tsunami inundation modelling for tairua & pauanui · 2016. 10. 30. · •assess tsunami...
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Tsunami Inundation Modelling for Tairua & Pauanui
Jose C. Borrero, Ph.D.
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Study Objectives
• Review previous studies
• Compile updated relevant scientific literature
• Assess tsunami inundation in Whitianga from the 1960 Chile tsunami
• Assess tsunami inundation in Tairua/Pauanui for a South American and Kermadec trench earthquake scenarios.
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Previous Studies
• Prasetya et al. (2008) - Univ. of Waikato report
• Prasetya and Wang (2011) – GNS report
• Bell et al. (2004) – NIWA/GNS
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Modelling Approach
• Need to update model
– 3DD modelling by Prasetya was not repeatable
• Specialized and more easily expandable modelling tools are available
– The ComMIT modeling system
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ComMIT • Community Model Interface for Tsunamis
•Database driven •Unit source approach •Propagations results downloaded from web •Inundation run locally on user controlled bathymetry
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Earthquake Source Models
• Explored the effect of uniform vs. distributed slip at the source on tsunami in Whitianga.
• Updated information regarding the 1960 earthquake: Fujii and Satake (2012).
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Model Calibration and Sensitivity
Instrumental Calibration:
• Tohoku 2011
• Chile 2010
Qualitative Calibration
• Chile 1960
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Tohoku 2011
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Comparison to Tide Gauge
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Max Water Level
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Chile 2010
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Earthquake Source Models – Chile 1960
Case 1 – average slip 17.5 m
Case 2 – average slip 20.8 m
Case 3 – Fujii and Satake (2012) source.
Case 4 – Fujii and Satake (2012) slip distribution increased by 20%.
Case 5 - Fujii and Satake (2012) slip distribution increased by 20%, concentrated to south.
Case 6 - Fujii and Satake (2012) slip distribution increased by 20%, concentrated to north.
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Comparison to Historical Accounts - 1960
Eyewitness accounts report: …around 9:30 pm on May 23: ‘the tide came in and out at a fast rate’ ‘about 2 am on Tuesday morning […] seemed to be the worst time’
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Comparison to Historical Account - 1960
Case 3 (n = 0.03) Case 3 (n = 0.021)
inundation ‘into the old aerodrome hangar along the northern end of Buffalo Beach, where it wet crates of corrugated iron stored on the floor damaging them’
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Comparison to Historical Account - 1960
inundation ‘into the old aerodrome hangar along the northern end of Buffalo Beach, where it wet crates of corrugated iron stored on the floor damaging them’
Case 4 (n = 0.03) Case 6 (n = 0.03)
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Comparison to Historical Account - 1960
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SO WHERE IS TAIRUA’S NEXT TSUNAMI COMING FROM?
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Trans-Oceanic?
Samoa/Tonga Region Japan Region
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The greatest far-field hazard for NZ comes from sources in northern Chile and Southern Peru
Worst Case For NZ – Far Field
1868: Quake near Arica, (Chile/Peru border), same size as Japan quake, caused a 7 m tsunami in Lyttelton
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Earthquake Source Models – Chile 1960
Case 1 – average slip 17.5 m
Case 2 – average slip 20.8 m
Case 3 – Fujii and Satake (2012) source.
Case 4 – Fujii and Satake (2012) slip distribution increased by 20%.
Case 5 - Fujii and Satake (2012) slip distribution increased by 20%, concentrated to south.
Case 6 - Fujii and Satake (2012) slip distribution increased by 20%, concentrated to north.
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Tairua 1960 Cases water level
Case 1
Case 4
Case 2
Case 5
Case 3
Case 6
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Case 1
Case 4
Case 2
Case 5
Case 3
Case 6
Tairua 1960 Cases current speed
~5 knot max above tidal current
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1960 Case 5
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Subduction Zone
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Tairua – Pauanui
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Tonga-Kermadec
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July 7, 2011: Mw = 7.8 Kermadec Trench
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Original
‘Samoa Size’
‘Samoa Size’ South
Thrust
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Sensitivity to Source Segment: Kermadec Trench
10 m slip applied to each pair of segments
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Arrival Times
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Earthquake Magnitude:
Magnitude = strength of the rock x Slip x Length x Width
M = m u (L x W)
To get a bigger earthquake: make fault LONGER
or add more SLIP
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Earthquake Source Models – Kermadec Trench
Case 1: 10.5 m - North
Case 2: 10.5 m - South
Case 3: 14.7 m - North
Case 4: 14.7 m - South.
Case 6: 21 m - North
Case 5: 21 m - South
Case : 35 m - South
Case 8 – What if Japan 2011 happened in our backyard?
(it happened in Chile 1960…)
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Tairua – Pauanui Results
Kermadec Trench Scenarios
Case 1 – 10m slip Case 2 – 10 m slip
Case 3 – 15 m slip Case 4 – 15 m slip
Case 5 – 21 m slip
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Tairua – Pauanui Results
Kermadec Trench Scenarios
Mid-Tide HIGH-Tide
Case 2
Case 4
Case 2
Case 4
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Tairua – Pauanui Results
Kermadec Trench Scenario
Mid-Tide HIGH-Tide
Case 5
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Case 5 – High Tide
Case 5
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Two Additional [EXTREME] Cases
Case 7 High Tide Case 8 High Tide
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Tairua – Pauanui Results
Case 7 – 35 m slip Case 8 – ‘Japan on the TK-Trench’ 26 m slip
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Worst Cases
Case 5 Case 7 Case 8
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Conclusions
• Model reproduces instrumental record of historical tsunamis well (2010, 2011)
• Good qualitative match to historical accounts in Whitianga.
• Far field sources do not represent a large scale inundation hazard for Tairua-Pauanui. An extreme event arriving at high tide and currents in the harbour are a concern.
• Worst case scenario is the Kermadec Trench Scenario. The further south, the worse it is.