Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

V. Ramaswamy

Director, NOAA/ Oceans and Atmospheric Research/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Prediction of Climate Extremes for Decision-making

Modeling Science, Technology & Innovation Conference[Washington DC, May 17, 2016]

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 2

Weather/ Climate events have had widespread impacts on society

Life and Property

Aviation Maritime Space Operations

Forests

Emergency Management

Commerce Ports Energy Hydropower

Reservoir Control

Infrastructure Construction Agriculture Recreation

Ecosystems Health Environment

Changing Conditions Changing Conditions

Accurate, Regional Predictions/Projections: Societal Information across Diverse Sectors

Careful preparations are required to seize opportunities, and minimize risks and vulnerabilities

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 4

“End-to-End” Observations, Monitoring, and Modeling Weather-to-Climate Predictions

Research

Development

Transition

Alignment of Strategy

5 NOAA Research: Serving Society Through Science

OAR Strategic Plan

Research

Development

Transition

Research

Development

Transition

Research

Development

Transition

OAR Strategic Plan

Research

Development

Transition

Research

Development

Transition

OAR Strategic Plan

Research

Development

Transition

OAR Strategic Plan

Research

Development

Transition

CLI

MA

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WEA

THER

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CO

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e.g. Disaster management planning and response

e.g. Crop Selection, Water management

e.g. Infrastructure development

What information is needed for decisions? Timely, credible, useful - across all time scales

Mid-Range Predictions

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CLIMATE 15 days 0 days 2 mo 3 mo Lead Time 30 days

Pred

icta

bilit

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WEATHER 15 days 30 days15 days 30 days

Hurricane Track Forecasts (out to 5 days)

Public Gridded Forecasts

(out to 7 days) Temp/Precip Outlooks (1 & 3 Months)

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Prediction of Extremes: It is Math and requires Computations!

Elements of the Prediction System

1. GLOBAL OBSERVATIONS Atmosphere and ocean observations across globe.

2. DYNAMICAL MODEL Solving mathematical formulations of the processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system, using NOAA’s High-Performance Computers.

3. DATA ASSIMILATION Combines sparse observations with model, to estimate present state, using the dynamical model.

4. ANALYSIS & DISSEMINATION Output from predictions, produce “useful” information, communicating predictions.

Image sources: NOAA/PMEL and Argo.ucsd.edu

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Tornado warning lead-times have not improved in 10 years!

Appear to have reached the limit for our current

technologies and science….

NSSL developed the basis for the NWS’ NEXRAD (WSR-88D) radar. Between 1992 and 2004, NEXRAD produced a societal benefit >$3 billion

(vs. $1.7B NEXRAD cost)

Average = 13 minutes

Next Generation High Impact Weather Warnings (FACETs* Concept)

• Detailed forecast tornado probabilities (colored areas) provided by NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast ensemble

• More advanced notice using rapidly updated models and less overwarning compared to standard warnings

• Refined, user-specific info provided on modern technology (updated every 2 minutes)

• Driven by research in meteorological and social science

• Benefits to NWS, FEMA, private sector developers, public safety

Be Alert!

Very Close! Very Very

Close!

Over-warned Advanced

Notice

Take Cover Now! Tornado Track

*Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats

Increasing number of model gridcells improves ability to simulate rainfall over land in North America (and globally)

Obs.

Low-res. Model (2007)

High-res. Model (2012)

(costs 24x)

Very High-res. Model (2015)

(costs 144x)

Duration # Events/yr # Heat wave days/yr

Midwest 1.5 2.7 4.0 Northern Plains 1.3 3.8 4.8

Pacific Northwest 1.3 2.4 3.0 SE Canada 1.2 2.5 2.9

Texas-Oklahoma 1.8 2.6 4.5 Mid-Atlantic 1.4 2.7 3.8

California 1.9 2.3 4.3 Gulf Coast 1.2 3.2 4.0 Southwest 2.2 2.9 6.4

Wyoming/Montana/ Idaho

2.2 2.6 5.7

Model Projections of Heat Waves

Ratio: 2041-2070 to 1971-2000 Climate Change Scenario (RCP 4.5)

Input Natl Climate Assessment

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble

NMME - An unprecedented multi-model system to improve seasonal climate prediction

• Based on leading climate models in the US and Canada

• Research supported by NOAA

and other US agencies.

• Participating Organizations• NOAA/NCEP • NOAA/GFDL • NASA/GMAO • NCAR • Environment Canada • U. Miami • IRI • COLA

Developing ENSO forecast Winter 2014 – 2mo lead

NMME-based Drought Prediction NMME is being applied as a core element of a

drought prediction system

Standard Precipitation Index – 3 month outlook

SPI: A statistical method for calculating rainfall anomalies. (Real-time verification of SPI, as well as precipitation and temperature, is found on the Climate Prediction Center Website: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

Vulnerability + Exposure interact with climate change to produce added Risk

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Exposure: Being in the wrong place at the wrong time Vulnerability:

The predisposition of a person or group to be adversely affected

RISK

Growth in exposure to current 100-yr coastal flooding by 2070 – all 3 factors

matter

Hanson at al Climatic Change 2011

Modest amount of sea level rise

can yield a huge impact

SIRR 2013

NOAA Operations: US, territories, treaty support.

Weather: land (US), coastal oceans/fisheries Climate: global atmosphere, oceans, land,

cryosphere, stratosphere Research to further that mission

Operations: US, territories, treaty support.Weather: land (US), coastal oceans/fisheries

Climate: global atmosphere, oceans, land,

DoD (Navy/AF) Operations: Global tactical and strategic support (including to DoS for National Security Planning) Weather: Ship, aircraft, installation, deployment

support including targeting Ocean: surface to bottom globally

Land: trafficability Near-space: communications

Research to further these missions DoE

Research: Climate modeling to determine impacts, possible mitigation of climate change. Requires

integrated air, ocean, land, ice and biogeochemical capabilities

Near-space: communicationsResearch to further these missions

Research: Climate modeling to determine impacts, possible mitigation of climate change. Requires

integrated air, ocean, land, ice and

NASA Climate modeling to investigate climate sensitivity

IRT multiple forcings Satellite remote sensing coverage/new data

types/data assimilation techniques for extended range prediction

NSF Discovery-driven research in geosciences (air,

ocean, land, ice) plus science drivers, which include data assimilation, predictability science, and

observation network design and utility, for NSCI-driven next generation HPC architectures

Intersection: world-wide observations and global coupled air-ocean-land-ice

model capability encompassing processes in tropical-mid-latitude-polar teleconnections that are

key to prediction of high-impact events over the U.S. and around the

world

Agency Roles and Responsibilities

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The Rising Demand for Climate Information

THERE IS AN URGENT AND GROWING NEED FOR RELIABLE, TRUSTED, TRANSPARENT, AND TIMELY CLIMATE INFORMATION ACROSS ALL SECTORS OF OUR ECONOMY.

RECREATION

HYDROPOWER

COMMERCE

FARMING

COASTS

ECOSYSTEMS

HEALTH

PRIVATE SECTOR

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

The END

Thank you for your attention!