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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Space Weather Prediction Center Products and Services

Joe Kunches & Bill MurtaghNOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC

Boulder, CO

NOAA GPS/GNSS WorkshopBoulderOctober 24, 2007


Overview

• SWPC Forecast Office and

ISES

• Event products tied to NOAA

Space Weather Scales

• SWPC Customers

• Case Study: 18 August 2003

Severe (G4) Magnetic Storm

• Customer economic impacts

• Verification and Validation

critical

• Vision for future products


Assess, Predict, Engage, Advise & Inform

Space Weather Forecast Office

•Joint USAF/NOAA Center, staffed 24/7

•Provide alerts, warnings, watches, and scheduled products to non-DOD customers

•Quality driven, verify forecasts

•Aggressively strive for product improvement

•Function as World Warning Agency for the International Space Environment Service

International Space Environment Service (ISES)

NOAA Space Weather Scales

Introduced in 1999

Similar to Hurricane and Tornado intensity scales (1 thru 5)

Three Categories– Radio Blackouts, R-scale

(Caused by Solar Flares)– Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale

(Caused by Particle Events)– Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale

(Caused by CMEs)

Equivalent Physical Measures– Radio Blackouts, R-scale:

Solar X-ray Flux on GOES– Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale:

Energetic Proton Flux on GOES– Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale:

Ground-based Magnetometer deviations

A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA

space weather services today:

• U.S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dept. of Transportation ( GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • DoD Operations

DOENuclear Reg Comm

SchlumbergerNY/PJM Grid

BallLoral

NESDIS/SOCCDigital Globe

BoeingLockheedAerospaceEchostar

NASASpace Command

ISS AstronautsFAA

AmericanUnited Airlines

NorthwestContinental

Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers

NOAA SpaceEnvironmentCenter

Sunspot CyclesSunspot Cycles

Commercial Space Transportation

Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology

Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation


Who Really Cares?

• NASA Manned Space Flight– May alter EVA’s during adverse space weather

• GPS Survey Operations– Can’t work during storms

• Commercial Airlines– Dispatchers change routes to accommodate conditions

• Missile Launch Operations– Atlas launches include space weather information

• Electric Utilities– Configure grid in a more robust/less profitable state

• Emerging Applications– E911 Emergency Services– Traffic Management

Impact Area Customer (examples) Action (examples) Cost (examples)

Spacecraft

(Individual systems to complete spacecraft failure; comm and radiation effects)

Lockheed Martin, Orbital, Aerospace Corp, Boeing, Digital Globe, Sciences Corp, Space Systems Loral, NASA, NOAA, DoD

- Postpone launch

- In orbit - Reboot systems; Turn off/safe instruments and/or spacecraft

Loss of spacecraft can exceed

$500M

Commercial loss exceeds $1B

Worst case storm - $100B

Electric Power

(Equipment damage to electrical grid failure and blackout conditions)

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Allegheny Power, Central Maine, American Transmission Company

Many mitigating actions:- adjust/reduce system load - disconnect components, - postpone maintenance

-Estimated loss ~$400M from unexpected geomagnetic storms

- $3-6B loss in GDP (blackout)

Airlines (Communications)

(Loss of flight HF radio communications)

United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet, etc.

Divert polar flights, change flight plans

Change altitude

Cost ~ $100k per diverted flight

$10-50k for re-routes

Airlines (Radiation)

(Radiation dose on crew and passengers)

United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas, Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet etc.

Divert polar flights, change flight plans

Change altitude (even at mid-latitudes)

- Cost ~$100k per diverted

flight

- Health risks

Surveying & Navigation

(Use of magnetic field or GPS could be impacted)

FAA-WAAS, New York and Texas Dept. of Transportation, BP Alaska, Schlumberger, GlobalSantaFe, etc.

Postpone activities; Redo survey; Use alternate or backup navigation tools

BP Alaska cost $10,000 per day, other surveys have similar costs

Vendor Industry

(Servicing the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), and National Grid)

Northwest Research Assoc., INC

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch

Metatech Corp.

Data used in real time to alert electric power companies of significant geomagnetic storms

NOAA’s Space Weather Services NOAA’s Space Weather Services ~ Economic and Societal Impacts ~~ Economic and Societal Impacts ~


Forecasts of Ionospheric Conditions the Target

• With the right mix of real time data– Near the Sun

– Interplanetary

– Ionospheric

• Plus good models– USTEC

– “Son of USTEC”

• Good predictions can be made

• August 2003 severe magnetic storm prediction is an illustration

18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm

Geomagnetic Alerts and Warnings issued to over 500 customers -

Government

NASAFAA

US Nuclear Reg CommissionNOAA/NESDIS/SOCC

U.S. Department of EnergyITS

NISTmore…

Transportation

Virgin Atlantic Airways LtdUnited Airlines

Oakland Oceanic Air Traffic Control CtrAMTRAKFAA/ATC

more…

Communications/Nav/GPS

SES-AmericomJohnson, Frank & Associates, Inc.

AT&T Sat Comm OpsAT&T Network Operations Ctr

COMSAT General CorpGE Americom

ARINCINTELSAT

more…

Space Operations

NASA/SRAGEuropean Space AgencyCanadian Space Agency

Lockheed Martin Missiles and SpaceSpace Systems/Loral

Hughes Space & CommBoeing Space Station

more…

Electric Power

Electric Research & Management New York Independent System Operator

Deer Lake Power Bonneville Power AdministrationAmerican Transmission CompanyVirginia Electric Power Company

more…

18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE EPAM18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE EPAM

Solar eruption occurred on 14 Aug

Large mass ejectionimpacts ACE on 17 Aug

ACE Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM)

- The enhancements in the low energy protons alerted forecasters to the strong possibility of an Earthbound coronal mass ejection, over 24 hours in advance! - The magnitude of the enhancement suggested a strong magnetic storm was possible.

18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE SWEPAM18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE SWEPAM

The mass ejection impacts ACE on 17 Aug/1340Z – almost 66 hours after the eruption on the sun.

Measurements at L1 provide 30-45 minutes leadtime beforethe mass ejection impacts the Earth’s magnetic field, but interplanetary magnetic field

information will determine which warnings should be issued.

18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE Mag18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE Mag

Strong magnetic field measurements at ACE alert forecasters to potentially severe geomagnetic storming.

The Magnetic Field Instrument (MAG)

- Forecasters wait for “rotation”, then issue K6 warning at 18/0439Z to over 400 customers.

- K6 occurs at 18/0641Z – 2:02 Hours Leadtime!


Space Weather Effects

• The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month

• Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)

Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued During Solar Cycle 23Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued During Solar Cycle 23

NOAA space weather alerts and NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups…subordinate groups…

NOAA/SECRadiation

Alert/Warning

NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group

NASA Mission Control•NASA Management•Flight Control•Biomedical Engineers•Surgeon

ESA (Europe) Mission Control

NASDA (Japan) Mission Control

CSA (Canada) Mission Control

RSA (Russia) Mission Control

Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems

Lockheed Martin Management

Service Begins

ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users:

Japan U.S. Government .com (commercial) United KingdomEducation .net (commercial)Germany RussiaAustralia Belgium

46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site:

• 35 updating plots • 8 real-time lists• 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials"

Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data

• A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers

• SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month

http://sunbeam/SWN/sw_dials.html

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

mo

de

ls

Models - in development; being evaluated for operations; in use internationallyModels used in SEC Operations

Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind

DataData

• SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations• Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow• Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet

• ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six

• Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month.

– ~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products

– more than 250,000 unique customers per month– customers from 150 countries

NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite.

• A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers

• Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only) – 140,000 unique users monthly

• Five million POES file transfers per month (web only)– 185,000 unique users monthly– 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data

All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!

Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer SummaryTraffic and Customer Summary

NOAA/SEC Real Time Data NOAA/SEC Real Time Data - an - an absoluteabsolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations requirement to support worldwide DoD operations

NOAA/SEC Data(Primarily Satellite)

- Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets - Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems - Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews - HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations - SATCOM interference/downlink problems - Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations

>80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data

STRATCOM

USAFAir Force

Weather Agency

Joint Space Ops Center

Missile Defense Agency

Space Command

U.S. Northern Command and NORAD

Army and Navy Operations

National Reconnaissance Office

NationalSecurityImpacts


Some Economic Estimates

The direct global economic impact of SW has been estimated at about $200 M per year

Rationale and Requirements for A Space Weather Programme

(Richard B. Horne, 2001), 3.

US Department of Defense spends $500M per year to mitigate space weather effects

Storms from the Sun (Carlowicz and Lopez, 2002), 128.

Between 6/00 and 12/01 space weather added $650 million of costs to the wholesale price of electricity in one power pool in the U.S. ($433 million/yr)

Space Weather and the Electricity Market (Forbes & St. Cyr, 2002)

Williamson et al,Space Policy InstituteThe George Washington University


Navigation Systems and GPS

Ionospheric disturbances result in system failure, loss of phase lock, and position errors

A 1% gain in continuity and availability of GPS would be worth $180M per year

Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme (DERA, 2000), 21.



Electric Power: Geomagnetically Induced Currents

GIC in transmission lines cause:Power surges, network supply interruptions, transformer

damage, and reduced lifetime of components – and any single failure can develop into cascading damages and outages

A geomagnetic storm in 1989 caused $13.2M in damage to power systems operators in Quebec, and another $27M to power operators in NJ; additional social and direct economic costs to customers

Natural Resources, Government of Canada



Electric Power

Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimates that a GIC- induced black out in the NE could result in $3-6B loss in GDP

Earth in Space, Vol. 9 No 7 1997

Space weather in deregulated grid can cause the cost of electricity to jump from $15 to $68 per MW on spot market

Forbes & St. Cyr, 2002

Cost of shielding power lines from GIC is prohibitive, some preventive measures can be taken with prediction notice

Storms from the Sun, 104.

After 1989, Hydro-Quebec spent $1.2B on capacitors to prevent flow of GIC direct current

New Scientist “Fire in the Sky” 1999



Satellites & Spacecraft

Space weather is a serious consideration for spacecraft designers, satellite operators, and space insurance companies

Estimated annual benefit of avoiding space weather losses: $11M

Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 20.

In 1989, a space weather storm caused such significant orbital decay that Air Force Space Command lost track of 1,300 of the 8,000 objects under observation to orbital decay

– Of possible concern to human spaceflight crews

SW loss of a satellite could be confused with a hostile act by an adversary or potential adversary



Satellites In March 1989, 7 geostationary satellites made 177 orbital

adjustments in 2 days, more than normally made in a year, reducing the satellites’ useful life


Spacecraft insurance companies paid out $500M between 1994-1999 for on-orbit failures (some from space weather effects)

Space Environment Center Topic Paper: Satellites and Space Weather

In 1998-2000, space insurance payouts = twice premiumsBenefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 27.

Improved space weather prediction could provide insurers with better risk assessment capabilities



Satellites In 1997, destruction of AT&T’s Telestar satellite

disrupted TV networks and part of the US earthquake monitoring network, and forced renegotiation of the sale of Telestar, resulting in a drop of $234M in value


Disruptions to government satellites cost about $100M per year, with potential to be reduced by 50% through improved anomaly diagnostics

Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 21.

Space Launch– Space weather exacts extra costs for space launch when it causes

launches to be delayed– With 2 days warning of solar proton events, Arianespace could

save up to $2.5M per year (Benefits of Space Weather Programme)


Kent A. DoggettNOAA Space Environment Center

Space Weather Operations

Boulder, Colorado, USA

Creating Valuable Space Weather Products:Transition and Verification at SEC Space Weather Operations

Space Weather WeekMay 19–22, 2003


Future Products

• Forecasts, Forecasts, Forecasts!!!– IF GOES, STEREO, and SDO give better solar observations– AND ACE, STEREO, KwaFu give the solar wind propagating

earthward– PLUS CORS, COSMIC give ionospheric conditions globally– THEN USTEC and newer renditions give predictions for

Positioning /Navigation/Timing (PNT) users

• External User Base continues to grow– Electronic navigation (GPS III, Galileo, Glonass, Compass,

etc., plus backup system eLoran)– Commercial providers, per recent interaction with AGI– NextGen, E911/E112, ADS-B implementations all rely on

GPS/GNSS to be the best it can be

• Internal to NOAA, User Base also expanding– Airborne, marine, ground surveying all need optimal

GPS/GNSS

noaa space weather prediction center space weather prediction center products and services joe...

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