module 4_climate change 2
TRANSCRIPT
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Topic 2: Climate Projections
in the Philippines
Presented by:Thelma A. Cinco
Presented at Training of Trainers on DRR/CCA for local Partners (DRR/CCA ToT), January 9, 2013
Assistant Weather Services Chief, CAD, PAGASA/DOST
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Source: Paul Chan, IMSG
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Climate Prediction Framework
ForecastLeadTime
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Watches
Forecasts
Threats
Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Predictio
n
Applications
Tra
nsportation
P
rotectionof
Life&Property
Space
Applications
Recreation
Ecosystem
State/Local
Planning
Environment
Water
M
anagement
Agriculture
WaterResource
Planning
Energy
Commerce
Hydropower
FireWeather
Health
Forecast
Uncerta inty
Initial
Conditions
Boundary
Conditions
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Weeks
Months
Seasons
Years
Weather
Climate Variabil i ty
Scenarios
Anthropogenic
Forcing
Climate Change.
Adapted from: NOAA
Decades
Centuries
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Climatic conditions that are representative of
thepresent day or recent climatic trends for a
given period of time in a specific geographicarea. It describes average conditions.
(Observed Data or control period).
Example: period :1961-1990
1971-2000
Definition of terms
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Defining the Baseline
Two important roles in climate scenarioconstruction:
o serves as a reference period from whichestimated future change in climate iscalculated.
o used to define the observed present dayclimate with which climate change scenarioinformation is usually combined.
Definition of terms
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In general usage, it can be regarded as
any description of the future and the
pathway leading to it.However, a more specific interpretation has
been attached to the term "climate
projection"by the IPCC when referring to
model-derived estimates of future climate.
Definition of terms
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Climateprediction/forecast Climate projection
Definition of terms
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What are emission
scenarios?
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What is Climate Change Scenarios?
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Based on different plausiblepathways of future:
Development of the world
Population growth and
consumption patterns
Standards and life sTyphoonle ofliving
Energy consumption & energysources (e.g. fossil fuel usage)
Technology change
Land use change
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Storyline DescriptionA1 Very rapid economic growth; population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and
economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate. Subdivisions:A1FIreliance on fossil fuels; A1Treliance on non-fossil fuels; A1Ba balance
across all fuel sources
A2 Self-reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population;economic growth on regional scales
B1 Clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions toeconomic, social and environmental sustainability; improved equity; population peaks
mid-centuryB2 Local solutions to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower rate
than in A2; less rapid technological change than in B1 and A1
The SRES Scenarios
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What are climate
models?
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Climate Models
1A.15
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Prepared by Elaine Barrow,CCIS Project
300km
50km
10km
1m
PointGlobal Climate Models supply...
Impact models require ...
Because there is a mismatch of scales between what climate models can
supply and what environmental impact models require.
What is downscaling and why do we need to
downscale?
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PRECIS stands for "Providing REgional
Climates forImpacts Studies."
PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional
climate modelling system.
PRECIS was developed in order to help generatehigh-resolution climate change information for as
many regions of the world as possible.
freely available to groups of developing countries inorder that they may develop climate change scenarios
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PRECIS resolution
0.44 x 0.44
HadCM3 resolution
2.5 x 3.75
GCM versus RCM
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Representation of the Philippines in different
model resolution
25 km 50 km 300 km
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Developing Climate
Projection for thePhilippines
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Global Model Used
United Kingdom model : HadCM3Q0resolution 2.5 x 3.75 downscaled to 0.22 x 0.22(25 km x 25 km)
A1B Medium-range emission scenario
German model ECHAM4
Resolution 2.8 x 2.8 downscaled to 0.22 x 0.22(25 km x 25 km)
A2 - High-range emission scenario
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PRECIS SIMULATION RUN IN PAGASA
Validation of the Observed and Simulated Seasonal
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Validation of the Observed and Simulated Seasonal
Mean (JJA) Rainfall (1971-2000)
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Validation of Results:
Validation of Observed and Simulated Baseline
Rainfall and Mean Temperature (1971 - 2000)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Months
Rainfall(MM)
15.00
17.00
19.00
21.00
23.0025.00
27.00
29.00
31.00
33.00
35.00
MeanTemperature(oC)
Observed Rainfall 1971 - 2000 Simulated by Model Rainfall 1971 - 2000
Observed Mean Temperature 1971 - 2000 Simulated by Model Mean Temperature 1971 - 2000
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Climate Projection for
the Philippines(2020,2050 & 2100)
Projected Change in annual mean temperature
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Projected Change in annual mean temperature
Medium-range Emission A1B Scenario
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Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature
Key Findings
SEASONMedium-range Emission
Scenario
2020 2050
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 0.8 to 1.0 1.6 to 2.2
Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 0.9 to 1.3 2.0 to 2.5
Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) 0.8 to 1.3 1.6 to 2.6
Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) 0.8 to 1.1 1.5 to 2.2
Warm months
becoming hotter
Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature
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Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature
Medium -range Scenario(A1B) for 2020 (black) and 2050 (red)
Season 2020 2050
DJF 0.8 to 1.0 1.6 to 2.2
MAM 0.8 to 1.3 2.0 to 2.5
JJA 0.8 to 1.3 1.6 to 2.6
SON 0.8 to 1.1 1.5 to 2.2
Greatest increase
2050
JJA VALUE
Surigao del
Norte 2.6
Agusan del
Norte 2.5
2020
MAM VALUE
Iloilo 1.3
North Cotabato 1.3
L
U
Z
V
I
S
M
I
N
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Example: How to use
Ilocos Norte DJF(2020) = 25.3 + 0.8 = 26.1
PROVINCES BASELINE OBSERVED
HIGH-RANGE EMISSION
SCENARIO
MEDIUM-RANGE
EMISSION SCENARIO
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
Region 1
ILOCOS NORTE 25.3 28.1 28.3 27.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9
ILOCOS SUR 23.1 25.7 25.4 24.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0
LA UNION 20.5 22.9 22.8 22.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.0
PANGASINAN 25.0 27.4 26.9 26.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0
Projected mean temperature increase (inC)
under high-range and medium-range emission scenarios in 2020
and observed baseline (1971-2000 )
Projected seasonal mean temperature (DJF) for Ilocos Norte in 2020 under a
medium range emission scenario is computed as:
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Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)
Dry seasons
becoming drier.
Wet seasons
becoming wetter.
Medium-range Emission Scenario
2020 2050
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.1 to-25.1-%
Mar-Apr-May (MAM) -0.2 to -33.3% -1.4 to -39.8%
Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) -0.4 to 43.1% -0.7 to 72.5%
Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) -0.4 to 30.0% -0.5 to 39.0%
Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall
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Projected Change (%)
Season 2020 2050
DJF -26 to 54 -53.2 to 6
MAM -33 to 6 -23.2 to 18
JJA -9.3 to 36 -7.8 to 28.2
SON -6.0 to 23 -34.2 to 8.1
RAINFALL
2020
REDUCTION(%) INCREASE (%)
MAM DJF
NCR -33.3
PANGASINA
N 54.3
LAGUNA -31.5 ZAMBALES 34.2
RIZAL -30.7 JJA
ILOCOS SUR 36.3
2050
REDUCTION(%) INCREASE (%)
MAM JJA
RIZAL -39.8 ILOCOS SUR 58.1
NCR -38.5 BENGUET 63.1
AGUSAN
DEL NORTE -36.5
NUEVA
VIZCAYA 36.1
Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall
Medium -range Scenario for 2020 (black) and 2050 (red)
L
U
Z
V
I
S
M
I
N
Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission
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0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
RainfallAmount(mm)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Davao
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
RainfallAmount(mm)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Hinatuan
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
RainfallAmount(mm)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Casiguran
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
RainfallAmount(mm)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Dumaguete
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
RainfallAmount(mm)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Baguio
OBS
2020
2050
Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission
scenario (A1B) By Climate Typhoonpe
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
RainfallAmount(mm)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0Iloilo
OBS
2020
2050
Manila
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Manila
An increase of2.21 C from 1901-2010 (110 years)
y = 0.0201x + 26.513
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
MeanTemperature(C)
YEAR
Annual Mean Temperature (C)Manila (1901 - 2010)
Annual Mean Temperature
5-year moving average
Linear (5-year moving average)
Manila
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Manila
1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010
Manila 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.3
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
TempearutreC
Comparison of the 30-years average of
MeanTemperature for Manila
Manila
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Manila
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
RainfallAmount(mm)
Rainfall Anomaly in ManilaPeriod: 1865-2010 (depature from 1971 to 2000 normal values)
Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)
5 yr moving ave
Linear (5 yr moving ave)
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Manila
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009
Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
NORMAL 7100 19.0 7.9 11.1 21.4 165.2 265.0 423.2 486.0 330.7 270.9 129.6 75.3
Nuetral 14.1 9.1 14.4 19.8 152.8 265.5 382.0 494.7 335.3 223.7 111.5 56.6
EL NINO 15.4 5.8 4.4 5.3 101.5 226.5 576.1 429.8 375.9 169.7 89.3 47.8
LA NNA 21.8 13.8 15.8 39.1 187.1 313.4 293.3 430.6 389.4 276.7 175.4 89.2
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
RainfallA
mount(mm)
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Manila
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Climate Change Projection for Manila
Climate Change Projection for Port Area, Manila
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0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
RainfallAmount
(mm)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B)
PortArea (Manila)
OBS
2020
2050
Climate Change Projection for Port Area, Manila
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Climate Projection forCagayan de Oro
Mean TemperatureCagayan de Oro
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25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
DegreeCentigrad
e(C)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Mean Temperature (C)under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B)
Cagayan de Oro
OBS
2020
2050
g y
MonthMEAN
Projected Change
(%)
BIAS CORRECTED PROJ CHANGE
TMEANObserved1971-2000
2020 2050 1971-2000 2020 2050
Jan 26.7 1.1 2 26.7 27.8 28.7
Feb 26.8 1.2 2.3 26.8 28.0 29.1
Mar 27.4 1.1 2.5 27.4 28.5 29.9
Apr 28.3 1.5 2.8 28.3 29.8 31.1
May 29.1 1.4 2.5 29.1 30.5 31.6Jun 28.4 1.3 2.7 28.4 29.7 31.1
July 28.2 1.4 2.7 28.2 29.6 30.9
Aug 28.3 1.4 2.8 28.3 29.7 31.1
Sept 28.2 1.1 2.4 28.2 29.3 30.6
Oct 28.0 1.0 2.2 28.0 29.0 30.2
Nov 27.7 1.0 2.1 27.7 28.7 29.8
Dec 27.2 0.9 2.0 27.2 28.1 29.2
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
RainfallAmount
(mm)
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B)
Cagayan de Oro
OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-2000) 2020 (2006-2035) 2050 (2036-2065)
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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
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What are the possible scenarios
The impacts on people will vary dependingwhere you live impacts could include:
Many people having to move to higher
ground, due to flooding
People having to be better prepared intropical cyclone-risk regions
Farmers having to adapt to changing growingseasons
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Hydromet Hazard and its impacts
Tropical CyclonesDamage and losses are due to:
- severe winds
- heavy /prolonged rainfall flooding/landslide/mudflow
- storm surge
- Tornado
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Tropical Cyclone Hazards and its impacts
Strong Winds
Storm Surge
Flooding due to heavy rainfall
Landslide/Mudflow
MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE
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MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIOS
Increased temperature Increased variability of monsoon
Increased risks of floods and droughts
Water-stressed conditions in areas with lessrainfall
Sea level rise
Climate surprises/shocks
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Impact to Biodiversity
Changes species distribution
Increases extinction rates Changes the reproduction timings
Changes length of growing seasons for plant
Global warming:
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Climate Change Drives Species to
Extinction
Some first know victims of climate change
i. Golden toad
ii. Monteverde harlequin frog
Many more predicted to follow suite due to
current rate of temperature increase
Above +2C impacts will be large
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1C 2C 5C4C3C
Sea level rise
threatens major cities
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Food
Water
Ecosystems
Risk of Abrupt and
Major Irreversible
Changes
0C
Falling yields in many
developed regions
Rising number of species face extinction
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Significant decreases in water
availability in many areas, including
Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Small mountain glaciers
disappear water
supplies threatened inseveral areas
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
ExtremeWeather EventsRising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Possible rising yields in
some high latitude regions
p g
How climate information accessed from PAGASA utilized
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How climate information accessed from PAGASA utilized
DRR/CCA
The baseline climate information andclimate projections can be used as initial datain identifying current and future climate risk in
the water and agriculture sector .
Seasonal Climate Forecast which is beingissued on a monthly basis can be used forplanning especially when there is extremeclimate events. (i.e. El Nio/La Nia).
What questions do we now need to consider?
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What questions do we now need to consider?
Do you know what impact climate change could have on
your area? Do your current policies, strategies and plans include
provision for the impacts of climate change?
Can you identify and assess the risks from climate change toyour services?
Are developments with a lifetime of more than 20 yearsrequired to factor in climate change?
Are you addressing climate change in your local CommunityStrategy?
Do you consider climate risk in your decision-making ?
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Observations/Monitoring
national
climate service
Research, Modeling
& Assessments
Early Warning & Risk Management
Adaptation & Mitigation
Academe (UP, MO )
EFCOS ASTI
PAGASA
DA DPWHInternational communities
IPCC, NCAR, CSIRO,
Waterlinks
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In conclusion, all activities by the DOST, in
general, and the PAGASA in particular, are
geared towards reducing risks and building
resilient communities against a backdrop of
changing climate.
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Tracking the skyhelping the country
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Key Findings
In the Philippines, there already are trends of
increasing number of hot days and warmnights, but decreasing number of cold daysand cool nights. Both maximum and minimumtemperatures are generally getting warmer;
Other extreme weather/climate events,Tropical Storm like intense rains have beenseen to be more frequent;
The trend in the number tropical cyclones
greater than 150 is found to be morefrequent during El Nio events.
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Key Findings(continuation)TEMPERATURE
In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasingnumber of hot days and warm nights, but decreasingnumber of cold days and cool nights. Both maximumand minimum temperatures are generally gettingwarmer;
There has been an increase in the observed mean
annual temperature by 0.64C from 1951-2010 and isprojected to increase by an average 1C by 2020;
The rate increase in 2035 is projected to be much fasterthan the rate of increase during the last 60 years;
. All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in
the relatively warmer summer months; Annual mean temperatures (average of maximum and
minimum temperatures) in all areas in the country areexpected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 Cto 2.2 C in 2050.
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2. Rainfall
Reduction in rainfall in most provinces during thesummer season (MAM) making the usually dryseason drier , while
Rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzonand Visayas during the southwest monsoon (JJA)and the SON seasons, making these seasons stillwetter, and thus with likelihood of both droughtsand floods in areas where these are projected;
Drier season becoming drier and wetter seasonbecoming wetter and greater with time in 2020 &2050.
Key Findings (continuation)
KEY FINDINGS (continuation)
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3. Extreme events
Projections for extreme events in 2020 and2050 show that:
Hot temperatures (indicated by the numberof days with maximum temperature
exceeding 35C) will continue to becomemore frequent.;
Number of dry days (days with less than2.5mm of rain) will increase in all parts of thecountry and
heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm)events will also continue to increase innumber in Luzon and Visayas.
KEY FINDINGS (continuation)