Research Report

A Macroeconomic Overview of GhanaDr. Jeremy Wakeford

Nov 2017

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Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................ 3

List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................. 4

Highlights ...................................................................................................................................................... 5

SWOT Analysis........................................................................................................................................... 5

Macroeconomic outlook ........................................................................................................................... 6

Key macroeconomic indicators ................................................................................................................. 6

Demographics ............................................................................................................................................... 7

Macroeconomic Performance ...................................................................................................................... 8

Economic growth and inflation ................................................................................................................. 8

Composition of GDP .................................................................................................................................. 8

Sectoral growth rates .............................................................................................................................. 10

Employment ............................................................................................................................................ 10

Fiscal sector ............................................................................................................................................. 11

Monetary and financial sector ................................................................................................................ 13

External sector ........................................................................................................................................ 15

Consumption, investment and savings ................................................................................................... 19

Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 21

Governance & Political Stability .................................................................................................................. 22

Socioeconomic Welfare .............................................................................................................................. 23

Urbanisation ............................................................................................................................................ 24

Sectoral Issues ............................................................................................................................................. 25

Agriculture .............................................................................................................................................. 25

Infrastructure .......................................................................................................................................... 26

Energy ..................................................................................................................................................... 27

Oil and Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 28

Mining ..................................................................................................................................................... 30

Tourism & hospitality .............................................................................................................................. 31

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 33

References .................................................................................................................................................. 34

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Population level and growth rate .................................................................................................. 7

Figure 2: Ghana’s population pyramid .......................................................................................................... 7

Figure 3: Macroeconomic performance indicators ...................................................................................... 8

Figure 4: Broad sectoral composition of value added, 2006-2016 ............................................................... 9

Figure 5: Sectoral composition of GDP, 2016 ............................................................................................... 9

Figure 6: Government revenue, expenditure and debt .............................................................................. 12

Figure 7: Money supply and credit extension ............................................................................................. 13

Figure 8: Consumer inflation and interest rate........................................................................................... 14

Figure 9: Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index ..................................................................................... 14

Figure 10: Imports and exports (current US$) ............................................................................................ 15

Figure 11: Prices of main export products .................................................................................................. 16

Figure 12: FDI, remittances, current account balance and exchange rate ................................................. 17

Figure 13: Nominal exchange rates ............................................................................................................ 18

Figure 14: External debt and foreign reserves ............................................................................................ 19

Figure 15: Household consumption expenditure ....................................................................................... 19

Figure 16: Investment and savings ............................................................................................................. 20

Figure 17: Production of main staple crops, 1991-2014 ............................................................................. 25

Figure 18: Production of main export crops, 1991-2014 ............................................................................ 26

Figure 19: Shares of total primary energy supply, 2015 ............................................................................. 27

Figure 20: Electricity generation by source, 2015 ...................................................................................... 28

Figure 21: Petroleum consumption and production, 1990-2015 ............................................................... 29

Figure 22: Map of gold producing areas ..................................................................................................... 30

Figure 23: Hotel accommodation, 2010-2014 ............................................................................................ 32

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List of Tables

Table 1: Forecasts of economic growth in Ghana ......................................................................................... 6

Table 2: Key macroeconomic indicators for 2016 ........................................................................................ 6

Table 3: Growth rates of Gross Domestic Product at constant 2006 prices (percent), 2013-2016 ........... 10

Table 4: Employment status of employed persons aged 15-64 years, 2010 .............................................. 11

Table 5: Economic activity status of persons aged 15-64 years, 2010 ....................................................... 11

Table 6: Average expenditure on selected items for the period 2006-2016 .............................................. 12

Table 7: Top 5 export and import partners, 2016 ....................................................................................... 16

Table 8: Top 5 export and import products, 2016 ...................................................................................... 17

Table 9: Ease of Doing Business rankings for top 20 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa ............................... 21

Table 10: Ghana's position on the Ibrahim Index of African Governance, 2015 ........................................ 22

Table 11: Worldwide Governance Indicators for Ghana, 2016 .................................................................. 22

Table 12: Key socioeconomic indicators for Ghana and Sub-Saharan Africa ............................................. 23

Table 13: Tourism sector statistics, 2011-2014 .......................................................................................... 31

Table 14: Trend of tourist expenditure by percentage breakdown, 2012-2014 ........................................ 31

Table 15: Trend of international tourist arrivals by purpose of visit, 2012-2014 ....................................... 31

Table 16: Hotel room occupancy rates (%) ................................................................................................. 32

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Highlights

SWOT Analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

robust economic growth for two decades

increasing public investment in infrastructure

strong domestic consumption

expanding oil and gas sector

large mineral resources

world’s second biggest cocoa producer

Africa’s second largest gold producer

rising incomes and a growing middle class

solid inflow of remittances

politically stable, peaceful election and power

transition in 2016

strong governance metrics

declining rate of economic growth between

2011-2016, although a rebound is underway

in 2017 with 9% growth in Q2

high and volatile inflation rate

exchange rate weakness and volatility

large fiscal deficit

high and growing level of public debt

persistent large current account deficit

low savings rate

moderate poverty rate (24%)

very limited manufacturing capacity

limited formal sector employment

large skills gap

Opportunities Threats

further investment in infrastructure to boost

growth and competitiveness

further development of oil and gas resources

expansion of downstream petrochemical

industries

demographic dividend

urbanisation and industrialisation potential

regional trade opportunities

financial innovation

External:

uncertain global economic environment

commodity price volatility (oil, gold & cocoa)

global financial market volatility

capital flight from emerging & frontier

economies

Internal:

slow fiscal consolidation may crowd out

private investment and cause overheating

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Macroeconomic outlook

Having posted solid and consistent economic growth over the past two decades, Ghana’s economy is set

to continue growing at rates above 5% for the next few years. Growth is expected to be especially buoyant

in 2018, partly as a result of expanded oil production from the newly developed oil fields.

Table 1: Forecasts of economic growth in Ghana

Agency 2017 2018 2019 2020

World Bank 6.1 7.8 6.2

IMF 5.9 8.9 5.9 5.1

Source: World Bank (2017b), IMF (2017)

Key macroeconomic indicators

Table 2: Key macroeconomic indicators for 2016

Indicator 2016

Population (million) 28.2

Population growth rate 2.2%

Real GDP growth rate 3.6%

Real GDP per capita growth rate 1.3%

GDP per capita (purchasing power parity) $4,294

Inflation rate (annual %) 17.5%

Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) -8.9%

Government gross debt (% of GDP) 73.4%

Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.7%

Source: World Bank (2017a) and IMF (2017)

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Demographics Ghana’s population was estimated to be 28.2 million in 2016 (World Bank, 2017a). The population grew

at an average annual rate of 2.5% between 2006 and 2016, although the rate dropped to 2.2% in 2016

(Figure 1). If it continues to grow at around this rate, the population will double in size over the next 25-

30 years. The median age of Ghana’s population was 21 years in 2016, and the population pyramid is very

steep. These statistics indicate that Ghana holds the potential for a substantial demographic dividend over

the coming decades, so long as the economy can generate enough livelihood opportunities for the

burgeoning working age population and the government invests heavily in skills development.

Furthermore, the demand for basic necessities, services and infrastructure will grow rapidly, putting

considerable pressure on the government to deliver.

Figure 1: Population level and growth rate

Source: World Bank (2017a)

Figure 2: Ghana’s population pyramid

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Macroeconomic Performance

Economic growth and inflation

Real GDP grew by an average rate of 6.8% between 2006 and 2016. The growth rate accelerated markedly

from 4.3% in 2007 to 14% in 2011, driven largely by the advent of oil production from the Jubilee field,

but subsequently growth has slowed to 3.6% in 2016 as key commodity export prices (cocoa and oil)

slumped and inadequate grid power thwarted activity in the industrial sector. Nevertheless, in constant

local currency units, the Ghanaian economy double in size between 2005 and 2016. Despite the relatively

rapid rate of population growth, real GDP per capita growth averaged 4.2% between 2006 and 2016. In

2016, the level of GDP per capita stood at US$1,513, or $4,294 when measured in purchasing power parity

(PPP) terms (current international dollars).

The rate of consumer price inflation averaged 13.4% between 2006 and 2016. Inflation has been quite

volatile over the last 15 years, with major spikes above 25% in 2001 and 2003, and a low of 8.7% in 2011

when the economy was booming. Subsequently, the inflation rate has risen again, reaching 17.5% in 2016.

Figure 3: Macroeconomic performance indicators

Source: World Bank (2017a)

Composition of GDP

Figure 4 shows how the composition of Ghana’s economy has evolved over the past decade. Agriculture’s

share of gross value added declined from 31% in 2006 to 20% in 2016. This is mainly because of the rapid

growth of industry, whose share of value added increased from 21% to 28% over the period. Services have

also expanded their share, rising from 48% to 52%. These trends show a gradual maturing and industrial

transformation of Ghana’s economy, although clearly agriculture remains a vital sector.

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Figure 4: Broad sectoral composition of value added, 2006-2016

Source: World Bank (2017a)

Figure 5 shows the percentage contribution to GDP of the main economic sectors in 2016 (based on

revised, but not final, GDP estimates). Agriculture (19%) was the single largest sector, followed by

transport and communications (17%), public services (14%), construction (14%), and financial services and

real estate (13%). Despite the importance of oil, gold and other minerals to exports, mining and quarrying

still only comprises 5% of GDP. The manufacturing sector is very limited, contributing just 5% of GDP.

Construction activity has grown substantially in the past few years, from 8.9% of GDP in 2011 to 13.7% in

2016.

Figure 5: Sectoral composition of GDP, 2016

Source: Ghana Statistical Services (2017)

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Agriculture Industry Services

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Mining4%

Manufacturing5%

Electricity & water2%

Construction14%

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Transport & communications

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Finance & real estate13%

Public services14%

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Sectoral growth rates

As Table 3 shows, the sectoral growth rates have varied greatly, both over time and across sectors, in

recent years. Mining and quarrying grew the fastest over the 10-year period 2007-2016 (26% per annum),

thanks to the advent of oil production. This sector was followed closely by information and

communication, which grew at an annual average rate of 21.6%. Other strong performers were

construction (12.1%), and finance and insurance (13.1%).The agriculture sector has grown at

comparatively slow rates of around 3-6% in recent years, but this is partly attributable to the steep decline

in international cocoa prices in the past year.

Table 3: Growth rates of Gross Domestic Product at constant 2006 prices (percent), 2013-2016

Sector 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average

2007-2016

Agriculture 5.7 4.6 2.8 3.0 3.7

Mining & quarrying 11.6 3.2 -6.1 -7.6 25.9

Manufacturing -0.5 -0.8 2.2 2.7 3.1

Electricity 16.3 0.3 -10.2 11.7 5.0

Water & sewerage -1.6 -1.1 20.0 -3.2 3.4

Construction 8.6 0.0 2.2 2.9 12.1

Wholesale & retail trade 14.5 1.6 9.7 3.1 8.5

Hotels & restaurants 24.6 -1.2 1.5 0.9 4.6

Transport & storage -0.5 0.3 3.0 2.2 5.1

Information & communication 24.3 38.4 21.6 21.7 21.6

Financial & insurance 23.2 22.9 3.5 3.6 13.1

Real estate & admin services -17.5 -1.5 7.7 3.8 4.2

Public administration 8.4 -4.7 1.4 2.2 5.8

Education 6.9 7.1 7.9 8.3 8.1

Health 7.8 -1.7 15.7 16.8 8.9

Other services 36.5 -1.6 -6.4 -5.2 7.7

GDP 7.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 6.8

Source: Ghana Statistical Services (2017)

Employment

Table 4 shows the employment status of all employed persons between the ages of 15 and 64 in Ghana

in 2010, according to the census undertaken in that year. Only 19% of the working age population were

employees, whereas 59% were self-employed without employees, and a further 4.8% were self-employed

with employees. These figures underscore the dominance of informal sector employment in Ghana,

assuming that most self-employed persons are in informal occupations, including small-scale agriculture

and urban informal activities such as trading. The agriculture sector accounts for roughly half of all

employment in Ghana (FAO, 2015).

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Table 4: Employment status of employed persons aged 15-64 years, 2010

Category of employment Number %

Employee 1 840 931 18.8

Self-employed without employee(s) 5 751 840 58.8

Self-employed with employee(s) 471 017 4.8

Casual worker 201 732 2.1

Contributing family worker 1 158 923 11.8

Apprentice 278 908 2.9

Domestic employee (Househelp) 62 832 0.6

Other 16 472 0.2

Total 9 782 655 100.0

Source: Ghana Statistical Services (2017)

According to figures drawn from the latest census, 6% of Ghana’s economically active population were

unemployed as of 2010 (Table 5). The unemployment rate was slightly higher for females (6.4%) than for

males (5.5%). These estimates should be considered in the light of the high degree of informality in the

Ghanaian labour market, as alluded to above. Thus many of the economically active are likely to be

engaged in subsistence or survivalist activities.

Table 5: Economic activity status of persons aged 15-64 years, 2010

Employed Unemployed Economically

active

Economically

inactive

Unemployment

rate (%)

Male 4 713 480 274 333 4 987 813 1 740 135 5.5

Female 4 943 699 337 187 5 280 886 2 032 059 6.4

Total 9 657 179 611 520 10 268 699 3 772 194 6.0

Source: Ghana Statistical Services (2017)

Fiscal sector

Tax revenue as a proportion of GDP has been on an upward trend over the past 15 years, rising from a

low of 12% in 2002 to a high of 19.6% in 2015 (see Figure 6). However, government expenditure has grown

even more rapidly as a percentage of GDP, from 16.2% in 2002 to 29.4% in 2014, before being curtailed

to 26.1% in 2016. The Ghanaian government has run persistent and generally growing budget deficits

during this period, with a deficit greater than 10% of GDP in 2010 and 2012-14. There was some effort

towards fiscal consolidation in 2015, with the deficit falling to -5.4% of GDP, but this lapsed again in 2016

(-8.9%). While great strides were made in the early 2000s to bring down the level of gross government

debt (from 112% of GDP in 2000 to 26.2% in 2006 – partly achieved through high rates of price inflation),

debt levels have subsequently trended upwards again, reaching 73.4% in 2016. The persistent large fiscal

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deficits and the rapid accumulation of debt in recent years are causes for concern in terms of fiscal

sustainability. Prudent fiscal management requires that any further increases in real expenditures be

directed towards productive investments that lay the foundation for future economic growth.

Figure 6: Government revenue, expenditure and debt

Source: IMF (2017)

Military spending accounted for 0.5% of GDP on average between 2007 and 2016, with a high of 0.8% in

2012. Health expenditure averaged 4.8% of GDP, while public expenditure on health was 3.3%. Research

and development spending comprised just 0.3% of GDP on average over the past decade. Expenditure on

education averaged 6.3% as a percentage of GDP. Compared to the averages for SSA, Ghana spent more

of its GDP on education, and less on health, R&D and the military (see Table 6). A greater budgetary

allocation to R&D expenditure would likely boost innovation and growth, as has happened in Kenya, for

example.

Table 6: Average expenditure on selected items for the period 2006-2016

Expenditure as a % of GDP Ghana Sub-Saharan Africa

Research and development expenditure 0.3 0.5

Military expenditure 0.5 1.4

Health expenditure 4.8 5.7

Government expenditure on education 6.3 3.9

Source: World Bank (2017a)

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Monetary and financial sector

Domestic credit extension to the private sector has grown rapidly over the past decade (32.8% per annum

on average), consequently rising from 11.1% of GDP in 2006 to 20.4% in 2015. The broad money supply

has grown at a similar pace, averaging 31.4% per annum over the past 10 years, taking it to 34% of GDP

in 2015. While such rapid growth in credit and money supply has facilitated the robust rate of economic

growth, it has also contributed to inflationary pressures.

Figure 7: Money supply and credit extension

Source: World Bank (2016a)

The rate of consumer price inflation averaged 13.7% over the past 10 years, but has climbed in recent

years from a low of 8.7% in 2011 to 17.5% in 2016. The Bank of Ghana has adjusted its monetary policy

interest rate in line with inflation, maintaining a positive real rate of interest since 2010 in an effort to

curb inflation. The spread between the monetary policy rate (MPR) and inflation widened to 8.9% in 2015,

although the MPR has subsequently been reduced several times and is current at 21% (October 2017).

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Figure 8: Consumer inflation and interest rate

Source: World Bank (2017a) and Bank of Ghana (2017)

The Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index (GSECI) has enjoyed a short bull run since the end of 2016,

having trended downwards over the preceding three years. This reflects positive confidence in the

economy since the last election, declining inflation and interest rates, and also broader improvements in

global economic conditions.

Figure 9: Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index

Source: Bloomberg 2017

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External sector

The dollar value of Ghana’s exports and imports were both on a rising trend from the early 2000s until

2012, whereafter they flattened out. Imports have consistently exceeded exports, implying a persistent

current account deficit, which has averaged 9.6% of GDP over the past decade. This is one of the major

weaknesses of the Ghanaian economy. However, the last few years have seen a significant decline in the

current account deficit, from 11.9% in 2013 to 7.5% of GDP in 2015.

Figure 10: Imports and exports (current US$)

Source: World Bank (2017a)

The prices of Ghana’s three main commodity exports have been volatile in recent years (Figure 11). Crude

oil prices were over $100/barrel when Ghana first started exporting oil, but crashed in 2014 to about half

of that level. Cocoa prices were strong in 2010-2011, dropped substantially for a couple of years before

recovering, and then fell by about a third during 2017 because of a global supply glut. Gold had a long

upswing from 2000 until 2011, but from 2013 lost more than a third of its value as jewellery demand in

China and India slackened.

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Figure 11: Prices of main export products

Source: World Bank (2017c)

Switzerland is Ghana’s largest export destination (17.5%), as the majority of Ghana’s raw cocoa bean

exports are processed in that country, where value added products such as the famous Swiss chocolates

are produced. Other major consumers of Ghana’s exports are India (14.6%), UAE (13.4), China (8.84%)

and Vietnam (5.2%) in 2016 (WITS, 2017). Total exports amounted to $10.7 billion in 2016. Ghana’s total

imports were valued at $11.4 billion in 2016, with the largest share (17.3%) sourced from China, followed

by the United Kingdom (9.7%), United States (7.8%), Belgium (5.1%) and India (4.6%).

Table 7: Top 5 export and import partners, 2016

Market US$ million % share Exporter US$ million % share

Switzerland 1 869 17.5 China 1 965 17.3

India 1 558 14.6 United Kingdom 1 107 9.7

U.A.E. 1 427 13.4 United States 882 7.8

China 942 8.8 Belgium 577 5.1

Vietnam 549 5.2 India 528 4.6

World 10 656 100 World 11 361 100

Source: WITS (2017)

Table 8 displays Ghana’s top five export and import products. The top five exports are gold, cocoa beans,

crude oil, cashew nuts and wood. The top import products are automobiles, rice, cement, diesel trucks

and printed matter. Clearly, Ghana’s economy would benefit greatly if it could add value to some of its

raw commodities, such as cocoa beans and crude oil.

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Table 8: Top 5 export and import products, 2016

Exports US$ million Imports US$ million

Gold 4 345 Automobiles 559

Cocoa beans 1 886 Rice 244

Crude oil 1 079 Cement 238

Cashew nuts 987 Diesel trucks 201

Wood 315 Printed matter 188

Source: WITS (2017)

Ghana’s current account balance has been in negative territory since 2004, with the deficit steadily

worsening since then and reaching -11.9% of GDP in 2013, subsequently abating to -7.5% in 2015 (Figure

12). This presents significant risks to the exchange rate and therefore also to domestic prices because of

the dependence on imports. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) picked up dramatically from 2007 as

foreign companies invested in the nascent oil industry, and has remained at over 6% of GDP since then.

Remittances were negligible until 2011, but since then have become a significant source of foreign

exchange, spiking to 13.3% of GDP in 2015. The real effective exchange rate index has weakened

considerably over the past decade, falling from 107 in 2007 to 70 in 2015, although it picked up in 2016

to a level of 81.

Figure 12: FDI, remittances, current account balance and exchange rate

Source: World Bank (2017a)

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Ghana’s currency, the Cedi, has weakened considerably against major international currencies over the

past few years (Figure 13). It fell from 2.1 Cedi/USD in December 2013 to 4.4 Cedi/USD in September 2017,

more than halving in value. The large current account deficit has been one of the big drivers of the

depreciating exchange rate.

Figure 13: Nominal exchange rates

Source: Bank of Ghana (2017)

Ghana’s stock of external debt declined dramatically in the early 2000s, from 131% of Gross National

Income (GNI) in 2003 to 18% of GNI in 2006, but since then debt has gradually risen to 56.3% in 2015

(Figure 14). This improved debt position was mirrored by an improvement in the ratio of total reserves to

external debt, from 5.5% in 2002 to 61% in 2008, although the ratio subsequently declined to 34% in 2013.

Ghana will need to carefully manage external debt commitments and ensure that they do not become too

onerous. Interest payments on external debt amounted to 1.2% of gross national income in 2015, thanks

to low prevailing international interest rates. Investor confidence in Ghana’s economy was clearly evident

in November 2017, when Ghana raised about $800 million in a local currency bond issuance to fund energy

infrastructure investment. Furthermore, the rating agency S&P gave Ghana a positive outlook (with a

credit rating of B-) on 6 October 2017 (Fitch last rated Ghana at B with a stable outlook on 12 May, while

Moody’s has rated Ghana at B3 with a stable outlook since September 2016). Nevertheless, there are

concerns about currency risk in the event of global financial market instability and capital flight from

frontier economies.

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Figure 14: External debt and foreign reserves

Source: World Bank (2017a)

Consumption, investment and savings

Private consumption expenditure grew at a robust annual rate averaging 5.3% between 2006 and 2014

(Figure 15). The share of consumption in GDP has gradually declined from 96.3% in 2005 to 84.3% in 2016,

with the savings rate rising commensurately. This represents a healthy rebalancing and lays the

foundation for increased investment.

Figure 15: Household consumption expenditure

Source: World Bank (2016a)

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Total investment (gross capital formation) as a percentage of GDP has been fluctuating markedly over the

past 15 years, ranging between a low of 20% in 2002 to a high of 32% in 2012 (Figure 16). The boom in

the oil sector is clearly visible from 2009-2012. Gross domestic savings rose dramatically from 2008 to

2012, partly as a result of new earnings from oil production.

Figure 16: Investment and savings

Source: World Bank (2017a)

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Business Environment Ghana rose to 108th position on the World Bank Group’s Ease of Doing Business ranking in 2017, up from

114th the previous year. This puts Ghana tenth in the ease of doing business rankings in sub-Saharan Africa.

In terms of individual doing business criteria within a regional context, Ghana performed particularly well

in “getting credit” (4th) and “registering property” (5th), but more relatively poorly in “trading across

borders” (29th) and “resolving insolvency” (35th). Ghana has been a pioneer on the continent in

establishing a collateral registry. As the World Bank (2017b: 54) reports:

“Ghana’s collateral registry reform project from 2008 to 2014 enabled the design and

implementation of the first modern collateral registry in Africa, opening the market for secured

transactions and collateral registry reforms in the region. Between its establishment in 2010 and

the end of 2015, the registry facilitated $1.3 billion in financing for small-scale businesses and $12

billion in total financing for the business sector overall using only movable assets as collateral for

loans. Women entrepreneurs have played an important role in this scheme—women borrowers

account for 40% of total registrations and more than $100 million in financing for this sector.”

Table 9: Ease of Doing Business rankings for top 20 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Country Global Rank

2016

Global Rank

2017

SSA Rank

2017

Mauritius 32 49 1

Rwanda 62 56 2

Botswana 72 71 3

South Africa 73 74 4

Kenya 108 92 5

Seychelles 95 93 6

Zambia 97 98 7

Lesotho 114 100 8

Namibia 101 108 9

Ghana 114 108 10

Swaziland 105 111 11

Uganda 122 115 12

Cabo Verde 126 129 13

Tanzania 139 132 14

Malawi 141 133 15

Mozambique 133 137 16

Burkina Faso 143 146 17

Côte d’Ivoire 142 142 18

The Gambia 151 145 19

Senegal 153 147 20

Source: World Bank (2016, 2017d)

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Governance & Political Stability Ghana scored 63.9 (out of 100) on the overall Ibrahim Index of African Governance in 2015, which placed

it 8th out of 54 African countries. Ghana ranked particularly high on Participation and Human Rights (4th)

and Safety and the Rule of Law (6th). Ghana’s score on the overall index has fallen by 2.1 points since 2006,

and by 4.1 points since 2011. Its scores on three of the four major sub-indices declined over the decade

2006-2015, the exception being a very slight improvement in Participation and Human Rights. Despite this

slippage, Ghana nonetheless remains one of the best governance performers on the continent, scoring

significantly better than the African average on all four major components of the IIAG.

Table 10: Ghana's position on the Ibrahim Index of African Governance, 2015

Ghana rank Ghana score

Africa average

score

Ghana trend

2006-2015

Overall index 8th 63.9 50.0 -2.1

Safety and the rule of law 6th 70.0 52.1 -2.6

Participation & Human Rights 4th 73.1 50.0 +0.1

Sustainable Economic Opportunity 15th 48.4 42.9 -4.2

Human Development 11th 64.2 55.0 -1.6

Source: Mo Ibrahim Foundation (2016)

Table 11 shows Ghana’s scores and rankings on the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators in

2016. Ghana’s best category was Voice and Accountability (0.64), where the country ranked in the 68th

percentile (100 being the top rank). Ghana was also above average on Rule of Law (55th percentile) and

Control of Corruption (51st), but performed less well on Political Stability, Regulatory Quality and

Government Effectiveness. Nonetheless, Ghana performs well compared to many of its African peers,

including Kenya.

Table 11: Worldwide Governance Indicators for Ghana, 2016

Category Score

(-2.5 to +2.5)

Percentile Rank

Ghana

Percentile Rank

Kenya

Voice and Accountability 0.64 67.5 41.9

Rule of Law 0.00 54.8 32.7

Regulatory Quality -0.23 45.7 41.8

Political Stability and Absence of

Violence/Terrorism

-0.16 40.0 9.5

Government Effectiveness -0.20 46.2 41.4

Control of Corruption -0.17 51.0 16.8

Source: World Bank (2017e)

23

Socioeconomic Welfare Table 12 presents key indicators of socioeconomic welfare for the most recent year available.

Table 12: Key socioeconomic indicators for Ghana and Sub-Saharan Africa

Socioeconomic Indicator Ghana Sub-Saharan

Africa

Year

Poverty headcount ratio (national poverty line)

- urban

- rural

24.2

10.6

37.9

2012

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) 41.0 2013

Income inequality (Gini coefficient) 42.8 2005

Unemployment rate (%)

- females

- males

5.8

6.2

5.4

7.4

8.5

6.4

2016

Youth unemployment rate (%)

- females

- males

11.5

13.0

10.1

12.9

14.9

11.4

2016

Infant mortality rate (per 1000) 42.8 56.4 2015

Life expectancy at birth (years)

- females

- males

62.4

63.4

61.4

59.9

61.6

58.3

2015

Residence (%)

- urban

- rural

54.7

45.3

38.3

61.7

2016

Adult literacy rate (%)

- females

- males

71.5

65.3

78.3

2010

Access to electricity (%)

- urban

- rural

78.3

90.8

63.0

37.4

68.9

19.9

2012

Access to clean fuels for cooking (%) 20.8 12.9 2014

Access to improved water source (%)

- urban

- rural

88.7

92.6

84.0

67.5

86.8

55.8

2015

Access to improved sanitation (%) 14.9

20.2

8.6

29.8

40.3

23.3

2015

Prevalence of undernourishment (%) 5.0 18.5 2015

Population living in slums (% of urban population) 37.9 55.3 2014

Source: World Bank (2017a)

24

According to the latest government estimates, the poverty headcount ratio was 24% in 2012, with a

substantially lower poverty rate in urban areas (10.6%) compared to rural areas (38%). The poverty rate

is substantially below the average of 41% for Sub-Saharan Africa. Income inequality is also a significant

challenge, with a Gini coefficient estimated at 42.8 in 2005. Some 38% of urban dwellers were living in

slums in 2014, which is considerably less than the proportion in SSA (55%). Life expectancy at birth stands

at 62 years, slightly above the average of 60 years for the SSA region. Youth unemployment is estimated

at 17.4%, with the rate slightly higher for females than for males. Slightly more than half of Ghana’s

population lives in urban areas, compared to 38% across SSA. The proportion of the Ghanaian population

with access to electricity (78%) and improved water sources (89%) are substantially above the regional

averages (37% and 68%, respectively), but access to improved sanitation is very limited (15%) and half the

regional average (30%). Some 21% of the population have access to clean cooking fuels, compared to 13%

in SSA. Ghana’s prevalence of undernourishment (21%) is slightly above the continental proportion (19%).

The estimates of unemployment rates from the International Labour Organisation do not conform to on-

the-ground observed realities.1

While Ghana is in most respects performing better than the regional average, these statistics nonetheless

underscore the need for Ghana to adopt an inclusive growth model that creates job opportunities,

especially for the youth, and thereby reduces poverty. This will require labour-intensive industrialisation

and economic diversification, complemented with appropriate skills development programmes.

Urbanisation

Like much of Sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana is undergoing a rapid process of urbanisation. According to the

World Development Indicators database, the proportion of Ghana’s population living in urban areas has

expanded from 31% in 1980 to 44% in 2000 and 55% in 2015 (World Bank 2017a). Ghana has among the

higher urbanisation rates in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ghana’s urban population grew by a multiple of 3.5

between 1984–2014, as a result of both population growth and rural-to-urban migration (World Bank,

2015). The country’s urban population has grown more rapidly in its smaller cities than in its larger ones,

such that the capital, Accra, has seen its share of the national population decline from 24% in 1984 to

16.6% in 2010. This urbanisation process presents positive opportunities for the country’s economic

development, as historically urbanisation and industrialisation have been closely correlated processes.

Urbanisation has helped to reduce poverty and develop human capital in Ghana (World Bank, 2015).

“Migration has enabled a structural transformation away from subsistence agriculture that has boosted

Ghana’s economy” (World Bank, 2015: 3).

However, rapid urbanisation also brings several challenges, such as high unemployment rates, the

development of slums, a mushrooming informal sector, growing inequality, inadequate infrastructure for

basic services and transport, and traffic congestion (Cira et al. 2016). For example, there was a 22.5

percentage point decline in access to piped water in Accra between 2000 and 2010 (World Bank, 2015).

Managing its urbanisation process in a planned fashion with a rapid rollout of public services and

infrastructure will be critical to Ghana’s successful transition to an upper-middle income country over the

coming decades.

1 Personal communication with the Economic Advisor to the Vice President.

25

Sectoral Issues

Agriculture

Agriculture is the largest sector of Ghana’s economy, contributing 19% of GDP in 2016. The country

produces various crops in different climatic zones, ranging from dry savannahs to wet forests. The main

crops produced for domestic consumption are cassava, yams and plantains, while the top export

commodities are cocoa beans and cashew nuts. Other cash crops include oil palm, cotton and coconut.

Agriculture in Ghana is largely rain-fed and subsistence-based, with simple technologies utilised to

produce 80% of total output (FAO, 2015). About half of Ghana’s workforce is employed in the agriculture

sector (FAO, 2015). Figure 17 shows the upward trends in the production of the main staple foods, with

especially strong growth in cassava output since 2006. Ghana also imports staple grains, such as rice (the

second largest import item). Overall, Ghana is a net food importer. The main import items are consumer

commodities such as rice, wheat, sugar and poultry. The cereal import dependency ratio was 29% in 2012

(FAOSTAT, 2017).

Figure 17: Production of main staple crops, 1991-2014

Source: FAOSTAT (2017)

Output of Ghana’s two main export crops, cocoa beans and cashew nuts, has also been rising steadily over

the past couple of decades (Figure 18). With a 19% share of global production, Ghana is the world’s second

largest producer of cocoa beans, after Côte d'Ivoire. Expanded production in these two countries in recent

years has contributed to a supply glut, which depressed cocoa prices.

0

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Figure 18: Production of main export crops, 1991-2014

Source: FAOSTAT (2017)

Infrastructure

The Government of Ghana has in recent years been on a drive to invest in infrastructure in a range of

sectors, including power generation, transport (roads, railways, ports and airports), and ICT. The Ghana

Investment Promotion Centre2 has been set up to promote investment, while the Ghana Infrastructure

Investment Fund (GIIF) was established to facilitate long-term financing for infrastructure projects,

especially in energy, transport and agriculture.

Ghana has two commercial ports: one at Tema in the east and the other at Takoradi in the west. The port

of Tema handles a wide range of cargo, including dry bulks, steel products, bagged cargo, newspapers,

vehicles and containers. There is also a terminal for crude oil and petroleum products. The Tema Port is

currently being expanded, and facilitates transhipments to Ghana’s landlocked neighbours. The smaller

Takoradi port was rehabilitated in the 1990s, and serves oil supply vessels amongst others. It is currently

being extended to cater for the growing needs of the oil industry. In addition, an inland port at Boankra

near Kumasi is currently under construction. This port will handle both road and rail traffic and service the

northern part of the country. 3

Ghana has positioned itself as a major airline hub in West Africa, with its Kotoka International Airport (KIA)

in Accra served by most international airlines that operate on the continent. KIA handles the largest

volume of cargo in the sub-region and is one of five countries in Africa that have achieved a Category One

rating from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). In June 2017 the Ghana Infrastructure

2 http://www.gipcghana.com/ 3 http://www.gipcghana.com/invest-in-ghana/why-ghana/infrastructure/harbours-infrastructure.html

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1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

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27

Investment Fund (GIIF) approved a US$30 million corporate loan to the Ghana Airports Company Limited

(GACL) for its Capital Investment Programme.4 The GACL investment programme includes the

construction of a new terminal at Kotoka International Airport (KIA) in Accra and the rehabilitation and

upgrade of other airports and aerodromes.

Ghana’s infrastructure development programme received a major fillip in June and July of 2017, when it

was announced that China would invest $19bn in the country’s project pipeline (Oxford Business Group,

2017). Some $15bn in financing is being provided under a commodity-swap arrangement, whereby China

will gain access to up to 5% of Ghana’s bauxite reserves, which are estimated to total some 960m tonnes,

worth about $460bn. About $10bn will be used to build an integrated aluminium refinery project as well

as a 1,400km railway to transport the bauxite from the mines to the refinery. Another $4bn will be

invested by China’s state-owned Sinohydro Corporation to develop energy and infrastructure projects,

such as a hydropower project at Pwalugu and several solar energy plants. In July, the Russian railway

company Geoservice inked an MoU with the Ghana Railway Development Authority to build a 947-km

railway line from Accra to Paga, among other routes. Furthermore, the Japan International Cooperation

Agency has provided a $100m development facility to Ghana to construct a 520-metre bridge over the

Volta River (Oxford Business Group, 2017).

Energy

Ghana relies heavily on oil for its energy supply; oil accounted for 47% of total primary energy supply

(TPES) in 2015. Biofuels and waste – mostly traditional fuels such as wood and charcoal – are still a very

important source of energy, especially in rural areas, and account for 37% of TPES. Gas (11%) and

hydropower (5%) make up the remaining components of TPES. Oil is used for transport and electricity

generation.

Figure 19: Shares of total primary energy supply, 2015

Source: International Energy Agency (2017)

4 http://www.ghwebs.com/giif

Oil47%

Gas11%

Hydro5%

Biofuels & waste37%

28

Ghana generates electricity mainly from three sources: hydropower (51%), gas (39%) and oil (10%). The

country uses its own gas resources to fuel gas-fired power plants, as well as imports from Nigeria. Total

installed power generation capacity is 3,656 megawatts (MW) and total generation was 11,491 gigawatt

hours (GWh) in 2015. Electricity consumption stood at 0.32 megawatt hours (MWh) per capita in 2015,

which is considerably lower than the 0.57 MWh average for Africa as a whole (IEA, 2017). By African

standards, a relatively high proportion (78%) of Ghana’s population has access to electricity, although the

figure is considerably higher in urban areas (91%) than in rural areas (63%).

Figure 20: Electricity generation by source, 2015

Source: IEA (2017)

Oil and Gas

In recent years, Ghana has begun producing oil and natural gas. The Jubilee oil field was discovered by

London-based Tullow Oil in 2007, and production began in 2010. Since then, the level of production has

ramped up to 107,000 b/d in 2015, although technical challenges experienced at the Jubilee field have

thus far thwarted attempts to reach the maximum anticipated production plateau of 120,000 b/d (EIA,

2016). Tullow Oil is currently developing new offshore fields, namely the Tweneboa, Enyenra, and

Ntomme (TEN) project, which is expected to yield peak production of 80,000 b/d of crude oil and 50

million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of natural gas (EIA, 2017). Ghana’s oil reserves are estimated at 0.66

billion barrels, which is modest compared to other West African oil producers.

Oil10%

Hydro51%

Gas39%

Solar PV0%

29

Figure 21: Petroleum consumption and production, 1990-2015

Source: Energy Information Administration (2017b)

Figure 21 shows Ghana’s historical production of crude oil and consumption of petroleum products.

Consumption has exhibited a gradual upward trend since the 1990s, in line with economic growth. As

noted earlier, significant production began in 2011 and quickly overtook the level of consumption. Thus

far, however, all of the crude oil production has been exported rather than being refined and consumed

domestically.

Commercial production of natural gas began at the Jubilee field in April 2015. The gas is delivered to an

onshore processing facility via pipeline from the Kwame Nkrumah FPSO. The gas feeds domestic power

plants. Gas production will ramp up when associated gas from the TEN project commences, and output

starts from non-associated gas fields at the Offshore Cape Three Point (OCTP) block, which includes the

Sankofa and Gye Nyame gas fields. These fields are estimated to contain 1.5 trillion cubic feet of gas-in-

place and roughly 500 million barrels of oil-in-place. The natural gas will augment supply to the power

stations, while the oil will be exported.

Ghana is home to a single oil refinery, the Tema refinery (TOR). The nameplate capacity is 45,000 b/d, but

throughput has been erratic and generally much lower than this in recent years due to operational

problems.

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30

Mining

Ghana’s mining industry accounts for 4% of the nation’s GDP, while minerals comprise about 37% of total

exports. Gold accounts for 90% of total mineral exports, although several other minerals are also mined,

including diamonds, bauxite, manganese, salt and silver. The country also has unexploited deposits of iron

ore, limestone, kaolin, feldspar and silica sands.5 In 2013, Ghana ranked among the world’s top 10

producers of gold and among the world’s top 15 producers of rough diamonds (USGS, 2016). Ghana is

Africa’s second largest gold producer, after South Africa, and produced 88 tonnes of gold in 2013. Several

major international mining companies operate in the country, including Anglogold Ashanti, Gold Fields

and Newmont Mining Corp.

Figure 22: Map of gold producing areas

Source: http://www.ghana-mining.org/GhanaIMS/

5 http://www.ghana-mining.org/GhanaIMS/

31

Tourism & hospitality

Table 13 displays tourism sector statistics, drawn from the Tourism Development Plan. The Plan targeted

over 1 million arrivals in 2014 and tourism receipts of over $2bn. The largest numbers of international

tourists come from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands. Nigeria accounts

for the highest number of regional visitors, followed by neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire and Togo.

Accommodation accounted for the largest portion of tourist spending in 2014 (29%), followed by “other

expenditures” (18%), food and beverages (14%) and shopping at informal markets (11%) (Table 14).

Table 13: Tourism sector statistics, 2011-2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Arrivals (‘000) 746.5 821.2 903.3 993.6 1,093.0

Percentage Change - 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Receipts (US $’ Million) 1,406.3 1,548.3 1,704.7 1,876.9 2,066.5

Percentage Change - 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1

Source: Ghana Tourism Authority

Table 14: Trend of tourist expenditure by percentage breakdown, 2012-2014

Tourist Expenditure Percent (%)

Local Transport (taxis, local flights, car rentals, etc) 8

Shopping at Formal Markets (gift stores etc ) 11

Shopping at Informal Markets (market, wayside areas) 11

Food and Beverage 14

Accommodation 29

Entertainment and Recreation 9

Other Expenditure 18

Source: Ghana Tourism Authority

Table 15: Trend of international tourist arrivals by purpose of visit, 2012-2014

Purpose of Visit Percentage

Business 23.0

Conference/Meetings 8.9

Study/Training 7.9

VFR 24.7

Medicals 1.0

Holiday 19.0

Transit 10.5

Others 5.0

Source: Ghana Tourism Authority

32

Hotel accommodation capacity has increased in recent years, notably in 2011 and 2014 (Figure 23). The

average occupancy rate for 5-star hotels was 63% in 2014, down from 70% in 2011-12. The occupancy

rate of 4-star hotels has also decreased, while that of 3-star hotels rose from 52% in 2010 to 63% in 2014.

Figure 23: Hotel accommodation, 2010-2014

Source: Ghana Tourism Authority

Table 16: Hotel room occupancy rates (%)

Category

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

5-Star 66.03 69.93 69.93 68.73 62.73

4-Star 80.88 69.66 69.66 72.42 60.75

3-Star 52.23 53.53 53.53 72.10 62.84

2-Star 42.58 48.42 48.42 57.24 49.08

*Provisional

Source: Ghana Tourism Authority

0

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35000

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50000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hotels Rooms Beds

33

Conclusion

Ghana has a dynamic economy with bright investment prospects in a range of sectors, including

agriculture, mining, oil and gas, electricity, and transport infrastructure. The economy has been growing

at robust rates for several decades, and has received a major boost from the exploitation of oil and gas

resources over the past few years. The country is well endowed with natural resources and is a significant

exporter of gold and cocoa. Ghana has made great strides in reducing poverty and has one of the highest

electrification rates in sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the Ghanaian economy faces some structural

weaknesses, including high and volatile price inflation, a persistently large fiscal deficit and consequently

rising levels of public debt, as well as ongoing current account deficits and exchange rate weakness. These

factors largely explain why Ghana retains a “highly speculative” investment rating from the three ratings

agencies. The manufacturing sector is still poorly developed, but the government is gradually putting in

place the kinds of infrastructure that will enable businesses to flourish. The stable political environment

and good governance track record also auger well for Ghana’s economic development and investment

climate.

34

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