leulseged yirgu: adapting to climate change in the water sector: assessing the effectiveness

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  • 1.ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WATER SECTOR Assessing the Effectiveness of Planned Adaptation Interventions in Reducing Local Vulnerability Case Study Leulseged Yirgu 9-11 March 2011

2. Outline

  • Introduction,
  • Methodology
  • Findings:
  • Local perceptions
  • Local coping strategies ( autonomous adaptation)
  • Effectiveness of proxy-planned adaptation interventions
  • Key lessonsor learning points

3. Introduction

  • Background information on the water resources context and challenges in Ethiopia:
  • As per the Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy (WB, 2006),Irrigation in Africa...(FAO, 2005)and ERHA (2010) documents :
  • Huge rainfall
  • The runoff is, however,highly seasonal , 70% occur in very short period of time, fromJunetoAugust , with an average annual rainfall for the country as is848 mm . The highest annual rainfall(>2000 mm ) occur in theSEandWest , and it gradually decrease to theNE ,East ( < 250 mm )

4. Cont

  • The total renewablesurface water resourcesare estimated at 122 billion cubic meter per year from 12 major river basins and 22 lakes
  • Significantgroundwater resources(2.6 billion m )
  • Many communities rely on groundwater
  • For example in 2002 out of total ground water withdrawal:6% used for domestic;93.6%,was used for irrigation and livestock, and0.4%for industry
  • This is< 5%(4.6% ) of total actual renewable water resources are withdrawn annually in the country

5. Cont

  • Highhydrological variabilityandunpredictabilityboth intime(within and between years) andspace :
  • The countrys significant renewable water resources areunevenly distributed
  • At present there islittle knowledgeof the groundwater resource, includingno national-level sector monitoring of groundwater levels ,
  • Groundwaterquality is poorin many areas of the Rift Valley, due to high concentrations of fluoride,
  • Managing water resources ,isa major challenge

6. Cont

  • Climate change and its impacts in Ethiopia :
  • At a national level,agriculture/food security ,water resourcesandhealthhave been identified as vulnerable sectors (NAPA, 2008)
  • Adapting to CC in the water sector is a focus of the study,

7. Objective of the study

  • 1.T o assess perception of communitiesto current andprevious CC impacts,
  • 2. To assess and documentinglocal coping strategies(autonomous adaptation actions),
  • 3. To check effectiveness ofproxy-planned adaptationinterventions

8. Methodology

  • Research Team : fromODI,HUand EHZ- ARDO, EHWO andFEDO ( Nanki K., Million G. andBeneberu S., and Zegeye T., Gebeyehu S., & Endale A.)
  • PRA tools : diffrentPRA toolswere used to assess local perceptions in relation to CC, theseinclude:
  • Wealth ranking,focus group discussions(16), community resource mapping, etc
  • House Hold Survey :(60)
  • Experts interview : district experts and DAs
  • Secondary datacollection and analysis (livelihood , population; climate trends; water availability)

9. Study sites

  • OromiaRegion,EasterHarageZone :GorogutuandMetadistricts
  • Chefeaneni andBekelcha Oromia villages, respectively from the above two districts-agricultural livelihood zone
  • SomaliRegion,ShinileZone :Errordistrict,
  • Billavillage-agro-pastoral livelihood zone (where livelihoods rely on irrigated agriculture and livestock)
  • Ayidoravillage-pastoral livelihood zone
  • The study sites are mandate areas of RiPPLE -HCS

10. Study findings 11. Local perception of CC

  • Local communities identified five major indicators
  • Temperature: increasing
  • Indicators:
    • The environment getting hotter ,
    • Animals drinking more water
    • Loss of fodder types(e.g.Deremo, deref, housman, etc)
    • Reduction of rivers flowsandmalaria prevalence
    • Increase intemperature -> leading to up-ward shift of agro-ecological zones

12. Cont... 13. Local perception continued

  • Rainfall:variability and decrease in amount ..
  • Indicators:
    • Reduction in the vegetation cover of rangeland
    • Stunned growth of plants,
    • Distortion of agricultural calendaranddelayed /failing of the Belg' rain ,the short rainy season
    • Changes in rainfall patterns(timing, intensity, duration, seasonal patterns)
    • However,meteorological data analysison rainfall,shows onlyannual variability trends , e.g.

14. Local perception continued

  • Soil moisture: reduced
  • Indicators:
  • Drying-up of grazing lands,
  • Crack formation in farm lands,
  • Difficulty to plough with oxen
  • and seed germination ,
  • Increase in irrigation water
  • requirement
  • However, soil moisture content also depends
  • on other factors: soil type, vegetation cover...

15. Local perception continued

  • Rivers flows: decreasing
  • Indicators:reduction in the discharge of springs, and declining in the amount of rivers flows and distance traveled
  • Humidity: getting dry
  • Indicators:
  • Change in wind direction,
  • Dry-up of skin,
  • Disappearance of morning dew
  • Increase in the extreme weather events occurrence (droughts and floods) was reported
  • For example, occurrence of droughts in:1987,1994, 1996, 2007in the pastoral areasreported

16. Impactsof CCon economic uses of water

  • The HH survey documented the impacts of identified trends in CC on the economic and domestic use of water across the three different livelihoods
  • i ) Impacts on pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods :
  • In study areasherd size
  • per HH is decreasing
  • over the last 30 years,
  • Also changes inherd composition
  • decline is high to sheep,followed by cow, goat and camel, shifting to more browsers than grazers

17. Cont

  • A change in herd composition could be taken as a positive or negative trend in terms of adaptation
  • Looking at its positive side, it is good resorting to more drought resistant animals (e.g. goats & camels)
  • On its negative side, however, concentrating on few livestock types as opposed to a diversified herd may have negative consequences when it comes to other vulnerabilities like market failure or livestock diseases
  • Reasons identified for above trend by the HH Survey:
  • Lack /changesof fodderandincreasing incidence oflivestock diseases ;reduced water availability
  • Family labor, etc

18. Cont

  • ii) Impacts on agricultural livelihoods:
  • Focus group discussions highlighted that CC has potentially contributed to achange in the pattern of crop production . For instance, the womens group reporteda shift :
  • fromHL cropslike wheat toLL cropslike sorghum,
  • to moredrought-resistantandearly maturing cropslike chat, sweet potato, and pumpkin
  • towardssingle croppingas compared to double-cropping
  • Data from the HH survey supports local perceptions that highlight adecrease in food production . In the last 25 years there has been a decrease in the production of bothmaizeandsorghum

19. Cont...

  • Farmers felt that much of the change can be attributed to:
  • Increased temperature ,rainfall variabilityandreduced soil fertility , which in turn have been identified as the causes of changes in agricultural productivity
  • Decreasing in farm land size, increasing in input price
  • However, it is difficult to say for certain that CC is directly responsible for this change

20. Impactof CCon domestic uses of water

  • Domestic sources of water in the study sites include:
  • Boreholes, riverbedexcavation and seasonal ponds (man-made) (in pastoral lowland areas)
  • Irrigation canals (in the agro-pastoral site)
  • Cold springs (both developed and undeveloped),
  • Hand dug wells, ponds(in the Awash), (in the agricultural sites)

21. Cont

  • CC, in terms of increased variability in rainfall (delayed rainfall), has resulted inincreased seasonality of the water sources :
  • decreased spring discharge, in the highland and midland areas
  • decline in ponds storage,in the lowland areas
  • dry up water sources in a drought situation

22. Local coping strategies

  • In the study area, the followingdominant coping strategi


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