louisiana traffic records data report 2019

Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety

Louisiana Traffic Records Data Report 2019

Dr. Helmut Schneider

September 2020

CARTS.lsu.edu

https://carts.lsu.edu/


Overview

• Trends in Crashes, Fatalities & Injuries• Explanation of trends • Driving Under the Influence of Alcohol: Crashes and DWI Arrests• Occupant Protection• Crash Costs


Some Notes about Interpretation of Data • Regression to the mean

• Explaining versus predicting• Predicting: Does it continue to happen?• Explaining: Why did it happen?

• Causation versus correlation• Drunk driving is associated with fatal crashes. (Correlation)• Does an increase in drunk driving result in an increase of fatal crashes? (Causation)• Drugged driving is associated with fatal crashes. (Correlation)• Does an increase in drugged driving result in an increase of fatal crashes? (Causation)

• Confounding • Confounding of factors make it difficult to interpret which factor caused the crashes to go up

or down.


Trends• What are the trends in crashes, fatalities and injuries?• What are the trend in rates?• What are one-year changes?• What are changes from 2010 to 2019?• Highlights:

• Interstates• Bicycles• Pedestrians• Motorcycles• Young drivers• Crash costs


Trends in Fatalities & Fatality RateWhile the fatalities have been on the rise again since 2012, there was no change from 2017 to 2018, but a decline of 44 fatalities from 2018 to 2019 or 5.7%.

Fatalities per 100 million miles traveled declined by 8.4% from 2018 to 2019.

What is the cause for this “Z” curve?

966993

677

771

727

2.152.19

1.461.54

1.411.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Fatalities Fatality Rates


Crashes, Vehicles, Occupants (1,000)Number of • # of crashes

• # Occupants in Crashes• # Vehicles in crashes

437

398

468

434

302279

333307

158 148 174

160

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Occuopants Vehicles Crashes


Serious and Moderate Injury Rate (per 100 Million Miles)

Over the past 15 yearsthe serious & moderate injury rate has dropped on average 2 injuries per year per 100 million miles traveled.

184

151148

166

141y = -2.04x + 176.29

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Fatality Rate per 1,000 Occupants of Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans

If we still had the same fatality rate per occupant as in 2006 (1.81) we would have had 287 more fatalities in 2019.

The fatality rate per occupant seems to have shifted to a lower level starting in 2008.

713

462501

457

1.81

1.221.31

1.15

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Fatality Trends (Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)

Fatal Fatal Rate (per 1,000 OCC)

Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety Moderate and Severe Injury(Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)Moderate-to- Severe Injuries:Decreased from 13,997 in 2005 to 10,556 in 2019

The Moderate-to- Severe-Injury Rate: (per 1,000 Occupants)Decreased from 35.58 in 2005 to 26.67 in 2019. Has been flat between 26.71 (2017), 26.51 (2018) And 26.67 (2019).

If we had the same injury rate as in 2005,we would have had 3, 528 more moderate to severe injuries in 2019.

13,997

11,045 11,879

10,556

35.58

29.4128.15

26.67

20.00

22.00

24.00

26.00

28.00

30.00

32.00

34.00

36.00

38.00

40.00

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Serious & Moderate Trends (Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)

Serious & Moderate Injuries SMI Rate (per 1,000 OCC)


Conclusion from the Trend Data

A comparison between 2005 and 2019 crash data for LA show:• about the same number of crashes• about the same number of vehicles in crashes • about the same number of occupants in crashesHowever, LA had • 35.9% fewer fatalities in (Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)• 24.6% fewer serious and moderate injuries in (Cars, Light Trucks,

SUVs, and Vans)

Explaining Injury & Fatality Trends• 1984 (FMVSS 208) to require cars produced after 1 April 1989

to be equipped with a passive restraint for the driver.• September 1998 Federal legislation makes front airbags on both sides

mandatory. • 2009 NHTSA mandate that all automakers must phase in additional

side-impact protection as a standard feature for their cars, trucks and SUVs goes in effect.

Fatality and Injury Rates by Vehicle Model Year(Per 100,000 Occupants in crashes)

The rate of serious to fatal injuries declined by 78.4% from 1988 model vehicle to a 2000 model vehicle.The rate of fatalities declined by 90.5% from 1988 model vehicle to a 2000 model vehicle.

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Fatal and Injury Rates by Vehicle Year

% Minor to Fatal Rate Fatal Rate Serious to Fatal Rate

46%

22%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Vehicles Year <1999

Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety Explaining Injury & Fatality Trends versus Unemployment

Louisiana Unemployment Rate

966 993

677771

727

2.15 2.19

1.461.54

1.41 1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

300400500600700800900

1000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Fatalities Fatality Rates

Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety Explaining Injury & Fatality Trends versus Seat Belt Use

713

462 501 4571.81

1.22 1.311.15 0.90

1.40

1.90

2.40

200

400

600

800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Fatality Trends (Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)

Fatal Fatal Rate (per 1,000 OCC)


Conclusion• Safer cars beginning with the 1999 models (airbags)

• Resulting in a permanent lower injury and fatality rate per vehicle in a crash

• 2007-2011 three things where happening• Older less safe cars (<1999) where phased out• The economy had a downturn, fewer vehicles in crashes• Seat belt use increased by 2.5 percentage points

• 2011-2019 experienced an increase in vehicles in crashes due to increased economic activities. But

• at much lower injury rates of safer cars, and • A 10 percentage point increase in seat belt use

• The result is more like a “Z” curve rather than a “V” curve

Other Trends


Crashes on State Routes and Local Roads

101792

89533

71833 70879

17.1%

15.5%

16.0%

16.5%

17.0%

17.5%

18.0%

18.5%

19.0%

19.5%

20.0%

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

STATE LOCAL %-Single Veh Linear (%-Single Veh)

Interstate Fatalities

From 2018 to 2019• Fatalities down 15.8%• Fatality rate down 15.2%

165180

141 133 135 140

93106 115 110

96114 112 114

96

1.35

0.740.67 0.67

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

020406080

100120140160180200

FATAL CRASHES

FATALITIES

FATALITIES PER 100 MILLION MILES TRAVELED


• 2017-2019 number of crashes trending downwards on state roads, US HWY & Interstates while number of crashes on local roads have not changed much.

• Single vehicle crashes on state routes US HWY & Interstates have declined by one percentage point over the past 10 years.

Bicyclist Fatalities

• 2018-2019 • Bicyclist fatalities down 26.7%• Alcohol involved bicyclist's death

unchanged

• All injuries went up 9.7%. • Over the past 15 years on

average Louisiana had 19.8 bicyclist fatalities per year.

611 648739

727

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Bicycles

FATALITIES FATALITIES WITH ALCOHOL

INJURIES & FATALITIES

Motorcyclist Fatalities

2018-2019 Change• Motorcyclist fatalities up 10.1%.• Alcohol involved motorcyclist's

death up 14.3%.• Injuries down 4.3%. • Injuries have been trending

downward for the past decade.

1,483

1,784

1,480 1,405

1,194

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Motorcycles



Pedestrian Fatalities & Injuries

2018-2019 change• 26.1% decrease in pedestrian

fatalities• 6.6% decrease in pedestrian

injuries• Injuries have trended

upwards since 2006.

1,296

1,053

1,464

1,635

1,527

- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

020406080

100120140160180

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Pedestrians




Young Drivers in Fatal Crashes

71

21

43

27

17

29

91

33

4740

77

44

58 57

44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Crash Rates Per 100,000 Licensed Drivers

15-17 18-20 21-24 Poly. (18-20)


The four Major Contributing Factors

Alcohol

Aggressive Driving

Safety Belt

DistractionThe 5-year average is 78% of fatal crashes involves one of the four factors.


Distractions


Cell Phone Distraction Distracted & Inattentive Fatalities

2,154

2,278 2,217

2,178 2,241

2,343 2,404 2,406

2,174

2,279

3

6

13

9

56

3

87

17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Drivers Driver Fatalities

214 213 214204

187

166154

168155

137

172156

168158

187

0

50

100

150

200

250


Aggressive Driving

Aggressive Driving is defined as either• Exceeding stated speed limit• Exceeding safe speed limit• Failure to Yield• Following too closely• Improper passing• Disregarded traffic control• Careless operation


Fatalities & Aggressive Driving Violations

Aggressive driving violationsin fatal crashes

have been flat between 403 and 429 over the past 8 years.

588614

640

572522

474

419 404 416 426 429 424 421 403 416

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Drinking and Driving


Surviving Driver

The odds of the surviving driver having NO alcohol are about 9 to 1.

YEAR DRIVERS % DRIVERS % DRIVERS % DRIVERS %

2014 291 58% 10 2% 14 9 29% 56 11%2015 339 59% 11 2% 152 27% 69 12%2016 338 53% 8 1% 231 36% 61 10%2017 324 54 % 0 0% 219 37% 52 9%2018 365 56% 0 0% 228 35% 56 9%2019 319 51% 0 0% 24 3 39% 60 10%

5 YEAR 10% -6% 63% 10% 7% -1%

BAC 0 PENDING & UNK NOT TESTED BAC > 0


Fatalities

The odds of the killed driver having NO alcohol are about 2 to 1. The odds of the fatal driver to have BAC>0 are about 5 times the odds of the surviving driver.

YEAR DRIVERS % DRIVERS % DRIVERS % DRIVERS %

2014 206 4 2% 4 3 8.8% 73 15% 166 34 %2015 24 5 4 7% 22 4 .2% 72 14 % 184 35%2016 24 8 50% 3 0.6% 74 15% 167 34 %2017 277 54 % 0 0.0% 67 13% 173 34 %2018 251 51% 0 0.0% 92 19% 150 30%2019 257 54 % 0 0.0% 53 11% 167 35%

5 YEAR 25% 12% -27% -4% 1% 1%

BAC 0 PENDING & UNK NOT TESTED BAC > 0


Fatalities in Crashes with BAC>=0.08

152

219

253 246225

166181

199 194 201

223204

188 186 18827%

36% 35% 35% 34%

29%

34%32% 31% 31% 32%

29%27% 27% 28%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

BAC >= .08 Fatalities % BAC >= .08 Fatal Crashes


Rate (per 100,000 lic. Drivers) Youth Drivers and Alcohol Involvement in Fatal Crashes

17

3 2 1 1

17

29

86 7

21

35

16

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Youth Drivers with Predicted Alcohol Involved in Fatal Crashes

15-17 18-20 21-24

Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety DWI Fatalities and % DWI Fatalities Involving of BAC>=0.08 by Troop Area

Size of bubble represents total number of fatalities.

AB

C D

EF

G I

L

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Number of Fatalities BAC>08

%Al

coho

l-Rel

ated

Fat

aliti

es


DWI Arrests from COBRA Rule of Thumb:

For every 1,000 hours Saturation Patrol 4 fewer fatalities.

For every SFST conducted 3 fewer fatalities.

Source: Target of Opportunity Report.

6,125 5,679 5,308 4,565 4,587 4,497 4,064 4,078 3,721 3,434

16,185 15,659 14,93112,450 11,753 9,678 8,378 10,014 9,356 9,244

2,019 1,770 1,609

1,120 1,004800

717756 641 580

7,4486,833

6,123

5,428 5,5233,598

2,7883,963 3,715 3,822

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

COBRA DATA

No DWI ADULT-DWI UNDERAGE-DWI REFUSED


COBRA: Refused Tests

8,579

3,822

33.2%

22.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Refused % Refused


COBRA: Average BAC

0.125

0.119

0.12

0.121

0.122

0.123

0.124

0.125

0.126

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Youth (17-20) DWI Arrests

2,750

817

0.096

0.089

0.078

0.08

0.082

0.084

0.086

0.088

0.09

0.092

0.094

0.096

0.098

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019# TESTS POSIVE AVERAGE BAC


Average Age in DWI Arrests

35

38

33.5

34

34.5

35

35.5

36

36.5

37

37.5

38

38.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Drugs in Fatal Crashes (Crime Lab Data)

38 42 4150

93

158

3343

2741

213435

49

34

5340 40

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cannabinoid Narcotics Stimulants


Occupant Protection

What progress has Louisiana made over the past 20 years?


Seat Belt Usage (1999-2019)

67.0%68.2%

68.1%68.6%

73.8%75.0%

77.7%

74.8%

75.2%

75.5%74.5%

75.9%77.7%

79.3%

82.0%84.1%

85.9%87.8% 87.1%

86.9%

87.5%

y = 1.1%x + 66.1%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%19

99

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019


Seat Belt Use by Region 2016-2019Region Estimate STD Error

1-New Orleans 87.0% 0.2%

2-Baton Rouge 84.4% 0.2%

3-Houma 91.3% 0.2%

4-Lafayette 86.6% 0.2%

5-Lake Charles 91.1% 0.3%

6-Alexandria 81.3% 0.3%

7-Shreveport 90.1% 0.2%

8-Monroe 84.9% 0.3%LA total 87.7% 0.1%

FIGURE 1: LOUISIANA SURVEY REGIONS

2. Baton Rouge

1. New Orleans

8. Monroe

6. Alexandria

3. Houma

4. Lafayette

7. Shreveport

5. Lake Charles

2019Louisiana 87.5% Texas 90.9%Arkansas 81.9%Mississippi 80.5%Alabama 92.3%


Seat Belt Use by Troop 2016-2019

Troop Estimate STD ErrorA-Baton Rouge 84.8% 0.2%B-New Orleans

86.1% 0.2%C-Houma 93.4% 0.2%

D-Calcasieu 91.1% 0.3%E-Natchitoches

81.3% 0.3%F-Monroe 85.1% 0.3%

G-Shreveport90.4% 0.2%

I-Lafayette 86.6% 0.2%L-Hammond 88.3% 0.2%

LA 87.7%


Seat Belt Use of Fatalities versus Seat Belt Use Survey by Troop

y = 1.0x - 40R² = 0.65

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

80.0% 82.0% 84.0% 86.0% 88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0%

Seat Belt Use (Survey)

Seat

Bel

t Use

(Fat

ality

)


Seat Belt Tickets by Age Group per 100,000 licensed Drivers


Set Belt Tickets by Age Group, Gender and Race per 100,000 licensed drivers


Multiple Tickets


Ratio of Estimated Percentage of Driver Receiving Seat Belt Tickets over Percentage of Drivers not Wearing a Seat Belt

FEMALE MALESeat Belt Tickets BLACK OTHER WHITE BLACK OTHER WHITE

10.91 0.85 1.18 0.86 1.15 1.01

20.84 0.47 0.84 1.13 1.21 1.10

30.73 0.47 0.65 1.31 1.33 1.15

40.65 0.28 0.58 1.40 1.27 1.18

5+0.53 0.19 0.47 1.54 1.15 1.23

Table 5: Ratio of Estimated Percentage of Driver Receiving Seat Belt Tickets over Percentage of Drivers not Wearing a Seat Belt


Cost of Crashes The Economic and Societal Impact Of Motor Vehicle Crashes, 2010, page 12, unit cost are adjusted by CPI.

Type Average Cost per Person InjuriesTotal Cost by Injury Category in Billion

Dollars

Total Cost by Injury Category in Billions

Including Loss of Quality of Life

Fatal Injuries $1,650,721 727 $1.20 $7.85Severe Injuries $422,227 1,348 $0.57 $2.44

Moderate Injuries $123,869 11,536 $1.43 $6.07Complaint Injuries $26,879 59,629 $1.60 $3.24

Occupants with No Injury$5,168 360,402 $1.86 $1.86

Property Damage $7,170 307,202 $2.20 $2.20Grand Total Cost 740,844 $8.87 $23.66

Cost per licensed Driver $2,993 $7,989Percent change from past year -0.4% -0.9%

Moderate, sever & fatality make up only 36% of the economic costs but 89% of quality of life costs.

For comparison Louisiana’s fiscal year 2019 executive budget was $9.74 Billion.

https://www.labudget.org/2017/02/the-fy-18-executive-budget/


Summary

• While the number of crashes and number of people involved in crashes are about the same as in 2005, fatalities are about 25% lower than in 2005.

• Factors contributing to this are:• Safer vehicles. • Higher seat belt use, (+10%) over past 10 years• Alcohol impaired fatalities (BAC>0.08) slightly down over the past three years

• Cost of crashes decreased slightly from 2018 to 2019.

COVID-19 Year Outlook

01020304050607080

killed-2015-2019 Killed-2020

02000400060008000

10000120001400016000

Crashes: 2015-2019 Crashes: 2020

louisiana traffic records data report 2019

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