manpower employment outlook survey: united states - q3, 2004

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  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q3, 2004

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    3rd Quarter 2004

    Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyUnited States

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    The United States Employment Outlook

    Contents

    United States Employment Outlook 2

    The Americas Employment Outlook 14

    Global Employment Outlook 16

    About the Survey 18

    About Manpower 19

    -5

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    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    Increase Decrease No Change Dont KnowNet Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    Adjusted

    % % % % % %

    3rd Quarter 2003 20 9 65 6 11 7

    4th Quarter 2003 22 11 62 5 11 10

    1st Quarter 2004 20 13 61 6 7 14

    2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20

    3rd Quarter 2004 30 6 59 5 24 20

    The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

    Employment Outlook is 24%. Fifty-nine percent of

    employers surveyed foresee no change in job prospects,

    and 5% are unsure of their hiring expectations.

    Without seasonal adjustments to the data, the third

    quarter forecast is slightly more positive than the

    April June period. With seasonal variations removed

    from the survey results, the employment outlook for the

    coming quarter is identical to the second quarter and

    represents one of the largest year-over-year increases

    in the surveys history.

    Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with

    employers across the United States to measure

    anticipated employment trends between July and

    September 2004. All participants were asked, How

    do you anticipate total employment at your location to

    change in the three months to the end of September

    2004 as compared to the current quarter?

    Of the U.S. employers that were surveyed, 30% expect

    to add to their payrolls in the third quarter, while 6%

    predict a decline in staff levels. Thus, the Net

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    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % %%%

    Construction 39 4 52 355 21

    Education 24 12 60 12 164

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 4 67 5 20 19

    Manufacturing Durables 32 8 55 5 24 21

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 30 6 59 5 2124

    Mining 32 6 61 1 2126

    Public Administration 20 8 66 12 86

    Services 30 5 60 5 25 22

    Transportation & Public Utilities 24 5 65 6 19 18

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 5 56 5 29 22

    At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/ 0.8%.

    Net Employment SeasonallyIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    Outlook Adjusted

    % % % %

    Midwest

    Northeast 29 6 58 7 23 18

    29 5 61 5 24 22

    30 6 61 3 24 18

    South

    West 33 6 55 6 27 23

    % %

    On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in seven of the

    10 industry sectors surveyed intend to increase hiring

    activity from the second quarter. Education is the sector in

    which job prospects are expected to improve the greatest,

    compared with the April June outlook.

    Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services and Public Administration

    employers plan to hire at a pace similar to the second

    quarter, while those in the Construction sector voice weaker

    hiring intentions. Although Construction employers are not

    as optimistic as they were in the second quarter, it is

    important to note that they still foresee a strong hiring pace

    for the July September period.

    Across all 10 industry sectors, job prospects for the third

    quarter are significantly stronger than they were last year

    at this time.

    Job prospects in three of the four regions, the Northeast,

    Midwest and South, are similar to those reported in

    the second quarter, according to the seasonally

    adjusted survey results. Employers in the West are

    slightly more optimistic in their hiring outlook than they

    were from April to June. Hiring activity within each of the

    regions is expected to be considerably stronger than it

    was a year ago.

    Employers in the West are the most optimistic in

    their hiring forecast, compared with other regions.

    The employment outlook in the Northeast and Midwest

    is identical and the weakest of the regions.

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Regional Comparisons

    Midwest

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    %%%%% %

    All Industries 30 6 61 3 24 18

    Construction 45 5 48 2 40 20

    Education 1521 62 2 6 9

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 4 73 3 16 15

    Manufacturing Durables 32 9 56 3 23 18

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 31 6 60 3 25 21

    Mining 29 0 71 0 1729

    Public Administration 19 10 66 5 9 3

    Services 28 4 65 3 24 19

    Transportation & Public Utilities 27 665 2 22 20

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 4 58 4 30 20

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    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,

    Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

    Of the employers surveyed in the Midwest, 30% predict

    an increase in employment opportunities, while 6% plan

    a decrease in job prospects, resulting in a Net Employment

    Outlook of 24%. The Midwest hiring forecast is identical

    to that of the Northeast and is among the weakest of the

    U.S. regions, according to the seasonally adjusted data.

    Employer confidence in the Midwest is similar to second

    quarter levels but dramatically up from a year ago.

    The third quarter employment outlook for the Midwest is

    significantly stronger than it was a year ago across each

    of the 10 industry sectors, except Finance/Insurance/Real

    Estate where the forecast is the same as it was last year

    at this time.

    Quarter over quarter, employers in the Midwest are

    mixed in their hiring intentions. A mild decrease in hiring

    activity over the second quarter is anticipated in four of

    the 10 industry sectors, including Construction, Durable

    Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Public

    Administration. Job prospects in Non-Durable Goods

    Manufacturing and Services are flat, while those in

    Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Education are slightly

    more positive. Employers in Transportation/Public Utilities

    and Mining report the most improved hiring plans for the

    third quarter.

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    Net EmploymentOutlook

    SeasonallyAdjusted

    Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 29 6 58 7 1823

    Construction 33 553 9 30 15

    Education 22 5 67 6 17 21

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 26 5 63 6 21 19

    Manufacturing Durables 30 6 57 7 24 21

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 29 7 22 17

    Mining 0 25 -25 -13

    Public Administration 21 13 8 5

    Services 31 5 26 19

    Transportation & Public Utilities 22 7

    58

    75

    59

    57

    63

    6

    0

    7

    7

    8 15 14

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 33 7 51 9 26 19

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    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    Northeast

    The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,

    Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.

    In the Northeast, 29% of employers polled anticipate a

    stronger hiring pace in the third quarter, while 6% plan to

    decrease employment levels. This creates a Net

    Employment Outlook of 23%. The Northeast job forecast

    mirrors that of the Midwest and is among the weakest of

    the U.S. regions, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

    Employers in the Northeast expect to hire at a similar

    pace as the second quarter. This pace is significantly

    stronger than it was a year ago in every industry sector

    but Mining where only a slight increase in hiring is

    expected year over year.

    Job seekers in the Northeast are likely to find a major

    improvement in job prospects in the Education sector.

    Three years have passed since Education employers

    were so optimistic about their hiring plans. Job prospects

    across the Manufacturing and Transportation/Public

    Utilities sectors are slightly better than they were in the

    second quarter, while hiring in the Finance/Insurance/Real

    Estate, Services and Public Administration sectors is

    expected to be flat. Wholesale/Retail Trade employers

    are less optimistic about hiring than in the second

    quarter, while those within the Construction sector report

    much weaker hiring plans.

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    South

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 29 5 61 5 24 22

    Construction 38 542 6 36 29

    Education 27 8 60 5 19 22

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 4 65 7 20 19

    Manufacturing Durables 31 8 55 6 23 19

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 29 6 61 4 23 21

    Mining 31 6 61 2 25 23

    Public Administration 19 695 7 14 12

    Services 31 5 60 4 26 25

    Transportation & Public Utilities 20 685 7 15 15

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 32 4 58 6 28 24

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,

    Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

    Twenty-nine percent of employers surveyed in the South

    foresee an increase in employment, and 5% expect a

    decline in their payrolls. The result is a Net Employment

    Outlook of 24%. According to the seasonally adjusted

    survey results, employment prospects in the South are

    among the strongest in the nation, placing second to the

    West by a very small margin. The job forecast is consistent

    with projections from the second quarter and much more

    promising than a year ago.

    Employers in each of the 10 industries surveyed expressed

    greater optimism about hiring than last year at this time.

    Compared to the second quarter, Education employers

    expressed the biggest jump in hiring intentions, indicating

    a return to hiring activity not seen in four years. Stronger

    job prospects are also expected this quarter in Mining,

    Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and Services. Hiring

    intentions are similar to the second quarter in Construction,

    Wholesale/Retail Trade and Finance/Insurance/Real

    Estate. Employers in Durable Goods Manufacturing,

    Public Administration and Transportation/Public Utilities

    are slightly less optimistic than in the second quarter.

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    West

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 33 6 55 6 27 23

    Construction 38 7 52 3 31 18

    Education 25 18 54 3 7 10

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 30 4 59 7 26 24

    Manufacturing Durables 38 8 48 6 30 28

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 32 8 52 8 24 21

    Mining 44 6 50 0 38 27

    Public Administration 23 8 64 5 15 12

    Services 33 5 55 7 28 24

    Transportation & Public Utilities 30 4 59 7 26 23

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 37 4 54 5 33 26

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

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    35

    The West Region is comprised of the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,

    Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

    Among employers surveyed in the West, 33% plan to

    increase the hiring pace while 6% plan a decrease in

    job activity, which equals a Net Employment Outlook of

    27%. When seasonal variations are removed from the

    data, the job outlook in the West is the strongest

    among the four U.S. regions. Employers are slightly

    more optimistic about hiring than in the second quarter

    and markedly more confident than last year at this time.

    Employers in eight out of the10 sectors surveyed plan

    an increase in the hiring pace from the April June

    period. The largest quarter-over-quarter hiring increases

    are expected in the Mining, Durable Goods

    Manufacturing and Public Administration sectors. In fact,

    government employers havent been this optimistic

    about hiring plans in more than two years. Employers in

    the majority of industry sectors expect a slight increase

    in hiring, including those in Non-Durable Goods

    Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,

    Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate

    and Education. A decline in hiring intentions is

    anticipated in the Services and Construction sectors,

    while healthy job prospects are forecast across all

    sectors compared with survey results from last year

    at this time.

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    Construction

    -20-15-10

    -505

    10152025303540

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    Employers in the Construction sector report promising

    job prospects. Although the hiring pace is expected to

    be slower than it was in the second quarter, job

    seekers are likely to find solid employment opportunitiesagain this quarter. Hiring projections are noticeably

    improved from a year ago.

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

    trends in regional hiring plans emerge. By a wide

    margin, employers in the South are more optimistic

    about their hiring plans than the other regions. Employersin the Northeast foresee the slowest hiring pace.

    Education

    -10

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    5

    10

    15

    2025

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    The third quarter employment outlook for the Education

    sector marks a three-year high, according to seasonally

    adjusted data. Employers anticipate moderately stronger

    hiring over the second quarter and a vast improvement

    over last year at this time when job losses were predicted.

    Employers in the South expect to offer the most

    promising job prospects, while those in the Midwest

    report the weakest hiring intentions.

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Manufacturing Durable Goods

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    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    Strong hiring intentions are apparent again this quarter

    in Durable Goods Manufacturing. Employers expect a

    slight increase in hiring over the second quarter and

    considerably improved job prospects compared with

    a year ago.

    According to seasonally adjusted data, employers in

    the West are most optimistic about hiring. Compared

    with the other regions, employers in the Midwest are

    least likely to take on staff.

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    For the fourth consecutive quarter, Finance/Insurance/

    Real Estate employers expect a steady improvement in

    the hiring pace, according to seasonally adjusted

    survey results. Hiring plans are slightly more optimisticthan in the second quarter survey and stronger than

    a year ago.

    Regional hiring patterns are the same as those reported

    in the second quarter. Job seekers in the West are likely

    to find more employers hiring than those in other

    regions. Employers in the Midwest are least likely toincrease staff levels.

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    Mining

    Employers in the Mining sector plan to hire at a strong

    pace in the coming quarter, resulting in the most

    optimistic employment outlook in three years for the

    sector. On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers

    expect a moderate increase in hiring over the second

    quarter and a considerable jump compared with last

    year at this time.

    Hiring intentions in the Mining sector are strongest in

    the West. For the second straight quarter, the least

    promising outlook is in the Northeast, where job losses

    are anticipated, although at a slower pace than in the

    second quarter.

    Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    For the third quarter, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers

    anticipate a steady hiring pace, according to seasonally

    adjusted data. The employment outlook suggests a

    slight increase in hiring activity over the second quarter,and a significant boost from a year ago.

    Hiring expectations are consistent across the regions.

    Employers in the South, West and Midwest plan to hire

    at the same pace. Employers in the Northeast are least

    optimistic about hiring.

    -10

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    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Public Administration

    According to seasonally adjusted data, Public

    Administration employers expect some hiring to take

    place during the July September period. After more

    than two years of ups and downs, hiring expectationsfor the coming quarter are stable with projections that

    are identical to those reported in the second quarter

    survey, but considerably better than a year ago.

    Employers in the South and West expressed the most

    confidence about hiring for the third quarter, while

    employers in the Midwest are more reserved in their

    staffing plans.

    -10-5

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    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    Services

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

    the employment outlook for the services sector is

    among the most positive across the 10 sectors

    surveyed. Employers revealed hiring plans in line with

    those issued in the second quarter and are much more

    optimistic than a year ago at this time.

    For the third quarter, employers in the South are most

    likely to add staff, and those in the Midwest have the

    weakest hiring intentions.

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    Wholesale & Retail Trade

    -15-10

    -505

    101520253035

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    Transportation & Public Utilities

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

    The seasonally adjusted data suggests that the

    Transportation/Public Utilities sector is headed for

    another quarter of healthy hiring. Compared to the

    second quarter, a similar number of employers intend to

    take on more staff, while job prospects are significantly

    better than last year at this time.

    Job seekers in the West are likely to have the best job

    prospects, while those in the Northeast are expected to

    face the most challenging job search.

    The third quarter employment outlook indicates strong

    hiring plans among Wholesale/Retail Trade employers.

    According to seasonally adjusted data, the hiring pace

    is expected to be similar to the second quarter and

    substantially better than a year ago.The Wholesale/Retail

    Trade outlook is one of the strongest among the

    industries surveyed.

    Wholesale/Retail Trade employers in the West are most

    optimistic about hiring, while those in the Northeast

    report the most conservative plans.

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    The Americas Employment OutlookOver 21,000 interviews have been conducted across the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure anticipated

    employment trends between July and September 2004.

    International Comparisons

    Comparing the data over time, we can see the strong

    seasonal hiring variations that occur in Canadas

    employment hiring levels due to changes in climate.

    The third quarter sees the positive hiring trend in

    Canada continue to improve as the climate remains

    mild. There are less dramatic seasonal shifts when

    comparing the United States and Mexico: a continued

    alignment in the two countries historical employment

    forecasts is evident.

    1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity

    for the United States.

    Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know Net Employment Outlook

    % % % % %

    Canada 31 6 60 3 25

    Mexico 26 12 61 1 14

    United States 30 6 59 5 24 (20)1

    -5

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    3035

    United States (Seasonally Adjusted)MexicoCanada

    Q42002

    Q32004

    Q12003

    Q22003

    Q32003

    Q42003

    Q12004

    Q22004

    The three nations in the Americas are currently moving

    in unison. Overall, the job outlook is positive and in the

    case of Canada and the United States, a slight

    improvement over last quarter. Canada posted the

    regions strongest Net Employment Outlook for the

    second consecutive quarter. Employers in the United

    States are reporting slightly more positive hiring

    intentions for the three months ahead. Employment

    prospects in Mexico are expected to be stable.

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    Sector Comparisons

    In Mexico, employers in the Industry sector have

    predicted a slight quarter-over-quarter fall in job

    prospects. Mexican employers and American

    employers in the Services sector are anticipating anincrease in prospects of three percentage points

    compared to last quarter.

    2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,

    Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.

    Canada

    %

    26

    Net Employment Outlook

    Industry Services

    %

    23

    Q2 2004

    %

    25

    Q2 2004

    %

    23

    United States 2424 2126

    Mexico 1418 1116

    Q3 2004 Q3 2004

    Within this section, we outline variation in the Net

    Employment Outlook across two broad categories:

    Industry and Services. Positive hiring intentions are

    expected across the region in both the Industry andServices categories. Canadian and American employers

    in both sectors intend to increase or maintain

    employment levels over the next three months.

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Global Employment OutlookOver 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated

    employment trends between July and September 2004.

    Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

    Americas Q2 to Q3 2004

    Canada 1

    Mexico 0

    United States

    Q2 2004

    %

    24

    14

    22 (20)1

    Q3 2004

    %

    25

    14

    24 (20)1 2

    Net Employment Outlook

    Asia Pacific

    Australia 1

    Hong Kong 7

    Japan -11New Zealand

    Q3 2004

    %

    17

    23

    930 -9

    Singapore 198 11

    Qtr on Qtr Change

    Q2 to Q3 2004

    %

    18

    16

    2039

    Q2 2004

    Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

    Europe Q2 to Q3 2004

    Austria -9

    Belgium 2

    France 0

    Germany 0

    Ireland 9

    Netherlands 2

    Norway 3

    Spain 5

    Sweden -1

    UK -2

    Italy

    Q2 2004

    %

    11

    9

    4

    -4

    9

    4

    7

    9

    17

    16 (13)1

    5

    Q3 2004

    %

    2

    11

    4

    -4

    18

    6

    10

    14

    16

    14 (12)1

    5 0

    1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for the UK

    and United States.

    Regional and International ComparisonsWhen seasonal variations are removed from the United

    States and UK data, the UK results are positive

    although slightly down on the forecast from the

    previous quarter. Job prospects in the United States

    continue to be positive and are indicative of stable

    hiring patterns to come.

    Employers in 16 of 19 countries expect more hiring

    compared to last year at this time. Job prospects are

    anticipated to be strongest in New Zealand, Canada,

    the United States and Hong Kong for the quarter

    ahead. Only German employers reported a negative

    outlook, which remains unchanged from hiring levels

    reported in the second-quarter survey.

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    Sector Comparisons

    2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,

    Transport, Storage & Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services, and Public Administration.

    Canada

    %

    26

    Net Employment Outlook

    Industry Services

    Americas

    %

    23

    Q2 2004

    %

    25

    Q2 2004

    %

    23

    United States 2424 2126

    Mexico 1418 1116

    Q3 2004 Q3 2004

    %%

    Japan 20 11

    Net Employment Outlook

    Industry Services

    Asia Pacific

    %

    21

    Q2 2004 Q2 2004

    %

    Australia 18 1719 16

    Hong Kong 17 2813 13

    6

    New Zealand 40 3237 27

    Singapore 9 225 9

    Q3 2004 Q3 2004

    %%

    Ireland 817 2112

    Italy 63 74

    Net Employment Outlook

    Industry Services

    Europe

    %

    Q2 2004 Q2 2004

    %

    France 2 4 54

    Germany -3 -3-6 -4

    Austria 2617 1

    Belgium 9 119 9

    Norway 910 102

    Netherlands 68 62

    UK 1614 1312

    Sweden 1822 1517

    Spain 9 199 5

    Q3 2004 Q3 2004

    Similarly, in the Industry category, job prospects are

    expected to be positive in all countries with only

    Germany reporting a negative Net Employment Outlook.

    Strongest prospects for Industry are anticipated forthe second consecutive quarter in New Zealand, the

    United States and Canada. Notably, Industry employers

    in Sweden are also anticipating one of the most

    optimistic forecasts for the third quarter.

    Within this section, we outline variation in the Net

    Employment Outlook across two broad categories:

    Industry and Services. All of the countries surveyed,

    except Germany, are predicting positive hiring activityin both categories. Employers in the Services category

    in New Zealand, Hong Kong, Canada, the United

    States, Singapore and Ireland are most optimistic,

    while employers in Germany, Austria, France and the

    Netherlands are less positive.

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    About the SurveyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted

    quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or

    decrease the number of employees in their workforce during

    the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40

    years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employmentactivity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of

    the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

    Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area

    of focus.

    Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the

    only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast

    employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys

    and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what

    occurred in the past.

    Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived

    all of its information from a single question.

    Independent:The survey is conducted with a representative

    sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it

    is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from

    Manpowers customer base.

    Robust:The survey is based on interviews with more than

    35,000 public and private employers across 19 national

    economies to measure anticipated employment trends each

    quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across

    specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

    Methodology

    The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using

    a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 19

    countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted

    includes Manpowers Market Intelligence team; the Research &

    Diagnostics Division of The Empower Group an independent

    operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and Grupo

    IDM. The survey has been structured to be representative of

    each national economy. The margin of error for all national,

    regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.2%.

    In the United States, the national survey is conducted by

    Manpowers North American Market Intelligence Team and

    includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the

    margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

    Survey Question

    All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked

    the same question, How do you anticipate total employment

    at your location to change in the three months to the end of

    September 2004 as compared to the current quarter?

    Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term Net Employment

    Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of

    employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and

    subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to

    see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.

    The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

    Seasonal Adjustment

    Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for the

    United States and United Kingdom to provide additional insight

    into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to

    review the data without the employment fluctuations thatnormally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a

    clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add

    seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the

    future, as more historical data is compiled.

    Sectors

    The industry sectors that are reported for each country in this

    report are representative of the local economy. In some areas

    of the report, we have reported the data in two broad sector

    categories: Industry and Services. These categories are

    consistent with standards of other respected international data

    sources. The Industry category includes sectors such as:

    construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The

    Services category includes wholesale and retail trade;

    restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;

    communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other business

    services and public administration.

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    History of the Survey

    1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

    Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

    1966 Manpowers UK operation launches the equivalent of

    the United States survey, naming the report the

    Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey

    adopts the same forward-looking research format as the

    United States survey and is the first of its kind in

    Europe.

    1976 2nd generation of Manpowers Employment Outlook

    Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

    Research methodology is updated to evolve with

    advancements in the field of market research.

    2002 Manpower UKs Quarterly Survey of Employment

    Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research

    methodology. Manpowers operations in Mexico and

    Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.

    2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

    Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium,

    Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy,

    Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain,

    Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.

    2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

    About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the

    employment services industry, offering customers a continuum of

    services to meet their needs throughout the employment and

    business cycle. The company specializes in permanent,

    temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment;training; career transition and organizational consulting services.

    Manpowers worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries

    and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its

    400,000 customers per year, including small and medium size

    enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the worlds largest

    multinational corporations. The focus of Manpowers work is on

    raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-

    reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core

    business activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, the

    company operates under the brand names of Right

    Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan, Brook Street

    and Empower. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at

    www.manpower.com.

    In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of

    HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial

    and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower

    Professional brand, the company places contract professionals

    on assignment in areas such as information technology,

    scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More

    information about Manpowers US operation can be found at

    www.us.manpower.com.

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    Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 5321

    Tel: 414 961 1000

    www.us.manpower.com

    2004 M I All i ht d