methodologies used by midwest region states for studying...

I S S U E S amp A N S W E R S R E L 2 0 0 9 ndash N o 0 8 0

At Learning Points Associates

Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supply and demand

U S D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n

I S S U E SampANSWERS R E L 2 0 0 9 ndash N o 0 8 0

At Learning Point Associates

MethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatesforstudying

teachersupplyanddemand

September2009

Preparedby

JamesJLindsayPhDLearningPointAssociates

YinmeiWanPhDLearningPointAssociates

WillGossin-WilsonLearningPointAssociates


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IssuesampAnswersisanongoingseriesofreportsfromshortshytermFastResponseProjectsconductedbytheregionaleducashytionallaboratoriesoncurrenteducationissuesofimportanceatlocalstateandregionallevelsFastResponseProjecttopicschangetoreflectnewissuesasidentifiedthroughlaboutreachandrequestsforassistancefrompolicymakersandeducashytorsatstateandlocallevelsandfromcommunitiesbusinessesparentsfamiliesandyouthAllIssuesampAnswersreportsmeetInstituteofEducationSciencesstandardsforscientificallyvalidresearch

September2009

ThisreportwaspreparedfortheInstituteofEducationSciences(IES)underContractEDshy06shyCOshy0019byRegionalEducashytionalLaboratoryMidwestadministeredbyLearningPointAssociatesThecontentofthepublicationdoesnotnecessarshyilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofIESortheUSDepartmentofEducationnordoesmentionoftradenamescommercialproductsororganizationsimplyendorsementbytheUSGovernment

ThisreportisinthepublicdomainWhilepermissiontoreprintthispublicationisnotnecessaryitshouldbecitedas

LindsayJJWanYandGossinshyWilsonW(2009)Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supshyply and demand(IssuesampAnswersReportREL2008ndashNo080)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationEvaluationandRegionalAssistanceRegionalEducationalLaboratoryMidwestRetrievedfromhttpiesedgovnceeedlabs

Thisreportisavailableontheregionaleducationallaboratorywebsiteathttpiesedgovnceeedlabs

Summary


REL 2009ndashNo 080

ThisreportdescribeshowstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionmonitorteachersupplydemandandshortagedetailswhytheymonitorthesedataandoffersestimatesofthemonetarycostsincurredinperformingsuchstudies

ThisstudyrespondstoarequestfromstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegion(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)tolearnmoreaboutteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedinneighboringstates

Thestudyaimedtoanswerthefollowingresearchquestions

bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkshyforcemonitoringprojectionandreportshyingrequiredbystatelaworcode

bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand

bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches

Toaddressthesequestionsthestudyreviewed27teachersupplyanddemandreportsproshyducedbyandfortheMidwestRegionstates

since2000AdditionalinformationcamefrominterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsresponsibleforproducingthereshyportsAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingtodefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandThestudyfindshyingsareframedaroundthosecomponents

ThestudyfoundthatstateeducationagenciesconductteachersupplyanddemandstudiestocomplywithfederallawsandregulationsincludingprovisionsofpartBoftheIndividushyalswithDisabilitiesEducationActfederalregulationsonloandefermentorforgiveshynessprogramsandscholarshipsandTitleIIrequirementsoftheHigherEducationActFourofthesevenMidwestRegionstatesalsoconductteachersupplyanddemandstudshyiestocomplywithstatestatutesThedatasourcesusedandthenumberofdataelementsanalyzedindicatethatatleastthreestatesgobeyondcompliancewithfederallawsorrulesThesestatesgatherinformationfrommultiplesourcestocrossshyvalidatetheirdataandtoobtainrichertypesofdatatoaidpolicymakersinensuringadequatestaffingWhileseveralstatesprojectstudentenrollmentorteacherretirementsonlytwostatesproduceaforecastofteacherdemand

MidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandvaryincomplexity

ii Summary

andcostInatradeoffbetweeninformationandcostmorecomprehensivestudiescostmoreandproducericherdataandmorepolicyshyrelevantanalysesRespondentsrevealthatwhendeterminingapproachesstatesweighthecostsofconductingthesestudiesagainstthebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationTwostatesrelymostlyonasingleindicatorofteachershortageOtherstatesusemultimethodapproachesthatcombineanalysesofstatedatashybaseswithresultsfromsurveysoflocaleducashytionagencypersonnelrepresentativesofinstishytutionsofhighereducationandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsAlthoughmoststateshaveconductedtheirsupplyanddemandstudiessince2000usingthesameindicators

andanalyticmethodologiessomestateshavescaledbacktheirsupplyanddemandstudiesconsiderablybecauseofbudgetaryconstraints

Theestimatedcoststostatesofconductingthesestudiesvaryconsiderablyfromapproxishymately$10to$35000Studiesconductedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfedshyerallawsorrulesandstatestatutesandruleswiththesamerequirementsasthefederalreportingwereestimatedbythestudyandbystateeducationagencystafftocostlessthan$4000Morecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiescost$25000ndash$35000

September2009

Table of conTenTs

Whythisstudy 1

Componentsofteachersupplyanddemand 2

Advantagesanddisadvantagesofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudies 5Advantages 5Disadvantages 5

TeachersupplyanddemandmodelsusedinMidwestRegionstates 6StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits 8StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters 9StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies 9StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases 10StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducation

agencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions 11StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducation

agencies 13StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollected

fromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters 14Summaryoffindings 16

InterpretingMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemand 17Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys 17Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs 18

Studylimitations 20

AppendixA Descriptionsofcodesoffederalregulationandfederallawrelatedtoteachershortageareas 21

AppendixB Theliteraturereviewforforecastmodels 23

AppendixC Interviewquestions 26

AppendixD DatareportedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportsbyMidwestRegionstate 27

Notes 32

References 34

Boxes

1 Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents 3

2 Studymethods 6

Figure

B1 Literaturesearchresults 24

Tables

1 DataexaminedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 7

iii Table of conTenTS

2 LegislativerequirementsandcostsassociatedwithmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 8

3 TeachersupplyanddemandcomponentsmeasuredinmostrecentMidwestRegionstatesupplyanddemandstudies2007and2008 19

D1 DatareportedinStateArsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport2008 27

D2 DatareportedinStateBrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportOctober2008 27

D3 DatareportedinStateCrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJuly2008 27

D4 DatareportedinStateDrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportAugust2007 28

D5 DatareportedinStateErsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 29

D6 DatareportedinStateFrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 30

D7 DataReportedinStateGrsquosMostRecentTeacherSupplyandDemandReport2007 31

iv Table of conTenTS

1 Why ThiS STudy

This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies

Why This sTudy

Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate

proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand

AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally

StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)

StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements

2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand

inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell

HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning

Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2

bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode



Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy

ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see

appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents

coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand

TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses

Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage

Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector

3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand

box 1

Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents

Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1

Demand

Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand

Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)

wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff

schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)

InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand

Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften

distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo

Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply

Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios

Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios

Supply

Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare

(conTinued)


box 1 (conTinued)


returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply

Total supply = number of teachers

wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce

Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience

Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply

sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)

Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)

Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)

Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor

assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear

Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy

mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective

2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers

advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5

Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified

advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies

Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages

Advantages

WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell

Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby

states that forecast

teacher supply and

demand components

give themselves extra

time to make appropriate

policy adjustments

incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand

StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections

Disadvantages

ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3

WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses

TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand


analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments

Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand

thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection

TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes

ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext

box 2

Studymethods

ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe

contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested

ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe

includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport

Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam

Table 1

data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008

data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g

analysis of state data

Demand components

number of job postings on state web site

expected student enrollments

demographics of current workforce

a crossshylocal education agency mobility

crossshyfield mobility

Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers

Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time

retirementage of workforce

Supply components

new certificateslicenses issued inshystate

new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states

number of reentries

b number of completers traditional programs

number of completers alternate certification

pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)

General indicators of supply-demand balance

emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes

number of vacancies in fall

local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply

Surveysspecial data collectionsc

Demand components

Surveys of completers outmigration

Surveys of completers attrition

Supply components

d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers

Survey of completers pipeline yield

local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy

General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance

local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits

local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply

overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no

aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields

bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes

cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse

dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent

eEnrollmentbased

SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails

7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS


state arsquos analysis of

teacher supply and

demand focuses on the

number of emergency

licenses requested

each year by all local

education agencies

ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate

IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy

ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers

Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive

StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits

StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut

theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy

Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate

Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot

Table 2

legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008

additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g

State law no yes yes no yes yes no

estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa

50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa

contract amount

033 fullshytime equivalent

cost listed in report

billed on contract

estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b

NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices

aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates

bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers


Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9

presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation

Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104

StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters

StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw

Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated

TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic

Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires

identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy

state b monitors teacher

supply and demand

using analyses of

emergency licenses or

conditional permits to

identify fields and local

education agencies

experiencing shortages

stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions

Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500

StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies

StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas

Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas

[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field


ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators

TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport

Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal

requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes

Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer

StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases

StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases

Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)


Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork

Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand

Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)

butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher

state d has attempted

to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that

track supply and demand

components and include

specific analyses of

interest to policymakers

supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports

Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork

StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions

UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular


state ersquos annual supply

and demand report

includes analyses based

on databases containing

teacher records student

enrollments teacher

license information

and local education

agency information on

unfilled positions and

impressions of areas

of teacher shortage

includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate

Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated

thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions

continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)

TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints

Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe

respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime

Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment

WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)

Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso


TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode

Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys

StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies

StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies

Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe

dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)

Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime

NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)

Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea


Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate

Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell

ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators

Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse

rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements

alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea

Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode

Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline

StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters

ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey


oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate

Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield

AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway

Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo

Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime

unlike some of the other

state reports reviewed

here state grsquos report

summarizes most of

the data on supply and

demand components in

a consistent fashion

by teaching field

partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers

Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse

Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears

Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys

Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext


The lack of consistency

in teacher supply and

demand forecast models

used by Midwest Region

states precluded analysis

of their accuracy

regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese

studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell

Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia

Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport

Summaryoffindings

Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas

ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers

TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons

ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed

inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17

inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears

FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport

inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand

ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost

Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys

DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)

ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage

slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply

ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio

AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould


information gathered

through interviews

indicates that the state

education agencies in

states that spent less

than $4000 annually

to generate their list of

shortage areas either

do not consider teacher

staffing to be a big

enough priority to justify

the cost of conducting

a more comprehensive

study or that they lack

guidance on how to

conduct such a study

triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7

ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF

alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport

Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs

SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes

HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement

Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage

Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities

Table 3

Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008

cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g

lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137

demand components

number of teachers retained

c Teacher attritionretirement

Teacher attrition other leavers

Teacher attrition inshystate movers

Teacher attrition outmigration

expected student enrollment

Teachershystudent ratios

Supply components

Teacher retention

c d inshystate pipeline

c d inshystate alternate route

pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)

Teachers from other states

reentries

Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance

emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes

c number of vacancies




cMeasuredinpreviousreports

dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure


19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand

OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine


theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute

sTudy liMiTaTions

Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply

Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates

AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions

AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused

21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW

appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas

Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas

SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas

34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation

34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear

34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal

FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation

Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage

bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled

bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification

bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation

Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting

34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement


Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas

bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition

bull Foreignlanguage

bull Mathematics

bull Readingspecialist

bull Science

bull Specialeducation

bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin

theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)

SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas

20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation

23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS

appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models

AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs

Theliteraturesearch

TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience

ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas

(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)

Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso

wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports

ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1

Reviewingreportsforrelevance

TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase

Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance

bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded

bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough

figure b1

literature search results

Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)

317 duplicates eliminated

Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)

Reports unable to obtain (326)

Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)

Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)

Phase I electronic database search

Phase II screening (abstract)

Phase III screening (full-text)

Data analysis

SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis

Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)

Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)

Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)

Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)


attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)

bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9

bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview

reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject

BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance


Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents

Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers

TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe

componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport

Resultsofliteraturesearch

OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision

ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11


appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions

1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)

2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed

3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand

a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years

b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years

bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield

bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict

c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years



d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years



e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years



4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e

5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage

6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)

7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings

8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication

9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport

10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus

Table d1

data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008

Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report

emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies

agencies

NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation

SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008

Table d2

data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008


Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report

mechanisms agencies

SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008

Table d3

data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008


Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report

mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program

completers updated annually

SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008

appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27

appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe

Table d4

data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007

data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data

component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report

Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies

Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)

Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education

socioeconomic status mechanism agencies

Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and

experience

longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)

mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)

retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)

Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education

mechanism agencies

Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher

retirement database)

SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007


Table d5

data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009


retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies

mechanism

pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)

inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)

reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies

total workforce mechanism

pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)

Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism

year projections

Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies

region for each mechanism educator type

ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008

mechanism

unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism

administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)

demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism

hires over previous eight years

SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008


Table d6

data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009


pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)

Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants

change

new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher

shortage areas over time

Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers

Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)

retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies

region

emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies

over time and by applications region for licenses or

permits

areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies

personnel personnel

fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)

NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport

SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008


Table d7

data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007

Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report

pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time

pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)

attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education

attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)

ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203

grade level system agencies

vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency

administrators

applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency

administrators

areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency

personnel

SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007



noTes

TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy

1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations

2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch

3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand

4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman

resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest

5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse

6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport

7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical

noTeS 33

responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards

8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk

9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter

forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology

10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels

11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport


RefeRences

AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf

AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf

ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics

BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55

BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)

BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany

CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences

CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28

DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland

DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement

EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning

FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation

FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage

FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd

ed)ThousandOaksCASage

GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy

GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation

GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation

HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation

HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54

HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation

35 referenceS

do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA

HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics

LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)

LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific

MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage

MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation

NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice

NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation

CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil

PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32

PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73

ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning

SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms

USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics

USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices

USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget

Methodologies13used by13Midwest Region13states for13studying13teacher supply13and demand13

Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study

Components of teacher supply and demand

Box 113Definitions of teacher supply and13demand components13

Advantages and disadvantages of conducting comprehensive teacher supply and demand studies

Advantages

Disadvantages

Teacher supply and demand modelsused in Midwest Region states

Box 213Study methods13

Table 113Data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states132007 and 200813

Table 213Legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies13conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 200813

State Amdashanalysis of emergency licenses or conditional permits

State Bmdashanalysis of emergency licenses or conditional permits and number of program completers

State Cmdashemergency licenses or conditional permits program completers and job vacancies

State Dmdashfocus on multiple components through analysis of state databases

State Emdashmultimethod approach analysis of state database combined with impressions of local education agency administrators and survey of higher education institutions

State Fmdashmultimethod approach analysis of state database combined with survey of local education agencies

State Gmdashmultimethod approach analysis of state database information combined with survey data collected from local education agencies and program completers

Summary of findings

Interpreting Midwest Region state effortsto study teacher supply and demand

Cautions about studiesrsquo reliance on impressions data and surveys

Comprehensiveness and cost tradeoffs

Table 313Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and13demand studies 2007 and 200813

Study limitations

Appendix A13Descriptions of codes of federal regulation and federal law related to teacher shortage areas

Appendix B13The literature review for forecast models

Figure B113Literature search results13

Appendix C13Interview questions

Appendix D13Data reported in most recent teacher supply and demand reportsby Midwest Region state

Table D113Data reported in State Arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 200813

Table D213Data reported in State Brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report October 200813

Table D313Data reported in State Crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 200813

Table D413Data reported in State Drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report August 200713

Table D513Data reported in State Ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 200913

Table D613Data reported in State Frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 200913

Table D713Data Reported in State Grsquos Most Recent Teacher Supply and Demand Report 200713

Notes13

References13

I S S U E SampANSWERS R E L 2 0 0 9 ndash N o 0 8 0


MethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatesforstudying

teachersupplyanddemand

September2009

Preparedby

JamesJLindsayPhDLearningPointAssociates

YinmeiWanPhDLearningPointAssociates

WillGossin-WilsonLearningPointAssociates


WA

OR

ID

MT

NV

CA

UT

AZ

WY

ND

SD

NE

KSCO

NM

TX

OK

CO

AR

LA

MS AL GA

SC

NC

VAWV

KY

TN

PA

NY

FL

AK

MN

WI

IA

IL IN

MI

OH

VT

NH

ME

MO



September2009





Summary


REL 2009ndashNo 080











ii Summary




September2009

Table of conTenTs

Whythisstudy 1








Studylimitations 20





Notes 32

References 34

Boxes


2 Studymethods 6

Figure


Tables













1 Why ThiS STudy


Why This sTudy





















box 1



Demand











Supply


(conTinued)


box 1 (conTinued)



















Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

WA

OR

ID

MT

NV

CA

UT

AZ

WY

ND

SD

NE

KSCO

NM

TX

OK

CO

AR

LA

MS AL GA

SC

NC

VAWV

KY

TN

PA

NY

FL

AK

MN

WI

IA

IL IN

MI

OH

VT

NH

ME

MO



September2009





Summary


REL 2009ndashNo 080











ii Summary




September2009

Table of conTenTs

Whythisstudy 1








Studylimitations 20





Notes 32

References 34

Boxes


2 Studymethods 6

Figure


Tables













1 Why ThiS STudy


Why This sTudy





















box 1



Demand











Supply


(conTinued)


box 1 (conTinued)



















Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

Summary


REL 2009ndashNo 080











ii Summary




September2009

Table of conTenTs

Whythisstudy 1








Studylimitations 20





Notes 32

References 34

Boxes


2 Studymethods 6

Figure


Tables













1 Why ThiS STudy


Why This sTudy





















box 1



Demand











Supply


(conTinued)


box 1 (conTinued)



















Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

ii Summary




September2009

Table of conTenTs

Whythisstudy 1








Studylimitations 20





Notes 32

References 34

Boxes


2 Studymethods 6

Figure


Tables













1 Why ThiS STudy


Why This sTudy





















box 1



Demand











Supply


(conTinued)


box 1 (conTinued)



















Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

Table of conTenTs

Whythisstudy 1








Studylimitations 20





Notes 32

References 34

Boxes


2 Studymethods 6

Figure


Tables













1 Why ThiS STudy


Why This sTudy





















box 1



Demand











Supply


(conTinued)


box 1 (conTinued)



















Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13











1 Why ThiS STudy


Why This sTudy





















box 1



Demand











Supply


(conTinued)


box 1 (conTinued)



















Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13
















box 1



Demand











Supply


(conTinued)


box 1 (conTinued)



















Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13


box 1 (conTinued)



















Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13





Advantages




teacher supply and

demand components



policy adjustments



Disadvantages










box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13







box 2

Studymethods






Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

Table 1




Demand components









Supply components



number of reentries









Demand components



Supply components












eEnrollmentbased





teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13



teacher supply and


number of emergency

licenses requested


education agencies










Table 2






contract amount



billed on contract
















supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13











supply and demand

using analyses of




education agencies























to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13
















to conduct regular

teacher supply and

demand studies that











and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13



and demand report




enrollments teacher

license information

and local education




of teacher shortage









































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13































summarizes most of




by teaching field












of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13







of their accuracy





Summaryoffindings


















through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13














through interviews




than $4000 annually









guidance on how to










Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

Table 3




demand components








Supply components

Teacher retention





reentries














sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13



sTudy liMiTaTions























bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13



















bull Mathematics


bull Science









Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13




Theliteraturesearch












figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

figure b1











Data analysis













































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13


































Table d1




agencies



Table d2




mechanisms agencies


Table d3









Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

Table d4









experience





mechanism agencies





Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

Table d5




mechanism







year projections




mechanism







Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

Table d6





change






region



permits


personnel personnel





Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

Table d7










administrators


administrators


personnel




noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13


noTes










noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

noTeS 33








RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13


RefeRences






















35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

35 referenceS


















Summary13

Table of contents13

Why this study




Advantages

Disadvantages












Summary of findings





Study limitations













Notes13

References13

methodologies used by midwest region states for studying...

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