life after shopping gaetan siew ceo mipim 12-15 march 2013 mipim cannes 2013
TRANSCRIPT
Life after shopping
Gaetan Siew CEO
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
MIPIM Cannes 2013
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
OptimismGreat DisruptionChange of expectations
Optimism• Good in crisis• Backs against the wall• Break addiction to
growth• Rough ride to better
place• Debt is dueGreat Disruption
• Economic /Ecosystem crash synchro
• Food shortages• Climate catastrophes• Massive economic change• Global geopolitical instability
Change in expectations• Our material lifestyles• Nature & focus of our work &
career• Our expectations of government• Communities/Companies behaviour
This is your story, our story. This is the time . This is our time.
Choking citiesJakarta ~10h/dayIndia - $4,5 b €/year
In the Eye of the Cyclone
“The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences... We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now...”W Churchill - 1926
The Scream – Our children’s childrenMankind ProgressNatureRio to DurbanMankind Progress• Depth & Complexity of
issues• Experience +
Understanding
Part and Parcel of Nature
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
A Very Big ProblemGlobal FootprintHumanity v/s MoneySkepticism
Humanity v/s Money• Sir N Stern : Unchecked climate = 20% GDP• Can we afford this?
The World• 2007 : > 50% urban population• Monster or sustainable cities ?• + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050• 500 000 slum dwellers /month
Global Footprint - Climate Refugees• 2011: Thailand Floods = 34 € bn• 1 000s of lives• China droughts = 4m families < 60 years• Russia = record °C – banned wheat exports• Pakistan, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia,
Somalia
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Beyond the limits No action ?Limits
World : 1 hectare of agri-land lost/sec
No action?• No action = more of the same• Problem will be fixed by
• New technologies• Power of markets• New capital injection
• Not going to happen• Will we continue• Business as usual?
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Limits• Planet’s finite physical resources• Capacity to absorb impact• 9 bn people
• To feed (+50% demand in 2030 – World Bank)• To house
• If poor grow modestly 2%/Year • 2050 : Global economy x 15 of now• Now = 140% of planet capacity
3 QuestionsWhere are we now?
3 Questions• Problem is population?• Market/Technology will fix it
?• Different economy?
Where are we now?• Challenge = clear, logical, accepted• Herculean task• Maths do not work if eco grows• No observation of global scale action• Momentum against us• Resistance to change
continues/strengthens
Beyond the limits
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Addicted to GrowthWe love it!Choice?What is the issue?
BangladeshClimate refugeesWorld = 250 m pa.
We love it!• Political/Economical strategy of every gov/company
Issue?Not when but how• How to adjust?
Planet and/or Civilisation• Not only about saving the planet• About saving the civilisation
Human Issue• Most importantly human
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
When the Dam of Denial BreaksGlobal Emergency ResponseNew Economic ModelOld/New Systems
Sahara Sun = 10 000 EU needsSun = 10 000 x world daily needs
Global Emergency Response• Initial response: Energy, Transport, City,
Agriculture• Expand Response to other Sustainability Issues• Global Energy Efficiency benefits 2050 = 6 tn €
Two Responses in parallel• Old Economy & System : trying to fix itself
• + existing assumptions and mechanisms• New Economy
• + out of the box thinking
New Economic Model• Less Consumerism/material growth• Alleviating poverty / Inequity• New Energy Systems: Renewable energies• City reDesign for Quality of life • Reconfigure businesses for + value / less resources
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
The One-degree WarRapid Response Possible2 Phases
The global risk of coastal flooding
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
China : 50 shades of grey
2 Phases• Phase 1: Failure of growth
• Assumption: Growth = prosperity/success• Resistance: to restart growth
• Phase 2: End of growth• Breakthru’ in technology• Cities, transport, agriculture transformed
• Rapid global change with• Resilience, ingenuity, brilliance, innovation
Rapid Response Possible• Coalition of Cooling• 50% Emission = USA + China + EU27
• 67% Emission = if + Br + Ru + In + Jp
Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese SunSurvivalGeopolitical implications
Survival• Not about size/strength• Adapt + Resilience• Practical Preparedness :
• Right Technology • Innovation
• Psychological Readiness :• Cope with uncertainty• Cope with rapid change• Challenge >> Decision
One certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese SunEU - USA -Asia (China)
EU- USA - Asia (China)• EU - USA losing advance in innovation• EU o 2020 - 20% - 20%• China =
• 2006-10: 20% CO2 reduction• 2020 : 40-45% reduction• World largest solar market + Wind power
• Asia:Less subject to corporate lobby & democracy• Asia : Heavy R&D investment - 2012: 386 b € – 38%
world• Energy Efficiency - New Energies - IT & Biotech, etc
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Who’s in charge?Finance?Media power?Governments?Civil Society?99%?Facebook?
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Creative RedesignOpportunitiesCreative measures
Opportunities• Winners: seize opportunity
• HSBC 2020 : Low CO² tech = 1,5 tn €/Y• WEF 2030 : 13,5 tn € /Y
• Losers: slow to respond >>> Kodak v/s FujiCreative Measures• C5 : Connect the City to Chaos,Crisis & Change
• Create Urban Leadership• Promote Urban Responsibility • Create Long Term Value• Shop less, live more
• I4 : Invest in Intelligence, IT & Innovation• Connect IT R&D to Quality of Life• Invest in solar/wind/bio• Eco-retrofit the old cities (EU=32% E-savings)• Sustainable by Design• Value of Time
• E4: Exchange –Export Expertise & Experience• Partner with BRICS, Asia & Africa• (Re)Value/adapt expertise to new markets
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Creative RedesignClean Technology?Focus
Future certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change
Clean Technology?• Close to Zero CO2
• Safe and Affordable• Quality of Life• Geopolitical Security• Future Prosperity• Economic Stability
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Two reasons• Only Choice• Happiness Economy
Yes weekend!!!
Yes there’s a life after shopping
Only Choice• Redesign our economy
• Rich in happiness – not physical impact• Rich in Q of life – deep in human development
• Choices: personal, corporate,national & global• Less money, Less stuff, more time >>> Happier
Two reasons for Change• No Choice• Old model outdated
• Has delivered• Cannot anymore
Happiness Economy• Work hard, more wealth. Buy more !?• Seychelles Fisherman• Shop less, Live more• More fun, clearer conscience.• More time, better health
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Thank youMerci
Gaetan Siew [email protected]
• Resilience• Adaptability• Innovation• Compassion
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Amin Maalouf“To reconcile, reunite, adopt, tame,pacify are voluntary acts , are acts of civilisation which needs perseverance and clarity . Acts that are learnt, cultivated. Learning to live together is a never ending battle that is never totally won.”