macro economic indicators are showing signs of stability · macro economic indicators are showing...

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Macro economic indicators are showing signs of stability

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* Data available as on 31st Dec 2018. Source: Bloomberg

Indicator Current* Outlook

Inflation (CPI) 2.3% RBI’s focus on inflation is likely to

keep rates stable over the year Interest Rate (Repo Rate) 6.5%

Real Rate 4.2% Positive real rates

Crude (Brent $/bbl) 54.2 Falling crude has made the terms of

trade once again back in India's favor.

GDP (Annual Growth Rate) 7.1% Strong growth

Forex Reserves USD 393 bn

India’s strong external position BoP USD -1.9bn

CAD (as a % of GDP) -2.9%

RBI is targeting for neutral liquidity

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Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as on 31st Dec 2018.

OMOs and term repos helping offset the liquidity shortfall & controlling bond yields

Trailing Interbank Liquidity : expected to be in neutral zone RBI scaled up OMO purchases to neutralize liquidity deficit

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80

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Net Absorption(+)/Infusion(-) ofLiquidity, US$ bn

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

RBI increased OMO purchases to

INR 500 Bn in Dec-18; announced

purchases of INR 500 Bn for Jan-19

OMO, INR bn

We expect a stable rate scenario over the next few months

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Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as on 31st Dec 2018.

Eased inflation Operating rate close to Repo

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

Repo CCIL-CBLO Overnight Rate

2.33

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18

CPI - Combined Tri Party Repo

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

Repo

3 year AAA PSU

3 year G-Sec Yield

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

10 year G-Sec yield (%)

We prefer short end over longer end of the curve

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Source: Bloomberg, Data as on 31st Dec 2018.

Short end offers attractive spread over G-Sec & Repo Long end of to be range bound : Do not expect structural rally

Expect only tactical

opportunities going

forward

137 bps over

GSec

191 bps

over

Repo

Recent rally of >80bps

Key risks to watch

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Source: Bloomberg, Trading economics, India Ratings, Morgan Stanley, Axis MF Research, CLSA. Data available as on 31st Dec 2018.

Global growth, Crude , Food inflation and Fiscal are the key risks to watch for

Brent Crude Price ($/barrel) : Increased volatility Fiscal Deficit: GST trends weak; can lead to higher than expected fiscal gap

FY19 GDP Growth Revised Down to 7.2% due to Inflationary Headwinds Food Inflation

Impact of every $10 oil price

increase

CA Balance %

of GDP -0.3%

Inflation (CPI) 0.4%

Fiscal balance 0.05% of GDP. 55

65

75

85

95

Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18

Brent crude price ($/barrel)

6.5

7

7.5

8

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19F

Revised

Real GDP

4.7

3.26 2.81 2.8 3.1 2.91

1.37

0.29 0.51

-0.86

-2.61

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

Food disinflation has led headline

CPI to be significantly lower than

RBI's target

Fund Positioning

• An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below

rated corporate bonds (excluding AA+ rated corporate bonds)

• Typical maturity range of 2-4 years

• Core book (>70%) in corporate debt instruments while 20-30% is

managed dynamically based on market conditions

• Aims to capture higher yields / spread compression in 2-4 year

corporate bonds

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Strategy followed is based on the current market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the markets. Please refer to Scheme Information Document (SID) for detailed asset allocation and investment strategy.

Positioned in short to medium term space

Strategy followed is based on the current market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the markets.

Risk Management

• Tight Duration Range (3 years)

• Stringent credit review

• Control credit risk through diversification and strict limits on issuer weighting based on rating

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Credit Exposure: Diversification Is The Key To Risk Management

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Current Portfolio Allocation is based on the prevailing market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the fixed income markets.

* Internal limits. These limits are bound to change with increasing corpus.

• Based on Liquidity analysis, In-depth review of company financials and regular interactions with the management

• Very cautious at selecting sectors

• Diversifying the exposure to manage potential risk

• Pure accrual play with buy and hold approach

• No active duration call in lower rated papers

Well researched credit universe

Spread the exposure across

sectors

Lower maturity credits

Strict internal limits at issuer level and rating

level*

• AAA/A1+ : 12%

• AA+/AA: 7.5%

• AA- and Below : 5%

Axis Mutual Fund

Highly Diversified Corporate Bond Portfolio With Tight Position Limits

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Data is based on the current market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the markets. Please refer to the factsheet / visit www.axismf.com for full portfolio details of the scheme

Top 10 Non- AAA exposures (31st Dec 18)

Top 10 sub AAA holdings Rating Total

Nirma Limited CRISIL AA 3.3%

Coastal Gujarat Power Limited CARE AA(SO) 2.7%

PVR Limited CRISIL AA- 2.6%

Birla Corporation Limited ICRA AA 2.6%

Zenith Trust ICRA A(SO) 2.5%

JSW Techno Projects Management Limited BWR A(SO) 2.5%

Hinduja Leyland Finance Limited CARE AA- 2.5%

Renew Power Limited CARE A+ 2.4%

Suhani Trading And Investment Consultants Private Limited BWR A+(SO) 2.4%

Piramal Enterprises Limited ICRA AA 2.4%

Top 10 Non-AAA constitute 25.8 percent of the portfolio. Total non-AAA exposure is 71.1%

Strategy followed & Target Range is based on the current market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the markets. $AAA & Equivalent includes AAA/A1+-rated

papers.

Maturity Profile & Rating Transition

• Core allocation to short term corporate bonds across credit spectrum in 2-4 year space

• Reduced exposure to longer dated securities and shift to 1-3 year high rated and 18 – 36 months lower rated corporate bonds

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Rating 31st Dec 18 Target

Sovereign/

AAA$ 29% 30-40%

AA(+/-) 51% 50-60%

A(+/-) 20% 10-20%

29%

46%

18%

6%

1%

0-1 years 1-3 years 3-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years

Maturity Mix (31st Dec 18)

Key upgrades & downgrades in the portfolio since inception

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Source: ICRA, CRISIL. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

Upgrades Downgrades

Edelweiss Commodities Limited (CRISIL AA- to CRISIL AA) Vodafone India (IND AAA to IND AA+)

IIFL Finance Limited (CRISIL AA- to CRISIL AA) Tata Power Company Limited (ICRA AA to ICRA AA-)

Hinduja Leyland Finance Limited (CARE A+ to CARE AA-) IDFC Bank Limited (IND AAA to IND AA+;other rating ICRA AAA)

Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited (CRISIL AA+ to CRISIL AAA) JK Lakshmi Cement (CARE AA to CARE AA-)

Solstice Trust (ICRA A(SO) to ICRA A+(SO)) Hansdeep Industries & Trading Company Ltd (CARE AA (SO) to CARE AA- (SO))

Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Limited (ICRA AA to ICRA AA+) Bharti Airtel (CRISIL AA+ to CRISIL AA)

Yes Bank Limited CARE AA+ to CARE AAA (other rating ICRA AA+)

Ess Kay Fincorp Limited CARE BBB+ to CARE A- (other rating IND A (SO))

Jubilant Life Sciences Limited CRISIL AA (earlier rated IND AA-)

SREI Equipment Finance Limited CARE AA- to CARE AA

Tata Capital & Tata Capital Housing : CRISIL AA+ to CRISIL AAA

Solstice Trust : ICRA A+ to ICRA AA-

Piramal Housing and Capital :ICRA AA to ICRA AA+

Aditya Birla Housing Finance :ICRA AA+ to ICRA AAA

Jubilant Life Sciences: IND AA- to IND AA

Subros Limited: ICRA A+ to ICRA AA-

Zenith Trust: A-(SO) to ICRA A(SO)

Performance as on 31st Dec 2018

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Annexure for returns of schemes managed by fund manager

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Refer slide 15 for disclaimer.

Annexure for returns of schemes managed by fund manager

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Refer slide 15 for disclaimer.

Performance disclaimer

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#Scheme Performance may not be strictly comparable with that of its additional benchmark in view of hybrid nature of the scheme.

@@The performance data for 5 years period has not been provided for scheme/plan not in existence for 5 years. @The performance data for 3 years period

has not been provided for scheme/plan not in existence for 3 years.

Data as on December 31, 2018.

Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Calculations are based on Growth Option NAV. Since inception returns are calculated on Rs.

2026.8384/- for Gold ETF & Rs. 10/- for all other schemes. Different plans have different expense structure. Plan of the scheme for which performance is given

is indicated above. The above data excludes performance of Fixed Maturity Plans and all the schemes which have not completed a year. Top 3 and Bottom 3

schemes (based on 1 year performance) managed by Devang Shah has been provided herein.

Devang Shah is managing Axis Liquid Fund, Axis Dynamic Bond Fund, Axis Gilt Fund, Axis Strategic Bond Fund and Axis Short Term Fund and all Axis Hybrid

Funds since 5th November 2012 (since inception date for Axis Hybrid Funds launched after 5th November, 2012), Axis Credit Risk Fund and Axis Arbitrage

Fund since inception and Axis Treasury Advantage Fund and Axis Regular Saver Fund (Debt portion), Axis Gold Fund, Axis Gold ETF , all Axis Fixed Term

Plans since 7th June, 2016 (since inception date for Axis Fixed Term Plans launched after 7th June, 2016) and Axis Corporate Debt Fund since July 13th,

2017.

Product Labelling

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*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

Fund Name Riskometer Product Labelling

Axis Credit Risk Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly

investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds

(excluding AA+ rated corporate bonds)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*

• Stable returns in the short to medium term

• Investment in debt and money market instruments

across the yield curve and credit spectrum.

Axis Corporate Debt Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly

investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:

• Regular income over short to medium term

• Predominantly investing in corporate debt

Product Labelling

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*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

Fund Name Riskometer Product Labelling

Axis Hybrid Fund Series – 26,27,33 (42 months close ended debt scheme)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*

• Capital appreciation while generating income over

medium to long term.

• To Investment in debt and money market

Instruments as well as equity and equity related

Instruments

Axis Gold Fund (An open ended fund of fund scheme investing in

Axis Gold ETF)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*

• Capital Appreciation over medium to long term

• l Invests predominantly in Axis Gold ETF in order to

generate returns similar to the underlying fund,

subject to tracking error

Statutory Details and Risk Factors

Data updated as on 31st Dec 2018.

Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sector(s) / Stock(s) / Issuer(s) mentioned above are for the purpose of disclosure of the portfolio of the Scheme(s) and should not be construed as recommendation. The fund manager(s) may or may not choose to hold the stock mentioned, from time to time.

Statutory Details: Axis Mutual Fund has been established as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882, sponsored by Axis Bank Ltd. (liability restricted to Rs. 1 Lakh). Trustee: Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Ltd. Investment Manager: Axis Asset Management Co. Ltd. (the AMC). Risk Factors: Axis Bank Limited is not liable or responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operation of the scheme. This document represents the views of Axis Asset Management Co. Ltd. and must not be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Neither Axis Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Limited nor Axis Asset Management Company Limited, its Directors or associates shall be liable for any damages including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from the use of the information contained herein. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained herein. The AMC reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time.

Scheme specific risk factors: Apart from the risks associated with domestic investments, the scheme may invest in overseas markets which carry risks related to fluctuations in the foreign exchange rates, the nature of the securities market of the country, repatriation of capital due to exchange controls and political circumstances. Investors are requested to consult their financial, tax and other advisors before taking any investment decision(s). The material should not be construed as issued by Government of India or any of its authority. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

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Thank You