Mike McMahon

Senior Hydro-meteorologist

Flood Forecasting – A Whole New Level of Guidance

2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX

2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX

The Right Information at the Right Time

Forecasting that targets your concerns

A forecast that allows you to be proactive rather than reactive

It is all about getting what you want, when you want it, and where you want it for!

Flood Forecasting – 2012

Technological Advancements – Doppler

Radar, Dual Pol Doppler, improved

atmospheric model initialization, enhanced

remote sensing

Methodological advancements – HMT,

improved atmospheric modeling,

improved skill in QPF, and many more

2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX

Public vs Private Weather Services

NOAA/NWS are responsible for the lives and livelihoods of 300 million people.

A private sector meteorologist is there specifically for the needs of an individual agency.

Dedication

Communication

Interpretation

Customization

Communication

Decision support is only valuable if it is there when you need it.

Interpretation

Customization

Forecasts are for one agency, one basin, and one meteorological parameter (rainfall).

2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX

A Client Specific Three-tiered Approach

1. QPF information – A look at what will come

2. Real-time/near real-time information – A look at what is occurring or has just occurred

3. Gage Information and verification – A look at rainfall that is turning into streamflow

What can you do with an accurate QPF?

Mitigation, mitigation, mitigation

Hydrologic model input InfoWorks/FloodWorks, HEC-RAS, HEC-HMS, etc. - Can be used for design, planning and mitigation

Efficient field staffing – the where and the when

Full 2D for overland flow area

What can you do with real-time or near real-time Doppler radar data and STP maps?

Near real-time flow yields a near real-time vulnerability assessment

Public works crews can be targeted in the field

What can you do with real-time gage information? Verification

Calibration

Confirmation

Product Delivery

Web-based ArcGIS Online or Google platforms – model ready Customized interface for each user and each user

need The decision support that you need in a format that

that requires minimal interpretation Flood mitigation on any scale

2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX

Cost to benefit ratio

The number of events that would need to be mitigated to fund this type of guidance for 5-10 years.

1

Questions?

Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain”- Anonymous