manpower employment outlook survey: united states - q3, 2004
TRANSCRIPT
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3rd Quarter 2004
Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyUnited States
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
The United States Employment Outlook
Contents
United States Employment Outlook 2
The Americas Employment Outlook 14
Global Employment Outlook 16
About the Survey 18
About Manpower 19
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Increase Decrease No Change Dont KnowNet Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
Adjusted
% % % % % %
3rd Quarter 2003 20 9 65 6 11 7
4th Quarter 2003 22 11 62 5 11 10
1st Quarter 2004 20 13 61 6 7 14
2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20
3rd Quarter 2004 30 6 59 5 24 20
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
Employment Outlook is 24%. Fifty-nine percent of
employers surveyed foresee no change in job prospects,
and 5% are unsure of their hiring expectations.
Without seasonal adjustments to the data, the third
quarter forecast is slightly more positive than the
April June period. With seasonal variations removed
from the survey results, the employment outlook for the
coming quarter is identical to the second quarter and
represents one of the largest year-over-year increases
in the surveys history.
Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with
employers across the United States to measure
anticipated employment trends between July and
September 2004. All participants were asked, How
do you anticipate total employment at your location to
change in the three months to the end of September
2004 as compared to the current quarter?
Of the U.S. employers that were surveyed, 30% expect
to add to their payrolls in the third quarter, while 6%
predict a decline in staff levels. Thus, the Net
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Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
% % % %%%
Construction 39 4 52 355 21
Education 24 12 60 12 164
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 4 67 5 20 19
Manufacturing Durables 32 8 55 5 24 21
Manufacturing Non-Durables 30 6 59 5 2124
Mining 32 6 61 1 2126
Public Administration 20 8 66 12 86
Services 30 5 60 5 25 22
Transportation & Public Utilities 24 5 65 6 19 18
Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 5 56 5 29 22
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/ 0.8%.
Net Employment SeasonallyIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % %
Midwest
Northeast 29 6 58 7 23 18
29 5 61 5 24 22
30 6 61 3 24 18
South
West 33 6 55 6 27 23
% %
On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in seven of the
10 industry sectors surveyed intend to increase hiring
activity from the second quarter. Education is the sector in
which job prospects are expected to improve the greatest,
compared with the April June outlook.
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services and Public Administration
employers plan to hire at a pace similar to the second
quarter, while those in the Construction sector voice weaker
hiring intentions. Although Construction employers are not
as optimistic as they were in the second quarter, it is
important to note that they still foresee a strong hiring pace
for the July September period.
Across all 10 industry sectors, job prospects for the third
quarter are significantly stronger than they were last year
at this time.
Job prospects in three of the four regions, the Northeast,
Midwest and South, are similar to those reported in
the second quarter, according to the seasonally
adjusted survey results. Employers in the West are
slightly more optimistic in their hiring outlook than they
were from April to June. Hiring activity within each of the
regions is expected to be considerably stronger than it
was a year ago.
Employers in the West are the most optimistic in
their hiring forecast, compared with other regions.
The employment outlook in the Northeast and Midwest
is identical and the weakest of the regions.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Regional Comparisons
Midwest
Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
%%%%% %
All Industries 30 6 61 3 24 18
Construction 45 5 48 2 40 20
Education 1521 62 2 6 9
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 4 73 3 16 15
Manufacturing Durables 32 9 56 3 23 18
Manufacturing Non-Durables 31 6 60 3 25 21
Mining 29 0 71 0 1729
Public Administration 19 10 66 5 9 3
Services 28 4 65 3 24 19
Transportation & Public Utilities 27 665 2 22 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 4 58 4 30 20
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35
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,
Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.
Of the employers surveyed in the Midwest, 30% predict
an increase in employment opportunities, while 6% plan
a decrease in job prospects, resulting in a Net Employment
Outlook of 24%. The Midwest hiring forecast is identical
to that of the Northeast and is among the weakest of the
U.S. regions, according to the seasonally adjusted data.
Employer confidence in the Midwest is similar to second
quarter levels but dramatically up from a year ago.
The third quarter employment outlook for the Midwest is
significantly stronger than it was a year ago across each
of the 10 industry sectors, except Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate where the forecast is the same as it was last year
at this time.
Quarter over quarter, employers in the Midwest are
mixed in their hiring intentions. A mild decrease in hiring
activity over the second quarter is anticipated in four of
the 10 industry sectors, including Construction, Durable
Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Public
Administration. Job prospects in Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing and Services are flat, while those in
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Education are slightly
more positive. Employers in Transportation/Public Utilities
and Mining report the most improved hiring plans for the
third quarter.
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Net EmploymentOutlook
SeasonallyAdjusted
Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 6 58 7 1823
Construction 33 553 9 30 15
Education 22 5 67 6 17 21
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 26 5 63 6 21 19
Manufacturing Durables 30 6 57 7 24 21
Manufacturing Non-Durables 29 7 22 17
Mining 0 25 -25 -13
Public Administration 21 13 8 5
Services 31 5 26 19
Transportation & Public Utilities 22 7
58
75
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57
63
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8 15 14
Wholesale & Retail Trade 33 7 51 9 26 19
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Northeast
The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.
In the Northeast, 29% of employers polled anticipate a
stronger hiring pace in the third quarter, while 6% plan to
decrease employment levels. This creates a Net
Employment Outlook of 23%. The Northeast job forecast
mirrors that of the Midwest and is among the weakest of
the U.S. regions, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Employers in the Northeast expect to hire at a similar
pace as the second quarter. This pace is significantly
stronger than it was a year ago in every industry sector
but Mining where only a slight increase in hiring is
expected year over year.
Job seekers in the Northeast are likely to find a major
improvement in job prospects in the Education sector.
Three years have passed since Education employers
were so optimistic about their hiring plans. Job prospects
across the Manufacturing and Transportation/Public
Utilities sectors are slightly better than they were in the
second quarter, while hiring in the Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate, Services and Public Administration sectors is
expected to be flat. Wholesale/Retail Trade employers
are less optimistic about hiring than in the second
quarter, while those within the Construction sector report
much weaker hiring plans.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
South
Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 5 61 5 24 22
Construction 38 542 6 36 29
Education 27 8 60 5 19 22
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 4 65 7 20 19
Manufacturing Durables 31 8 55 6 23 19
Manufacturing Non-Durables 29 6 61 4 23 21
Mining 31 6 61 2 25 23
Public Administration 19 695 7 14 12
Services 31 5 60 4 26 25
Transportation & Public Utilities 20 685 7 15 15
Wholesale & Retail Trade 32 4 58 6 28 24
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30
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
Twenty-nine percent of employers surveyed in the South
foresee an increase in employment, and 5% expect a
decline in their payrolls. The result is a Net Employment
Outlook of 24%. According to the seasonally adjusted
survey results, employment prospects in the South are
among the strongest in the nation, placing second to the
West by a very small margin. The job forecast is consistent
with projections from the second quarter and much more
promising than a year ago.
Employers in each of the 10 industries surveyed expressed
greater optimism about hiring than last year at this time.
Compared to the second quarter, Education employers
expressed the biggest jump in hiring intentions, indicating
a return to hiring activity not seen in four years. Stronger
job prospects are also expected this quarter in Mining,
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and Services. Hiring
intentions are similar to the second quarter in Construction,
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate. Employers in Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Public Administration and Transportation/Public Utilities
are slightly less optimistic than in the second quarter.
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West
Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
% % % % % %
All Industries 33 6 55 6 27 23
Construction 38 7 52 3 31 18
Education 25 18 54 3 7 10
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 30 4 59 7 26 24
Manufacturing Durables 38 8 48 6 30 28
Manufacturing Non-Durables 32 8 52 8 24 21
Mining 44 6 50 0 38 27
Public Administration 23 8 64 5 15 12
Services 33 5 55 7 28 24
Transportation & Public Utilities 30 4 59 7 26 23
Wholesale & Retail Trade 37 4 54 5 33 26
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
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The West Region is comprised of the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,
Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
Among employers surveyed in the West, 33% plan to
increase the hiring pace while 6% plan a decrease in
job activity, which equals a Net Employment Outlook of
27%. When seasonal variations are removed from the
data, the job outlook in the West is the strongest
among the four U.S. regions. Employers are slightly
more optimistic about hiring than in the second quarter
and markedly more confident than last year at this time.
Employers in eight out of the10 sectors surveyed plan
an increase in the hiring pace from the April June
period. The largest quarter-over-quarter hiring increases
are expected in the Mining, Durable Goods
Manufacturing and Public Administration sectors. In fact,
government employers havent been this optimistic
about hiring plans in more than two years. Employers in
the majority of industry sectors expect a slight increase
in hiring, including those in Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
and Education. A decline in hiring intentions is
anticipated in the Services and Construction sectors,
while healthy job prospects are forecast across all
sectors compared with survey results from last year
at this time.
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Construction
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10152025303540
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Employers in the Construction sector report promising
job prospects. Although the hiring pace is expected to
be slower than it was in the second quarter, job
seekers are likely to find solid employment opportunitiesagain this quarter. Hiring projections are noticeably
improved from a year ago.
When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
trends in regional hiring plans emerge. By a wide
margin, employers in the South are more optimistic
about their hiring plans than the other regions. Employersin the Northeast foresee the slowest hiring pace.
Education
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
The third quarter employment outlook for the Education
sector marks a three-year high, according to seasonally
adjusted data. Employers anticipate moderately stronger
hiring over the second quarter and a vast improvement
over last year at this time when job losses were predicted.
Employers in the South expect to offer the most
promising job prospects, while those in the Midwest
report the weakest hiring intentions.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Manufacturing Durable Goods
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Strong hiring intentions are apparent again this quarter
in Durable Goods Manufacturing. Employers expect a
slight increase in hiring over the second quarter and
considerably improved job prospects compared with
a year ago.
According to seasonally adjusted data, employers in
the West are most optimistic about hiring. Compared
with the other regions, employers in the Midwest are
least likely to take on staff.
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
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25
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
For the fourth consecutive quarter, Finance/Insurance/
Real Estate employers expect a steady improvement in
the hiring pace, according to seasonally adjusted
survey results. Hiring plans are slightly more optimisticthan in the second quarter survey and stronger than
a year ago.
Regional hiring patterns are the same as those reported
in the second quarter. Job seekers in the West are likely
to find more employers hiring than those in other
regions. Employers in the Midwest are least likely toincrease staff levels.
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Mining
Employers in the Mining sector plan to hire at a strong
pace in the coming quarter, resulting in the most
optimistic employment outlook in three years for the
sector. On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers
expect a moderate increase in hiring over the second
quarter and a considerable jump compared with last
year at this time.
Hiring intentions in the Mining sector are strongest in
the West. For the second straight quarter, the least
promising outlook is in the Northeast, where job losses
are anticipated, although at a slower pace than in the
second quarter.
Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
For the third quarter, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers
anticipate a steady hiring pace, according to seasonally
adjusted data. The employment outlook suggests a
slight increase in hiring activity over the second quarter,and a significant boost from a year ago.
Hiring expectations are consistent across the regions.
Employers in the South, West and Midwest plan to hire
at the same pace. Employers in the Northeast are least
optimistic about hiring.
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Public Administration
According to seasonally adjusted data, Public
Administration employers expect some hiring to take
place during the July September period. After more
than two years of ups and downs, hiring expectationsfor the coming quarter are stable with projections that
are identical to those reported in the second quarter
survey, but considerably better than a year ago.
Employers in the South and West expressed the most
confidence about hiring for the third quarter, while
employers in the Midwest are more reserved in their
staffing plans.
-10-5
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25
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Services
0
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25
30
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
the employment outlook for the services sector is
among the most positive across the 10 sectors
surveyed. Employers revealed hiring plans in line with
those issued in the second quarter and are much more
optimistic than a year ago at this time.
For the third quarter, employers in the South are most
likely to add staff, and those in the Midwest have the
weakest hiring intentions.
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Wholesale & Retail Trade
-15-10
-505
101520253035
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Transportation & Public Utilities
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
The seasonally adjusted data suggests that the
Transportation/Public Utilities sector is headed for
another quarter of healthy hiring. Compared to the
second quarter, a similar number of employers intend to
take on more staff, while job prospects are significantly
better than last year at this time.
Job seekers in the West are likely to have the best job
prospects, while those in the Northeast are expected to
face the most challenging job search.
The third quarter employment outlook indicates strong
hiring plans among Wholesale/Retail Trade employers.
According to seasonally adjusted data, the hiring pace
is expected to be similar to the second quarter and
substantially better than a year ago.The Wholesale/Retail
Trade outlook is one of the strongest among the
industries surveyed.
Wholesale/Retail Trade employers in the West are most
optimistic about hiring, while those in the Northeast
report the most conservative plans.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
The Americas Employment OutlookOver 21,000 interviews have been conducted across the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure anticipated
employment trends between July and September 2004.
International Comparisons
Comparing the data over time, we can see the strong
seasonal hiring variations that occur in Canadas
employment hiring levels due to changes in climate.
The third quarter sees the positive hiring trend in
Canada continue to improve as the climate remains
mild. There are less dramatic seasonal shifts when
comparing the United States and Mexico: a continued
alignment in the two countries historical employment
forecasts is evident.
1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity
for the United States.
Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know Net Employment Outlook
% % % % %
Canada 31 6 60 3 25
Mexico 26 12 61 1 14
United States 30 6 59 5 24 (20)1
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3035
United States (Seasonally Adjusted)MexicoCanada
Q42002
Q32004
Q12003
Q22003
Q32003
Q42003
Q12004
Q22004
The three nations in the Americas are currently moving
in unison. Overall, the job outlook is positive and in the
case of Canada and the United States, a slight
improvement over last quarter. Canada posted the
regions strongest Net Employment Outlook for the
second consecutive quarter. Employers in the United
States are reporting slightly more positive hiring
intentions for the three months ahead. Employment
prospects in Mexico are expected to be stable.
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Sector Comparisons
In Mexico, employers in the Industry sector have
predicted a slight quarter-over-quarter fall in job
prospects. Mexican employers and American
employers in the Services sector are anticipating anincrease in prospects of three percentage points
compared to last quarter.
2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.
Canada
%
26
Net Employment Outlook
Industry Services
%
23
Q2 2004
%
25
Q2 2004
%
23
United States 2424 2126
Mexico 1418 1116
Q3 2004 Q3 2004
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
Industry and Services. Positive hiring intentions are
expected across the region in both the Industry andServices categories. Canadian and American employers
in both sectors intend to increase or maintain
employment levels over the next three months.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Global Employment OutlookOver 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated
employment trends between July and September 2004.
Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change
Americas Q2 to Q3 2004
Canada 1
Mexico 0
United States
Q2 2004
%
24
14
22 (20)1
Q3 2004
%
25
14
24 (20)1 2
Net Employment Outlook
Asia Pacific
Australia 1
Hong Kong 7
Japan -11New Zealand
Q3 2004
%
17
23
930 -9
Singapore 198 11
Qtr on Qtr Change
Q2 to Q3 2004
%
18
16
2039
Q2 2004
Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change
Europe Q2 to Q3 2004
Austria -9
Belgium 2
France 0
Germany 0
Ireland 9
Netherlands 2
Norway 3
Spain 5
Sweden -1
UK -2
Italy
Q2 2004
%
11
9
4
-4
9
4
7
9
17
16 (13)1
5
Q3 2004
%
2
11
4
-4
18
6
10
14
16
14 (12)1
5 0
1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for the UK
and United States.
Regional and International ComparisonsWhen seasonal variations are removed from the United
States and UK data, the UK results are positive
although slightly down on the forecast from the
previous quarter. Job prospects in the United States
continue to be positive and are indicative of stable
hiring patterns to come.
Employers in 16 of 19 countries expect more hiring
compared to last year at this time. Job prospects are
anticipated to be strongest in New Zealand, Canada,
the United States and Hong Kong for the quarter
ahead. Only German employers reported a negative
outlook, which remains unchanged from hiring levels
reported in the second-quarter survey.
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Sector Comparisons
2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport, Storage & Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services, and Public Administration.
Canada
%
26
Net Employment Outlook
Industry Services
Americas
%
23
Q2 2004
%
25
Q2 2004
%
23
United States 2424 2126
Mexico 1418 1116
Q3 2004 Q3 2004
%%
Japan 20 11
Net Employment Outlook
Industry Services
Asia Pacific
%
21
Q2 2004 Q2 2004
%
Australia 18 1719 16
Hong Kong 17 2813 13
6
New Zealand 40 3237 27
Singapore 9 225 9
Q3 2004 Q3 2004
%%
Ireland 817 2112
Italy 63 74
Net Employment Outlook
Industry Services
Europe
%
Q2 2004 Q2 2004
%
France 2 4 54
Germany -3 -3-6 -4
Austria 2617 1
Belgium 9 119 9
Norway 910 102
Netherlands 68 62
UK 1614 1312
Sweden 1822 1517
Spain 9 199 5
Q3 2004 Q3 2004
Similarly, in the Industry category, job prospects are
expected to be positive in all countries with only
Germany reporting a negative Net Employment Outlook.
Strongest prospects for Industry are anticipated forthe second consecutive quarter in New Zealand, the
United States and Canada. Notably, Industry employers
in Sweden are also anticipating one of the most
optimistic forecasts for the third quarter.
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
Industry and Services. All of the countries surveyed,
except Germany, are predicting positive hiring activityin both categories. Employers in the Services category
in New Zealand, Hong Kong, Canada, the United
States, Singapore and Ireland are most optimistic,
while employers in Germany, Austria, France and the
Netherlands are less positive.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
About the SurveyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or
decrease the number of employees in their workforce during
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40
years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employmentactivity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of
the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
of focus.
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the
only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast
employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys
and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what
occurred in the past.
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived
all of its information from a single question.
Independent:The survey is conducted with a representative
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
Manpowers customer base.
Robust:The survey is based on interviews with more than
35,000 public and private employers across 19 national
economies to measure anticipated employment trends each
quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.
Methodology
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using
a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 19
countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted
includes Manpowers Market Intelligence team; the Research &
Diagnostics Division of The Empower Group an independent
operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and Grupo
IDM. The survey has been structured to be representative of
each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.2%.
In the United States, the national survey is conducted by
Manpowers North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the
margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.
Survey Question
All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
the same question, How do you anticipate total employment
at your location to change in the three months to the end of
September 2004 as compared to the current quarter?
Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term Net Employment
Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.
The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
Seasonal Adjustment
Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for the
United States and United Kingdom to provide additional insight
into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to
review the data without the employment fluctuations thatnormally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a
clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add
seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the
future, as more historical data is compiled.
Sectors
The industry sectors that are reported for each country in this
report are representative of the local economy. In some areas
of the report, we have reported the data in two broad sector
categories: Industry and Services. These categories are
consistent with standards of other respected international data
sources. The Industry category includes sectors such as:
construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The
Services category includes wholesale and retail trade;
restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;
communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other business
services and public administration.
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History of the Survey
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
1966 Manpowers UK operation launches the equivalent of
the United States survey, naming the report the
Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey
adopts the same forward-looking research format as the
United States survey and is the first of its kind in
Europe.
1976 2nd generation of Manpowers Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
Research methodology is updated to evolve with
advancements in the field of market research.
2002 Manpower UKs Quarterly Survey of Employment
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
methodology. Manpowers operations in Mexico and
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium,
Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain,
Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
employment services industry, offering customers a continuum of
services to meet their needs throughout the employment and
business cycle. The company specializes in permanent,
temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment;training; career transition and organizational consulting services.
Manpowers worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries
and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its
400,000 customers per year, including small and medium size
enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the worlds largest
multinational corporations. The focus of Manpowers work is on
raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-
reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core
business activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, the
company operates under the brand names of Right
Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan, Brook Street
and Empower. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at
www.manpower.com.
In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of
HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial
and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower
Professional brand, the company places contract professionals
on assignment in areas such as information technology,
scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More
information about Manpowers US operation can be found at
www.us.manpower.com.
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8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q3, 2004
20/20
Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 5321
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com
2004 M I All i ht d