lumber sales ytd 2012 (dec 2012)

1 © BMI-BRSCU

Towards

Making sense of the Building Industry:

Lumber SalesDr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

January 2013

THE STRATEGIC FORUMA place of assembly

for strategic conversations

THE STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

BMI

Studium Ad Prosperandum

Voluntas in Conveniendum

BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc

Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

•

BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

•

BMI•

BMI•

BMI•

BMI



BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc

Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

•

BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

•

BMI•

BMI•

BMI•

BMI•

BMI•

BMI•

2

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: JAN 2013: CEMENT (SEPT 2012) AND LUMBER SALES (DEC 2012),

BPP AND BC (NOV 2012), .

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (TONNES) ENDED 2011 AT +3,35% COMPARED TO 2010

Cumulative Y/Y January 2012 for Domestic Cement Sales recorded an increase of + 21,69% compared to 2011, followed by Cumulative Y/Y increase of +13,74% in February and +6,71% in March, +6,77% in April, +6,81% in May, +6,84% in June, +5,17% in July, +3,91% in August and +2,88% in September.

The MAT Forecast for Domestic Cement Sales shows growth of + 2,13% for 2012 vs 2011.

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cum YTD sales: 2011 638 749 1 462 683 2 471 585 3 287 922 4 200 506 5 197 006 6 170 010 7 184 949 8 289 826 9 345 495 10 486 74311 234 427

Cum YTD sales 2012 & MAT Forecast 779 003 1 663 703 2 637 349 3 510 506 4 486 609 5 552 469 6 488 841 7 465 568 8 528 848 9 584 517 10 725 76511 473 449

% Change Cum YTD 2012 VS 2011 21.96% 13.74% 6.71% 6.77% 6.81% 6.84% 5.17% 3.91% 2.88% 2.56% 2.28% 2.13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

To

nn

es

Domestic Cement Sales: Cumulative YTD 2012 vs 2011 and MAT Forecast 2012(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cu

mu

liti

ve

% C

han

ge:

YT

D 2

01

2 v

s 2

01

1

MAT FORECAST

Publication of Cement Statistics stopped on 3

April 2012 by Competition Commission.

Quarterly Statistics, delayed by 3 months will

be published in future. Extrapolation by BMI-

BRSCU.

ACTUAL

3

LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (M3) ENDED 2011 AT +14,6% COMPARED TO 2010.

Cumulative Y/Y January 2012 for Local Building Lumber Sales recorded a decrease of - 4,10% compared to 2011, followed by an increase of + 1,60% in February 2012, + 5,24% in March, + 5,98% in April, + 5,87% in May,

+ 3,29% in June, + 2,19% in July, +2,39% in August, -0,10% in September, + 1,07% in October, +1,82% in Nov and +0,38% in Dec. With 12 months passed in 2012, it is evident that the growth in Local Building Lumber Sales is subdued compared to the buoyant growth in 2011.

Local Building Lumber Sales (in m3) recorded growth of + 0,38% for 2012 vs 2011.



2011 Cum Y/Y Local Building 83 590 174 204 265 674 345 749 437 896 537 281 628 339 729 731 837 356 933 839 1 036 3 1 109 9


% Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2012 vs 2011 -4.10% 1.60% 5.24% 5.98% 5.87% 3.29% 2.19% 2.39% -0.10% 1.07% 1.82% 0.38%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

sLumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec)

(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Lo

ca

l B

uil

din

g:

20

12

vs

20

11

4

TOTAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 0,83% COMPARED TO 2010.

CUMULATIVE Y/Y building plans passed (BPP) by larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD November 2012 increased by + 0,23% compared with November 2011. • Additions and Alterations BPP decreased (- 0,31%),• Residential BPP increased (+ 0,08%),• Non-Residential BPP increased (+ 1,62%). • Longer term trends in BPP reflect a slow growth scenario


The MAT Forecast for Residential BPP (including A&A) (in m2) shows marginal decline of – 0,30%, Non Residential BPP shows growth of + 1,62% and Total BPP shows marginal growth of + 0,29% for 2012 vs 2011.

m2 R*1000

-184 726 -16.95% 7 105 0.26%

146 514 3.90% 2 175 391 11.52%

52 722 3.76% 1 278 237 17.89%

-9 537 -10.22% -13 094 -2.94%

-33 924 -1.07% 779 083 5.16%

-28 951 -0.30% 4 226 722 9.53%

m2 R*1000

144 988 25.68% 1 152 366 30.68%

9 233 1.41% 134 716 3.66%

18 116 1.25% 459 054 7.74%

-125 083 -25.61% -739 930 -28.04%

21 884 1.99% 731 420 11.68%

69 138 1.62% 1 737 626 7.80%

40 187 0.29% 5 964 348 8.96%TOTAL

* Nov 2012

Shopping

Industrial and warehouse

Other buildings

Additions and alterations

TOTAL

* Nov 2012

Office and banking

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

Flats and townhouses

Other buildings

Additions and alterations

TOTAL

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): SOUTH AFRICA: MAT* 2012 VS 2011

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): SOUTH AFRICA: MAT* 2012 VS 2011

5

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 7,50% COMPARED TO 2010.

CUMULATIVE Y/Y Total buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD November 2012 decreased by – 1,23% compared with November 2011.

• Non-residential BC increased (+ 15,71%),• Residential BC increased (+ 0,45%) and• Additions and Alterations BC decreased (- 18,03%).

After these first 11 months results it is our view that the decline in Private Residential and Non Residential BC has been arrested and will show moderate growth or decline in 2012.

The MAT Forecast for Residential BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows marginal decline of -3,75%.


6

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 7,50% COMPARED TO 2010.




The MAT Forecast for Non Residential BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows increase of + 5,28% 2012 vs 2011.


7

TOTAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 7,50% COMPARED TO 2010.




The MAT Forecast for Total BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows decline of – 1,13% for 2012 vs2011.


8


The MAT Forecast for Non Residential BC (including A&A) (in m2)shows increase of + 5,11% 2012 vs 2011.


NR Total: Cum MAT FC 2012: m2 191 336 431 549 643 784 994 828 1 301 855 1 497 235 1 657 694 1 875 385 2 197 376 2 352 147 2 638 658 2 827 961

NR Total: Cum Actual 2011: m2 146 339 377 453 657 760 893 943 1 123 484 1 400 138 1 607 932 1 762 745 1 957 877 2 214 575 2 501 086 2 690 389

NR Total: Cum MAT FC 2012 vs 2011: % 30.75% 14.33% -2.12% 11.29% 15.88% 6.93% 3.09% 6.39% 12.23% 6.21% 5.50% 5.11%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

% D

iffe

ren

ce:

Cu

m A

ctu

al 2011 v

s F

ore

cast

2012

Sq

uare

Metr

es

(m

2)

NON RES TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: CUM ACTUAL 2011 VERSUS MAT FC 2012 BY MONTH: TOTAL RSA (OCT)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECASTCUM ACTUAL

9

TOTAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 7,50% COMPARED TO 2010.

CUMULATIVE Y/Y buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) forYTD October 2012 increased by – 2,02% compared with October 2011.

• Non-residential BC increased (+ 14,28%), • Residential BC decreased (- 1,02%) and• Additions and Alterations BC decreased (- 16,90%).


The MAT Forecast for Total BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows decline of – 1,68% for 2012 vs2011.


10


The MAT Forecast for Total BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows decline of – 1,13% for 2012 vs 2011.


Res & NR Total: Cum MAT FC 2012: M2 599 109 1 335 014 2 129 967 2 954 585 3 784 933 4 505 436 5 203 919 6 007 366 6 830 135 7 527 057 8 457 353 9 173 669

Res & NR Total: Cum Actual 2011: M2 525 633 1 282 340 2 239 897 2 953 942 3 707 281 4 602 871 5 372 891 6 033 699 6 849 005 7 681 415 8 562 469 9 278 785

Res & NR Total: % Difference Cum Actual 2011 vs FC2012: M2

13.98% 4.11% -4.91% 0.02% 2.09% -2.12% -3.14% -0.44% -0.28% -2.01% -1.23% -1.13%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

9 000 000

10 000 000

SQ

UA

RE

ME

TR

ES

RES & NON RES TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: CUM ACTUAL 2011 VERSUS MAT FC 2012 BY MONTH: (M2) (NOV)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: Buildings Completed Total RSA; Chart BC57)

% D

iffe

ren

ce:

Cu

m A

ctu

al

201

1 v

s F

ore

cas

t 2

012

MAT FORECASTCUM ACTUAL

11


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%P

erc

en

tag

e

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

Total Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 7.51% -0.16% -6.06% -4.87% -3.90% -6.07% -5.81% -3.25% -5.28% -5.34% -4.08% -3.75%

Total Non Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 30.75% 14.33% -2.12% 11.29% 15.88% 6.93% 3.09% 6.39% 12.23% 6.21% 5.68% 5.28%

Total BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 13.98% 4.11% -4.91% 0.02% 2.09% -2.12% -3.14% -0.44% -0.28% -2.01% -1.23% -1.13%

Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) 21.96% 13.74% 6.71% 6.77% 6.81% 6.84% 5.17% 3.91% 2.88% 2.56% 2.28% 2.13%

Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) -4.10% 1.60% 5.24% 5.98% 5.87% 3.29% 2.19% 2.39% -0.10% 1.07% 1.82% 0.38%

Total Residential BPP (m2) 14.75% 11.39% -6.79% -4.93% -3.39% -5.95% -5.84% -4.03% -3.40% -0.62% -0.33% -0.30%

Total Non Residential BPP (m2) -33.37%-13.28%-17.16% -2.20% 0.09% 3.38% 4.33% 4.85% 1.64% -0.99% 1.78% 1.62%

Total Building BPP (m2) -3.83% 2.96% -9.87% -4.15% -2.37% -3.25% -2.97% -1.51% -1.91% -0.74% 0.32% 0.29%

Cumulative YTD Buildings Completed (BC), Domestic Cement Sales and Local Building Lumber Sales: % Change by Sector: January - Dec 2012

(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST

Publication of Cement Statistics

stopped on 3 April 2012 by

Competition Commission.

Quarterly Statistics, delayed by 3

months will be published in

future.

CUM ACTUAL

12 © BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY OF THE LUMBER MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (December)

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000Jan 0

1

Ma

y 0

1

Sep 0

1

Jan 0

2

Ma

y 0

2

Sep 0

2

Jan 0

3

Ma

y 0

3

Sep 0

3

Jan 0

4

Ma

y 0

4

Sep 0

4

Jan 0

5

Ma

y 0

5

Sep 0

5

Jan 0

6

Ma

y 0

6

Sep 0

6

Jan 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Sep 0

7

Jan 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Sep 0

8

Jan 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Sep 0

9

Jan 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Sep 1

0

Jan 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Sep 1

1

Jan 1

2

Ma

y 1

2

Sep 1

2

Cu

bic

Metr

es

Lumber Sales by End-use: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Local Building Local Furniture Local Packaging & Other Overseas Export

TOTAL 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Building) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (TOTAL)

13 © BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY OF THE LUMBER MARKET: 2001- MAT 2012 (DECEMBER)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Overseas Export 115 349 238 159 163 088 104 013 48 387 29 940 15 822 8 439 5 303 5 995 3 885 5 838

Packaging & Other 242 878 278 066 250 003 263 842 310 282 297 990 292 108 226 276 169 006 163 485 202 307 225 647

Re-manufacturing 352 020 501 267 398 789 427 826 433 190 332 829 302 934 255 647 222 954 274 519 208 402 187 096

Local Building 477 837 525 727 813 183 1 013 571 1 149 592 1 122 607 1 128 010 1 108 166 903 458 968 525 1 109 928 1 114 120

-

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

sLumber Sales by End-use: 2001 - MAT* Dec 2012: Cubic Metres

(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

14 © BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY OF THE LUMBER MARKET: 2011

15 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER MARKET: JANUARY 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000Jan 0

1

Apr

01

Jul 01

Oct 01

Jan 0

2

Apr

02

Jul 02

Oct 02

Jan 0

3

Apr

03

Jul 03

Oct 03

Jan 0

4

Apr

04

Jul 04

Oct 04

Jan 0

5

Apr

05

Jul 05

Oct 05

Jan 0

6

Apr

06

Jul 06

Oct 06

Jan 0

7

Apr

07

Jul 07

Oct 07

Jan 0

8

Apr

08

Jul 08

Oct 08

Jan 0

9

Apr

09

Jul 09

Oct 09

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Jul 10

Oct 10

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 11

Oct 11

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 12

Cu

bic

Metr

es

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Local Building 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Building)

16 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL BUILDING MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2011 VS 2010(Jan - December)


2010 Cum Y/Y Local Building 62 111 145 62 226 32 306 35 389 02 464 88 542 71 636 69 712 76 807 35 908 24 968 52

2011 Cum Y/Y Local Building 83 590 174 20 265 67 345 74 437 89 537 28 628 33 729 73 837 35 933 83 1 036 1 109

% Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2011 vs 2010- 34.58% 19.62% 17.38% 12.86% 12.56% 15.57% 15.78% 14.61% 17.48% 15.67% 14.10% 14.60%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2011 vs 2010(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Lo

ca

l B

uil

din

g:

20

10

vs

20

09

17 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL BUILDING MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2012 VS 2011(DECEMBER)




% Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2012 vs 2011 -4.10% 1.60% 5.24% 5.98% 5.87% 3.29% 2.19% 2.39% -0.10% 1.07% 1.82% 0.38%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Lo

ca

l B

uil

din

g:

20

12

vs

20

11

18 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL FURNITURE MARKETJANUARY 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

Jan

01

Ma

y 0

1

Sep

01

Jan

02

Ma

y 0

2

Sep

02

Jan

03

Ma

y 0

3

Sep

03

Jan

04

Ma

y 0

4

Sep

04

Jan

05

Ma

y 0

5

Sep

05

Jan

06

Ma

y 0

6

Sep

06

Jan

07

Ma

y 0

7

Sep

07

Jan

08

Ma

y 0

8

Sep

08

Jan

09

Ma

y 0

9

Sep

09

Jan

10

Ma

y 1

0

Sep

10

Jan

11

Ma

y 1

1

Sep

11

Jan

12

Ma

y 1

2

Sep

12

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Furniture: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Local Furniture 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Furniture)

19 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL FURNITURE MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2011 vs 2010 (Jan- December)


2010 Cum Y/Y Local Furniture 19 154 46 610 76 639 99 561 122 215142 138173 714196 548 215 853236 106259 558274 519

2011 Cum Y/Y Local Furniture 20 061 42 300 60 613 75 760 92 097 110 302125 289142 265 161 214178 319197 576208 402

% Change Cum Y/Y: Local Furniture: 2011 vs 2010 4.74% -9.25% -20.91%-23.91%-24.64%-22.40%-27.88%-27.62%-25.31%-24.48%-23.88%-24.08%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Furniture: Cum Y/Y 2011 vs 2010(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Lo

ca

l F

urn

itu

re:

20

11

vs

20

10

20 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL FURNITURE LUMBER MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER)


2011 Cum Y/Y Local Furniture 20 061 42 300 60 613 75 760 92 097 110 30 125 28 142 26 161 21 178 31 197 57 208 40

2012 Cum Y/Y Local Furniture 13 146 30 173 47 267 62 748 80 509 98 675 114 42 132 60 145 37 163 10 180 07 187 09

% Change Cum Y/Y: Local Furniture: 2012 vs 2011 -34.47% -28.67% -22.02% -17.18% -12.58% -10.54% -8.68% -6.79% -9.82% -8.53% -8.86% -10.22%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Furniture: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Lumber Sales by End-use; Chart 10(8))

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Lo

ca

l F

urn

itu

re:

20

12

vs

20

11

21 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL PACKAGING MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

Jan 0

1

Ma

y 0

1

Sep 0

1

Jan 0

2

Ma

y 0

2

Sep 0

2

Jan 0

3

Ma

y 0

3

Sep 0

3

Jan 0

4

Ma

y 0

4

Sep 0

4

Jan 0

5

Ma

y 0

5

Sep 0

5

Jan 0

6

Ma

y 0

6

Sep 0

6

Jan 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Sep 0

7

Jan 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Sep 0

8

Jan 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Sep 0

9

Jan 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Sep 1

0

Jan 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Sep 1

1

Jan 1

2

Ma

y 1

2

Sep 1

2

Cu

bic

Metr

es

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Packaging & Other: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Local Packaging & Other 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Packaging & Other)

22 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL PACKAGING MARKET: Y/Y 2011 VS 2010 (DECEMBER)


2009 Cum Y/Y Local Packaging & Other 8 684 23 926 37 438 49 778 65 384 80 604 96 092 109 650 126 348 144 142 161 618 169 006


% Change Cum Y/Y: Local Packaging & Other:2010 vs 2009

44.22% 19.61% 21.17% 20.01% 11.43% 5.28% 2.91% 2.33% -2.69% -3.13% -4.10% -3.27%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Packaging & Other: Cum Y/Y 2010 vs 2009(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Lo

ca

l P

ac

ka

gin

g &

Oth

er:

20

10

vs

20

09

23 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LOCAL PACKAGING MARKET: Y/Y 2012 VS 2011 (DECEMBER)




% Change Cum Y/Y: Local Packaging & Other: 2012 vs2011

15.36% 30.65% 26.96% 26.84% 26.58% 24.42% 21.61% 20.62% 16.74% 14.16% 12.80% 11.54%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Packaging & Other: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Lo

ca

l P

ac

ka

gin

g &

Oth

er:

20

12

vs

20

11

24 © BMI-BRSCU

THE OVERSEAS EXPORT MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Jan 0

1

Ma

y 0

1

Sep 0

1

Jan 0

2

Ma

y 0

2

Sep 0

2

Jan 0

3

Ma

y 0

3

Sep 0

3

Jan 0

4

Ma

y 0

4

Sep 0

4

Jan 0

5

Ma

y 0

5

Sep 0

5

Jan 0

6

Ma

y 0

6

Sep 0

6

Jan 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Sep 0

7

Jan 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Sep 0

8

Jan 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Sep 0

9

Jan 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Sep 1

0

Jan 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Sep 1

1

Jan 1

2

Ma

y 1

2

Sep 1

2

Cu

bic

Metr

es

Lumber Sales by End-use: Overseas Export: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Overseas Export 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Overseas Export)

25 © BMI-BRSCU

THE OVERSEAS EXPORT MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2011 VS 2010 (January - December)


2010 Cum Y/Y Overseas Export 1 234 1 619 2 633 2 952 3 070 3 513 3 911 4 585 4 879 5 160 5 885 5 995

2011 Cum Y/Y Overseas Export 81 500 610 1 097 1 491 1 817 2 571 3 037 3 352 3 721 3 885 3 885

% Change Cum Y/Y: Overseas Export: 2011 vs 2010 -93.44% -69.12% -76.83% -62.84% -51.43% -48.28% -34.26% -33.76% -31.30% -27.89% -33.98% -35.20%

-95%

-85%

-75%

-65%

-55%

-45%

-35%

-25%

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Overseas Export: Cum Y/Y 2011 vs 2010(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Ov

ers

ea

s E

xp

ort

: 2

01

1 v

s 2

01

0

26 © BMI-BRSCU

THE OVERSEAS EXPORT MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER)


2011 Cum Y/Y Overseas Export 81 500 610 1 097 1 491 1 817 2 571 3 037 3 352 3 721 3 885 3 885

2012 Cum Y/Y Overseas Export 86 126 312 576 1 024 1 556 1 952 2 945 3 646 4 715 5 248 5 838

% Change Cum Y/Y: Overseas Export: 2012 vs 2011 6.17% -74.80% -48.85% -47.49% -31.32% -14.36% -24.08% -3.03% 8.77% 26.71% 35.08% 50.27%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Overseas Export: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

Ov

ers

ea

s E

xp

ort

: 2

01

2 v

s 2

01

1

27 © BMI-BRSCU

THE TOTAL LUMBER MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

Jan 0

1

Ma

y 0

1

Sep 0

1

Jan 0

2

Ma

y 0

2

Sep 0

2

Jan 0

3

Ma

y 0

3

Sep 0

3

Jan 0

4

Ma

y 0

4

Sep 0

4

Jan 0

5

Ma

y 0

5

Sep 0

5

Jan 0

6

Ma

y 0

6

Sep 0

6

Jan 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Sep 0

7

Jan 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Sep 0

8

Jan 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Sep 0

9

Jan 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Sep 1

0

Jan 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Sep 1

1

Jan 1

2

Ma

y 1

2

Sep 1

2

Cu

bic

Metr

es

Lumber Sales by End-use: Total: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

TOTAL 12 per. Mov. Avg. (TOTAL)

28 © BMI-BRSCU

THE TOTAL LUMBER MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2011 VS 2010 (January - December)


2010 Cum Y/Y Total 95 023 222 47 350 96 468 60 587 17 695 40 819 22 950 03 1 056 1 188 1 328 1 412

2011 Cum Y/Y Total 117 53 246 40 372 82 482 73 607 35 741 38 864 15 1 001 1 148 1 283 1 427 1 524

% Change Cum Y/Y: Total: 2010 vs 2009 17.94% 12.00% 16.41% 19.36% 17.22% 14.41% 11.62% 12.29% 10.01% 8.74% 7.68% 8.60%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Total: Cum Y/Y 2011 vs 2010(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

To

tal:

20

11

vs

20

10

29 © BMI-BRSCU

THE TOTAL LUMBER MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2012 VS 2011 (DECEMBER)


2011 Cum Y/Y Total 117 538 246 408 372 829 482 730 607 358 741 381 864 158 1 001 2 1 148 9 1 283 8 1 427 5 1 524 5

2012 Cum Y/Y Total 109 323 245 703 385 496 506 002 641 198 769 637 889 766 1 035 0 1 157 1 1 303 3 1 454 4 1 532 7

% Change Cum Y/Y: Total: 2012 vs 2011 -6.99% -0.29% 3.40% 4.82% 5.57% 3.81% 2.96% 3.37% 0.71% 1.52% 1.89% 0.54%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

-

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

Cu

bic

Me

tre

s

Total Lumber Sales: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

ha

ng

e C

um

Y/Y

To

tal:

20

12

vs

20

11

30 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LUMBER MARKET BY REGION: CUM Y/Y 2011

GauMpum,

Limp, NWKZN

WC, SC ,NC

EC FS & LesNam &Neighb

TerritoryO/S Export

YTD Formal Softwood Sawmill Lumber Sales byRegion (m3)

451 047 260 395 227 913 274 499 103 709 41 874 64 209 3 885

Percentage 31.60% 18.24% 15.97% 19.23% 7.26% 2.93% 4.50% 0.27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000C

ub

ic M

etr

es

YTD Formal Softwood Sawmill Lumber Sales by Region (m3): 2011(Source: Crickmay Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

31 © BMI-BRSCU

THE LUMBER MARKET BY REGION: CUM Y/Y 2012 (DECEMBER)

GauMpum,

Limp, NWKZN

WC, SC ,NC

EC FS & LesNam &Neighb

TerritoryO/S Export

YTD Formal Softwood Sawmill Lumber Sales byRegion (m3)

512660 268100 255123 258609 112163 48501 71707 5838

Percentage 33.45% 17.49% 16.65% 16.87% 7.32% 3.16% 4.68% 0.38%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

Cu

bic

Metr

es

YTD Formal Softwood Sawmill Lumber Sales by Region (m3): 2012 (Dec)(Source: Crickmay Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

32 © BMI-BRSCU

LOCAL BUILDING MARKET VS RESIDENTIAL BC: 2002 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Jan 0

2M

ar

02

Ma

y 0

2Jul 02

Sep 0

2N

ov 0

2Jan 0

3M

ar

03

Ma

y 0

3Jul 03

Sep 0

3N

ov 0

3Jan 0

4M

ar

04

Ma

y 0

4Jul 04

Sep 0

4N

ov 0

4Jan 0

5M

ar

05

Ma

y 0

5Jul 05

Sep 0

5N

ov 0

5Jan 0

6M

ar

06

Ma

y 0

6Jul 06

Sep 0

6N

ov 0

6Jan 0

7M

ar

07

Ma

y 0

7Jul 07

Sep 0

7N

ov 0

7Jan 0

8M

ar

08

Ma

y 0

8Jul 08

Sep 0

8N

ov 0

8Jan 0

9M

ar

09

Ma

y 0

9Jul 09

Sep 0

9N

ov 0

9Jan 1

0M

ar

10

Ma

y 1

0Jul 10

Sep 1

0N

ov 1

0Jan 1

1M

ar

11

Ma

y 1

1Jul 11

Sep 1

1N

ov 1

1Jan 1

2M

ar

12

Ma

y 1

2Jul 12

Sep 1

2N

ov 1

2

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) vs Residential BC (m2): Jan 2002 - Dec 2012

(Source: StatsSA; Crickmay Associates; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Residential BC (m2)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Residential BC (m2))

The revival in Lumber sales to Local Building HAS GROWN STRONGLY but is now declining.

There is a correlation between Local Building Lumber Sales and Residential BC.

33 © BMI-BRSCU

LOCAL BUILDING MARKET VS TOTAL BC: 2002 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Jan 0

2

Apr

02

Jul 0

2

Oct 02

Jan 0

3

Apr

03

Jul 0

3

Oct 03

Jan 0

4

Apr

04

Jul 0

4

Oct 04

Jan 0

5

Apr

05

Jul 0

5

Oct 05

Jan 0

6

Apr

06

Jul 0

6

Oct 06

Jan 0

7

Apr

07

Jul 0

7

Oct 07

Jan 0

8

Apr

08

Jul 0

8

Oct 08

Jan 0

9

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct 09

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct 10

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct 11

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 1

2

Oct 12

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) vs Total BC (m2): January 2002 - Dec 2012(Source: StatsSA; Crickmay Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales Cum Y/Y % Change: Total BC (m2)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total BC (m2))

34 © BMI-BRSCU

LOCAL BUILDING MARKET VS RESIDENTIAL BPP: 2002 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Jan

02

Ap

r 02

Jul 02

Oct 02

Jan

03

Ap

r 03

Jul 03

Oct 03

Jan

04

Ap

r 04

Jul 04

Oct 04

Jan

05

Ap

r 05

Jul 05

Oct 05

Jan

06

Ap

r 06

Jul 06

Oct 06

Jan

07

Ap

r 07

Jul 07

Oct 07

Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct 08

Jan

09

Ap

r 09

Jul 09

Oct 09

Jan

10

Ap

r 10

Jul 10

Oct 10

Jan

11

Ap

r 11

Jul 11

Oct 11

Jan

12

Ap

r 12

Jul 12

Oct 12

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) vs Res BPP (m2) : Jan 2002 - Dec 2012(Source: StatsSA; Crickmay Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Lumber Sales Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Residential BPP (m2)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Lumber Sales) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Residential BPP (m2))

Local Building Lumber Sales appear to be more closely correlated to Residential BPP

than to BC and also leads the trend.Related to Merchant anticipation of trend

and destocking or build-up in anticipation?

35 © BMI-BRSCU

LOCAL BUILDING MARKET VS TOTAL BPP: 2002 – 2012 (DECEMBER)

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Jan

02

Mar

02

May 0

2

Jul 02

Se

p 0

2

Nov 0

2

Jan

03

Mar

03

May 0

3

Jul 03

Se

p 0

3

Nov 0

3

Jan

04

Mar

04

May 0

4

Jul 04

Se

p 0

4

Nov 0

4

Jan

05

Mar

05

May 0

5

Jul 05

Se

p 0

5

Nov 0

5

Jan

06

Mar

06

May 0

6

Jul 06

Se

p 0

6

Nov 0

6

Jan

07

Mar

07

May 0

7

Jul 07

Se

p 0

7

Nov 0

7

Jan

08

Mar

08

May 0

8

Jul 08

Se

p 0

8

Nov 0

8

Jan

09

Mar

09

May 0

9

Jul 09

Se

p 0

9

Nov 0

9

Jan

10

Mar

10

May 1

0

Jul 10

Se

p 1

0

Nov 1

0

Jan

11

Mar

11

May 1

1

Jul 11

Se

p 1

1

Nov 1

1

Jan

12

Mar

12

May 1

2

Jul 12

Se

p 1

2

Nov 1

2

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) vs Total BPP (m2) : January 2002 - Dec 2012

(Source: Crickmay Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales Cum Y/Y % Change: Total BPP (m2)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total BPP (m2))

Local Building Lumber Sales appear to be more closely correlated to Total BPP than to BC and also leads the trend?

36 © BMI-BRSCU

PPI OF SELECTED BUILDING MATERIALS: 2002 – 2012 (NOVEMBER)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Janu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

r

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) OF SELECTED BUILDING MATERIALS: JANUARY 2002- 2012 (NOVEMBER)(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Bricks - Stock Bricks - Face

Cement building blocks Aggregated crushed stone (as from 2/86)

Cement (Retail) Sand

SA Pine, kiln dried Ordinary and extended cement

CPI Building and Construction

CPI

Ordinary and Extended Cement

January 2000 = 100

SA Pine Kiln Dried

37 © BMI-BRSCU

PPI OF SELECTED BUILDING MATERIALS: 2002 – 2012 (NOVEMBER)

90100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320

Janu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

rJanu

ary

Ma

rch

Ma

yJuly

Septe

mb

er

No

ve

mbe

r

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) OF SELECTED BUILDING MATERIALS: JAN 2002- 2012 (NOVEMBER)


Bricks - Stock Ordinary and extended cement

CPI SA Pine Kiln Dried

Building and Construction

CPI

SA Pine Kiln Dried

January 2000 = 100

38 © BMI-BRSCU

PPI OF SELECTED BUILDING MATERIALS: 2012 (NOVEMBER)

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330340350360

SA

Pin

e, k

iln d

ried

Pain

ts

Bric

ks - S

tock

Bric

ks - F

ace

Cem

ent b

uild

ing

blo

cks

San

d

Agg

rega

ted

cru

sh

ed

sto

ne (a

s fro

m 2

/86

)

Ord

ina

ry a

nd e

xte

nd

ed

ce

men

t

Natu

ral s

tone

, cut a

nd s

aw

n

Gla

ss, fo

r build

ing

indu

stry

(as fro

m 1

/93

)

Gyp

su

m b

oard

Dro

p in

ceilin

g tile

s-g

yp

su

m

Dro

p in

ceilin

g tile

s-m

aso

nite

Flu

sh d

oors

Dra

ina

ge

Plu

mb

ing

Cera

mic

& e

nca

ustic

wall &

floor tile

s &

mo

sa

ics

Woven

Nee

dle

Pu

nch C

arp

etin

g

Ceilin

g m

ate

rials

Partitio

nin

g m

ate

rials

She

et, g

alv

an

ized

Cem

ent (R

eta

il)

Con

cre

te ro

of tile

s

Fib

re c

em

ent ro

of s

hee

ts

Coa

ted p

rofile

d G

MS

she

etin

g

Vin

yl flo

or tile

s

Vin

yl s

he

etin

g

Wash a

nd b

asin

WC

pa

ns a

nd

bid

ets

Cop

pe

r pip

es

Gla

ss fo

r the b

uild

ing

indu

stry

- cut to

siz

e

Build

ing B

oard

s

Rein

f Ste

el

Build

ing a

nd C

onstru

ctio

n

Build

ing In

du

strie

s

Civ

il Eng

ine

erin

g

CP

IIn

dex (

2000 =

100)

Producer Price Index (PPI) by type of Material: November 2012 (January 2000 = 100)(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

CPIPrice doubling since January 2000

SA Pine Cement

39 © BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY OF THE LUMBER MARKET: 2002 – 2012 (NOVEMBER)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

January

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

r

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PRICE MOVEMENT OF CEMENT AND SA PINE KILN DRIED VS BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AND CPI: JAN 2002-2012 (NOV)


Ordinary and extended cement

Building and Construction

CPI

SA Pine, kiln dried

40 © BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY OF THE LUMBER MARKET: 2002 – 2012 (NOVEMBER)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

January

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

rJanuary

Marc

hM

ay

July

Sep

tem

ber

Nove

mbe

r

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PRICE MOVEMENT OF SA PINE KILN DRIED VS BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AND CPI: JAN 2002- 2012 (NOV)


SA Pine, kiln dried Building and Construction CPI

lumber sales ytd 2012 (dec 2012)

Business

bpp bc

ytd sales

local building lumber

building industry

total bpp

alterations bpp

local building lumbersales

domestic cement sales