paul schultz noaa forecast systems laboratory local analysis and prediction branch
DESCRIPTION
The LAPS “hot start” Initializing mesoscale forecast models with active cloud and precipitation processes. Paul Schultz NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory Local Analysis and Prediction Branch. The LAPS team. John McGinley, branch chief, variational methods - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
January 24, 2005
The LAPS “hot start”Initializing mesoscale forecast models
with active cloud and precipitation processes
Paul SchultzNOAA Forecast Systems LaboratoryLocal Analysis and Prediction Branch
January 24, 2005
The LAPS team
• John McGinley, branch chief, variational methods• Paul Schultz, project manager, modeler, your
speaker today• Brent Shaw, most recent lead modeler• Steve Albers, cloud analysis, temp/wind analysis• Dan Birkenheuer, humidity analysis• John Smart, everything
January 24, 2005
Goals
• Address NWP “spin up” problem– Explicit short-range (0-6 h) QPFs and cloud forecasts
• Focus on a “local” modeling capability– Must be computationally inexpensive– Exploit all locally-available meteorological data– High-resolution grids– Robust data ingest, QC, and fusion
• Develop a flexible solution for easy technology transfer– Hardware/OS independence– Choice of mesoscale model
• Demonstrated in WRF, MM5, RAMS• COAMPS, ARPS, NMM?
January 24, 2005
Basis
• Scale analysis of thermodynamic energy equation appropriate for convective-scale motions strongly suggests latent heat release forces the action
• Put saturated updrafts where they belong• Relax 3-D horizontal divergence to support
updrafts
dt
dq
Tc
L
zw c
p
LAPS Three-Dimensional Cloud Analysis
METARMETAR
METAR
Pilot reports
Doppler radar
Satellites
January 24, 2005
001.ze
0005.001.
ze
00005.
ze
T > -10°C ST SC SC -10°C < T < -20°C AS AS AS
T < -20°C CS CS CI
0005.0
ze
001.0005.
ze 005.001.
ze
005.ze
T > -10°C SC CU CU CU/CB (>5km depth) -10°C < T < -20°C AC AC AC AC
T < -20°C CI CC CC CC
Cloud typing
“stable”
“unstable”
January 24, 2005
Example cloud type analysis
January 24, 2005
Cumulus vertical motions
January 24, 2005
LAPS Dynamic Balance Adjustment
( ) b are background quantities; (^) are solution increments from background; ( )’ are observation differences from background
)ˆ(ˆˆ)ˆˆˆˆˆˆ(ˆ vDufvvvvvvvuvuv ybppbbyybbxxbt
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)ˆˆˆ()ˆ()ˆ(
)ˆ()ˆ()ˆ()ˆ(
BBvBuB
vuvu
OOvvOuuOJ
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cVk j i
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January 24, 2005
LAPS Dynamic Balance Adjustment
FH
FL
0ˆ Tvsv qq
c
January 24, 2005
Results
3D Simulated Clouds
00Hr Fcst, Valid 28 Mar 01/00Z 01Hr Fcst, Valid 28 Mar 01/00Z
January 24, 2005
Example: first forecast hour, 5-min frames
January 24, 2005
MODEL NOISE |dp/dt|
Balanced
Unbalanced
January 24, 2005
Quantitative Assessment
• Comparison of parallel model runs using three kinds of initialization (hot, warm, cold); otherwise identical
• Objective verification of model performance using hot start vs. other initialization methods– Approximately 40 forecast cycles during Jan
2001 – Gridded comparisons using LAPS analysis as
truth– Computed various threat scores, RMSE, etc.
Model Initialization Comparisons
Time-n Time
MM5 Forecast
LAPS Analyses
MM5 Nudging MM5 Forecast
MM5 Forecast
Eta
Eta LBC for all runs
Dynamically balanced,Cloud-consistent LAPS
LAPS II
Cold start
Warm start
Hot start
no LAPS analysis; interpolatefrom larger-scale model
pre-forecast nudging to a series of LAPS analyses; sometimescalled dynamic initialization
diabatic initialization using the balanced LAPS analysis
Results of Initialization Comparisons
ETS for Hourly Snowfall > 0.001 m
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Forecast Hour
ET
S
MM5HOTMM5WARMMM5ETA
Results of Initialization Comparison
ETS for Cloud Cover > 50%
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Forecast Hour
ET
S
MM5HOT
MM5WARM
MM5ETA
January 24, 2005
Example – 21 June 2001/0600 UTC Run
GOES IR+NOWRAD, Valid 21/0600 UTC MM5 00 hr Forecast, Valid 21/0600 UTC
January 24, 2005
Example – 21 June 2001/0600 UTC Run
GOES IR+NOWRAD, Valid 21/0700 UTC MM5 01 hr Forecast, Valid 21/0700 UTC
January 24, 2005
Example – 21 June 2001/0600 UTC Run
GOES IR+NOWRAD, Valid 21/0800 UTC MM5 02 hr Forecast, Valid 21/0800 UTC
January 24, 2005
Example – 21 June 2001/0600 UTC Run
GOES IR+NOWRAD, Valid 21/0900 UTC MM5 03 hr Forecast, Valid 21/0900 UTC
January 24, 2005
Example – 21 June 2001/0600 UTC Run
GOES IR+NOWRAD, Valid 21/1000 UTC MM5 04 hr Forecast, Valid 21/1000 UTC
January 24, 2005
Example – 21 June 2001/0600 UTC Run
GOES IR+NOWRAD, Valid 21/1100 UTC MM5 05 hr Forecast, Valid 21/1100 UTC