macro economic indicators are showing signs of stability · 2019-01-15 · macro economic...

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Macro economic indicators are showing signs of stability

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* Data available as on 31st Dec 2018. Source: Bloomberg

Indicator Current* Outlook

Inflation (CPI) 2.3% RBI’s focus on inflation is likely to

keep rates stable over the year Interest Rate (Repo Rate) 6.5%

Real Rate 4.2% Positive real rates

Crude (Brent $/bbl) 54.2 Falling crude has made the terms of

trade once again back in India's favor.

GDP (Annual Growth Rate) 7.1% Strong growth

Forex Reserves USD 393 bn

India’s strong external position BoP USD -1.9bn

CAD (as a % of GDP) -2.9%

RBI is targeting for neutral liquidity

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Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as on 31st Dec 2018.

OMOs and term repos helping offset the liquidity shortfall & controlling bond yields

Trailing Interbank Liquidity : expected to be in neutral zone RBI scaled up OMO purchases to neutralize liquidity deficit

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Net Absorption(+)/Infusion(-) ofLiquidity, US$ bn

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

RBI increased OMO purchases to

INR 500 Bn in Dec-18; announced

purchases of INR 500 Bn for Jan-19

OMO, INR bn

We expect a stable rate scenario over the next few months

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Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as on 31st Dec 2018.

Eased inflation Operating rate close to Repo

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

Repo CCIL-CBLO Overnight Rate

2.33

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18

CPI - Combined Tri Party Repo

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

Repo

3 year AAA PSU

3 year G-Sec Yield

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

10 year G-Sec yield (%)

We prefer short end over longer end of the curve

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Source: Bloomberg, Data as on 31st Dec 2018.

Short end offers attractive spread over G-Sec & Repo Long end of to be range bound : Do not expect structural rally

Expect only tactical

opportunities going

forward

137 bps over

GSec

191 bps

over

Repo

Recent rally of >80bps

Key risks to watch

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Source: Bloomberg, Trading economics, India Ratings, Morgan Stanley, Axis MF Research, CLSA. Data available as on 31st Dec 2018.

Global growth, Crude , Food inflation and Fiscal are the key risks to watch for

Brent Crude Price ($/barrel) : Increased volatility Fiscal Deficit: GST trends weak; can lead to higher than expected fiscal gap

FY19 GDP Growth Revised Down to 7.2% due to Inflationary Headwinds Food Inflation

Impact of every $10 oil price

increase

CA Balance %

of GDP -0.3%

Inflation (CPI) 0.4%

Fiscal balance 0.05% of GDP. 55

65

75

85

95

Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18

Brent crude price ($/barrel)

6.5

7

7.5

8

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19F

Revised

Real GDP

4.7

3.26 2.81 2.8 3.1 2.91

1.37

0.29 0.51

-0.86

-2.61

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

Food disinflation has led headline

CPI to be significantly lower than

RBI's target

Axis Strategic Bond Fund: Current Portfolio Strategy

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Allocation & maturity is based on the current market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the markets. This should not be taken as an indication of the returns that maybe generated by the fund and the securities bought by the fund may or may not be held till their respective maturities. The calculation is based on the invested corpus. #High Rated Papers refers to instruments which are rated AAA/A1+ & equivalent or G-sec

Core book of Corporate Bonds

Expected Credit Quality

30% : AAA/A1+

70% : Sub AAA

Medium term horizon Invests across rating

curve

Average Maturity in the range of

2-4 years

Rating Mix

Rating 31st Dec 18 Target

Sovereign/ AAA & equivalent# 40.8% 30-40%

AA(+/-) 42.3% 50-60%

A(+/-) 16.9% 10-20%

Risk Management

• Tight Duration Range (3 years)

• Stringent credit review

• Control credit risk through diversification and strict limits on issuer weighting based on rating

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Strategy followed is based on the current market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the markets.

Axis Mutual Fund

Credit Exposure: Diversification Is The Key To Risk Management

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Current Portfolio Allocation is based on the prevailing market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the fixed income markets.

* Internal limits. These limits are bound to change with increasing corpus.

• Based on Liquidity analysis, In-depth review of company financials and regular interactions with the management

• Very cautious at selecting sectors

• Diversifying the exposure to manage potential risk

• Pure accrual play with buy and hold approach

• No active duration call in lower rated papers

Well researched credit universe

Spread the exposure across

sectors

Lower maturity credits

Strict internal limits at issuer level and rating

level*

• AAA/A1+ : 12%

• AA+/AA: 7.5%

• AA- and Below : 5%

Axis Mutual Fund

Key Portfolio Statistics – 31st Dec 18

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Data is based on the current market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the markets. Please refer to the factsheet / visit www.axismf.com for full portfolio details of the scheme. $AAA & Equivalent includes AAA/A1+-rated papers.

Features Axis Strategic Bond Fund

Category Medium Duration Fund

Average Maturity 2.2 years

Modified Duration 1.7 years

Macaulay Duration 1.8 years

YTM (%) 9.85%

Asset Mix

Money Market Instruments: 7.2%

Corporate Bond: 81.8%

G-Sec: 3.8%

PTC: 7.2%

Rating Mix

Sovereign/ AAA & equivalent$: 40.8%

AA+: 3.8%

AA: 24.1%

AA-: 14.4%

A+: 12.1%

A: 4.2%

A-: 0.6%

Maturity Buckets Axis Strategic Bond Fund

0-1 years 29%

1-3 years 46%

3-5 years 18%

5-10 years 6%

10-15 years 1%

Axis Mutual Fund

Tight Position Limits Keep The Portfolio Well Diversified (31st Dec 18)

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Data is based on the current market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the markets. Please refer to the factsheet / visit www.axismf.com for full portfolio details of the scheme.

Top 10 sub AAA holdings Exposure (%) Rating

Renew Power Limited CARE A+ 3.0%

Coastal Gujarat Power Limited CARE AA(SO) 2.9%

Suhani Trading And Investment Consultants Private Limited BWR A+(SO) 2.3%

JSW Techno Projects Management Limited BWR A(SO) 2.1%

JK Lakshmi Cement Limited CARE AA- 2.0%

IndoStar Capital Finance Limited CARE AA- 2.0%

Nirma Limited CRISIL AA 2.0%

Muthoot Finance Limited CRISIL AA 2.0%

JM Financial Products Limited CRISIL AA 1.9%

Bank of Baroda CARE AA 1.8%

Top 10 sub-AAA constitute 22.1 percent of the portfolio, Total sub-AAA constitute to 59.2 percent

Axis Mutual Fund

Key upgrades & downgrades in the portfolio since inception

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Source: ICRA, CRISIL. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

Upgrades Downgrades

Edelweiss Commodities Limited (CRISIL AA- to CRISIL AA) Vodafone India (IND AAA to IND AA+)

IIFL Finance Limited (CRISIL AA- to CRISIL AA) Tata Power Company Limited (ICRA AA to ICRA AA-)

Hinduja Leyland Finance Limited (CARE A+ to CARE AA-) IDFC Bank Limited (IND AAA to IND AA+;other rating ICRA AAA)

Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited (CRISIL AA+ to CRISIL AAA) JK Lakshmi Cement (CARE AA to CARE AA-)

Solstice Trust (ICRA A(SO) to ICRA A+(SO)) Hansdeep Industries & Trading Company Ltd (CARE AA (SO) to CARE AA- (SO))

Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Limited (ICRA AA to ICRA AA+) Bharti Airtel (CRISIL AA+ to CRISIL AA)

Yes Bank Limited CARE AA+ to CARE AAA (other rating ICRA AA+)

Ess Kay Fincorp Limited CARE BBB+ to CARE A- (other rating IND A (SO))

Jubilant Life Sciences Limited CRISIL AA (earlier rated IND AA-)

SREI Equipment Finance Limited CARE AA- to CARE AA

Tata Capital & Tata Capital Housing : CRISIL AA+ to CRISIL AAA

Solstice Trust : ICRA A+ to ICRA AA-

Piramal Housing and Capital :ICRA AA to ICRA AA+

Aditya Birla Housing Finance :ICRA AA+ to ICRA AAA

Jubilant Life Sciences: IND AA- to IND AA

Subros Limited: ICRA A+ to ICRA AA-

Zenith Trust: A-(SO) to ICRA A(SO)

Performance as on Nov 30th, 2018

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Performance of other schemes managed by scheme fund manager is overleaf

Axis Mutual Fund

Annexure for returns of schemes managed by fund manager

14 Axis Mutual Fund

Refer slide 16 for disclaimer.

Annexure for returns of schemes managed by fund manager

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Refer slide 16 for disclaimer.

Performance Disclaimer

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#Scheme Performance may not be strictly comparable with that of its additional benchmark in view of hybrid nature of the scheme.

@@The performance data for 5 years period has not been provided for scheme/plan not in existence for 5 years. @The performance

data for 3 years period has not been provided for scheme/plan not in existence for 3 years. Data as on Dec 31, 2018. Past

performance may or may not be sustained in future. Calculations are based on Growth Option NAV. Since inception returns are

calculated on Rs. 2026.8384/- for Gold ETF & Rs.10/- for all other schemes. Different plans have different expense structure. Plan of the

scheme for which performance is given is indicated above. The above data excludes performance of Fixed Maturity Plans and all the

schemes which have not completed a year. Top 3 and Bottom 3 schemes (based on 1 year performance) managed by Devang Shah

has been provided herein.

Devang Shah is managing Axis Liquid Fund, Axis Dynamic Bond Fund, Axis Gilt Fund , Axis Strategic Bond Fund and Axis Short Term

Fund and all Axis Hybrid Funds since 5th November 2012 (since inception date for Axis Hybrid Funds launched after 5th November,

2012), Axis Credit Risk Fund and Axis Arbitrage Fund since inception and Axis Treasury Advantage Fund and Axis Regular Saver (Debt

portion), Axis Gold Fund, Axis Gold ETF , all Axis Fixed Term Plans since 7th June, 2016 (since inception date for Axis Fixed Term Plans

launched after 7th June, 2016) and Axis Corporate Debt Fund since July 13th, 2017.

Product Labelling

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*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

Fund Name Riskometer Product Labelling

Axis Strategic Bond Fund (An open ended medium term debt scheme

investing in instruments such that the Macaulay

duration of the portfolio is between 3 years to 4

years)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*

• Optimal returns over medium term

• Investment in diversified portfolio of debt and money

market securities to generate optimal risk adjusted

returns while maintaining liquidity.

Axis Corporate Debt Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly

investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:

• Regular income over short to medium term

• Predominantly investing in corporate debt

Product Labelling

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*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

Fund Name Riskometer Product Labelling

Axis Hybrid Fund Series – 26,27,33 (42 months close ended debt scheme)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*

• Capital appreciation while generating income over

medium to long term.

• To Investment in debt and money market

Instruments as well as equity and equity related

Instruments

Axis Gold Fund (An open ended fund of fund scheme investing in

Axis Gold ETF)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*

• Capital Appreciation over medium to long term

• l Invests predominantly in Axis Gold ETF in order to

generate returns similar to the underlying fund,

subject to tracking error

Statutory Details and Risk Factors

Data updated as on 31st Dec 2018.

Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sector(s) / Stock(s) / Issuer(s) mentioned above are for the purpose of disclosure of the portfolio of the Scheme(s) and should not be construed as recommendation. The fund manager(s) may or may not choose to hold the stock mentioned, from time to time.

Statutory Details: Axis Mutual Fund has been established as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882, sponsored by Axis Bank Ltd. (liability restricted to Rs. 1 Lakh). Trustee: Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Ltd. Investment Manager: Axis Asset Management Co. Ltd. (the AMC). Risk Factors: Axis Bank Limited is not liable or responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operation of the scheme. This document represents the views of Axis Asset Management Co. Ltd. and must not be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Neither Axis Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Limited nor Axis Asset Management Company Limited, its Directors or associates shall be liable for any damages including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from the use of the information contained herein. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained herein. The AMC reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time.

Scheme specific risk factors: Apart from the risks associated with domestic investments, the scheme may invest in overseas markets which carry risks related to fluctuations in the foreign exchange rates, the nature of the securities market of the country, repatriation of capital due to exchange controls and political circumstances. Investors are requested to consult their financial, tax and other advisors before taking any investment decision(s). The material should not be construed as issued by Government of India or any of its authority. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

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