media center of excellence measurement that’s just …...•half of all u.s. companies use...

Ethan Rapp, News America Marketing

Vijoy Gopalakrishan, IRI

September 12, 2019

MEASUREMENT THAT’S JUST RIGHT

Media Center of Excellence

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

Today’s Presenters

Ethan Rapp

Vice President

Strategy and Insights

Vijoy Gopalakrishan

Principal

Media Center of Excellence

Paul Donato, Chief Research Officer for the Advertising Research Foundation, Contributed to this Content


Background

• Marketing analytics spend is expected to grow from 5.8% to 17.3%

of budget in 3 years, representing a 198% increase

• Marketers clearly value consumer data models for both offline

and online purchases

• Multi-channel media exposure (traditional / digital / in-store) and

multi-channel purchases (offline / online) begs the question:

How do we accurately attribute advertising and

marketing spend?

• This has given rise to multiple measurement

tools: Lift, MTA & MMx

• How do we integrate learnings from each

of these to take holistic action?

Source: 2018 CMO survey


Challenges Facing the Marketer in

Lift / MTA / MMX Insights Integration

• Half of all U.S. companies use multi-channel attribution

whether Lift, MTA or Marketing / Media Mix2

• Only 8% of client marketers worldwide have tied

together customer data from multiple channels… even

they agree, there is no perfect solution

• Each approach has pros and cons:

‒ MMx is top down and strategic, less tactical

‒ Lift is campaign specific (very tactical)

‒ MTA is granular, but data intensive (somewhat

subjective)

• Path to purchase is still more art than science

‒ As one marketer put it… “questions still remain on

which drink caused the hangover”

Source: eMarketer, Marketing Attribution 2017: Five Best Practices


11.7%

49.8%

7.1%

25.4%

6.0%10.5%

43.4%

19.9%

13.3% 12.9%

Manufacturer – Marketing SpendingBy Type

2012

2017

What Should You Measure?

Shopper Marketing and Digital Advertising are Growing Rapidly

But Trade Promotion Still Accounts for Over 40% of Spend

As Much of Trade is Collinear with Other Media, it Makes Isolation Difficult and Highly Correlated

Consumer Promotion

Trade Promotion

Digital Traditional Advertising

ShopperMarketing

Source: Cadent Consulting Corp


How to Integrate Learnings from Each

Measurement into a Holistic Marketing Agenda

• Many marketers simply conduct MMM and MTA separately and use experience and

judgement to combine the results

• Some companies specializing in attribution have created an algebra for combination

• But many marketers don’t understand the MTA models and think of it as a black box

• This is true with MMM as well: two modelers with the same data will produce different results

• This is not the days of just modeling TV anymore; marketers want to throw the kitchen sink into the models

𝐼𝑛𝑝

1−𝑝= Σ 𝑎𝑖𝐶𝑖 + Σ𝛽𝑗𝑀𝑗 𝑋1, … , 𝑋𝑛 + ΣΥ𝜅Α𝜅

Captures differences in individual customers due to

their distinct attributes

Captures influence of non-addressable drivers measured at the market level as measured by an aggregate model

Captures incremental conversion probability due to Digital Media

drivers for the individual

Source: Neustar


Myths and Challenges of MTA – the Newest Toolkit

• Some believe attribution models are biased and

under-represent the impact of upper funnel media

– Example: many models rely on smart TV data for

linear audience exposure, but we know this over-

represents OTT viewing

– Traditional media do not have the granularity (or

impression “bread crumb trail”) of digital

• Incrementality is very difficult to measure – it is difficult

to control for baseline – people who were going to

purchase anyway

• Randomized Control Groups are expensive to operate


What’s So Hard About Measuring Lift?

https://thearf.org/event/best-practices-for-proving-advertising-roi-using-experimental-design/


What’s So Hard About Measuring Lift?

Correlation is Not Causation

• Low intent customers have weak signals

• Retargeting makes randomized control groups very difficult (digital specific)

• Sales lift doesn’t measure long-term ad stock – upper funnel lift doesn't measure sales

• Lifetime value of incremental buyers is usually ignored

• Lift doesn't take into account type of

targeting or continuity (e.g., Dell, Fabric

Care examples)

• An important drawback of controlled sales

lift is that it is short-term and does not

capture holistic value (lifetime value of

incremental users, share shift, opportunity

cost of competitors, brand equity)


A Practitioner’s Learnings and Viewpoint

Identifying the Measure of Success / Learning

Priority is KEY, followed by a Measurement Plan:

Tradeoffs to Consider

• Measurement costs / scope relative to campaign investment

• Incremental learning opportunities

• Campaign planning realities

Product Observations

• MTA needs continued evolution and education

• Walled Gardens and Convenience are gaps that need to be scaled

for Lift / MTA to move from directional to fully ascribing what works

• Manufacturer management of paid digital / social data allows for

inclusion in MMM / secondary models

• Lift needs to be more inclusive of additional value propositions


A Practitioner’s Application Viewpoints

Push MMM Harder

– Deeper cleaner digital data (standardization, best practices)

– Leverage secondary models to create new learning

Leverage Lift for In-Flight

– Speed is required for optimization, especially for shorter flights

– Understanding optimization metric is a priority to simplify application

Identify Opportunities for MTA

– Measuring cross-platform frequency and synergy isn’t

something MTA does well

– MTA attribution challenges to channels beyond digital

– Incremental learning opportunities

Use These Measurement Products in Tandem by Deploying

the right tools for the respective metrics of interest (or focus)


$2.39 $2.69

$3.26

TV Online Display

Mobile

$ Uplift by Channel

$2.99 $3.31 $7.35 $7.98 $2.69 $2.60

$3.18

$6.90

$2.93

TV + Online Display

TV + Mobile

Online Display +

Mobile

TV + Online

Display + Mobile

Multi-Channel Synergy

Summary: Best Practices

Lift, MTA and MMM Have Unique Complementary Roles

• MMM – Strategic; go-to for media spend allocation at channel level predominantly and long-term impact

• Lift – In-campaign tactic optimization, campaign conversion, closed loop measurement

• MTA – Cross-channel measurement beyond TV / Digital and into online CRM; attractive continuous measurement

Bridging the Gap

• A/B Testing and Forensic approach need to

overcome baseline sales challenges;

evolutionary Ghost Bid and other techniques

solve this

• Cross-Channel Lift is available with MTA features

at an attractive price point

• There is no solution yet that can merge online

and offline touchpoints into one cohesive, rapid

and actionable MTA model

• Approaches to unify Lift, MTA and MMM are

emerging to integrate complementary benefits

of each tool

Figure A: CPG Food Brand Cross Channel Lift

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI).

Confidential and Proprietary. 14

FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US…

Vijoy Gopalakrishnan, IRI

[email protected]

Ethan Rapp, News America Marketing

[email protected]

or reach out to your IRI or News America Marketing contact


What Roles do Lift / MTA / MMX Play in a Marketer’s Tool Box?

Considerations Marketing Mix Lift MTA

What It Does Quantifies brand sales contribution and

ROI for each element of a marketing mix

over the entire year

Quantifies brand sales lift and ROAS generated by a

marketing campaign —typically digital or TV

Quantifies upper funnel & online sales lift and

ROAS generated by a marketing campaign –

typically digital or TV

Benefits Holistic view and strategic budget

planning solution. Disentangle and

simultaneously understand the

contribution that each of a multitude of

marketing mix levers make to brand

sales

Real time tactical campaign measurement. Measure

household level lift of a specific marketing lever or

combination of tactical levers (e.g., creative or

publisher). Read impact on penetration and buying

rate metrics

Daily tactical measurement of upper funnel

campaign elements (views, click thru’s) and

online sales lift daily/weekly. Provides

decomposed effect of tactics but does not

typically decompose sales lift into penetration,

dollars per visit, visits

Timing

Requirements

Requires robust set of observations over

a minimum of 3-6 months in order to

separate out marketing effects

Can read marketing execution of as few as 2-4 weeks,

depending on the number of impressions available

Can read marketing execution on a daily basis

but more robust with less variability over

weeks

Granularity Broader and strategic as the objective is

to explain the contributions of many

different marketing actions and plan for

full year

Narrower and tactical as the objective is to optimize

the effect of a specific marketing action in the near

term

Narrower and tactical as the objective is to

optimize the effect of a specific marketing

action in the near term

Relative Cost and

Timing

Delivery Timing: 7 to 10 weeks. 3-4 X

cost of Lift

Delivery Timing: 2-4 weeks with in campaign weekly

reads available for in-campaign optimization.

Daily, weekly, monthly. 9X+ cost of Lift to set

up. After that variable costing.

Limitations Top down, less granular… Tactical, focused on campaign optimization;

Mass/Conv is probabilistic while other channels are

deterministic

Increased set up cost. More ecommerce

focused currently; combining all platforms is a

challenge

media center of excellence measurement that’s just …...•half of all u.s. companies use...

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