monthly employment summary

GREATER ST. LOUIS

EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY

October 2016 Preliminary Data

Prepared November 30, 2016

Unemployment Rate | PEOPLE Seasonally adjusted

October 2016 September 2016 August 2016

St. Louis MSA 4.7% 5.0% 4.9%

Illinois 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%

Missouri 5.1% 5.2% 5.1%

United States 4.9% 5.0% 4.9%

Payroll Employment | JOBS Seasonally adjusted

October 2016 Job Change

Over-the-Month Percent Change Over-the-Month

St. Louis MSA 1,388,600 3,500 0.3%

Illinois 6,022,600 2,200 0.0%

Missouri 2,838,500 9,300 0.3%

United States 144,952,000 161,000 0.1%

OVERVIEW

Monthly Employment Summary | page 2

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics1


The nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in October, slightly down from September. The region’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.7 percent, slightly down from September. The region’s unemployment levels are currently tracking the nation’s. Nationally, the preliminary seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment numbers for October saw the ad-dition of 161,000 jobs. The region’s seasonally adjusted payroll employment increased by 3,500 jobs for an over-the-month increase of 0.3 percent. The region’s not-seasonally adjusted payroll employment data series points to continued strength in the job market. Over-the-year unadjusted job data from October 2015 to October 2016 shows that total employment in the region rose by 32,700 jobs, a 2.4 percent increase. At the same time, the nation’s employment grew by 1.6 percent. This summary is available on the Economic Overview page of the St. Louis Regional Chamber website. http://www.stlregionalchamber.com/regional-data/economy. The next summary will be available December 30, 2016. Please note that the preliminary data presented in this summary is subject to change. This month, the regional unemployment data is provisional and subject to change. One month’s data does not necessarily indicate a trend. Please refer to page 4 to see long term unemployment trends and page 7 to look at nonfarm employment trends since 1990.

ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA LABOR FORCE Not seasonally adjusted

MONTHLY ANNUAL AVERAGE

October 2016 (P)

October 2015

Percent Change

2015 2014 Percent Change

Total Civilian Labor Force

1,512,457 1,487,365 1.7% 1,481,423 1,457,491 1.6%

Total Employed 1,447,981 1,421,950 1.8% 1,406,552 1,366,121 3.0%

Total Unemployed 64,476 65,415 -1.4% 74,871 91,370 -18.1%

Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% -- 5.1% 6.3% --

UNITED STATES LABOR FORCE Not seasonally adjusted

Total Civilian Labor Force

159,783,000 157,313,000 1.6% 157,130,000 155,922,000 0.8%

Total Employed 152,335,000 149,716,000 1.7% 148,834,000 146,305,000 1.7%

Total Unemployed 7,447,000 7,597,000 -2.0% 8,296,000 9,617,000 -13.7%

Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.8% -- 5.3% 6.2% --


Labor Force & Unemployment Rates | PEOPLE

Snapshot ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT

From October 2015 to October 2016, the number of employed persons in the St. Louis region increased by more than 26,000 while the labor force increased by more than 25,000.


MONTHLY ANNUAL AVERAGE

October 2016 (P)

October 2015

Percent Change

2015 2014 Percent Change


U.S. Metros RATE CHANGE

October 2016 unemployment rate compared to October 2015

387 metropolitan areas total

Lower 231 Unchanged 29 Higher 127

JOBLESS RATE Thirty areas registered rates of less than 3 percent Three areas registered rates of at least 10 percent



Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and October 2016 rates are preliminary


Unemployment Trends | PEOPLE

Snapshot NATIONAL COMPARISON

The region’s unemployment rate continues to track closely with the national unemployment rate.

Unemployment by Peer Markets | PEOPLE

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

St. Louis MSA U.S.

5.5

%

5.5

%

4.9

%

4.7

%

4.5

%

4.4

%

4.3

%

4.1

%

4.1

%

4.1

%

3.6

%

3.6

%

3.1

%

2.9

%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Pitts

burg

h

Chic

ag

o

Atlanta

U.S

.

Cha

rlott

e

Baltim

ore

St. L

ou

is

Kan

sas

City

Cin

cin

nati

Researc

h T

rian

gle

Dallas

India

nap

olis

Min

neap

olis

Den

ver


Geographic Distribution of Unemployment Rates | PEOPLE

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics7 and Illinois Department of Employment Security8


October 2016


Civilian Labor Force | PEOPLE

AREA

CURRENT MONTH - October 2016 (P) YEAR AGO - October 2015

Labor Force Employment Unemployment

Labor Force Employment Unemployment

Number Rate Number Rate

United States 159,783,000 152,335,000 7,447,000 4.7% 157,313,000 149,716,000 7,597,000 4.8%

Illinois 6,561,428 6,197,403 364,025 5.5% 6,529,418 6,163,320 366,098 5.6%

Missouri 3,148,836 3,018,677 130,159 4.1% 3,116,491 2,990,937 125.554 4.0%

St. Louis, MO-IL 1,512,457 1,447,981 64,476 4.3% 1,487,365 1,421,950 65,415 4.4%

Missouri Counties

Franklin 53,901 51,983 2,008 3.7% 53,088 51,066 2,022 3.8%

Jefferson 120,720 116,126 4,594 3.8% 118,689 114,129 4,470 3.8%

Lincoln 27,499 26,481 1,018 3.7% 27,132 26,065 1,067 3.9%

St. Charles 222,075 214,812 7,263 3.3% 218,241 211,221 7,020 3.2%

St. Louis County 552,157 530,385 21,772 3.9% 542,202 521,615 20,587 3.8%

Warren 17,775 17,114 661 3.7% 17,511 16,847 664 3.8%

St. Louis City 166,133 157,414 8,719 5.2% 163,038 154,779 8,259 5.1%

Illinois Counties

Bond 8,187 7,810 377 4.6% 8,032 7,614 418 5.2%

Calhoun 2,429 2,292 137 5.6% 2,392 2,236 156 6.5%

Clinton 20,775 19,941 834 4.0% 20,351 19,464 887 4.4%

Jersey 11,436 10,837 599 5.2% 11,278 10,591 687 6.1%

Macoupin 23,833 22,596 1,237 5.2% 23,543 22,063 1,480 6.3%

Madison 136,939 129,643 7,296 5.3% 134,895 126,704 8,191 6.1%

Monroe 18,541 17,852 689 3.7% 18,250 17,440 810 4.4%

St. Clair 130,057 122,785 7,272 5.6% 128,723 120,026 8,697 6.8%

Missouri Cities of 25,000 or more

Ballwin 17,646 17,196 450 2.6% 17,414 16,912 502 2.9%

Chesterfield 25,873 25,128 745 2.9% 25,419 24,713 706 2.8%

Florissant 29,512 28,269 1,243 4.2% 28,987 27,802 1,185 4.1%

Hazelwood 14,494 13,833 661 4.6% 14,245 13,604 641 4.5%

Kirkwood 16,388 15,960 428 2.6% 16,148 15,696 452 2.8%

Maryland Hgts. 16,945 16,353 592 3.5% 16,633 16,083 550 3.3%

O'Fallon 48,927 47,486 1,441 2.9% 47,992 46,693 1,299 2.7%

St. Charles 39,125 37,838 1,287 3.3% 38,497 37,205 1,292 3.4%

St. Louis 166,133 157,414 8,719 5.2% 163,038 154,779 8,259 5.1%

St. Peters 34,664 33,579 1,085 3.1% 34,125 33,018 1,107 3.2%

University City 19,762 18,939 823 4.2% 19,348 18,626 722 3.7%

Wentzville 18,936 18,426 510 2.7% 18,595 18,118 477 2.6%

Wildwood 19,776 19,257 519 2.6% 19,508 18,938 570 2.9%

Illinois Cities of 25,000 or more

Alton 11,981 11,103 878 7.3% 11,910 10,851 1,059 8.9%

Belleville 23,040 21,717 1,323 5.7% 22,784 21,229 1,555 6.8%

Collinsville 13,204 12,537 667 5.1% 13,028 12,253 775 5.9%

East St. Louis 9,255 8,315 940 10.2% 9,301 8,128 1,173 12.6%

Edwardsville 13,524 12,916 608 4.5% 13,233 12,623 610 4.6%

Granite City 13,711 12,776 935 6.8% 13,626 12,486 1,140 8.4%

O'Fallon 14,058 13,408 650 4.6% 13,881 13,107 774 5.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics9 and Illinois Department of Employment Security10

ST . L O U I S M S A U N I T ED ST AT E S

Year Nonfarm

Employment Change

Percent Change

Nonfarm Employment

Change Percent Change

1992 1,160,900 2,700 0.2% 108,802,000 375,000 0.3%

1993 1,177,400 16,500 1.4% 110,935,000 2,133,000 2.0%

1994 1,209,600 32,200 2.7% 114,398,000 3,463,000 3.1%

1995 1,229,500 19,900 1.6% 117,407,000 3,009,000 2.6%

1996 1,250,400 20,900 1.7% 119,836,000 2,429,000 2.1%

1997 1,274,700 24,300 1.9% 122,951,000 3,115,000 2.6%

1998 1,295,700 21,000 1.6% 126,157,000 3,206,000 2.6%

1999 1,312,300 16,600 1.3% 129,240,000 3,083,000 2.4%

2000 1,327,000 14,700 1.1% 132,024,000 2,784,000 2.2%

2001 1,328,400 1,400 0.1% 132,087,000 63,000 0.0%

2002 1,321,600 (6,800) -0.5% 130,649,000 (1,438,000) -1.1%

2003 1,312,500 (9,100) -0.7% 130,347,000 (302,000) -0.2%

2004 1,312,100 (400) 0.0% 131,787,000 1,440,000 1.1%

2005 1,328,100 16,000 1.2% 134,051,000 2,264,000 1.7%

2006 1,341,800 13,700 1.0% 136,453,000 2,402,000 1.8%

2007 1,350,900 9,100 0.7% 137,999,000 1,546,000 1.1%

2008 1,347,300 (3,600) -0.3% 137,242,000 (757,000) -0.5%

2009 1,290,700 (56,600) -4.2% 131,313,000 (5,929,000) -4.3%

2010 1,281,300 (9,400) -0.7% 130,361,000 (952,000) -0.7%

2011 1,293,600 12,300 1.0% 131,932,000 1,571,000 1.2%

2012 1,294,300 700 0.1% 134,175,000 2,243,000 1.7%

2013 1,303,900 9,600 0.7% 136,381,000 2,206,000 1.6%

2014 1,319,700 15,800 1.2% 138,958,000 2,577,000 1.9%

2015 1,343,700 24,000 1.8% 141,865,000 2,907,000 2.1%

1992 - 2015 Total Change 182,800 15.7% Total Change 33,063,000 30.4%

Compound Average Growth Rate 0.64% Compound Average Growth Rate 1.16%

monthly employment summary | page 7

Over the Year Change

Nonfarm Employment | JOBS

ST . L O U I S M S A U N I T ED ST AT E S

Year October (P) Change Percent Change

October (P) Change Percent Change

2015 1,365,900 25,600 1.9% 143,689,000 2,823,000 2.0%

2016 1,398,600 32,700 2.4% 145,928,000 2,239,000 1.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics11

Nonfarm Employment | JOBS


U.S. Metro RATE CHANGE

October 2016 nonfarm employment compared to October 2015

387 metropolitan areas total

Increased 311 Unchanged 8 Decreased 68


Employment Growth by Peer Markets| JOBS

Source: ADP National Employment Report13



Looking Ahead - National Employment - November JOBS

National Total Nonfarm Private Job Growth

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

OCTOBER 2016 - NOVEMBER 2016

TOTAL JOBS +216,000

BY COMPANY SIZE

SMALL BUSINESSES

1 - 19 EMPLOYEES

20-49 EMPLOYEES

37,000

9,000

28,000

MEDIUM BUSINESSES

50-499 EMPLOYEES

LARGE BUSINESSES

500-999 EMPLOYEES

1,000+ EMPLOYEES

89,000

89,000

90,000

14,000

76,000

Industry Growth

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

OCTOBER 2016 - NOVEMBER 2016

GOODS -PRODUCING -11,000

MANUFACTURING -10,000

SERVICE -PRODUCING 228,000

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES

68,000

FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES

12,000

0.2

%

0.8

% 1.1

%

1.4

%

1.5

%

1.6

%

1.7

%

1.9

% 2.4

%

2.5

%

2.5

%

2.7

%

3.3

% 3.6

%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

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Employment Trends by Industry Sector| JOBS

PERCENT CHANGE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ST. LOUIS MSA AND U.S. OCTOBER 2015 TO OCTOBER 2016

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics15 Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and October 2016 rates are preliminary

CHANGE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ST. LOUIS MSA OCTOBER 2015 TO OCTOBER 2016


2.4%

4.5%

-1.9%

1.6%

-2.5%

2.3%

3.8%3.1%

1.6%

8.6%

0.8% 0.6%

1.6%1.0%

-0.5%

1.3%

0.3%

2.1%2.7%

2.7%2.6%

1.9%1.4%

0.9%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%T

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Care

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Go

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St. Louis U.S.

32,700

3,000

(2,100)

4,100

(700)

2,000

8,100

1,200 3,300

12,400

400 1,000

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

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Govern

ment

Forecast Month

More than 60 economists participate

in a monthly, national economic

forecast published by the Wall Street

Journal; this monthly consensus

forecast shows expectations for

modest economic growth through

2018.

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Survey16

Snapshot U.S. GDP is forecasted to grow 1.8 percent in 2016 and pick up to 2.2 percent in 2017 and 2.3 percent in 2018.

The nation’s unemployment rate is expected to stay below 5.0 percent through the end of 2018.

Economists continue to expect employment growth over the next 12 months. The forecast for jobs-per-month in November was 159,883, a level that would add about 1.9 million jobs over the next 12 months or an annual growth rate of about 1.3%.

YEAR END UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

MONTHLY PAYROLL GROWTH FORECASTS NEXT 12 MONTHS

National Forecasts

ANNUAL GDP FORECASTS


193,2

64

199,4

14

190,6

10

179,2

85

190,1

62

185,3

76

179,7

88

154,9

53

164,4

98

173,9

43

175,2

29

164,6

19

159,8

83

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Nov '1

5

Dec '1

5

Ja

n '16

Feb

'16

Mar

'16

Apr

'16

May '1

6

Ju

ne '1

6

Ju

ly '1

6

Aug

'16

Sep

t '1

6

Oct

'16

Nov '1

6

4.9%

4.6%4.6%

4.5%

4.6%

4.7%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018

1.8%2.2% 2.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018

Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases current

employment data in the Employment Situation. The data comes from two

different surveys: the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the

household survey, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey,

also known as the establishment or payroll survey.

While both surveys measure employment, they have different samples,

employment definitions, estimation procedures and concepts. These two

series track well together over long periods but, in the short term, do occa-

sionally diverge.

CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS SURVEY

MONTHLY SAMPLE Approximately 60,000

households

160,000 businesses & government agencies; firms

of all sizes are included

MEASUREMENT Unemployment &

employment with significant demographic detail

Employment, earnings, & hours with significant

industrial & geographic detail

REFERENCE PERIOD Week that includes

the 12th of the month Pay period that includes

the 12th of the month

WORK FORCE Only workers

aged 16 and older Employees of all

ages are included

EXHIBITS The number of

employed persons The number of

nonfarm payroll jobs

MULTIPLE JOB HOLDERS Counted once Counted for each payroll job

SELF-EMPLOYED PERSONS

Included Excluded

AGRICULTURE SECTOR Included Excluded

PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WORKERS

Included Excluded

UNPAID FAMILY WORKERS

Included Excluded

WORKERS ON LEAVE Included Excluded

Source: BLS, Monthly Labor Review17

monthly employment summary | page 11

Survey Comparison

Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development18


Current Employment Statistics Survey

Local Area Unemployment Statistics Survey

DESCRIPTION DATA SOURCE DEFINITION PROVISIONS

Monthly survey of nonfarm business establishments for the estimation of industry employment, hours and earnings, for the 50 states and 250 metropolitan statistical areas surveyed. The program is a federal-state cooperative program between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and State agencies. The national sample Consists of 400,000 businesses and is the largest survey of its kind. The count of jobs by place of work rather than of employed persons. Industry employment time series

Total number of non-supervisory/production workers

One of the earliest monthly economic indicators released by the government; usually causes immediate reaction in the stock and bond market Average weekly hours earnings View of the nation’s economic health through employment numbers; earnings trends and wage push inflation through average hourly earnings; and short term fluctuations in demand through average weekly hours of work

Monthly estimates of labor force, employment and unemployment for state and local areas. The local unemployment estimates are the basis for determining area eligibility for benefits under the Workforce Invest Act and other federal programs.

Cooperative effort between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & State agencies. Models use both current and historical data from the Current Population Survey, Current Employment Statistics program, and Unemployment Insurance statistics program to provide estimates of employment and unemployment. Persons age 16 or older who, in the survey week, worked for pay or profit, or worked unpaid in a family operated business, or were temporarily absent from their regular jobs. Labor force, employment and unemployment rates Comparative rates Monthly date from 1990 to present Insight into state and local governments’ planning and budgetary decisions Aids in the determination of need for employment and training services Determination of eligibility for federal programs and formula funding

1

“Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” , “Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Esti-mates” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/lau/home.htm#TABLES, Accessed 11/30/16.

2 “Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES)” U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment, Accessed 11/30/16.

3

“Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#unemployment, Accessed 8/30/16. “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, http://www.missourieconomy.org/indicators/laus/default.aspx, Accessed 11/30/16.

4 “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#unemployment, Accessed 11/30/16.


6 “Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment - October 2016” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/metro.pdf, Accessed 11/30/16.


8 “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” Illinois Department of Employment Security”, http://www.ides.illinois.gov/LMI/Pages/Local_Area_Unemployment_Statistics.aspx, Accessed 11/30/16


10 “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” Illinois Department of Employment Security”, http://www.ides.illinois.gov/LMI/Pages/Local_Area_Unemployment_Statistics.aspx, Accessed 11/30/16

11 “Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES)” U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=sm , Accessed 11/30/16.



14 “ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment November 2016” ADP, http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/, Accessed 11/30/2016


16 “Wall Street Journal Economic Survey: November 2016” http://online.wsj.com/public/page/economic-forecasting.html, Accessed 11/30/16.

17 “Understanding the Employment Measures from the CPS and CES Survey” Monthly Labor Review, March 2006, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/02/art2full.pdf, Accessed 5/1/09.

18 Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/Home.htm, Accessed 5/1/09.


Sources

http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=sm






ST. LOUIS REGIONAL CHAMBER O N E M E T R O P O L I T A N S Q U A R E ◦ S U I T E 1 3 0 0 ◦ S T . L O U I S , M O 6 3 1 0 2 ◦ 3 1 4 . 2 3 1 . 5 5 5 5 ◦ W W W . S T L R E G I O N A L C H A M B E R . C O M

THE ST. LOUI S REGIO N AL CHAMBER I S THE CHAMBER OF CO MMERCE AND ECONO MI C DEVELO PMENT ORGANIZATIO N FOR G REATER ST. LOUIS , W HICH INCLUDES 15 COUNTI ES IN MI SSOURI & I LL INOI S.

COMPILED BY

RUTH SERGENIAN

DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS

JASON WHITELEY

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INTERN

PREPARED November 30, 2016

NEXT RELEASE December 30, 2016

NEXT UPDATES • November 2016 data BLS U.S. Level ◦ December 2

BLS State Level ◦ December 16

MO & IL State Labor Market Release ◦ December 13 & November 17

BLS Metro Level ◦ December 29

ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA

monthly employment summary

Documents