority in Latvia is involved in supporting pro-Russian political elements in Belarus.

N-3

“FIRST RAIN”

• Belarus President declares recent election results invalid and calls for new elections

• Announces formal talks with Russia to include merger• Opposition takes to the streets; army and security forces gain upper

hand quickly• Small guerrilla campaign crushed• Renegades flee to countryside• In Latvia

– Right wing groups harbor fleeing rebels (opposition)– Unconfirmed reports of Latvian Russian minority groups behind Belarus

government (demonstrations and propaganda)– Some supply of arms to rebels in Belarus countryside from Latvian

territory– Trickle of civilians illegally crossing from Belarus countryside to flee

fighting

N-4

“THE STORM”

• Opposition in Belarus demoralized and desperate– Resort to terrorist-type attack into Belarus from Latvian

bases – One such foray causes 52 deaths

• Belarus demands Latvia control its border– Clean out opposition camps inside its borders– Do so within 72 hours “or else”– Confirm agreement in 24 hours

N-5

“LIGHTNING”

• Belarus regulars in hot pursuit of twelve rebels cross border into Latvia– Seven armored personnel carriers with Belarus troops cross

into Latvia – exchange fire

– Reconnaissance light aircraft violates airspace

• Belarus forces capture rebels and forcibly return them to Belarus where they are executed

• Unconfirmed reports that two or three of those taken were Latvians

• Above attack occurred before 24-hour deadline demand of Belarus government had expired