maghull north railway station - merseytravel · 2.7 option appraisal ... location of proposed...
TRANSCRIPT
335570 ITD ITN 04 C
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9 August 2016
Maghull North Railway Station
Full Business Case
Maghull North Railway Station
Full Business Case
October 2016
Merseytravel
T +44 (0)151 482 9910 F +44 (0)151 236 2985 W www.mottmac.com
Mann Island, PO Box 1976, Liverpool L69 3HN
Maghull North Railway Station Full Business Case
335570/ITD/ITN/04/C
Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description Standard
01 31 October 2016 JH MF MF Final draft
Issue and revision record
This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose.
We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by any other party, or being used for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties.
This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it.
335570/ITD/ITN/04/C
Chapter Title Page
Executive Summary 1
Introduction 1 Current Situation ______________________________________________________________________________ 1 The Proposed Scheme _________________________________________________________________________ 2 Scheme Benefits ______________________________________________________________________________ 2 Strategic Need ________________________________________________________________________________ 3 Economic Benefits _____________________________________________________________________________ 4 Financial Case ________________________________________________________________________________ 5 Timescale for Delivery __________________________________________________________________________ 6
1 Introduction 8
2 Strategic Case 9
2.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 9 2.2 Background to the Scheme ___________________________________________________________ 9 2.3 Existing Situation __________________________________________________________________ 13 2.4 Identified Problems and Issues _______________________________________________________ 38 2.5 Need for Change __________________________________________________________________ 48 2.6 Scheme Description ________________________________________________________________ 52 2.7 Option Appraisal ___________________________________________________________________ 62 2.8 Strategic Fit ______________________________________________________________________ 64 2.9 Political Support for the Scheme ______________________________________________________ 70 2.10 Consultation ______________________________________________________________________ 71 2.11 Conclusions ______________________________________________________________________ 72
3 Economic Case 73
3.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 73 3.2 Demand Forecasts _________________________________________________________________ 73 3.3 Methodology ______________________________________________________________________ 81 3.4 Appraisal Results __________________________________________________________________ 86 3.5 Social and Distributional Impacts ______________________________________________________ 87 3.6 Environmental Impacts ______________________________________________________________ 90 3.7 Wider Economic Impacts ____________________________________________________________ 92 3.8 Appraisal Summary Table ___________________________________________________________ 94 3.9 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits _______________________________________________ 94 3.10 Value for Money Statement __________________________________________________________ 95 3.11 Sensitivity Tests – Alternative Growth Forecasts __________________________________________ 96 3.12 Capital Costs _____________________________________________________________________ 97 3.13 Sensitivity Tests – Fares Elasticities____________________________________________________ 98 3.14 Previous Analysis __________________________________________________________________ 98 3.15 Conclusions ______________________________________________________________________ 99
4 Financial Case 100
Contents
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4.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 100 4.2 Assumptions _____________________________________________________________________ 100 4.3 Base Costs ______________________________________________________________________ 101 4.4 Land Ownership and Costs _________________________________________________________ 103 4.5 Quantified Risk Assessment _________________________________________________________ 105 4.6 Optimism Bias ___________________________________________________________________ 106 4.7 Scheme Costs for Appraisal _________________________________________________________ 106 4.8 Preferred Funding Arrangements _____________________________________________________ 107 4.9 Alternative Funding Arrangements ____________________________________________________ 108 4.10 Assurance of expenditure ___________________________________________________________ 108 4.11 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 108
5 Commercial Case 109
5.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 109 5.2 Output Based Specification _________________________________________________________ 109 5.3 Procurement Method ______________________________________________________________ 111 5.4 Programme Implications and Risk ____________________________________________________ 115 5.5 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 117
6 Management Case 118
6.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 118 6.2 Governance _____________________________________________________________________ 118 6.3 Assurance ______________________________________________________________________ 126 6.4 Delivery Programme _______________________________________________________________ 129 6.5 Risk Management Strategy _________________________________________________________ 130 6.6 Communication and Stakeholder Management __________________________________________ 135 6.7 Monitoring and Evaluation __________________________________________________________ 144 6.8 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 148
7 Summary and Conclusions 149
7.1 Summary _______________________________________________________________________ 149 7.2 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 149
Figures
Figure 2.1: Location of Maghull within the Liverpool City Region _______________________________________ 10 Figure 2.2: Location of proposed Maghull North railway station ________________________________________ 12 Figure 2.3: Merseytravel ticket zoning structure ____________________________________________________ 16 Figure 2.4: Rail demand in Merseyside by line _____________________________________________________ 19 Figure 2.5: Ormskirk catchment area ____________________________________________________________ 26 Figure 2.6: Aughton Park catchment area ________________________________________________________ 26 Figure 2.7: Town Green catchment area _________________________________________________________ 27 Figure 2.8: Maghull catchment area _____________________________________________________________ 27 Figure 2.9: Old Roan catchment area ____________________________________________________________ 28 Figure 2.10: Aintree catchment area _____________________________________________________________ 28 Figure 2.11: Fazakerley catchment area __________________________________________________________ 29 Figure 2.12: Kirkby catchment area ______________________________________________________________ 29
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Figure 2.13: Maghull catchment area (2014) _______________________________________________________ 31 Figure 2.14: Deprivation in Maghull and surrounding areas - Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 _______________ 35 Figure 2.15: Local Development sites around Maghull ________________________________________________ 38 Figure 2.16: Public transport options towards Liverpool in the study area _________________________________ 42 Figure 2.17: Annual hourly traffic flows M57 between J6 and Switch Island, northbound (March 2013-April 2014) __ 45 Figure 2.18: Annual hourly traffic flows: M58 between J1 and Switch Island westbound (March 2013-April 2014) __ 45 Figure 2.19: Road congestion in Sefton in 2012 _____________________________________________________ 47 Figure 2.20: Indicative scheme layout of the station __________________________________________________ 55 Figure 2.21: Indicative cross-section of station building and footbridge ___________________________________ 57 Figure 2.22: Indicative visualisation of station ______________________________________________________ 58 Figure 2.23: Indicative visualisation of station building and car park _____________________________________ 59 Figure 2.24: Proposed station at Maghull North _____________________________________________________ 63 Figure 3.1: Demand Forecasting Process ________________________________________________________ 74 Figure 3.2: Sources of benefits of the scheme _____________________________________________________ 86 Figure 3.3: Transparent Economic Assessment Model (TEAM) used for wider economic impact assessment ____ 93 Figure 4.1: Land currently owned by HCA (brown line), and that earmarked for the station (blue hatching) _____ 103 Figure 4.2: Land owned by Network Rail (shaded green) ____________________________________________ 104 Figure 6.1: Liverpool City Region – Strategic Transport Governance ___________________________________ 119 Figure 6.2: Merseytravel Scheme Delivery _______________________________________________________ 121 Figure 6.3: Governance in Rail Investment Process (GRIP) _________________________________________ 122 Figure 6.4: Investment process policy and guidelines ______________________________________________ 123 Figure 6.5: Working group structure for Maghull North ______________________________________________ 124 Figure 6.6: GRIP and business case programme __________________________________________________ 127 Figure 6.7: Information distributed to local residents _______________________________________________ 136 Figure 6.8: Monitoring causal chain diagram _____________________________________________________ 145
Tables
Table 0.1: Justification of the need for the scheme __________________________________________________ 3 Table 0.2: Economic benefits of the scheme _______________________________________________________ 5 Table 0.3: Sources of funding for the scheme ______________________________________________________ 6 Table 0.4: Key milestones for the project _________________________________________________________ 6 Table 2.1: Service pattern on the Liverpool Central-Ormskirk line _____________________________________ 13 Table 2.2: Journey times on the Liverpool Central-Ormskirk line, Monday-Saturday daytime ________________ 14 Table 2.3: Connecting rail services _____________________________________________________________ 15 Table 2.4: Typical rail fares to Liverpool Central, August 2016 ________________________________________ 17 Table 2.5: Annual demand at railway stations between Liverpool Central, Preston and Wigan Wallgate, 2014-15 18 Table 2.6: Travel to work data towards Liverpool from local area by mid-level super output area (MSOA) ______ 20 Table 2.7: Mode of access to stations on the Northern Line __________________________________________ 21 Table 2.8: Average distance travelled (km) to stations by mode _______________________________________ 21 Table 2.9: Population and socio-economic data for the local area _____________________________________ 32 Table 2.10: JSA claims by area, July 2008 – July 2014 ______________________________________________ 33 Table 2.11: JSA claims by age range and duration of claim, July 2014 __________________________________ 34 Table 2.12: NEETs – comparison between Sefton Borough and Liverpool City Region ______________________ 34 Table 2.13: Car park occupancy rates on the Northern Line ___________________________________________ 39 Table 2.14: Comparative journey times to Liverpool City Centre________________________________________ 41 Table 2.15: Synergy with other local schemes _____________________________________________________ 49 Table 2.16: Measures for success – definitions of success against scheme objectives ______________________ 61 Table 2.17: Addressing the issues – which schemes solve which problems _______________________________ 64
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Table 2.18: Strategic fit of scheme with national, regional and local policies ______________________________ 68 Table 3.1: Abstraction assessment – drive-up demand (2012 demand from model output) __________________ 75 Table 3.2: Drive-up Demand Forecast at Maghull North in 2018 ______________________________________ 76 Table 3.3: Development Assumptions and resulting impacts on Maghull North ___________________________ 78 Table 3.4: Abstraction assessment – walk-up and bus demand at Maghull ______________________________ 78 Table 3.5: Forecast demand and revenue at Maghull North in 2018 ____________________________________ 79 Table 3.6: Impacts of adding the call at Maghull North on through passengers ___________________________ 80 Table 3.7: Forecast induced demand at Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green in 2018 __________________ 80 Table 3.8: Data sources and elasticities used in growth forecasts _____________________________________ 82 Table 3.9: Change in vehicle kilometres as a result of the scheme - Year 1 ______________________________ 84 Table 3.10: Comparison between operating costs and net revenue – revenue divided by operating costs _______ 87 Table 3.11: Social impacts of the scheme _________________________________________________________ 88 Table 3.12: Summary of the Distributional Impacts of the scheme ______________________________________ 90 Table 3.13: Environmental Appraisal Summary ____________________________________________________ 91 Table 3.14: Development land in Maghull contained in the Sefton Local Plan _____________________________ 93 Table 3.15: Wider Economic Impacts attributable to Maghull North _____________________________________ 94 Table 3.16: Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits for Maghull North _________________________________ 95 Table 3.17: Comparison of costs and benefits with the Core Scenario ___________________________________ 96 Table 3.18: Comparison of costs and benefits – capital cost variations __________________________________ 97 Table 3.19: Comparison of costs and benefits – fare elasticity variations _________________________________ 98 Table 4.1: Base capital costs for the scheme (2017 prices) _________________________________________ 102 Table 4.2: Base operating costs for the scheme (undiscounted, without risk and optimism bias) for first three
years ___________________________________________________________________________ 102 Table 4.3: Quantified Risk Assessment _________________________________________________________ 105 Table 4.4: Sources of funding for the scheme ____________________________________________________ 107 Table 5.1: Contract timescales and lengths _____________________________________________________ 115 Table 5.2: Dates for obtaining planning permission________________________________________________ 116 Table 6.1: Roles and Responsibilities in the Liverpool City Region ____________________________________ 120 Table 6.2: Working Groups – roles and responsibilities ____________________________________________ 125 Table 6.3: Key Programme Milestones – Maghull North ____________________________________________ 126 Table 6.4: Resolution of issues relating to operating a new station ____________________________________ 129 Table 6.5: Summary of key risks ______________________________________________________________ 131 Table 6.6: Recent projects delivered by Merseytravel ______________________________________________ 132 Table 6.7: List of key stakeholders ____________________________________________________________ 135 Table 6.8: Comments relating to existing transport problems and the proposed station at Maghull North ______ 138 Table 6.9: Method of engagement with stakeholders ______________________________________________ 142 Table 6.10: Core stakeholder engagement _______________________________________________________ 143 Table 6.11: Possible data sources and relevant performance indicators for monitoring and evaluation _________ 146 Table 7.1: Business Case Summary ___________________________________________________________ 149
Photos
Photo 2.1: Ormskirk railway station _____________________________________________________________ 22 Photo 2.2: Car park and cycle parking at Ormskirk _________________________________________________ 22 Photo 2.3: Town Green railway station __________________________________________________________ 23 Photo 2.4: Main car park at Town Green _________________________________________________________ 23 Photo 2.5: Maghull station Ormskirk-bound platform ________________________________________________ 24 Photo 2.6: Bus interchange at Maghull railway station ______________________________________________ 24 Photo 2.7: Bus interchange at Aintree ___________________________________________________________ 25
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Photo 2.8: Car park at Aintree _________________________________________________________________ 25 Photo 2.9: Town Green car park _______________________________________________________________ 39 Photo 2.10: Maghull station car park _____________________________________________________________ 39 Photo 2.11: Parking restrictions at Maghull ________________________________________________________ 40 Photo 2.12: Parking restrictions at Town Green ____________________________________________________ 40 Photo 2.13: A59 Northway, Maghull _____________________________________________________________ 46 Photo 2.14: A59 Aintree Village _________________________________________________________________ 46 Photo 2.15: Proposed location of Maghull North, looking north from School Lane __________________________ 54 Photo 2.16: Proposed location of station building, looking east from School Lane __________________________ 54
Maghull North Railway Station Full Business Case
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Introduction
The development of a new station in the northern area of Maghull will help provide
much greater public transport access both for the north of Maghull and the wider
hinterland including adjacent areas of West Lancashire. The proposed site of the
station is located adjacent to land which has been allocated for future housing and
employment development in Sefton’s Local Plan.
The site of the station is located between Maghull and Town Green stations on the
Liverpool Central to Ormskirk branch of the Merseyrail Northern Line. The site
lies approximately one mile to the north of the existing station of Maghull. It is
expected that the station would be served by the existing Liverpool Central-
Ormskirk service, which operates at 15 minute intervals throughout the day.
Current Situation
There are a number of important transport problems in the area that need to be
addressed, namely:
Car parks at existing rail stations are frequently full and are not able to cater for
off-peak passenger demand. Roads around the stations are protected by
waiting restrictions which limits access to rail services;
There is poor accessibility by public transport from the northern areas of
Maghull; and
Road traffic congestion is often experienced in Maghull, as well as on the radial
routes towards Liverpool.
The north eastern areas of Maghull are presently earmarked for future housing
and employment development in the Sefton Local Plan, and such new
development will exacerbate the existing traffic problems unless alternative public
transport options are introduced.
Executive Summary
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The Proposed Scheme
The proposed scheme at Maghull North involves a number of features:
The introduction of a new railway station, with minimum 6*18m cars = 120m
length platforms;
Step-free access to both platforms via lifts and footbridge within station
footprint. Access will also be provided via steps;
Secure, staffed ticket office operating up to 18 hours a day, from first to last
train;
Booking hall at ground level, and glazed passenger waiting shelters on both
platforms;
Real time passenger information, CCTV and help points;
156 space car park accessed from School Lane, including blue badge/wide
spaces, as well as motorcycle parking;
Covered secure cycle parking and storage, as well as cycle routes linked to
School Lane and Park Lane;
The introduction of new footpaths to School Lane and Park Lane; and
Bus lay-bys on School Lane with a walking route to station.
Scheme Benefits
The scheme will greatly improve accessibility in the northern areas of Maghull,
providing new public transport services in the local area. Importantly, it will provide
improved connections with Liverpool and the wider City Region with proposed
housing and employment development sites to the east of Maghull. This
contributes towards improved access to employment, education and leisure
facilities in Liverpool and the larger centres of the wider City Region and
surrounding area.
The car park at the station will provide important park and ride facility for
commuting trips, especially for passengers travelling to Liverpool. Its’ location,
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with good accessed from Junction 1 on the M58, should be attractive for
passengers who rail head from outside the City Region especially from
Skelmersdale. Consequently this will have several implications:-
replace some existing park and ride trips from stations such as Ormskirk,
Aughton Park, Maghull and Town Green;
encourage car drivers to park and ride at the new station; and
potentially reduce overflow parking in streets adjacent to existing rail stations.
In turn, reduced demand at the existing station car parks will enable them be able
to better serve all markets (for example, off-peak leisure travellers who may
currently have trouble parking at stations where the car parks are full or nearly
full).
By attracting car drivers to park at the station there will be a consequential
reduction in traffic from the local area towards Liverpool. This has the potential to
produce marginal economic benefits, through reductions in congestion and
improved reliability of journey times for all road users. There are also wider
benefits in terms of improved accessibility to employment opportunities, and
enhanced public transport connectivity with the wider City Region.
Strategic Need
There are a number of key business drivers for the scheme, and these can be
divided into legal requirements, policy drivers and future land use development.
These are discussed in more detail in Table 1.1 below.
Table 0.1: Justification of the need for the scheme
Driver Reasoning How scheme contributes
Accessibility Action Plan
Aims to deliver better access to jobs and key services through an accessible and socially inclusive transport system, by removing the barriers to travel.
New station in northern Maghull provides improved accessibility to wider jobs market, and provides access to proposed development sites to east of Maghull.
Local Transport Plan and Liverpool City Region Deal with Government
Places transport at the heart of new development and aims to improve accessibility in the City Region.
New station provides improved public transport links to northern Maghull, and will serve adjacent development sites in east of Maghull.
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Driver Reasoning How scheme contributes
Congestion
Approaches to existing station at Maghull, and the radial routes into Liverpool suffer from peak time traffic congestion.
New station provides alternate park and ride site towards Liverpool, reducing traffic on approaches to existing station at Maghull and on main radial routes into Liverpool.
Car Parking Problems Existing station car parks are operating at capacity and don’t effectively cater for the off peak market.
New station provides alternate park and ride site towards Liverpool. Abstraction for nearby stations will reduce demand at their car parks, freeing spaces for off peak demand.
Source: Mott MacDonald
Economic Benefits
The monetised economic assessment of the scheme has been undertaken in
compliance with guidance contained in the Government’s web-based Transport
Analysis Guidance (TAG). This shows that the scheme produces a Present Value
of Benefits (PVB) of £14.377m (2010 prices, discounted to 2010) compared to a
Present Value of Costs (PVC) of £7.617m with a benefit to cost ratio of 1.89
which represents medium value for money. Additional qualitative impacts are
set out in the Appraisal Summary Table that is provided as an Appendix to this
report.
This scenario assumes the LEP population and employment forecasts developed
for the City Region Long Term Rail Strategy. The LEP growth forecasts have
been produced in response to an historic under-reporting of population on
Merseyside by TEMPRO. These forecasts have fed into the recently published
long term rail strategy for the Liverpool City Region.
Network Rail have provided Merseytravel with a scheme cost estimate report to
GRIP 3 level in June 2016 which is used in this economic appraisal and formed
part of Merseytravel’s total cost advised to us of £13.0m (2017 prices). Optimism
Bias of 40% has also been applied to certain cost items.
The economic benefits of these three options are presented in
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Table 0.2 below.
Table 0.2: Economic benefits of the scheme
Core Scenario
Present Value of Benefits £14.377 million
Present Value of Costs £7.617 million
Net Present Value £6.760 million
Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.89
Value for Money Medium
Source: Mott MacDonald, all values are in 2010 market prices discounted to 2010 prices
An assessment of net revenue against operating costs for the core scenario
shows that over the 60 year appraisal period operating cost is more than covered
by net revenue. Overall revenue exceeds operating costs by around one third
and generates a revenue surplus of (2010 prices, discounted to
2010) over the appraisal period.
A Wider Economic Impact Assessment has been completed using Mott
MacDonald’s Transparent Economic Assessment Model (TEAM), which is a
versatile tool designed to calculate the economic impact of proposed infrastructure
interventions and policy measures. Using this method, the overall net economic
benefits to Sefton, on an annual basis, which are directly attributable to the
opening of Maghull North railway station, include facilitating new employment
opportunities with 259 jobs and £13.7 million of GVA.
Future forecasts of rail passengers using the station suggest that a total of
363,000 single journeys per annum will be generated by the station at Maghull
North in 2018.
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Financial Case
The major sources of funding for the scheme will be Department for Transport’s
Devolved Majors Local Growth Fund, Combined Authority LGF funding,
Merseytravel funding and Section 106 developer contributions from the developer
of the Ashworth South site adjacent to the proposed station.
Table 0.3 below provides a breakdown of the funding profile for the scheme.
Table 0.3: Sources of funding for the scheme
Expenditure % Total 2014/15 2015/16 To 21 Oct 2016
Remainder 16/17
Local Growth Fund 84% £6.200,000 £0 £0 £2,300,000 £3,900,000
Merseytravel 9% £690,000 £100,000 £490,000 £100,000 £0 Section 106 from
HCA 7% £480,000 £0 £0 £480,000 £0
Total £7,370,000 £100,000 £490,000 £2,880,000 £3,900,000 Additional
allocation required Combined
Authority LGF 90% £4,500,000 Merseytravel 10% £500,000
Total £12,370,000
Station cost £13,000,000
Sunk costs £633,000
Source: Merseytravel , undiscounted
Finance would be sourced from Major Scheme funding and any Section 106
contribution from the developer of the adjacent Ashworth Hospital site. The
Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) are now owners of the Ashworth Hospital
site, and they will make a developer contribution of £480,000 towards the cost of
the station.
Timescale for Delivery
The key milestones for the project are set out in Table 0.4 below.
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Table 0.4: Key milestones for the project
Milestone Project Completion Date
Option Appraisal Report Jun-14
Outline Business Case Dec-14
Completion of land procurement Oct-16
Completion of GRIP3 option selection Jun-16
Station agreement and update of concessions agreement Sep-17
Rail Information Project - consultation Nov-15 to Aug-16
Planning Application Sep-16 to Jan-17
Completion of GRIP 4 Outline design Feb-17
Completion of GRIP 5 detailed design Jun-17 to Dec-17
Completion of GRIP 6 construction, test and commission Aug-17 to Apr-18
Completion of GRIP 7 scheme hand back May-18
Completion of GRIP 8 project closeout From May-18
Station Opens May-18
Source: Merseytravel
This version of the Full Business Case incorporates various updates to the
previous baseline assumptions which have been requested by Merseytravel.
These include a revised opening date, new costs advised and application of the
LEP-based growth scenario. These have been interpreted, adapted and applied
where applicable and feasible.
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This document sets out the business case for the development of a new station in the northern area of
Maghull which will deliver improved public transport access both for the north of Maghull and the wider
hinterland including adjacent areas of West Lancashire. The document is structured to reflect the key
requirements of the business case, in line with WebTAG requirements as follows:
Section 2 outlines the Strategic Case for the scheme, demonstrating the case for change, with a clear
rationale for making the investment. This section highlights the strategic fit, how the investment in the
scheme will further the aims and objectives of the Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise Partnership
(LEP).
Section 3 outlines the Economic Case for the scheme which includes assessment of options to identify all
their impacts, and the resulting value for money. The impacts considered are just not limited to those
directly impacting on the measured economy. Consequently economic, environmental, social and
distributional impacts of a proposal are all examined, using qualitative, quantitative and monetised
information.
Section 4 outlines the Financial Case for the scheme, focusing on the affordability of the proposal, its’
funding arrangements and technical accounting issues relating to the scheme.
Section 5 outliunes the Commercial Case for the scheme, setting out the background on the commercial
viability of a proposal and the procurement strategy that will be used to engage the market. It also sets out
evidence on risk allocation and transfer, contract timescales and implementation timescale as well as
details of the capability and skills of the team delivering the project and any personnel implications arising
from the scheme.
Section 6 sets out the Management Case for the scheme, focusing on deliverability issues, in relation to
project planning, governance structure, risk management, communications and stakeholder management,
benefits realisation and assurance (e.g. a Gateway Review). Details of the proposed monitoring and
evaluation framework adopted for the scheme are also included here.
Section 7 summarises the key benefits of the scheme.
1 Introduction
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2.1 Introduction
The Strategic Case determines whether or not an investment is needed, either now or in the future. It
demonstrates the case for change – that is, a clear rationale for making the investment; and strategic fit –
how an investment will further the aims and objectives of the Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise
Partnership (LEP).
More specifically the Strategic Case should:
Specify the business need for a project;
Set the context and identify a series of investment aims;
Assess the investment aims against what the LEP (and Government) wants to achieve as a whole;
Determine the case for change and strategic fit should an iterative process as the business case
develops, and always supported by robust evidence, such as identifying key risks and constraints; and
Consult main stakeholder groups.
The Strategic Case is discussed in detail under the following headings:
Background to the Scheme;
Existing Situation;
Identified Problems and Issues;
Need for Change;
Scheme Description;
Option Appraisal;
Strategic Fit;
Political Support;
Consultation; and
Conclusions.
2.2 Background to the Scheme
2.2.1 Location and Context
Maghull is located in the south eastern part of Sefton Borough close to the City Region boundary with West
Lancashire. It primarily acts as a dormitory suburb for Liverpool and is well served by the local rail and
highway network.
The location of the area in the context of the Liverpool City Region is shown in Figure 2.1.
2 Strategic Case
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Figure 2.1: Location of Maghull within the Liverpool City Region
Source: Mott MacDonald
Southport Chorley
SkelmersdaleWigan
St Helens
Widnes
Runcorn
Warrington
Huyton
Crosby
Maghull
West Kirby
Birkenhead
New Brighton
LIVERPOOL
Hunt’s Cross
Bootle
Sandhills
Kirkdale
Kirkby
Ormskirk
Burscough
Formby
LEGEND
Liverpool City Region Railway lines serving Maghull
Maghull North Connecting lines
Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)
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The A59 Northway dual carriageway runs through Maghull, forms the Liverpool-Preston road and provides
the main north-south link in the area. The residential areas of Maghull are located on both sides of the
A59, with the small village of Lydiate located to the northwest.
The A59 also provides a link south to Switch Island, which is a complex signalised junction forming the
terminal junctions of both the M57 and the M58. The M57 effectively forms an eastern bypass for
Liverpool with links to the M62, and the M58 provides a link northeast to Skelmersdale and Wigan to
connect to the M6. Junction 1 of the M58 has northeast facing on/off slip roads providing access to the
northern areas of Maghull via School Lane. There are also links from Switch Island to the west towards
Seaforth and to Crosby along the A5758 Broom’s Cross Road.
The Liverpool Central-Ormskirk railway runs through the area, with stations at Old Roan, close to Switch
Island, and at Maghull, located in the south eastern area of the town. A further three stations north of
Maghull serve Town Green, Aughton Park and Ormskirk. To the southeast of Maghull the Liverpool
Central-Kirkby railway serves the town of Kirkby, whilst the Kirkby-Manchester line runs from Kirkby
towards Wigan, serving stations at Rainford and Upholland.
The current station in Maghull is accessed from Station Road and Melling Lane, which connects the A59 at
Maghull with Melling and Kirkby to the south and east. It is located 13.8 miles northeast of Liverpool
Central and is the final station within Merseyside on the Ormskirk branch. Stations between Maghull and
Ormskirk, although within Lancashire, benefit from being within the valid area of use for Merseytravel’s
Saveaway multi-modal (only valid on rail within West Lancashire) and Railpass tickets. Merseyrail’s
Daysaver off-peak tickets are also valid on the Ormskirk-Maghull section.
The local area is shown in Figure 2.2 below.
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Figure 2.2: Location of proposed Maghull North railway station
Source: Mott MacDonald
2.2.2 Scheme History
Proposals for a new railway station in the northern area of Maghull have existed for a number of years, and
date back to at least the mid-1980s. Consultants were commissioned by Merseytravel to prepare an
outline business case1 for the scheme in 2006, and this looked at the most appropriate design, predicted
passenger demand, revenue as well as operating and construction costs.
A further ‘fast-track development’ study2 into the station was undertaken by Network Rail in 2008, which
effectively conforms to GRIP stages 1 to 3.
1 Maghull North New Station Study: Final Report, Atkins, September 2006
2 Options Report for a new station at Maghull North, Network Rail, July 2008
Ormskirk-Prestonrailway line
MAGHULL
ORMSKIRK
SKELMERSDALE
KIRKBY
Rainford
Kirkby
RAINFORD
Maghull
Old Roan
Aintree AintreeRacecourse
Town Green
Aughton Park
NETHERTON
A51
47 t
o So
uthp
ort
Switch Island
Contains Ordnance Survey data© Crown copyright and database right (2014)
LEGENDExisting railway stationsProposed railway stationsRailway line serving Maghull NorthOther existing railway linesProposed rail link to Skelmersdale (indicative)Thornton-Switch Island Link Road
Skelmersdale(Proposed)
Headbolt Lane(Proposed)
SITE OF MAGHULL
NORTH
LYDIATE
WADDICAR
M58 Junction 1Proposed south-facing
slip roads
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Four different options for the station were considered, with varying locations between the Park Lane and
School Lane overbridges. The preferred option identified in the report included:
Two opposite platforms (rather than staggered) immediately north of School Lane overbridge;
A footbridge at southern end of platforms;
Station building located on up (Liverpool-bound) side; and
Car park accessed from roundabout with adjacent development site.
This "fast-track development" study considered the location of platforms at the proposed station site and
identified the optimum to be platforms opposite each other north of School Lane. These would be serviced
by steps and lifts from a footbridge at the Liverpool end of the platforms, again immediately north of School
Lane bridge.
Subsequent to this, a GRIP4 study was commenced. However, following funding cuts, a decision to cease
work on the study was taken in September 2010.
2.3 Existing Situation
2.3.1 Rail Services
The railway running through Maghull forms part of the Merseyrail Northern Line, with trains running
between Liverpool Central and Ormskirk calling at all stations. The service pattern is summarised in Table
2.1 below.
Table 2.1: Service pattern on the Liverpool Central-Ormskirk line
Headway
Northbound (ex-Liverpool Central)
Southbound (ex-Ormskirk)
First Train Last Train First Train Last Train
Mon-Sat (before 07:00) 20 minutes 06:10 - 05:50 -
Mon-Sat (07:00-19:00) 15 minutes - - - -
Mon-Sat (after 19:00) 30 minutes - 23:40 - 23:40
Sunday 30 minutes 08:10 23:40 08:20 23:40
Source: National Railway Timetable, May 2014
Journey times on the route are shown in Table 2.2 below.
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Table 2.2: Journey times on the Liverpool Central-Ormskirk line, Monday-Saturday daytime
Northbound journey times from Liverpool Central (minutes)
Southbound journey times from Ormskirk (minutes)
Moorfields 4 Aughton Park 3
Sandhills 8 Town Green 5
Kirkdale 11 Maghull 10
Walton (Merseyside) 13 Old Roan 13
Orrell Park 15 Aintree 15
Aintree 17 Orrell Park 17
Old Roan 19 Walton (Merseyside) 19
Maghull 22 Kirkdale 22
Town Green 26 Sandhills 24
Aughton Park 29 Moorfields 28
Ormskirk 34 Liverpool Central 30
Source: National Railway Timetable, May 2014
Note that journey times on Sundays are one minute faster from Liverpool to Maghull and Ormskirk in the
northbound direction. The journey time between Maghull and Town Green, the section where Maghull
North will be situated, is currently four minutes northbound and five minutes southbound. It is anticipated
that all Liverpool Central-Ormskirk services would call at the proposed station at Maghull North.
The Northern Line is electrified at 750V DC third rail. It is operated using Class 507 and 508 3-car Electric
Multiple Units (EMUs), which have a seating capacity of 1863. Some services are strengthened to 6-car
trains to accommodate peak time demand giving a seating capacity of 372 passengers.
The Ormskirk services provide connections to the wider Merseyrail network at Kirkdale, Sandhills,
Moorfields and Liverpool Central. Connecting Northern Rail services are available at Ormskirk station
towards Preston. Interchange opportunities are summarised in Table 2.3 below.
3 Marsden, C (2011), Traction Recognition Second Edition, Ian Allan Publishing
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Table 2.3: Connecting rail services
Interchange station Connections
Ormskirk Approximately every 75 minutes to Preston via Burscough, Rufford and Croston
(Northern are committed to providing an hourly service from Ormskirk to Preston from December 2017.)
Kirkdale Every 15 minutes to Kirkby via Fazakerley
Sandhills Every 15 minutes to Southport via Bootle, Crosby and Formby
Moorfields
Approximately every 5 minutes to Liverpool Lime Street for connections to mainline services to a variety of destinations including St Helens, Wigan, Preston, Warrington, Runcorn, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Nottingham, Norwich, Birmingham and London.
Liverpool Central
Every 15 minutes to Hunt’s Cross via Liverpool South Parkway
Every 15 minutes to Chester via Birkenhead Hamilton Square and Hooton
Every 30 minutes to Ellesmere Port via Birkenhead Hamilton Square and Hooton
Every 15 minutes to New Brighton via Birkenhead Hamilton Square and Wallasey
Every 15 minutes to West Kirby via Birkenhead Hamilton Square and Bidston for the Borderlands Line to Wresham
Source: National Railway Timetable, May 2014
At Ormskirk the connecting services use the same platform separated by buffer stops blocking any through
connection on the railway lines. Connecting passengers must alight from the train and walk down the
platform to board the connecting services. Ormskirk-Preston services operate at a slightly less than hourly
frequency Monday-Saturday and there is no Sunday service.
Merseytravel issue a range of tickets which are based on a zonal system as shown in Figure 2.3.
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Figure 2.3: Merseytravel ticket zoning structure
Source: Merseytravel
The main ticket types are:
Railpass – valid on rail only;
Trio – valid on bus ferry and rail; and
Saveaway – valid on bus, ferry and rail in off-peak periods (after 09:30).
In addition Merseyrail offer an off-peak day ticket, which from Maghull, Kirkby and Ormskirk to Liverpool
are cheaper than the standard Rail Settlement Plan (RSP) station-to-station return tickets. Typical fares
are shown in Table 2.4 below.
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Table 2.4: Typical rail fares to Liverpool Central, August 2016
RSP Anytime Day Return
Saveaway (multi-mode)
Merseyrail Daysaver (rail only)
Railpass (weekly)
Railpass equivalent
return price4
Ormskirk £6.45 £5.20 £5.00 £24.00 £4.76
Aughton Park £5.75 £5.20 £5.00 £24.00 £4.76
Town Green £5.65 £5.20 £5.00 £24.00 £4.76
Maghull £4.10 £3.90 £3.70 £19.00 £3.76
Old Roan £3.75 £3.90 £3.70 £19.00 £3.76
Aintree £3.65 £3.90 £3.70 £15.10 £3.02
Kirkby £3.75 £3.90 £3.70 £18.80 £3.76
Source: Merseytravel and Merseyrail
The price differentials are an important point to consider when investigating station choice for those who
rail head to stations in the area, especially those from the Skelmersdale area who have a choice of several
stations.
2.3.2 Service Enhancements
A number of capacity constraints on the network were highlighted in the Northern Route Utilisation
Strategy (RUS) in 2011, which incorporated elements of the Merseyside RUS from 2009. The first of these
was Liverpool Central, where Northern Line platform overcrowding, particular on Saturdays, was
highlighted as a key issue. Station upgrades at Liverpool Central in 2012 have already helped to increase
passenger capacity.
Other constraints relate to the existing infrastructure on the Northern Line. This includes flat junctions at
Sandhills (where the Southport branch diverges) and Walton (where the Kirkby branch diverges), which
limits the number of trains which can operate on the three branches of the Northern Line.
An hourly service between Ormskirk and Preston is being developed alongside an improved interchange
from Merseyrail to Northern Rail at Ormskirk. This will regularise (and slightly enhance) the Ormskirk-
Preston service frequency and has the potential to generate increased demand between Liverpool and
Ormskirk as an alternative route for trips between Liverpool, northern Lancashire, Cumbria and Scotland.
This forms the most direct route between Liverpool and Preston, although faster direct services are
available from Liverpool Lime Street to Preston via St Helens and Wigan.
The Merseyrail rolling stock fleet is due to be replaced and upgraded within the next decade. The
replacement is identified for delivery in the rail industry’s Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for
the Rail Industry (February 2014). As part of our appraisal process we have assumed that new rolling
stock will be delivered by December 2020.
4 Assumes five return journeys per week
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Strategies are being developed to release car parking pressures at individual stations on the Northern
Line. A number of stations were included in the National Station Improvement Programme, whereby
congestion and footfall pressure will be targeted up to 2014. This has included completed projects at
Liverpool Central and Ormskirk, whilst Maghull has benefitted from a new waiting room and fully accessible
toilets. No further work is planned on the Ormkisirk branch but a car park is to be built at Hall Road on the
Southport line. Merseytravel has recently allocated a contribution to the rebuilding of Aindsale, also on the
Southport branch.
2.3.3 Passenger Demand
Current demand on the Northern Line between Liverpool and Ormskirk and Liverpool and Kirkby has been
analysed together with a review of demand between Ormskirk and Preston and Kirkby and Wigan Wallgate
for completeness. This is summarised in Table 2.5 below.
Table 2.5: Annual demand at railway stations between Liverpool Central, Preston and Wigan Wallgate, 2014-15
Station Demand Station Demand
Liverpool Central 15,272,800 Burscough Junction 39,200
Moorfields 6,832,600 Rufford 17,500
Sandhills 1,324,100 Croston 45,200
Kirkdale 866,200 Preston 4,557,500
Walton 272,800 Rice Lane 314,400
Orrell Park 1,040,400 Fazakerley 1,088,200
Aintree 1,084,300 Kirkby 2,408,800
Old Roan 896,600 Rainford 49,600
Maghull 1,821,500 Upholland 28,000
Town Green 346,600 Orrell 97,700
Aughton Park 183,300 Pemberton 63,800
Ormskirk 2,096,300 Wigan Wallgate 1,637,500
Source: Office of Rail Regulation, Annual Station Footfall Figures 2014-15
This shows that in terms of demand the busiest stations outside of Central Liverpool are Kirkby and
Ormskirk, with Maghull being the third busiest. Stations between Ormskirk and Preston and Kirkby and
Wigan show relatively low demand, and this is potentially a result of the lack of direct services from these
stations towards Liverpool and the hourly or less than hourly train services on these lines.
Demand trends on the Merseyside rail network have also been analysed, using data supplied by
Merseytravel. Demand trends by line (i.e. Northern, Wirral and City) are shown in Figure 2.4 below. It
should be noted that both Liverpool Central and Liverpool James Street stations were closed for
refurbishment during 2012, and this is reflected in reduced demand on both the Northern and Wirral lines
compared to previous years.
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Figure 2.4: Rail demand in Merseyside by line
Source: Merseyside Annual Statistics Monitor 2013/14
The data suggests a period of sustained growth in demand on rail in Merseyside, from 34 million journeys
in 2004/5 to 38 million journeys in 2013/14 representing growth of around 12%. Closure of Liverpool
Central for refurbishment in 2012 is reflected in the demand dip for 2012/13 on the Northern Line. It is
noted that in the period between 2008/9 and 2011/12 demand on the Northern Line had begun to ‘level off’
with slight reductions in demand recorded.
Travel to work data is available from the 2011 Census, and this has been analysed for journeys towards
the Liverpool District. This is summarised in Table 2.6 for the mid-level super output areas (MSOAs)
covering the approximate catchment area, although it should be noted that the data represents only the
main mode of transport for a journey.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
De
man
d (
mill
ion
s)
Rail Demand by Line
Northern
Wirral
City
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Table 2.6: Travel to work data towards Liverpool from local area by mid-level super output area (MSOA)
MSOA To Liverpool District
Journeys Percentage by rail
Sefton 017 (Lydiate) 831 22%
Sefton 018 (N Maghull) 802 26%
Sefton 019 (SE Maghull) 658 32%
Sefton 020 (SW Maghull) 895 21%
West Lancashire 003 (NW of Maghull) 258 18%
West Lancashire 008 (E of Maghull) 177 18%
West Lancashire 009 (Skelmersdale) 125 14%
West Lancashire 010 (Skelmersdale) 107 13%
West Lancashire 011 (Skelmersdale) 114 17%
West Lancashire 014 (Skelmersdale) 71 18%
Catchment Average 4,038 23%
Source: 2011 Census and NOMIS
This shows that a relatively high proportion of journeys into the Liverpool district from Maghull are
undertaken by rail. Census reports a travel-to-work mode share by rail of 20% from Sefton to the Liverpool
District, suggesting that rail mode share in the Maghull area for journeys to work is slightly above the
district average. For all journey purposes, the Merseyside Countywide Travel Survey (2013) reports a rail
mode share of 5% for Sefton District, and 3% for Merseyside as a whole.
The travel-to-work data is a reflection of the competitive journey time by rail compared to road as well as
the comparative mode cost. It is noted that rail mode share is highest in the south eastern area of Maghull,
close to the railway station, with areas to the north and to the west of the A59 Northway having slightly
lower mode shares.
The Skelmersdale area to the north and east, which also forms part of the catchment for Maghull station,
has correspondingly lower numbers of journeys to work in the Liverpool district. Rail also has a lower
mode share for these journeys compared to the area around Maghull. This is due to the lack of a direct
rail service from the area and a need to railhead to stations on the Liverpool-Ormskirk or Liverpool-Kirkby
railways.
2.3.4 Station Access
Station access information for Maghull has been analysed as part of surveys undertaken on the Northern
Line for Merseytravel in both 2007 and 2008. Passengers on the Liverpool-bound platform were surveyed,
and this has highlighted both the mode of travel to the station and catchment area.
Modal split information for journeys to the station has been extracted from the survey data, which is
summarised in Table 2.7 below.
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Table 2.7: Mode of access to stations on the Northern Line
Mode of Access Ormskirk Aughton
Park Town
Green Maghull Old Roan Aintree Kirkby
Bus 13% 0% 0% 15% 8% 7% 24%
Car, as driver 25% 19% 46% 30% 15% 31% 12%
Car, as passenger 17% 15% 19% 21% 13% 10% 13%
Taxi 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 16%
Walk 42% 63% 34% 30% 62% 47% 33%
Cycle 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Source: Rail Access Analysis Report: Northern Line, Merseytravel October 2008
This shows a diverse picture across the range of stations. Aughton Park and Old Roan have high
proportions of passengers accessing the station by foot. These essentially serve as local stations for walk-
up demand. Kirkby, Maghull and Ormskirk all have a relatively high proportion of access by bus, which
reflects the presence of good feeder bus services into the stations. Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and
Aintree also have high proportions of access by car (either as a driver or passenger) which further
suggests that these stations are being used for rail heading or as park and ride stations. This is further
supported by evidence of average distances travelled to the station which is summarised in Table 2.8
below.
Table 2.8: Average distance travelled (km) to stations by mode
Mode of Access Ormskirk Aughton
Park Town
Green Maghull Old Roan Aintree Kirkby
Bus 7.5km - - 1.8km 1.9km 2.4km 2.1km
Car, as driver to station car park
6.7km - 3.8km 4.0km 1.8km 5.2km 3.0km
Car, as passenger 9.4km 0.8km 3.0km 4.6km 1.0km 5.1km 1.7km
Source: Rail Access Analysis Report: Northern Line, Merseytravel October 2008
These figures reveal that that Ormskirk has the largest catchment area, acting as a rail head and providing
both bus and rail interchange for a wide catchment area. Car drivers also travel relatively long distances to
access both Maghull and Aintree stations. Both of these stations are signed as park and ride sites from
the A59.
2.3.5 Station Facilities
Ormskirk
Ormskirk railway station is located 13 miles northeast of Liverpool Central and approximately 4 miles north
of the site of Maghull North. It is the terminus of Northern Line services from Liverpool and Northern Rail
services from Preston and provides step-free interchange between the services along the platform. It has
a staffed ticket office from first to last train and the bus interchange is located a short walk away.
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Photo 2.1: Ormskirk railway station Photo 2.2: Car park and cycle parking at Ormskirk
Source: Mott MacDonald Source: Mott MacDonald
The car park at Ormskirk is located adjacent to the station and provides a total of 84 car park spaces
(including a total of 10 spaces for blue badge holders). A Lancashire County Council car park nearby
provides an additional 40 spaces. The car park is easily accessed from all main radial routes into the
town. In addition a 24-space covered cycle rack is provided adjacent to the station building. Ormskirk is
one of 12 stations in Merseyside and surrounding areas which operate the Bike and Go bike hire scheme.
Aughton Park
Aughton Park railway station is located approximately 11½ miles northeast of Liverpool Central,
approximately 2½ miles north of the site of Maghull North. It serves a predominantly residential area south
of Ormskirk town centre.
The station is staffed from first to last train. It has limited access for the mobility impaired, with stepped
access provided to the platforms. No car parking spaces are available at the station, although four cycle
parking spaces are provided.
Town Green
Town Green railway station is located 10½ miles northeast of Liverpool Central, approximately a mile and
a half north of the site of the proposed Maghull North station.
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Photo 2.3: Town Green railway station Photo 2.4: Main car park at Town Green
Source: Mott MacDonald Source: Mott MacDonald
The station has a staffed ticket office from first to last train and has a footbridge with steps connecting both
platforms. Step-free access is available from the ticket office to the Ormskirk-bound platform but involves
a five minute walk via the adjacent road bridge. A small covered waiting area is provided with seats, and
Aughton Police Station is located within the station building. The station has two car parks offering a
combined total of 52 spaces (two of which are for blue badge holders); the main car park is located
adjacent to the Liverpool-bound platform, with a further small parking area adjacent to the Ormskirk-bound
platform.
Maghull
The station in Maghull is located 8 miles northeast of Liverpool Central and just over a mile to the south of
the proposed site of Maghull North. Demand figures above show that it is the busiest station between
Liverpool and Ormskirk. It is staffed from first to last train and offers step-free access to both platforms via
the adjacent level crossing, in addition to a footbridge. There are a range of facilities, including an M-to-Go
kiosk (which includes ticket sales), toilets, covered waiting facilities on both platforms, a bus interchange
adjacent to the Ormskirk platform and a large car park.
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Photo 2.5: Maghull station Ormskirk-bound platform Photo 2.6: Bus interchange at Maghull railway station
Source: Mott MacDonald Source: Mott MacDonald
The car park at the station has 278 spaces (18 of which are for blue badge holders) and is signed as a
park and ride facility from the A59 Northway. The car park is located alongside the Ormskirk platform and
includes blue badge parking spaces and 40 spaces in a covered cycle shelter close to the ticket office. In
addition, Maghull is one of 12 stations in Merseyside and the surrounding area which operate Bike and Go.
This is a bike hire scheme charged at £3.80 per 24 hours, plus an annual membership charge of £10.
Old Roan
Old Roan railway station is located 6½ miles northeast of Liverpool Central and approximately 2½ miles
south of the proposed site of Maghull North. The ticket office is staffed from first to last train and the
station is located adjacent to a bus interchange.
There are limited numbers of parking spaces at the station; three spaces are provided for blue badge
holders and six cycle racks are provided. The station is fully accessible with platforms accessed either via
stairs or by lift.
Aintree
Aintree station is located 5½ miles northeast of Liverpool Central and approximately 3½ miles south of the
proposed site of Maghull North. The ticket office is staffed from first to last train and there are a range of
facilities including toilets and covered seating areas.
The car park is easily accessed from the A59 Ormskirk Road and has a capacity of 104 spaces (eight for
blue badge holders). It is located adjacent to the Liverpool-bound platform; bus stops are provided
adjacent to the station building on the car park access road. Twelve covered cycle racks are also provided
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on the station platforms. Step-free access is provided from the car park to both platforms via ramps and a
footbridge.
Photo 2.7: Bus interchange at Aintree Photo 2.8: Car park at Aintree
Source: Mott MacDonald Source: Mott MacDonald
2.3.6 Station Catchment
Station catchment information for journeys to the station has been extracted from the survey data. The car
and bus catchment areas for various stations are provided in Figure 2.5 to Figure 2.12 below.
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Figure 2.5: Ormskirk catchment area Figure 2.6: Aughton Park catchment area
Source: Merseytravel, 2008 Source: Merseytravel, 2008
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Figure 2.7: Town Green catchment area Figure 2.8: Maghull catchment area
Source: Merseytravel, 2008 Source: Merseytravel, 2008
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Figure 2.9: Old Roan catchment area Figure 2.10: Aintree catchment area
Source: Merseytravel, 2008 Source: Merseytravel, 2008
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Figure 2.11: Fazakerley catchment area Figure 2.12: Kirkby catchment area
Source: Merseytravel, 2008 Source: Merseytravel, 2008
This information reveals that:
Ormskirk has a wide catchment area, including the immediate local area, the more rural areas between
Ormskirk, Southport and Preston, as well as bus and park and ride journeys from Skelmersdale;
Aughton Park draws car passenger demand from an area close to the station, with car driver demand
originating from the wider hinterland;
Town Green draws demand from a relatively wide area, including Lydiate, Ormskirk and Skelmersdale;
Maghull draws demand by bus from the immediate local area as well as longer distance car journeys
which are cross-boundary in nature from Skelmersdale into Merseyside;
Old Roan attracts demand mainly from the local areas of Netherton and Aintree, with some car drivers
from the Maghull and Skelmersdale areas;
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Aintree attracts demand mainly from its immediate local area, but includes some rail heading from the
Maghull and Skelmersdale areas; and
Fazakerley and Kirkby predominantly attract trips from the immediate local areas.
Together these plans indicate that the catchment areas of these stations overlap to some degree. The
Skelmersdale area in particular looks to a number of railway stations as its rail head; Ormskirk fulfils this
role for journeys by bus, with journeys by car divided between a number of stations, including Town Green,
Maghull and Aintree.
Additional surveys were undertaken in 2014 at Maghull, and the resulting catchment area is shown in
Figure 2.13 below.
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Figure 2.13: Maghull catchment area (2014)
Source: Merseytravel, 2014
This information shows similar patterns to the surveys undertaken in 2008, with the majority of journeys to
Maghull from coming from the immediate local area including Maghull and Lydiate. There are some
journeys undertaken from West Lancashire, including Skelmersdale and from the north western parts of
Kirkby.
Contains Ordnance Survey data© Crown copyright and database right (2014)
LEGEND
Maghull station
Trips to station
Kirkby
Skelmersdale
Ormskirk
Rainford
Netherton
Lydiate
Maghull
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2.3.7 Local Area
The existing station at Maghull serves the areas around Maghull and Lydiate, and also adjacent areas of
West Lancashire, including Skelmersdale. Population and employment statistics for the local area are
shown in Table 2.9 below.
Table 2.9: Population and socio-economic data for the local area
Ward Area Population (2011) % with no access to
private vehicle (2011)
% claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA),
July 2014
Molyneux (SE Maghull and Melling) 12,760 17.1% 1.7%
Park (NW Maghull and Lydiate) 11,900 15.7% 1.1%
Sudell (Central Maghull area) 12,680 17.7% 1.0%
Sefton Borough 273,790 28.5% 2.9%
Liverpool City Region 1,506,940 34.4% 3.5%
Aughton & Downholland 5,470 10.9% 0.8%
Bickerstaffe 1,990 8.4% 0.9%
Skelmersdale North 4,060 32.6% 2.8%
Skelmersdale South 6,460 28.7% 2.8%
England 53,012,460 25.8% 2.3%
Source: Census 2011 and NOMIS
This shows that:
The population of the catchment area is in the order of 55,500 people, although it should be noted that
this area forms the catchment area of a number of stations;
The immediate local area has a much lower proportion of households with no access to a private
vehicle compared to both the City Region and English averages.
The immediate local area has a lower Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claimant rate than the English
average, and both the Sefton and Liverpool City Region average; and
Skelmersdale has a higher JSA claimant rate than the English average and a higher proportion of
households without access to a private vehicle.
Further information from NOMIS has been accessed to investigate the JSA claimant rate over time, by age
group and by length of claim. This data is summarised in Table 2.10 and Table 2.11 below.
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Table 2.10: JSA claims by area, July 2008 – July 2014
Area 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Molyneux
(SE Maghull and Melling) 2.1% 3.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7%
Park
(NW Maghull and Lydiate) 1.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1%
Sudell
(Central Maghull area) 1.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.0%
Sefton Borough 3.1% 5.1% 4.6% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 2.9%
Liverpool City Region 3.8% 5.9% 5.1% 5.5% 5.6% 4.9% 3.5%
Aughton & Downholland 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8%
Bickerstaffe 1.0% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9%
Skelmersdale North 3.8% 7.6% 5.9% 5.7% 6.4% 5.6% 2.8%
Skelmersdale South 3.1% 6.5% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.1% 2.8%
England 2.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 2.3%
Source: NOMIS
This shows that over the last seven years the claimant rate in the Maghull area has been consistently
below both the national and City Region average. In the wider catchment area claimant rates vary from
below the national average in the rural hinterland (Aughton and Bickerstaffe) to above the national average
in Skelmersdale. Claimant rates have varied, peaking in 2009. Rates in 2014 are now lower than the
corresponding rate in 2008, which is in contrast to the national average.
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Table 2.11: JSA claims by age range and duration of claim, July 2014
Area Population aged 16-64
(2010)
JSA by age range JSA by duration of claim
18-24 25-49 50+ <6
months 6-12
months >12
months
Molyneux
(SE Maghull and Melling) 8,400 25.0% 53.6% 21.4% 55.6% 18.5% 25.9%
Park
(NW Maghull and Lydiate) 8,800 31.8% 45.5% 22.7% 55.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Sudell
(Central Maghull area) 7,800 37.5% 50.0% 12.5% 66.7% 20.0% 13.3%
Sefton Borough 166,200 25.4% 55.3% 19.3% 46.9% 18.7% 34.5%
Liverpool City Region 974,600 26.6% 55.9% 17.5% 49.3% 18.5% 32.1%
Aughton & Downholland 3,300 33.3% 50.0% 16.7% 80.0% 0.0% 20.0%
Bickerstaffe 1,300 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100% 0.0% 0.0%
Skelmersdale North 2,400 27.3% 54.5% 18.2% 30.8% 30.8% 38.5%
Skelmersdale South 4,100 22.7% 63.6% 13.6% 60.0% 15.0% 25.0%
England 39,747,200 23.5% 57.0% 19.5% 52.2% 17.2% 30.5%
Source: NOMIS
Within the immediate catchment area the proportion of JSA claimants aged less than 24 years is higher
than the City Region average; the adjacent areas of West Lancashire also typically have proportions higher
than the national average. In terms of duration of claims there are a high proportion of short term
claimants, suggesting short-term youth unemployment is an issue.
When looking at those aged less than 24 years of age who are not in education, employment or training
(so called NEETs), data is recorded at Local Authority level. This is summarised in Table 2.12 below.
Table 2.12: NEETs – comparison between Sefton Borough and Liverpool City Region
% NEET (2012) % NEET (2013) Annual Change
Sefton Borough 6.7% 5.7% -1.0%
Lancashire County 5.5% 5.3% -0.2%
Liverpool City Region 8.1% 7.0% -1.1%
England 5.7% 5.3% -0.4%
Source: Department for Education
This shows that the proportion of NEETs in Sefton is higher than the national average but lower than the
wider City Region. Proportions have fallen over the past year, but at a slightly lower rate than the City
Region as a whole.
This data as a whole suggests that although the immediate area around Maghull has lower unemployment
rates than the City Region as a whole there are some problems with youth unemployment. The
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surrounding areas such as Skelmersdale, which would likely form part of the catchment area for Maghull
North, have higher levels of unemployment and higher levels of short-term youth unemployment. By
providing improved public transport options from these areas access to the employment market in
Liverpool and the wider City Region will be improved.
The Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) from 2010 have been analysed for the local area. These provide
a ranking of local areas based on an index which considers a range of socio-economic factors, including
income, health, education and crime. The most and least deprived areas are shown in Figure 2.14 below.
Figure 2.14: Deprivation in Maghull and surrounding areas - Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010
Source: IMD and Mott MacDonald
Sefton District is ranked as the 83rd most deprived borough out of 354 nationally, according to the Index of
Multiple Deprivation. However, the more deprived areas are concentrated to the southwest of the Borough,
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including Bootle. The least deprived areas are concentrated on the coast around Formby, and also around
Maghull and Lydiate.
The adjacent areas of West Lancashire also show a distinct split. The Skelmersdale area shows high
levels of deprivation, whereas Ormskirk and the less populated rural hinterlands are less deprived.
2.3.8 Future Land Use Developments
The Sefton Local Plan sets out how development in the district will be managed from 2015 to 2030. This
was approved for publication by the Council on 22 January 2015 with the publication period lasting until 27
March 2015. Comments on the plan can be submitted during this time before the plan is submitted to the
Secretary of State for examination by the Planning Inspectorate. Following the examination and any
recommendations by the Inspector the Council can then adopt the Local Plan.
Within the Local Plan there are three development sites which are identified immediately to the east of the
proposed location of Maghull North railway station. These include the following:
MN2.29 – former Prison Site, Park Lane, Maghull 370 housing units
MN2.46 – land east of Maghull 1,400 housing units
MN2.46 – land east of Maghull, close to M58 J1 20ha of mixed employment use
Together the two housing sites comprise 1,770 housing units, which accounts for nearly 25% of the total
housing development in the Sefton Local Plan.
The latter two sites are subject to the policies contained within MN3, which identifies land at Ashworth
south and the need to phase development in a way in which to develop a high quality ‘urban extension’.
This includes:
A minimum of 1,400 housing units, including a mix of market and affordable housing;
20ha of serviced employment land to comprise a Business Park for land use classes B1 (light industry /
office), B2 (general industry) and B8 (storage and distribution);
Local retail centre of appropriate scale to serve the new development;
New public open space, including a neighbourhood park, play area and provision for outdoor sport; and
Development of a masterplan for the site.
Some restrictions are placed on development as part of this policy. There is a specific requirement for
25% of the employment development to be completed and now that the construction of the 500th dwelling
has taken place a bus service to the area and new south facing slip-roads are also obligated.
The developments are planned to be phased to link to new facilities and infrastructure. Planning
conditions, Section 106 and other legal agreements are planned to deliver a range of transport
improvements through appropriate developer contributions. This includes the provision of Maghull North
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railway station and park and ride facility and a contribution to southbound on and northbound off-slip roads
at M58 junction 1.
As of 8 January 2015 a total of 370 houses have been granted Conditional Approval on the site between
Park Lane and School Lane (Planning Application DC/2014/00980). Persimmon Homes now has full
planning permission. Land is to transfer over the summer. First house building is due in September 2016
with occupation from January 2017.
Other nearby development sites are also identified in the Local Plan. These include:
MN2.27 – Land at Turnbridge Road, Maghull 40 housing units
MN2.28 – Land north of Kenyon’s Lane, Lydiate 295 housing units
MN2.30 – Land east of Waddicar Lane, Melling 178 housing units
MN2.31 – Wadacre Farm, Chapel Lane, Melling 135 housing units
MN2.32 – Land south of Spencers Lane, Melling 18 housing units
MN2.33 – Land at Wango Lane, Aintree 25 housing units
MN2.38 – Land at former Bootle High School, Netherton 63 housing units
These sites are further away from the proposed railway station at Maghull North but still fall within the
potential catchment area. In addition, there are several employment sites to the west of Old Roan and
Aintree railway stations. This includes site MN2.47 the Dunnings Bridge Road Corridor, Netherton which
forms a Strategic Employment Location for a mix of B1, B2 and B8 land use classes, and MN2.51 the
Switch Car Site, Netherton which is allocated 4.7ha of mixed B1, B2 and B8 land use classes.
In adjacent authorities, Skelmersdale is identified as a key location for both employment and housing
developments in West Lancashire’s Local Plan. The plan identifies several sites within the town with a
combined capacity for 1,420 housing units in the period up to 2027, and states that Skelmersdale will
provide 52ha of land for new employment development, representing nearly 70% of total employment
developments in West Lancashire. This is largely based on making more intensive use of existing
employment sites. In Knowsley, sustainable urban extensions have been identified at Bank Lane, Kirkby
(for housing) and east of Knowsley Industrial and Business Parks (for employment).
Local development sites are identified in Figure 2.15 below.
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Figure 2.15: Local Development sites around Maghull
Source: Sefton, Knowsley and West Lancashire Local Plans
2.4 Identified Problems and Issues
2.4.1 Car Parking
One of the main problems on the Northern Line is parking at stations. Although there are a total of 558 car
parking spaces at stations between Ormskirk and Aintree (with an additional 174 spaces at Kirkby) these
have an occupancy rate of around 90%, with many having occupancy rates in excess of 95%, and there is
little opportunity to further expand the car parks.
Data from Merseytravel has been supplied from May 2011 on car park occupancy rates, and this is
summarised in Table 2.13 below – note that the number of parking spaces at some stations has
subsequently changed.
MAGHULL
ORMSKIRK
SKELMERSDALE
KIRKBY
Rainford
Kirkby
RAINFORD
Maghull
Old Roan
Aintree
AINTREE
Town Green
Aughton Park
MN2.29
Contains Ordnance Survey data© Crown copyright and database right (2014)
LEGENDExisting railway stationsRailway line serving Maghull NorthOther existing railway linesProposed housing sites (indicative)Proposed employment sites (indicative)Proposed mixed-use sites (indicative)Thornton-Switch Island Link Road
SITE OF MAGHULL
NORTH
LYDIATE
WADDICAR
MN2.46
MN2.51
MN2.47
MN2.38
MN2.27
MN2.28
MN2.33
MN2.32
MN2.31
MN2.30
Bank Lane, Kirkby
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Table 2.13: Car park occupancy rates on the Northern Line
Station Car Park Number of Spaces Maximum Use Occupancy Rate
Ormskirk 155 135 87%
Town Green 42 41 98%
Maghull 275 261 95%
Aintree 104 101 97%
Kirkby 82 79 96%
TOTALS 658 617 94%
Source: Merseytravel, May 2011
Note: Number of spaces at some stations has changed since survey in 2011. In some cases number of spaces is different to that
identified in section 2.3.5 describing current station facilities.
Although the number of spaces at some car parks has changed, it can be seen that occupancy at all
stations except Ormskirk is greater than 95%. Many spaces are occupied by 09:30, suggesting high levels
of use by commuters. This leaves little space for leisure users who wish to park and ride at off peak
periods and there is also anecdotal evidence of on-street parking around stations, suggesting that demand
for car parking exceeds the number of parking spaces at stations. Site visits suggest that car parking at
stations is at capacity, with the only available spaces being those reserved for blue-badge holders.
Photo 2.9: Town Green car park Photo 2.10: Maghull station car park
Source: Mott MacDonald Source: Mott MacDonald
In order to prevent overspill parking in the streets surrounding the stations waiting restrictions are provided.
At Station Road, Maghull, which is the main access road to the station from the west, there are generally
double yellow lines with no waiting at any time restrictions on both sides of the road. Residential streets
typically have a waiting restriction between 10am and 11am, in order to stop overflow all-day parking from
the station whilst limiting inconvenience to local residents. Car parking at the adjacent shopping precinct in
Maghull has prominent signs stating that parking is for customers only, which is limited to two hours.
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The roads around Town Green station are protected by waiting restrictions between 8am and 6pm
Monday-Saturday. This includes the main access road and also surrounding residential streets.
Observations on a site visit suggested that although the restrictions were observed on the access road,
parking did occur in the residential streets.
Photo 2.11: Parking restrictions at Maghull Photo 2.12: Parking restrictions at Town Green
Source: Mott MacDonald Source: Mott MacDonald
There is a need to increase the number of car parking spaces for rail users in the local area to cater for
existing demand, whilst also providing adequate future provision to attract people to park and ride and
switch to using the train rather than drive to their ultimate destination. This is particularly relevant for the
off-peak market, which is poorly served by the current park and ride offering; car parks fill up in the
morning peak period leaving few spaces for the use of off-peak travellers. Increasing the number of car
parking spaces at stations on the Northern Line will extend the park and ride option to these users in the
off-peak period, and encourage mode shift onto rail for these journeys.
2.4.2 Public Transport Provision
Public transport provision in the area varies widely; those areas with a railway station benefit from relatively
short journey times into Liverpool City Centre with a 15 minute headway. Those areas dependent on bus
services typically have longer journey times into Liverpool City Centre. Comparative journey times by
various modes are shown in Table 2.14 below.
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Table 2.14: Comparative journey times to Liverpool City Centre
Bus Journey Time Rail Journey Time
Car Journey Time (uncongested)
Car Journey Time (congested)
Ormskirk 68-69 minutes (2 per hour)
30 minutes (4 per hour)
23 minutes 30 minutes
Skelmersdale 103 minutes (2 per hour)
71 minutes (1 per day) No direct service 28 minutes 36 minutes
Town Green 57 minutes (1 per hour)
25 minutes (4 per hour)
22 minutes 29 minutes
Lydiate 48-54 minutes (3 per hour)
No direct service 18 minutes 25 minutes
Maghull
(Deyes Lane)
51 minutes (1 per hour)
No direct service 17 minutes 24 minutes
Maghull
(Station Road)
Early morning / evening services only
20 minutes (4 per hour)
17 minutes 24 minutes
Kirkby
36-47 minutes
(8 per hour)
50-61 minutes
(14 per hour)
18 minutes (4 per hour)
17 minutes 21 minutes
Aintree 28-35 minutes (8 per hour)
15 minutes (4 per hour)
15 minutes 21 minutes
Source: Merseytravel, National Rail Enquiries and AA Route Planner. Note congested journey times include an ‘AM Peak journey
time factor’ of 1.35 for the Switch Island to Liverpool City Centre section quoted in Travel in Merseyside 2012 (Merseyside
LTP)
This shows that in uncongested conditions car journey times are typically faster than both rail and bus
journey times. Bus journey times are relatively long, as a result of indirect journeys (for example, the
regular Skelmersdale services run via Ormskirk) and serving residential areas rather than main roads (for
example one Skelmersdale service runs via Aughton and Lydiate, and one runs via the northern areas of
Maghull). For reference a map showing direct bus services from the local area to Liverpool is shown in
Figure 2.16 below.
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Figure 2.16: Public transport options towards Liverpool in the study area
Source: Mott MacDonald and Merseytravel – note not all bus services are shown
The southern area of Maghull benefits from having easy access to the existing railway station. Public
transport provision from the northern areas of Maghull is comparatively poor, especially in terms of access
to the railway network. This is particularly true for the proposed development sites to the east of the
railway line. Towards Liverpool this area is served only by early morning and evening bus services; there
are alternative feeder bus services which connect into the railway station at Maghull. There are relatively
poor public transport links from the north of Maghull and Lydiate, with bus services having much longer
journey times when compared with journey times by car.
As from the 24th July 2016 s from 24/7/16 the 133 bus service from Kirkby via Maghull and Crosby to
Waterloo has been diverted from Melling Village to pass over M58 J1. This passes the station site along
School Lane and is hourly every day of the week. This change results from the Kirkby bus network review.
MAGHULL
ORMSKIRK
SKELMERSDALE
KIRKBY
Rainford
RAINFORD
Aintree
Town Green
Aughton Park
NETHERTON
Contains Ordnance Survey data© Crown copyright and database right (2014)
LEGENDExisting railway stationsDirect railway line to LiverpoolOther existing railway linesRegular direct bus service to LiverpoolInfrequent (peak / evening) bus service to LiverpoolBus termini
SITE OF MAGHULL
NORTH
LYDIATE
311
14X Kirkby Admin
19 Bramcote Walk
345 Waddicar
130 Old Roan
14/14A/20 Tower Hill
210/241/250Ashworth Hospital
310/311/345 Skelmersdale
X3 Civic Centre
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Skelmersdale also has poor public transport options towards Liverpool. Regular bus services offer a
journey time of an hour and forty minutes, running via Ormskirk (compared to a journey time by car of less
than half an hour for the more direct 16 mile journey). This leads to rail heading from the Skelmersdale
area, either by bus to Ormskirk or by car to a range of stations, such as Maghull and Aintree. It should be
noted that early morning and late evening journey options between Liverpool and Skelmersdale are very
poor, with only two buses from Skelmersdale timed to arrive in Liverpool before 09:00, whilst the last bus
from Liverpool to Skelmersdale departs from Liverpool at 17:39, arriving in Skelmersdale at 19:21. The
last bus from Skelmersdale to Liverpool departs at 18:22 arriving at 20:04.
Those people without access to a vehicle in the Skelmersdale area are effectively isolated with poor public
transport journey times, and no service offering a service after the early evening. By comparison, Ainsdale
on the Southport branch of the Northern Line (also 16 miles from Liverpool), has four trains per hour into
Liverpool with a journey time of 36 minutes, as well as five buses per hour with a journey time of between
56 and 58 minutes.
It is noted that the realisation of the land use developments in the area and the building of the station could
prompt a change in the local bus service offering. This would include making commercial operators aware
of potential new destinations and potentially a review of tendered bus services in the local area.
The opening of the new station at Maghull North will provide new public transport opportunities for the area
to the north and east of Maghull. It will also provide an alternative park and ride site to cater for demand
from the Skelmersdale area. Rail heading is likely to become easier from that area, with direct vehicle
access from the M58 at Junction 1 leading along School Lane direct to the car park at Maghull North.
2.4.3 Accessibility to Services
Sefton Access Plan5 forms the access strategy for Sefton Council, and sets out baseline accessibility
levels within the district. This includes access to key centres and services. In summary, the document
identifies the following:
Health – public transport access to hospital services at Aintree Hospital takes more than 30 minutes for
the majority of Sefton residents. Access to specialist hospitals is extremely difficult for the majority of
residents and access to Ormskirk Hospital is poor;
Employment – there is relatively poor access to West Lancashire and related cross-boundary
employment opportunities;
Education – post-16 colleges (not including schools with sixth forms) generally can be accessed by
public transport within 30 minutes. For a majority of Maghull residents access time is greater than 30
minutes; and
5 http://www.letstravelwise.org/files/768028275_LTP%202006-2011%20Appendix%2008.4.pdf?_sm_au_=i7Vvs3jFqtDRNRNN
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Major centres – for most of Maghull public transport journey times are in excess of 30 minutes to a
major centre.
There are also some specific cross-boundary travel issues, with Sefton residents accessing services in
adjacent Local Authority areas, such as West Lancashire (Ormskirk) and Liverpool.
In response to these issues the plan identifies that new development should be located in areas which are
well served by public transport. The new station at Maghull North will provide excellent public transport
links for the development sites in eastern Maghull, whilst also improving access by public transport to the
existing areas of northern Maghull. It not only provides good public transport connections within Sefton but
also provides good cross-boundary travel options into both Liverpool and West Lancashire.
2.4.4 Network Congestion
Network congestion on the main roads through Maghull, Switch Island and Aintree Village is a known
issue, and several schemes have been and are in the process of being implemented to provide minor
increases in capacity and to relieve congestion. This includes:
Thornton-Switch Island Link Road, to alleviate traffic congestion at Switch Island and through
Netherton (the A5758 Broom’s Cross Road is now open);
Provision of Variable Message Signs on the M57 and M58 on the approaches to Switch Island to
provide journey time information and encourage informed route choices; and
Minor junction improvements at Aintree Retail Park6.
Hourly traffic flows on the M57 and M58 on the approaches to Switch Island are shown in Figure 2.17 and
Figure 2.18 below.
6 http://modgov.sefton.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/s34542/FD%201012%20-%20A59%20Retail%20Park%20Access%20-%20f.pdf Accessed 03 October 2014
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Figure 2.17: Annual hourly traffic flows M57 between J6 and Switch Island, northbound (March 2013-April 2014)
Source: TRADS / HATRIS database, Highways Agency, 2014
Figure 2.18: Annual hourly traffic flows: M58 between J1 and Switch Island westbound (March 2013-April 2014)
Source: TRADS / HATRIS database, Highways Agency 2014
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Both roads show high average hourly flows in the morning and evening, which correspond to expected
peak commuting times. On the M57 the typical morning peak flows is around 2,100 vehicles per hour,
rising to over 3,000 vehicles per hour in the evening peak. Traffic flows on the M58 are lower, with around
1,400 vehicles per hour in the morning peak and 1,200 vehicles per hour in the evening peak. All of this
traffic (plus traffic on the A59 and A5036) joins at the signalised junction at Switch Island, which can lead to
congestion and delays. Any improvements to the park and ride facilities in the Maghull area would impact
on this traffic, with the potential for drivers to switch to using park and ride facilities at the railway station.
There are a number of signalised junctions on the A59 between Maghull and Aintree Village, with a
number of retail parks between the Switch Island junction and Aintree Racecourse. These attractions,
together with the number of junctions, contribute to slow moving and queuing traffic on the approaches to
these junctions.
Photo 2.13: A59 Northway, Maghull Photo 2.14: A59 Aintree Village
Source: Mott MacDonald Source: Mott MacDonald
Evidence of road congestion is provided in the monitoring documents supporting the Local Transport Plan
for Merseyside. This presents various maps showing a journey time factor between the AM peak journey
time and a typical ‘free-flow’ journey time. The resulting congestion map of Sefton is shown in Figure 2.19
below.
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Figure 2.19: Road congestion in Sefton in 2012
Source: Travel in Merseyside, 2012 (LTP Merseyside)
The darker red colours shown in Figure 2.19 indicate those routes with higher factors – i.e. those routes
where peak time congestion and delay are typical. The green and light blue colours indicate routes where
there is less variation in journey time with peak time speeds similar to free flow speeds.
The routes extending through Switch Island, in particular the southbound A59 through Maghull and the
south/west bound M58 are both identified as congestion points. Similarly the southbound A59 through
Walton towards Liverpool City Centre, and the A5036 Dunnings Bridge Road towards Seaforth and Bootle
are also identified as congestion points.
All of these routes are used by road traffic from the Maghull area travelling towards Liverpool City Centre.
Increasing car parking capacity on the Northern Line is likely to encourage mode shift onto the railway and
reduce traffic and congestion on the identified radial routes into Liverpool.
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2.5 Need for Change
The Liverpool City Region’s infrastructure will undergo significant investment and development over the
coming years as highlighted in the City Region’s Strategic Economic Plan. In 2013, £1 billion of capital
investment began on two key projects – the Mersey Gateway and Liverpool 2. These major projects
alongside other projects that form the SuperPort initiative will drive growth in the City Region.
2.5.1 Vision for Liverpool City Region
The vision of the Liverpool City Region is “to regain our status as a premier European City Region by 2025.
We will secure an internationally competitive economy and cultural offer; an outstanding quality of life; and
vibrant communities contributing to and sharing in sustainable wealth creation”. In support of this the
strategic priorities are:
The Premier Destination Centre;
The Well-Connected City Region;
The Creative and Competitive City Region;
The Talented and Able City Region; and
The City Region of Sustainable Neighbourhoods and Communities.
The scheme at Maghull North will help to connect the wider City Region by improving access to the railway
network, and improving access by public transport into the local area.
2.5.2 Vision for Sefton Borough
The Vision for Sefton included in the Local Plan is:
“Sefton has successfully planned for and delivered sustainable development and growth across
the borough, meeting the needs of its communities. At the same time Sefton has retained and
enhanced what makes it special – varied and distinctive communities living in an outstanding
natural environment in a coastal location.”
The Local Plan makes mention of improving access to facilities, employment and services through the
provision of new infrastructure. This includes the new railway station at Maghull North.
2.5.3 Synergy with Other Schemes
There are a number of schemes within the local area which have varying degrees of interaction with the
scheme at Maghull North. These schemes vary from non-committed interventions on the railway network
to interventions on the local road network that have the potential to impact on mode choice in the area.
These schemes are summarised in Table 2.15 below.
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Table 2.15: Synergy with other local schemes
Scheme What is being delivered Scheme benefits Inter-relation with Maghull North
Switch Island Driver Information Signs
Variable message signs on M57 and M58 detailing congestion and journey times on local roads
Journey time information will allow drivers to make informed route choices
Potential to reduce congestion and journey times on local roads. Limited impacts on mode split / journey times to Liverpool.
M58 Junction 1 New southwest facing slip roads at junction east of Maghull.
Improved accessibility and journey times for journeys from eastern Maghull towards south. Provides access from south onto School Lane which leads directly to new development sites and to Maghull North station.
Improved accessibility to local area from south, potentially increasing station catchment area, but also impacts on car journey times from local area
Thornton-Switch Island Link New link road from A565 at Thornton to Switch Island (the A5758 Broom’s Cross Road is now open.)
Improved east-west accessibility and journey times.
Limited impacts on mode split from Maghull area. Limited impacts on journeys towards Liverpool.
Burscough Curves Long Term Rail Strategy scheme for reinstatement of short sections of railway line to allow through travel between Southport and Ormskirk, and Southport and Preston
Improved accessibility. New rail markets from Ormskirk and Southport.
Potential for increased demand at Maghull North with new journey opportunities to Southport via Ormskirk.
Burscough Bridge Interchange
Long Term Rail Strategy scheme for two-level station at Burscough Bridge for interchange between Ormskirk-Preston and Southport-Wigan-Manchester services.
Improved accessibility. New rail markets from Ormskirk and Southport.
Potential for increased demand at Maghull North with improved interchange onto services to Manchester, Wigan and Southport via Ormskirk and Burscough.
Ormskirk-Preston improvements
Long Term Rail Strategy scheme for re-signalling, line speed improvements and electrification of route. Direct services from Liverpool-Preston via Ormskirk would link through Liverpool City Centre to South Liverpool.
Allows direct operations from South Liverpool through the City Centre to Preston via Ormskirk. Improved accessibility to north, and new direct rail markets opened.
Potential for increased demand at Maghull North, with new direct journey opportunities to Preston and the north as well as direct journeys to South Liverpool.
Liverpool City Centre Rail Capacity
Long Term Rail Strategy scheme to maximise use of Moorfields and increase capacity at Liverpool Central.
Allows rail demand to/from Liverpool City Centre to continue to grow.
Increasing capacity in Central Liverpool will not constrain demand growth at outlying stations, such as Maghull North.
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Scheme What is being delivered Scheme benefits Inter-relation with Maghull North
North Mersey Branch Long Term Rail Strategy scheme to upgrade line between Aintree and Bootle to passenger standard.
Allows Liverpool-Ormskirk services to be split between North Mersey Branch and existing route via Kirkdale. Frees-up capacity on existing line for services to Skelmersdale via Kirkby.
Potential for increased demand at Maghull North, with new journey opportunities to Bootle. New rail link to southwest of Sefton District improving accessibility from Maghull.
Skelmersdale Rail Link and Electrification of Kirkby-Wigan Line
New railway station in Skelmersdale Town Centre with direct service to Liverpool Central, with electrification of line from Kirkby to Wigan
Improved accessibility and journey times by public transport towards Liverpool.
Overlap in catchment areas between Skelmersdale and Maghull North. Direct services from Liverpool to stations east of Kirkby likely to abstract some demand. Impacts on station choice – will offer improved journey choice between Skelmersdale and Liverpool.
Headbolt Lane New railway station to east of Kirkby with direct service to Liverpool Central.
Improved accessibility and journey times by public transport towards Liverpool.
Likely to be some overlap in catchment areas between Headbolt Lane and Maghull North, especially from Skelmersdale area for those using park and ride. Impacts on station choice – will offer improved journey choice between Skelmersdale and Liverpool.
Source: Mott MacDonald
None of the road schemes are likely to have major impacts on the proposed schemes at Maghull North.
M58 Junction 1 and A5758 Broom’s Cross Road will both provide improved accessibility in the local area
by car. The enhanced motorway junction will provide enhanced accessibility from the development sites
east of Maghull, with potential impacts on journey times towards Liverpool from the area. This will have
two effects, namely increasing the catchment area of Maghull North station, but also increasing the
attractiveness of car journeys into Liverpool. The A5758 Broom’s Cross Road improves east-west
accessibility and is likely to have limited impacts on journeys from the local area towards Liverpool.
The Driver Information Signs at Switch Island are being delivered by the Highway Agency as part of the
national Pinch Point Programme. This will deliver small scale changes to the strategic road network to
help stimulate growth in the local economy and well as to relieve congestion and improve journey time
reliability. The scheme itself will provide variable message signs which will provide local journey time
information. This will allow drivers to make informed route choices. It is likely to have minor journey time
impacts and will have limited impacts on the Maghull North proposals.
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The proposed new station at Headbolt Lane, Kirkby and the rail link to Skelmersdale Town Centre both
cater to the catchment area of Maghull North. Therefore, both are likely to abstract demand from the
proposed station. It is noted that the catchment areas of all three stations are likely to overlap. However,
these schemes together with Maghull North will offer improved journey choices from West Lancashire to
Liverpool.
The enhancements to the Ormskirk-Preston line, improvements at Burscough and the upgrade of the North
Mersey Branch are all likely to influence demand at Maghull North. All three of these schemes will provide
new or improved journey opportunities by rail, with a consequent increase in demand at Maghull North. Of
these, the direct services to Preston and South Liverpool and the new routing via Bootle are likely to have
the largest impacts.
Capacity enhancements in Central Liverpool are also likely to impact on Maghull North. Changes will allow
demand into Liverpool to continue to grow, including from Maghull North.
None of the rail schemes identified above are committed at this stage, and therefore they have not been
considered in the demand forecasts produced for Maghull North.
2.5.4 Internal and External Business Drivers
The key business drivers for the scheme can be divided into legal requirements, policy drivers and future
land use developments. These are discussed in more detail below.
Accessibility Action Plan
The DfT published its Accessibility Action Plan (Transport for Everyone: an action plan to improve
accessibility for all) in December 2012. The aims of the plan fit with those developed as part of the
Department’s 2012-15 Business Plan and include to “deliver better access to jobs and key services
through an accessible and socially inclusive transport system, by removing the barriers to travel and
ensuring that social impacts are addressed in policy development and service delivery”.
The new station at Maghull North fits with these aims, with the station effectively integrated with new
housing and employment developments to the east of Maghull. This improves public transport
accessibility, giving access to the wider City Region employment market for residents and giving residents
of the wider area easy access to and from the employment developments in the area.
City Region
There are a number of policies and plans which are relevant to the Liverpool City Region which set out the
need for transport improvements to support economic growth. These include the Merseyside Local
Transport Plan, as well as the Liverpool City Region Deal with Government and the Long Term Rail
Strategy. The City Region aims to place transport at the heart of economic development; targeted
transport improvements are likely to improve accessibility to new development sites and help link the City
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Region. Maghull North is specifically mentioned as a potential new station in the Liverpool City Region
Long Term Rail Strategy, published in summer 2014.
By providing a new railway station in the north of Maghull easy access is provided to the new housing and
employment sites to the east of Maghull. This will effectively integrate the site with the rest of the City
Region, providing easy access to the employment site and linking the housing development with the wider
employment market in Liverpool and the City Region.
Car Parking and Congestion
Park and Ride facilities at the site will provide marginal benefits of reduced congestion on the A59 radial
route into Liverpool, contributing to improved journey time reliability. It will abstract demand from nearby
stations where station car parks are full, with 90% occupancy rates not uncommon. The location of the
station will allow direct access from Junction 1 of the M58 motorway, and is likely to reduce traffic through
Maghull and the Switch Island junction. It is anticipated that demand from the Skelmersdale area in
particular would benefit from the new station, with reduced journey times to access the rail network.
Reducing highway network congestion fits with the Sefton Core Strategy transport network priorities, which
includes reducing high traffic levels, especially at Switch Island.
Sefton Local Plan and Maghull East Developments
The developments on land east of Maghull are identified within the Sefton Core Strategy, with the aim to
provide a high quality urban extension. In January 2015 conditional planning approval was granted for 370
houses on the Ashworth Hospital South site between Park Lane and School Lane (Planning Application
DC/2014/00980), whilst land east of Maghull (south of School Lane) has been identified within the Local
Plan for housing and employment. These two land allocations would provide a total of 1,770 housing units
(nearly 25% of the total in Sefton District). In additional 20ha of serviced employment land is allocated to
the site south of School Lane.
The railway station at Maghull North is an integral part of the development sites to the east of Maghull. It
will improve public transport accessible to the north and east of Maghull and provide bus/rail interchange
for the local Maghull bus services. The full development potential of the site is specifically dependent on
the opening of the station.
2.6 Scheme Description
2.6.1 Scheme Objectives
The scheme aims are as follows;
Improve accessibility by public transport, especially from the northern areas of Maghull;
Enhance access to both Liverpool City Centre and other employment hubs across Sefton and
Merseyside in order to target deprivation;
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Reduce congestion on major roads into Liverpool, and also on local roads in Maghull relating to traffic
to and from the park and ride site at Maghull Station;
Encourage the use of public transport, especially from new developments in northern Maghull; and
Alleviate car parking pressure at Maghull and other stations, in order to avoid bottlenecks and
overcapacity of park and ride facilities.
In order to realise and measure the full potential of the new station the following objectives have been set:
Increase rail patronage on the Northern Line, measured by increased station footfall at stations
between Aintree and Ormskirk including Maghull North;
Increase car parking capacity at stations between Aintree and Ormskirk, reducing parking pressure at
existing car parks at Aintree, Maghull, Town Green and Ormskirk;
Reduce road congestion and longer-distance commuting by car into Liverpool; and
Maximise the use of public transport, especially rail, to access the new development sites in Maghull.
2.6.2 Proposed Scheme
The proposed scheme at Maghull North involves:
New railway station, with minimum 6*18m cars = 120m length platforms;
Step-free access to both platforms via lifts and footbridge within station footprint;
Access also provide via steps;
Secure, staffed ticket office operating up to 18 hours a day;
Booking hall , and glazed passenger waiting shelters on both platforms;
Real time passenger information, CCTV and help point;
156 space car park accessed from School Lane;
Covered secure cycle parking and storage;
Footpaths to School Lane and Park Lane;
Cycle routes linked to School Lane and Park Lane; and
Bus lay-bys on School Lane with walking route to station.
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Photo 2.15: Proposed location of Maghull North, looking
north from School Lane
Photo 2.16: Proposed location of station building, looking
east from School Lane
Source: Merseytravel Source: Merseytravel
The proposed layout of the proposed station scheme, as well as visualisations are shown in Figures 2.20
to Figure 2.23 below.
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Figure 2.20: Indicative scheme layout of the station
Source: Network Rail and Buckingham Group Contracting
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Figure 2.21: Indicative cross-section of station building and footbridge
Source: Network Rail and Buckingham Group Contracting
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Figure 2.22: Indicative visualisation of station
Source: Network Rail and Buckingham Group Contracting
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Figure 2.23: Indicative visualisation of station building and car park
Source: Network Rail and Buckingham Group Contracting
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2.6.3 Benefits and Impacts
The scheme will improve accessibility in the northern areas of Maghull, providing a new public transport
option in the local area. It will provide improved linkages from Liverpool and the wider City Region into the
housing and employment development sites east of Maghull. This contributes towards improved access to
employment, education and leisure facilities in Liverpool and the larger centres of the wider City Region
and surrounding area.
The car park at the station is likely to provide an alternative, key park and ride facility for commuting trips
especially towards Liverpool. Its location, easily accessed from M58 J1 will be relatively attractive for
passengers who rail head from outside the City Region, especially from Skelmersdale. Consequently this
will have several implications:-
replace some existing park and ride trips from stations such as Ormskirk, Aughton Park, Maghull and
Town Green;
encourage car drivers to park and ride at the new station; and
potentially reduce overflow parking in streets adjacent to existing rail stations.
This will reduce demand at the existing station car parks, which will then be able to adequately serve all
markets (for example, off-peak leisure travellers who may currently have trouble parking at stations where
the car parks are full or nearly full). It also has the potential to reduce overflow parking in streets adjacent
to existing stations.
By attracting car drivers to park at the station there will be a consequential reduction in traffic from the local
area towards Liverpool. This will produce marginal economic benefits, through reductions in congestion
and improved reliability of car journey times.
2.6.4 Measures for Success
In line with the Treasury’s Magenta Book7 a monitoring and evaluation programme for the scheme has
been developed; this is discussed in further detail in Section 6.7 where a causal chain diagram is provided.
The measures of success of the project are summarised in Table 2.16 below.
7 The Magenta Book: Guidance for evaluation, HM Treasury, April 2011
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Table 2.16: Measures for success – definitions of success against scheme objectives
Objective Measure for success
General – deliver scheme to time, budget and specification
Fully accessible station with 156 space car park opened by May 2018 within current estimated budget.
Increase rail patronage on the Northern Line between Aintree and Ormskirk
Increased demand (measured by ORR station footfall) at stations between Aintree and Ormskirk, including Maghull North
Increase car parking capacity on the Northern Line between Aintree and Ormskirk
Increased car parking spaces between Aintree and Ormskirk, Meeting parking demands at the station with additional park and ride capacity.
Reduce road congestion and longer-distance commuting by car into Liverpool
Increase rail’s mode share of trips from the Maghull area into Liverpool
Maximise the use of public transport, especially rail, to access new development sites in Maghull
Mode share of trips to and from the development sites to the east of Maghull
Source: Mott MacDonald
These measures primarily make use of existing data sources, such as the National Rail Passenger Survey
(NRPS) and train count data. Some bespoke surveys may be required to supplement these data sources,
including car park occupancy surveys and traffic count and speed data on local roads. These are
discussed in more detail in section 6.7.
2.6.5 Impact of Not Changing
The existing car parking situation on the Northern Line between Ormskirk and Aintree suggests that there
is little opportunity for further growth in the park and ride market. Station car parks are currently operating
at or near capacity and this is likely to effectively cap any growth in rail heading to these stations. This is
likely to further impact on mode choice and road congestion in the local area. There are also problems
with overspill car parking in residential streets surrounding the existing stations, with some roads now
subject to yellow line ‘no waiting’ restrictions.
Rail journey times are comparable with car journey times and offer an attractive alternative mode. In
comparison, bus journey times are much longer and less attractive. With car parks at stations at or near
capacity a large proportion of potential rail passengers may simply choose to drive to their destination
instead of the station. This will adversely impact on congestion on the local road network, and lead to
reduced reliability in terms of journey times.
The new development sites adjacent to the proposed station are relatively poorly connected by public
transport at the current time. Should the station not be progressed then it is likely that car trips would
represent a much higher proportion of journeys to and from the site – this is explicitly stated in the
Transport Assessment in support of the housing development off School Lane (Planning Application
DC/2014/00980) where trip rates for the development have been presented as two scenarios, both with
and without the new station.
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2.7 Option Appraisal
Four options were identified in the earlier Option Appraisal Report completed in May 2014, and these are
presented below.
2.7.1 Do Nothing
The Do Nothing scenario would provide no improvement options or solutions. It is most likely that the
station car parks at Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and Aintree will continue to operate at or above
capacity and that any rise in rail demand will merely exacerbate this. In reality it is likely that lack of
sufficient car parking at these stations will effectively cap rail demand, which will discourage people from
using the railway leading them to choose other modes of transport. This is likely to lead to growing use of
the car, leading to increasing levels of congestion on the A59, M57 and M58 around Maghull and through
Aintree Village. This is neither a socially or environmentally viable outcome.
2.7.2 Option 1
This option would double-deck the existing car park at Maghull in order to extend the car park by around
160 spaces. This would provide an approximate 60% increase in capacity of the car park, which takes into
account the need to provide access ramps onto the second level. This would result in a car park at
Maghull with 435 car parking spaces.
This would provide additional car parking capacity at Maghull, further alleviating any overspill parking in
adjacent residential areas. It would allow for future growth in demand for park and ride journeys, both
locally from Maghull as well as further afield in Skelmersdale and West Lancashire.
It is noted that this option may not be acceptable to local residents, as the car park would overlook
properties adjacent to the west side of Maghull railway station. It would also not be in keeping with the
predominantly residential nature of the local area.
2.7.3 Option 2
This option would provide a new station at Maghull North, accessed from School Lane. It would not
include a car park, and as such it is envisaged that this would take the form of the preferred option
identified by Network Rail in their 2008 study but with no car park attached.
The design would include full step-free access to both platforms via lifts and a footbridge, with steps to the
footbridge also provided. It would include two platforms with a minimum length of 120m each as well as a
staffed ticket office, toilet, waiting room and glazed passenger waiting shelters on both platforms. Realtime
passenger information would be provided. Footpaths and cycle routes linked to School Lane and Park
Lane would be provided along with secure cycle parking.
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This option would improve access from Lydiate and northern Maghull, but as a local walk-up station rather
than acting as a park and ride site. There will be some benefit to the existing station at Maghull through
reduced park and ride from the northern areas of Maghull and the subsequent reduction in traffic on local
roads. Based on the level of parking at Maghull station it is not considered to be feasible to provide a new
station in this location without car parking facilities.
2.7.4 Option 3
This option would provide a station at Maghull North identical to that in Option 2, with the addition of a 200
space car park. It is envisaged that this would take the form of the preferred option identified by Network
Rail in their 2008 study, as shown in Figure 2.24 below.
Figure 2.24: Proposed station at Maghull North
Source: Network Rail, 2008
This option would improve access from Lydiate and northern Maghull; it would aim to encourage park and
ride trips from the Maghull, Lydiate and Skelmersdale areas to switch to using the new station at Maghull
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North. Access to the proposed station is from the M58 J1 and School Lane, and would reduce traffic
through Switch Island, the A59 and local roads towards the existing station at Maghull. Parking demand at
existing stations, including Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and Aintree would be reduced, allowing these
stations to fully cater for off-peak park and ride demand.
2.7.5 Option Summary
An assessment of the options against the various identified issues is provided in Table 2.17 below.
Table 2.17: Addressing the issues – which schemes solve which problems
Option Alleviate car parking pressure at existing
stations
Improved access by rail from northern
Maghull
Reduced road congestion
Supports developments in northern Maghull
Do Nothing
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Source: Mott MacDonald
This shows that the Do Nothing option is not viable; it offers no improvements to the identified problems.
Of the other options, Option 1 would alleviate two of the four issues and Option 2 would alleviate three of
the issues. Option 3 would provide improvements across all four issues, and is the preferred option in
terms of addressing all of the issues.
2.8 Strategic Fit
This section provides a brief overview of how the scheme fits with the vision and policies contained within
national, regional and local plans.
2.8.1 National Policies
Central Government policy has had a clear focus on transport and economic growth in recent years. The
Maghull North scheme provides a strategic fit with many of these policies through improving access by rail
within the City Region and improving access to the new employment and housing developments to the
east of Maghull.
Transport
The National Transport Strategy states that transport investment should support private sector investment
and support a rebalanced economy to ensure sustainable prosperity for all. In addition, the White Paper
Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon (2011) sets out a vision for:
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“A transport system that is an engine for economic growth but one that is also greener and safer and
improves quality of life in our communities”.
The new station at Maghull will improve accessibility by public transport to and from the local area and the
new housing and employment development sites adjacent to the station. It will also improve access from
the local area to the wider employment market in Liverpool and the City Region.
There are also a number of national policies which relate to improving accessibility to, and integration of
public transport, especially for the mobility impaired. These include:
Transport for everyone: an action plan to improve accessibility for all; and
Door to door: a strategy for improving sustainable transport integration.
By providing a new station in the northern area of Maghull public transport accessibility is improved for all
sections of the population, especially for those who have no access to a private vehicle. Bus stops on
School Lane outside the station will allow for cross-mode interchange to local bus services around
Maghull.
Economic Growth
Economic growth is one of the main drivers of National Government policy. The Plan for Growth (2011)
set out the Government’s economic policy objective:
“To achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth that is more evenly shared across the country and
between industries.”
One of the four key ambitions stated within the Plan for Growth (2011) is to encourage investment and
exports as a route to a more balanced economy. In addition, the National Planning Policy Framework
recommends that plans address barriers to investment, promote accessible development and exploit
opportunities for the use of sustainable transport.
The new station at Maghull North is seen as a constituent part of the new housing and employment
developments to the east of Maghull. It would provide easy public transport access to and from the sites,
with excellent access into Liverpool and the wider City Region.
2.8.2 Regional Policies
A number of regional transport and economic growth policies have been reviewed, relating both to
Merseytravel and the Liverpool City Region.
Merseytravel Corporate Plan
The Corporate Plan details the vision as follows:
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“Move the Liverpool City Region forward by striving to deliver a world class transport network”.
This is supported by a mission statement and specific themes. The mission is to “improve the social,
environmental and economic wellbeing of the Liverpool City Region, by leading the delivery of the Local
Transport Plan and enabling an integrated transport system that is high quality, customer focussed and
provides value for money”.
In terms of particular themes the scheme provides a positive fit with the following:
Embed transport in key City Region Developments;
Improving connectivity within the City Region and our immediate boundaries;
Review and develop a growth plan for integrated local rail services for 2014-2019; and
Develop a long term integrated rail strategy for future infrastructure investment for the City Region.
The station at Maghull North supports these themes through being a constituent part of the developments
to the east of Maghull. It would act as the public transport gateway for the new housing and employment
developments in the area. It would also provide a rail head for cross-boundary trips from the Skelmersdale
area.
Transport
Transport is fundamental to the LCR’s ambitions to develop the City Region into a globally competitive
freight and logistics hub. The LCR Strategic Economic Plan (SEP, 2014) promotes good transport
connectivity as essential for the quality of life and economy of the City Region. Moreover, the LCR Growth
Deal with Central Government confirms the priority to put transport at the heart of the economic
development through increased investment to support the creation of jobs.
One of the aims of the new station at Maghull North is to open up the development sites to the east of
Maghull, providing a high quality public transport option for journeys especially towards Liverpool.
The Third Local Transport Plan sets out the improvement plans for Merseyside travel between 2011 and
2024. The vision is to create a low carbon city, where sustainable transport is the mode of choice and
contributes to the economy and wellbeing of residents. The six goals of the plan are:
To help create the right conditions for sustainable economic growth by supporting the priorities of the
Liverpool City Region, the Local Enterprise Partnership and the Local Strategic Partnerships;
Provide and promote a clean, low emission transport system which is resilient to changes to climate
and oil availability;
Ensure the transport system promotes and enables improved health and wellbeing and road safety;
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Ensure equality of travel opportunity for all, through a transport system that allows people to connect
easily with employment, education, healthcare, other essential services and leisure and recreational
opportunities;
Ensure the transport network supports the economic success of the City Region by the efficient
movement of people and goods; and
Maintain our assets to a high standard.
The new station at Maghull North fits neatly with many of these objectives, through encouraging the use of
public transport and supporting economic growth.
Long Term Rail Strategy
The Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy was published in summer 2014. It provides a “vital and
timely vision of the role that an expanded rail offer can play in facilitating the proposed accelerated
economic growth of the Liverpool City Region”.
Within the strategy twelve strategic packages are set out, which all contribute to a range of issues which
have been identified. The twelfth package identifies a number of new stations which respond to new
developments, new markets and areas of latent demand. Maghull North is named within the document as
one of the new stations to be taken forwards as part of the strategy.
The rail strategy was approved by the City Region’s Combined Authority in September 2014, showing that
Maghull North has high profile, political support and is included in various high level policies and plans.
Economic Growth
The LCRs Strategic Economic Plan indicates that there is a deficit of 90,000 jobs in the City Region that
needs to be addressed. A key goal of the LCR Employment and Skills Strategy is to reduce worklessness
by providing opportunities for people to move into work. To achieve this, the strategy indicates that more
weight will be given to projects and interventions which increase the number jobs.
Economic growth is central to LCR policy, with the LCR SEP stating that the overarching goal for the City
Region is to produce a step change in the scale of enterprise and business activity, to expand the business
base and accelerate economic growth. This is broadly supported by the new station at Maghull North,
which will provide improved links to the new development sites east of Maghull, and improve accessibility
to and from the site to Liverpool and the wider employment market in the City Region.
2.8.3 Local Policies
The Local Plan for Sefton sets out a vision for the borough in 2030, which states that “Sefton has
successfully planned for and delivered sustainable development and growth across the borough, meeting
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the needs of its communities”. There are more specific visions for each of the five individual areas of the
borough, including Maghull, Lydiate, Melling, Aintree and the surrounding villages, as follows:
Provision of a range of new homes and local facilities;
A high quality neighbourhood to the east of Maghull, which is well integrated with the existing urban
area;
New employment opportunities with a new high quality business park;
New shopping facilities in the centre of Maghull;
Improved access to services and facilities provided by Maghull North station, new links to the M58 and
reduced congestion; and
Continued economic importance of Aintree Racecourse and the retail park.
In addition there are 14 specific objectives in the local plan, referring to improving accessibility in general
and access to services in particular. The new station at Maghull North is specifically mentioned within the
Local Plan, and will help contribute to delivering a range of the plan’s objectives.
2.8.4 Policy Summary
The strategic fit of the scheme with national, regional and local policies is summarised in Table 2.18 below.
This includes a Red Amber Green (RAG) assessment of the scheme against various identified policies and
objectives.
Table 2.18: Strategic fit of scheme with national, regional and local policies
Policy Key Extracts Strategic
Fit
National Policy
Plan for Growth, 2011 To achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth that is more evenly shared across the country and between industries
Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon: Making Local Transport Happen
Vision for a transport system that is an engine for economic growth but is also greener and safer and improves quality of life in communities
Make travelling on foot, by bike and on public transport more attractive
Enabling choice and providing better information
Reduce emissions and the carbon impact of journeys
Investment in new projects that promote green growth
Increasing fairness and social mobility
National Planning Policy Framework
Presumption in favour of sustainable development
Building a strong, competitive economy
Ensuring the vitality of town centres
Supporting a prosperous rural economy
Promoting sustainable transport
Supporting high quality communications infrastructure
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Policy Key Extracts Strategic
Fit
Delivering a wide choice of high quality homes
Requiring good design
Promoting healthy communities
Protecting Green Belt land
Meeting the challenge of climate change, flooding and coastal change
Conserving and enhancing the natural environment
Conserving and enhancing the historic environment
Facilitating the sustainable use of minerals
Door to Door: a strategy for improving sustainable transport integration
Make connections between different steps in the journey, and different modes of transport, easier
Providing better interchange facilities
Transport for Everyone: an action plan to improve accessibility for all
To deliver better access to jobs and key services through an accessible and socially inclusive transport system, by removing the barriers to travel and ensuring that social impacts are addressed in policy development and service delivery
National Transport Strategy: ‘Transport an Engine for Growth’
Make public transport an easier option for everyone and invest in walking and cycling
Support a rebalanced economy to ensure sustainable prosperity for all
Support jobs, strengthen the supply chain and help position the UK as a global leader for transport and innovation
Sub National Policy
LCR – Local Enterprise Partnership
Knowledge Economy Plan
Low Carbon Economy Action Plan 2011-2015
Superport Action Plan 2011-2020
Visitor Economy Strategy to 2020
Merseyside Local Transport Plan
Sustainable Economic Growth
Clean, low emission transport system
Improved health, well-being and road safety
Equality of travel opportunity for all
Efficient movement of people and goods
Maintain assets to highest standard
Enhancing cross-Mersey linkages
Strategic Economic Plan (SEP)
Economic growth
Increased productivity
Rebalanced economy
Liverpool City Region Growth Deal
Freight and logistics hub
Superport
Mersey Gateway
Economic Review Address underlying levels of employment
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Policy Key Extracts Strategic
Fit
Achieve an economically active population on a par with the UK pre-recession
LCR Employment and Skills Strategy and Commissioning Framework
Accelerate growth
Halving number of deprived wards in LCR which are within England’s worst 10%
Liverpool City Region Deal with Government
Increase employment
Place transport at the heart of economic development
Harness LCR’s science and knowledge assets
Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy
Issue 9 – rail network does not always link where people live with where people work
Issue 18 – lack of park and ride capacity on the Merseyrail network
Package 8 – Ormskirk-Preston enhancements
Package 12 – new railway stations
Local Policy
Sefton Local Plan New station at Maghull North to reduce congestion on M58
New east Maghull neighbourhood and high quality business park
Sefton Economic Strategy 2012-2022
An economy that connects Sefton to the City Region and beyond…the benefits of growth are maximised for the people and places of the Borough.
Sefton Sustainable Community Strategy
Children and young people
Safer and stronger communities
Healthier communities and older people
Economic development and sustainability
Strategic Fit with new station at Maghull North
Strong strategic fit with policy
Neutral / minimal strategic fit with policy
Negative strategic fit with policy
Source: Mott MacDonald
2.9 Political Support for the Scheme
Maghull North is specifically mentioned in the Sefton Core Strategy and policies relating to land use
developments in the north east of Maghull. It is viewed as an integral part of new housing and employment
developments proposed for the area. Merseytravel are taking the scheme forward as part of this funding
submission. The project supports and is mentioned in a range of regional and local policies and plans as
detailed in Section 2.8 above.
There is widespread local support for the scheme, with various statements having been made by local
councillors and the MP for Sefton Central, Bill Esterson. The various comments are detailed in Table 6.8.
It is noted that Maghull Town Council have previously undertaken a survey, which shows that 71% of
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respondents suggest that transport improvements are needed, whilst petitions have been gathered in
support of the station.
The station is part of a package of measures developed for the Liverpool City Region, designed to “support
the city’s science and transport infrastructure”. This was supported by the Chancellor of the Exchequer on
3 July 2014, and forms a part of a range of measures designed to develop a ‘Northern Powerhouse’ in
trying to rebalance the country’s economy, providing a counter-weight to London and the South East of
England.
Maghull North is one of the new stations mentioned in the Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy.
This was approved by the Combined Authority in September 2014. Councillor Liam Robinson, Chair of
Merseytravel Committee of the Combined Authority said: “This is about thinking big and being co-ordinated
in the way we grow and develop the rail network, so we can ensure we are properly focussed on
supporting the growth of the Liverpool City Region economy, not purely for our benefit but as our overall
contribution to the UK economy…It’s essential that we consider how projects work together to improve
connectivity and capacity, rather than delivering piecemeal projects in isolation.”
A new station at Maghull North was identified within Network Rail’s Route Plan O: Merseyside, published in
2010, for completion in Control Period 4, although the scheme was subsequently delayed. Various
Network Rail approvals and recommendations have been made in respect of Maghull North. This includes
the London North Western Investment Panel recommending a GRIP1-3 study, and the Large Project Panel
approving the proposed station, both in September 2014.
Various announcements by the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer
have been made relating to the City Region Growth Deal, which includes the railway station at Maghull
North. Specific comments are contained in Section 6.6. This shows that the scheme backs a range of
policies and plans and has political support at both local and national level. Section 6.6 also provides
details on the methods of future consultation.
Merseyrail have provided a letter outlining their support for the scheme, and this is shown in Appendix A.
A letter of support has also been provided by the Homes and Communities Agency and this is shown in
Appendix B.
2.10 Consultation
Limited consultation on the project has been undertaken to date. Previous work on the station at Maghull
North was progressed to GRIP3, and was halted prior to formal consultation. However, press releases
from local politicians show that there is local support for the scheme.
Merseytravel have developed a Stakeholder Communication and Management Strategy to manage future
consultation and publicity for the scheme. Further dialogue with local residents to understand their views
and comments on the scheme will be held in 2016, prior to the submission of the planning application. In
addition, a Rail Information Project is planned to run for four to six weeks during the GRIP3 study which will
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allow comments to be received on the design of the scheme. More details on consultation are provided in
Section 6.6.2.
2.11 Conclusions
The proposed station at Maghull North is designed to provide a park and site for the northern areas of
Maghull and the wider catchment areas, including Skelmersdale. It is considered to be a constituent
part of the new housing and employment developments to the east of Maghull, which will be adjacent
to the station. The station will improve public transport links to the north of Maghull and provide
improved accessibility between the area, Liverpool and the wider City Region.
The station will alleviate existing transport problems in the area, notably lack of available parking
spaces at station car parks at Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and Aintree. Additional car parking
spaces at Maghull North will free up spaces at existing stations to more adequately cater to all
passengers, in particular off-peak leisure demand which may be discouraged from using park and
ride facilities due to lack of available parking spaces. Encouraging park and ride journeys is likely to
contribute to reducing traffic congestion in the local area.
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3.1 Introduction
The Economic Case assesses options to identify all of their impacts, and the resultant value for money, to
fulfil HM Treasury’s requirements for appraisal and demonstrate value for money in the use of taxpayers’
money. In line with HM Treasury’s appraisal requirements, the impacts considered are not limited to those
directly impacting on the measured economy, nor to those which can be monetised. The economic,
environmental, social and distributional impacts of the proposal are all examined using qualitative,
quantitative and monetised information. In assessing value for money, all of these are consolidated to
determine the extent to which a proposal’s benefits outweigh the costs.
The economic appraisal has been tailored to reflect the needs of the Outline Business Case and is
discussed under the following headings:
Demand forecasts;
Methodology;
Assumptions;
Appraisal Results;
Social and Distributional Impacts;
Environmental Impacts;
Wider Economic Impacts;
Appraisal Summary Table;
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits;
Value for Money Statement;
Sensitivity Tests;
Previous Analysis; and
Conclusion.
3.2 Demand Forecasts
In order to forecast demand at Maghull North we have made reference to the rail industry standard
Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH). We have considered the following:
Drive-up demand which is abstracted from adjacent stations, using a station choice model;
Drive-up demand which is new to rail, using a trip rate model;
Walk-up demand, which is new to rail using a trip rate model;
Demand from adjacent development sites, using a simple trip rate; and
3 Economic Case
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Walk-up and bus trips which are abstracted from Maghull, using a simple logit model.
The methodology is summarised in Figure 3.1 below.
Figure 3.1: Demand Forecasting Process
Source: Mott MacDonald
3.2.1 Drive-up Demand
A station choice model has been developed for the local area, and this looks at demand for the stations
between Ormskirk and Aintree, and also includes Fazakerley and Kirkby. It has been calibrated using
observed data and predicts station choice for drive-up demand (both car drivers and car passengers)
based on generalised costs and number of parking spaces; it also includes a station constant which has
been estimated for each station.
The model has been run both with and without Maghull North to show the relative change in demand at all
stations. No station constant has been calculated for Maghull North, and therefore we have had to apply
high level assumptions.
Abstraction from existing stations has been investigated as part of SDG’s Station Usage and Demand
Forecasts for Newly Opened Railway Lines and Stations produced in 2010 for the Department for
Transport (DfT). This included the following estimates:
Drive-up Demand
(Maghull Trip Rate)
Walk-up Demand
(Maghull Trip Rate)
Future Developments
(TRICS Trip Rate)
Opening Year
Do Something
Demand forecast
LCRTS Demand Matrix
Maghull
Drive-Up Abstraction
(Station Choice Model)
Walk-Up Abstraction
(PDFH4 B6.6)
Bus Abstraction
(PDFH4 B6.6)
LCRTS Demand Matrix
Ormskirk, Aughton
Park, Town Green,
Maghull, Old Roan,
Aintree, Fazakerley,
and Kirkby
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Edinburgh Park abstracted 22% of existing demand from South Gyle;
Shepherd’s Bush assumed one third of its total forecast demand would be abstracted from nearby
stations; and
Warwick Parkway assumed 60% of its total forecast demand would be abstracted from nearby stations.
A demand per car parking space percentage has been calculated for Maghull of 149% (i.e. more demand
than spaces which accounts for car passengers). The station constant term at Maghull North was initially
constrained so as to predict a similar demand per car parking space figure; this would assume that all car
parking spaces would be occupied by passengers abstracting from nearby stations.
As a reasonable estimate we have assumed that 30% of all drive-up trips at the station will be abstracted
from nearby stations. We have therefore constrained the station constant for Maghull North in order to
return a demand per car parking space figure close to 30%. We have then applied a factor to represent
car parking turnover rates; this has been developed from the mode split information at Maghull which
suggests each space is used on average by 1.49 vehicles.
The resulting demand abstraction is summarised in Table 3.1 below.
Table 3.1: Abstraction assessment – drive-up demand (2012 demand from model output)
Percentage change in demand Absolute change in demand
Aintree 0.0% 0
Aughton Park -7.9% -1,400
Fazakerley 0.0% 0
Kirkby 0.0% 0
Maghull 0.0% 0
Old Roan 0.0% 0
Ormskirk -3.9% -11,500
Town Green -37.1% -43,500
Maghull North 56,400
Source: Mott MacDonald
This shows that demand is predicted to be abstracted from stations to the north of Maghull North, with no
change recorded at Maghull itself. Examination of the station choice model shows that the majority of
drive-up demand at Maghull North will be attracted from the West Lancashire district, mainly from the
Skelmersdale, Town Green and Ormskirk areas.
Work to proportion out the abstracted demand to car drivers and car passengers has been undertaken
using mode split data from Maghull. This suggests that of the 56,400 journeys in 2012, 25,500 single
journeys per annum would be car drivers accessing the station and 30,900 single journeys per annum
would be car passengers. Together this would reduce revenue to the rail industry by £27,900 per annum,
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as passengers are abstracted from Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green to Maghull North which has
comparatively lower fares.
Work has also been undertaken to estimate new to rail demand at Maghull North for car drivers and car
passengers. This has made use of an isochrone based trip rate developed using local population and a
trip rate derived for Maghull station for car drivers. A demand uplift (as a percentage) has been applied to
car driving demand to represent car occupancy and take account of car passenger demand.
The number of available car parking spaces at Maghull North constrains the drive-up demand forecasts.
Drive-up demand growth has been capped once it reaches the number of available car parking spaces.
Only 70% of car parking spaces are predicted to be used by new drive-up demand, with the remaining
30% used by demand abstracting from nearby stations.
A summary of forecast drive-up demand is shown in Table 3.2 below.
Table 3.2: Drive-up Demand Forecast at Maghull North in 2018
Demand
Abstraction Total 56,400
Car Driver 25,500
Car Passenger 30,900
New-to-Rail Total 148,200
Car Driver 66,900
Car Passenger 81,300
Drive-up Totals 204,600
Source: Mott MacDonald
3.2.2 Walk-up Demand
In order to assess walk-up demand at Maghull North we have developed a trip-rate model. This is based
on surveys undertaken by Merseytravel at Maghull station. The catchment area of Maghull has been
divided into five concentric distance bands from the station. Population data from the 2011 census has
then been proportioned to each of the bands. Survey data from Merseytravel showing mode of access to
Maghull has also been divided into the distance bands, with calculations undertaken to produce an
estimate of walk-up demand in each distance band. This has allowed a walk-up trip-rate per thousand
population to be developed for Maghull.
A similar method has been employed to calculate the population in the time bands around Maghull North.
The trip-rate developed for Maghull has then been applied to the population statistics at Maghull North.
This assumes that walk-up trip rates at the two stations will be the same. At Maghull North we have
reduced the trip rates as appropriate to account for a lack of population to the east of the station site on
areas which have been identified as future development sites. These sites are dealt with separately in
Section 3.2.3 below.
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In order to eliminate double counting in the overlap area we have subtracted the existing trips to Maghull
from the Maghull North catchment area. These journeys are dealt with separately as part of an abstraction
assessment. A straight line running northwest to southeast has been drawn through the study area
equidistant from the stations. It has been assumed that there will be no net new trips to rail from the areas
to the south and west of this line.
Using this methodology it has been estimated that a total of 47,700 single journeys per annum in 2018 will
be generated at Maghull North, with associated annual revenue of (2010 prices).
3.2.3 Future Developments in Maghull
The Sefton Core Strategy identifies three development sites which are adjacent to the site of the proposed
station at Maghull North. These are:
MN2.29 – former Prison Site, Park Lane, Maghull 370 housing units
MN2.46 – land east of Maghull 1,400 housing units
MN2.49 – land east of Maghull, close to M58 J1 20ha of mixed employment use
In order to develop trip rates for the site we have reference the TRICS database to develop an appropriate
trip rate for rail passengers. Reference has been made to sites within 1km of a railway station.
For site MN2.29 we have assumed that all new rail journeys would use Maghull North station. For site
MN2.46 trips have been distributed to both Maghull railway station and the proposed station at Maghull
North using a simple logit model. This uses the methodology as specified in PDFH4 Section B6.4. Using
this method suggests that 46% of trips from the MN2.46 would use Maghull North, with 54% of demand
using Maghull.
The Sefton Local Plan makes some suggestion on the phasing of development, with policy MN3 imposing
specific conditions on the development of land east of Maghull. There is a specific requirement for 25% of
the employment development to be completed before the construction of the 500th dwelling takes place. It
is also stated that the majority of the employment development is likely to come forwards after 2020.
For the demand forecasts we have developed high level assumptions on development phasing based on
this information. It has been assumed that the Park Lane site will be fully developed by 2017, the opening
year of the station, with the Maghull East site contributing 140 houses (or 10% of the total) each year from
2018 until 2027, the final year of the Local Plan. It has also been assumed that 5 hectares of employment
land will be developed each year from 2019 until 2022. This satisfies the condition that 25% of the
employment land is released by the time of the completion of the 500th dwelling and that the majority of the
employment development will be post-2020.
The resulting development assumptions are shown in Table 3.3 below which also shows the expected
number of rail trips at Maghull North accruing from the developments.
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Table 3.3: Development Assumptions and resulting impacts on Maghull North
Year Cumulative
Development (dwellings)
Cumulative Development
(employment ha)
Total Trips at Maghull North
2018 510 - 300
2019 650 5 3.400
2020 790 10 5,700
2021 930 15 8,200
2022 1,070 20 10,600
2023 1,210 20 11,300
2024 1,350 20 12,100
2025 1,490 20 12,800
2026 1,630 20 13,600
2027 1,770 20 14,400
Source: Mott MacDonald
Note: Trips are rounded to nearest hundred and includes demand ramp-up for station opening.
3.2.4 Walk and Bus Abstraction from Maghull
An assessment of likely demand abstraction for walk-up and bus journeys from the existing station at
Maghull has been undertaken. This looks at the following scenarios:
Walking trips to Maghull which may switch to walking to Maghull North;
Bus trips to Maghull which may switch to walking to Maghull North; and
Bus trips to Maghull which may switch to bus to Maghull North.
An additional scenario, where walking trips to Maghull may switch to bus to Maghull North is considered
unlikely to occur so has not been accounted for in this assessment.
A simple logit model (as specified in PDFH4 Section B6.5) has been used to assess station choice in a
number of overlap areas, based on the relative crow-fly distances from the two stations. The assessment
considers the relative attractiveness of the two stations, based on catchment data for Maghull from 2014
supplied by Merseytravel. The results of this assessment are shown in Table 3.4 below.
Table 3.4: Abstraction assessment – walk-up and bus demand at Maghull
Maghull demand Switches to Maghull North % Switching Annual Demand
Walk-up Walk-up
Bus Walk-up
Bus Bus
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Maghull demand Switches to Maghull North % Switching Annual Demand
TOTAL ABSTRACTION 113,700
Note: All revenue is presented in 2010 prices. represents proportion of total bus demand at Maghull prior to abstraction which
will switch to Maghull North as walk-up trips, i.e. in total of bus demand at Maghull is forecast to switch to Maghull North
Source: Mott MacDonald
Using this methodology suggests that 113,700 single journeys per annum in 2018 will switch from Maghull
to Maghull North. It is noted that there is a transfer of revenue between the two stations; assuming that
tickets from Maghull North will be priced higher than at Maghull there will be (2010 prices)
per annum of new revenue in 2018 generated to the rail industry.
3.2.5 Demand Summary
A summary of the demand forecast at Maghull North is provided in Table 3.5 below.
Table 3.5: Forecast demand and revenue at Maghull North in 2018
Annual demand Net Revenue (2010 prices)
New car driver demand 66,900
New car passenger demand 81,300
Abstracted car driver demand 25,500
Abstracted car passenger demand 30,900
New walk-up demand 49,600
New demand from future developments 2,500
Abstracted walk-up demand 78,400
Abstracted bus demand 34,200
Do Something base year demand 369,300
Note: Revenue is presented in 2010 prices
Source: Mott MacDonald
This suggests that a total of 369,300 single journeys per annum will be generated by the station at
Maghull North in 2018. Of these 169,000 journeys will be abstracted from nearby station, and this
represents 45% of predicted total demand, with net new trips being generated by the scheme.
It has been assumed that ticket prices from Maghull North will be priced higher than those at
Maghull. This represents a change in the assumptions compared to those used in the economic
assessments in the Outline Business Case. This level of change has been made following discussions
held between Merseytravel and Merseyrail regarding the proposed pricing strategy for the new station. It is
estimated that demand at Maghull North will generate of new rail revenue (2010 prices) in
2018.
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3.2.6 Impacts on Through Travellers
As part of this assessment we have assumed that the additional call at Maghull North will add two minutes
(1.5 minutes journey time plus an additional 30 seconds dwell time) to the journey time between Maghull
and Town Green. This will reduce the attractiveness of journeys over this section of route and will result in
reduced demand and revenue for journeys which use this section of route. This assumption has been
confirmed by Merseyrail.
In order to assess the likely impacts we have run the long term rail strategy demand matrices through the
OR23 version of MOIRA, which was obtained to test the City Region Long Term Rail Strategy. This
features a revision to the Merseyside infill to take account of reduced demand from Ormskirk, Aughton
Park and Town Green to Liverpool as a result of abstraction to the new station at Maghull North.
The results of this calculation are shown in Table 3.6 below, with revenue having been assessed by taking
average revenue for each movement and multiplying by the appropriate demand figures. We have then
limited this figure to 56% of the total (i.e. demand at Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green minus car
drivers and car passengers, who have already switched stations within the station choice model)
Table 3.6: Impacts of adding the call at Maghull North on through passengers
Demand Revenue (2010 prices)
Impact of 2 minute journey time increase -37,900
Source: Mott MacDonald
Using this methodology suggests that 37,900 single journeys in 2018 will be lost from the rail network, with
an associated revenue decrease of . The flows showing the largest demand and revenue changes
are from Ormskirk to Maghull, Old Roan, Aintree and Liverpool.
3.2.7 Induced Demand at Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green
As part of this assessment we have assumed that demand which abstracts from the stations at Ormskirk,
Aughton Park and Town Green allows additional passengers to use the car parks at these stations. We
have estimated the number of car parking spaces which are ‘vacated’ at the stations by passengers who
abstract to Maghull North, and multiplied this by the car park turnover rate of 1.49. We have also assumed
a car occupancy rate of 2.12 for these trips. We have applied off-peak revenue to these journeys as it is
assumed that all journeys would be made in the off-peak period.
The results are shown in Table 3.7 below.
Table 3.7: Forecast induced demand at Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green in 2018
Demand Revenue
Ormskirk 10,800
Aughton Park 1,300
Town Green 41,000
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Demand Revenue
TOTAL 53,100
Source: Mott MacDonald
3.2.8 Impacts on Crowding
Reference has been made to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) to investigate the
impact of on-train crowding. This uses the method detailed in PDFH B6.4.2 to identify crowding over the
course of a typical day. This assumes that train load factors (demand divided by available seats) are
distributed throughout the day using a GAMMA distribution. Demand figures, seat numbers and the
maximum observed load factor are input into the calculation which outputs the level of demand which is
likely to be lost from on-train crowding.
Liverpool-bound demand figures have been taken for the Walton to Kirkdale section of the Ormskirk
service from the Long Term Rail Strategy matrices using MOIRA which have then been added to the
Maghull North demand forecasts. This is assumed to be the busiest section of Liverpool-bound services
from Ormskirk, whilst deliberately excluding the sections of route shared with the Kirkby and Southport
services in order to simplify the calculation.
The crowding calculations have been undertaken for both 2018, the opening year, and 2036, the forecast
year. This suggests that, with the addition of Maghull North, there will be no demand response to on-train
crowding.
3.3 Methodology
3.3.1 Assumptions
The business case methodology has followed the guidance outlined in the Government’s web-based
transport appraisal guidance (WebTAG) for railway investment business cases, primarily contained within
TAG Units A1.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis and A5.3 Rail Appraisal. This has led to the following assumptions
being applied:
Base forecast year: 2012
Scheme opening year: 2018 (May)
Demand growth cap: 2036 (20 years from current year)
Appraisal period: 60 years
Price base: 2010 market prices
Discounting: 3.5% for 30 years (to 2046), then 3.0% thereafter
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We have also used a ‘ramp-up’ factor for demand, revenue and benefit calculations, based upon evidence
contained in the rail industry Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) in Table B12.1 of
PDFHv5.1. This assumes that not all demand, revenue and benefit will accrue in the opening year of the
scheme, taking into account lag effects, with people changing their behaviour over a number of years.
For the purposes of the appraisal we have assumed the following:
Year 1, end of 2018 – 11.3% of demand/revenue/benefits realised in opening year;
Year 2, end of 2019 – 70.0% of demand/revenue/benefits realised;
Year 3, end of 2020 – 85.0% of demand/revenue/benefits realised;
Year 4, end of 2021 – 95.0% of demand/revenue/benefits realised;
Thereafter – 100% of demand/revenue/benefits realised.
This follows the advice contained in Table B12.1 of PDFH5 regarding demand lags and the build-up of
demand for major new services. This assumes an opening date of December 2017, and we have
assumed that the end of the 2017 financial year will therefore have accrued one quarter’s worth of
demand.
For through travellers, the same advice has been followed but this time relating to deteriorations in
generalised journey times. The resulting demand lags are:
Year 1, end of 2018 – 15.9% of demand/revenue/benefits realised in opening year;
Year 2, end of 2019 – 88.4% of demand/revenue/benefits realised;
Year 3, end of 2020 – 97.1% of demand/revenue/benefits realised; and
Year 4, end of 2021 and thereafter – 100% of demand/revenue/benefits realised.
Future year forecasts have been calculated by taking the 2012 base year demand forecasts and applying
the relevant underlying growth factors using elasticities specified in PDFH, as shown in Table 3.8 below.
Table 3.8: Data sources and elasticities used in growth forecasts
Data Source Elasticity Source
Population TEMPRO 6.2 PDFH5 Table B1.5
Employment TEMPRO 6.2 PDFH5 Table B1.5
GDP per Capita TAG Data Book Annual Parameters (Dec. 2015) PDFH5 Table B1.5
Rail Fares RPI+0% per annum PDFH4 Table 3.4
Car Ownership TEMPRO 6.2 PDFH5 Table B2.5
Car Fuel Prices TAG Data Book M4.2.2 (December 2015) PDFH5 Table B2.5
Car Journey Times TAG Data Book M4.2.3 (December 2015) PDFH5 Table B2.5
Bus Fares RPI+1% per annum (assumption) PDFH5 Table B2.5
Bus Journey Times TAG Data Book M4.2.3 (December 2015) PDFH5 Table B2.5
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Source: Mott MacDonald
Car ownership and population and employment statistics (taken from planning data) have been sourced
from the LEP TEMPRO v6.2, based on a study area incorporating the zones of Maghull/Lydiate, rural
(Sefton), Skelmersdale, Ormskirk and rural (West Lancashire) as a representation of the Maghull North
catchment area. TEMPRO data has been extracted for the 2011-2041 period, whilst GDP per capita and
car fuel price statistics have been sourced from the TAG data book (Annual Parameters and Tables A1.3.7
and A1.3.9). Note that in accordance with TAG Unit M4 (paragraph 8.3.3) real percentage GDP growth
has been reduced by 0.2% each year to account for switching between the RPI and CPI measures of
inflation within the GDP forecasts.
The resulting year-on-year changes raised to the relevant elasticities have been combined to create annual
local growth forecasts for 2017, the assumed opening year, and each year until 2076 to allow for a 60-year
appraisal period. Demand growth is capped in 2036, 20 years beyond the current year for all growth
factors in accordance with guidance contained within TAG Unit A5.3.
Rail fares are assumed to rise at the rate of inflation (measured by the Retail Price Index, RPI) for 20 years
from now, in line with fares policy agreed in the Merseyrail concession agreement8. After this no further
changes are assumed as specified in TAG Unit A5.3. Rail fare increases have been converted to real
terms increases using the GDP deflator specified in the TAG databook.
Revenues per passenger have been calculated using current ticket prices to Liverpool from the relevant
stations (i.e. Ormskirk, Aughton Park, Town Green, Maghull, Old Roan and Aintree). These have been
deflated to 2010 prices so as to be in the correct price base for input into the economic assessment. For
Maghull North we have assumed revenue per journey is higher than that for Maghull.
Revenue growth is based on the current fares policy for Merseyrail, which specifies RPI+0% growth per
annum. Revenues have been converted to real terms prices using the GDP deflator in the TAG databook.
In line with guidance in TAG Unit A5.3 revenue increase uses the same cap year as for demand.
3.3.2 User Benefits
User benefits take the form of time savings. These are relatively simple to calculate and involve a
comparison of the ‘before’ and ‘after’ scenarios to show the gain for each relevant origin-destination pair.
An adjustment is then applied such that all existing rail passengers who switch to the new station are
assumed to enjoy the full benefit of that time saving, whilst new passengers attracted to the railway as a
result of the new station are assumed to enjoy half of the total number of minutes saved9.
8 http://www.merseyrail.org/seasonal/rpi-announcement-merseyrail-fares.aspx
9 Those who would not otherwise have travelled are assumed to enjoy half of the benefit – this convention is known as the ‘rule of a half’
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Standard monetary values for different journey purposes (detailed in TAG data book A1.3.1) are then
applied for each year to convert the total number of minutes saved into a financial value according to the
purpose of the journeys concerned. Values of time are also assumed to grow in line with forecasts
included in the TAG data book A1.3.2 (dated December 2015).
For Maghull North we have assessed the benefits to the following user groups:
Drive-up demand, which is either new to rail or abstracted from adjacent stations;
Walk-up demand which is new to rail;
Walk-up demand which is abstracted from Maghull; and
Bus demand which is abstracted from Maghull.
3.3.3 Non-user Benefits
Non-user benefits come under two main categories; time savings to road users as a result of road
decongestion (itself a result of some road traffic diverting to rail), and reductions in the social costs of car
use – again as a result of road traffic diverting to rail. These are referred to as Marginal External
Congestion (MEC) costs, and the following elements have been counted according to TAG valuations
contained in the TAG data book A5.4:
Congestion;
Road accidents;
Greenhouse gas emissions;
Local air quality;
Road traffic noise; and
Road infrastructure repairs.
External costs of car use resulting from new demand at Maghull North have been applied, with net
decongestion benefits and indirect tax costs calculated as the net change in vehicle kilometres. We have
also considered the impacts of increased vehicle kilometres resulting from the loss of demand of through
travellers. The resulting change in vehicle kilometres is shown in Table 3.9 below.
Table 3.9: Change in vehicle kilometres as a result of the scheme - Year 1
Annual Distance
(kilometres)
New car driver demand -356,100
New car passenger demand -263,300
Abstracted car demand 7,900
New walk-up demand -324,100
New demand from future developments -
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Annual Distance
(kilometres)
Abstracted walk-up demand -
Abstracted bus demand -
Impacts on through travellers 137,600
Impacts from induced demand -264,500
Total Impact -1,062,500
Source: Mott MacDonald
This assumes that 44% of new users to rail formerly drove from their origin to destination, but now drive
from their origin to Maghull North station. This guidance is contained within Appendix C of TAG Unit A5.4
Marginal External Costs. This figure has been used to forecast the change in trip numbers rather than a
change in train kilometres.
For through travellers it has been assumed that 26% of demand is lost to rail transfers to car drivers, again
using guidance in TAG Unit A5.4. This figure is slightly different to that above as the forecasting is a
change in train kilometres. Using outputs from MOIRA the total end-to-end journey distance has been
calculated for each movement to calculate annual vehicle kilometre changes.
For induced demand we have assumed that all car driver trips were previously to / from Liverpool City
Centre
The change in vehicle-km is then used to calculate the total benefit of the marginal economic costs. This
uses pence per vehicle-km which are contained in A5.4.2 of the TAG databook (December 2015). Pence
per vehicle-km are reported for several road types, so an assessment has been made of the type of roads
that are likely to see a change in vehicle-km. It has been assumed that:
Journeys abstracting from local stations to Maghull North are on “other roads, inner and outer
conurbations”;
Journeys between the Maghull area and Liverpool are on “‘A’ roads, inner and outer conurbations” for
the 11.6km between Switch Island and Liverpool, and on “other roads, inner and outer conurbations”
for the remainder; and
Journeys which are displaced from rail are assumed to be on “‘A’ roads, inner and outer conurbations”
for the 11.6km between Switch Island and Liverpool, and on “average” roads for the remainder.
Applying the monetary values from the TAG databook allows us to calculate monetary savings for the
seven elements of Marginal External Costs.
3.3.4 Exclusions
We have excluded demand responses resulting from any changes in rolling stock in the future from the
benefit calculation.
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3.3.5 Summary
A summary of the various sources of the costs and benefits of the scheme are shown in Figure 3.2.
Figure 3.2: Sources of benefits of the scheme
Source: Mott MacDonald
3.4 Appraisal Results
From the above benefit and cost data for the scheme, the monetary values resulting have been reduced to
a common basis (2010 prices), costs have been converted from factor prices to market prices, and
discounted for the 60-year appraisal to 2010 values.
3.4.1 Transport Economic Efficiency
The appraisal shows that the journey time benefits will accrue both from new to rail demand and also
demand abstracted from nearby stations.
In line with guidance contained within TAG Unit A5.3 we have included new revenue in the Transport
Economic Efficiency (TEE) table; Unit A5.3 states that extra revenue accrues to private sector providers,
which is negated by a change in the revenue transfer line. We have also included the operating cost
changes and developer contributions within the TEE table.
The completed TEE table is included in Appendix D. The overall Present Value of Benefits (PVB)
contributed by TEE is £13.800 million (2010 prices, discounted to 2010 prices).
Journey Time Savings Marginal Economic CostsIncreased Revenue
• New Trips
• Abstracted Trips
• Development Trips
• Through traveller impacts
(negative impact)
• Induced demand
• New drive-up trips
• New walk-up trips
• Development trips
• Through traveller impacts
(negative impact)
• Induced demand
• New trips
• Abstracted trips
• Through travellers
(negative impact)
• Induced demand
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3.4.2 Public Accounts
The impact on public accounts is a cost to the broad transport budget of £7.616 million (2010 prices,
discounted to 2010 prices). In this case the increased revenue is seen as a revenue transfer in the Public
Accounts table. Developer contributions towards the scheme and an increase in net revenue (as a change
in grant/subsidy) are also reflected in the public accounts. These two elements are represented as
negative numbers, and have the effect of reducing costs to Local Government Funding.
As a result of marginal economic costs and reductions in the use of car there is a smalll loss of £0.855
million (2010 prices, discounted to 2010) in Indirect Tax Revenues for Central Government, which is
represented as a cost to Central Government. There are also minor benefits to Local Government
resulting from reduced maintenance on local roads as a result of mode shift from road to rail.
The completed Public Accounts table is shown in Appendix E.
A comparison between discounted revenue and discounted operating costs is shown in Table 3.10 below.
This refers to net revenue – i.e. new to rail revenue as well as the loss of revenue due to increased travel
time for through-trips along the railway line.
Table 3.10: Comparison between operating costs and net revenue – revenue divided by operating costs
Core Scenario
2018 (opening year) 0.08
2019 0.49
2020 0.61
2021 1.49
2036 (demand cap) 1.64
2076 (end of appraisal) 1.08
For full 60-year appraisal period 1.33
Subsidy change over 60 years
(2010 market prices, discounted to 2010)
Source: Mott MacDonald
This shows that in the core scenario revenue covers the operating costs from the fourth year of the
scheme; over the course of the 60-year appraisal period revenue exceeds operating costs by 30% and
generates a revenue surplus of .
3.5 Social and Distributional Impacts
The social and distributional impacts of a scheme are assessed using guidance contained within TAG
Units A4.1 Social Impact Appraisal and A4.2 Distributional Impact Appraisal. The following sections
present the results of the work undertaken on these elements of the appraisal.
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3.5.1 Social Impacts
The assessment of the social impacts of a scheme is covered by guidance within TAG Unit 4.1. This
outlines the requirements for a social impact appraisal which covers the human experience of the transport
system and its impact on social factors. This is additional to those impacts considered within the economic
and environmental impact areas of TAG. Each social impact is assessed as part of the appraisal and the
assessment is included in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST).
The eight social impacts are:
Accidents;
Physical Activity;
Security;
Severance;
Journey Quality;
Option and Non-use Values;
Accessibility; and
Personal Affordability.
The methods prescribed in WebTAG Unit 4.1 have been utilised to determine any beneficial or adverse
impacts of the schemes preferred option. The assessments are mainly based on the analysis of qualitative
data as only a small amount of quantifiable data is available.
A number of the impacts in this social study are further assessed within the distributional impact appraisal
in accordance with WebTAG Unit 4.2. The social impact assessment looks at impacts on the whole
population within the identified impact areas, whilst the distributional impact appraisal looks at the impacts
on vulnerable population groups.
The appraisal has assigned an assessment score on a seven point scale for each impact area. A
summary of the appraisal is shown in Table 3.11 below. Full details of the appraisal are given in Appendix
F.
Table 3.11: Social impacts of the scheme
Impact Area Score
Accidents Slight Beneficial
Physical Activity Neutral
Security Neutral
Severance Moderate Beneficial
Journey Quality Moderate Beneficial
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Impact Area Score
Option and Non-use Values Large Beneficial
Accessibility Moderate Beneficial
Personal Affordability Neutral
Source: Mott MacDonald
It is considered that Maghull North station will have the greatest impact on option and non-use values due
to the high number of households within the catchment area. Although this is a difficult area to quantify, it is
expected that the large number of residents now living in the catchment area of this station will value the
travel option greatly. The creation of the new railway station will provide improved access to the public
transport network for residents of northern Maghull. Access to Liverpool city centre will improve for
commuters who would look to use the station as a park and ride facility. At present, these commuters are
deterred from using the existing Maghull station as a park and ride facility due to the car park operating at
capacity and uncertainty over the availability of parking spaces.
The social impact appraisal has found that Maghull North will deliver a broadly positive benefit. At present,
no adverse impacts are expected to result from the scheme.
3.5.2 Distributional Impacts
Distributional impacts consider the variance of the scheme’s impact across different social groups. Both
beneficial and / or adverse distributional impacts of the proposed interventions have been considered, and
social groups likely to be affected have also been identified. These indicators include the following:
User Benefits;
Noise:
Air Quality;
Accidents;
Security;
Severance;
Accessibility; and
Personal Affordability.
A distributional impact appraisal encompasses a number of stages. Step 1 consists of an initial screening
process which examines the eight impacts and determines whether they need to be appraised further.
Step 2A confirms the impact area extent for when the impacts are mapped using GIS software. Step 2B
identifies social groups and 2C identifies related amenities in the impact areas. Finally, Step 3 appraises
the results and provides an assessment of the impacts of the intervention.
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The screening process considers the areas where the transport intervention might have negative or
positive impacts on specific social groups. These groups include: children, older people, people with a
limiting long term illness (LLTI), Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) communities, people without access to a
car, and people on low incomes. These are further explained in Table 1.1 from TAG Unit 4.2, which
highlights the groups considered for each impact.
This appraisal has been undertaken by giving consideration to the social effects (both beneficial and
adverse) of the proposed scheme, against the eight distributional impacts in TAG Unit 4.2. The effects of
the scheme have been identified using a seven-point scale running from large adverse to large beneficial
(including neutral, moderate and slight impacts.
A summary of the assessment scores produced as part of this appraisal are included in Table 3.12, with
the full Distributional Impact Appraisal included as Appendix G for completeness.
Table 3.12: Summary of the Distributional Impacts of the scheme
Score
User Benefits Moderate Beneficial
Noise Neutral (scoped out)
Air Quality Moderate Adverse
Accidents Moderate Beneficial
Security Neutral (scoped out)
Severance Moderate Beneficial
Accessibility Moderate Beneficial
Personal Affordability Neutral (scoped out)
Source: Mott MacDonald
The distributional impact appraisal has found that the scheme will deliver broadly positive benefits.
3.6 Environmental Impacts
As part of the Outline Business Case a preliminary environmental appraisal was undertaken in December
2014 comprising of two sections:
Section A) scoping exercise that details the proposed environmental appraisal and environmental
baseline; and
Section B) preliminary Appraisal Summary Table (AST).
This environmental appraisal, which forms a part of the Full Business Case, is informed by the preliminary
AST and aims to update the table to provide a detailed environmental assessment for each of the eight
topics. The full Environmental Impact Appraisal document is included as Appendix H, whilst the following
section provides a summary of the appraisal.
The following topics have been considered within the appraisal:
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Noise – including all aspects of ambient noise and noise from transportation and traffic as well as other
related infrastructure;
Air Quality (regional and local) – including all emission and pollution to air from vehicles;
Greenhouse Gases – relating to the impacts of the transport scheme on greenhouse gas emissions,
including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and ozone, whether they are increased or decreased;
Townscape or Landscape – referring to the physical and social characteristics of the urban or rural
environment and the way in which these characteristics are perceived;
Historic Environment – including historical and cultural buildings, assets and archaeological sites and
areas such as parks, gardens, and public spaces;
Biodiversity – including earth heritage (geological) interests, flora and fauna; and
Water Environment – relating to all aspects of the water environment, including groundwater and
surface water and aquatic ecology.
The effects of the scheme have been appraised using a seven-point scale in accordance with TAG criteria.
This analysis serves as a high-level environmental appraisal to understand the potential impacts of the
scheme on the environment. The environmental appraisal is summarised in Table 3.13 below.
Table 3.13: Environmental Appraisal Summary
Environmental Impact Summary of Impacts Qualitative Monetary (£, NPV)
Seven-point Scale
Noise
Assuming appropriate noise mitigation measures are put into place, it is not anticipated that there will be any significant impacts of the scheme on noise.
Neutral £64,630 0
Air Quality (Local)
The overall impact of the scheme on local air quality is anticipated to be slight adverse and therefore, not significant.
Slight adverse £407 -
Air Quality (Regional)
There is not expected to be a significant change to emissions of regional air pollutants as a result of the scheme. The overall impact of the scheme on regional air quality is anticipated to be slight adverse and therefore not significant.
Slight adverse n/a -
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Environmental Impact Summary of Impacts Qualitative Monetary (£, NPV)
Seven-point Scale
Greenhouse Gases
The scheme will have a beneficial effect on greenhouse gas emissions.
Due to the availability of data it was not possible to compare the magnitude of the change in greenhouse gas emissions with the local authority baseline.
Taking vehicle-km as an indicator of energy consumption (directly linked to greenhouse gas emissions), the magnitude of the change is expected to be of the order of 0.01% when compared to the local authority baseline.
Change in non-traded carbon over 60 years: unknown
Change in traded carbon over 60 years: unknown
£198,273
En
viron
men
tal C
ap
ita
l A
ppro
ach
Landscape
Permanent loss of mature vegetation within railway corridor, construction and operation of a new railway building and related infrastructure, construction of a new car park and operation of a new station and car park are anticipated to have a moderate adverse impact on landscape.
Moderate Adverse
n/a --
Townscape Scoped out in favour of a landscape assessment
Historic Environment Installation of new infrastructure, affecting buried archaeological remains
Slight Adverse n/a -
Biodiversity
Potential impact to breeding birds, which can be mitigated if construction is undertaken outside of the nesting season (March-August)
Neutral n/a 0
Water Environment
None identified providing suitable mitigation is incorporated into the design of the scheme
Neutral n/a 0
Note: All monetary values are presented in 2010 prices, discounted to 2010
Source: Mott MacDonald
3.7 Wider Economic Impacts
The Wider Economic Impact assessment has been completed using Mott MacDonald’s Transparent
Economic Assessment Model (TEAM), which is a versatile tool designed to calculate the economic impact
of proposed infrastructure interventions and policy measures. It has been designed by experts in
economics, economic development and regeneration and is in-line with HM Treasury Green Book
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principles and Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) additionality guidelines. The tool measures the
potential stimulus to economic activity from interventions by investigating the consequential employment
salary, Gross Value Added (GVA) and investment benefits that would otherwise not have arisen.
The function of the TEAM model used in this element of work is illustrated in Figure 3.3 below, with further
details on the inputs and assumptions used in the assessment provided in Appendix I.
Figure 3.3: Transparent Economic Assessment Model (TEAM) used for wider economic impact assessment
Source: Mott MacDonald
Future land uses at Maghull relate to the development of the sites listed in the Sefton Local Plan. Land
within Maghull through the development of allocated sites (excluding safeguarded land for future
development) has the potential to deliver up to 2,100 dwellings and 20 ha of employment land. This is
summarised in Table 3.14 below.
Table 3.14: Development land in Maghull contained in the Sefton Local Plan
Site size
(hectares) Number of dwellings
Employment land (net hectares)
MN2.27 Land at Turnbridge Lane, Maghull 1.6 40 -
MN2.28 Land north of Kenyon Lane, Lydiate 9.7 295 -
MN2.29 Former prison site, Park Lane, Maghull 13.6 370 -
MN2.46 Land east of Maghull 86 1,400 20ha business park
B1, B2 and B8 land use
TOTAL 110.9 2,105 20
Source: Sefton Local Plan
The potential economic benefits of the development site have been calculated as follows:
Input of key land use details into TEAM;
Calculation of the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts through feeding the proposed land
uses by size through TEAM; and
Adjusting the economic impact at a gross level to a net level throughout the analysis. This adjusts the
gross impacts to account for additionality.
The outputs from TEAM suggest that:
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Land east of Maghull will deliver an additional 1,120 net additional jobs and £61.6 million of net GVA
per annum; and
Housing construction will deliver 58 net additional jobs, a further 17 jobs through multiplier effects and
£2.9 million of net GVA per annum.
The assessment is concerned with understanding the level of economic benefit which can be attributed to
the station at Maghull North. The station is directly related to the economic benefits given that it will
improve public transport accessibility and support sustainable housing and employment benefit. It is also
noted that the Sefton Local Plan places limits on the level of development to the east of Maghull prior to
construction of the station.
Considering the issues above, it has been assumed that 20% of the net annual direct, indirect and induced
benefits come from the development of the station at Maghull North. The annual net additional benefits
associated with the station are summarised in Table 3.15 below.
Table 3.15: Wider Economic Impacts attributable to Maghull North
Jobs GVA per annum
Employment land impacts – land east of Maghull
Gross Direct Impacts 2,378 £140.8 million
Net Additional Impacts 1,217 £65.6 million
Growth Attributable to Maghull North 243 £13.1 million
Housing land impacts – from construction period
Gross Direct Impacts 150 £5.7 million
Net Additional Impacts 75 £2.9 million
Growth Attributable to Maghull North 15 £0.6 million
Total Growth Attributable to Maghull North 259 £13.7 million
Source: Mott MacDonald
The overall net economic benefits to Sefton, on an annual basis, which are directly attributable to the
opening of Maghull North railway station, are 259 jobs and £13.7 million of GVA.
3.8 Appraisal Summary Table
The full Appraisal Summary Table is included in Appendix J.
3.9 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
The Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table is shown in Appendix K. Table 3.16
summarises the various costs and benefits of the scheme.
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Table 3.16: Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits for Maghull North
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits £, discounted to 2010 prices,
in 2010 market prices
Noise £75,114
Local Air Quality £150
Greenhouse Gases £229,881
Journey Quality -
Physical Activity -
Accidents £1,126,844
Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (commuting) £8,487,107
Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (other) £6,085,126
Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers -£771,792
Wider Public Finances (indirect taxation benefits) -£855,843
PRESENT VALUE OF BENEFITS (PVB) £14,376,586
Broad Transport Budget £7,616,655
PRESENT VALUE OF COSTS (PVC) £7,616,655
Overall Impacts
NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) £6,759,930
BENEFIT TO COST RATIO (BCR) 1.89
This shows a present value of cost of the scheme of £7.819 million against a present value of benefits of
£12.823 million having allowed for the impacts of indirect taxation on the economy and marginal economic
costs of noise, air quality, greenhouse gases and accidents. Overall this gives a Benefit to Cost Ratio
(BCR) of 1.89.
3.10 Value for Money Statement
The Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) can be classified into one of five ‘bands’ detailed in the Government’s
Value for Money (VfM) guidance10. These are:
Poor VfM if BCR is below 1.0;
Low VfM if BCR is between 1.0 and 1.5;
Medium VfM if BCR is between 1.5 and 2.0;
High VfM if BCR is between 2.0 and 4.0; and
Very High VfM if BCR is greater than 4.0.
10 Value for Money Assessment: Advice Note for Local Transport Decision Makers, Department for Transport, December 2013
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As described above, the benefit to cost ratio is calculated as 1.89, and this represents medium value for
money. It is noted that the core scenario uses TEMPRO growth forecasts, and these have historically
underestimated population growth on Merseyside. In response to this we have undertaken a sensitivity
test using population and employment forecasts developed for input into the recently published Liverpool
City Region long term rail strategy, which are considered to more accurate.
3.11 Sensitivity Tests – Alternative Growth Forecasts
Sensitivity tests have been undertaken to show the likely impacts on the benefits of the scheme. These
are:
Sensitivity Test 1 – TEMPRO growth forecasts with 20 year growth cap;
Sensitivity Test 2 – TEMPRO growth forecasts with a 10 year growth cap; and
Sensitivity Test 3 – TEMPRO growth forecasts with a 30 year growth cap.
The first test presents the results using TEMPRO compared to the Core Scenario using the LEP forecast
used in the Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy, which is considered by Merseytravel to better
represent the growth forecast for Merseyside compared to TEMPRO.
Sensitivity Tests 2 and 3 are specified in TAG. TAG Unit A5.3 Rail Appraisal specifies that demand should
be capped after 20 years from the current year and this has been included in the core scenario. It also
specified that sensitivity tests with demand caps of 10 and 30 years should be undertaken.
It should be noted that the LEP forecast provides annual data to 2030 and that for subsequent years (i.e.
2030 to 2036) information has been extrapolated using the 2012-30 annual average rate of increase. This
is necessary so as to produce a comparative demand cap with the TEMPRO scenario (i.e. 20 years after
current year) and so that a demand decrease isn’t seen between 2030 and 2036 (this would be the case if
demand was being driven by prices and car ownership alone).
A direct comparison of the scenarios is shown in Table 3.17 below.
Table 3.17: Comparison of costs and benefits with the Core Scenario
Core Scenario
LEP growth 20 year cap
TEMPRO growth 20 year cap
TEMPRO growth 10 year cap
TEMPRO growth 30 year cap
PV Benefits £14.377m £11.467m
£10.892m
£12.234m
PV Costs £7.617m £8.830m
£9.798m
£8,299m
Net Present Value £6.759m £2.637m
£1.094m
£3.935m
Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.89 1.30 1.11 1.47
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Core Scenario
LEP growth 20 year cap
TEMPRO growth 20 year cap
TEMPRO growth 10 year cap
TEMPRO growth 30 year cap
Prices are discounted to 2010 and presented in 2010 market prices
3.12 Capital Costs
Network Rail have produced a Cost Estimate for the proposed station at Maghull North to GRIP 3 level.
Network Rail state that they have undertaken efforts to ensure that their estimate at this stage represents
best value for money, as such it represents a reduction on costs previously advised. Network Rail has
been asked for a revised financial profile now that the Cost Estimate has been released. This will be
aligned with the baseline schedule once received.
A Scheme cost of (2010 prices) has been applied in the appraisal. This is calculated as
follows:
A total cost of £13,000,000 as advised by Merseytravel (2017 prices). This comprises Network Rail’s
cost estimate of and the additional cost of landscaping, drainage and other items advised
by Merseytravel. The following cost items from Network Rail’s Cost Estimate were excluded:-
– risk element (2017 prices).
– risk fund (2017 prices).
This provides a sub-total cost of .
Costs have been adjusted for risk and optimism bias. This follows the advice contained within TAG Unit
A5.3 Rail Appraisal which suggests that no Quantified Risk Assessment contingency is required at GRIP
Stage 3, but optimism bias should be applied at 40% of the capital cost and 1% per annum for the
operating costs. In order to be consistent with this guidance we have also subtracted the risk elements
which are included in the construction costs sourced from Network Rail.
Optimism bias of 40% was applied to the 2010 price equivalent of the sub-total, plus Network Rail’s risk
fund of (2010 prices).
The Cost Estimate will be revised to a “Target Cost” after the GRIP4 stage. The “Target Cost” is to be
delivered by February 2017. In the meantime a sensitivity test is shown if the 40% Optimism Bias was not
required.
Table 3.18: Comparison of costs and benefits – capital cost variations
Core Scenario Optimism Bias unutilised
PV Benefits £14.377 million £14.377 million
PV Costs £7.617 million £4.462 million
Net Present Value £6.760 million £9,914 million
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Core Scenario Optimism Bias unutilised
Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.89 3.22
Value for Money Medium High
Prices are discounted to 2010 and presented in 2010 market prices
This shows that the Scheme’s value for money would move into the high category in the event that
Optimism Bias was not required.
3.13 Sensitivity Tests – Fares Elasticities
TAG Unit M4 Forecasting and Uncertainty also specifies that fares elasticities, which are used in our
growth factor calculations, should be subject to sensitivity tests. Elasticities values are provided in the
Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) and TAG specifies that fares elasticities from PDFH
version 4 should be used in the core demand forecast. As a sensitivity test, elasticities from PDFH version
5 should be used. The results of this test are shown Table 3.19 below.
Table 3.19: Comparison of costs and benefits – fare elasticity variations
Core Scenario
Test 6
PDFH5 elasticity
Present Value of Benefits £14.377 million
£10.405 million
Present Value of Costs £7.617 million
£9.173 million
Net Present Value £6.760 million
£1.232 million
Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.89
1.13
Prices are discounted to 2010 and presented in 2010 market prices
The figures show the impacts of using the PDFH5 fares elasticity. This results in lower demand growth,
and correspondingly lower overall benefits.
3.14 Previous Analysis
The economic results presented above do not represent a direct comparison with the Outline Business
Case. There are a number of reasons for these changes, as discussed below.
The assumptions which have been used in the core scenario have been updated. In the Full Business
Case it has been assumed that ticket prices are higher than at Maghull, with 30% abstraction rates
for drive-up demand. The assessment of the impacts on through travellers is also more accurate in the
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Full Business Case, accounting for both lost revenue and impacts on congestion as a result of passengers
transferring to road.
In the Full Business Case guidance set out in TAG Unit A5.4 has also been taken into account relating to
revenue and fares growth. In addition, assumptions on the operating costs have also been updated, with
the staff element now subject to average earnings growth throughout the 60 year period. Due to the time
lapse, the demand cap year has been moved from 2035 to 2036, resulting in an additional years’ worth of
demand growth.
3.15 Conclusions
Demand forecasts have been developed for the scheme with reference to guidance contained within
the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) and the DfT’s web-based Transport Analysis
Guidance (TAG). Demand forecasts predict 369,300 journeys from Maghull North in 2017, with 55%
of these journeys new-to-rail and 45% of these journeys abstracted from nearby stations.
The economic appraisal forecasts that the scheme will deliver a Present Value of Benefits of £14.377
million. The Present Value of Costs is estimated to be £7.617 million. This suggests that the scheme
will produce a benefit to cost ratio of 1.89 which represents medium value for money.
Alternate growth forecast scenarios have been run using the TEMPRO forrecasts developed for the
City Region Long Term Rail Strategy produce higher benefits. This test suggests that the scheme
will produce a benefit to cost ratio of 1.89 which represents medium value for money.
Netting out the Optimism Bias shows that the scheme could potentially produce a benefit to cost ratio
of 3.22 which represents high value for money.
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4.1 Introduction
The Financial Case concentrates on the affordability of the proposal, its funding arrangements and
technical accounting issues. The Financial Case is discussed under the following headings:
Assumptions;
Base Costs;
Land Ownership and Costs;
Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA);
Optimism Bias;
Risk and Optimism Bias;
Scheme Costs Adjusted for Risk;
Preferred Funding Arrangements;
Alternative funding arrangements;
Assurance of Overspend; and
Conclusions.
This section of the report presents the funding sources and profiles of the scheme. In effect it sets out the
programme for the scheme.
4.2 Assumptions
Capital costs for the scheme have been developed by Network Rail and have been subject to a value
engineering exercise. Details of an estimate produced for the ‘core’ capital cost scenario at GRIP 3 stage
are included in Appendix M.
The operating costs have been derived from a number of sources. The Long Term Charge (LTC) has
been derived from Control Period 5 charges published on the Network Rail website. It has been assumed
that the LTC for Maghull North will be identical to that for Mitcham Eastfields, as recommended by
Merseyrail. This is a new station in the London area, which was opened in 2008 and is of a similar
specification to Maghull North, located on third-rail electrified track with footbridge and lift shafts.
Merseyrail have also provided input into the operating cost estimate. This input includes the costs of
staffing at the station. For staffing the station it has been assumed that four full-time members of staff will
be required to provide a service from first train to last train whilst also accounting for holiday and sickness
relief.
4 Financial Case
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For the purposes of this assessment it is assumed that the additional two minutes required to call at
Maghull North can be accommodated within future train diagrams and no additional units or on-train staff
will be required once new rolling stock with improved acceleration / deceleration performance is deployed.
For the first three years we have assumed that an additional unit will be required to operate services to
Maghull North. Merseyrail have confirmed that one unit can be found from operational spares – this unit
cost is therefore not included in the operating costs. We have include the staff cost associated with this,
which amounts to four drivers and four guards.
Additional operating costs which have been accounted for include:
Ticket machines;
Costs for utilities, including electricity and water;
Maintenance and minor improvement costs;
Security costs, including alarms; and
Costs associated with data links.
It is noted that these are high level costs, and will need to be refined as the project develops.
Also included in the ongoing operating costs is the Long Term Charge (LTC) levied by Network Rail. The
costs of the LTC over Control Period 5 (2014-2019) are published on the Network Rail website11. In order
to include these costs in the appraisal it has been assumed that the LTC for Maghull North will be the
same as for Mitcham Eastfields, as recommended by Merseyrail.
4.3 Base Costs
The current outline programme is funded according to a funding profile provided by Merseytravel, and this
shows that costs are profiled as follows:
2.39% of capital costs accrue in 2015/16;
6.63% of capital costs accrue in 2016/17; and
90.98% of capital costs accrue in 2017/18.
Developer contributions are assumed to accrue in 2016/17.
Table 4.1 below provides a breakdown of the costs showing the base costs and the two value engineering
options.
11 http://www.networkrail.co.uk/cp5-access-charges/cp5-long-term-charges-for-franchised-stations.xls?cd=1
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Table 4.1: Base capital costs for the scheme (2017 prices)
Base Cost
Scenario
Direct Construction Works
Indirect Construction Works
Design Team/Other
Risk
Inflation
Network Rail Fee Fund
Industry Risk Fund
TOC Costs
Total Cost to Customer
Source: Network Rail – presented in 2017 prices
This gives a total rounded base cost of .
Operating costs have been sourced from Network Rail and Merseyrail. A breakdown of the operating
costs is shown in Table 4.2 below.
Table 4.2: Base operating costs for the scheme (undiscounted, without risk and optimism bias) for first three years
£ per annum
Station Long Term Charge
Staff Cost – Train drivers
Staff Cost – Train guards
Staff Cost – Retail / Ticket Office
Ticket Machine
Ticket Vending Machine
Utilities, including electricity and water
Maintenance and Minor Improvements
BT Alarm / Monitor
Data Links
Security
Operating Cost
Source: Merseyrail, Merseytravel, Network Rail and Mott MacDonald – presented in 2014 prices
It is noted that the per annum applies for the first three years of the scheme. Once new rolling
stock is delivered additional train drivers and guards are no longer required, and the annual operating
costs falls to per annum.
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4.4 Land Ownership and Costs
The land on which the scheme is to be built is currently owned by the Homes and Community Agency
(HCA) and by Network Rail. The sites are illustrated in Figure 4.1 and Figure 4.2 below.
Figure 4.1: Land currently owned by HCA (brown line), and that earmarked for the station (blue hatching)
Source: Merseytravel
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Figure 4.2: Land owned by Network Rail (shaded green)
Source: Network Rail
The land will be transferred from HCA ownership to Merseytravel. The preferred option is for the freehold
for the station building and car park outside of the existing Network Rail boundary to be transferred to
Merseytravel with HCA’s interest in the site protected by covenant as appropriate. A contingency plan is
for Merseytravel to be granted the site on a long lease (of around 999 years).
Under either option, Merseytravel would transfer a small portion of the land to Network Rail in order to
allow access to the station and for direct rail and station maintenance. The main area of the land, forming
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the car park, would be leased to the Train Operating Company for operation. The lease would be
managed by Merseytravel who would protect any interests in the land.
A letter in support of the scheme from the HCA has been supplied, and this details their interest in the land
and reiterates their intention to supply financial support to the scheme. This is provided at Appendix B.
4.5 Quantified Risk Assessment
A Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) has been undertaken and the top three risk components are
summarised in Table 4.3.
Table 4.3: Quantified Risk Assessment
Key Risk Component Likelihood Impact on Cost Mitigation Measures
Uncertainty over the final operating costs of the scheme
40% High
Merseytravel in discussions with Merseyrail to finalise operating costs. Various alternative operating scenarios have been identified which could be progressed to minimise operating costs / increase passenger revenue in order for revenue to cover OPEX.
Failure to incorporate Maghull North into Merseyrail Electric Ltd.’s (MEL) contract
25% High
Early discussions with MEL to formalise staffing and operational matters are ongoing. Signed variation to the concession agreement will be required.
Failure to incorporate calls at Maghull North into existing timetable.
25% High
Initial work assumes two minutes (1.5 minutes plus 30 seconds dwell time) required in each direction to call at station. Merseytravel are liaising with MEL to resolve. There are two options: either re-casting the timetable or increasing the number of train units to adhere to existing timetable. Both options are stop-gaps until new rolling stock is rolled out on Merseyrail network.
Likelihood / impact on cost
High
Medium
Low
Source: Mott MacDonald
Of the top three risks, all have levels below 50% although the impact on cost if they occurred would be
high. Mitigation measures will continue to be developed and managed as the scheme progresses in order
to manage the likelihood of the risk occurring.
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The QRA uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which takes the probability based risk register as an input and
samples in a random fashion to produce a number of iterations, and the likely costs associated with them.
The QRA suggests that in 50% of cases (p=50) the costs associated with the risk will be .
A risk workshop for the scheme was held on 19th February 2015, attended by Merseytravel officers and
Mott MacDonald. This built on the QRA work undertaken as part of the Outline Business Case through
identifying further risks and the development of mitigation measures. Each risk in the register was
assigned to a Merseytravel officer to ‘track’; although many risks are owned and influenced by outside
parties (such as Network Rail and Merseyrail) it will be the officers’ responsibility to monitor the risk and
ensure that discussions are held with the relevant organisation and at the relevant level to minimise the
possibility of the risk occurring. It is noted that the risk register produced at the workshop has formed the
input into this QRA and will be treated as a ‘live’ document which can be updated as the project
development. The risk register is included in Appendix N.
4.6 Optimism Bias
Optimism bias is defined as the historic tendency to underestimate scheme costs. Further to this TAG Unit
A5.3 Rail Appraisal provides differing rates of optimism bias according to which stage of the Network Rail
GRIP process the scheme is at. The level of optimism bias applied decreases as the project progresses
towards completion.
The Maghull North project is currently at GRIP Stage 3. As such the capital costs would attract an
optimism bias of 40% of scheme costs in accordance with TAG. The optimism bias has been applied to
the capital costs with the exception of risk funds, promoter costs, PICOP and Schedule 4 payments.
In addition, optimism bias is also applied to operating costs. This is defined in TAG Unit A5.3 Rail
Appraisal as 1% per annum – i.e. in each year 1% is added to the costs, rather than adding 1% per annum
in cumulative fashion. Adding optimism bias to operating costs results in an annual cost of per
annum (2014 prices) for the first three years, and per annum (2014 prices) thereafter.
4.7 Scheme Costs for Appraisal
In order to include the costs for the economic appraisal further price conversions are required. This is
documented in TAG Unit A4.2 Scheme Costs and includes the following elements:
Real price increases are taken account of by looking at the comparative rates of inflation for general
costs and for construction costs. This assumes that general inflation rises at 2.5% per year, whereas
construction inflation rises at 5% per year. Inflation has been accounted for within the Network Rail
costs, so this step has not been applied;
Re-basing to 2010 – capital costs for the scheme have been provided in 2017, whilst operating costs
have been provided in 2014 prices. Both have been re-based to 2010 prices using the general inflation
deflator (we have used RPI from the TAG databook) to factor down to 2010 prices;
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Discounting to 2010 using a discount rate of 3.5% for 30 years and 3% thereafter; and
Conversion to market prices using an indirect taxation correction factor of 1.190.
This method has also been applied to the operating costs. It has been assumed that a quarter of the
annual cost will be accrued in 2017, as the station will open in December (so a quarter of a year’s cost will
be accrued). Staff-related operating costs are subject to real-terms annual earnings increases, and in line
with guidance contained in TAG Unit A5.3 are not capped, and continue to grow over the 60-year appraisal
period. Non-staff related operating costs are subject to increase at the rate of RPI (as published in the
TAG databook, December 2015), capped as per demand (i.e. costs remain constant after the demand cap
year).
4.8 Preferred Funding Arrangements
The major sources of funding for the scheme will be Department for Transport’s Devolved Majors Local
Growth Fund, Combined Authority LGF funding, Merseytravel funding and Section 106 developer
contributions from the developer of the Ashworth South site adjacent to the proposed station.
The table below provides a breakdown of the funding profile for the scheme.
Table 4.4: Sources of funding for the scheme
Expenditure % Total 2014/15 2015/16 To 21 Oct 2016
Remainder 16/17
Local Growth Fund 84% £6.200,000 £0 £0 £2,300,000 £3,900,000
Merseytravel 9% £690,000 £100,000 £490,000 £100,000 £0 Section 106 from
HCA 7% £480,000 £0 £0 £480,000 £0
Total £7,370,000 £100,000 £490,000 £2,880,000 £3,900,000 Additional
allocation required Combined
Authority LGF 90% £4,500,000 Merseytravel 10% £500,000
Total £12,370,000
Station cost £13,000,000
Sunk costs £633,000
Source: Merseytravel , undiscounted
Finance would be sourced from Major Scheme funding and any Section 106 contribution from the
developer of the adjacent Ashworth Hospital site. The Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) are now
owners of the Ashworth Hospital site, and they will make a developer contribution of £480,000 towards the
cost of the station.
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4.9 Alternative Funding Arrangements
In addition to the funding sources identified above, it is noted that within the Sefton Local Plan
development of site MN2.46, mixed use housing and employment site east of Maghull is specifically tied to
developer contributions both to Maghull North railway station and the improvements to M57 Junction 1.
Policy MN3 for the strategic site east of Maghull states the following:
“The development of this site will secure the following benefits, including through the use of planning
conditions, ‘Section 106’ or other legal agreements, and a phasing/implementation plan: a) A financial
contribution to secure the provision of the new Maghull North station and associated park and ride facility.”
The scale of the financial contribution to the station is unknown at this stage. It is, however, likely to
reduce the overall burden on the preferred funding arrangements identified above.
No other alternative funding arrangements have been identified at this stage.
4.10 Assurance of expenditure
Funds spent before October 2016 Combined Authority’s’ approval are classed as sunk costs. The
Combined Authority will be asked for funds going forward. Expenditure beyond that which is identified at
Target Cost stage (end of GRIP 4) will be for Merseytravel to fund as will any additional expenditure
resulting from constrcution stage.
4.11 Conclusions
Overall capital costs of the new station at Maghull North are estimated at £13 million (2017 prices),
which includes optimism bias where applied at a rate of 40%. Merseytravel will supply 9.4% of the
funding, with 6.5% from developer contributions and the remainder sought from the major schemes
fund. Operating costs are estimated at per annum (2014 prices, including optimism bias)
for the first three years of the scheme, and per annum (2014 prices, including optimism bias)
thereafter. This accounts for additional station staff costs, as well as long term charges, running and
maintenance costs of the station.
At this stage, optimism bias rather than the QRA estimate are included in the costs.
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5.1 Introduction
The Commercial Case provides evidence on the commercial viability of the proposal and the procurement
strategy that will be used to engage the market. It presents evidence on risk allocation and transfer,
contract timescales and implementation timescales as well as details on the capability and skills of the
team delivering the project and any personnel implications arising from the proposal. The Commercial
Case is discussed under the following headings:
Output Based Specification;
Procurement Method;
Programme Implications and Risk; and
Conclusions.
5.2 Output Based Specification
The principal proposal for Maghull North is to deliver the proposed station and associated facilities as a
single package with procurement via the rail industry and Network Rail in particular. However, the
efficiency for delivery and cost will be explored further with a view to achieving the most appropriate
solution. The alternative solution being explored is for the station project to be divided into two packages,
one delivered by the rail industry (station elements) and the other delivered by Merseytravel (parking
elements). In summary, the scheme outputs are:
Station elements
Two side platforms (one Liverpool-bound and one Ormskirk-bound) each capable of accommodating 2*
3-car units (platform length to be a minimum of 120m);
2* double-sided three line ‘Next Train Indicator’ CIS on gallows (one on each platform);
LED lighting to each platform, throughout the station, parking area and the station approach sections of
the station leases;
Raise and lower lighting columns throughout;
Long Line Public Address (LLPA) on both platforms and throughout station;
CCTV on each platform and throughout station;
2* Help Point (Information and Emergency) with signs (one on each platform);
2* Macemain Shelter or similar with seating (one on each platform);
Minimum of 12 seats (external) on each platform (minimum of 24 in total);
6* station nameplates on each platform (12 in total);
Sufficient way finding on each platform, giving equal prominence to stepped and step-free routes;
5 Commercial Case
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1* 16-person single door lift (180° turn) between platform and footbridge on each platform, to be
located at the Liverpool-end due to platform width (two in total);
Appropriate CCTV, communications and assistance associated with lift operation on each platform (two
in total);
Uncovered steps from each platform to the footbridge, with associated tactile paving, double handrails
in contrasting colour;
Uncovered footbridge between the two lift towers and adjacent steps from the platforms;
Uncovered footbridge span between Liverpool-bound lift tower and steps and exit from station building
to over sail the side of the cutting
One station building of simple design comprising the following:
– Power operated passenger doors with Passive Infrared Sensor (PIR) for hands-free operation
– Enclosed heated passenger waiting and seating area
– Single passenger ticket office window with raise and lower or multi-height counter
– Summary Customer Information Screen (CIS) in booking hall
– Enclosed adapted passenger toilet with associated door locking and security features and vandal
resistant / sustainable washing facilities
– Staff-side ticket office facilities as appropriate
– Back of house staff facilities, including cash room, mess room, toilet and other welfare facilities as
appropriate for the size of station
– Eco sustainable equipment and facilities as appropriate
Poster frames throughout the station to satisfy ATOC station zoning requirements for inward and
onward travel information, rail industry and other publicity;
Station welcome sign and totems;
Litter bins and associated welfare / pleasant environment facilities including potential for station
adoption group; and
Work with British Transport Police to ensure scheme achieves Secure Station accreditation.
Construction of the parking area
Staff parking and kiss-and-ride pick-up/drop-off area;
Free car park for 156 vehicles with sustainable drainage;
Compliant provision of blue-badge car parking bays;
Passive provision for two electric charging points to service four parking bays;
Motorcycle parking provision to an agreed level;
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Secure cycle parking cages / racks and freely available cycle parking racks;
Parking area signs to suit efficient operation of that area; and
Bus stops on public highway subject to agreement with Sefton Council.
5.3 Procurement Method
The methodology currently assumes that the station will be procured as a single package under the
management of Merseytravel. This will be delivered by Network Rail under their procurement rules.
However, in order to investigate cost savings, consideration is currently being given to split the project into
two packages. Various alternatives are being considered and this is developing through ongoing
discussions with Network Rail. Under this phasing of the project the first element (construction of the new
station) would be progressed under Network Rail procurement rules, whilst the second element (provision
of the parking area) would be progressed under Merseytravel procurement rules.
The preferred procurement method is presented assuming that the scheme is progressed as a single
package. However, an alternative procurement method is available using Merseytravel’s procurement
rules. At this stage the preferred approach is for Network Rail to deliver the whole scheme. If significant
cost savings can be identified, then splitting the scheme into more than one package may be an option.
5.3.1 Preferred Procurement Method
Network Rail is accountable for the operation, maintenance and renewal of railway assets. It has a
significant interest in any improvements to the network. There are certain services that only Network Rail
can supply – so called non-contestable services. These include protecting the railway network and its
operations, information provision, safety management, consents and access to the network. There are two
possible roles for Network Rail to take. These are:
Network Rail commissioned directly to deliver the scheme; and
Promoter to deliver the scheme with Network Rail offering an Asset Protection (ASPRO) role.
In the first scenario Network Rail works to developing a deliverable and standards-compliant design in
collaboration with the promoter. They then oversee construction prior to handing over the asset to the
selected operator. The Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) identifies that Network Rail will in many cases act
as the delivery agent, and it will take on risks that it is best placed to manage. These include the design
and construction risks.
The second scenario involves Network Rail working closely with the promoter to agree works in principle
before commencing on detailed design. Network Rail would approve plans in a two tiered process and
offer guidance on technical issues and interaction with other railway schemes in the locality. Under this
scenario any costs to Network Rail relating to asset protection are charged back to the developer through
mechanisms detailed in the ASPRO contract. Under this scenario the third party can seek prices from
suppliers for contestable services, which include design and delivery of the scheme.
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Network Rail have developed, and ORR have approved, four template contracts which are suitable for
project values of below £50 million. These are designed to “offer a fair balance of risk” between the
promoter (in this case Merseytravel) and Network Rail. The four types of contract are defined by the ORR
as follows:
Basic Services Agreement: simple agreements to cover pre-feasibility works to scope the scheme
and develop a business case;
Development Services Agreement: for development and design work undertaken by Network Rail on
behalf of the promoter;
Implementation Agreement: with Network Rail acting as construction manager, this is an agreement
for enhancement works on or about the controlled railway infrastructure to provide detailed design and
implementation of the promoter’s scheme with the contracting strategy agreed between Network Rail
and the promoter; and
Asset Protection Agreement: an agreement for promoter led woks on the controlled railway
infrastructure, where Network Rail facilitates the promoter’s enhancement scheme interface with the
operations, maintenance and renewals business.
The latter of these three contracts are relevant to the Maghull North project.
Discussions have taken place between Network Rail and Merseytravel regarding the option of adopting a
design and build approach to the scheme. This would provide optimum early engagement with the
specialist contractors and mitigate the limited scheme delivery timeframe. Merseytravel and Network Rail
intend to sign a Development Services Agreement and an Implementation Agreement will be signed at a
later date related to delivery of the works.
Network Rail has awarded nine framework agreements to a total of six different suppliers to cover
enhancements on the London North Western and East Midlands routes over the next five years. This
includes separate frameworks for railway engineering, civil engineering and buildings12. The fully open and
competitive framework was procured according to OJEU utility procurement rules. The construction of the
scheme will be undertaken by contractors appointed under the relevant framework. It is understood that
Network Rail’s contractor for the scheme will be Buckingham Group Contracting Ltd. The contracts have
been awarded as part of Network Rail’s new procurement and contracting strategy, which aims to improve
safety, cost-efficiency and delivery performance, and these contracts will be subject to key performance
indicators.
5.3.2 Alternative Procurement Method
As a rail scheme, the works relating to the new station are governed by Network Rail and their
procurement rules. As stated above, unless significant cost savings can be identified from packaging the
scheme, the preferred methodology is for Network Rail to deliver the whole scheme. However, there is
potential for the car park element of the scheme to be delivered by Merseytravel.
12 http://www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/News-Releases/Network-Rail-agrees-renewal-and-enhancement-contracts-in-a-1-6bn-framework-deal-2147.aspx
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Should this scheme phasing be pursued, then the Merseytravel Constitution dated March 2014 outlines the
procedures which must be followed as part of the procurement process. This specifies that, where
appropriate, services should make use of existing arrangements including:
In-house services;
Existing Framework Agreements;
Existing Select Lists or Register of Bus Operators; and
Established Corporate Contracts.
A formal risk assessment would be required prior to starting the procurement process, which would be
continually reviewed as the process progressed. This would involve consultation with the Head of
Procurement in order to identify where use could be made of the existing arrangements highlighted above.
An outline design would be undertaken using in-house expertise within Merseytravel. Consultants to
undertake detailed design would be appointed by Merseytravel by competitive ‘mini-competition’ tender via
the appropriate procurement framework. The implementation phase to appoint a contractor would again
be through a process of competitive tendering. The appointment of consultants and contractors would be
subject to Merseytravel’s approval process.
Within Merseytravel the Director of Resources and the Head of Legal and Democratic Services are
responsible for ensuring contacts accord with their Procurement Procedure Rules and Regulations. As
part of any contract, the following would be specified:
The works, goods or services to be undertaken;
Details of prices to be paid, including a statement of discounts or other reductions;
The period or times within which the contract is to be performed and, where appropriate, the amount of
liquidated damages that may otherwise become due; and
The conditions of contract which are applicable.
As part of the process the Head of Legal and Democratic Services would be consulted to establish whether
liquidated damages, performance bonds, or other performance security are appropriate to include in the
written contracts. Variations in the contract relating to the following are subject to approval from Head of
Service, Director of Resources and Head of Legal and Democratic Services:
Extensions of time;
Waiver and liquidated damages;
Cost increases;
Material variation of specification; and
Any contract termination.
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The consultant would be appointed using an ACE Conditions of Engagement Agreement 113, which is an
industry standard contract for appointing a designer where the client (Merseytravel) intends to engage
contractors for construction of the scheme. The Schedule of Services Part G14 will also apply. The brief
will be outlined in the contract, but the following requirements as contained in Part G will also apply,
requiring the designer to:
Advise on the limitation of site, including contamination;
Advise of any access limitations;
Advise on extent of public services and utilities, such as sewage, electricity and telecommunications’
Comment on any restrictions relating to the scheme design;
Prepare a desk study and if agree undertake a full site investigations; and
Obtain appropriate information from the client so as to undertake service specified in the contract.
The contractor would be appointed using a NEC3 Option B (measured contract), as recommended by the
Office of Government Commerce (OGC). This type of contract includes six possible payment
mechanisms, which transfer varying degree of risk to the contractor. Within the contract a range of
standard compensation events are specified, whilst performance incentives such as bonus for early
completion and damages for delay and poor performance can also be included.
The use of the NEC3 contract provides for a robust risk management process which ensures that
construction risks are raised at the earliest opportunity and dealt with expeditiously thus optimising key
project targets such as expenditure of project funds and impact of the project on the public. During the
contract formulation stage a thorough and detailed examination of risks are interpreted into a contract risk
register, which transfers the ownership of each risk to either the Employer or the Contractor on the basis of
which party is best placed to deal with the risk, should it arise.
5.3.3 Contract Management
For both the design and development phase of the work Merseytravel will enter into a Development
Services Agreement (DSA) with Network Rail utilising the ORR approved template with scheme specific
details (including services to be provided). Network Rail will identify and appoint, from their competitively
procured framework, the appropriate design team. The draft DSA was issued by Network Rail to
Merseytravel’s Executive in January 2014 for initial consideration and signing in due course.
As part of the contract to be signed by Network Rail and Merseytravel, a Development Programme will be
developed. This will include GRIP stage gate reviews for feasibility and design optioneering. As part of
the agreement both Network Rail and Merseytravel have identified representatives who can act on their
13 http://agreements.acenet.co.uk/Documents/Agreements/2b65295a_07fc_43a3_a3ad_e0f0570125e3.pdf
14 http://agreements.acenet.co.uk/Documents/Agreements/b0b93902_1601_4d2f_8fd3_24037221daeb.pdf
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behalf in relation to the agreement. Network Rail’s representative is named as Jackie Miller, and
Merseytravel’s representative is named as Mark Cleave.
Under the contract Network Rail will deliver approved single option designs for the station together with
refined costs and programme for completing the project at GRIP stages 4-8. To this end it is estimated
that the project will be completed to GRIP3 level by October 2015.
For the implementation phase of the work Merseytravel will enter into an Implementation Agreement with
Network Rail who will then identify the appropriate contractor from their competitively procured framework.
It is understood that Buckingham Group Contracting Ltd will be Network Rail’s contractors for the scheme,
under contracts that have been awarded as part of Network Rail’s new procurement and contracting
strategy.
Buckingham Group Contracting Ltd will be involved under the Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) process,
and they will be responsible for engaging the design team. Incentives are written into Buckingham’s
contract under the ECI process in order to deliver the outputs early and under budget.
Anticipated contract timescales and lengths are shown in Table 5.1 below.
Table 5.1: Contract timescales and lengths
Source: Network Rail
5.4 Programme Implications and Risk
5.4.1 Network Rail Risk Fund
Network Rail funds only cover costs and risks which are outlined at each strategic review. Its costs and
risks associated with third party funded schemes are not covered. Risk funds have been developed to pay
for these elements, as follows:
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Network Rail Fee Fund (NRFF): covers the potential liabilities arising from the template agreements;
and
Industry Risk Fund (IRF): covers low probability, high impact industry risks such as operational
emergencies on the network.
These funds are contributed through a percentage of scheme costs, which are defined within the template
agreements. As part of the Design Services Agreement, Network Rail will be liable for any additional costs
incurred by Merseytravel as a result of any delay or disruption to the Development Programme. Both of
these costs have been included in the capital cost element of the scheme.
5.4.2 Planning Risk
Discussions have been held with Sefton Council relating to the transfer of land from the HCA to
Merseytravel for construction of the car park and station, and the anticipated Section 106 developer
contribution. Sefton Council granted outline permission for housing on the adjacent land owned by HCA in
September 2014, and will be responsible for granting planning permission for the station and car park.
It is envisaged that the station will be classified as a major project by Sefton Council and that a planning
application for such a scheme typically takes 13 weeks for the planning authority to process. In order to
limit risk to programme slippage we have allowed up to 16 weeks in the programme between submission
and obtaining of planning permission. The proposed timescales are shown in Table 5.2 below.
Table 5.2: Dates for obtaining planning permission
Element Date
Submit planning application September 2016
Full planning permission received January 2017
Source: Merseytravel
Should planning permission not be granted in a timely manner, it has the potential to delay the subsequent
construction periods.
5.4.3 Programme Implication
The scheme will be built upon land within either Network Rail’s or Merseytravel’s ownership. Upon
completion of the works, sign-off / hand-back to Network Rail will take place. No liability for the provisions
of the rail related elements of the scheme will remain with Merseytravel following hand-back to Network
Rail.
The parts of the scheme on rail owned land will pass into the ownership of Network Rail. A process will
need to be followed to include the station within the Network Rail Regulatory Asset Base with revisions to
documentation as necessary. This will involve Network Rail as rail asset manager, Merseytravel as
Concession manager, and Merseyrail as Station Facility Owner.
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The station charge will reflect what is included in the station lease area and the assets contained within it.
The Annexes to the Station Lease will identify the maintenance, repair and renewal responsibilities
(Network Rail and Station Facility Owner) for the assets introduced and the bearer of associated costs.
All scheme related elements on Merseytravel owner land (the parking area) will remain in Merseytravel
ownership and will be leased to the Train Operating Company (Merseyrail) for operation and maintenance.
Light repair and maintenance liabilities would pass to Merseyrail. This would be undertaken under a sub-
lease from Merseytravel which would protect the various interests in the site through Merseytravel’s
management of the lease.
Before completion of the scheme a robust cleaning and heavy maintenance regime will have been
identified and agreed with Merseytravel’s Asset Management section. Upon completion of the scheme
Merseytravel’s internal client department and Asset Management department management will sign-off the
scheme. Heavy maintenance and repair responsibility will then pass to Asset Management, with
associated costs borne by Merseytravel.
5.5 Conclusions
The scheme will use Network Rail procurement methods, and Merseytravel are already in
discussions with Network Rail over adopting a design and build approach to the scheme. This will
initially use a Development Services Agreement between Merseytravel and Network Rail, leading on
to an Implementation Agreement in order to construct the scheme. Early discussions should help to
mitigate risk relating to the relatively tight programme.
Potential for cost savings are being investigated and consideration is currently being given to split the
project into two packages. Under this phasing of the project the construction of the new station would
be progressed under Network Rail procurement rules, whilst the provision of the parking area would
be progressed under Merseytravel procurement rules.
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6.1 Introduction
The Management Case assesses whether a project is deliverable. It tests the project planning,
governance structure, risk management, communications and stakeholder management, benefits
realisation and assurance (i.e. a Gateway Review). There should be a clear and agreed understanding of
what needs to be done, why, when and how, with measures in place to identify and manage any risks.
The Management Case sets out a plan to ensure that the benefits identified in the Economic Case are
realised and will include measures to assess and evaluate this.
The Management Case is discussed under the following headings:
Governance;
Assurance;
Delivery Programme;
Risk Management Strategy;
Communication and Stakeholder Management;
Monitoring and Evaluation; and
Conclusions.
6.2 Governance
6.2.1 Liverpool City Region Strategic Governance
An overview of the Liverpool City Region (LCR) strategic transport governance, including membership,
roles and responsibilities, is presented in Figure 6.1 and Table 6.1 below.
6 Management Case
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Figure 6.1: Liverpool City Region – Strategic Transport Governance
Source: Mott MacDonald
LCR Combined Authority
• LCR Local Authority Leaders• Elected Mayor of Liverpool• Chair of LCR LEP
Delivery Agents
• Local Authorities• Merseytravel• Other agencies
LCR LEP
LCR District Cabinets
LCR Transport Delivery Groups
• Officers from each of the LCR Local Authorities
• Merseytravel Officers• Partner representatives as appropriate
Transport Advisory Group (TAG)
• Senior Officers from each of the LCR Local Authorities
• LEP representative• DfT representative• Network Rail representative
Merseytravel Committee
• Elected Councillors from each of the LCR Local Authorities
Wider Stakeholder Group
• Public Transport operators• Highways Agency• Network Rail• Other Government Agencies• Businesses• Local interest groups• Public
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Table 6.1: Roles and Responsibilities in the Liverpool City Region
Role Responsibility
Liverpool City Region Combined Authority (LCR CA)
Combined Authority for Halton, Knowsley, Liverpool, Sefton, St Helens and Wirral
Strategic decision making for economic development, transport, strategic housing and employment and skills functions for the LCR
Merseytravel Committee
Combined Authority Committee leading on transport for the City Region. Six meetings held per year. Membership formed of elected Councillors.
Provide democratic leadership on strategic transport issues and advise the CA.
Transport Advisory Group (TAG)
Transport Advisory Group meets monthly, supporting the transport agenda at a senior officer level. Members include the Local Enterprise Partnership.
Provide technical advice and recommendations to the Merseytravel Committee.
Wider Stakeholder Group
The wider stakeholder group are a virtual group of key LCR transport stakeholders that LCR Officers and Councillors engage as appropriate.
Provide feedback to Merseytravel Committee, TAG and LCR Delivery Groups on transport policy and projects as appropriate.
LCR Delivery Groups
Various delivery groups are formed of representatives from Merseytravel and each LCR LA as well as partner organisations as appropriate.
Oversee the delivery of transport schemes and provide advice to delivery agents.
Delivery Agents LCR LAs and other Delivery Partners delivering transport schemes across the LCR.
Responsible for the delivery of any agreed transport schemes.
Source: Mott MacDonald
6.2.2 Merseytravel Governance
The proposed governance / delivery of the Maghull North scheme is presented in Figure 6.2 below.
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Figure 6.2: Merseytravel Scheme Delivery
Source: Merseytravel
The coordination and management of the scheme and sits with designated Rail Development Office for the
scheme, Mark Cleave. Design and development will be coordinated by Merseytravel.
As part of the development phase for the scheme a number of initial meetings have been held between
Merseytravel and Network Rail to structure the scheme and to establish the key requirements/objectives.
Merseytravel have completed a draft version of the Client Requirements Document which has been
submitted to Network Rail, and this has led on to Network Rail issuing a draft version of a Development
Services Agreement to initiate further development of the scheme and subsequent implementation. This
will be signed by Merseytravel in due course.
6.2.3 Rail Industry Governance
Investment in the rail industry is governed by Governance in Rail Investment Process (GRIP). This is
summarised as an eight-stage process as shown in Figure 6.3 below.
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Figure 6.3: Governance in Rail Investment Process (GRIP)
Source: Network Rail
GRIP also requires stage gate reviews at the various stages in the process. As outlined in Network Rail’s
GRIP guidelines, the project will be subject to at least four mandatory stage gate reviews during its’
lifecycle. Two reviews have already taken place during the development phase, which has produced an
agreed single option for the scheme and agreed the project scope ahead of the award of a detailed design
and construction contract. The project will be subject to two other reviews at scheme hand-back and
project close out. Each review investigates the completeness of the products, and identifies whether it is
anticipated that the project can successfully continue.
The Office for Rail Regulation (ORR) has produced a document which details all their relevant guidance –
Investment framework consolidated policy and guidelines (ORR, October 2010), which highlights Network
Rail’s role in projects such as this. This includes facilitating, and where appropriate, delivering
improvements proposed by operators, Government or other third parties. In the case of Maghull North
Merseytravel would be classified as a third party. An overview of the process is provided is provided in
Figure 6.4 below.
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Figure 6.4: Investment process policy and guidelines
Source: ORR, Investment in framework and consolidated policy and guidelines, October 2010
Network Rail’s Investment in Stations document sets out the design and approval process which is
required from Network Rail for building a new station. This is dependent upon Network Rail’s role in the
development of the station, which is either:
Network Rail is commissioned using forms of contract in the suite approved by ORR. It works towards
designs which are compliant with standards and capable of being built. Network Rail would then
oversee construction and hand over to the selected operator; or
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Network Rail takes an asset protection role (ASPRO) and would approve plans through a two tier
process.
Change Procedure – this relates to any change to the agreement with the Train Operating Company
(TOC) for occupancy and access within the station; and
Closure – this relates to reducing or removing any part of a contracted facility. This requires formal
agreement with the Office for Rail Regulation (ORR) and the TOC.
6.2.4 Integrated Working
In order to manage the scheme four ‘working groups’ have been established at various levels to allow
effective management of and knowledge sharing within the scheme. The structure is illustrated in Figure
6.5 below.
Figure 6.5: Working group structure for Maghull North
Source: Merseytravel
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The various attendees and remits for the working groups are shown in Table 6.2 below.
Table 6.2: Working Groups – roles and responsibilities
Remit Attendees Frequency
Strategic Group Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail Sefton Council
4 weekly
Partner Stakeholder Group
Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail Sefton Council Homes & Communities Agency Persimmon Homes
4 weekly
Project Delivery Group
Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail
4 weekly
Design Review Meeting
Review and agree emerging designs
Ensure compliance with Railway Group Standards
Ensure compliance with SFO operational requirements
Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail Buckingham Group Opus Other sub-consultants
2 weekly
Land & Property Meeting
Arrange transfer of land from HCA to Merseytravel
Acquire licences to enter land for surveys before transfer is complete
Identify and close out risks and covenants relating to the land transfer from HCA
Ensure timely transfer from HCA
Arrange transfer from Merseytravel to Network Rail and Merseyrail
Merseytravel Network Rail
4 weekly approx
Regulatory Meeting
Carry out regulatory processes to ensure that the station becomes operational and complies with ORR requirements
Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail
As required at present. Likely to become 4 weekly in due course
Timetabling Meeting
Remodel timetable to allow for additioinal stop at Maghull North
Take new timetable through the Network Rail timetabling process
Ensure compatibility with other timetable changes, especially the December 2017 changes in the North West area
Merseytravel Merseyrail Network Rail
As required at present. Likely to become 4 weekly in due course
Merseytravel Internal Working Group
Merseytravel: Rail Finance Legal Asset Management Planning
4 weekly
Source: Merseytravel
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A Project Delivery Group has been established. Chaired by Merseytravel this is attended by Network Rail
and Merseyrail and will provide direct management of the scheme and helps to provide the required liaison
with the Stakeholder Group. The Stakeholder Group will report up to the Steering Group attended by
senior stakeholder representatives. It is not anticipated that all members of the Stakeholder Group will
need to attend each meeting, for example, the Highways Agency and HCA are only likely to attend to aid
programming and consider interactions with their nearby projects and developments. Network Rail,
Merseytravel and Merseyrail have each already established internal groups to discuss technical aspects of
the scheme.
6.3 Assurance
6.3.1 Timescales
The key programme milestones for the project in the GRIP (Governance for Rail Investment Projects)
stages are set out in Table 6.3 below.
Table 6.3: Key Programme Milestones – Maghull North
Source: Network Rail
Figure 6.6 shows the stages that the project will pass through in relation to the GRIP stages; it includes the
various actions to be taken at the end of each stage gate review.
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Figure 6.6: GRIP and business case programme
Source: Merseytravel
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6.3.2 Approvals
A range of different approvals will be required in relation to the scheme including the following:
All activities undertaken by Merseytravel are governed by the Constitution under which it operates. For
financial activity, for entering into the requisite agreements with Network Rail approval will be required
from Merseytravel or for activity less than £100,000 through the Delegated Decision approvals process;
Network Rail will be required to apply for their own internal approvals to allow the third party investment
to take place and the necessary Agreements to be drawn up and entered into;
Stage Gate reviews are conducted following completion of each GRIP stage to ensure the scheme can
be continued, with the following dates anticipated:
– GRIP3 (option selection) – June 2016
– GRIP4 (single option) – February 2016
– GRIP5 (detailed design) – December 2017
Planning Approval will be required for the scheme, with approval date anticipated for January 2017;
Traffic Regulation Orders may be required for certain highway elements of the scheme (i.e. on the
approach roads); and
Relevant licences from utilities (e.g. discharge licence from United Utilities).
6.3.3 Operating New Stations
Network Rail’s Investment in Stations document sets out a number of issues which need to be addressed
when considering new stations. These are:
Commitment from the train operator to call at the station and provide access to revenue and ticketing
arrangements;
Incorporation into the safety regime provided by the Railways and Other Guided Transport Systems
(Safety) Regulations 2006;
Inclusion of the station within regulated access arrangements, permitting its use by other train
operators;
Provision of a licensed Station Facility Owner (SFO) to operate the station;
The creation of a property interest in the station, giving the operator the right to manage the station and
deal with station access arrangements; and
The position regarding responsibilities of ownership.
The proposed resolution of these issues is summarised in Table 6.4 below.
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Table 6.4: Resolution of issues relating to operating a new station
Issue Resolution
Contractual commitment from the train operator to call at the station
Discussions with Merseyrail and amend Merseyrail concession agreement to include new station.
Discussions and agreement with Merseyrail relating to timetable change to allow services to call at station.
Incorporation into the safety regime provided by the Railways and Other Guided Transport Systems (Safety) Regulations 2006
Safety authorisation will be required from Office of Rail Regulation.
Inclusion of the station within regulated access arrangements
Discussions with Office of Rail Regulation required.
Provision of a licenced Station Facility Owner (SFO) SFO identified as Merseyrail. Discussions with Office of Rail Regulation and possibly Department for Transport will be required.
Property Interest Station lease between Network Rail and the SFO to be drawn up and signed.
Responsibilities of Ownership Detailing the responsibilities of maintenance, to be dealt with in the station agreement.
Source: Mott MacDonald
6.4 Delivery Programme
Design and delivery of the scheme is to be through Network Rail and appropriate consultants/contractors
identified and appointed by them. Development and delivery of the scheme will accord with the
requirements of the appropriate stages of GRIP (Guide to Railway Investment Process).
6.4.1 Design Stage
The design stage for the rail related elements will include:
Review of work previously undertaken on behalf of Merseytravel in 2010. Design will commence upon
verification of preferred option;
Liaison with all internal disciplines to gain understanding of their requirements from the scheme, ensure
their buy in to scheme deliverables and efficient hand-back and on-going maintenance upon
completion of scheme;
Outline and detailed design in accordance with all relevant Network Rail Group Standards, and
complying with DfT Code of Practice for Accessible Train Station Design for Disabled People and
client requirements;
Undertaking of all relevant surveys;
Obtaining of all related internal design approvals;
Obtaining of all relevant planning approvals as applicable;
Promotion and undertaking of related Station Agreement;
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Issue of Approved for Construction drawings and liaison with contractor (and their sub-contractors)
during implementation.
6.4.2 Implementation Stage
The implementation stage for the scheme will include:
Implementation of designed scheme;
Co-ordination with contractor/s delivering other phases of the scheme;
Adherence to agreed phasing plan;
Discharge of any related Planning Approval conditions;
Obtaining all necessary possessions / isolations;
Implementation of scheme in a safe and efficient manner minimizing disruption to users of the station
and the station’s neighbours; and
Successful sign-off / hand-back of scheme to relevant Route Asset Stewards and the identified Station
Facilities Operator (SFO).
6.4.3 Scheme Exit Strategy
An exit strategy will be initiated that reflects the approach being adopted for the design and delivery of the
scheme including the following key elements.
The station will be upon land within Network Rail’s ownership and within the identified Station Lease area
of the Station Facility Operator (SFO). Upon completion of the works sign-off / hand back to Network Rail
will take place. No liability for the provisions of the scheme will remain with Merseytravel following hand-
back to Network Rail. In principle, the provisions of the scheme on rail owned land will pass into the
ownership of Network Rail. The station agreement will reflect the Station Lease area and the assets within
it consequent to the scheme. The Annexes to the Station Lease will identify the maintenance, repair and
renewal responsibilities (Network Rail / SFO) for the new assets and the bearer of associated costs. Risk
Management Strategy
The station car park will be located on Merseytravel owned land and will be leased to the Train Operating
Company (Merseyrail). The maintenance, repair and renewal liability for the car park will be accepted by
Merseyrail once the scheme is approved by the Combined Authority.
6.5 Risk Management Strategy
The production of a risk register forms an integral task associated with standard project management
procedures that are conducted by either Merseytravel or Network Rail. The risk register for the scheme
will be reviewed regularly throughout the detailed design, procurement, construction and also post-
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construction phases of the scheme as a standard item to be addressed by the Project Delivery Group. Any
unresolved or significant issues or problems which are identified or that occur will be escalated through the
appropriate governance procedures that are now in place.
6.5.1 Risk Assessment
The risk register captures high level risks and any issues identified for the different scheme elements
during development and implementation. A risk and issues workshop was held on 19 February 2015.
This has helped to update the identified risks, identify any appropriate mitigation measures and allocate the
risks to the appropriate Officer within Merseytravel to track during the course of the project. The results of
this are discussed below.
Further details on the Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) undertaken for the scheme are included in
Section 4.5 where key risk components have been identified together with likelihood, impact on cost and
also anticipated mitigation measures to address the risks. A summary of the top three risks that have been
identified for the scheme are set out in Table 6.5 below, and full details in Appendix N.
Table 6.5: Summary of key risks
Risk Event Consequences Mitigation Probability Impact
Uncertainty over the final operating costs of the scheme
Undermines the business case, revenue doesn’t cover operating costs and station requires subsidy.
Merseytravel in discussions with Merseyrail to finalise operating costs. Various alternative operating scenarios have been identified which could be progressed to minimise operating costs / increase passenger revenue in order for revenue to cover operating costs.
40% High
Failure to incorporate Maghull North into Merseyrail Electric Ltd.’s (MEL) contract.
Station is built but is not transferred to MEL, leaving Merseytravel with ongoing maintenance / operating costs.
Early discussions with MEL to formalise staffing and operational matters are ongoing. Signed variation to the concession agreement will be required.
25% High
Failure to incorporate calls at Maghull North into existing timetable.
Station is built but no train services call at the station.
Initial work assumes two minute required in each direction to call at station. Merseytravel are liaising with MEL to resolve. There are two options; either re-casting the timetable or increasing the number of train units to adhere to existing timetable. Both options are stop-gaps until new rolling stock is rolled out on Merseyrail network.
25% High
Source: Mott MacDonald
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As part of the risk workshop the full list of risks were reviewed and updated as appropriate. Each risk was
assigned to the organisation best placed to manage that risk (and this is replicated in the transfer of risk in
the various contracts for the scheme). In addition, for each risk a Merseytravel officer has been identified
and these staff will be responsible firstly for tracking that risk throughout the course of the scheme and
secondly for liaising with partners as appropriate in order that appropriate mitigation measures can be
adopted to minimise the chance of the risk occurring.
The working groups which have been constituted provide opportunities to discuss project risks at the
appropriate level. Ultimate responsibility for risk resolution will be dealt with by the Steering Group,
although risk will be dealt with at the appropriate level – either Project Delivery Group, Stakeholder Group
or Steering Group.
6.5.2 Evidence of Delivery of Similar Projects
A number of projects relating to improved access and expanded car parking facilities have recently been
undertaken on Merseyside. The most recent new railway stations on Merseyside were opened at
Liverpool South Parkway (2006), Lea Green, Wavertree Technology Park (both 2000), Brunswick and
Conway Park (both 1998). These projects are summarised in Table 6.6, with selected projects discussed
in more detail below.
Table 6.6: Recent projects delivered by Merseytravel
Scheme Date Elements
Birkenhead North 2012-14 Accessibility enhancements and new car park at an existing station.
Liverpool Central 2012 Accessibility and refurbishment of an existing station.
Liverpool South Parkway 2006 New four platform station, with bus interchange and car park, to replace nearby Garston and Allerton stations
Lea Green 2000 New two platform station, with car park and bus interchange, between St Helens Junction and Rainhill on the City Line.
Wavertree Technology Park 2000 New two platform station between Edge Hill and Broad Green on the Liverpool-Manchester/Preston line.
Brunswick 1998 New two platform station between Liverpool Central and St Michaels on the Northern Line.
Conway Park 1998 New two-platform sub-surface station, between Birkenhead Park and Hamilton Square on the Wirral Lines.
Source: Merseytravel
Birkenhead North
Merseytravel managed the delivery of improved access arrangements and a park and ride facility at
Birkenhead North in two phases. The first phase of the works provided a 274 space car park with
dedicated Blue Badge spaces, lighting and CCTV coverage. This was delivered between August and
December 2012. The second phase of the works, valued at £2.75 million, was undertaken jointly with
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Merseyrail and Network Rail to deliver the project over an eight month period, commencing in September
2013 and opening on time in April 2014. The scheme comprised the following:
Removal of existing station footbridge and provision of a temporary structure during the works;
Construction of two new lift shafts, including one on a narrow island platform; and
Construction of two new bridge sections to span across four operational railway lines.
The scheme overcame a number of challenges during delivery, including variable ground conditions, the
need to maintain the operation of the station, and the requirement to undertake major work elements
during night time closures of the railway.
Although this scheme is of a smaller scale than that proposed at Maghull North, it does show Merseytravel,
Merseyrail and Network Rail collaborating closely to deliver a project on time and to budget. It also
provides evidence of a phased project having been delivered, should the project at Maghull North be
delivered in a similar manner.
Liverpool Central
Merseytravel were involved in a joint project with Network Rail and Merseyrail managing the delivery of
improvements to the concourse at Liverpool Central. Works were jointly funded by Merseytravel and the
European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). Merseytravel were responsible for day-to-day liaison with
the Project Managers and Contractor to ensure continuity of delivery in line with the design requirements
whilst also ensuring works remained on time and on budget.
The scheme included the following elements:
Provision of enlarged concourse areas and integration of lift access into the concourse area;
Improved passenger flow, through changes to the ticket gate lines;
Creation of new passenger waiting areas;
Improved lighting and CCTV coverage; and
Refurbishment of floor, wall and ceiling finishes.
The scheme at Liverpool Central was split into two distinct areas, with one part of the project dealing with
the surface level station concourse and one part dealing with the sub-surface station platforms.
Merseytravel were responsible for the concourse works whilst Network Rail were responsible for works at
the platform level. The project demonstrates that Network Rail and Merseytravel have previously worked
in close collaboration to deliver a high profile project, with the refurbished station winning several awards,
including Station of the Year at the National Rail Awards in 201315.
15 http://www.merseytravel.gov.uk/about-us/media-centre/news/Pages/Liverpool-Central-Station-scoops-second-award-in-a-month.aspx
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Lea Green
Lea Green offers an example of a station of a similar scope to Maghull North. It included:
Two fully accessible platforms with pedestrian bridge connected by ramps;
Simple waiting shelters on both platforms;
Ticket office staffed from first to last train;
200 space car park; and
Simple bus interchange, with bus shelters.
The scheme costs amounted to £2.4 million, with over 50% of the costs contributed by Merseytravel. The
scheme provides a fully accessible station to a population (as at 2000) of 9,000, projected to double
following the completion of local housing developments. This is a similar situation to that at Maghull North,
with the station designed to serve large scale housing development.
The completion of the scheme suggests that Merseytravel have experience of delivering stations of a
similar scale to that at Maghull North. Currently station footfall estimates from the ORR suggest demand of
0.394 million at Lea Green for 2014/15, which shows sustained growth from its opening in 2000.
Wavertree Technology Park
Wavertree Technology Park is a new station on the Liverpool-Manchester via Earlestown route and was
built at a similar time to Lea Green. It included:
Two fully accessible platforms with pedestrian bridge;
Lifts and stepped access from the platforms to the bridge;
Simple waiting shelters on both platforms;
Ticket office staffed from first to last train; and
Opportunities to interchange with local bus services.
The scheme costs amounted to £3 million, with over 60% of the costs contributed by Merseytravel, with
remaining monies coming from an Objective One European Union funding grant. The scheme provides a
fully accessible station to a population (as at 2000) of 13,000. It also provides access to the Wavertree
Technology Park, which houses over 20 companies employing over 6,000 people.
Again, the completion of the scheme suggests that Merseytravel have experience of delivering stations of
a similar scale to that at Maghull North. Currently station footfall estimates from the ORR suggest demand
of 0.458 million at Wavertree Technology Park for 2014/15, which again shows high levels of growth from
its opening in 2000.
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6.5.3 Project Dependencies
There are a number of schemes within the local area which have varying degrees of interaction with the
scheme at Maghull North. These schemes vary from non-committed interventions on the railway network
to interventions on the local road network which have the potential to impact on mode choice in the area.
These schemes have been identified and discussed in Table 2.15. In summary, there are several road
schemes as well as a number of uncommitted rail schemes. All have the potential to impact on demand
forecasts at Maghull North, but have not been considered within the demand forecasts.
None of the schemes will impact on the delivery of Maghull North station, or have any interdependency
with the station. There may be minor impacts on project programmes (for example, not being able to bring
in construction materials from M58 Junction 1 during construction of that scheme) and this will be
monitored as the project progresses at Stakeholder Group meetings, in order to ensure that there is no
conflict with timings. It is envisaged that development of the site adjacent to the station, and
enhancements to M58 Junction 1 will be completed prior to construction of the station.
6.6 Communication and Stakeholder Management
6.6.1 Stakeholders
A number of stakeholders have been identified in relation to the scheme. The identified stakeholders are
summarised in Table 6.7 below.
Table 6.7: List of key stakeholders
Organisation Role
Access Groups Various support groups within Sefton for those with accessibility problems.
Bus Operators Current operators of bus services around Maghull area.
Department for Transport Overarching responsibility for rail strategy. Need to be aware of any proposals which impact on rail revenue, and require proposals to have a robust business case.
Highways Agency Responsible for trunk road network, including M58 junction 1 which forms the main access to School Lane from the east.
Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) Currently owns the land on which the station will be located. Adjacent land is to be developed as housing.
Liverpool City Region Combined Authority Combined authority for Merseyside and Halton with statutory responsibility to co-ordinate and promote public transport use in the area.
Maghull Town Council Parish Council for Maghull area with various responsibilities, including conveying opinions on local developments to Sefton Council.
Merseyrail Train operator running services on Liverpool-Ormskirk line. Will be Station Facility Operator (SFO) for proposed station at Maghull North.
Merseytravel Implements the Combined Authority’s policies with its own functions, duties and responsibilities.
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Organisation Role
Network Rail Owns the railway infrastructure and accountable for operation, maintenance and renewal of network assets.
Office of Rail Regulation Issues and modifies licences to operate trains and stations. Any changes to station facilities require a station change which change station access agreements and requires ORR approval.
Public / Residents Impacted by changes in traffic flows, noise and air quality resulting from new railway station.
Rail User Groups Groups representing rail users
Rail Users Will directly benefit from provision of a new railway station.
Sefton Council Local Authority for Maghull area, who will be responsible for determining Planning Application for the scheme.
West Lancashire Council Adjacent Local Authority; residents of local authority are likely to benefit from new station, through rail heading to Maghull North.
Source: Mott MacDonald
6.6.2 Consultation
A public information event was held in November 2015, which included a leaflet drop of approximately
5,000 households in the local area and a drop-in session. This was held on the afternoon of 24 November
at Maghull Town Hall. Figure 6.7 shows the leaflet distributed in the local area.
Figure 6.7: Information distributed to local residents
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Source: Merseytravel
Prior to the formal consulation event various comments and statements have been made by local
councillors and the Sefton Central MP, Bill Esterson, related to the scheme. These are reproduced in
Table 6.8 below.
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Table 6.8: Comments relating to existing transport problems and the proposed station at Maghull North
Source Comments Date
Merseytravel Press Release on the Long Term Rail Strategy which includes Maghull North
Councillor Liam Robinson: “This is real ‘big picture’ thinking by the Liverpool City Region. Such strategies are not traditionally driven by local bodies. Doing it this way, working with Network Rail, ensures that our transport planning is intrinsically linked to our economic planning…The rail strategy is about coordination and building on our successes…it is about ensuring that the rail connections we have within our city region link seamless ly with those beyond, not only to what we would consider the untapped potential of local catchment areas… ”
August 2014
Labour Press Release,
Website of Bill Esterson MP
Bill Esterson MP “This is great news for the campaign and for the whole of East Sefton. Cllr Liam Robinson’s commitment to the new Maghull North railway station is testament to the hard work of the Maghull & Lydiate Labour Action Teams who have been campaigning hard for this new station for many years”.
Councillor Patrick McKinley “This was part of a successful bid to improve transport infrastructure in the North West which is something we desperately need in our region. We are very pleased to see that the £6.1m bid has been successful. Investment is just what we need to boost our local economy and create the jobs that are needed. And anything which improves transport networks in Maghull is most welcome particularly in the east side of Maghull where public transport is in need of improvement”.
Councillor Lynn Gatherer “This is great news…Lots of people in this part of Maghull tell me that we need this sort of infrastructure improvement here”.
John Sayers – Maghull Labour Action Team “Of course this is good news for Maghull. I’m lucky enough to live close enough to our existing station to be able to walk there, but for people living along Park Lane or throughout the east of Maghull then they’ve got a bit of a hike. For those lucky enough to have a car, then more often than not, there are no parking spaces left at Maghull. A new station will bring new parking spaces and will hopefully alleviate the problem. It’s good news all around”.
July 2014
Liverpool Echo Councillor Tony Robertson “We all want the station to be built – that’s quite important to the local community” July 2014
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Source Comments Date
Knowsley Chamber of Commerce Website (report on LCR Growth Deal)
David Cameron PM “Growth Deals are a crucial part of our long-term plan to secure Britain’s future. For too long our economy has been too London-focussed and too centralised. Growth Deals will help change all that. They are about firing up our great towns and cities, boosting local economies and driving growth across the country. This historic deal means real change for Liverpool, including major investment in transport to help people to get to work and back business…By trusting local people, backing business and investing in infrastructure, skills and housing, we can create thousands of new jobs. And that means more economic security, peace of mind and a brighter future for hardworking people in Liverpool.”
Nick Clegg Deputy PM “The Liverpool Growth Deal will create thousands of jobs, provide incredible new training opportunities for young people, build new homes and improve transport links across the region for people and their families; building a stronger economy and a fairer society. We’re placing the power and money in the hands of the people in Liverpool who know how to spend it best, making a real difference to local communities”.
Robert Hough, Liverpool City Region LEP chairman “Both the public and private sector identified what was needed for the City Region to accelerate economic growth and create new jobs. The £230 million awarded to us will not only create jobs and stimulate the economy in the short term, but with improved infrastructure, the City Region will be better positioned to attract investment and ensure long-term growth and prosperity. This announcement clearly shows that the Government has recognised that our work and structures here provide the capacity to unlock the region’s potential as an economic powerhouse”.
Joe Anderson, Mayor of Liverpool “This is great news for Liverpool and means we can build further on the recent transformation of the City Centre. The £52 million commitment to these schemes will enable us to push-on with the next phase of our investment strategy”.
Councillor Phil Davies, Chair of LCR Combined Authority “This announcement is great news for our City Region. As a City Region we have clearly demonstrated that the public sector and private sector can work together to identify priorities for investment. The announcement also shows that our governance structure as a City Region is working and that by focussing on the strategic projects within the Growth Deal we can bring widespread economic benefit to the whole of the City Region”.
July 2014
Liverpool Echo
Councillor Liam Robinson, chair of Merseytravel, met with Bill Esterson MP and the Maghull and Lydiate Labour Action Team at the site of the proposed Maghull North station
Councillor Liam Robinson “There is a strong case for Maghull North Station with the benefits it brings to rail passengers and this community. Merseytravel fully understand the local demand for it”
Bill Esterson MP “Our site visit at the location where the new Maghull North station would be located was very positive”
June 2014
Merseytravel Press Release on the Long Term Rail Strategy which includes Maghull North
Councillor Liam Robinson: “This is about thinking big and being co-ordinated in the way we grow and develop the rail network, so we can ensure we are properly focussed on supporting the growth of the Liverpool City Region economy, not purely for our benefit but as our overall contribution to the UK economy…It’s essential that we consider how projects work together to improve connectivity and capacity, rather than delivering piecemeal projects in isolation”
May 2014
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Source Comments Date
HCA Press Release on Ashworth planning application
The site has huge potential to create a well-planned residential development, providing:
– Around 370 new homes, including affordable housing
– Car parking to support a new railway station ‘Maghull North’ to access the development and connect into the wider area, ensuring delivery of a key transport objective
– Protection and enhancement of the site’s landscape, environment and ecology
May 2014
Labour Press Release,
Website of Bill Esterson MP
Plans for 250 houses on Ashworth South site renew calls for Maghull North railway station
Councillor Patrick McKinley
– “these plans are at an early stage, but if given the go ahead, it would strengthen the call for a new train station”
– “Hundreds of people signed our petition calling for the new station for Maghull and that was before any plans for these new houses. The need for a new station would be even greater if this housing scheme was given the green light”
– “But I do know that the people of Maghull would like another train station
– “This station was called for long before the prison was ever mooted”
– “There is still a very real need for this station in Maghull and there is very real demand from the people who live in the northern part of the town”
Undated
Maghull Town Council, Survey on Resident’s Views of Option 2 of The Local Plan for Sefton
71% of residents suggest that transport improvements are needed
Transport improvements are needed but not at the price for large scale development Undated, circa July-September 2013
Champion, Sefton and West Lancashire’s online news service
Second station at Maghull subject to a recent petition in support of it
Bill Esterson MP “it is something which is wanted by people in that part of the community who have complained to me that they feel isolated from the rest of the town. I will be working with the community to call on the Government to grant funding for the new train station”
Councillor Tony Robertson “If we don’t keep pressing and fighting we’ll never get it [new station]…but we must not give up on it for the sake of anyone who lives near the existing station”
December 2010
Source: Various
Maghull North Railway Station Full Business Case
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The Planning Application for housing on the Ashworth Hospital South site has been granted conditional
approval by Sefton Council; the original planning application invited comments from interested parties16
(comments now removed and consultation closed). These comments suggested strong support for the
new railway station at Maghull North and frustration with the scheme having been ‘promised’ before but not
delivered. The document states the following:
“There was strong support from the local community to safeguard land for the future Maghull
North rail station and car park, proposed by Merseytravel. This will ensure sustainable
transport links for the new homes and the surrounding residential area.”
‘Respond’ is a Customer Response Management system utilised by Merseytravel. It is used to record
comments, complaints and compliments from customers of Merseytravel. Where there are specific queries
that require an action, the appropriate Merseytravel Officer is identified; any response which they provide is
also recorded in the system. As the project moves forward comments from the Respond system will be
provided to the wider project team, so as to keep up-to-date with public concerns in the local area.
The proposed engagement with wider and core stakeholders are shown below. A Communications
Strategy has been developed for the project and this is included as Appendix N. This is designed to fulfil
the aims of the Merseytravel Corporate Plan and the associated Corporate Communication Strategy, which
is also included as Appendix S for completeness. A summary of the Stakeholder Communication and
Management Strategy, highlighting the proposed methods of engagement with the identified stakeholders
is shown in Table 6.9 below.
16 http://pa.sefton.gov.uk/online-applications/files/03F8074DDC1F50D7A3D1FBC0E9D5FF02/pdf/DC_2014_00980-CONSULTATION_STATEMENT_V1.0_PART1-722712.pdf
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Table 6.9: Method of engagement with stakeholders
Stakeholder Method
Districts/
Political
Combined Authority leaders (most notably Sefton) Reports at key milestones; Chair stakeholder email; as part of regular Merseytravel briefings; one-to-ones.
LEP
Reports at key milestones; Chair stakeholder email; one-to-ones.
Merseytravel committee members (Sefton) One-to-ones; reports at key milestones; e-communications.
Neighbouring authority - West Lancashire Borough Council Stakeholder newsletter e-comms.
Sefton Central MP, Bill Esterson
Reports at key milestones; Chair stakeholder email; one-to-ones.
Maghull Town Council
Reports at key milestones; one-to-ones.
Internal
Merseytravel Committee Members Reports at key milestones; briefings; @allstaff emails; weekly updates; stakeholder email; members briefing.
Merseytravel (Board)
Reports at key milestones; weekly meetings.
Merseytravel staff @allstaff emails, Connect, Weekly Staff Briefing, OnePlace.
Bus operators One-to-ones; stakeholder meetings.
Other rail operators (e.g. Northern Rail) One-to-Ones;
e-comms; stakeholder newsletter.
Other External bodies DfT / Growth Deal One-to-ones; reports at key milestones.
Liverpool and Sefton Chamber of Commerce Stakeholder newsletter; one-to-ones.
PTEG Press release.
Press & Media (Liverpool Echo + local weeklies) Publicity at key milestones; press releases; Editor Briefings/Radio phone-ins.
Press & Media (trade) Publicity at key milestones; press releases.
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Stakeholder Method
Paying Public Publicity, Press & PR, roadshows, customer forums.
Rail North One-to-ones, scheduled meetings.
Neighbours (local residents) Letters, drop-in forums, publicity in local press.
Maghull Station Volunteers One-to-ones.
Source: Merseytravel
Table 6.10: Core stakeholder engagement
Stakeholder Method
Sefton Council Chief Exec Reports at key milestones; Chief exec stakeholder email; as part of regular Merseytravel briefings; regular briefings with Frank Rogers.
Sefton ward councillors (rep. area station is located within)
Updates via Merseytravel committee members, Sefton internal processes/channels.
Merseyrail One-to-ones; e-comms; part of deliver and comms group meetings; reports at key milestones.
Network Rail One-to-ones; e-comms; part of deliver and comms group meetings; reports at key milestones.
Homes and Communities Agency (HCA)
One-to-ones; reports at key milestones.
Persimmon Homes (Housing Developer)
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As the scheme progresses the Stakeholder Communication and Management Strategy will be updated to
reflect the various proposed methods used so that elected representatives, nearby residents and the wider
general public can be advised on the progress with the scheme and key activities which are planned with
regards its development and implementation.
6.6.3 Rail Information Project
As part of the scheme development, a six week long public information campaign will be run by
Merseytravel. This will provide the public with opportunities to comment on the scheme option developed
for Maghull North. It would include a public exhibition at various times to be held in a relevant location,
together with leaflets, posters and a website disseminating information about the scheme. The public
would be asked for their views on the scheme and scheme neighbours will be consulted for the second
time.
6.7 Monitoring and Evaluation
The Magenta Book17 provides Central Government guidance on evaluation and details best practice that
should be followed. This identifies that evaluation should be “proportionate to the risks, scale and profile of
the policy”. It also identifies the types of evaluation, namely:
Process evaluation – how the policy was delivered; and
Impact evaluation – what difference the policy made.
Based on the economic assessment there are a number of headline demand forecasts for 2036. These
include facilitating a total of 219,200 new-to-rail journeys at Maghull North, 186,000 rail journeys abstracted
from other stations and 54,000 new-to-rail journeys induced at Town Green, Aughton Park and Ormskirk.
Given the importance of demonstrating clear links between the outputs from the scheme and their
outcomes and how these support the project objectives, a causal chain diagram has been produced which
highlights the expected outputs, outcomes and impacts of the scheme as a whole. This leads onto the
measures Merseytravel intend to use to assess the success of the scheme against its strategic outcomes
and impacts. The causal chain diagram is shown in Figure 6.8 below.
17 The Magenta Book: Guidance for evaluation, HM Treasury, April 2011
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Figure 6.8: Monitoring causal chain diagram
Source: Merseytravel
A number of key outcomes have been identified, including:
Improved access to and from the station;
Improved passenger experience and satisfaction with the station;
Improved accessibility to employment sites, education and leisure;
Mode shift to sustainable modes (bus and rail); and
Increase in levels of park and ride usage.
The key impacts from the scheme will be:
Increase in rail patronage in the Maghull area;
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Increase in use of public and sustainable transport to access the station, including increased levels of
bus, walking and cycling; and
Economic growth, including uplift in job opportunities and GVA.
In terms of impact evaluation, a number of potential data sources have been identified which could be of
use in considering the effectiveness of the scheme. These are summarised in Table 6.11.
Table 6.11: Possible data sources and relevant performance indicators for monitoring and evaluation
Subject Data Source Measures Outcome
Overall demand at stations (Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull North, Maghull, Aintree)
Data collection exercise
Boarding and alighting at the station on surveyed trains
Reduction in demand at existing stations;
Monitoring of demand build-up at Maghull North
Mode of access to Maghull North station
Data collection exercise or NPS data
% of demand travelling to station by:
– Cycle
– Bus
– Car (dropped off / as passenger)
– Car (as driver)
– Taxi
– On foot
Calculate actual demand by mode (link to overall demand) and monitor over time
Mode of access to existing stations (Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull, Aintree)
Data collection exercise or NPS data
% of demand travelling to station by:
– Cycle
– Bus
– Car (dropped off / as passenger)
– Car (as driver)
– Taxi
– On foot
Calculate actual demand by mode (link to overall demand) and monitor over time
Level of use of park and ride facilities
Surveys at stations
% of demand travelling to station by car and parking at station car park
% occupancy of car park
Increase in measures at Maghull North, reductions at Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and Aintree
Satisfaction with park and ride facilities
National Passenger Surveys
% satisfied with car parking at station
Increase in measures at all stations.
Congestion in local area Data collection exercise Traffic flows (and possibly
speeds) on key links around Maghull
Decrease in traffic flows on links around existing station
Source: Mott MacDonald
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The National Rail Passenger Survey (NRPS) provides a twice yearly survey on a representative sample of
journeys, undertaking in both spring and autumn. This looks at specific details of the service and allows a
comparison over time.
There are some weaknesses in the survey, in that in order to gain a representative sample the stations
included in one survey ‘wave’ may not necessarily be included in the next survey. In order to be able to
use the data to monitor changes on the Liverpool-Ormskirk line we would have to be confident that the
relevant stations would be included in both ‘before’ and ‘after’ survey waves. Merseytravel will seek to
boost the survey at key stations between Aintree and Ormskirk before and after station opening, the results
of which will be used to measure mode of access to each station and satisfaction with car parking facilities.
It is vital that the travel patterns of current non-rail users that may be attracted to the new station are also
captured before completion. It is proposed that a bespoke survey is undertaken to capture travel patterns
of residents living in Maghull and West Lancashire is conducted, which will measure the impact the new
station will have on mode shift and access to employment sties, education and leisure; as well as to
estimate displacement from other rail stations.
Merseytravel have undertaken boarding and alighting count surveys on trains on the Northern Line and
which potentially form the basis for regular monitoring in the future. Another potential data source is train
count data that they may hold for the Liverpool-Ormskirk route.
Traffic and parking surveys will also be necessary in the local area. Car park occupancy surveys both
before and after the scheme at relevant stations will need to be undertaken to establish the level of use of
each station as a park and ride site. Consultation with Sefton Council will be able to establish which roads
in the Maghull area they feel are subject to congestion as a result of traffic to and from the existing station.
The targets and measures of the scheme’s success need to be established once the baseline data is
available. Several data sources for monitoring the project have been identified, and an appropriate up-to-
date baseline position will need to be established before meaningful targets, with appropriate timescales,
are established.
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6.8 Conclusions
The new station at Maghull North will be delivered over a three year period with the scheme
completed in time for opening with the planned May 2018 timetable change. Information provided in
the management case evidence highlights that:
Robust governance, assurance (through the GRIP stages) and risk management processes
are in place to deliver the scheme;
As part of the risk assessment and QRA process risks have been taken into account, and
risks have been reviewed at a risk workshop held in February 2015;
A list of key stakeholders relating to the project has been identified. A Stakeholder
Communication and Management Strategy is in the process of being developed to ensure
that effective engagement takes place through the different stages of scheme delivery; and
A set of potential data sources and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) have been identified
to help establish a monitoring and evaluation framework to assess the success in meeting its
objectives which will be further developed for the full business case.
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7.1 Summary
The proposed station at Maghull North performs well against each of the five cases set out above as
summarised in Table 7.1 below.
Table 7.1: Business Case Summary
Measure of success
Strategic Case
The scheme has a robust case for change with a number of clearly identified problems in terms of accessibility and car park capacity. The station will support housing and employment developments on adjacent land, ensuring that the rail station contributes to the sustainable growth of the economy of the Liverpool City Region.
Economic Case
The appraisal shows that the scheme will produce a BCR of 1.89 which represent medium value for money. Without full deployment of the allowance at this stage for Optimism Bias, the BCR of the scheme increases to high.
Financial Case The scheme cost is considered to be affordable.
Commercial Case Merseytravel have received a draft Development Services Agreement which will be signed in due course, and this will allow further development of the scheme.
Management Case The scheme is achievable and both Merseytravel and Network Rail have the necessary procedures in place to ensure successful delivery.
Source: Mott MacDonald
7.2 Conclusions
7 Summary and Conclusions
Demand forecasts have been developed for the scheme with reference to guidance contained within
the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) and the DfT’s web-based Transport Analysis
Guidance (TAG). Demand forecasts predict 369,300 journeys from Maghull North in 2018, with 55%
of these journeys new to rail and 45% of these journeys abstracted from nearby stations.
The economic appraisal forecasts that the scheme will deliver a Present Value of Benefits of £14.377
million. The Present Value of Costs is estimated to be £7.617 million. This suggests that benefit to
cost ratio will be 1.89 which represents medium value for money using the LEP based growth
scenario which uses population and employment forecasts developed for the City Region Long Term
Rail Strategy.