u.s. godae: global ocean prediction with community effort: community effort: nrl, fsu, u. of miami,...
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U.S. GODAE: Global U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with Ocean Prediction with
Community Effort:Community Effort: NRL, FSU, U. of Miami, NASA-GISS, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/AOML, NOAA/PMEL, PSI, FNMOC, NAVOCEANO, SHOM, LEGI, OPeNDAP, UNC, Rutgers, USF, Fugro-GEOS, Orbimage, Shell, ExxonMobil
GODAE: The visionGODAE: The vision
"A global system of observations, communications, modeling and assimilation,
that will deliver regular, comprehensive information on the state of the oceans in a way that will promote and engender wide utility and availability of this resource for
maximum benefit to society."
Objectives and GoalsObjectives and Goals
• A broad partnership of institutions that collaborate in developing and demonstrating the performance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global and basin-scale ocean prediction systems using HYCOM.
• Transition to operational use by the U.S. Navy at NAVOCEANO and by NOAA at NCEP.
• Strong participation of the coastal ocean modeling community in using and evaluating boundary conditions from the global and basin-scale ocean modeling prediction systems
• Efficient data distribution (100 Terrabytes Storage Area Network)
The data are available to the community at large within 24 hours via Live Access Server (LAS), ftp, and OPeNDAP at http://www.hycom.org
Objectives and GoalsObjectives and Goals
STORAGE AREA NETWORKSTORAGE AREA NETWORK
• Software• Red Hat Linux• Red Hat cluster suite and Global
File System• Apache Web Server • THREDDS• LAS Server• Vsftpd server
100 TB Fibre Channel SAN
Three 8 CPU machines
32 GB RAM/machine
Currently Available DatasetsCurrently Available Datasets
• Daily outputs from the real time Global HYCOM+NCODA analysis
• Global HYCOM+NCODA analysis (2004- present)
• Global non-assimilative HYCOM (2003-2007)
• Near real-time 1/12 Atlantic Ocean prediction system output (June 2003 – Present)
• Monthly mean 1/12 Pacific Ocean simulation output (1978-2003)
1/12º global real time system (NRL)1/12º global real time system (NRL)- 4500 x 3298 grid points, ~6.5 km spacing on average, ~3.5 km at pole - 32 σ2*
vertical coordinate surfaces - Monthly river runoff (986 rivers)- NOGAPS atmospheric forcing- Assimilation: NCODA
1/25º Gulf of Mexico real time system (NRL)1/25º Gulf of Mexico real time system (NRL)- Running since November 2006- Assimilation: NCODA- 5 day hindcast, 7 day forecast
NOAA/NCEP Atlantic real-time systemNOAA/NCEP Atlantic real-time system- - Orthogonal grid (1200 x 1684 points) - 25 vertical coordinates (18 isopycnal, 7 z-level)- Forcing fields from 3-hour NCEP (GDAS/GFS) model - Tides:M2, S2, N2, K1, P1, O1, K2, Q1 tidal modes - Rivers from daily USGS data and RIVDIS climatology - Data Assimilation (SSH, SST,T, S, profiles)
PresentPresentnowcast/forecast systemsnowcast/forecast systems
with assimilation (GLBa0.08-60.4)
without assimilation (GLBa0.08-05.8)
Overall increase in variability - largest changes occur in the western boundary currents
1/121/12ºº Global HYCOM Global HYCOMSSH and surface driftersSSH and surface drifters
Smedstad et al.
Eddy Kinetic Energy ComparisonEddy Kinetic Energy ComparisonSurface EKE in the Gulf Stream
3000 cm2/s2
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
NCOM - 2004
Observations fromFratantoni (2001) –Based on 1990-99
surface drifters
HYCOM - 2004
Eddy Kinetic Energy ComparisonEddy Kinetic Energy ComparisonEKE at ~700 m in the Gulf Stream
Observations fromSchmitz (1996)
HYCOM - 2004NCOM - 2004
WorldOcean Gulf Stream
NW Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman
EquatorialPacific Kuroshio Gulf of Mexico
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Med
ian
SS
H a
no
mal
y co
rrel
atio
n
0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30
Forecast length (days)
Forecast verification statistics Forecast verification statistics from .08from .08 global HYCOM global HYCOM
4 Forecasts included in statistics
Product evaluationProduct evaluation
– Assessment of the outputs by comparison to independent observations
– Comparison with other GODAE products (i.e. MERSEA collaboration)
– Strong involvement of coastal ocean modeling groups to use and evaluate boundary conditions provided by the global and basin HYCOM real time prediction system outputs
Ivan SimulationIvan Simulation
(G. Halliwell, U. of Miami)(G. Halliwell, U. of Miami)
Blended NOGAPS wind field with HWIND
gridded vector wind fields from NOAA/HRD
West Florida Shelf ModelingWest Florida Shelf Modeling
Barth et al. (USFBarth et al. (USF))
WFS ROMS SST and surface velocity is
shown inside the dashed line and outside of this
area is the North Atlantic HYCOM.
Warm water is detached from the Loop Current
and transported northward as mesoscale
eddies and filaments.
Regional model for South Florida Regional model for South Florida seasseas
SoFLA-HYCOMSoFLA-HYCOM(South Florida Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model)(South Florida Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model)
Nested boundaries
Surface temperature and velocity
Kourafalou et al. (U. of Miami)Kourafalou et al. (U. of Miami)
Nested South Atlantic Bight Nested South Atlantic Bight Finite Element ModelFinite Element Model
Blanton et al. (UNC)Blanton et al. (UNC)
UNC-SAB modeling system sequence that nests the regional-scale QUODDY implementation (middle) within the 1/12° near real-time HYCOM-
GODAE model (left). The limited-area QUODDY implementation (right) includes the estuary and tidal inlets along the Georgia/South Carolina
coast and extends to the shelf-break.
US West Coast HYCOM with Biology US West Coast HYCOM with Biology Nested Nested in 1/12in 1/12°° Global HYCOM Basin Global HYCOM Basin
Kindle et al. (NRL)Kindle et al. (NRL)
Future Directions The 1/12 system is the foundation for the 1/25 global
HYCOM prediction system with tides and wetting and drying This is also the foundation for
Global ensemble nowcasting and forecasting for estimation of
prediction uncertainty Advanced data assimilation
Reanalysis Nested coastal ocean prediction with grid resolution < 1 km Range dependent acoustic prediction Coupled atmosphere – ocean prediction Bio – geo – chemical – optical and tracer/contaminant prediction Ecosystem analysis and prediction
Earth system prediction: coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land
Wetting and Drying Wetting and Drying in HYCOMin HYCOM
Mont Mont St MichelSt Michel
Wetting and Drying Wetting and Drying in HYCOMin HYCOM
0 meter0 meterlayer layer
thicknessthickness
Baraille et Baraille et al. (SHOM)al. (SHOM)
In order to achieve these goalsIn order to achieve these goals
• Continued community involvement to ensure that the numerical codes, data assimilation, framework, etc. are state-of-the-art and to maintain credibility
• Continued availability of a server for easy access to the model outputs and provision of boundary conditions
• Minimum dispersion of efforts among partners and users