1

MODUL PERKULIAHAN

Teknik Proyeksi Bisnis(Forecasting)

Oleh:H. SETYABUDI INDARTONO, MM

PROGRAM STUDI MANAGEMENTFAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL

UNIVERSITAS NEGERI YOGYAKARTA2006

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DAFTAR ISI

Pengantar

Smooting

Dekomposisi

Regresi

3

PERSEMBAHAN

Guru, insirator, motivator .....Yang secara ikhlas menjadi energizerMas Bowo Trustco Jakarta

Para asatidz, masayikh ....Yang telah memberikan arahan, panduan di jalan Perjuangan

Rekan-rekan Tim Trustco se Indonesia, juga MalaysiaPara Mujahid Nasrul Fikroh, tatmiyatul kafaah dan tidak lupa kasbulmaisyah

Special for You, Jogja TeamIwan , Setiya, Junni, Choirul, Fadli,

Tak lupa tim Unit Ngaglik 2

Istri Tercinta,Yayuk SorayaAnak-anak,Aiman Hilmi AsaduddinRofiq Wafi’ MuhammadMuhammad Haisan Haedar

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PENGANTAR

- Teknik proyeksi Bisnis merupakan suatu cara atau pendekatan untuk

menentukan ramalan (perkiraan) mengenai sesuatu di masa yang

akan datang.

- Kelangsungan bisnis dipengaruhi oleh faktor lingkungan kontrol dan

sosial, lingkungan teknologi dan lingkungan ekonomi mikro

Penentuan Akurasi forcasting

1. Data yang relevan: Jenis, Sifat dan sumber, data kualitatif dankuntitatif

2. Teknik peramalan: kualitatif dan kuantitatif1. Teknik Statistik: Smothing, dekomposisi, box jenkins2. Teknik deterministik: regresi sederhana, regresi berganda,

auto regresi, model input output3. Pemilihan teknik peramalan

1. Pola atau karakteristik2. Jangka waktu3. Biaya4. Tingkat akurasi

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SMOOTHING METHOD

Moving Average

Single Moving Average

Ft = Xt + Xt-1 + Xt-2 ….+ Xt-n+1

N

Karakteristik Single Moving Average

Untuk menentukan ramalan pada periode yang akan datan memerlukan data

historis selama jangka waktu tertentu

Semakin panjang jangka waktu average semakin halus efek pelicinannya

Forecasting error

Error = Riil – Ramalan

Mean Absolut Error

= | Xt – Ft|

N

Mean Square Error

= (Xt – Ft)2

N

2 BulananPeriode Bulan Penjualan Forecast Error Abs Square

1 January 1002 February 1203 March 110 110.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 April 105 115.0 -10.0 10.0 100.05 May 115 107.5 7.5 7.5 56.36 June 125 110.0 15.0 15.0 225.07 July 125 120.0 5.0 5.0 25.0

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8 August 115 125.0 -10.0 10.0 100.09 September 110 120.0 -10.0 10.0 100.0

10 October 120 112.5 7.5 7.5 56.311 November 125 115.0 10.0 10.0 100.012 December 115 122.5 -7.5 7.5 56.3

Jumlah 1157.5 7.5 82.5 818.8Mean 8.3 81.9

Double Moving Average

Menghitung moving average bergerak pertama dengan diberi simbol

StI, yang dihitung dari data historis.

Menghitung moving average bergerak kedua dengan diberi simbol

StII, yang dihitung dari data bergerak pertama

Menentukan besarnya nilai konstanta at=2SI -SII

Menentukan besarnya slope bt = 2/(V -1) x (SI-SII)

V = Moving

Menentukan besarnya forcasting

Ft + m = a +b(m)

m = selisih tahun forecast

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Double Moving Averagemoving 5

Periode Bulan Penjualan SI SII Konstanta Sloop forecast Error Absolut Square1 January 13002 February 13603 March 14004 April 13205 May 1290 1334.006 June 1470 1368.007 July 1350 1366.008 August 1415 1369.009 September 1530 1411.00 1369.60 1452.40 20.70 1390.30 139.70 139.70 19516.09

10 October 1410 1435.00 1389.80 1480.20 22.60 1412.40 -2.40 2.40 5.7611 November 1520 1445.00 1405.20 1484.80 19.90 1425.10 94.90 94.90 9006.0112 December 1490 1473.00 1426.60 1519.40 23.20 1449.80 40.20 40.20 1616.04

277.20 30143.90Mean 69.30 7535.98

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Soal LatihanCarilah Forecast untuk bulan januari tahun berikutnya. Dan berapa Mean

absolute error dan mean square errornya.

Data penjualan perusahaan A.

Periode Bulan Penjualan1 January 10502 February 13053 March 11004 April 10005 May 9756 June 12307 July 12508 August 12009 September 1350

10 October 110011 November 105012 December 1050

Carilah Forecast untuk bulan trimester ke tigabelas. Dan berapa Mean

absolute error dan mean square errornya.

keuntungan bisnis perusahaan B.

Trimester Profit1 7382 8573 7784 7295 8476 8297 9728 9279 837

10 90411 62712 498

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Exponential Smoothing

Single ExponentialSmooting

Pemberian bobot data baru a, data lama (1- ), data yang lebih lama

(1- )2

Besarnnya adalah antara 0 dan 1

- Ft+1 = Xt + (1-)Ft

- Ft+1 = Ft + (Xt–Ft)

(Xt–Ft) merupakan forecast error pada periode t

Dalam melakukan peramalan, besarnya a ditentukan secara trial error

sampai mendapatkan forecast error terkecil

Periode Bulan Penjualan Forecast Error Abs Square1 January 13002 February 1360 1300.0 60.0 60.0 3600.03 Maret 1400 1324.60 75.4 75.4 5685.24 April 1320 1355.51 -35.5 35.5 1261.25 May 1300 1340.95 -41.0 41.0 1677.26 June 1450 1324.16 125.8 125.8 15835.17 July 1325 1375.76 -50.8 50.8 2576.28 August 1400 1354.95 45.1 45.1 2029.99 September 1500 1373.42 126.6 126.6 16023.0

10 October 1450 1425.32 24.7 24.7 609.311 November 1500 1435.44 64.6 64.6 4168.412 December 1400 1461.91 -61.9 61.9 3832.6

711.3 57297.9

Double Exponential Smooting

Dalam melakukan peramalan, dimulai dengan menentukan

besarnya yang ditentukan secara trial error

Menentukan smooting pertama S’t

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S’t = Xt + (1-) S’t-1

Menentukan smooting kedua S’’t

S’’t = S’t + (1-) S’’t-1

Menentukan besarnya konstanta at

t = 2 S’t - S’’t

Menentukan besarnya slope bt

bt = (S’t - S’’t)

1-

Menentukan besarnya forecastFt + m = at +bt (m)

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Double Exponential Smooting

=Periode Bulan Unit SI SII Konstanta Sloop forecast Error Absolut Square1 January 1300 1300 1300

2 February 1360 1306.0 1300.6 1311.4 0.6 1300.0 60.00 60.00 3,600

3 March 1400 1315.4 1302.1 1328.72 1.48 1312.0 88.00 88.00 7,744

4 April 1320 1315.9 1303.5 1328.262 1.38 1330.2 -10.20 10.20 104

5 May 1290 1313.3 1304.4 1322.108 0.98 1329.6 -39.64 39.64 1,571

6 June 1470 1328.9 1306.9 1351.003 2.45 1323.1 146.91 146.91 21,583

7 July 1350 1331.1 1309.3 1352.797 2.42 1353.5 -3.45 3.45 12

8 August 1415 1339.4 1312.3 1366.573 3.01 1355.2 59.79 59.79 3,574

9 September 1530 1358.5 1316.9 1400.065 4.62 1369.6 160.41 160.41 25,732

10 October 1410 1363.7 1321.6 1405.694 4.67 1404.7 5.32 5.32 28

11 November 1520 1379.3 1327.4 1431.196 5.77 1410.4 109.63 109.63 12,020

12 December 1490 1390.4 1333.7 1447.04 6.30 1437.0 53.04 53.04 2,813

736.39 78,782

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Soal Latihan

Carilah Forecast untuk bulan januari tahun berikutnya. Dan berapa nilai

untuk mendapatkan Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn terkecil

serta berapa nilai Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn

Data penjualan perusahaan A.

Periode Bulan Penjualan1 January 10502 February 13053 March 11004 April 10005 May 9756 June 12307 July 12508 August 12009 September 1350

10 October 110011 November 105012 December 1050

Carilah Forecast untuk bulan trimester ke tigabelas. Dan berapa nilai

untuk mendapatkan Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn terke cil

serta berapa nilai Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn

keuntungan bisnis perusahaan B.

Trimester Profit1 7382 8573 7784 7295 8476 8297 9728 9279 837

10 90411 62712 498

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DECOMPOSITION METHOD

TREND

Tren adalah rata-rata perubahan dalam jangka panjang

Tren Linier

Trend Parabolik

Tran eksponensial

TREND LINIER BEBASTrend Bebas yaitu penarikan garis trend tanpa menggunakan formula

matematis yaitu digunakan dengan metoda bebas, namun bukan berarti

tanpa pertimbangan.

TREND SETENGAH RATA-RATA

Data yang ada dibagi dua kelompok dengan jumlah yang sama

Tahun dasar ada pada tengh-tengah kelompik I

Pada masing-masing kelompok ditentukan nilai X, semitotal dan

semi average

Jumlah nilai X pada kelompok I harus nol

Proyeksi di tahun yang akan datang tergantung berapa besarnya

nilai X

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Nilai trend dihitung dengan rumus

Y = a + bX

a = rata-rata kelompok I

b = (rata-rata kelompok II – rata-rata kelompok I)/n

n = Jumlah data masing-masing kelompok

X = nilai yang ditentukan berdasarkan tahun dasar

Trend Setengah Rata-rata (data ganjil)

Tahun Y X Semitotal Semiavrg

1994 120 -11995 125 01996 125 1

370 123.3333

1997 160 21998 140 31999 160 4

460 153.3333

a = 123.33b= 153.33 - 123.33 = 10

3

Persamaan TrenY = a + b XY = a + b X 123.33 + 10 X

Trend Setengah Rata-rata (data ganjil)

Tahun Y X Semitotal Semiavrg

1994 120 -31995 125 -11996 130 11997 145 3

520 130.00

1997 145 31998 150 51999 160 72000 165 9

620 155.00

a = 130.00b= 155.00 - 130.00 = 3.125

2 x 4

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Persamaan TrenY = a + b XY = a + b X 130.00 + 3.125 X

TREND DENGAN METODE KUADRAT TERKECIL (LEAST SQUARE)

Data Ganjil

Y = a + bX

a = Y/n

a = YX/X2

a = Y/n

b = XY/X2

Tahun Y X XY X2

1999 125 -2 -250 42000 160 -1 -160 12001 140 0 0 02002 160 1 160 12003 175 2 350 4

Jumlah 760 0 100 10

a= 760 = 1525

b= 100 = 1010

Persamaan TrenY = a + b XY = a + b X 152 + 10 X

Forecast

Tahun th ke (X) Y = a +b X

2005 4 192.002009 8 232.00

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Data Genap

Tahun Y X XY X2

1993 120 -7 -840 491994 125 -5 -625 251995 125 -3 -375 91996 160 -1 -160 11997 140 1 140 11998 160 3 480 91999 175 5 875 252000 175 7 1225 49

Jumlah 1180 0 720 168

a= 1180 = 1488

b= 720 = 4.3168

Persamaan TrenY = a + b XY = a +b X 148 + 4.29 X

TREND MOMENTY = a + bX

Y = n.a + Xb

YX = X.a /X2.b

Tahun Y X XY X2

1999 125 0 0 02000 160 1 160 12001 140 2 280 42002 160 3 480 92003 175 4 700 16

Jumlah 760 10 1620 30

760 = 5 a+ 10 b1620 = 10 a+ 30 b

1520 = 10 a+ 20 b1620 = 10 a+ 30 b

100 = 10 bb = 10.0a = 132

persamaanY = 132 + 10.0 X

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MENGUBAH BENTUK PERSAMAAN TRENMerubah titik origin

Y = 132 + 10 Xtitik awal pada tahun 1999Perubahan titik pada 2002Y = 132 + 10 XY = 132 + 10 3Y = 162Persamaan baruY = 162 + 10 X

Tren rata-rata perbulanan Tren rata-rata bulananY = 132 + 10 X Y = 132 + 10 X

12 12 12 122

Y = 11 + 0.83 X Y = 11 + 0.07 XTren rata-rata per triwulanan Tren rata-rata triwulanan

Y = 162 + 10 X Y = 132 + 10 X4 4 4 42

Y = 41 + 2.5 X Y = 33 + 0.63 X

TREND PARABOLIKY = a + bX + cX2

Y = n.a + cX2

YX = bX2

X2Y = aX2 + cX4

Tahun Y X XY X2 X2Y X4

1995 120 -9 -1080 81 9720 65611996 130 -7 -910 49 6370 24011997 140 -5 -700 25 3500 6251998 120 -3 -360 9 1080 811999 150 -1 -150 1 150 12000 140 1 140 1 140 12001 130 3 390 9 1170 812002 140 5 700 25 3500 6252003 130 7 910 49 6370 24012004 120 9 1080 81 9720 6561

Jumlah 1320 0 20 330 41720 19338

18

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Series1

Poly. (Series1)

1,320 = 10 a + 330 c

20 = 330 b

41,720 = 330 a + 19,338 c

41,720 = 330 a + 19,338 c

1,320 = 10 a + 330 c

41,720 = 330 a + 19,338 c

43,560 = 330 a + 10,890 c

- 1,840 = 8,448 c

c = -0.2

a = 139

b = 0.06

Y = 139 + 0.06 X +-

0.22 X2

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TREND EKSPONENSIALY = a + bx

Log Y = Log a + X Log b

Log a = Log Y

n

Log b = X Log Y

X2

Tahun Y Log Y X X2 X log Y1995 1250 3.10 -9 81 -27.871996 1300 3.11 -7 49 -21.801997 1410 3.15 -5 25 -15.751998 1250 3.10 -3 9 -9.291999 1200 3.08 -1 1 -3.082000 1450 3.16 1 1 3.162001 1300 3.11 3 9 9.342002 1430 3.16 5 25 15.782003 1400 3.15 7 49 22.022004 1350 3.13 9 81 28.17

Jumlah 13340 31.24 0 330 0.690

Log a = Log Y = 31.24 = 3.1243n 10

Log b = X Log

Y = 0.69 = 0.0021n 330

Log Y = Log a + Log b. XLog Y = 3.1243 + 0.0021 X

VARIASI MUSIMMetode Rata-rata Sederhana

1. Menentukan penjualan rata -rata tiap triwulan pada tahun-tahun

data yang diketahui

2. Mengurangi penjualan rata-rata tersebut dengan akumulasi nilai b

(Sloop)

3. Menentukan Indeks Musiman =

(rata-rata-b komulatif) triwulan tahun tertentu

(rerata-b komulatif) triwulan seluruh tahun

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Tahun Y X XY X2

1993 195 -3 -585 91994 207 -2 -414 41995 210 -1 -210 11996 215 0 0 01997 225 1 225 11998 230 2 460 41999 236 3 708 9

Jumlah 1518 0 184 28

a= 1518 = 216.97

b= 184 = 728

Persamaan TrenY = a + b XY = a + b X 216.9 + 6.57 X

Origin 1996Y = a + b X 217 + 6.57 X

4 42

Y = a + b X 54 + 0.41 X

Rata-rata sederhana

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 rata2B Kum

Rata2 -b kum

Index(%)

TW 1 50 55 53 49 56 51 54 52.6 0.41 52.16 99%TW 2 60 63 59 63 64 70 67 63.7 0.82 62.89 120%TW 3 45 47 50 46 55 52 59 50.6 1.23 49.34 95%TW 4 40 43 48 55 50 57 56 49.9 1.64 48.21 94%Jumlah 195 208 210 213 225 230 236 212.61rerata 48.8 52 52.5 53.3 56.3 57.5 59 53.15

VARIASI MUSIM

Metode presentase terhadap tren

1. Menyajikan data penjualan riil

2. Menyajikan data tren penjualan

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3. Menghitung prosentase penjualan riil terhadap tren penjualan

4. Mencari median persentase tersebut pada tiap triwulan

5. Menentukan indeks musiman

METODE PRESENTASE TERHADAP TREN

1. Menyajikan data penjualan riil

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999TW 1 50 55 53 49 56 51 54TW 2 60 63 59 63 64 70 67TW 3 45 47 50 46 55 52 59TW 4 40 43 48 55 50 57 56

Y= 217 + 6.57 XPenjualan Origin tahun 1996

Y= 54.2 + 0.41 XPenjualan triwulan origin triwulan II -III tahun 1996

Origin tengah tahun 19961993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

TW 1 -13.5 -9.5 -5.5 -1.5 2.5 6.5 10.5TW 2 -12.5 -8.5 -4.5 -0.5 3.5 7.5 11.5TW 3 -11.5 -7.5 -3.5 0.5 4.5 8.5 12.5TW 4 -10.5 -6.5 -2.5 1.5 5.5 9.5 13.5

perubahan origin ke TW 1 tahun 19971993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

TW 1 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8TW 2 -15 -11 -7 -3 1 5 9TW 3 -14 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10TW 4 -13 -9 -5 -1 3 7 11

Y= 54.2 + 0.41 XPenjualan triwulan origin triwulan II -III tahun 1996

perubahan ke origin TW 1 1997Y= 54.2 + 0.41 2.5Y= 54.2 + 1.03Y= 55.2Persamaan tren baruY= 55.2 + 0.41 X

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Nilai tren penjualan triwulan 1993-19991993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

TW 1 48.7 50.3 52.0 53.6 55.2 56.9 58.5TW 2 49.1 50.7 52.4 54.0 55.7 57.3 58.9TW 3 49.5 51.1 52.8 54.4 56.1 57.7 59.3TW 4 49.9 51.5 53.2 54.8 56.5 58.1 59.8

Prosentase penjualan riil terhadap tren1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

TW 1 103% 109% 102% 91% 101% 90% 92%TW 2 122% 124% 113% 117% 115% 122% 114%TW 3 91% 92% 95% 85% 98% 90% 99%

TW 4 80% 83% 90% 100% 89% 98% 94%

Median

TW 1 90% 91% 92% 101% 102% 103% 109%TW 2 113% 114% 115% 117% 122% 122% 124%TW 3 85% 90% 91% 92% 95% 98% 99%

TW 4 80% 83% 89% 90% 94% 98% 100%

400%

Nilai rata-rata median400.2 = 100

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Indeks MusimNilai

TW 1 101% 101%TW 2 117% 117%TW 3 92% 92%

TW 4 90% 90%

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Variasi MusimMetode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak

1. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama satu tahun (4 TW) dan

letakkan pada pertengahan data

2. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama dua tahun (4TW) dan letakkan

pada pertengahan data

3. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dengan membagi hasil dari no. 2

dengan 8 TW

4. Menghitung presentase data riil terhadap rata -rata bergerak

5. Menentukan median persentase tersebut

6. Menentukan indeks musim

Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak

1. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama satu tahun (4 TW) dan letakkan

pada pertengahan data

2. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama dua tahun (4TW) dan letakkan

pada pertengahan data

3. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dengan membagi hasil dari no. 2

dengan 8 TW

4. Menghitung presentase data riil terhadap rata -rata bergerak

Penjualanjml bergerak

4TWJml bergerak 2

thrata-ratabergerak

% penjualan thdMOVA

TW 1 50TW 2 60 195TW 3 45 200 395 49 91%

1993

TW 4 40 203 403 50 79%TW 1 55 205 408 51 108%TW 2 63 208 413 52 122%TW 3 47 206 414 52 91%

1994

TW 4 43 202 408 51 84%TW 1 53 205 407 51 104%TW 2 59 210 415 52 114%TW 3 50 206 416 52 96%

1995

TW 4 48 210 416 52 92%TW 1 49 206 416 52 94%TW 2 63 213 419 52 120%TW 3 46 220 433 54 85%

1996

TW 4 55 221 441 55 100%

24

TW 1 56 230 451 56 99%TW 2 64 225 455 57 113%TW 3 55 220 445 56 99%

1997

TW 4 50 226 446 56 90%TW 1 51 223 449 56 91%TW 2 70 230 453 57 124%TW 3 52 233 463 58 90%

1998

TW 4 57 230 463 58 98%TW 1 54 237 467 58 93%TW 2 67 236 473 59 113%TW 3 59

1999

TW 4 56

Variasi MusimMetode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak

• Menentukan median persentase tersebut

• Menentukan indeks musim

MEDIANIndeksMusim

TW 1 0% 91% 93% 94% 99% 104% 108% 97% 97%TW 2 0% 113% 113% 114% 120% 122% 124% 117% 117%TW 3 0% 85% 90% 91% 91% 96% 99% 91% 91%TW 4 0% 79% 84% 90% 92% 98% 100% 91% 91%

99%

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Variasi SIKLIS

1. Menyusun Penjualan Riil per teriwulan

2. Menyusun tren penjualan triwulan (T)

3. Menyusun indeks musim (M)

4. Menentukan nilai normal (TxM)

5. Menentukan perubahan Siklis (S) dan random (R); penjualan riil /

nilai normal

6. Menentukan jumlah tertimbang bergerak (weighted moving total)

7. Menentukan indeks siklis (rata -rata tertimbang)

Penj

uala

n

Tren

(T)

inde

k M

usim

(M)

T x

M

Varia

si S

&R

jum

lah

berg

erak

rata

-rata

berg

erak

TW 1 50 48.67 103% 50 100TW 2 60 49.08 122% 60 100 400 100TW 3 45 49.49 91% 45 100 400 100

1993

TW 4 40 49.90 80% 40 100 400 100TW 1 55 50.31 109% 55 100 400 100TW 2 63 50.72 124% 63 100 400 100TW 3 47 51.13 92% 47 100 400 100

1994

TW 4 43 51.54 83% 43 100 400 100TW 1 53 51.96 102% 53 100 400 100TW 2 59 52.37 113% 59 100 400 100TW 3 50 52.78 95% 50 100 400 100

1995

TW 4 48 53.19 90% 48 100 400 100TW 1 49 53.60 91% 49 100 400 100TW 2 63 54.01 117% 63 100 400 100TW 3 46 54.42 85% 46 100 400 100

1996

TW 4 55 54.83 100% 55 100 400 100TW 1 56 55.24 101% 56 100 400 100TW 2 64 55.65 115% 64 100 400 100TW 3 55 56.06 98% 55 100 400 100

1997

TW 4 50 56.47 89% 50 100 400 100TW 1 51 56.88 90% 51 100 400 100TW 2 70 57.29 122% 70 100 400 100TW 3 52 57.71 90% 52 100 400 100

1998

TW 4 57 58.12 98% 57 100 400 100TW 1 54 58.53 92% 54 100 400 100TW 2 67 58.94 114% 67 100 400 100TW 3 59 59.35 99% 59 100 400 100

1999

TW 4 56 59.76 94% 56 100

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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999IndeksMusim

TW 1 48.67 50.31 51.96 53.60 55.24 56.88 58.53 99%TW 2 49.08 50.72 52.37 54.01 55.65 57.29 58.94 100%TW 3 49.49 51.13 52.78 54.42 56.06 57.71 59.35 100%TW 4 49.90 51.54 53.19 54.83 56.47 58.12 59.76 101%

216.9Nilai rata-rata median216.9 = 54.21

4

Variasi RANDOM

Variasi random merupakan suatu hal yang terjadi secara tiba -tiba dan

sukar diperkirkan

LatihanBerapa prediksi biaya pada tahunberikutnya untuk dua perusahaan di

bawah.

Tahun A B1999 1867 28012000 1879 28192001 1786 26792002 1098 16472003 1987 29812004 1697 25462005 1769 26542006 1999 29992007 1768 26522008 1987 29812009 1097 16462010 1679 2519

Hitunglah dengan metode:

1. Tren Linier2. Least Square3. Tren Momen4. Tren prabolik5. Tren Exponensial

27

Dengan metode tren momen dan least square, Carilah perkiraanpenjualan tahun bulan januari tahun berikutnya dari data penjualan:Tahun Sale

jan 1,350feb 1,225mar 1,475apr 1,530may 1,625jun 1,500jul 1,560

aug 1,640sep 1,475oct 1,575nov 1,640dec 1,700

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REGRESIRegresi Sederhana

Tahun Y X XY X2 Y2 Y Y-Y (Y-Y)2

1993 1,240 690 855,600 476,100 1,537,600 1,264 -24 555

1994 1,310 725 949,750 525,625 1,716,100 1,326 -16 250

1995 1,270 710 901,700 504,100 1,612,900 1,299 -29 848

1996 1,360 740 1,006,400 547,600 1,849,600 1,352 8 57

1997 1,375 750 1,031,250 562,500 1,890,625 1,370 5 23

1998 1,320 700 924,000 490,000 1,742,400 1,281 39 1,494

1999 1,290 695 896,550 483,025 1,664,100 1,272 18 308

Jumlah 9,165 5,010 6,565,250 3,588,950 12,013,325 9,165 0 3,534

Standar erorSe = qsrt ((Y-Y)2/(n-2))Se= 26.588

Korelasi r = n XY - X.Ysqrt (nX2-(X)2. (ny2-(Y)2) 0.86

Uji aSa = Se/sqrt (n)

Sa = 10.049

ta = a/Sata = 3.64

t tabel (,n-2)(0.05, 7-2)(0.05,5) = 2.721

ta > t tabela signifikan

29

Uji bSb = Se/sqrt (xi)

xi = Xi2-1/n(xi)(xi)

xi = 3,221

Sb = 0.47tb = b/Sb

tb = 3.80t tabel (,n-2)

(0.05, 7-2)(0.05,5) = 2.721

tb >t

tabelb signifikan

Uji rtr = r sqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-r2)

tr = 3.80t tabel (,n-2)

(0.05, 7-2)(0.05,5) 2.721

tr > t tabelr signifikan

30

Auto Regresi

Tahun Y X1 X2 Y2 X12 X22 X1.Y X2.Y X1.X2

1995 12 1.4 10 144 2 100 16.8 120 14

1996 15 1.3 11 225 2 121 19.5 165 14

1997 7 1.9 9 49 4 81 13.3 63 17

1998 16 1.2 13 256 1 169 19.2 208 16

1999 20 1.1 19 400 1 361 22 380 21

Jumlah 70 7 62 1,074 10 832 91 936 82Y = n.a + b1. X1+ b2 X2X1Y = aX1 + b1 X12 + b2 X1X2X2Y = a X2 + b1 X1X2 + b2X22

Y = 5 a + 7 b1 + 62 b2 = 70X1Y = 6.9 a + 10 b1 + 82 b2 = 91X2Y = 62 a + 82 b1 + 832 b2 = 936

5 a + 6.9 b1 + 62 b2 = 70 6.9 a + 9.9 b1 + 81.9 b2 = 90.8

34.5 a + 48 b1 + 428 b2 = 48334.5 a + 50 b1 + 410 b2 = 454

-1.9 b1 + 18.3 b2 = 29

6.9 a + 10 b1 + 82 b2 = 91 62 a + 82 b1 + 832 b2 = 936428 a + 614 b1 + 5078 b2 = 5630428 a + 565 b1 + 5741 b2 = 6458

49 b1 + -663 b2 = -829-

1.9 b1 + 18.3 b2 = 29-96 b1 + 1286 b2 = 1608-96 b1 + 902 b2 = 1430

384 b2 = 178b2 = 0.46b1 = -10.6a = 22.85

Y = a + b1. X1+ b2 X2

Y = 22.8 +-

10.58 X1 + 0.46 X2

31

Regresi Berganda

Tahun Penjualan (X) Variabel (Xt) X.Xt Xt2 X2

2001 70 60 4,200 3,600 4,900

2002 90 75 6,750 5,625 8,100

2003 100 70 7,000 4,900 10,000

2004 115 90 10,350 8,100 13,225

2005 110 100 11,000 10,000 12,100

2006 125 115 14,375 13,225 15,625

610 510 53,675 45,450 63,950

Sloop

b= 6 53,675 -610 510

6 45,450-

260100

b= 0.87

konstantaa = 610 - 0.87 510

6a = 27.8

Y = a + b X

Y = 27.8 + 0.87 X

Dependen Y = a + b XForecast

tahunpengaruh

tahunpengaruh

tahunpengaruh

tahunpengaruh

tahunpengaruh

2007 2005 100 100 114.702010 2008 2006 115 115 127.742020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 127.7380952 138.81

32

Koefisienkorelasi

r = 6 53,675 -510 610

sqrt {( 6 45,450 -260100 ) ( 6 63,950-

372100 )}r = 10,950

12,090r = 0.91

Signifikansi Korelasitr = r sqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-r2)

tr = 4.27t tabel (,n-2)

(0.05, 7-2)(0.05,5) 2.721

tr > t tabelr signifikan

Latihan

Carilah hubungan dan signifikasi hubungan antara variabel di bawah

Tahun gaji kelahiran2001 1,000 202002 1,200 352003 1,100 202004 900 302005 1,200 402006 1,100 202007 1,350 20

Carilah hubungan dan signifikasi hubungan variabel di bawah, dan carilah

penjualan tahun 2010

Tahun Penjualan2004 1202005 1202006 1402007 1352008 1502009 110

33

TUGAS TPB

Ketentuan:1. tidak boleh ada tugas yang sama persis antar mahasiswa2. masing-masing mahasiswa memilih variable yang akan

menjadi variable dependen dan independennya (regresiberganda: variable independent minimal 2 variabel)

3. objek berupa perusahaan/lembaga profit/non profit4. jumlah responden minimal 50 (50 karyawan/anggota)5. dikumpulkan sepekan sebelum ujian akhir

Bentuk laporanBab I : pendahuluan/latar belakang masa lahBab II: Rencana penelitianBab III: hasil penelitianBab IV: Perhitungan dan analisisBab V: kesimpulan dan saranLampiran-lampiran

- angket terisi- resum angket- perhitungan statistik - regresi

34

WHAT'S MY MBTI PERSONALITY TYPE?For each item, select either a or b. If you feel both a and b are true, decidewhich one is more like you, even if it is only slightly more true.

1. I would rathera) Solve a new and complicated

problem.

b) Work on something I have donebefore.

2. I like toa) Work alone in a quiet place.

b) Be where the action is.

3. I want a boss whoa) Establishes and applies criteria

in decisions.

b) Considers individual needs andmakes exceptions.

4. When I work on a project, Ia) Like to finish it and get some

closure.

b) Often leave it open forpossible changes.

5. When making a decision, themost important considerations are

a) Rational thoughts, ideas, anddata.

b) People's feelings and values.

6. On a project, I tend toa) Think it over and over before

deciding how to proceed.

b) Start working on it rightaway, thinking about it as I goalong.

7. When working on a project, Ia) Maintain as much control as

possible.

b) Explore various options.

8. In my work, I prefer toa) Work on several projects at

a time, and learn as much aspossible about each one.

b) Have one project that ischallenging and keeps me busy.

9. I oftena) Make lists and plans whenever

I start something and may hate toseriously alter my plans.

b) Avoid plans and just let thingsprogress as I work on them.

10. When discussing a problemwith colleagues, it is easy for meto

a) See "the big picture."

b) Grasp the specifics of thesituation.

11. When the phone rings in myoffice or at home, I usually

a) Consider it an interruption.

b) Do not mind answering it.

12. Which word describes youbetter?

a) Analytical.

b) Empathetic.13. When I am working on an 14. When I listen to someone

35

assignment, I tend toa) Work steadily and consistently.

b) Work in bursts of energy with"down time" in between.

talk on a subject, I usually try toa) Relate it to my own

experience and see if it fits.

b) Assess and analyze themessage.

15. When I come up with new ideas,I generally

a) "Go for it."

b) Like to contemplate the ideassome more

16. When working on a project, Iprefer to

a) Narrow the scope so it isclearly defined.

b) Broaden the scope toinclude related aspects.

17. When I read something, Iusually

a) Confine my thoughts to what iswritten there.

b) Read between the lines andrelate the words to other ideas.

18. When I have to make adecision in a hurry, I often

a) Feel uncomfortable and wishI had more information.

b) Am able to do so withavailable data.

19. In a meeting, I tend toa) Continue formulating my ideas

as I talk about them.

b) Only speak out after I havecarefully thought the issue through.

20. In work, I prefer spending agreat deal of time on issues of

a) Ideas.

b) People.

21. In meetings, I am most oftenannoyed with people who

a) Come up with many sketchyideas.

b) Lengthen meetings with manypractical details.

22. I am aa) Morning person.

b) Night owl.

23. What is your style in preparingfor a meeting?

a) I am willing to go in and beresponsive.

b) I like to be fully prepared andusually sketch an outline of themeeting.

24. In a meeting, I would preferfor people to

a) Display a fuller range ofemotions.

b) Be more task oriented.

25. I would rather work for anorganization where

a) My job was intellectuallystimulating.

26. On weekends, I tend toa) Plan what I will do.

b) Just see what happens and

36

b) I was committed to its goalsand mission.

decide as I go along.

27. I am morea) Outgoing.

b) Contemplative.

28. I would rather work for aboss who is

a) Full of new ideas.

b) Practical.In the following, choose the word in each pair that appeals to youmore:29.

a) Social.

b) Theoretical.

30.a) Ingenuity.

b) Practicality.31.

a) Organized.

b) Adaptable.

32.a) Active.

b) Concentration.

37

WHAT'S MY LOCUS OF CONTROL?For each of the following ten statements, select the choice with which you agreemore.

1. Making a lot of money is largely a matter of getting the right breaks.

Promotions are earned through hard work and persistence.

2.I have noticed that there is a direct connection between how hard I study and the

grades I get.

Many times, the reactions of teachers seem haphazard to me.

3.The number of divorces indicates that more and more people are not trying to

make their marriages work.

Marriage is largely a gamble.

4. It is silly to think that one can really change another person's basic attitudes.

When I am right I can convince others.

5. Getting promoted is really a matter of being a little luckier than the next person.

In our society, a person's future earning power is dependent upon his or her ability.

6. If one knows how to deal with people, they are really quite easily led.

I have little influence over the way other people behave.

7.The grades I make are the result of my own efforts; luck has little or nothing to do

with it.

Sometimes I feel that I have little to do with the grades I get.

8.People like me can change the course of world affairs if we make ourselves heard.

It is only wishful thinking to believe that one can readily influence what happens inour society.

9. A great deal that happens to me is probably a matter of chance.

I am the master of my fate.

10.Getting along with people is a skill that must be practiced.

It is almost impossible to figure out how to please some people.

38

HOW FLEXIBLE AM I?Indicate the degree to which you think the following statements are true or falseby selecting one of the following choices:Certainly, always trueGenerally trueSomewhat true, but with exceptionsSomewhat false, but with exceptionsGenerally falseCertainly, always false

1. In social situations, I have the ability to alter my behavior if I feel thatsomething else is called for.

2. I am often able to read people's true emotions correctly through theireyes.

3. I have the ability to control the way I come across to people, dependingon the impression I wish to give them.

4. In conversations, I am sensitive to even the slightest change in the facialexpression of the person I'm conversing with.

5. My powers of intuition are quite good when it c omes to understandingothers' emotions and motives.

6. I can usually tell when others consider a joke in bad taste, even thoughthey may laugh convincingly.

7. When I feel that the image I am portraying isn't working, I can readilychange it to something that does.

8. I can usually tell when I've said something inappropriate by reading thelistener's eyes.

9. I have trouble changing my behavior to suit different people and differentsituations.

10. I have found that I can adjust my behavior to meet the requiremen ts ofany situation I find myself in.

11. If someone is lying to me, I usually know it at once from that person'smanner of expression.

12. Even when it might be to my advantage, I have difficulty putting up a goodfront.

13. Once I know what the situation calls for, it's easy for me to regulate myactions accordingly.

39

HOW PROACTIVE AM I?Respond to each statement by indicating the extent to which you agree ordisagree with them. Use the following rating scale for your responses:Strong disagreeModerately disagreeSlightly disagreeNeither agree or disagreeSlightly agreeModerately agreeStrongly agree

1. I am constantly on the lookout for new ways to improve my life.

2. I feel driven to make a difference in my community, and maybe the world.

3. I tend to let others take the initiative to start new projects.

4. Wherever I have been, I have been a powerful force for constructivechange.

5. I enjoy facing and overcoming obstacles to my ideas.

6. Nothing is more exciting than seeing my ideas turn into real ity.

7. If I see something I don't like, I fix it.

8. No matter what the odds, if I believe in something I will make it happen.

9. I love being a champion for my ideas, even against others' opposition.

10. I excel at identifying opportunities.

11. I am always looking for better ways to do things.

12. If I believe in an idea, no obstacle will prevent me from making it happen.

13. I love to challenge the status quo.

14. When I have a problem, I tackle it head -on.

15. I am great at turning problems into opportunities.

16. I can spot a good opportunity long before others can.

17. If I see someone in trouble, I help out in any way I can.

40

HOW WELL DO I HANDLE AMBIGUITY?Respond to each of the following statements by indicating the extent towhich you agree or disagree with th em.Strong disagreeModerately disagreeSlightly disagreeNeither agree or disagreeSlightly agreeModerately agreeStrongly agree

1. An expert who doesn't come up with a definite answer probablydoesn't know too much.

Select an Option

2. I would like to live in a foreign country for a while.Select an Option

3. The sooner we all acquire similar values and ideals, the better.Select an Option

4. A good teacher is one who makes you wonder a bout your way oflooking at things.

Select an Option

5. I like parties where I know most of the people more than oneswhere all or most of the people are complete strangers.

Select an Option

6. Teachers or supervisors who hand out vague assignments give achance for one to show initiative and originality.

Select an Option

7. A person who leads an even, regular life in which few surprises orunexpected happenings arise really has a lot to be grateful f or.

Select an Option

8. Many of our most important decisions are based on insufficientinformation.

Select an Option

9. There is really no such thing as a problem that can't be solved.Select an Option

10.People who fit their lives to a schedule probably miss most of thejoy of living.

Select an Option

11.A good job is one in which what is to be done and how it is to bedone are always clear.

Select an Option

41

12. It is more fun to tackle a complicated problem than to solve a simpleone.

Select an Option

13. In the long run, it is possible to get more done by tackling small,simple problems than large and complicated ones.

Select an Option

14.Often the most interesting and stimulating people are those whodon't mind being different and original.

Select an Option

15.What we are used to is always preferable to what is unfamiliar.Select an Option

16.People who insist upon a yes or no answer just don't know howcomplicated things really are.

Select an Option

42

HOW CREATIVE AM I?Review the 30 adjectives that follow. Being honest and forthright wit h youranswers, identify only those items that accurately describe you:

affected intelligent

capable inventive

cautious mannerly

clever narrow interests

commonplace original

confident reflective

conservative resourceful

conventional self-confident

dissatisfied sexy

egotistical sincere

honest snobbish

humorous submissive

individualistic suspicious

informal unconventional

insightful wide interests

43

AM I a TYPE-A?Identify the number on the scale that best characterizes your behavior foreach trait.

Casual aboutappointments 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Never late

Not competitive 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Verycompetitive

Never feelrushed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Always feelrushed

Take things oneat a time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Try to domany things atonce

Slow doingthings 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Fast (eating,walking, etc.)

Expressfeelings 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

"Sit on"feelings

Many interests 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Few interestsoutside work

44

WHAT DO I VALUE?Listed below are two sets of statements. The first list presents 10 terminalvalues. These are desirable end-states of existence. Think of them asgoals that you might like to achieve during your lifetime. The second listpresents 10 instrumental values. These are preferable modes of behavior,or means of achieving the terminal values.For each list, rank the statements according to how important each is toyou personally. Score a "1" next to the value that is most important, a "2"next to the second most important, and so forth. Treat each list separately.Terminal Values

0Happiness; satisfaction in life

0Knowledge and wisdom

0Peace and harmony in the world

0Pride in accomplishment

0Prosperity; wealth

0Lasting friendships

0Recognition from peers

0Salvation; finding eternal life

0Security; freedom from threat

0Self-respect

Instrumental Values0

Assertiveness; standing up for yourself0

Being helpful or caring toward others0

Dependability; being counted upon by others0

Education and intellectual pursuits0

Hard work and achievement0

Obedience; following the wishes of others0

Open-mindedness; receptivity to new ideas0

Self-sufficiency; independence0

Truthfulness; honesty0

Being well-mannered and courteous toward others

45

HOW INVOLVED AM I IN MY JOB?Below are ten statements each of which you may agree or disagree withdepending on your personal evaluation of your present job. Pleaseindicate the degree of your agreement or disagreement with eachstatement using the following scale:1 = Strongly disagree2 = Disagree3 = Mildly disagree4 = Mildly agree5 = Agree6 = Strongly agree

1. The most important things that happen to me involve my pr esentjob.

Make a Selection

2. To me, my job is only a small part of who I am.Make a Selection

3. I am very much involved personally in my job.Make a Selection

4. I live, eat, and breathe my job.Make a Selection

5. Most of my interests are centered around my job.Make a Selection

6. I have very strong ties with my present job which would be verydifficult to break.

Make a Selection

7. Usually I feel detached from my job.Make a Selection

8. Most of my personal life goals are job -oriented.Make a Selection

9. I consider my job to be very central to my existence.Make a Selection

10. I like to be absorbed in my job most of the time.Make a Selection

46

HOW SATISFIED AM I WITH MY JOB?For the 20 items on this questionnaire, select your response from one ofthe following:1 = Very dissatisfied2 = Dissatisfied3 = I can't decide whether I am satisfied or not4 = Satisfied5 = Very satisfiedOn my present job, this is how I feel about:

1. Being able to keep busy all the time.

1 2 3 4 52. The chance to work alone on the job.

1 2 3 4 53. The chance to do different things from time to time.

1 2 3 4 54. The chance to be "somebody" in the community.

1 2 3 4 55. The way my boss handles his/her workers.

1 2 3 4 56. The competence of my supervisor in making decisions.

1 2 3 4 57. Being able to do things that don't go against my conscience.

1 2 3 4 58. The way my job provides for steady employment.

1 2 3 4 59. The chance to do things for other people.

1 2 3 4 510.The chance to tell people what to do.

1 2 3 4 511.The chance to do something that makes use of my abilities.

1 2 3 4 512.The way company policies are put into practice.

1 2 3 4 513.My pay and the amount of work I do.

1 2 3 4 514.The chances for advancement on this j ob.

1 2 3 4 5

47

15.The freedom to use my own judgment.

1 2 3 4 516.The chance to try my own methods of doing the job.

1 2 3 4 517.The working conditions.

1 2 3 4 518.The way my coworkers get along with each other.

1 2 3 4 519.The praise I get for doing a good job.

1 2 3 4 520.The feeling of accomplishment I get from my job.

1 2 3 4 5

48

WHAT'S MY ATTITUDE TOWARD ACHIEVEMENT?Using the following scale, select the answer that best expresses youropinion on each of the 20 questions. Try to minimize the use of answer #4.1 = I disagree very much2 = I disagree on the whole3 = I disagree a little4 = In between or don't know5 = I agree a little6 = I agree on the whole7 = I agree very much

1. People who are very successful deserve all the rewards they get fortheir achievements.

1 2 3 4 5 6 72. It's good to see very successful people fail occasionally.

1 2 3 4 5 6 73. Very successful people often get too big for their boots.

1 2 3 4 5 6 74. People who are very successful in what they do are usually friendly

and helpful to others.

1 2 3 4 5 6 75. At school it's probably better for students to be near the middle of

the class than the very top student.

1 2 3 4 5 6 76. People shouldn't criticize or knock the very successful.

1 2 3 4 5 6 77. Very successful people who fall from the top usually deserve their

fall from grace.

1 2 3 4 5 6 78. Those who are very successful ought to come down off their

pedestals and be like other people.

1 2 3 4 5 6 79. The very successful person should receive public recognition for

his/her accomplishments.

1 2 3 4 5 6 710.People who are very successful should be cut down to size.

1 2 3 4 5 6 711.One should always respect the person at the top.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

49

12.One ought to be sympathetic to very successful people when theyexperience failure and fall from their very high positions.

1 2 3 4 5 6 713.Very successful people sometimes need to be brought back a peg

or two, even if they have done nothing wrong.

1 2 3 4 5 6 714.Society needs a lot of very high achievers.

1 2 3 4 5 6 715.People who always do a lot better than others need to learn what

it's like to fail.

1 2 3 4 5 6 716.People who are right at the top usually deserve their high position.

1 2 3 4 5 6 717. It's very important for society to support and encourage people who

are very successful.

1 2 3 4 5 6 718.People who are very successful get too full of t heir own importance.

1 2 3 4 5 6 719.Very successful people usually succeed at the expense of other

people.

1 2 3 4 5 6 720.Very successful people who are at the top of their field are usually

fun to be with.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

50

WHAT MOTIVATES ME?Indicate how important each of the following is in the job you would like toget. Use the five-point scale for your responses.1 = Not important2 = Slightly important3 = Moderately important4 = Very important5 = Extremely important

1. Cooperative relations with my coworkers.Select an Option

2. Developing new skills and knowledge at work.Select an Option

3. Good pay for my work.Select an Option

4. Being accepted by others.Select an Option

5. Opportunity for independent thought and action.Select an Option

6. Frequent raises in paySelect an Option

7. Opportunity to develop close friendships at work.Select an Option

8. A sense of self-esteem.Select an Option

9. A complete fringe-benefit program.Select an Option

10.Openness and honesty with my coworkers.Select an Option

11.Opportunities for personal growth and development.Select an Option

12.A sense of security from bodily harm.Select an Option

51

WHAT REWARDS DO I VALUE MOST?Below are ten work-related rewards. For each, identify the number thatbest describes the value that a particular reward has for you personally.Use the following scale to express your feelings:1 = No value at all2 = Slight value3 = Moderate value4 = Great value5 = Extremely great value

1. Good pay

1 2 3 4 52. Prestigious title

1 2 3 4 53. Vacation time

1 2 3 4 54. Job security

1 2 3 4 55. Recognition

1 2 3 4 56. Interesting work

1 2 3 4 57. Pleasant conditions

1 2 3 4 58. Chances to advance

1 2 3 4 59. Flexible schedule

1 2 3 4 510.Friendly coworkers

1 2 3 4 5

52

WHAT'S MY VIEW ON THE NATURE OF PEOPLE?Indicate your agreement or disagreement with each of the eightstatements using the following scale:

Strongly disagreeDisagreeundicidedAgreeStrongly agree

1. The average human being prefers to be directed, wishes to avoidresponsibility, and has relatively little ambition.

Select an Option

2. Most people can acquire leadership skills regardless of theirparticular inborn traits and abilities.

Select an Option

3. The use of rewards (for example, pay and promotion) andpunishment (for example, failure to promote) is the best way to getsubordinates to do their work.

Select an Option

4. In a work situation, if the subordinate can influence you, you losesome influence over them.

Select an Option

5. A good leader gives detailed and complete instructions tosubordinates rather than giving them merely general directions anddepending on their initiative to work out the details.

Select an Option

6. Individual goal setting offers advantages that cannot be obtained bygroup goal setting, because groups do not set high goals.

Select an Option

7. A superior should give subordinates only the information necessaryfor them to do their immediate tasks.

Select an Option

8. The superior's influence over subordinates in an organization isprimarily economic.

Select an Option

53

HOW SENSITIVE AM I TO EQUITY DIFFERENCES?The four statements ask what you' d like your relationship to be with anyorganization for which you might work. For each, divide 10 points betweenthe two answers (A and B) by giving the most points to the answer that ismost like you and the fewest points to the answer least like you. Yo u can,if you like, give the same number of points to both answers. And you canuse zeros if you'd like. Just be sure to use all 10 points on each question.Insert your points next to each letter.In any organization where I might work:

1. It would be more important for me to:A. Help others 0

B. Watch out for my own good 0

2.3. I would be more concerned about:

A. What I received from the organization 0

B. What I contributed to the organization 0

4.5. The hard work I would do should:

A. Benefit the organization 0

B. Benefit me 0

6.7. My personal philosophy in dealing with the organization would be:

A. If you don't look out for yourself,nobody else will

0

B. It's better to give than to receive 0

8.9. It would be more important for me to:

A. Get from the organization 0

B. Give to the organization 0

54

WHAT'S MY DECISION-MAKING STYLE?For each of the statements below, select the one altern ative that bestdescribes how you see yourself in your typical work situation.

1. I enjoy jobs that:Select an Option

2. In my job, I look for:Select an Option

3. When faced with solving a problem, I:Select an Option

4. When using information, I prefer:Select an Option

5. I am especially good at:Select an Option

6. When time is important, I:Select an Option

7. I work well with those who are:Select an Option

8. Others consider me:Select an Option

9. My decisions typically are:Select an Option

55

HOW INTUITIVE AM I?For each of the following questions , select the response that first appealsto you.

1. When working on a project, I prefer to:a. be told what the problem is, but left free to decide how to

solve it.

b. get very clear instructions about how to go about solving theproblem before I start.2. When working on a project, I prefer to work with colleagueswho are:

a. realistic.

b. imaginative.3. I admire people most who are:

a. creative.

b. careful.4. The friends I choose tend to be:

a. serious and hard working.

b. exciting and often emotional.5. When I ask a colleague for advice on a problem I have, I:

a. seldom or never get upset if he/she questions my basicassumptions.

b. often get upset if he/she questions my basic assumptions.6. When I start my day, I usually:

a. seldom make or follow a specific plan.

b. make a plan first to follow.7. When working with numbers, I find that I:

a. seldom or never make factual errors.

b. often make factual errors.8. I find that I:

a. seldom daydream during the day and really don't enjoy doingso when I do it.

b. frequently daydream during the day and enjoy doing so.9. When working on a problem I:

a. prefer to follow the instructio ns or rules when they are givento me.

b. often enjoy circumventing the instructions or rules when theyare given to me.

56

10. When I try to put something together, I prefer to have:a. step-by-step written instructions on how to assemble the

item.

b. a picture of how the item is supposed to look onceassembled.11. I find that the person who irritates me the most is the onewho appears to be:

a. disorganized.

b. organized.12. When an unexpected crisis comes up that I have to dealwith, I:

a. feel anxious about the situation.

b. feel excited by the challenge of the situation.

57

HOW DO MY ETHICS RATE?Indicate your level of agreement with these 15 statements using thefollowing scale:1 = Strongly disagree2 = Disagree3 = Neither agree or disagree4 = Agree5 = Strongly agree

1. The only moral of business is making money.

1 2 3 4 52. A person who is doing well in business does not have to worry

about moral problems.

1 2 3 4 53. Act according to the law, and you can't go wrong morally.

1 2 3 4 54. Ethics in business is basically an adjustment between expectations

and the ways people behave.

1 2 3 4 55. Business decisions involve a realistic economic attitude and not a

moral philosophy.

1 2 3 4 56. "Business ethics" is a concept for public relations only.

1 2 3 4 57. Competitiveness and profitability are important values.

1 2 3 4 58. Conditions of a free economy will best serve the needs of society.

Limiting competition can only hurt society and actually violatesbasic natural laws.

1 2 3 4 59. As a consumer, when making an auto insurance claim, I try to get

as much as possible regardless of the extent of the damage.

1 2 3 4 510.While shopping at the supermarket, it is appropriate to switch price

tags on packages.

1 2 3 4 511.As an employee, I can take home office supplies; it doesn't hurt

anyone.

1 2 3 4 5

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12. I view sick days as vacation days that I deserve.

1 2 3 4 513.Employees' wages should be determined according to the laws of

supply and demand.

1 2 3 4 514.The business world has its own rules.

1 2 3 4 515.A good businessperson is a successful businessperson.

1 2 3 4 5

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WHAT'S MY EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE SCORE?Indicate your level of agreement with these ten statements using thefollowing scale:Strongly disagreeDisagreeNeither agree or disagreeAgreeStrongly agree

1. I am usually aware-from moment to moment-of my feelings as theychange.

Select an Option

2. I act before I think.Select an Option

3. When I want something, I want it NOW!Select an Option

4. I bounce back quickly from life's setbacks.Select an Option

5. I can pick up subtle social cues that indicate others' needs or wants.Select an Option

6. I'm very good at handling myself in social situations.Select an Option

7. I'm persistent in going after the things I want.Select an Option

8. When people share their problems with me, I'm good at puttingmyself in their shoes.

Select an Option

9. When I'm in a bad mood, I make a strong effort to get out of it.Select an Option

10. I can find common ground and build rapport with people from allwalks of life.

Select an Option

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WHAT TIME OF DAY AM I MOST PRODUCTIVE?FIndicate the response for each item that best describes you.

1. Considering only your own "feeling best" rhythm, at what timewould you get up if you were entirely free to plan your day?

a. 5:00-6:30 a.m.

b. 6:30-7:45 a.m.

c. 7:45-9:45 a.m.

d. 9:45-11:00 a.m.

e. 11:00 a.m.-12:00 (noon)2. Considering only your "feeling best" rhythm, at what time wouldyou go to bed if you were entirely free to plan your evening?

a. 8:00-9:00 p.m.

b. 9:00-10:15 p.m.

c. 10:15 p.m.-12:30 a.m.

d. 12:30-1:45 a.m.

e. 1:45-3:00 a.m.3. Assuming normal circumstances, how easy do you find getting upin the morning?

a. Not at all easy

b. Slightly easy

c. Fairly easy

d. Very easy4. How alert do you feel during the first half hour after you wake up inthe morning?

a. Not at all alert

b. Slightly alert

c. Fairly alert

d. Very alert5. During the first half hour after awakening in the morning, how tireddo you feel?

a. Very tired

b. Fairly tired

c. Fairly refreshed

d. Very refreshed

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6. You have decided to engage in some physical exercise. A friendsuggests that you do this one hour, twice a week and the best timefor him is 7:00-8:00 a.m. Bearing in mind nothing else but your own"feeling best" rhythm, how do you think you would perform?

a. Would be in good form

b. Would be in reasonable form

c. Would find it difficult

d. Would find it very difficult7. At what time in the evening do you feel tired and, as a result, inneed of sleep?

a. 8:00-9:00 p.m.

b. 9:00-10:15 p.m.

c. 10:15 p.m.-12:30 a.m.

d. 12:30-1:45 a.m.

e. 1:45-3:00 a.m.8. You wish to be at your peak performance for a test which youknow is going to be mentally exhausting and will last for two hours.You are entirely free to plan your day, and considering only your own"feeling best" rhythm, which ONE of the four testing time s would youchoose?

a. 8:00-10:00 a.m.

b. 11:00 a.m.-1:00 p.m.

c. 3:00-5:00 p.m.

d. 7:00-9:00 p.m.9. One hears about "morning" and "evening" types of people. WhichONE of these types do you consider yourself to be?

a. Definitely a morning type

b. More a morning than an evening type

c. More an evening than a morning type

d. Definitely an evening type10. When would you prefer to rise (provided you have a full day'swork-8 hours) if you were totally free to arran ge your time?

a. Before 6:30 a.m.

b. 6:30-7:30 a.m.

c. 7:30-8:30 a.m.

d. 8:30 a.m. or later11. If you always had to rise at 6:00 a.m., what do you think it would

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be like?a. Very difficult and unpleasant

b. Rather difficult and unpleasant

c. A little unpleasant but no great problem

d. Easy and not unpleasant12. How long does it usually take you before you "recover yoursenses" in the morning after rising from a night's sleep?

a. 0-10 minutes

b. 11-20 minutes

c. 21-40 minutes

d. More than 40 minutes13. Please indicate the extent you are a morning or evening act iveindividual.

a. Pronounced morning active (morning alert and evening tired)

b. To some extent, morning active

c. To some extent, evening act ive

d. Pronounced evening active (morning tired and evening alert)

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HOW GOOD AM I AT PERSONAL PLANNING?Indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the 6 statements asthey relate to your school and personal life. Use the following scale torecord your answers:1 = Strongly disagree2 = Disagree3 = Neither agree or disagree4 = Agree5 = Strongly agree

1. I am proactive rather than reactive.

1 2 3 4 52. I set aside enough time and resources to study and complete

projects.

1 2 3 4 53. I am able to budget money to buy the things I really want without

going broke.

1 2 3 4 54. I have thought through what I want to do in school.

1 2 3 4 55. I have a plan for completing my major.

1 2 3 4 56. My goals for the future are realistic.

1 2 3 4 5

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AM I LIKELY TO BECOME AN ENTREPRENEUR?Respond to each of the 17 statements:

1. I am constantly on the lookout for new ways to improve my life.Select an Option

2. I feel driven to make a difference in my community, and maybe theworld.

Select an Option

3. I tend to let others take the initia tive to start new projects.Select an Option

4. Wherever I have been, I have been a powerful force for constructivechange.

Select an Option

5. I enjoy facing and overcoming obstacles to my ideas.Select an Option

6. Nothing is more exciting than seeing my ideas turn into reality.Select an Option

7. If I see something I don't like, I fit it.Select an Option

8. No matter what the odds, if I believe in something I will make ithappen.

Select an Option

9. I love being a champion for my ideas, even against others'opposition.

Select an Option

10. I excel at identifying opportunities.Select an Option

11. I am always looking for better ways to do things.Select an Option

12. If I believe in an idea, no obstacle will prevent me from making ithappen.

Select an Option

13. I love to challenge the status quo.Select an Option

14.When I have a problem, I tackle it head -on.Select an Option

15. I am great at turning problems into opportunities.Select an Option

16. I can spot a good opportunity long before others can.Select an Option

17. If I see someone in trouble, I help out in any way I can.Select an Option

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WHAT'S MY FACE-TO-FACE COMMUNICATION STYLE?Respond to each of the 45 statements using the following scale:+2 = Strongly agree+1 = Agree0 = Neither agree or disagree-1 = Disagree-2 = Strongly disagree

1. I am comfortable with all varieties of people.

+2 +1 0 -1 -22. I laugh easily.

+2 +1 0 -1 -23. I readily express admiration for others.

+2 +1 0 -1 -24. What I say usually leaves an impression on people.

+2 +1 0 -1 -25. I leave people with an impression of me which they definitely tend

to remember.

+2 +1 0 -1 -26. To be friendly, I habitually acknowledge verbally other's

contributions.

+2 +1 0 -1 -27. I have some nervous mannerisms in my speech.

+2 +1 0 -1 -28. I am a very relaxed communicator.

+2 +1 0 -1 -29. When I disagree with somebody, I am very quick to challenge them.

+2 +1 0 -1 -210. I can always repeat back to a person exactly what was meant.

+2 +1 0 -1 -211.The sound of my voice is very easy to recognize.

+2 +1 0 -1 -212. I leave a definite impression on people.

+2 +1 0 -1 -213.The rhythm or flow of my speech is sometimes affected by

nervousness.

+2 +1 0 -1 -214.Under pressure I come across as a relaxed speaker.

+2 +1 0 -1 -215.My eyes reflect exactly what I am feeling when I communicate.

+2 +1 0 -1 -2

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16. I dramatize a lot.

+2 +1 0 -1 -217.Usually, I deliberately react in such a way that people know that I

am listening to them.

+2 +1 0 -1 -218.Usually, I do not tell people much about myself until I get to know

them well.

+2 +1 0 -1 -219.Regularly, I tell jokes, anecdotes, and stories when I communicate.

+2 +1 0 -1 -220. I tend to constantly gesture when I communicate.

+2 +1 0 -1 -221. I am an extremely open communicator.

+2 +1 0 -1 -222. I am vocally a loud communicator.

+2 +1 0 -1 -223. In arguments I insist upon very precise definitions.

+2 +1 0 -1 -224. In most social situations I generally speak very frequently.

+2 +1 0 -1 -225. I like to be strictly accurate when I communicate.

+2 +1 0 -1 -226.Because I have a loud voice, I can easily break into a conversation.

+2 +1 0 -1 -227.Often I physically and vocally act out when I want to communicate.

+2 +1 0 -1 -228. I have an assertive voice.

+2 +1 0 -1 -229. I readily reveal personal things about myself.

+2 +1 0 -1 -230. I am dominant in social situations.

+2 +1 0 -1 -231. I am very argumentative.

+2 +1 0 -1 -232.Once I get wound up in a heated discussion I have a hard time

stopping myself.

+2 +1 0 -1 -2

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33. I am always an extremely friendly communicator.

+2 +1 0 -1 -234. I really like to listen very carefully to people.

+2 +1 0 -1 -235.Very often I insist that other people document or present some kind

of proof for what they are arguing.

+2 +1 0 -1 -236. I try to take charge of things when I am with people.

+2 +1 0 -1 -237. It bothers me to drop an argument that is not resolved.

+2 +1 0 -1 -238. In most social situations I tend to come on strong.

+2 +1 0 -1 -239. I am very expressive nonverbally in social situations.

+2 +1 0 -1 -240.The way I say something usually leaves an impression on people.

+2 +1 0 -1 -241.Whenever I communicate, I tend to be very encouraging to people.

+2 +1 0 -1 -242. I actively use a lot of facial expressions when I communicate.

+2 +1 0 -1 -243. I very frequently verbally exaggerate to emphasize a point.

+2 +1 0 -1 -244. I am an extremely attentive communicator.

+2 +1 0 -1 -245.As a rule, I openly express my feelings and emotions.

+2 +1 0 -1 -2

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HOW GOOD AM I AT GIVING FEEDBACK?

For each of the following pairs, identify the statement that most closelymatches what you normally do when you give feedback to someon e else.

1.a. Describe the behavior

b. Evaluate the behavior2.

a. Focus on the feelings that the behavior evokes

b. Tell the person what they should be doing differently3.

a. Give specific instances of the behavior

b. Generalize4.

a. Deal only with behavior that the person can control

b. Sometimes focus on something the person can do nothing about5.

a. Tell the person as soon as possible after the behavior

b. Sometimes wait too long6.

a. Focus on the effect the behavior has on me

b. Try to figure out why the individual did what he or she did7.

a. Balance negative feedback with positive feedback

b. Sometimes focus only on the negative8.

a. Do some soul searching to make sure that the reas on I am givingthe feedback is to help the other person or to strengthen our relationship

b. Sometimes give feedback to punish, win, or dominate the otherperson

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AM I A TEAM PLAYER?Use the following scale to identify the extent of your agreement with the 20statements:

1. Only those who depend on themselves get ahead in life.Select an Option

2. To be superior, a person must stand alone.Select an Option

3. If you want something done right, you've got to do it yourself.Select an Option

4. What happens to me is my own doing.Select an Option

5. In the long run the only person you can count on is yourself.Select an Option

6. Winning is everything.Select an Option

7. I feel that winning is important in both work and games.Select an Option

8. Success is the most important thing in life.Select an Option

9. It annoys me when other people perform better than I do.Select an Option

10.Doing your best isn't enough; it is important to win.Select an Option

11. I prefer to work with others in a group rather t han working alone.Select an Option

12.Given the choice, I would rather do a job where I can work alonerather than doing a job where I have to work with others in a group.

Select an Option

13.Working with a group is better than working alone.Select an Option

14.People should be made aware that if they are going to be part of agroup then they are sometimes going to have to do things they don?t want to do.

Select an Option

15.People who belong to a group should realize that they re not alwaysgoing to get what they personally want.

Select an Option

16.People in a group should realize that they sometimes are going tohave to make sacrifices for the sake of the gro up as a whole.

Select an Option

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17.People in a group should be willing to make sacrifices for the sakeof the groups well?being.

Select an Option

18.A group is most productive when its members do what they want todo rather than what the group wants them to do.

Select an Option

19.A group is most efficient when its members do what they think isbest rather than doing what the group wants them to do.

Select an Option

20.A group is most productive when its members follow their owninterests and concerns.

Select an Option

Penulis

Setyabudi Indartono

71

Lahir di Purwokwero, 20 juli 1972.Menyelesaikan studi SD hingga SMA diBanjarnegara Jawa Tengah. Kemudianmelanjutkan studi S1 di Teknis SipilUniversitas Gadjahmada dan S2 di MagisterManajemen di Universitas yang sama.

Pernah bekerja di PT Freeport Indonesia sebagai senior fasilitator/trainer,

kemudian Direktur Umum dan Keuangan Rumah Sa kit PKU

Muhammadiyyah Bantul. Menjadi Direktur Cabang LMT Trustco sejak

1998. Kemudian menjadi Staf Pengajar/Dosen Manajeman di Universitas

Negeri Yogyakarta. Beberapa tuliusan yang pernah ditulis adalah: Steel

Structure Design of PT FI apartments with St aad III Software (1995),

Construction Management of PT FI (1997), Justice Party direct Selling

(2000), Management Behavior : Mentoring as Solution (2000), Business

Research Method: Memory Research (2000),Yogyakarta Islamic Hospital:

Managing Performance (2000), Yayasan Bina Sehat: Organization Change

and Developmet as a priority need (2000), Human Resource Management:

Sociaty central health Bantul Yogyakarta (2000),Organization Design of

Region Directorate of Justice Party of Yogyakarta (2000), PT KPI

Tembagapura Compensation applications (2000), SWOT (2003), Advance

SWOT (2003), Modul TFT Trustco (2004), Leadership (2005), Training For

Beginer (2005), Smart Trainer (2005), Strategic trainer (2005), Decition

Making (UNY, 2005), Operation Research (UNY, 2004) , QSB+ (UNY, 2006),

Marketing Advance (UNY, 2005), Lembaga Keuangan (UNY, 2005),

Tinggal dengan seorang Istri, dr. Yayuk Soraya, dan tiga anak laki -

lakinya, Aiman Hilmi Asaduddin (1999), Rofiq Wafi’ Muhammad (2001),

dan Muhammad Kaisan Haedar (2004) di Jl Arwana No 7 Minomartani.

Bisa dihubungi di 08157934565, dan setyabudihrm@telkom.net,

Setyabudi_Indartono@uny.ac.id