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Risk perception, a key component of systemic vulnerability of coastal zone to marine inundation.Case study on the French Mediterranean coast.CatherineMeur-Ferec, Hervé Flanquart, Peggy Hellequin, Bénédicte RulleauOutlines1) Introduction: coastal risks, a social construction 2) Systemic vulnerability and risk perception 3) Perception survey on the Mediterranean coast 4) Main results 5) Conclusion: towards indicators of adaptationA part of a larger Interdisciplinary French research progr

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Risk perception, a key component of systemic vulnerability of coastal zone to marine inundation.Case study on the French Mediterranean coast.Catherine

Meur-Ferec, Herv Flanquart, Peggy Hellequin, Bndicte Rulleau

Outlines1) Introduction: coastal risks, a social construction 2) Systemic vulnerability and risk perception 3) Perception survey on the Mediterranean coast 4) Main results 5) Conclusion: towards indicators of adaptation

A part of a larger Interdisciplinary French research program: Miseeva (Marine Inundation hazard exposuremodeling and Social, Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Assessment in regard to global changes)2

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

The converging dynamics that create the coastal risks

3

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

Systemic vulnerability, a key concept. Risk perception, an main component.

Palavas, France

4

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

Systemic vulnerability studied from 4 components hazards (natural process sometimes reinforced by human action : erosion, breaches in

coastal dunes, marine inundation, etc.) stakes involved (people and goods exposed to hazards) management (public policies of prevention and crisis management, defence equipments against the sea, etc.) perception (knowledge and awareness of risk, attachment to the territory, adaptation capacity...)

5

1-Introduction 2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception 4-The Enquiry 5- Results 6-Conclusion 1-Introduction 2-Systemic vulnerability 3-Risk perception 3-The Enquiry 4- Results 5-Conclusion

Focus on the perception component of vulnerability Risk perception essential because it informs on the adaptation capacity of the society and helps to move toward a "good governance" of risks In France, the storm Xynthia has dramatically demonstrated a high vulnerability (29 deaths on the Vende coast, March 2010). The problem of risk perception appears as a key issue.

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La Faute sur-Mer after the storm Xynthia, France, 1st March 2010

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

A territory is even more vulnerable that the perception of risk by its inhabitants is "faulty i.e, far removed from what the experts have tried to objectify (which is stillsubject to a large uncertainty)

Our main hypothesis are that : - a weak knowledge and awareness of the risk (sensibility) increases vulnerability - a low residential mobility (voluntary or involuntary) reduces adaptation capacity (and increases vulnerability) - a high attachment to the territory and the property reduces adaptation capacity (and increases vulnerability)

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Criel/Mer, France, 2005

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

Perception survey on the Mediterranean coast

Questionnaires check. Palavas, July 20098

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

Study area : coastal districts of 3 communes

Maugio Prols

Palavas

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1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

Frontignan (Hrault) (EID Mditerrane) 10

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

Methodology A questionnaire of 158 questions, most of them closed, a few open (30 mn) Face to face, on site (door-to-door) April and July 2009 (before Xynthia storm) Target population: people who own or use goods exposed to the hazard of marine inundation, i.e. residents (principal and secondary) and shopkeepers

Finally 563 questionnaires- 318 for principal residents - 164 for secondary residents - 81 for shopkeepers

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1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

MAIN RESULTS OF THE PERCEPTION SURVEY

Palavas, France, 200912

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

1- Marine flood risk compared to other current risks in lifeDisease Car crash Water pollution Air pollution Flooding Agression Involuntary unemployment War Nuclear accident Attack Epidemic Oil slick Riot Industrial accident Autre NSP/ no answer Nothing Total 1st answer 2nd answer 3rd answer 29% 17% 8.5% 16.5% 18% 10.5% 8% 8.5% 8% 5% 7.5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 2% 6.5% 8% 5% 6% 5% 5% 2.5% 3.5% 2.5% 3% 4.5% 2% 2% 2.5% 1% 1% 4.5% 0.5% 2% 2% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 1% 14.5% 5.5% 10% 1% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% Total 55% 45% 24% 17.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 11% 9.5% 6.5% 6.5% 4.5% 1% 2% 3% 1% 100%

Flooding risk does not obnubilate the respondents13

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

2- Among environmental risks, pollution before inundationMain residents 53.5% 51.5% 47% 43.5% 26.5% 22% 13.5% 9.5% 2% 100% Secondary Shopkeepers Total residents 56% 59.5% 55% 49.5% 46% 38% 24.5% 16% 10% 8.5% 5% 100% 45.5% 39.5% 50.5% 34.5% 26% 12.5% 100% 50% 45.5% 43% 27% 21% 12.5% 8.5% 2% 2% 100%

Marine pollution Air or water pollution Sea level rise Coastal flooding Storm River flooding Tsunami Industrial accident Other / NSP None Total

Even among environmental risks, sea level rise and sea flooding are not the most frightening risks. 14

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

3- Stable projection for residence place 45% of principal residents and 72% of secondary residents think that they will live in the same house in 20 years.

no visible fear for their geographic stability. Coastal flooding risks don t seem to offset coastal amenities. secondary residents imagine a more stable future (stronger attachment to the family heritage, holiday meeting point not submitted to professional mobility, weaker knowledge of winter storms...)

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Palavas, France, 2009

Palavas, France, 2009

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

4- Confident projection for personal property value 77% of residents think that the value of their property will increase or remain stable in the next 20 years.

Residents don t take into account the potential economic consequences of coastal hazards (or they believe in the support of their government ?)

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1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

5. Confident projection for transferring their property to heirs 75 % of the respondents (43% for main residents and 85% for secondary residents) think that they will pass on their property to their children.

Strong trust in the sustainability of their property Again, secondary residents appear to have more stable and confident forecasts

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1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

6- strong damages expected on the coast 90% of residents think that some houses and roads will be damaged by sea level rise, in their town, in the next 20 years 45% even think that entire neighbourhoods will be uninhabitable in the next 20 years 65% think that this coast will suffer major degradations to 2100

Respondents expect very heavy damages, even in the short term. Not in accordance with confident forecasts regarding personal goods Usual "optimism bias for the risks to which one is personally exposed

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1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

7- Collective protection strategies Different positions according to the stakes: - higher for public service amenities (84%), cultural (79%) and natural (76%) heritages - also positive (73%) for economic activities, but more correlated to the cost - still positive (52%) for individual goods (one house) but it s the only issue for which 42% of respondents is against collective protection

Cathedral of Maguelone, France

Strong will to protect collective goods and services. But the collective defence of individual houses seems to raise questions.19

1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

8- A very small investment in the protection of personal property 93 % of the respondents didn t subscribe special protection against sea flooding (such as walls, planks, drainage systems, water proofing doors etc.). No physical interventions on personal property.

Probably because the need is not felt: 90% of the respondents have never been flooded by the sea in the ten past years. Moreover it seems that residents don t like to live in a place where risk is always reminded by visible protections (T. Harris, 2008).

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1-Introduction

2-Systemic vulnerability and Risk perception

3-The Enquiry

4- Results

5-Conclusion

9- Reaction if the

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