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m b .a ~ Dav-id 08- Stewart K. Fischer Eric R. Gmdes aummrrmm Probabilistic Wety ~ t lbfwal Meeting (I%A ‘Y6J ~--=3: 19% Park City, Utnh A:amos National Laboratory Akmms, New Mexico 87545 mwluBunm OF THls DocUMEw W WMITED MASTER

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  • m b

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    ~ Dav-id 08-Stewart K. FischerEric R. Gmdes

    aummrrmm Probabilistic Wety ~ t lbfwal Meeting (I%A ‘Y6J

    ~--=3: 19%Park City, Utnh

    A:amos National LaboratoryAkmms, New Mexico 87545

    mwluBunm OF THls DocUMEw W WMITED MASTER

    About This ReportThis official electronic version was created by scanning the best available paper or microfiche copy of the original report at a 300 dpi resolution. Original color illustrations appear as black and white images.

    For additional information or comments, contact:

    Library Without Walls Project Los Alamos National Laboratory Research LibraryLos Alamos, NM 87544 Phone: (505)667-4448 E-mail: [email protected]

  • QUANTITATIVE HAZAXU ASSESSMENT OF A US LXPiWIMENT OF ENERGYNUCLEAR EXPM)SWE OPERATION

    Ihw+d OiMUL acetvanR Fldter. am?Eric R. GedesPmbdJWStic Risk ad Xazsud AmIlyds Group&q@er@ Scknce and AfJ@[catlom Group

    L4MMan-ns NatkmaI Labtumog

    ABsTRAcr

    QUdJlildli\-C H ~. ts (Q-1 arcb;ng wed to supporthe US &ptIIUJJenLuf Encrg}-Megr4cd SafetyPrcws56S21 J.Nuclem Expksive Way %dy Group.d Envirunmentd Sdetyand Hedtb muauw- Tbe W& dreused 10 idcmih tidds dssumatedwilh tIuclc8rcdhiwOpel-awns In\-ol\”ltlgtdlng-d pmcdurd proccsbei -

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    The SS-21progrJIIuwas LLscdto itmgnitehe ab~ LofhulrdswldldxtheWhy of nuclearexplosive Opelariotls Tbrce ~ of he specific nucsurWUmceplUce55hnvcbetmpcrfortnedorllte inpt’ogmss.

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    - A bdsdme hazard~umt of currentoperatiom to fares efforis on A reducmm andus-k overall unprovcmentfoUowng process rcdesgn IirJ~i.

    o A tt’11~ ~ Loi bawds presentm ~mnceptud and id aoluuom to unpru~c delj-1m progrcssl.

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    L l!’uTRODUCIIOIN

    The lmqmrcd SzfcL)-Process iSS.2 IIprqyu’m which tntegrnks cnwmumm. SW@. and ltd[h(ES&LHJ A nucleurcxplowe sday reqwctttents undsr it single program.USC%tptmmmve kc-.GSCM?WnLSfOHA%Ju kicnufy ucaclctm duu be cbepotential for wxl(er inyu’yand puhlk hdth wcnwunmem.d unpiw. Tk SS -2I programrc uuts the hzard ~wnenl m ~mmtc [ti-ormmlontoMJPIYUIIthe Wlwmg requircmem- cvaluatfiL hkcltumd of accident scquauwi duu hmw thewad fur wrker cmmbh IJUUryurcnmumncttud tkunqm. tdenmy ukty.cnncul toohng muPruccdurul>lc~h ldcnuf} IuPCIMUUIldwfcl; ~unmh. ldcnul~ 3KiCt~-C!A%’~hl~niIiL~l+ *utm. Mmcturo

  • DECLAIMER

    Portionsof thisdocumentmaybe illegiblein electronicimageproducts Images areproducedfrom the b- availableoriginaldocument.

  • ad. r.%.idmlify dofnmant uidenr Sqmcu. dammame that he hdlq SE.@ Aal}s~=dcs@-b&sis mdeflf alvcbps pfoms-spcitk =ldcnu: ad pmlllcc a hzard AmKiHMJtim&dM~fti-%~~ld*im

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    u PROGRAM G’(MI4

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    Flgum 1. IntcgratodHazad Asscssmcnt Prcwxs

    A- EIAPrcpamt&lo

    TIN suaxss of u QHA relics heavily on rimconqmsinon and competency of the analysts IaanLavailatnlily of infmnanon 8baul ho ~ dm bards assocd wnh the mchwdumlcoqmnom;=ihncs m wluch h process takes

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    Soathaldon on and nunmuzauon of acnvnws with Ihcpotcmml usigndkanl rids.

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    I. flow charlmg the proccm,‘ mtull acmdml-sqcncc klcnulkamm,

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  • Table 1. Consqucncc sCVCri~ hqyrics

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    Afccr the Chingsmat could go wscm$ IMw ban ukmifd. it M ~ toC3LMS. whim add cause [Ix

    dcmmunc thempossibleIhc MCXXXX’ Whaf could cause* opcmor

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    aklhllnthc for rcslloval? TM Spcclfx c-s IEcd 10m dcvclqlcd Innlfrlmcm d m dmn CUIWICS Of k probatnluy of me CVCUI.In some c4x3. I: may & pusMblcimap@xcdcv crutohawhccn caucdby. orzpodkkby. ~cowmbuungcwntataprcwau> sudynode. In such ~ W adyst should rccxammc* mwim oi the andyms of ti mudy mxk [0dclcsmu= dnxhcr such● cormbwmg cvmu could II=* awed m csnmxc IC prohabduy

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  • c. .A.u51kt&J~ QL—lifii . .

  • IV. CONDUCT OF PEELWXNARY NUCLEAR Ex?lmmE HAZARD ASESmEm

    V. RESULTS OF mEuMrNAEu’ HAZARD ASESSMmi

    lWc 3. I%tcnualPnxzs- Uclatcd ACZUknL% Mu NLEXCWlixphmc ~ > Opcmtlms.

  • W Iuuud ~num team will h oompkrmg die pmhminaty QHA M ihe bsdiru -s hy-zheend of Sqwmber 1996whik prwidmg cmn[inuowf~ w momhly memm ●d Ilm?fillgsm thepmaess&sign teanMcmanyidditimal problemareas dlscmemd.Thispmhrm&y QHA will prowk arisk mnking of potemial accidems using Table 2 and -imates of dw Iikelhood ad mmquences of ;bc‘kiedkd potential Xidents. in addiuon. hazard Gsstssmmn1 Ieam nwnhers ale park:pan[s on Ik●ariws proi~s deqgn teams. This wiU allow Ihe proce3s design [cams m be kept abrdas[ of mfwrniimifrom ihe badi~- hauwd ~menl a= wdl as wide feedback on tiypis dcvahud by [W [cants

    REFERENCES