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TRANSCRIPT
Education Policy and PlanningMasters in Human Rights and Ethics of International Cooperation
University of Bergamo
Morocco Education Sector Analysis
Sobhi TAWIL8-10 March 2012
Contents
1. Context : Development trends and challenges in Morocco
2. Education sector diagnosis : AccessEquityQualityEfficiency (Internal & External)Governance
3. Analysis : How can the educational crisis be explained?
ContextDevelopment trends and challenges
in Morocco
Average per capita income 2005
Country GDP per capita (USD)
Income Level
Qatar 52,240 Kuwait 31,861 UAE 28,612 Bahrain 17,773 Saudi Arabia 13,399
Oman 9,584
High
Libya 6,621 Lebanon 6,135
Algeria 3,112 Tunisia 2,860 Jordan 2,323 Morocco 1,711 Syria 1,382
Egypt 1,207 Palestine 1,107 Djibouti 894
Medium
Yemen 718 Sudan 760 Mauritania 603
Low
Source: Données adaptées du Rapport sur le Développement dans le Monde 2007-08 (PNUD, 2007).
Levels of Human Development 2005
Human Development Index (HDI)
Country
HDI value
International Ranking
HDI Level
Kuweait 0.891 33 Qatar 0.875 35 UAE 0.868 39 Bahrain 0.866 41 Libya 0.818 56 Oman 0.814 58 Saudi Arabia 0.812 61
High
Jordan 0.773 86 Lebanon 0.772 88 Tunisia 0.766 91
Algeria 0.733 104 Palestine 0.731 106 Syria 0.724 108 Morocco 0.646 126 Egypt 0.708 112
Mauritania 0.550 137 Sudan 0.526 147 Djibouti 0.516 149 Yemen 0.508 153
Medium
Source : UNDP 2007. Note : Un niveau IDH élevé est défini par une valeur de 0.800 ou plus. Un niveau IDH moyen est défini par une valeur se situant entre 5.00 et 0.799.
Population and Demographic Structure
Source: UNDP 2007.
Pays
Population Totale (millions)
Population urbaine
(% du total)
Population moins de 15
ans (% du total)
Algérie 32.9 63.3 29.6 Arabie saoudite 23.6 81.0 34.5 Bahreïn 0.7 96.5 26.3 Djibouti 0.8 86.1 38.5
Egypte 72.8 42.8 33.3 Emirats Arabes Unis 4.1 76.7 19.8 Jordanie 5.5 82.3 37.2 Kuweit 2.7 98.3 23.8 Liban 4.0 86.6 28.6 Libye 5.9 84.8 30.3
Maroc 30.5 58.7 30.3 Mauritanie 3.0 40.4 40.3 Palestine 3.8 71.6 45.9 Oman 2.5 71.5 33.8 Qatar 0.8 95.4 21.7
Soudan 36.9 40.8 40.7 Syrie 18.9 50.6 36.6 Tunisie 10.1 65.3 26.0 Yémen 21.1 27.3 45.8
Evolution of rural and urban poverty 1984 -1999 Relative number of persons living in poverty & pove rty rates
Evolution of people living in poverty and rate of p overty in Morocco Date
Residence
Poverty line
(in DH)
Absolute number of persons living in poverty (‘000)
Poverty rate (%)
Urban
1966
1300
13.8
Rural 1760 3300 26.7
1984/85
Total - 4600 21.1
Urban
2725
912
7.6
Rural 2439 2448 18.0
1990/91
Total - 3360 13.1
Urban
3922
1814
12.0
Rural 3037 3496 27.2
1998/99
Total - 5310 19.0
Source : Direction de la Statistique. Based on LSMS data for 1991 and 1999.
• The weight of the share of youth in total population
• Significant social and regional disparities
• High incidence of rural poverty
• Urban poverty and economic vulnerability
2. Educational Sector Diagnosis
• Access and equity• Quality• Internal efficiency• External efficiency• Governance
Access and Equity
Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) in primary (1991-2008) :Distribution by sex
Source : Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.
Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) primary (1991-2008) :Distribution by Urban/Rural residence
Source : Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.
Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) Lower secondary (1991-200 8) : Distribution by sex
Source : Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.
Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) Lower Secondary (1991-200 8) : Distribution by U/R residence
Source : Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.
Adult Literacy 2000
40 41.2
4950.7
55.6
59.9
68.9
73.2 74.477.3 77.9
81.7 82.9 82.9 84.287
88.590.9
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Iraq
Mau
ritan
iaYem
enM
orocc
o
Egypt
Sudan
Algeria
Tunisi
a
Oman
UAES. A
rabia
Libya
Kuwait
Syria
Qatar
Leba
non
Bahra
inJo
rdan
Countries
% o
f the
pop
ulat
ion
Declining Adult Illiteracy (1960-2008)
87
75
65
54
4338,5
34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
60 71 82 94 04 06 08Année
taux d'analphabétisme
Source : Bilan 2007-2008 et Enquête nationale sur l’analphabétisme, la non scolarisation et la déscolarisation au
Maroc, décembre 2006, Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Alphabétisation et à l’Education Non Formelle
Literacy Rates (10+) Morocco: Distribution by gender and residence (2004)
Source : Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Alphabétisation et à l’Education Non Formelle, bilan 2004-2005.
Residence
Gender
Urban
Rural
Total
Male
81,2
54
69,2
Female
60,5
25,5
45,3
Total
70,6
39,5
57
Literacy Rates (10+ ) Morocco Distribution by income group and gender
Income quintile Gender
I II III IV V
Total
Male
42.4
50.2
56.8
66.6
81.6
60.5
Female
16.5
19.5
28.9
37.4
52.4
31.7
Total
28.3
34.6
42.0
50.9
66.6
45.3
Note: Groupe de revenu (quintile) base sur estimation des dépenses par habitant. Quintile I représente le niveau de dépenses le plus faible. Quintile V représente le niveau de dépenses le plus élevé. Source: Données issues de l’Ennvm 1991.
Quality of Learning
TIMSS 2003 : Results for Grade 8
TIMSS 2007 : Results in mathematics
TIMSS 2007 : Results in science
Internal & External Efficiency
Drop Out RatesPrimary and Lower Secondary (1991-2006)
Drop Out RatesUpper Secondary Education 1991-2006
Repeater RatesDistribution by level (1991-2006)
Unemployment and levels of educational attainment i n MoroccoDistribution by residence
Unemploment rates by level of educational attainmen t Maghreb 2005
Source : Ammour, L. (2006). « Changement social et immobilisme politique au Maghreb central ». In Dufourcq, J. & L. Borgomano-Loup (Eds). Le Maghreb stratégique (2ème partie). Rome. NATO Defense College. NDC Occasional Papers Series.
Level of Educational Attainment Country
None
Primary
Secondary
Higher
Share of youth (15-29) in overall unemployment (en %)
Algeria
10
30
30
68
67
Morocco
9
28
31
38
39
Tunisia
10
21
16
8
69
Education as a « Ticket to Nowhere »
"Literacy and education are for many a ticket to nowhere. The longer this phenomenon persists, the more likely a growing disillusionment with such skills will set in, with undoubtedly drastic long-term results".
Lavy, Spratt & Leboucher (1995: 29)
Symptoms of multidimensional crisis
Educational Crisis in Morocco
• Incomplete and inequitable access to basic education
• High graduate unemployment
• The paradox of public spending in education
Growth in public educational expenditure (1966-1995 )
Year
MoE
Budget (current)
(1)
CPI
(average)
(2)
MoE
Budget (adjusted)
(3)
Growth in Spending
(in real terms)
(4)
Pop.
Growth Rate
(5)
Growth in Spending (per cap)
(6)
GDP
(per cap)
(7)
1966
523
100
523
1.0
1.0
-
1.0
1970
669
133.0
503
0.962
1.10
- 0.04
1.095
1976
2547
188.7
1349.8
2.58
1.28
1.30
1.26
1980
3529
238.2
1481.5
2.83
1.41
1.42
1.37
1985
6079
340.4
1785.8
3.41
1.60
1.81
1.54
1990
10187
486.4
2094.4
4.0
1.82
2.18
1.73
1995
15215
695.0
2189.2
4.19
2.07
2.12
1.93
Note: Data based on a rate of inflation of 5.9 percent for 1965-1980 and of 7.4 percent for 1980-1989 (World Development Report: The World Bank, 1990). Key: (1) MoE budget in current prices (000,000 Dh.). (2) Average Consumer Price Index. (3) MoE budget adjusted to 1966 Dh. (000,000 Dh.). (4) Rate of growth of public expenditure in real terms. (5) Rate of demographic growth in terms of the 1966 population. (6) Rate of per capita public expenditure in real terms. (7) Rate of growth of GDP per capita.
Growth in primary educational expenditure
1966-1995
Year
MoE Budget
(current)
MoE Budget (adjusted)
Growth of
Educational Spending
Per Capita
Educational Spending
GDP
Per capita
1966
303.7
303.7
1.0
-
1.0
1970
313.4
235.6
0.775
-0.325
1.095
1976
864.7
458.2
1.508
0.228
1.26
1981
1801.3
704.2
2.318
0.872
1.41
1988
3192.3
757.0
2.492
0.764
1.649
1995
5010.7
721.0
2.374
0.304
1.93
Note: All figures adjusted to 1966.
Causes of non-take up of primary schooling in Morocco Urban/rural disaggregation Causes (% of total)
Urban
Rural
Total
1
Provision of schooling
6.3
25.8
23.7
2
Economic constraints
39.7
39.4
39.4
3
Attitudes and values
13.5
22.6
21.6
4
Family difficulties
14.3
6.2
7.0
5
Other factors
33.2
6.7
9.4
Source : Based on Moroccan Living Standards Measurement Survey data . Note (1) = Local school unavailable (2) = Lack of money and demand for child work within or outside the family. (3) = Negative attitudes towards schooling & benefits, lack of interest.
3. Explaining the educational crisis
• The weight of history : colonial heritage
• The high incidence of poverty
• Weak strategic sector management
• Inequitable educational policies
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