IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

TM2 Summary WG1: Assessment and Decision Making for NORM

and Nuclear Legacy Sites

Ming Zhu, Ph.D., PE, PMP U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Environmental Management

Presented to MODARIA II Second Technical Meeting

3 November 2017

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Participation in WG1 Breakout Sessions

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30-Oct-17 31-Oct-17 1-Nov-17 2-Nov-17Total 22 28 18 23In PersonIAEA 1 1 1Belgium 2 2 2 2Brazil 1 1 1 1Bulgaria 1 1Canada 2 1China 3 3 1 2Demark 1 1Gabon 1 1 1 1Ghana 1 1 1Japan 1 1Madagesc 1 1 1 1Russia 1 1 1 1Singapore 1Slovenia 2 2 2UK 1 2 1 2Ukraine 1 1 1 1USA 6 6 5 7Via WebEx 2Belgium 1Canada 1

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WG1 Participation in Plenary/Joint Sessions

3

Plenary presentation by Eduardo Figeira da Silva (Brazil) on Uranium mining and legacy waste sites in Brazil; potential addition to the case studies, 31 Oct. 2017

Joint Session with WG3 and WG5 to discuss biota modeling for Case Studies, 31 Oct. 2017

RESRAD-Offsite Training by Charley Yu (USA), 1 Nov. 2017 Demonstration by Paul and Kelly Black (USA) of use of

Guided Interactive Statistical Decision Tools (GiSdT) for stakeholder-engaged structured decision-making at this Meeting, on Thursday, 3 Nov. 2017

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WG1 Presentations

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Ming Zhu (USA), Recap from MODARIA II WG1 IM1, 30 Oct. 2017

Hongtu Sun (China), NORM site in Yunan, China; potential addition to the case studies, 30 Oct. 2017

Adrian Punt (UK), Application of PC-CREAM for modelling uranium discharges to a small water course, 30 Oct. 2017

David Copplestone (UK), Integration/harmonization with ICRP Task Group 105, 30 Oct. 2017

Stephane Pepin (Belgium), Input Dataset for the Tesserderlo Test Case, 30 Oct. 2017

Daria Koliabina (Ukraine), Input Dataset for the Zapadnoe Test Case, 30 Oct. 2017

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WG1 Presentations (ctd)

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Jeff Whicker (USA), Modelling of Resuspension: Prediction and Validation of Radioactive Dust Emissions from Contaminated Areas, 31 Oct. 2017

Ming Zhu (USA), Update from P&RA CoP Technical Exchange Meeting, 1 Nov. 2017

Tamara Yankovich (IAEA), Update on MODARIA I WG1 Report, 1 Nov. 2017

Haruko Wainwright (USA), Modeling Support for Monitoring Strategies; In Situ Sensors and Climatic Controls, 2 Nov. 2017

Nasser Shubayr (USA), Study of Chemical and Radiation Risk Assessment Methods for the US EPA and the EA of the UK, 2 Nov. 2017

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Sites Selected for Case Studies

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Tessenderlo Phosphate Processing Site Belgium

Zapadnoe Tailings Site Ukraine

Former NORM Facility in São Paulo Brazil

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Tessenderlo (TCH) Phosphate Processing Site, Belgium

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Site locations: The facilities (orange); sludge basin (dark blue); waste water buffer basin (light blue); landfill (green); out of operation (dashed); discharge points to the rivers (yellow)

Sludge pond at the Kepkensberg site

Ra-226 contamination in the Winterbeek River

TCH Phosphate Processing Facility

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Tessenderlo Site Case Study Problem definition, Scenario description, and Input dataset (25 Oct. 2017) Scenario 1. Residual contamination in the flood zone of the Winterbeek River Scenario 2. Impact of the Kepkensberg disposal facility: a. “Normal” Evolution;

b. Intrusion Review geochemical conditions for parameter selection (15 Jan. 2018) RESRAD and NORMALYSA models for all scenarios: Runs complete; investigating

differences Improved model-model comparison

Task 1: Model set up and initial runs for Scenario 2.a (15 Jan. 2018) GOLDSIM; DCC Calculator Task 2: Model-model comparison (TBD before IM2)

Model-data comparison (TBD at IM2) Radionuclide transport in the Winterbeek River

Task 1: Model set up, input parameters, initial runs (15 Jan. 2018) PC CREAM adaptation and application; Comparison to NORMALYSA

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Tessenderlo Site Case Study

Biosphere exposure assessment for Winterbeek Task 1: Model set up, input parameters, initial runs BIOSPHERE (15 Feb. 2018) GOLDSIM (15 Feb. 2018) NORMALYSA RESRAD

• Evaluate possibility for demonstrating the use of GiSdT for different risk drivers (Cd, radionuclides, etc) (15 Feb. 2018)

• Evaluate datasets for potential biota doses assessment (15 Dec. 2017)

• Evaluation of Cd vs. radionuclides for decision making (15 Dec. 2017)

• Monitoring strategy to help define end state (15 Feb. 2018)

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Zapadnoe Tailings Site, Ukraine

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Location of Zapadnoe tailings

Distribution of Rn-222 flux (mBq/m2/s) from the surface of Zapadnoe tailings in September 2009

Zapadnoe Tailings Site Ukraine

Pridneprovsky Uranium Legacy Site, Ukraine, where the Zapadnoe Tailings Site is located

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Zapadnoe Tailings Site Case Study

Problem description, Scenario description, and Input dataset(s) (30 Oct. 2017)

Scenario 1: Worker Exposure

Scenario 2: Radionuclide Transport in GW to the Konoplyanka River

Scenario 3: Transport to the Konoplyanka and Dniper Rivers

Review geochemical conditions for parameter selection (15 Jan. 2018)11

Additional transport modelling to compare to the MODARIA & NORMALYSA calculations for same initial conditions

Task 1: Model set up & initial runs for Scenario 2

NORMALYSA (Scenarios 1 & 2 Complete; Scenario 3, 15 Nov. 2017)

RESRAD (15 March 2018)

GOLDSIM (15 March 2018)

DCC Calculator (15 March 2018)

• Considerations of other risks induced by remediation (worker exposure, transportation, etc) (input to chapter 2) (15 April 2018)

• Radionuclide transport in the Konoplyanka River

Task 1: Model set up and initial runs (15 Jan. 2018)

PC CREAM adpation and application; Comparison to NORMALYSA

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• Biosphere exposure assessment for Konoplyanka River Task 1: Model set up & initial model runs NORMALYSA (30 Dec. 2017) BIOSPHERE (TBD) GOLDSIM (30 April 2018)

Framework for stakeholder engagement - Leveraging CIDER Task 1: General framework presentation (2 Nov. 2017)

• Evaluate datasets for potential biota doses assessment (30 Nov. 2017)

• Monitoring strategy to help define end state (15 Feb. 2018)

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Zapadnoe Tailings Site, Ukraine

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Former Tin Processing Facility, Brazil

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Site layoput

Storage facility

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Former Tin Processing Facility, Brazil

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Data collection (15 Nov. 2017) RESRAD Model setup (15 Dec. 2017) NORMALYSA (TBD)

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NORM Site, China

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Addition to WG1 Case Studies still under Consideration Decision expected by no later than May 2018

Coal mining and surrounding farmland

Tailing and paddy field

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MODARIA I WG1 Report

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Proposal under consideration to split the draft MODARIA I WG1 Report into 2 parts Part 1 on Decision-Aiding Theory and Framework to be

completed as MODARIA I publication Part 2 on examples of decision-aiding analyses to be

integrated into MODARIA II WG1 Report

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MODARIA II WG1 Interim Report TOC

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1 INTRODUCTION (Ming) 1.1 Purpose and Scope of the Report 1.2 Organization of the Report 2 RISK-INFORMED DECSION ANALYSIS FOR NORM AND LEGACY WASTE SITES 2.1 Current Practices of Risk Assessment And Decision Making For Environmental Remediation 2.1.1 LANL MDA B Remediation and Land Conveyance (Amanda, Jeff , 30 Dec. 2017) 2.2 Lessons Learned from Decision Making Process Related to Remediation and Closure of Uranium Mine at Žirovski vrh, Slovenia (Branko, Borut, Paul) (30 Dec. 2017) 2.3 General (Framework, objectives, uncertainties, sensitivity, flow diagram, monitoring, etc) (Simon, Alan, Paul, Amanda, Branko) (30 Dec. 2017) 2.4 Examples of Risk-Informed Decision Analyses 2.4.1 Beaverlodge Uranium Mill and Tailings Site Closure (Stacey, 30 Dec. 2017) 2.4.2 An Approach for Risk-Informed Decision Making with Stakeholder Engagement (Paul, Simon, Branko) (30 Dec. 2017) 3 Considerations for Radiological Impact Assessments and Decision Making for Legacy and NORM Sites 3.1 Modelling for Intended Use (screening – remediation/optimization ; elements on Conservatism-Realism / Simplification-Complexity) Diederik, Ming, Nasser, Amanda, Eduardo, Charley (Late Nov. 2017 Webinar to discuss contents & date) 3.2 The Kd Approach and Alternative Methods for Radiological Impact Assessments (as an example for sensitivity/uncertainty, check MODARIA I, Hanuko, Diederik, Eduardo, Talal) considering also TF, BCF (D 28 Feb. 2018) 3.3 Definition of End State (Hanuko, Stacey) (Contact Josh for LM statistics; sustainability) (15 Dec. 2017) (Potential overlap with Beaverlodge?) 4 TEST CASE 1: TESSENDERLO PHOSPHATE PROCESSING PLANT SITE, BELGIUM 4.1 Scenario Development and Justification (Stéphane) (Draft complete 31 Oct 2017)

4.1.1 Residual Contamination in Flood Zone of Stream 4.1.2 Waste Disposal at Kepkensberg 4.1.3 Radionuclide Transport in the Winterbeek River

4.2 Model Development and Analysis 4.2.1 PC CREAM

4.2.2 BIOSPHERE 4.2.3 NORMALYSA 4.2.4 RESRAD 4.2.5 GOLDSIM

4.3 Interpretation of Assessment Results 4.4 Decision Making 4.5 Demonstration of GiSDT? 5 TEST CASE 2: ZAPADNOE TAILINGS SITE, UKRAINE 5.1 Scenario Development and Justification (Daria) (Draft complete 31 Oct 2017)

5.1.1 Worker Exposure 5.1.2 Radionuclide Transport in GW to the Konoplyanka River 5.1.3 Transport to the Konoplyanka and Dniper Rivers

5.2 Model Development and Analysis 5.2.1 PC CREAM 5.2.2 NORMALYSA 5.2.3 RESRAD 5.2.4 GOLDSIM

5.3 Interpretation of Assessment Results 5.4 Decision Making 6 Summary APPENDIX A: SITE DESCRITION, SCENARIO DESCRIPTION, AND INPUT DATASET OF THE TESSENDERLO PHOSPHATE PROCESSING PLANT SITE CASE STUDY APPENDIX B: SITE DESCRITION, SCENARIO DESCRIPTION, AND INPUT DATASET OF THE ZAPADNOE TAILINGS SITE CASE STUDY

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PLANNED NEAR-TERM ACTIONS

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Distribution of Rn-222 flux (mBq/m2/s) from the surface of Zapadnoe tailings in September 2009

NRPA Lillehammer presentation on end-state (Adrian Punt): Nov. 2017

WG1 WebEx Meeting to discuss status & update plans: Late Nov. 2017

CIDER Technical Meeting: Feb. 2018 (Paul Black) Draft Sections of WG1 Interim Report for internal review:

March 2018 WM2018 Symposium in Phoenix: March 2018 (WG1

Overview by Ming Zhu & Tamara Yankovich; Panel and oral presentations on various topics by Ming Zhu, Tamara Yankovich, Paul Black, Amanda Anderson, Haruko Wainwright, and Stuart Walker)

RESRAD Training course at ANL: April 2018 (Charley Yu)

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Next Meeting

JSI, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 21-25 May 2018 (with Field Trip to )

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Thank you for your participation!