Metrics for Model Skill Assessment

• Model Error time series (model-data misfit):– ME(i) = model - data

• Total Root-Mean-Square Error: RMS_Total

• RMS_Total2 = RMS_Bias2 + RMS_Variability2

– RMS_Bias = difference between means– RMS_Variability (centered pattern RMS) =

mean [difference of deviations from mean]

• RMS_Variability: Correlation, Amplitude --> Taylor diagram– Amplitude of deviations– Correlation of deviations

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RMS _Total =1

NME(i)2

i=1

N

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Taylor Plot

Graphical relationship between time series based on four statistics: 1) Overall Mean

Bias2) Seasonal Variance

Standard Deviation3) Timing/Phase

Correlation Coefficient4) Root Mean Square Error

Centered RMS Distance (RMS_V)

Taylor Diagram Example

old Run 751

new Run 801

Target Diagram as Skill Assessment Tool

RMS_T2 = RMS_B2 + RMS_V2

model-data misfit = variability in data

model-data misfit = error in data

SAB SST climatology

SST

Chlorophyll

Chlorophyll

Summary

Taylor & Target diagrams are two complimentary ways

of assessing model skill

- Taylor: Correlation of variability Amplitude of variability (Bias)

- Target: Total RMS Relative bias and variability components

SST• Correlation: ~0.9 always

satellite, in situ, 2004, climatology• Amplitude of variability: good

especially for satellite 2004 comparisonsunderestimate in FL, GAoverestimate everywhere north of SC

• Bias: low underestimate in SAB in climatology, better using 2004

• RMS_bias ≈ RMS_variability

MLD• Correlation: always positive

Higher in MAB (.8) than SAB (.5)Higher in outer SAB (>.6) than inner SAB (<.4)

• Amplitude of variability: overestimate variabilityExcept for MAB Outer shelf

• Bias: generally low typically overestimate (FL inner, DE outer)occasionally underestimate (FL, GA outer, MAB outer)

Summary (cont.)

Surface chlorophyll - much greater challenge!

• Correlation: -0.6 to 0.9 (same for Clim and 2004)lower off NC, SC, NYHigher off FL, DE, NJ

• Amplitude of variability: so-so (worse for 2004 in SAB)underestimate in SABoverestimate in MAB

• Bias: large negative bias everywhere underestimate in GA, SC (benthic production?)underestimate on inner MAB shelf

• RMS_bias >> RMS_variability

• Little correlation between where MLD/SST is modeled well (poorly) and where chlorophyll is modeled well (poorly)

Summary (cont.)

Use these Taylor/Target diagrams to compare runs

• With/without tides• With/without DOM

Plot other quantities: kPAR, productivity, oxygen, salinity

Examine other regions: Gulf of MaineGulf Stream/Sargasso

Use these for the OCRT meeting?Use these for the Oceanography article?

Future Work