Monitoring and Early Warning Systems for Natural Disasters

A. Annunziato

RESEARCH COOPERATION BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE AND PORTUGAL

29 NOVEMBER 2012Pavilhão do Conhecimento

Lisbon, Portugal

•

Carry out ICT focused Scientific Research and Technological Innovation:

•

Techniques for automatic information mining and analysis from relevant sources e.g. Web, Remotely sensed (e.g. satellite sensors)and Trade/Customs data

•

integrated systems/tools to support capabilities for: risk analysis, threat analysis, situational awareness, early warning, collaborative decision-making

•

European Crisis Management Laboratory

R&D Activities by JRC Crisis management Unit (Institute of Protection and Security of the

Citizens)

Inhauguration 16 Mar 2012 – Visit of Pres. M. Barroso

European Crisis Management Laboratory Objectives• Analysis of ongoing disaster events

• Earthquakes, Tropical Cyclones, Tsunamis, Floods, Volcanoes• Creation of reports for Decision Makers in European Commission (MIC)

• Research on ICT Technologies to support Crisis Room functionalities• Benchmarking software Tools (technological workshops)• Testing in-house software • Situation Awareness, Early Warning, Command and Control

• Training and Capacity Building Activities • Specific trainings: best use of Crisis Room Technologies • GIS Systems and Crisis Rooms • Tsunami Decision Support Systems for Early Warning Centers

• Backup for EC Crisis Rooms • ECHO MIC • DG-HOME

• Crisis Room Design • JRC Crisis Room• Haiti Civil Protection• DG-ECHO Emergency Response Service (MIC)

Analysis of ongoing events

Analysis

of

Tohoku Earthquake

and

Tsunami March 2011

Analysis

of

ISAAC Tropical

Cyclone,

September

2012

29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

Alessandro29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

11 Mar 2011

Start

Show text also for non-Tsunami cases

0.1 Delay

6.5 Minimum Magnitude (Mw)

29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

9 min

Orange Tsunami Alert Japan –2.1 m wave –GDACS

29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

10 min

Will the earthqua ke lead to a tsunami?

What is the likely damage? ?

Will the tsunami

be a disaster

?

Is it a disaster? ?

time

Which location will be

affected ? And when

?

29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

…Earthquake offsho Japan, Mag.. 7.9

…Earthquake offsho Japan, Mag.. 7.9

10 min

Will the earthqua ke lead to a tsunami?

What is the likely damage? ?

Will the tsunami

be a disaster

?

Is it a disaster? ?

time

Which location will be

affected ? And when

?

GDACS Automatic 

estimation

Manual Decision Support Tool 

(TAT)

Is this estimate 

correct ?

29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

15 min

What are the needs??

What is the damage? ?

Who will respond

??

Is it a disaster? ?

How many

people? ?

What is offered??

time

What is needed now??

The area with large Impact is 

much wider than initially 

estimated, at least  Mw> 8

The area with large Impact is 

much wider than initially 

estimated, at least  Mw> 8

Calculated

Calculated x14

35 minAutomati

c

Manual

29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

41 min

Extent of inundation ?Potential Impact ?Other affected countries in the Pacific Ocean ?

8. 4 8. 4

Magnitude updated to 8.4RED Tsunami Alert Japan –11. m wave –GDACS

How the estimat ed sea level changes ?

tim e

Other locations affected

? And when ? What is

the likely damage ??

Which areas

can be inundat

ed?

Is it a disaster ??

29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

3 h

Large inundation in the area of Sendai

Large inundation in the area of Sendai

Highest sea level in the Northern part Highest sea level in the Northern part

Maps and Reports for  ECHO‐MIC and the GDACS 

Users Community 

Not large problems to other Pacific countries

Not large problems to other Pacific countries

29 NOV 2012 - LISBON

GLOBAL DISASTERS ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

…Earthquake offshore Japan, Mag.. 7.9

4 h

8. 4 8. 48.8 →

9 0 8.8 →

9 0

Further increase of the magnitude, estimate 12 m→14 m

Will the earthqu ake lead to a tsunami ?

tim e

Which location will be

affected ? And

when ?What is the likely damage ??

Will the tsunam

i be a disaste

r?

Is it a disaster ??

• Early warning does not only means alerting before an event happens, which often is impossible. More and more it means sudden alerting for a quick recovery

• The period after an event and before the arrival of the first relief organizations is the one in which • Other human lives may be lost• The risk for secondary effects (epidemics) is high• It is felt by survivors as highly dangerous

Event Alerting Relieforganization

Help andRescue

Early Warning Systems

•Why early and how much early ?•Phenomena dependency

• Earthquakes• Tsunamis• Tropical Cyclones• Volcanoes

•Disaster scale• Local, National or

International•Information flow

• From headquarters to the single people on the beach

EarthquakesTsunamisTropical CyclonesVolcanoes

Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System

Current emergencies

Coordination with UN- OCHA

Simple color coding

Drill down information

GDACS Architecture & functions

USGS

EMSC

GIS analyses

Geo

Layers

Tsunami travel

time

Tsunami propagation

Tsunami inundation

JRC Tsunami Calculation

System

Analysis & Alerting

EMAIL SMS FAXGeofon

IM

Issue: improvements in time detection

• Improvement in the data availability through agreements with data providers

Scraping agencies:JMA, JapanINGV, ItalyBMG, Indonesia

Push mechanism agreements:USGSEMSCGEOFONIPMA PortugalNOA GreeceKOERI Turkey

Earthquakes

• Earthquakes• - impact model based on evaluation of the • Alert Score = Fvulnerability * FPopulation density * F Magnitude

M 6.7

M 6.0

Information needs after an event

Info & Data

TimeDisaster

Need

for information

Information available

T. Peter, OCHA- 2010

Area for

EWS

Tsunamis

JRC Tsunami Calculations

• Scenario Calculations• Grid scenario with 136000 calculations for the

whole world. They are used to establish the GDACS alert level (>1 m Orange, >3m Red)

• Online Calculations• Performed on request of automatic systems or

manually from the Decision Support System (TAT)

• Fault Mechanisms calculations• Auto-initialization when a new fault mechanism

is published and launched via the Online Calculations system

JRC Global Scenario Database

10184 data points

in a grid

of

0.5 degrees

JRC scenario MatrixCalculations between 6.5 and 9.5 (every 0.25) have been performed.

Historical events

Grid points

Mediterranean

area

Tsunami Scenario Database for

NEAMTWS area

Back

Online Calculations

•

3 steps of calculations:•

Oceanwide

•

1 min bathymetry•

0.25 min bathymetry

Automatic calculation from input generation to propagation and inundation

Support to countries for the TWS

• JRC is currently supporting a number of countries in the development and operation of their Tsunami Warning System through dedicated Collaboration Agreements (CAs)• Portugal• Turkey• Greece• Italy• Romania

• Interest expressed but not yet finalized by• Spain• Maroc• Egypt

Istanbul, KOERI

Athens, NOA

Architecture of Portugal EWS

Tsunami Analysis Tool

JRC Grid Database

(4 TB)

Tsunami Analysis Tool

Access online Worldwide

Calculations

Collection & storage server

Execution servers

JRC Tsunami Calculation

System

GDACS

IPMA (PT)TAT

EMSCGEOFON

USGS

* planned

NOA (GR)KOERI (TR)

Time of the event

Current time

Grid calculation

Online Calculation

Elapsed time from event

Buoys water level

Locations of simulated tsunami wave heights

On line events Analysis

Alerting Msg Generation3

21

49 DART buoys250 tidal measurem.

It is very important to get agreement with as much as possible sea level data providers in order to reduce the delay

Example Cascais data: Constant delay from data provider 3 minutesMinimum delay from GLOSS data 7 minutes, updated every hour

Support to NEAMWAVE12 Exercise

The Tsunami alerting Device

• Till now JRC work was only dedicated to alert individuals on their request or specific institutions (i.e. UN-OCHA, EU DG-ENV MIC)

• JRC designed a device that should be used to alert people on the beach and should therefore be used to disseminate warnings

• The Tsunami Alerting Device (TAD) is completely integrated in the rest of the JRC tools and gets benefits from them

Tsunami Alerting Device

Earthquake Seismological Organizations

Data Analysis at JRC (GDACS)

Tsunami analysis

Identification of possible affected locations

Tsunami Alert !Go to elevated area

Wave arriving in 35min SMS

GPS antenn

Siren

TAD Installation in Portugal

• Installation in Portugal (Setubal)

• Development and testing of new features for the TAD• Iridium connection• Active data transmission• Radio repetition of alerting

signals

• Fruitful collaboration between IM, Univ. Lisbon and local Municipality of Setubal

Setubal

20 April, Installation in Setubal

TAD Installation in Setubal

Activity is ongoing in collaboration with the Setubal Port Authority, to connect the TAD with a sea level measurement

Time available for alerting

6 km7 min

Typical installation possibilities

GSMSatCom

Isolated installation with SatCom connection

Master/Slave installation for multiple devices via GSM, LAN or satCom network (master) and via radio connection (slaves)

Conclusions

• Collaboration with Portugal organizations will continue• Renewal of Collaboration Agreement with IPMA

on Tsunami Early Warning Systems is ongoing• Setubal installation experiment • Communication exercise including TAD in

Setubal and Portuguese Civil Protection• Collaboration with Lisbon University for

Tsunami modelling

• Trainee post open now to work on Tsunami Modelling and Early Warning.

Trainee

DEADLINE: 19/12/2012

Obrigado por sua atenção

Alessandro Annunziato