monitoring and prediction of global monsoons at the noaa
TRANSCRIPT
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Monitoring and Prediction of Global Monsoons at the NOAA Climate
Prediction Center
Song Yang and CPC Global Monsoons Team
Maryland, USA
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global- Monsoon.shtml
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1. CPC Global Monsoons Team
2. Products of CPC Monsoon Team(Monitoring and Prediction)
3. CPC Weekly Monsoon Updates
4. NCEP International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk
Outline
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1. CPC Global Monsoon Team
Team MembersM. Chelliah, J. Gottschalck, W. Higgins, V. Kumar, K. Mo, J. Schemm, W. Shi, V. Silva, W. Thiaw, W. Wang, P. Xie, S.
Yang, S.-H. Yoo, and Q. Zhang
Monsoon GroupsAfrican Monsoons
American MonsoonsAsian-Australian Monsoons
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• To improve international services on monitoring and predictions of the global monsoon systems
• To consolidate the climate monitoring efforts at CPC
• To provide information for U.S. and global hazard assessments
• To provide information for improving the prediction of U.S. and global climate
• To provide real-time information about monsoons to the research/academic sector
Main Objectives
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CPC Global Monsoons webpage
Monitoring of current conditions & evolutions of monsoons
Monsoon climatological and statistical features
Monsoon predictions
Weekly monsoon updates
Seasonal and annual monsoon summaries
Publications of monsoons in NOAA products
Others
2. Current Products of CPC Global Monsoon Team
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Global patternsMultiple parameters, total fields & anomalies
For the past 7 (or 5), 30, and 90 days, mostly updated dailyhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml
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From Global to Regional
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
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Daily Precipitation Time Series5x5 latitude-longitude average
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/180d -precip_click_map.shtml
Drought over Southwest China
180 days 90 days 30 days
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Week-1 & Week-2 Predictions
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Predictions of Monsoon Indices
Prediction of monthly Webster-Yang index
Prediction of daily Webster-Yang index
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JJA Relationships of Webster-Yang Monsoon Index with Rainfall and 850-mb Circulation Patterns
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Performance of NCEP CFS
JJA Precipitation
Monthly dynamical monsoon indices
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Performance of NCEP CFS (cont.)
Skill of prediction of daily Webster-Yang index
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Climatological onset dates of Asian summer monsoon
Monsoon Climatology
Climatological onset dates of West African monsoon
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North American Monsoon Forecast Forum
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and
Prediction
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
June 28, 2010
For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
3. CPC Weekly Monsoon Updates
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4. NCEP International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk
ObjectivesTo develop a capacity for improving climate prediction for countries
affected by monsoons and to facilitate international operational
collaboration.
Mission StatementTo build capacity in the prediction of monsoon weather and climate in
Asian countries through interagency and international cooperation to
help mitigate the impacts of natural hazards, to assess vulnerability
related to water supply and food security, and to save lives.
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Main Features
• Location: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Maryland
• Establishment in October 2010
• Format of training: Lecture, tours, hands-on, projects, reports, and follow- on collaborations
• Terms: 4 months per term, starting May 2011
• Content of training:
Lectures (Asian-Australian monsoon, African monsoon, North American monsoon, South American monsoon, ENSO, MJO, hazards, CPC forecast operations, and weather-climate enterprise), applications of NOAA products (data sets, models, and climate monitoring and prediction products), principles and methods of climate prediction, participations at CPC climate forecasts, hands-on training, model evaluations, development of monitoring and prediction products, research project, and others
• Administrative and logistic supports and visa application assistance
