module 4_climate change 1
TRANSCRIPT
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASAPAGASA
Topic 1: Overview on Climate Change
& Climate Trends in Philippines
Presented by:Thelma A. Cinco
Presented at Training of Trainers on DRR/CCA for local Partners (DRR/CCA ToT), January 9, 2013
Assistant Weather Services Chief, CAD, PAGASA/DOST
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Topic 1 - Climate Change: Causes and
Effects
Weather and climate distinguished
Climate Change, Global Warming, and Global
Change Defined
Causes of Climate Change
The greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases and Sources
Natural and man made causes
Climate trends in the Philippines
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Weather is what you getWeather is the present condition of the atmosphere
or it is a day-to-day conditions of the atmosphere at
a particular place and time
Climate is what you expectClimate is the average of weather for a particular area
a over a period of time ranging from months to
decade, thousands or millions of years.
Weather vs. Climate
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Climate
Climate is what youexpect
Weather is what you
get Characterized by
variability andextremes
A resource
A hazard
Image from the EUMETSAT / IODC programme, Meteosat-5 19/03/2006Colour composite image provided by Meteo-France
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Climate change
Refers to any distinctchange in measures of
climate lasting for a long period of time.
Means major changes in temperature, rainfall,
snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or
longer
Both human-made and natural factors
contribute to climate change
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Global warming
An average increase in temperatures near the
Earths surface and in the lowest layer of the
atmosphere
Increases in temperatures in our Earths
atmosphere can contribute to changes in
global climate patterns
Considered part of climate change along withchanges in precipitation, sea level, etc.
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Climate variability refers to shorter term
fluctuations in climate such as those caused by
the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Phenomenon.
What is Climate variability?
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We see the sum ofboth
Climate variability(e.g. Natural swings)
Climate change
(e.g. warming trend)
Time (years)
"climate"
Climate Change v. Climate Variability
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Atmosphere + Hydrosphere + Cryosphere + Lithosphere + Biosphere
+ Forcings
Major Elements of the climatic System
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Causes of climate change
GHGs
Aerosols
Landuse
Human factorsNatural factors
Solar
Natural
variability
Volcano
What causes climate change?
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A diagram of the natural greenhouse effect on earth,where the Earth's temperature is kept constant to
support life.
A diagram showing how additional greenhouse gases
trap more heat in the Earths atmosphere and raises
the temperature.
What is Green house Effect?
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Example of the Greenhouse Effect
The Suns energy
passes through the
cars windshield.This energy (heat) is
trapped inside the carand cannot pass back
through the
windshield, causing
the inside of the car towarm up.
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Natural sources
Soils (biological processes)
Ocean
Human-induced
Burning of fossil fuels
Transport
industries
Land-use changes
Carbon dioxide
What are the human activities that cause
increases in the concentrations of the
greenhouse gases?
Natural sources
Tropical soils (wet forests)
Ocean
Human-induced
Nitrogen-based
fertilizers and chemicals
Industrial sources
Nitrous oxides
Nitrous oxides
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Human-induced
Coolants
Sealants
insulations
HydrofluorocarbonsNatural sources
none
Hydrofluorocarbon
Natural sources
Wetlands
Termites
Ocean
Human-induced
Flooded rice agriculture
Livestock production
Waste managementsystem (landfills, etc.)
Methane
Methane
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Carbon dioxide: +31% Methane: +151%
Nitrous oxide: +17%
Thickening blanket
Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the
atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse effect
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Current GHG Concentration
(IPCC 2007)
Since 2004 were already
trekking above the IPCC worst-
case emission scenario
(UNEP 2009)
Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the
atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse effect
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CLIMATE CHANGE = CHANGE IN CLIMATE
Climate change is the long term shift or alteration in the climate of a
specific location or region. Climate change is attributed to the dramatic increase in green
house gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere, trapping heat andcreating the greenhouse effect or global warming
CLIMATE CHANGE
Change in climate patterns
such as rainfall, wind patterns
Increase in Green House Gases (GHG)
ENHANCE GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
Increase in Global Temperature
GLOBAL WARMING
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What are the future risk
under a changing
Climate?
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Risks of future climate change
Possible threats: Ecosystem
change
Flooding of
coastalcommunities
Spread ofdiseases
Increase of
extremeweather events
Source: IPCC 2001a
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Whats the proof that
global warming istaking place?
Source: Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Map_jpg
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Observed Global mean temperature
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
Period Rate
Years /decade
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
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How vulnerable is thePhilippines?
Th t f h d i th Ph
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In the recent World Risk Index report released in August 2011
the Philippines ranks 3rd in the list of countries most
vulnerable to climate change.
According to any criteria, the Philippines is an extremely
dangerous place to inhabit. One of the most comprehensiverecords on the occurrence of recent natural hazards even
advised that the archipelago has experienced more disasters
than any other country in the world since 1900.
- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Louvain, Universit
Catholique de Brussels (hereafter CRED) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database.
The nature of hazards in the Ph
Hi hl S t bl t
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Highly Suceptable to
Floodings and Inundation
Archipelago, composedof low lying small
islands
70% of cities andmunicipalities are
coastal areas
Highly susceptible toflooding and stormsurges
Wh i th Phili i t fl di ?
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Why is the Philippines prone to flooding?
Meteoro logical factors: The climate of the PH is
influenced by the complexinteractions of various
factors such as :
Philippine Geography
and Topography
Linear systems Principal Air Streams
Semi-permanentcyclones and anti-cyclones
Tropical Cyclones
Ocean currents
Heavier precipitation Total Damage = PhP11 1 B ~ (USD234 M)
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DOSTPAGASA -
Heavier precipitation Total Damage = PhP11.1 B ~ (USD234 M)
Espinueva & Nilo, 2009
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DeadAffected
populationTotal
Damage
734 2.0M P5.5B
Typhoon Reming (DURIAN)
29 November 2006 in Albay
DeadAffected
population
Total
Damage
184 4.0M P6.4B
Typhoon Milenyo (XANGSANE)
28 September 2006 in MM
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D i St & T h I t i f ll t
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PANAON ISLAND
FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2003
ORMOC FLASHFLOOD
November 1991
INFANTA & AURORA
FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2004
Damaging Storms & Typhoons, Intense rainfall events
Habagat A g st 2012
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Normal RR for
August 504.2 mm
Percent
Normal
Total August 1-8 1199.1 mm 237.8 %
6 August 323.4 mm 64.1 %
7 August 391.7 mm 77.6 %
8 August 292.6 mm 58.03%
Total 2day RR
(Aug 6-7) 741.8 mm 141.8%
Total 3day RR
(Aug 6-8) 1007.4 mm 199.8%
Duration of continuous rainfall from July 16 to date = 24 days`
Habagat August 2012
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How is global warming
manifested in thePhilippines?
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Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010)
Departures from 1971-2000 normal values
An increase of0.65C from 1951-2010 (60 years)
Philippines mean temperature
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Difference(C)from1
971-2000)
Year
Annual mean temp
Smoothed series (5 year running mean)
Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST
Period Rate
1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) - 0.01641951-2010 (60 years) - 0.0108
Years C/year
Maximum & Minimum Temperature
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Rate of increase almost 3times higher compared with
the maximum temperature
Maximum & Minimum Temperature
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines
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Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the PhilippinesPeriod: (1951 2008)
Trend in the frequencyof days with maximumtemperature above the1961-1990 mean 99thpercentile
(Hot days).
Trend in thefrequency withminimum temperatureabove the 1961-1990mean 99th percentile
(Warm nights)
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines
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e ds t e e a y e pe atu es t e pp esPeriod: (1951 2008)
Trend in the frequencywith maximumtemperature below the1961-1990 mean 1stpercentile
Cool Days
Trend in the frequencywith minimumtemperature below the1961-1990 mean 1stpercentile
Cold nights
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Classification of Tropical Cyclones
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Classification of Tropical Cyclones
1. Tropical depression - maximum sustainedwinds is from 45 to63 kph;
2. Tropical Storm - maximum sustained windsis from64 to 118kph;
3. Typhoon maximum sustained winds is
greater than 118kph.
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Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the WesternNorth Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TCand 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Areaof Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set).
s.Tropical Cyclone Frequency
using 1x1 (1948-2010)
s.Visited by an average19 to 20 Tropical cyclonesEVERY YEAR
Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the WesternNorth PacificPeriod: (1948-2010)
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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the PhilippinesPeriod: 1948-2010
y = -0.0223x + 20.124
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
NumberofTropicalCyclones
Year
Number of Tropical Cyclones
Five-year running mean
Linear (Five-year runningmean)
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines
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p y ppwith maximum sustained winds of150 kph and above
9, 1987
(10), 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
FrequencyofTC
Year
Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)Period: 1971-2010
Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCs
Neutral year
El Nio year
La Nia year
Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing
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y q y g gthe Philippines Period: 1948-2010
17 13 9 1134
48
126 130111
71
4436
10 69 18
30
46
80 67
77
88
87
47
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NumberofTr
opicalCyclones
Number of Landfalling TC's
Number of non-Landfalling TC's
Monthly
Mean 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.4
Tropical cyclone statistics in PH
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Tropical cyclone statistics in PHDISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010
TC NAME Date of OccurrenceTotal damage
in Billion PhP
TY_PEPENG (Parma) Sep 30 - Oct 10 2009 27.296722
TY PEDRING SEP 24- 28, 2011 15.552000
TY FRANK (Fengshen) Jun 18 23, 2008 13.500000
TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 21, 2010 11.500000
TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) Sep 24 27, 2009 10.952198
TY_RUPING NOV 8-14, 1990 10.846000
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONENumber of Casualties > 300
TC NAME Date of OccurrenceCasualti
es
TS Uring * Nov 1-6, 1991 5101TS Sendong (Washi) * Dec 15-17, 2011 1268
TY Nitang Aug 31 Sep 4, 1984 1029
TY Trix Oct 17-23, 1952 995
TY Amy Dec 6-11, 1951 991
TY Rosing Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995 936
MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC
TC NAMEMaximum Wind
(kph)
Date of
Occurrence
TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006
TY Loleng 287 (Virac) Oct 21, 1998
TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981
TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970
TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974
TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987
MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC
TC NAMEMaximum 24-hour
rainfall (mm)
Date of
Occurrence
TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001
TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998
TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967
TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974
TY Trining 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991
TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio) May 15, 1980
*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong werecharacterized by flashfloods.
Increasing cost of Damage
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V l bilit t E t W th E t
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GUINSAUGON LANDSLIDE
The whole island of Leyte experienced more than 300% of normal rainfall in February 17, 2006
Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events
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Observed24-hour rainfall 455mm
TS Sendong Dec. 15 to 17, 2011
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g ,
These extreme weather events have one thing in commonpersistent torrential rains, causing landslides and flash floods, killingpeople and destroying properties along its path.
Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the
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Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in thePhilippines Period: (1951 2008)
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El Nio Southern Oscillation(ENSO)
Natural Climate Variability
Warm waterbuilds up in the
Warm water heats the
t h th i
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Strong er Easterly Wind
builds up in the
Western Pacific
Warm
poolEast
Eq
L
atmosphere, the air
rises, and low-level
trade winds converge
toward the warm
water. Subsiding air
occurs in the eastern
Pacific basin
.
Weaker than normal
Easterly Wind East Eq
Reduced
Rainfall EnhancedRainfall
Stronger than
normal Easterly
Wind
Enhanced
rainfall
West East Eq
Convection shifts eastward over the central
and/or eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection
becomes suppressed over the far western
Pacific/ Indonesia/ Philippines
Convection becomes stronger over the far western Pacific
Ocean/ Indonesia and more suppressed in the central Pacific.
ReducedRainfall
Low
Pressure
Low
Pressure High
Pressure
High
Pressure
El Nio La Nia
IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASAPAGASARED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINAyears and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years
Legend:
Severe drought
impactsDrought impactswith major losses
Moderate droughtimpacts
Near normal toabove normalcondition
Way abovenormal condition
Potential forflood damage
Severe flooddamage
Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution
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Neutral La NiaEl Nio
Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type
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J AN FEB M AR APR M AY J UN J UL AUG SEP OCT NOV D EC
NORMAL 7100 80.2 54.5 41.6 48.6 70.5 122.5 116.3 110.1 141.5 168.5 142.6 103.6
Neutral 84.8 64.5 60.2 35.6 70.0 135.8 136.1 94.5 112.7 152.7 148.2 120.7
EL NINO 43.0 24.2 13.9 17.8 50.2 103.1 122.3 122.2 104.1 136.8 109.1 83.4
LA NNA 114.9 80.8 66.4 91.9 125.6 164.6 134.0 137.2 177.9 206.6 214.4 136.2
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
RainfallAmount(mm)
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Dumaguete (Type III)
J AN F EB M AR AP R M AY J UN J UL AUG S EP O CT NOV DEC
NORMAL 7100 12.1 11.7 29.3 92.3 354.7 436.4 838.4 911.8 581.0 461.8 124.6 23.7
Neutral 16.1 14.6 40.3 99.9 354.4 459.6 777.1 907.4 639.6 258.1 162.6 20.1
El nio 10.2 6.6 16.1 46.4 265.2 489.41025.7847.0 567.7 364.3 64.0 24.0
La Nia 13.6 26.6 45.4 126.8 373.8 460.9 476.4 819.1 537.2 603.2 157.8 37.8
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
RainfallAm
ount(mm)
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Baguio City(Type I)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
NORMAL 7100 321.9 209.8 185.0 163.0 169.9 259.8 279.0 236.1 261.6 353.8 486.3 563.1
Neutral 285.2 187.2 191.7 142.4 184.2 248.4 251.2 252.4 283.5 375.9 426.4 422.0
El nio 245.4 119.3 122.2 105.4 126.9 223.2 284.8 252.3 252.5 226.2 420.1 419.4
La Nia 407.2 290.7 267.7 235.8 212.1 225.0 229.2 253.5 233.2 351.7 578.8 714.8
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
RainfallAmount(mm)
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Legazpi City Type II
J AN F EB MAR APR M AY J UN J UL AUG S EP O CT NO V DE C
NORMAL 7100 124.8 99.8 92.3 141.1 176.5 207.7 148.1 181.0 184.3 178.3 135.3 103.5
Neutral 135.3 123.5 99.6 134.1 184.1 182.4 171.3 164.0 161.0 169.1 153.7 124.1
El nio 87.0 67.2 45.4 80.7 203.2 220.9 155.2 155.3 171.7 182.0 133.2 79.3
La Nia 153.1 109.1 120.7 166.3 186.7 177.9 182.6 197.6 201.5 165.5 135.0 132.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
RainfallAmount(mm)
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Davao City (Type IV)
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JAN FEB MA R A PR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JA N FEB MAR A PR MA Y J UN JUL A UG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Normal 1971-2000 93.7 59.2 52.1 45.8 84.1 207. 212. 192. 200. 189. 131. 99.9 93.7 59.2 52.1 45.8 84.1 207. 212. 192. 200. 189. 131. 99.9
Nuetral 92.6 68.3 58.4 40.7 106. 196. 215. 199. 190. 189. 142. 103. 92.6 68.3 58.4 40.7 106. 196. 215. 199. 190. 189. 142. 103.
El ni0 91.0 41.8 222. 177. 205. 176. 129. 77.5 61.1 27.2 30.8 10.4 7.61 37.3 166. 248. 173. 61.1 124. 122. 76.2
La nia 39.6 127. 236. 198. 215. 281. 196. 188. 136. 156. 107. 66.9 52.4 119. 220. 219. 199. 248. 228. 144. 140.
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
RainfallAm
ount(mm)
Mean Monthly Rainfall(mm) for Cagayan de Oro
Second yearFirst year
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Responses to
Climate Change
57
I fl f Cli t Ch
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Influence of Climate Change on
Hazard Occurrences
Temperatures are rising
Precipitation patterns are changing
- Shift in where and how precipitation falls
- Changes in flood frequency and severity- Changes in drought frequency and duration
Increasing numbers of severe weather-related
disasters in recent years
Responses to Climate Change
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59
MitigationMeasures to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks
of greenhouse gases.
Adaptation:measures to minimizevulnerability, risk and impacts to
climate change.
Practical steps to protectcountries and communities fromthe likely disruption and damagethat will result from effects of
climate change.
Responses to Climate Change
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Climate ChangeMitigation
Mitigation Actions
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA
Improve technology
Change behavior and lifestyleUse instruments
Regulations and standards
Mitigation Actions
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASAPAGASA
MITIGATION
What should we do?
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA
Waste disposal segregation may help instead
Costless, only discipline is needed
Plant trees.
What should we do?
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA
Climate ChangeAdaptation
CC adaptation requires an understanding
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA
CC adaptation requires an understanding
of vulnerabilities and impacts
65
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASAPAGASA
STRATEGIES/MEASURES
DEVELOP EFFECTIVE EARLY WARNING
& DISASTER RESPONSE SYSTEMS TO
FOREWARN COMMUNITIES OF DANGERS
ADAPTATION MEASURES
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASAPAGASA
ENHANCE LGU CAPABILITIES FOR
DISASTER PREVENTION & MANAGEMENT
Integrat ing Flood Disaster Risk Reduc t ion and
Adaptat ion in Lo cal Developm ent Planning
and Decis ion-making Processes
STRATEGIES/MEASURES
ADAPTATION MEASURES
Hydromet Hazard and its impacts
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Hydromet Hazard and its impacts
Tropical CyclonesDamage and losses are due to:
- severe winds
- heavy /prolonged rainfall flooding/landslide/mudflow
- storm surge
- Tornado
T i l C l H d d i i
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Tropical Cyclone Hazards and its impacts
Strong Winds
Storm Surge
Flooding due to heavy rainfall
Landslide/Mudflow
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASAPAGASA
Climate Products for Risk Management and
Adaptation Planning
Season to yearNext hour
to 10 daysDecade
Long term
climate change
Short to medium
term weather
forecasts
Seasonal to
inter-annual
climate
forecasts
Decadal
climate trend
analysis
Short-term
planning
Emergency
Preparedness
Long-term
strategic planningNew
tecnologies such
drought/flood
resistant crops
Climate
change
scenarios
Decision-making Timelines
Medium term to
Long-termstrategic planning
Infrastructures
planning,
retrofitting
Medium-term
operationalplanning
Risk
assessment and
management
Climate
normals/trends
Daily weather
forecast
Weekly forecast Climate Change
projections
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PAGASAPAGASA PAGASA
Current initiatives on DRR&CCA
Enhancement of early warning systems:additional monitoring stations, remote sensing data application
in DRR
Hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping:
update of hazard maps (Hydromet Flood, StormSurge,Severe Winds)
Improved awareness of natural hazards and their
impacts at the local level
Provision of Climate Change Projection in thePhilippines for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)
PAGASAs Response Activities
h f d f ll d / bl h f
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Enhancement of
Observing systems and
monitoring facilities for
early warning system
Upgrading of surveillance radars/ Establishment of
Doppler Radar
Upgrading of Satellite Facilities (NOAA, MTSAT)
Acquisition of MODIS Satelite
Upgrading of Upper Air Stations
Buoys, wind profilers, AWS
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Science can provide
knowledge
We all have to provide
the solutions.