monthly employment summary february 2016

GREATER ST. LOUIS

EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY

February 2016 Preliminary Data

Prepared April 6, 2016

Unemployment Rate | PEOPLE Seasonally adjusted

February 2016 January 2016 December 2015

St. Louis MSA 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%

Illinois 6.4% 6.3% 6.1%

Missouri 4.2% 4.2% 4.4%

United States 4.9% 4.9% 5.0%

Payroll Employment | JOBS Seasonally adjusted

February 2016 Job Change

Over the Month Percent Change Over the Month

St. Louis MSA 1,359,900 6,900 0.5%

Illinois 5,993,800 18,100 0.3%

Missouri 2,798,500 9,400 0.3%

United States 143,560,000 242,000 0.2%

OVERVIEW

Monthly Employment Summary | page 2

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics1


The nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.9% in February, unchanged from January. The region’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, was also unchanged holding at steady at 4.7% in January and February, re-maining just below the nation. Nationally, the preliminary seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment numbers for February saw the addition of 242,000 jobs or a 0.2% increase. The region’s seasonally adjusted payroll employment rose by 6,900 jobs for an over-the-month gain of 0.5%. The region’s not-seasonally adjusted payroll employment data series also points to job continuing growth in the region. Over-the-year unadjusted job data from February 2015 to February 2016 shows that total employment in the region rose by 20,300 or a 1.5% growth rate. At the same time employment grew by 1.9% nationally (See page 9). This summary is available on the Economic Overview page of the St. Louis Regional Chamber website. http://www.stlregionalchamber.com/regional-data/economy. The next summary will be available April 27, 2016. Please note that the preliminary data presented in this summary is subject to change. This month, the regional unem-ployment data is provisional and subject to change. One month’s data does not necessarily indicate a trend (See page 8). Please refer to the page 4 to see long term unemployment trends and page 7 to look at nonfarm employment trends since 1990.

ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA LABOR FORCE Not seasonally adjusted

MONTHLY ANNUAL AVERAGE

February 2016 (P)

February 2015

Percent Change

2015 2014 Percent Change

Total Civilian Labor Force

1,480,270 1,447,828 2.2% n/a 1,455,414 n/a

Total Employed 1,403,923 1,361,132 3.1% n/a 1,363,743 n/a

Total Unemployed 76,347 85,795 -11.9% n/a 91,671 n/a

Unemployment Rate 5.2% 6.0% — n/a 6.3% n/a

UNITED STATES LABOR FORCE Not Seasonally adjusted

Total Civilian Labor Force

158,279,000 156,213,000 1.3% 157,130,000 155,922,000 0.8%

Total Employed 150,060,000 147,118,000 2.0% 148,834,000 146,305,000 1.7%

Total Unemployed 8,219,000 9,095,000 -9.6% 8,296,000 9,617,000 -13.7%

Unemployment Rate 5.2% 5.8% — 5.3% 6.2% —


Labor Force & Unemployment Rates | PEOPLE

Snapshot ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT

From February 2015 to February 2016, the number of employed persons in the St. Louis region increased by nearly 55,000 while the labor force increased by about 45,600.


MONTHLY ANNUAL AVERAGE

February 2016 (P)

February 2015

Percent Change

2015 2014 Percent Change


Note: 2015 annual averages will be released April 15, 2016

U.S. Metros RATE CHANGE

February 2016 unemployment rate compared to February 2015

387 metropolitan areas total

Lower 296 Unchanged 15 Higher 76

JOBLESS RATE Eleven areas registered rates of less than 3% Eleven areas registered rates of at least 10%



Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and February 2016 rates are preliminary


Unemployment Trends | PEOPLE

Snapshot NATIONAL COMPARISON

The region’s unemploy-ment rate continues to track closely with the national unemployment rate.

Unemployment by Peer Markets | PEOPLE

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

St. Louis MSA U.S.

6.8

%

5.6

%

5.3

%

5.3

%

5.2

%

5.2

%

5.0

%

4.9

%

4.9

%

4.8

%

4.5

%

3.9

%

3.7

%

3.1

%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Chic

ag

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Den

ver


Geographic Distribution of Unemployment Rates | PEOPLE

February 2016




Civilian Labor Force | PEOPLE

AREA

CURRENT MONTH - February 2016 (P) YEAR AGO - February 2015

Labor Force Employment Unemployment

Labor Force Employment Unemployment

Number Rate Number Rate

United States 158,279,000 150,060,000 8,219,000 5.2% 156,213,000 147,118,000 9,095,000 5.8%

Illinois 6,575,202 6,116,476 458,726 7.0% 6,459,564 6,041,231 418,333 6.5%

Missouri 3,142,398 2,985,128 157,270 5.0% 3,090,650 2,901,063 189,587 6.1%

St. Louis, MO-IL 1,493,373 1,415,703 77,670 5.2% 1,447,828 1,361,132 86,696 6.0%

Missouri Counties

Franklin 53,699 50,885 2814 5.2% 52,297 48,804 3,493 6.7%

Jefferson 120,171 113,953 6218 5.2% 116,506 109,013 7,493 6.4%

Lincoln 27,492 25953 1539 5.6% 26,626 24,767 1,859 7.0%

St. Charles 219,748 211,158 8,590 3.9% 210,032 199,788 10,244 4.9%

St. Louis County 544,644 520,790 23,854 4.4% 530,769 500,788 29,981 5.6%

Warren 17,676 16,769 907 5.1% 17,100 15,999 1,101 6.4%

St. Louis City 163,654 154,673 8,981 5.5% 160,804 149,240 11,564 7.2%

Illinois Counties

Bond 7,930 7,363 567 7.2% 7,723 7,276 447 5.8%

Calhoun 2,384 2,168 216 9.1% 2,343 2,161 182 7.8%

Clinton 20,244 18,978 1,266 6.3% 19,488 18,500 988 5.1%

Jersey 11,226 10,396 830 7.4% 10,846 10,126 720 6.6%

Macoupin 23,354 21,520 1,834 7.9% 22,679 21,141 1,538 6.8%

Madison 134,900 125,194 9,706 7.2% 129,514 121,537 7,977 6.2%

Monroe 18,163 17,185 978 5.4% 17,363 16,546 817 4.7%

St. Clair 128,088 118,718 9,370 7.3% 123,738 115,446 8,292 6.7%

Missouri Cities of 25,000 or more

Ballwin 17,467 16,885 582 3.3% 16,912 16,240 672 4.0%

Chesterfield 25,477 24,674 803 3.2% 24,715 23,723 992 4.0%

Florissant 29,132 27,758 1,374 4.7% 28,323 26,734 1,589 5.6%

Hazelwood 14,321 13,583 738 5.2% 13,883 13,068 815 5.9%

Kirkwood 16,193 15,671 522 3.2% 15,652 15,041 611 3.9%

Maryland Hgts. 16,710 16,058 652 3.9% 16,276 15,465 811 5.0%

O'Fallon 48,327 46,679 1,648 3.4% 46,136 44,233 1,903 4.1%

St. Charles 38,846 37,194 1,652 4.3% 37,412 35,484 1,928 5.2%

St. Louis 163,654 154,673 8,981 5.5% 160,804 149,240 11,564 7.2%

St. Peters 34,206 33,008 1,198 3.5% 32,521 31,034 1,487 4.6%

University City 19,356 18,596 760 3.9% 18,919 17,906 1,013 5.4%

Wentzville 18,702 18,112 590 3.2% 17,387 16,692 695 4.0%

Wildwood 19,541 18,908 633 3.2% 18,961 18,172 789 4.2%

Illinois Cities of 25,000 or more

Alton 11,694 10,722 972 8.3% 11,386 10,426 960 8.4%

Belleville 22,676 20,997 1,679 7.4% 21,894 20,500 1,394 6.4%

Collinsville 13,075 12,108 967 7.4% 12,603 11,807 796 6.3%

East St. Louis 8,990 8,039 951 10.6% 8,693 7,760 933 10.7%

Granite City 13,648 12,337 1,311 9.6% 12,928 12,026 902 7.0%

O'Fallon 13,819 12,964 855 6.2% 13,322 12,580 742 5.6%


ST . L O U I S M S A U N I T ED ST AT E S

Year Nonfarm

Employment Change

Percent Change

Nonfarm Employment

Change Percent Change

1992 1,160,900 2,700 0.2% 108,802,000 375,000 0.3%

1993 1,177,400 16,500 1.4% 110,935,000 2,133,000 2.0%

1994 1,209,600 32,200 2.7% 114,398,000 3,463,000 3.1%

1995 1,229,500 19,900 1.6% 117,407,000 3,009,000 2.6%

1996 1,250,400 20,900 1.7% 119,836,000 2,429,000 2.1%

1997 1,274,700 24,300 1.9% 122,951,000 3,115,000 2.6%

1998 1,295,700 21,000 1.6% 126,157,000 3,206,000 2.6%

1999 1,312,300 16,600 1.3% 129,240,000 3,083,000 2.4%

2000 1,327,000 14,700 1.1% 132,024,000 2,784,000 2.2%

2001 1,328,400 1,400 0.1% 132,087,000 63,000 0.0%

2002 1,321,600 (6,800) -0.5% 130,649,000 (1,438,000) -1.1%

2003 1,312,500 (9,100) -0.7% 130,347,000 (302,000) -0.2%

2004 1,312,100 (400) 0.0% 131,787,000 1,440,000 1.1%

2005 1,328,100 16,000 1.2% 134,051,000 2,264,000 1.7%

2006 1,341,800 13,700 1.0% 136,453,000 2,402,000 1.8%

2007 1,350,900 9,100 0.7% 137,999,000 1,546,000 1.1%

2008 1,347,300 (3,600) -0.3% 137,242,000 (757,000) -0.5%

2009 1,290,700 (56,600) -4.2% 131,313,000 (5,929,000) -4.3%

2010 1,281,300 (9,400) -0.7% 130,361,000 (952,000) -0.7%

2011 1,293,600 12,300 1.0% 131,932,000 1,571,000 1.2%

2012 1,294,300 700 0.1% 134,175,000 2,243,000 1.7%

2013 1,303,900 9,600 0.7% 136,381,000 2,206,000 1.6%

2014 1,319,700 15,800 1.2% 138,958,000 2,577,000 1.9%

2015 1,343,700 24,000 1.8% 141,865,000 2,907,000 2.1%

1992 - 2015 Total Change 182,800 15.7% Total Change 33,063,000 30.4%

Compound Average Growth Rate 0.64% Compound Average Growth Rate 1.16%

monthly employment summary | page 7

Over the Year Change

Nonfarm Employment | JOBS

ST . L O U I S M S A U N I T ED ST AT E S

Year February (P) Change Percent Change

February (P) Change Percent Change

2015 1,314,600 22,600 1.7% 139,343,000 3,023,000 2.3%

2016 1,334,900 20,300 1.5% 142,005,000 2,662,000 1.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics9

Nonfarm Employment | JOBS


U.S. Metro RATE CHANGE

February 2016 nonfarm employment compared to February 2015

387 metropolitan areas total

Increased 323 Unchanged 2 Decreased 62


Employment Growth by Peer Markets| JOBS

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 11



Looking Ahead - National Employment - March JOBS

0.1

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1.5

%

1.6

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1.6

%

1.7

%

1.8

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1.9

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2.0

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2.2

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2.6

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National Total Nonfarm Industry Growth

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

TOTAL JOBS +215,000

GOODS -PRODUCING -4,000

MANUFACTURING -19,000

SERVICE -PRODUCING 219,000

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES

33,000

FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES

15,000

Employment Trends by Industry Sector| JOBS

PERCENT CHANGE IN NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ST. LOUIS MSA AND U.S. FEBRUARY 2015 TO FEBRUARY 2016

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics13 Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and February 2016 rates are preliminary

CHANGE IN NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ST. LOUIS MSA FEBRUARY 2015 TO FEBRUARY 2016


20,300

(100)(1,600)

2,300

(1,000)

2,700 3,400

1,600

7,600

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1.9% 1.6%

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Govern

ment

St. Louis U.S.

Forecast Month

72 economists participate in a

monthly, national economic fore-

cast published by the Wall Street

Journal; this monthly consensus

forecast shows expectations for

modest economic growth through

2018.

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Survey14

Snapshot U.S. GDP is forecast to grow by 2.4% in 2016 and 2.3% in 2017 and 2018.

The nation’s unemployment rate is expected to continue to fall, remaining below 5.0% through the end of 2018.

Economists continue to expect employment growth over the next 12 months. The forecast for jobs per month in March was 190,162, a level that would add 2.3 million jobs over the next 12 months or an annual growth rate of about 1.6%.

YEAR END UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

MONTHLY PAYROLL GROWTH FORECASTS

National Forecasts

ANNUAL GDP FORECASTS


239,

063

218,

586

219,

505

220,

332

207,

505

209,

399

204,

248

190,

089

193,

264

199,

414

190,

610

179,

285

190,

162

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Mar

'15

Apr

'15

May

'15

June

'15

July

'15

Aug

'15

Sep

t '15

Oct

'15

Nov

'15

Dec

'15

Jan

'16

Feb

'16

Mar

'16

4.6% 4.6%4.6%

4.5%

4.6%

4.7%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018

2.4% 2.3% 2.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018

Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on current

employment in the Employment Situation. The data comes from two dif-

ferent surveys: the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the

household survey, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey,

also known as the establishment or payroll survey.

While both surveys measure employment, they have different samples,

different definitions of employment, different estimation procedures, and

different concepts. These two series track well together over long peri-

ods but, in the short term, do occasionally diverge.

CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS SURVEY

MONTHLY SAMPLE Approximately 60,000

households

160,000 businesses & government agencies; firms

of all sizes are included

MEASUREMENT Unemployment &

employment with significant demographic detail

Employment, earnings, & hours with significant

industrial & geographic detail

REFERENCE PERIOD Week that includes

the 12th of the month Pay period that includes

the 12th of the month

WORK FORCE Only workers

aged 16 and older Employees of all

ages are included

EXHIBITS The number of

employed persons The number of

nonfarm payroll jobs

MULTIPLE JOB HOLDERS Counted once Counted for each payroll job

SELF-EMPLOYED PERSONS

Included Excluded

AGRICULTURE SECTOR Included Excluded

PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WORKERS

Included Excluded

UNPAID FAMILY WORKERS

Included Excluded

WORKERS ON LEAVE Included Excluded

Source: BLS, Monthly Labor Review15

monthly employment summary | page 11

Survey Comparison

Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development16


Current Employment Statistics Survey

Local Area Unemployment Statistics Survey

DESCRIPTION DATA SOURCE DEFINITION PROVISIONS

Monthly survey of non-farm business establishments for the estimation of industry employment, hours & earnings, for the 50 states & 250 metropolitan statistical areas surveyed. The program is a federal-state cooperative program between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statis-tics & State agencies. The national sample Consists of 400,000 businesses & is the largest survey of its kind. Employed: the count of jobs by place of work rather than of em-ployed persons Industry employment time series

Total number of non-supervisory/production workers

One of the earliest monthly economic indicators released by the government; usually causes immediate reaction in the stock and bond market Average weekly hours earnings View of the nation’s economic health through employment num-bers; earnings trends and wage push inflation through average hourly earnings; and short term fluctuations in demand through average weekly hours of work

Monthly estimates of labor force, employment, and unemployment for state and local areas. The local unemployment estimates are the basis for determining area eligibility for benefits under the Workforce Invest Act & other federal programs.

Cooperative effort between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & State agencies. Models use both current & historical data from the Current Population Survey, Current Employment Statistics program, & Unemployment Insurance statistics program to provide estimates of employment & unemployment. Persons age 16 or older who, in the survey week, worked for pay or profit, or worked unpaid in a family operated business, or were temporarily absent from their regular jobs. Labor force, employment and unemployment rates Comparative rates Monthly date from 1990 to present Insight into state and local governments’ planning and budgetary decisions Aids in the determination of need for em-ployment and training services Determination of eligibility for federal pro-grams and formula funding

1

“Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” , “Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Esti-mates” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/lau/home.htm#TABLES, Accessed 4/06/16.

2 “Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES)” U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment, Accessed 4/06/16.

3

“Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#unemployment, Accessed 4/06/16. “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, http://www.missourieconomy.org/indicators/laus/default.aspx, Accessed 4/06/16.

4 “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#unemployment, Accessed 4/06/16.


6 “Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment - January 2016” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/metro.pdf, Accessed 4/06/16.



9 “Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES)” U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=sm , Accessed 4/06/16.



12 “Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment - February 2016” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/metro.pdf, Accessed 4/06/16.


14 “Wall Street Journal Economic Survey: March 2016” http://online.wsj.com/public/page/economic-forecasting.html, Accessed 4/06/16.

15 “Understanding the Employment Measures from the CPS and CES Survey” Monthly Labor Review, February 2006, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/02/art2full.pdf, Accessed 5/1/09.

16 Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/Home.htm, Accessed 5/1/09.


Sources

http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=sm






ST. LOUIS REGIONAL CHAMBER O N E M E T R O P O L I T A N S Q U A R E ◦ S U I T E 1 3 0 0 ◦ S T . L O U I S , M O 6 3 1 0 2 ◦ 3 1 4 . 2 3 1 . 5 5 5 5 ◦ W W W . S T L R E G I O N A L C H A M B E R . C O M

THE ST. LOUI S REGIO N AL CHAMBER I S THE CHAMBER OF CO MMERCE AND ECONO MI C DEVELO PMENT ORGANIZATIO N FOR G REATER ST. LOUIS , W HICH INCLUDES 15 COUNTI ES IN MI SSOURI & I LL INOI S.

COMPILED BY

RUTH SERGENIAN

DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS

THOMAS WASH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INTERN

PREPARED April 6, 2016

Next release April 27, 2016

NEXT UPDATES • ,March 2016 data BLS U.S. Level ◦ April 1

BLS State Level ◦ April 15

MO & IL State Labor Market Release ◦ April 19 and 21

BLS Metro Level ◦ April 27

ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA

monthly employment summary february 2016

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