manpower employment outlook survey: united states - q3, 2003

8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q3, 2003

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3rd Quarter 2003

Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyUnited States


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Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with

employers across the United States to measure

anticipated employment trends between July and

September 2003. All participants were asked, How

do you anticipate total employment at your location to

change in the three months to the end of September

2003 as compared to the current quarter?

Of the U.S. employers that were surveyed, 20%

predict an increase in hiring activity for the third

quarter, while 9% expect a decrease in employment

opportunities. Thus, the Net Employment Outlook

The United States Employment Outlook

Contents

United States Employment Outlook 2

The Americas Employment Outlook 14

Global Employment Outlook 16

About the Survey 18

About Manpower 19

Net Employment SeasonallyIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

Outlook Adjusted

% % % % % %

3rd Quarter 2003 20 9 65 6 11 6

is an 11% increase in hiring activity anticipated for

the third quarter. Although this indicates that

employers plan to do some hiring in the coming

months, it also shows that they are less optimistic

than they were in the second quarter survey and

notably more cautious than a year ago.

When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

the outlook drops to an increase of only 6%. This

marks the weakest job forecast in more than 12

years. It also continues the downward trend in hiring

activity that began in the first quarter of the year.


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Hiring activity is expected to slow across seven of

the 10 industry sectors, continuing the steady decline

that has been evident across the important

Manufacturing, Services and Wholesale & Retail

Trade sectors since the beginning of the year. The

Education and Public Administration sectors are

anticipating job cuts in the third quarter, as the

downward trend from the past several quarters

continues to gain momentum for these sectors.

The softness in third quarter hiring expectations is

especially apparent in the seasonally adjusted data,

as half of the industry sectors are expected to have

the weakest job outlook in more than a decade. These

sectors include Construction, Wholesale & Retail

Trade, Education, Services and Public Administration.

Mining is the only sector that expects an increase in

hiring activity over both last quarter and a year ago

at this time. The employment forecast for both the

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and

Transportation & Public Utilities sectors is expected

to be stable for the coming quarter, with increases in

hiring activity at identical levels to the second quarter

survey results.

Hiring expectations across all four regions of the U.S.

are relatively consistent with the overall national

Employment Outlook for the third quarter. Although all

of the regions are reporting job growth expectations

in the July September period, the hiring pace is

expected to be slower than it was in the second

quarter survey and decidedly more sluggish than last

years third quarter prospects.

Employers in the South reported slightly more

positive hiring prospects than the other regions, and

the Northeast is expected to lag the rest of the

country for the third consecutive quarter.


Outlook Adjusted

% % % % % %Midwest 21 9 65 5 12 5

Northeast 19 10 64 7 9 4

South 20 8 66 6 12 9

West 22 11 57 10 11 7


Outlook Adjusted

% % % % % %Construction 28 7 60 5 21 6

Education 13 21 60 6 -8 -4

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 18 6 69 7 12 11

Manufacturing Durables 20 11 63 6 9 6

Manufacturing Non-Durables 19 9 67 5 10 7

Mining 25 10 61 4 15 11

Public Administration 15 14 65 6 1 -3

Services 19 8 66 7 11 7

Transportation & Public Utilities 16 10 68 6 6 5

Wholesale & Retail Trade 25 7 62 6 18 10

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/ 0.8%.


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Regional Comparisons

Midwest

Twenty-one percent of employers in the Midwest

forecast an increase in hiring, while 9% expect adecrease, which creates a Net Employment Outlook

of 12%. When the seasonal variations are removed

from the data, third quarter employment opportunities

in the Midwest are expected to decline moderately

from last quarter and last year at this time.

In spite of overall reduced hiring activity in the region,

the bright spots include the Finance, Insurance &

Real Estate and Transportation & Public Utilities

sectors, which are both expected to improve from the

second quarter of this year. Conversely, considerable

job cutbacks are expected in the Education andPublic Administration sectors in the Midwest, with

substantial reductions in hiring activity compared to

the second quarter of 2003 and the third quarter of

last year.

Hiring activity is expected to move at a slower pace

than last quarter as well as the third quarter of 2002

across the Manufacturing, Services, Wholesale &

Retail Trade and Construction sectors in the Midwest

in the coming quarter.


Outlook Adjusted

% % % % % %

All Industries 21 9 65 5 12 5

Construction 33 6 57 4 27 5

Education 8 27 59 6 -19 -17



Manufacturing Non Durables 20 9 67 4 11 8

Mining 14 14 72 0 0 -11

Public Administration 17 21 57 5 -4 -11

Services 17 7 70 6 10 5



The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North

Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.


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Outlook Adjusted% % % % % %



Education 10 18 66 6 -8 -5




Mining 0 25 75 0 -25 -16

Public Administration 10 13 69 8 -3 -6

Services 19 8 64 9 11 5



Northeast

In the Northeast, 19% of the employers surveyed

estimate an increase in hiring, while 10% predict adecrease, which leads to a Net Employment Outlook

of 9%. When the data is seasonally adjusted, limited

job growth is forecast in the Northeast. The region

anticipates the weakest job market in the United

States for the third consecutive quarter and reports

a considerable decline in hiring intentions from a

year ago.

All of the 10 industry sectors in the Northeast are

headed for weaker job prospects in the third quarter.The Construction, Education, Mining and Services

sectors are considerably less optimistic than they

were in the second quarter survey. Employers in the

Public Administration, Education and Mining sectors

anticipate job cuts in the third quarter, with educators

facing the most negative job outlook since 1992.

The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,

Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.


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South

Of the employers surveyed in the South, 20% expect

an increase in employment in the third quarter, and 8%

anticipate a decrease, which equals a Net Employment

Outlook of 12%. According to the seasonally

adjusted survey results, employment prospects in the

South are the most promising of any U.S. region and

have been for the previous four quarters as well.

Hiring intentions in the South are, however,

moderately lower than they were in both the second

quarter of this year and in the third quarter of 2002.

Job prospects appear best in the Mining sector

where employers are more upbeat than they have

been in seven quarters. Transportation & Utilities

employers estimate a hiring pace identical to last

quarter, while Manufacturing, Education and Public

Administration employers predict a more

conservative job pattern. Other sectors in the South

expect steady hiring in the coming three months,

although projections were more optimistic last

quarter and a year ago.


Outlook Adjusted

% % % % % %



Education 17 13 63 7 4 7




Mining 27 12 61 0 15 13

Public Administration 15 8 71 6 7 4

Services 20 7 67 6 13 11Transportation & Public Utilities 16 9 68 7 7 7


The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.


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Sector ComparisonsIn the third quarter of 2003, employers in the

Education and Public Administration sectors are

decidedly more pessimistic than in other areas, with

job losses on the horizon. While Construction andWholesale & Retail Trade appear to be the most

optimistic sectors for the quarter, this is indicative of

the normal seasonal trends. A review of the historical

and seasonally adjusted data for these sectors

reveals the real story for the upcoming quarter.

Construction

Education

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Manufacturing Durables

Manufacturing Non-Durables

Mining

Public Administration

Services

Transportation & Public Utilities

Wholesale & Retail Trade

12

216

-8-4

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

1511

1-3

11

65

7

1810

96

107

11

Original Adjusted


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Construction

The Construction sector is normally going strong in

the third quarter, while the weather is still amenable in

the northern states, but this year will be an exception.

Employers are anticipating steep declines in hiring

activity compared with both the second quarter and

a year ago. This marks the weakest Employment

Outlook for Construction since 1992. Hiring activity is

expected to be the strongest in the South and

weakest in the West.

Education

The new school year is likely to begin with fewer

employees in the Education sector. Employers within

this sector are anticipating a Net reduction in their

staffing levels in the third quarter. The seasonally

adjusted data reveals the most pessimistic forecast

since 1991 and the biggest dip in third quarter

employment prospects in 27 years of historical data.

Hiring levels will be strongest in the South and

weakest in the Midwest, where the survey results

show a decrease of 17%.


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Manufacturing Durable Goods

The Employment Outlook for this sector has been on

a steady decline since the third quarter of 2002,

according to the seasonally adjusted survey findings.

Durable Goods Manufacturers anticipate a

conservative hiring pace for the coming quarter,

although it will be somewhat slower than in the

second quarter and considerably slower than the

third quarter of last year. The best job prospects are

likely in the South, as the Midwest braces for the

weakest job outlook in the country for this sector.

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

When the seasonal variations are removed from the

data, the strongest job activity of all the sectors is

expected in Finance, Insurance & Real Estate, a

distinction this sector shares with Mining. Despite

being the most optimistic sector, hiring expectations

for Finance, Insurance & Real Estate have plateaued,

with employers reporting the same outlook as they

did three months ago. The forecast was slightly more

optimistic a year ago at this time. Job prospects are

expected to be strongest in the Midwest and weakest

in the Northeast.


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Mining

Mining is the only sector to report an increase in

hiring intentions over both the second quarter of this

year and the third quarter of 2002. In fact, the Mining

industrys job outlook for the coming quarter is the

most optimistic it has been since the final period of

2001. The seasonally adjusted data shows that

Mining has the strongest job prospects of any sector,

a distinction it shares with Finance, Insurance & Real

Estate. By a wide margin, the strongest outlook is in

the West and the weakest is in the Northeast.

Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods

Employers in the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing

sector foresee moderate job growth from July to

September, although the prospects are weaker than

both a quarter ago and a year ago. Seasonal

adjustments to the data reveal the darkest third

quarter employment forecast in 21 years. The West

will take the lead in hiring activity for the quarter, as

the employment prospects fade in the Northeast.


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Public Administration

Government jobs are headed for the chopping block

for the first time since 1991, according to the

seasonally adjusted data for the third quarter. Aside

from a one-quarter plateau at the end of 2002, hiring

expectations within this sector have gradually

dwindled for nearly two years. While the Midwest

appears set to cut the most jobs, there will still be a

few new job opportunities in the South.

Services

Only twice in 27 years of seasonally adjusted

historical data have job prospects for the Services

sector sunk as low as they have for the coming

quarter. The previous occasion was more than a

dozen years ago in the second quarter of 1991.

In spite of this dire comparison, employers in the

Services sector still expect to hire at a modest pace

for the third quarter, with the strongest job prospects

in the South.


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Wholesale & Retail Trade

Third quarter marks the beginning of the holiday

hiring season. For that reason, it is traditionally one of

the strongest hiring quarters for the Wholesale &

Retail Trade sector. The seasonally adjusted data,

however, reveals a disappointingly steady job climate

in the coming quarter, with no real holiday hiring

spike anticipated. Job seekers would be wise to

head South for the best job prospects in this sector.

Transportation & Public Utilities

The third quarter Net Employment Outlook for the

Transportation & Public Utilities sector shows a slight

upturn in job opportunities the first anticipated

increase in five quarters. When seasonal variations

are eliminated, the forecast is identical to last quarter.

A mild hiring pace is predicted from July to

September, with the South expecting a little more

activity than other regions.


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The Americas Employment OutlookOver 20,000 interviews have been conducted across The United States, Canada and Mexico to measure

anticipated employment trends between July and September 2003.

International ComparisonsThe three nations in the Americas are not currently

moving in unison. The highest Net Employment

increase was recorded in Canada. With more than

one-third of organizations anticipating an increase in

staffing levels, and only around one-in-twenty

To provide greater perspective on the Net

Employment trends over time, we compare the

results across all three countries since Mexico

began its survey in 2002. As can be seen from these

data, the Canadian survey results have varied much

more dramatically than the United States and

Mexico, with a span of 31 percent between the most

optimistic and pessimistic Employment Outlooks

over the five quarters. The survey results from the

United States and Mexico have been closely

aligned, with the largest variations between the two

countries occurring in the third quarter of 2002 and

in the first quarter of 2003.

Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know Net Employment Outlook

% % % % %

Canada 36 6 56 2 +30

Mexico 24 13 63 0 +11United States 20 9 65 6 +11

expecting a decrease, the Net Employment Outlook

is +30%. Lower Net increases were expected in

Mexico and the United States, with Net Employment

Outlooks of +11% recorded in both nations.


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Sector Comparisons

Industry

Canada

Mexico

United States

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

27

11

12

Services

Canada

Mexico

United States

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

31

11

11

Within this section, we outline variation in the Net

Employment Outlook across two broad categories:

Industry and Services1. Comparing expected

changes in employment between the two categories

reveals no significant differences; across each

nation, the expected increases are virtually the same

for both Industry and Services.

The greatest differences are found between the

nations. Across both categories, the Outlook in

Canada was noticeably more optimistic than boththe USA and Mexico.

1. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,

Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.


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Global Employment OutlookOver 30,000 interviews have been conducted across 18 countries to measure anticipated employment trends

between July and September 2003.

Regional and International ComparisonsA high degree of variation was revealed across the

individual nations surveyed, with 12 of the 18

countries reporting a Net Employment increase is

anticipated for the quarter. The highest Net

Employment Outlook levels were recorded in

Canada, Australia, Spain and the UK. In Ireland,

Mexico and the United States, considerable Net


% % % % %

Canada 36 6 56 2 +30

Mexico 24 13 63 0 +11

United States 20 9 65 6 +11

The Americas


% % % % %

Australia 24 11 65 0 +13

Hong Kong 12 17 68 3 -5Japan 7 11 71 11 -4

Singapore 8 8 78 6 0

Asia Pacific


% % % % %

Austria 13 13 73 1 0

Belgium 5 7 86 2 -2

France 10 7 80 3 +3

Germany 9 19 72 0 -10

Ireland 23 11 66 0 +12

Italy 18 10 72 0 +8

Netherlands 8 3 87 2 +5

Norway 18 11 70 1 +7

Spain 22 9 68 1 +13

Sweden 14 10 75 1 +4

UK 21 8 71 0 +13

Europe

Employment increases were also reported.

Four countries reported a negative Employment

Outlook: Germany, Hong Kong, Japan and Belgium.

No Net change was expected in Austria and

Singapore where the same proportion of employers

anticipated an increase as expected a decrease.


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About the SurveyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted

quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or

decrease the number of employees in their workforce during

the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40

years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment

activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of

the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area

of focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the

only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast

employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys

and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what

occurred in the past.

Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived

all of its information from a single question.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative

sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it

is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from

Manpowers customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with 30,000 public

and private employers across eighteen national economies to

measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This

sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific

sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Methodology

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted usinga validated methodology, in accordance with the highest

standards in market research. The research team for the 18

countries where the survey is currently conducted includes

Manpowers Market Intelligence team; the Research &

Diagnostics Division of The Empower Group an independent

operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and Grupo

IDM. The survey has been structured to be representative of

each national economy. The margin of error for all national,

regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.8%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted by

Manpowers North American Market Intelligence Team and

includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the

margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

Survey Question

All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked

the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at

your location to change in the three months to the end of

September 2003 as compared to the current quarter?

Net Employment Outlook

Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment

Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of

employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and

subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect

to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next

quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net EmploymentOutlook.

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for the

United States and United Kingdom to provide additional insight

into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to

review the data without the employment fluctuations that

normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a

clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add

seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the

future, as more historical data is compiled.

SectorsThe industry sectors that are reported for each country in this

report are representative of the local economy. In some areas

of the report, we have reported the data in two broad sector

categories: Industry and Services. These categories are

consistent with standards of other respected international data

sources. The Industry category includes sectors such as:

construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The

Services category includes wholesale and retail trade;

restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;

communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other business

services and public administration.

History of the Survey

1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

1966 Manpowers UK operation launches the equivalent of the

United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly

Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the

same forward-looking research format as the United

States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

1976 2nd generation of Manpowers Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

Research methodology is updated to evolve with

advancements in the field of market research.2002 Manpower UKs Quarterly Survey of Employment

Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research

methodology. Manpowers operations in Mexico and

Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.

2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18

countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium,

Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy,

Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain,

Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.


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About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. is a world leader in the staffing industry,

providing workforce management services and solutions to

customers through 3,900 offices in 63 countries. The firm

annually provides employment to two million people worldwide

and is an industry leader in employee assessment and

training. Manpower also provides a range of staffing solutions,

engagement and consulting services worldwide under the

subsidiary brands of Brook Street, Elan, The Empower Group

and Jefferson Wells. More information on Manpower Inc. can

be found at the companys Web site, www.manpower.com.

In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of

HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial

and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower

Professional brand, the company places contract professionals

on assignment in areas such as information technology,

scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More

information about Manpowers U.S. operation can be found at

www.us.manpower.com.

manpower employment outlook survey: united states - q3, 2003

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